From Douglas fir to Dungeness crab: Land use change and ecosystem services in Hood Canal, WA J. Toft, M. Marsik, G. Spiridonov, D. Sutherland, J. Burke, M. Carey, A. Guerry, P. Levin, M. Plummer, M. Ruckelshaus When do land-based activities affect the success of marine resource management? freshwater water quality Simple models for application in the 3 systems? oysters crab and fish The InVEST Tool Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs • • • • • • • Water Yield and Scarcity Reservoir Hydropower Production Freshwater Purification: Nutrient Retention Sediment Retention Avoided dredging and water quality regulation Managed Timber Production Crop Pollination • • • • • • • • Renewable energy: waves Coastal Vulnerability & Protection Aquaculture: finfish & shellfish Aesthetic quality Fisheries Recreation Habitat risk assessment Marine water quality http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/ freshwater Water Yield Model Annual Values: Precipitation Potential Evapotranspiration LU Tables: Rooting Depth Plant ET coefficient Water Demand Snapshot: Land Cover Available Water Content Soil Depth Topography Watersheds Sub-Watersheds 2006 Average Annual Discharge Compared To USGS and WADOE gauge observations Subwatershed DuckabushRiverBrinnon Hamma Hamma near Eldon SkokomishRiverPotlatch BigBeefCreekatmouth LittleQuilceneatMouth Source USGS Daily Years 2006 USGS Daily 1951-1971 USGS Daily 2006 USGS Daily 2006 WA Dept Ecy Daily 2006 BigQuilceneRiveratmouth WA Dept Ecy Daily 2006 DosewallipsRiveratBrinnon WA Dept Ecy Daily 2007-2011 N-S 0.99 -0.46 0.99 0.19 0.67 0.60 -0.73 Nutrient Model: Total Nitrogen and Phosphorus Nitrogen, Total Subwatershed Big Quilcene at mouth Duckabush Brinnon Skokomish Potlatch Big Beef at mouth Years 1999-2010 2006 2006 2006 Difference 72.880 0.184 79.663 7.209 Phosphorus, Total Subwatershed Duckabush Brinnon Skokomish Potlatch Big Beef at mouth Years 1972-2010 1960-2010 2004-2010 Difference 57.245 90.271 58.006 water quality Physical transport model Physical transport model ADM001 (DoE) • 2-Layer Box Model, 6 Regions • Based on Babson et al. (2006), but rewritten in MATLAB for more general use • 6 boxes in HC, 7 rivers • IC’s: from MoSSea • BC’s: from ADM001 DoE station Hans (ORCA) Big Quilcene Little Quilcene Dosewallips Duckabush Hamma Hamma Skokomish Big Beef Creek Biogeochemical Cycling NPZDO modeling: Oxygen is added in proportional to nutrient uptake (Banas et al. 2009) or see: http://faculty.washington.edu/banasn/models/lynch/ Pacific oysters Pacific Oyster Production Model $: Commercial and Recreational Dungeness crab Inputs Spatial structure of the population Fisheries Outputs Catch, harvest rates/strategies Numbers of crab harvested Life history details Commercial and Recreational Value of harvest Age-structure, survival rates, fecundity, spawner/recruit, immigration rates Economics Price-per-pound, fixed & variable costs freshwater water quality Pacific oysters Dungeness crab • Eastern oysters • Blue crab • Striped bass • Pacific oysters • Dungeness crab • Pacific salmon (sps TBD) • Eastern oysters • Blue crab • Red drum Uptake?