From Aquino to Obama:
Presidential Time in the
Philippines and the U.S.
Mark Thompson,
Southeast Asian Research Centre (SEARC) and
Department of Asian & International Studies,
City University of Hong Kong
Presentation to APISA 5
Regional Integration in Europe and Asia
in the 21st Century
24-25 November 2011
Overseas Chinese University
Taichung, Taiwan
Does anybody know
what time it is?
• Stephen Skowronek’s presidential “time”
– Timing of presidency
– Relationship to predecessors
– Recurrent cycles
• More structuralist
– Upends Neutstadt’s personal model
– Ideology, interests, institutional arrangements
– Position within ‘regime’ key
You can’t compare!!
• The “1st” to “3rd World” – a sacrilege!
– Imperial power to a post-colonial society - absurd!
– Spanish King with a German Hanoverian - nein!
– Apples and mangos - a no go!
– (Well, at least the same national bird)
But what if we did it anyway?
• “Test” patterns of presidentialism
– in varied contexts
– strength and relevance of institutional variable
• Turns largest area specialist literature
– into generalizable social science
• Philippine colonialism and presidential model
Presidential regimes
• Formal institutions
– Also social bases (e.g. party alignments)
• Regime building
– Reconstructionist
• Orthodox innovation (or exhaustion)
– (Dis)articulation
• Opposition
– Preemption
What time is it for Aquino?
• Mother’s son
– Takes up reformist narrative
• Arroyo’s failed presidency as foil
– Corrupt contrast
• Performance not stellar
– But narrative solid
Aquino as “articulator”
• Revives reformist “narrative”
– After Arroyo’s “apostasy”
• A good dynast
– As opposed to Arroyo’s cynical dynasticism
• Key is belief in his sincerity
– But how long will that serve him
– Regime renewal or exhaustion?
Aquino and Ramos
• Ramos considered best post-Marcos president
– Implements reforms after instability
• Aquino brings stability too
– After illegitimacy of Arroyo
• Ramos “success” doesn’t help poor
– Estrada his populist successor
– If reformism fails
– populism as alternative regime?
And Obama?
• Long unclear if was a “reconstructionist”
– Or preemptive president
• Narrative ambiguous
– “change we can believe in”
– Attempt to found a new regime?
– Or create bi-partistanship?
• Preemptive turn
– Welfarism forgotten
“Mongrel” politics
• Obama can’t accept prevailing regime
– But opposing it too much risks implosion
– As massive mid-term losses suggest
• Now moving to political center
– While portraying Republicans as extremist
• Tea Party an effort to revive Reaganism
– But extremism makes preemption easier
– Key to Obama’s re-election
Obama and Clinton
• Both ran “negative campaigns”
– Against failing of Bush administrations
– no clear positive alternative
• Both overestimated their mandate
– Backlash against “socialist” health care
– Republican victories reaffirming the “faith”
• But Republicans overplayed hand before
– Also against Obama?
– Or will Republican regime be revived?
Ideology
• Foundational ideology
– Anti-statism in U.S.
– Reformism in Philippines
• Preemptive strategies
– Smart government (Clinton)
– Populism (Estrada, FPJ)
• End of regime possible
– Radicalization of Republicans
– Corruption of reformers
Interests
• Neo-liberalism in U.S.
– Big business/Wall street
– Religious right
– “Tea party” unites them
• Reformism in the Philippines
– Makati Business Club
– Catholic Church
– Middle Class activists unite them
Institutional arrangements
• Changes in U.S. system in new “regime”
–
–
–
–
Conservative supermajority in Congress
Conservative dominance in Supreme Court
Increasing polarization of political parties
Media politicized
• And post-Marcos Philippines
–
–
–
–
Multi-party system
House shifts, Senate independence
Judicial check
Strong military influence
Performance v. Narrative
• Obama
– Strong record
– Competent cabinet
– Weak narrative
– Uncertain re-election
• Aquino
– Weak performance
– Administration infighting
– Strong narrative
Same, same or different?
• US regimes since Jefferson
– Pre-Marcos, Marcos, post-Marcos
• Aquino revives reformism
– Obama pre-empts Reaganism
• Estrada’s fall through coup
– Nixon’s institutionalized
• Philippine parties more fluid
– US parties increasingly ideological
– Behind “clientelism” are narratives
El demonio de las comparaciones
• Rizal sees ‘spectre of comparison’
– Despite socio-economic gap
– And US Philippines cultural differences
– Presidentialism ‘bedeviled’ by similar logic
• Presidency structured
– Limits presidents’ choices
– to articulation of/antagonism towards
– regime narrative
– ‘Performance’ as ‘role playing’
Thanks/Salamat
And I was walking down the street one day
A pretty lady looked at me and said her diamond watch
had stopped cold dead
And I said
Does anybody really know what time it is
Does anybody really care
If so I can't imagine why
about time
We've all got time enough to cry
Oh no, no, no, no, no, no nooooooooo