The State Chancellery
Position of the
NDS “Moldova 2020”
in the national strategic planning
system
Mr. Ruslan Codreanu – director of
Policy, Strategic Planning and Foreign Aid Department
Chişinău, 2012
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The Goal
 Economic growth for sustainable development
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Development aid: will not stay forever
Growth matters: fiscal space for social policies
Consumption led growth: not sustainable

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Remittances may dry out as migrants establish
homes abroad
Not fast enough to ensure convergence
 Learning tips from EGPRSP & NDS: less is
more
 Longer term vision is key
Development Priorities
 How we came about Education
setting priorities:
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Better Roads
Growth diagnostics:
find the bottlenecks Access to finance
Fix problems and not
Business climate
sectors
Seek externalities
Energy efficiency
Generate impact
Pension reform
 7 national priorities
Rule of law
Participatory solutions
July
•Design process
•Set goal
•Validate priorities
SPC
August
Working
groups
•Establish baseline
•Define targets for 2020
•Define milestones for
2015
•Elaborate vision
December
•Online consultations
•Roundtable discussions
•Public debates
•Feedback
Public
consultations
March 2012
Approval
•Government approval
•Parliamentary approval
Development partners’ contribution
 67 proposals from Joint Donor Group and
WB;
 Important issues were mainstreamed through
the “Moldova 2020”, as for example:
Migration, Gender, Health, Environment, etc.
 Important EC proposals regarding
reintegration of the country and correlation to
the Association Agenda were included in the
draft.
 One section on links with other national
strategies and policies was added.
EXPECTED IMPACT
EDUCATION
1) Migration of young graduates will be
reduced by 50%,
2) Graduates will be at an aggregate level by
20% more productive.
Under such circumstances, the annual
growth rate of GDP over the medium term
may be 0.6-0.9% higher compared to the
scenario "without reforms".
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EXPECTED IMPACT
BETTER ROADS
 MDL 2.5 billion is wasted annually on extra
repairs and fuel on road segments planned
for rehabilitation.
 Therefore, saved money can be invested for
productive purposes and thus can increase
the stock of fixed capital.
Annual GDP growth will be additionally
increased by 0.3% due to fuel savings and
repairs only. But the overall likely effect will
be even greater.
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EXPECTED IMPACT
ACCESS TO FINANCE
1) Up to 50% increase in financing volumes
through the banking and non-banking
sectors as a percentage of GDP.
Additional investment will be reflected in an
annual GDP growth of up to 0.5-0.7% higher
compared to the scenario without the
implementation of this priority.
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EXPECTED IMPACT
BUSINESS CLIMATE
1) Regulatory constraints and unjustified costs
will be eliminated,
2) Enhanced investor confidence in the
business environment in Republic of
Moldova.
Increased trade volumes, including exports
as a share of GDP, which have an positive
impact on economic development and
poverty reduction.
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EXPECTED IMPACT
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
1) Strengthened energy security;
2) The intermediate production in the energy and
transport sectors only amounts to over MDL 17
billion;
3) The energy efficiency increase by up to 10%.
Annual savings by 2020 will account for
approximately MDL 830 million in current prices.
GDP growth rate over medium and long term
will be higher by at least 0.2% compared to the
base case scenario, only on account of
savings achieved.
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EXPECTED IMPACT
PENSION REFORM
1) A sustainable pension system will have
positive repercussions on the national
economy, reducing the extent of salaries
paid under the table, shadow economy, etc.
The share of pensioners below the absolute
poverty line will decrease by 2 p.p. over the
scenario ”without reforms” by 2020.
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EXPECTED IMPACT
JUSTICE
1) The estimates of the volume of bribes paid
in 2011 from the enterprises’ revenues are
about MDL 390 million.
2) The lower level of corruption would result in
investing a part of this money for productive
purposes, thus generating an annual GDP
growth by at least 0.1% annually.
Moldova’s attractiveness will increase
foreign investments and associated new
technologies, thus inducing important
collateral effects.
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OVERALL EXPECTED IMPACT
GDP GROWTH, MDL MILLION AT 2000 PRICES
50,000
45,000
40,000
Base case
Scenariu de
scenario
Bază
35,000
30,000
Moldova
2020
25,000
20,000
15,000
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
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OVERALL EXPECTED IMPACT
REDUCTION OF THE POVERTY RATE, %
25.0
20.0
Base
Scenariu
case
de
Bază
scenario
15.0
10.0
Moldova
2020
5.0
0.0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
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“Moldova 2020” operationalization
process
CONSOLIDATED ACTION PLAN
Measures*
MOLDOVA 2020
Priorities
Time bound
actions
MTBF / LAW ON STATE BUDGET
Objectives &
indicators
* Measures = groups of
related actions
Programs
Indicators
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”Moldova 2020”, Integrated planning, monitoring and
reporting cycle
Planning and prioritization
Implementation, monitoring &
reporting
Moldova 2020
priorities
Consolidated Action Plan
Consolidated Action
Plan
(Implementation)
Measures & Actions
Technical Assistance
(Implementation)
MTBF
Resourcing
Annual Budget Programs
(Implementation)
Mid-term evaluation report
Quarterly & annual reporting against actions
Annual reporting against indicators
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Follow-up Actions
 Monitoring and evaluation
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Yearly monitoring
2015: interim evaluation
2020: final evaluation
 Integrate into the strategic planning
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Influence the Strategic Development Programs
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Update the Government Action Plan
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Inform the Medium Term Expenditure Framework
 Maintain awareness
The national strategic planning system
NDS “Moldova 2020”
Government’s
Program of activities
Consolidated actions plan
Annual authority action
plan
Sectoral/ cross
sectoral strategies
SDP
MTBF
Annual budget
MTEF COVERAGE
Education
Health care
1st stage, MTEF 2003-2005
Social Protection
Agriculture
2nd stage, MTEF 2007-2009
Culture
Tourism
3rd stage, MTEF 2008-2010
Defence
Justice
Science
Environment protection
Road and transportation
4th stage, MTEF 2009-2011
Correctional institutions
Sport and youth
Energy
Quality Infrastructure
6th stage, MTBF 2013-2015
Construction
Informational technologies and
communication
Public order and civil protection
6th stage (piloting), MTBF 2013-2015
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MTEF process
December
• MF elaborates
the instructions
for the MTBF
• SC establishes
the priorities for
the next MBTF
MF, CS
January
February
Working
groups
• Working groups
analyze the main
budgetary aspects
• elaborate SES,
• Set the expenditure
cap for resources
for each sector
March
• MF prepareres
the final draft
and sends it to
the SC
MF
April
May
Government
• Government
approval
• Presented to
the Parliament
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