Managing Trade Hostility with
the New School of
US China Relations
John Milligan-Whyte
Chairman
Center For Aemrica-China Partnership
How can President Obama
1. Successfully launch a new era of partnership?
2. Balance the American and Chinese economies?
3. Stop America’s unsustainable accumulation of
debt and long-deficits?
4. Prevent the devaluation of the US dollar?
5. Prevent the financial, economic and other crises
forcing the Chinese government to tire of buying
US government debt?
The Architecture of Anarchy
The initial housing finance problem and
resulting chain reaction of problems caused
systemic imbalance exacerbated by further
borrowing and spending
US $ 594 T
_________ = US$ 148.5 Tx? = X
25%
Theoretical Debt vs GDP + 23 Years
“China’s decision to accumulate roughly $ 2,000 bn in foreign
currency reserves was, in my view, a blunder. Now it has a choice. If
it wants its claims on the US to be safe, it must facilitate an
adjustment in the global balance of payments. If it and other surplus
counties wish to run huge surpluses and accumulate vast financial
claims, they should expect defaults. They cannot have both safe
foreign assets and huge surpluses. They must choose between them.
It may seem unfair. But whoever said life was fair?”
Martin
Wolf
“ It is in Beijing’s interests to lend Geithner a hand”
Financial Times, June 9, 2009
“China caused the economic crisis”
March 2005
May 2007 and January 2009
“…launching a new era of partnership…”
President Obama, May 24, 2009
“President Barack Obama seeks to alter the modalities of
strategic dialogue to pursue a broader strategic agenda in
order to seek solutions to the global financial and security
crises, climate change, and holdover issues from the Bush
administration such as the Democratic People's Republic
of Korea, Iran non-proliferation, value of the yuan, trade
deficit, intellectual property rights and human rights.One
challenge for the new administration will be to prioritize
the issues on the agenda, although all of them must be
pursued simultaneously.”
David Shambaugh, Brookings Institute, May 2008
Principles of Peaceful Coexistence Principles of Conflict
1. Mutual respect for the
sovereignty and territorial
integrity,
2. Mutual nonaggression,
3. Non-interference in each
other’s internal affairs,
4. Equality and mutual
benefit, and
5. Peaceful coexistence.
1. Fairness Hypocrisy
2. Believe and Behave as I
Do Intolerance
3. Do as I say, Not as I Do
Immoral Authority
4. Do as I Say Arrogance
5. We are Better than You
Arrogance
6. My Country Right or
Wrong Bias
7. The Passion for Conflict,
Power and Harming
Others
“Facts and Law in the Case”
or Fairness Hypocrisy
• In one of his first major decisions on trade policy,
President Obama opted Friday to impose a tariff on tires
from China, a move that fulfills his campaign promise to
"crack down" on imports that unfairly undermine
American workers but risks angering the nation's secondlargest trading partner.
• "The president sent the message that we expect others to
live by the rules, just as we do," Leo W. Gerard, president
of the union, said Friday night.
• The President decided to remedy the clear disruption to
the U.S. tire industry based on the facts and the law in this
case," the White House said.
New Era Of Partnership Requires
A New Mindset
The New School of
US-China Relations
is the Shared
Blueprint
The New School Of US-China Relations
Provides the Essential Shared Blueprint for the
New Era of Partnership’s Success
resident Obama can personally decide and communicate
to President Hu Jintao whether he believes that:
merica must reciprocate the reforms Deng Xiaoping
implemented by “opening up” to Chinese
investment in order to invigorate America’s
economy and balance America and China’s trade
and economies; and
merica must reciprocate by implementing the
Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, including noninterference in China’s internal affairs in matters
such as Tibet, Taiwan and its definition of human
rights.
1.
President Obama can decide
whether he believes that for
America to win China must
lose?
2.
Is it necessary for America’s
economic and national security
to prepare for war with China?
How does war with China protect
America?
3.
President Obama can decide
whether he believes
Americans’ conventional
mindset and strategies
undermine Americans’
economic and national
security?
4.
Does safeguarding America’s
economic and national security
require that America reciprocate
and base its economic and foreign
polices and military strategies
toward China on the Principles of
Peaceful
Coexistence?
5.
President Obama can decide whether he
believes China will unilaterally abandon its
implementation of the Principles of Peaceful
Coexistence
during
2009
2017?
6.
President Obama can decide that America’s
economic and national security requires that
he inspire a collaboration of civilization
mindset and strategies beginning with the
Chinese civilization because China has
unilaterally implemented the Principles of
Peaceful Coexistence towards America and
all nations for 30 years.
7.
President Obama can decide whether he
believes it is possible to balance the
American and Chinese economies
without permitting reciprocal economic
globalization?
8.
President Obama can decide whether he
believes that without reciprocal economic
globalization being permitted, American
states, cities and companies that are benefiting
from China’s economic growth will be
negatively
affected
unnecessarily.
Economic Crisis Unemployment
9.
President Obama can decide
whether he believes that American
companies that do not have
profitable China Strategies will be
able to remain profitable anywhere?
New School of US-China Relations
is essential to successfully manage
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Environmentally Sustainable Growth
A New Era of Partnership
Global Financial & Economic Crises
Balancing Economic Growth
All Nations’ Security Crises
Failing and Failed States