Figure 1. Total energy production in Alberta
16000
actual
14000
forecast
12000
Petajoules
Conventional natural gas
10000
8000
6000
Mined and in situ bitumen
4000
Conventional heavy oil
2000
Conventional L&M oil
Coal
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Figure 2
Figure 3. same as 3.23
250.0
actual
forecast
200.0
109m3
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Conventional marketable gas
Process gas from upgrading bitumen
2007
2009
2011
2013
Coalbed methane
Gas from bitumen wells
Figure 4 same as 5.27. Total gas production in Alberta
2015
$450
400
300
200
100
Major Oil Field Discoveries
1947 – Leduc
1948 – Redwater
1949 – Golden Spike
1952 – Bonnie Glen
1953 – Pembina
1957 – Swan Hill
1959 – Judy Creek
1959 – Swan Hill South
1965 - Rainbow
Export Pipelines
1950 – Interprovincial Pipeline (Enbridge)
1953 – Trans Mountain Pipe Line
Major Events Affecting Price
1973 – Oil Embargo
1979 – Iranian Revolution
1980 – Iran / Iraq War
1986 – OPEC Crumbles
1990 – Gulf War
1998 – Asian Econ. Crisis
2001 – 9 / 11
2003 – Iraq War
$400
$350
$300
$250
$200
$150
1938 - Petroleum and Natural Gas Conservation
Board (EUB) created to enforce production
standards
$100
$50
0
1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Alberta Production
Alberta Crude Oil Price
Source: Prices - CAPP Statistical Handbook
Figure 5. Alberta Conventional Crude Oil Production and Price
$0
Cdn$/cubic metre
thoudsand cubic metres per day
EUB Prorationing Plan (restricted production)
$500
Great Canadian Oil
Sands (Suncor)
Startup
Alberta Oil
Sands Project
Startup
Syncrude
Startup
$400
100
$300
$200
50
$100
0
$0
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
Mined Bitumen
1982
1985
1988
SCO Production
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
SCO Price
Figure 6. Alberta mined bitumen and synthetic crude oil
production and price
2006
Cdn$/cubic metre
thousand cubice metres per day
150
100
300
Cold Lake Phases 1-6
Cold Lake Phases 7-13
250
80
First SAGD Production
AEC (EnCana) Foster Ck.
200
60
Am oco (CNRL)
Wolf Lake &
Prim rose Startup
150
40
100
20
50
Shell Peace River Startup
0
0
1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
In Situ Production
Bitumen Price
Figure 7. Alberta in situ bitumen production and price
Cdn$/cubic metres
thousand cubic metres per day
Cold Lake Pilot Production
Hurricanes Katerina and Rita
hit U.S. Gulf Coast
Foothills Pipe Lines built for
gas exports to California and the
mid-western U.S.
1956: TransCanada Pipelines
built to take Alberta gas
to central Canada and the U.S.
200
after debate over its charter in
Parliament
$8
PGT expansion
Regulated gas price
tied to oil prices.
$6
Surplus built up
Surplus gas drives
down prices
150
Price
deregulation
Arbitration awards
price increase
$4
100
Gas prices as a by-product
of oil production. Price less
than replacement cost
$2
50
0
$0
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
Gas production
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Alberta plant gate price
Figure 8. Historical natural gas production and price
2006
$Cdn/GJ
billion cubic metres
250
Late 1998: Northern
Border/TCPL expansion
2000: Alliance Pipeline
140
25
120
100
15
80
60
10
40
5
20
0
0
1971
1976
1981
Gas Processing Plants
1986
1991
Oil Sands Plants
1996
2001
2006
FOB Vancouver (US$/tonne)
Figure 9. Sulphur closing inventories in Alberta and price
US $/tonne
Inventory (million tonnes)
20
million tonnes
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1882
1898 – Expansion of railway network (coal and oil fired steam engines)
and growth of population
1893
Coal remained “King Coal”
until huge reservoirs
of crude oil and natural gas
were discovered
1904
1915
1926
1937
1948
1959
1970
Australian-Japan contract price for thermal coal ( Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics - ABARE)
40
30
20
10
0
0
1981
1992
Subbituminous Bituminous Thermal Bituminous Metallurgical
Australian-Japan contract price for thermal coal
2003
US$ per tonne
Late 1990’s – mine closures
and reduced coal exports
due to depressed coal prices
1970’s – increase in coal-fired electric generation
Late1960’s – Beginning of exports to Japan for steel industry
1960 – Steam rail era ends
1950’s – Crude oil and natural gas replace coal as energy source of choice
1952 – Beginning of change to diesel-electric trains
Figure 10. Historical coal production and price
60
50
70
$US/bbl
65
60
55
50
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Figure 1.1 OPEC crude basket reference price 2006
Nov Dec
100
600
actual
High
500
$US/bbl
400
60
Low
300
40
200
20
100
0
0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago
$US/m 3
80
forecast
100
600
actual
forecast
High
80
$Cdn/bbl
Low
400
60
300
40
200
20
100
0
0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead
$Cdn/m 3
500
100
Cdn$/bbl
80
60
40
20
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Figure 1.5 2006 Average monthly reference prices of Alberta crudes
Light-medium
Heavy
Bitumen
Figure 1.5 2006 average monthly reference prices in Alberta
12
actual
forecast
high
10
$Cdn/gigajoule
8
low
6
4
2
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate
2016
150
actual
forecast
125
$Cdn/MWh
100
75
50
25
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 1.8 Alberta Wholesale Electricity Prices
2016
Percentage
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
9.1
4.2
8.3
7.6
5.5
6.8
7.2
4.1
7.7
7.6
6.3
3.3
2.9
2.7
2004
2005
1.8
1.8
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Real GDP growth
Percentage
6.8
2.9
5.2
1997
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
7.2
7.3
6.6
5.0
1.6
1997
Unemployment rate
1.8
0.9
1998
5.8
5.8
6.4
2.7
2.6
4.7
4.2
2.2
4.0
2001 2002
Inflation rate
2003
4.4
2.2
2.8
1999 2000
2006
2.0
1.9
2004 2005
2006
Prime rate on loans
90
Cents
85
82.5
80
75
88.2
77.0
72.2
70
67.5
67.3
71.6
67.3
63.7
65
64.6
60
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Exchange rate
Figure 1.10 Canadian economic indicators
2005
2006
100
actual
forecast
billions of 1997$
80
60
40
20
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Non-conventional oil extraction and upgrading
Conventional oil and gas extraction
Pipelines, natural gas distribution, storage, electricity generation and transmission lines
Petrochemicals
Government
Residential
Business (non-residential/non-energy)
Figure 1.11 Alberta real investment
ATHABASCA
120.9
PEACE RIVER
4.3
26.6
COLD LAKE
47.6
Figure 2.7.
Production of Bitumen in
Alberta, 2006 103 m3/d
In Situ
Mined Bitumen
100%
Percentage
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Conventional crude oil & pentanes plus
2004
2005
2006
SCO & bitumen
Figure 2.8. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
500
actual
forecast
400
103 m3/d
300
Surface mining
200
100
In situ
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Figure 2.9. Alberta crude bitumen production
2013
2015
80
8000
60
6000
40
4000
20
2000
0
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Producing Wells
Production
Figure 2.10. Total in situ bitumen production and
producing bitumen wells
Production (103 m3/d)
Number of producing wells
10000
300
actual
forecast
103 m3/d
200
Synthetic crude oil
100
Synthetic Crude Oil
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Figure 2.11. Alberta synthetic crude oil production
2015
60
50
million tonnes
40
30
20
Oil Sands Plants – Coke Inventory
Synthetic Crude Oil
10
0
1975
1977 1979
1981 1983
1985
1987 1989
1991
1993 1995
1997 1999
2001
2003 2005
Figure 2.14. Alberta oil sands upgrading coke inventory
500
actual
forecast
400
Nonupgraded
bitumen removals
from Alberta
103 m3/d
300
200
SCO removals from
Synthetic CrudeAlberta
Oil
100
Alberta demand
(mainly SCO)
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Figure 2.15. Alberta demand and disposition of
crude bitumen and SCO
2013
2015
800
700
600
106 m3
500
400
300
Heavy
200
100
Light-medium
0
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Figure 3.1. Remaining established reserves of crude oil
50
40
30
106 m3
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Additions
Revisions
Figure 3.2. Annual changes in conventional crude oil reserves
25
20
106 m3
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
New waterflood
Waterflood revisions
Figure 3.3. Annual changes to waterflood reserves
Total number of pools
Initial reserves
Remaining reserves
(103m3)
(103m3)
(103m3)
Figure 3.4. Distribution of oil reserves by size
Initial established reserves (10 6 m3)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Average
Figure 3.5. Oil pool size by discovery year
1995
2000
Median
2005
1400
1200
Reserves (106 m3)
1000
800
600
400
200
ni
an
n
M
id
dl
e
D
ev
o
on
ia
pp
e
U
M
is
si
ss
rD
ev
ip
p
el
lo
rm
ia
nB
Pe
Initial established reserves
ia
n
y
c
si
Tr
ia
s
si
c
ra
s
Ju
ac
e
Cr
et
w
er
Lo
U
pp
e
rC
re
t
ac
eo
ou
s
us
0
Remaining established reserves
Figure 3.7. Geological distribution of reserves of
conventional crude oil
182
157
11
Fig. 3.8.
Regional distribution
of Alberta oil reserves
(106 m3)
2006 Initial established reserves
2730.8 106 m3
2006 Remaining established reserves
250.1 106 m3
20
Remaining established oil reserves (10 6 m3)
1400
Year 1970
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
6
3000
3
Cumulative production (10 m )
Figure 3.9. Alberta’s remaining established oil Reserves
versus cumulative production
3500
3200
Ultimate potential (3130)
3000
actual
forecast
2800
Actual as of December 31, 2006
106m3
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Figure 3.10. Growth in initial established reserves
of crude oil
33 26
269
Figure 3.11.
Alberta successful
oil well drilling By
modified PSAC area
2005 Wells Drilled = 2172
2006 Wells Drilled = 2146
21
222
Figure 3.12.
Oil wells placed
on production, 2006
by modified PSAC area
Total wells = 1956
17.2
[109]
12.3
[77]
8.7
[55]
Figure 3.13.
Initial operating day
rates of oil wells placed
on production, 2006
by modified PSAC area
m3/day/well
[bbl/day/well]
6.3
[39]
11.5
[72]
5.0
[32]
7.6
[48]
160
140
103 m3/day
120
100
PSAC 8
80
PSAC 7
PSAC 5
60
PSAC 4
40
PSAC 3
20
PSAC 2
PSAC 1
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Figure 3.14. Conventional crude oil production by modified
PSAC area
2006
250
40000
200
30000
150
20000
100
10000
50
0
Production (10 3 m3/d)
Number of wells
50000
0
1973
1977
1981
1985
Producing wells
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
Production
Figure 3.15. Total crude oil production and producing oil wells
200
20000
160
15000
120
10000
80
5000
40
m3/d
Number of wells
25000
0
0
0.0-2.0
2.1-5.0
5.1-8.0
8.1-20.0
20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0
100.1+
3
Production category (m /d)
Producing wells
Average rate
Figure 3.16. Crude oil well productivity in 2006
160
Production (103m3/d)
140
120
100
Pre-1997
6%
80
11%
7%
40
7%
4%
4%
5%
2%
3%
5%
20
45%
60
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Figure 3.17. Total conventional crude oil production by
drilled year
2006
%
of total
production
from oil
wells
4000
thousand barrels per day
3500
3000
Texas onshore
2500
2000
1500
Alberta crude oil
1000
500
Louisiana onshore
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Figure 3.18. Comparison of crude oil production
$100
5000
forecast
4000
$80
3000
$60
2000
$40
1000
$20
$0
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Wells placed on production
2009
2011
2013
2015
WTI @ Chicago
Figure 3.19. WTI crude oil price and well activity
US$/bbl
Number of wells
actual
180
actual
forecast
Production (103m3/d)
150
120
Heavy
90
60
30
Light-medium
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Figure 3.20. Alberta daily production of crude oil
2013
2015
35000
Refinery capacities (m3/d)
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Imperial
Edmonton
Petro-Canada
Edmonton
Shell
Scotford
Husky
Lloydminster
Parkland
Bowden
Figure 3.21. Capacity and location of Alberta refineries
180
actual
forecast
150
103m3/d
120
90
Crude oil removals from
Alberta
60
30
Alberta demand
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Figure 3.22. Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil
600
actual
forecast
500
103m3/d
400
Non upgraded bitumen
300
SCO
200
100
Pentanes plus
Heavy
0
1997
Light-medium
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Figure 3.23. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent
2015
100%
actual
forecast
Percentage
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Conventional crude oil & pentanes plus
2011
2013
2015
SCO & bitumen
Figure 3.24. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production
18
16
actual
forecast
14
109 m3
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Figure 4.4 Coalbed methane production forecast from CBM wells
180
160
140
109 m3
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1974
1979
1984
Additions
1989
1994
1999
2004
Production
Figure 5.1. Annual reserves additions and production of
conventional marketable gas
2000
1600
109 m3
1200
800
400
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Figure 5.2. Remaining conventional marketable gas reserves
140
120
100
109 m3
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1999
2000
New
2001
2002
2003
Development
2004
2005
2006
Revisions
Figure 5.3. New, development, and revisions to conventional
marketable gas reserves
Total number of pools
Initial reserves
Remaining reserves
(106m3)
(109m3)
(109m3)
Figure 5.5. Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size
Established reserves (10 6 m3)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Average
Median
Figure 5.6. Conventional gas pools by size and discovery year
2000
1200
800
400
ni
an
n
M
id
dl
e
De
vo
on
ia
rD
ev
Up
pe
M
is
si
ss
ip
p
llo
rm
ia
nBe
Pe
Initial marketable reserves
ia
n
y
c
si
Tr
ia
s
si
c
ra
s
Ju
ac
e
Cr
et
we
r
Lo
rC
re
t
ac
eo
ou
s
us
0
Up
pe
109 m3
1600
Remaining marketable reserves
Figure 5.7. Geological distribution of conventional marketable
gas reserves
2000
1600
1200
109 m3
Sweet natural gas
800
400
Sour natural gas
0
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Figure 5.8. Remaining conventional marketable reserves of
sweet and sour gas
2006
35
30
80%
40
90
60%
100
50
60
40%
20%
25
Percentage of component
10
35
15
10
100%
0%
Methane
Ethane
Removed at field plants
Propane
Butanes
Removed at straddle plants
Pentanes plus
Marketable gas
Figure 5.9. Expected recovery of conventional natural gas
components
7000
6000
Ultimate potential based on 2004 study
109 m3
5000
4000
3000
Remaining reserves
2000
1000
0
1973
Production
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
Figure 5.11. Conventional gas ultimate potential
2000
2003
2006
4500
4000
Gas in place (10 9 m3)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Upper
Cretaceous
Lower
Cretaceous
Ultimate potential
Jurassic
Triassic
Mississippian
Devonian
Discovered gas in place
Figure 5.13. Conventional gas in place by geological period
14000
12000
Number of wells
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1996
1997
1998
Drilled
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Connected
Figure 5.15. Successful conventional gas wells drilled and
connected
200.0
180.0
%
of total
production
160.0
140.0
109 m3
120.0
PSAC 8
2%
PSAC 7
PSAC 6
4%
3%
PSAC 5
12%
PSAC 4
4%
PSAC 3
20%
PSAC 2
39%
PSAC 1
6%
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
Gas from oil wells
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
10%
2006
Connection year
Figure 5.18. Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area
120000
250
200
80000
150
60000
100
40000
50
20000
0
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
Producing wells
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Production
Figure 5.19. Conventional marketable gas production and
number of producing wells
Production (10 9 m3)
Number of producing wells
100000
70000
400
300
50000
40000
200
30000
20000
100
10000
0
0
0.0-2.0
2.1-5.0
5.1-8.0
8.1-20.0
20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0
Production category (10 3m3/d)
Producing wells
Average rate
Figure 5.20. Natural gas well productivity in 2006
100.1+
Production (10 3 m3/d)
Number of producing wells
60000
200
180
Production (109m3)
160
12
140
1997
16
120
12
Pre - 1997
100
9
6
80
6
5
4
3
3
60
40
24
20
Gas from oil wells
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Connection year
Figure 5.21 Raw gas production by connection year
2006
%
of total
production
from gas
wells
12
10
Tcf
8
Texas onshore
6
4
Louisiana onshore
2
Alberta
0
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981 1986
1991
1996
2001
Figure 5.22. Comparison of raw natural gas production
2006
25.0
Productivity (103 m3/d)
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Alberta
Alberta excluding PSAC Area 3
PSAC Area 3 (Southeastern Alberta)
Figure 5.23 Average initial natural gas well productivity
in Alberta
20000
$10
forecast
16000
$8
12000
$6
8000
$4
4000
$2
0
$0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
New well connections
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Alberta plant gate price
Figure 5.24. Alberta natural gas well activity and price
$Cdn/GJ
Number of wells
actual
200
7.1
forecast
150
5.3
100
3.6
50
1.8
0
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Figure 5.25. Conventional marketable gas production
2015
Tcf
109m3
actual
14000
actual
forecast
12000
10000
106m3
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Process gas from upgrading bitumen
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Gas from bitumen wells
Figure 5.26. Gas production from bitumen upgrading and
bitumen wells used for oil sands operations
250.0
actual
forecast
200.0
109m3
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Conventional marketable gas
Process gas from upgrading bitumen
2007
2009
2011
Coalbed methane
Gas from bitumen wells
Figure 5.27. Total gas production in Alberta
2013
2015
2000
1500
106m3
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
Jan
Feb
Mar
2004
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2005
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2006
Figure 5.28. Alberta natural gas storage injection/withdrawal
volumes
60.00
actual
forecast
50.00
Reprocessing plant shrinkage
Transportation
109 m3
40.00
Electricity generation
30.00
Other industrial
Industrial - petrochemical
20.00
Industrial – oil sands
10.00
Commercial
Residential
0.00
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Figure 5.31. Alberta marketable gas demand by sector
2015
400
109 m3
300
200
100
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Figure 5.32. Historical volumes “available for permitting”
30
forecast
actual
25
109 m3
20
In Situ Cogeneration
15
In Situ
10
Mining and Upgrading
Cogeneration
5
Mining and Upgrading
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Figure 5.33. Purchased natural gas demand for oil sands operations
35
actual
forecast
30
109 m3
25
20
Purchased gas
15
Produced gas from
bitumen
10
Process gas from
upgrading*
5
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Figure 5.34. Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading
* Some 1.0 109m3 of process gas not shown on this chart is used for electricity generation (2007-2016).
Process Gas for
Electricity Cogeneration
40
actual
35
forecast
109 m3
30
25
Purchased Gas for
Electricity Cogeneration
20
Purchased Gas for
In situ Recovery
Produced Gas from
Bitumen Wells
for In situ Recovery
15
10
Process Gas for
Mining/Upgrading
5
Purchased Gas for
Mining/Upgrading
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Figure 5.35. Total Purchased, Process and Produced Gas for Oil
Sands Production
250.0
10.7
actual
forecast
7.1
150.0
5.3
100.0
3.6
50.0
1.8
Tcf
109m3
200.0
25%
24%
28%
36%
44%
0
0.0
1997
1999
2001
Residential demand
2003
2005
Commercial demand
2007
2009
2011
Other Alberta demand
2013
2015
Alberta gas removals
Figure 5.36. Total marketable gas production and demand
150
Liquid volume (10 6 m3)
120
90
60
30
0
Ethane
Propane
Reserves
Butanes
Pentanes Plus
Annual production
Figure 6.1. Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be
extracted from conventional gas and 2006 annual production
Established reserves (10 6 m3)
250
200
150
100
50
0
1994
1995
1996
Ethane
1997
1998
1999
Propane
2000
2001
2002
Butanes
2003
2004
2005
2006
Pentanes plus
Figure 6.2. Remaining established reserves of conventional
natural gas liquids
Alberta Gas &
NGL Market
R
Other Canadian
Markets
Battery
Battery
Gas
Pools
Raw Gas
R
Field
Plants
Marketable Gas
R
Straddle Plants
- NGL Mix
- Ethane
- Propane
- Butanes
- Pentanes Plus
US Markets
Sulphur
Alliance High Pressure Pipeline
Chicago, IL
-
Oil Pools
NGL Mix
Ethane
Propane
Butanes
Pentanes Plus
Crude
Oil
Refineries
Extraction Plant
- Ethane
- Propane
- Butanes
- Pentanes Plus
Fractionation Plants
- Ethane
- Propane
- Butanes
- Pentanes Plus
Propane
Butanes
Figure 6.3. Schematic of Alberta NGL flows
Dry Gas
Alberta
Border
Dry or rich gas
NGL Mix
Spec product
Rich gas
R Point royalties collected
Figure 6.4. Ethane supply and demand
103m3/d
100
Actual
Forecast
80
60
40
20
0
1997
1999
2001
T otal Demand
* excludes solvent f lood volumes
2003
2005
Alberta Demand*
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Potential Supply from Conventional Gas
Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural
gas and demand
40
103m3/d
Actual
Forecast
30
20
10
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Supply
* excludes solvent flood volumes
2007
2009
2011
Alberta Demand*
2013
2015
Figure 6.6. Butanes supply from natural gas and demand
103m3/d
25
Actual
Forecast
20
15
10
5
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Supply
* excludes solvent flood volumes
2007
2009
2011
Alberta Demand*
2013
2015
Figure 6.7. Pentanes supply from natural gas and demand
for diluent
103m3/d
40
Actual
Forecast
30
demand met by alternative
sources and types of diluent
20
10
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Supply
* excludes solvent flood volumes
2007
2009
2011
Alberta Demand*
2013
2015
10
actual
forecast
8
Refining and upgrading
106 t
6
4
2
Sour gas
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Figure 7.1. Sources of sulphur production
2011
2013
2015
Production (million tonnes)
8
6
4
2
0
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Figure 7.2. Sulphur production from gas processing plants in
Alberta
1000
800
103 t
600
400
200
0
2003
Syncrude
2004
2005
Suncor
Figure 7.3. Sulphur production from oil sands
2006
Shell
5000
4000
103 t
3000
2000
1000
0
Australia
2003
Brazil
China
2004
New
Zealand
South
Africa
2005
Figure 7.4. Canadian sulphur offshore exports
Others
2006
9
actual
8
forecast
Production
Stockpile
Withdrawal
7
Stockpile
millions of tonnes
Total Demand
6
Removed from Alberta
5
4
3
2
1
Alberta demand
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Figure 7.5. Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta
2013
2015
50,000,000
40,000,000
Bituminous metallurgical
tonnes
30,000,000
Bituminous thermal
20,000,000
10,000,000
Subbituminous
0
1874
1885
1896
1907
1918
1929
1940
Figure 8.1 Total coal production
1951
1962
1973
1984
1995
2006
50
actual
45
forecast
million tonnes
40
35
30
Metallurgical bituminous
25
Thermal bituminous
20
Subbituminous
15
10
5
0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Figure 8.3 Alberta marketable coal production
2013
2015
20
actual
forecast
Thousand MW
15
10
5
0
1998
2000
Coal
2002
2004
2006
Natural Gas
2008
2010
Hydro
2012
2014
2016
Other
Figure 9.1. Alberta electricity generating capacity
100
actual
forecast
Thousand GWh
75
50
25
0
1998
Coal
2000
2002
2004
2006
Natural Gas
2008
2010
Hydro
Figure 9.2. Alberta electricity generation
2012
2014
2016
Other
3000
2500
GWh
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Deliveries
Figure 9.3. Alberta electricity transfers
2004
2005
Receipts
2006
100
actual
forecast
Thousand GWh
75
50
25
0
1998
2000
Industrial
Commercial
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Industrial on site
Residential (including agriculture)
Figure 9.4. Alberta electricity consumption by sector
30
actual
forecast
25
Potential generation
Thousand GWh
Demand
20
15
10
5
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
9.5. Alberta oil sands electricity generation and demand
* Industrial – oil sands historical data on electricity demand was estimated using an assumption of 10 kWh/bbl for in situ oil sands projects
that do not operate cogeneration units.
2016