The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Sociology
General Comprehensive Examination in Demography
October 2012
Section A. Fertility and Family
Please answer one (1) of A1 and A2.
A1. Describe and explain the decoupling of marriage and childbearing that has occurred in the
United States over the past 40 years. What is the current rate of nonmarital childbearing in the
U.S.? What are the dominant explanations of this decoupling of marriage and parenthood, and
why are certain demographic groups more affected by this decoupling?
A2. Falling fertility rates and below-replacement fertility are problems for most modernized
countries, and even the U.S. is dependent on high immigrant birth rates to achieve replacement
fertility. Describe the factors that are associated with below-replacement fertility. What policy
measures and cultural norms help alleviate low fertility? Which norms and policies are
associated with very low fertility? Do you think these low rates constitute a “crisis”?
Section B. Health and Mortality
Please answer one (1) of B1 and B2.
B1. Define the epidemiologic transition. What are the key patterns of mortality change that
characterize the epidemiologic transition? Further, evaluate the stages of the epidemiologic
transition as discussed in the literature by Omran, Olshansky, and others. How can we as a
research community use the concept of the epidemiologic transition to best make sense of longterm mortality changes within and across societies?
B2. In a now classic paper, Link and Phelan (1995) introduced the idea of socioeconomic status
as a "fundamental cause of disease" to sociologists. What did Link and Phelan mean by the
concept of fundamental cause? What implications has this concept had on research related to
socioeconomic status and health/mortality? Provide examples. Finally, if socioeconomic status is
a fundamental cause of disease/health/mortality, can socioeconomic differences in
disease/health/mortality be reduced or even eliminated? If so, how so? If not, why not?
Section C. Migration and Spatial Distribution
Please answer one (1) of C1 and C2.
C1. Evaluate the following assertions(s): There is an emerging demographic crisis in Southern
and Eastern Europe and it is as much a product of urbanization as of low fertility.
C3. Define immigrant selectivity and explain why it is important when studying immigrant
outcomes in the United States in the following areas: a) education, b) health, c) fertility, d) labor
markets? Choose two of these areas and describe what has been done to address the effect of
immigrant selectivity, and what the empirical findings are in each of the two areas of research.
Section D. Methods
Please answer one (1) of D1 and D2.
D1. In a 2006 comps question about the reproduction of penguins, it was stated that the
females lay only one egg each year. Penguins are serially monogamous, that is during a
given year they will mate and nest with only one other penguin of the opposite sex. Both
parents are essential to the successful gestation, laying, and hatching of the single egg
(since the father sits on the egg while the mother goes off to get food). In this
modification of the problem, assume: i) females will lay their first egg three months
before their fourth birthday; ii) mortality is the same for males and females; iii) the
probability of surviving the first year of life after the egg is hatched is 0.8 (1q0=0.2); iv)
the probability of surviving the next three years of life is 0.85 (3q1=0.15); v) the
probability of surviving any year after reaching exact age 4 is 0.8 (1qx=0.2); vi) the
probability that the egg will hatch (result in a live birth) is 0.90 if both parents survive the
gestation and incubation period (3 months total); vii) the sex ratio at hatching is 1 to 1;
viii) every surviving female penguin of reproductive age is able to find a male with
whom to mate; ix) no penguins survive beyond their 30th birthday. Mating takes place in
May, and eggs are laid in early June, and hatching takes place in August.
Based on the above information:
a) Sketch the lx curve for either or both sexes.
b) Calculate life expectancy for either or both sexes.
c) For the species to be viable, under the above assumptions, how long would the female
reproductive period have to last? In other words, at what age would a female lay her last
egg if the Net Reproduction Rate were 1.0?
Be sure to show your work, and provide the formulas you have used. If you cannot
reach a numerical answer, but know the formula, please give the formula. Also, if you
wish, you may use Excel to do the calculations.
D2. Below you will find a life table for females in the Netherlands in 1850.
Netherlands, Life tables (period 5x1), Females
Modified: 15-Jun-2011, MPv5
Year
Age
mx
qx
ax
lx
dx
Lx
Tx
1850
0
0.20163 0.17827
c) 100000
17827
f)
4080774
1850
1-4
0.03312 0.12168 1.32
82173
9999 301907 3992361
1850
5-9
0.00854 0.04169 2.18
72174
3009 352386 3690454
1850
10-14
0.00512 0.02526 2.44
69165
1747 341358 3338068
1850
15-19
0.00603
b)
2.59
67418
2005 332262 2996710
1850
20-24
0.00740 0.03632 2.53
65413
2376 321200 2664448
1850
25-29
0.00997 0.04869 2.62
63037
3069 307881 2343248
1850
30-34
0.01178 0.05728 2.59
59968
3435 291574 2035368
1850
35-39
0.01290 0.06257 2.58
56533
3537 274116 1743794
1850
40-44
0.01353 0.06534 2.41
52996
3463 256011
g)
1850
45-49
a)
0.06635 2.48
49533
3286 239370 1213666
1850
50-54
0.01637 0.07876 2.59
46246
3643 222453
974296
1850
55-59
0.02148 0.10209 2.57
42604
4350 202461
751843
1850
60-64
0.03162 0.14720 2.66
38254
5631 178081
549382
1850
65-69
0.04859 0.21740 2.58
d)
7092 145973
371301
1850
70-74
0.07538 0.31813 2.55
25531
8122 107750
225329
1850
75-79
0.11218 0.43488 2.42
17409
7571
67485
117579
1850
80-84
0.16248 0.57171 2.41
9838
5625
34618
50094
1850
85-89
0.24846 0.72473 2.13
4214
e)
12290
15476
1850
90-94
0.34851 0.84233 1.93
1160
977
2803
3186
1850
95-99
0.47005 0.91963 1.69
183
168
358
382
1850
100-104
0.59589 0.96015 1.47
15
14
24
25
1850
105-109
0.71127 0.97908 1.30
1
1
1
1
1850
110+
0.79461 1.00000 1.26
0
0
0
0
(May07)
ex
40.81
48.58
51.13
48.26
44.45
40.73
37.17
33.94
30.85
27.73
24.50
21.07
17.65
14.36
11.38
8.83
6.75
h)
3.67
2.75
2.09
1.67
1.40
1.26
a-h) Eight numbers from this life table have been removed. Please calculate the missing numbers
and explain how you did the calculation.
i) In this life table, what is the probability that someone who survives to age 5 will survive to age
60?
j) In the stationary population corresponding to this life table, what fraction of the female
population age 55 and over is alive fifteen years later?
k) What is the Net Reproduction Rate in this stationary population? What approximately is the
Total Fertility Rate?
l) What fraction of Netherlands females age 15-24 in the 1850 census would you expect to be
alive ten years later?