September 3, 2014
Stephen P. Mattingly
Associate Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
University of Texas at Arlington
Supporting Researchers:
Katie Larsen, UT - Austin
Antonio Massidda, Univ. of Vanderbilt
Sunil Madanu, UTA
Overview
• What is High Speed Rail?
• Current Status of High Speed Rail in
Texas
• Texas vs. Other Established Systems
• A Unique Opportunity
• Issues to Resolve/Address
• What Does High Speed Rail Really Mean
for Texas?
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Background
Definition of High Speed Rail (HSR):
European Union:
Minimum Operating Speeds
• 120 mph – Existing Rail Lines
• 160 mph – New HSRs
U.S. DOT:
“Rail service that is time-competitive with air and/or auto for travel
markets in the approximate range of 100 to 500 miles.”
HSR Lines Scenarios
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
HSR in Japan
Early efforts :
1964 Japan: HSR line Toyko to Shin-Osaka
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
HSR in Europe
Early efforts :
1977 Italy: HSR line Rome – Florence
High Speed Train (HST) “Pendolino” operated at speeds up to 155 mph
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the US
A. Massidda
S. Mattingly
HSR in Europe
1981 France – HSR line Paris – Lyon
HST Train à Grand Vitesse (TGV) operated at speeds up to 160 mph
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
What Role Does High Speed Rail Serve?
• Intended for regional (intercity trips)
– Not intra-region (cannot maintain maximum speed for long
periods before needing to brake)
– Typically, 100-500 mile trips
– Example: Houston – Atlanta, ~ 790 miles,
• 2 hours by air
• Over 4 hours at maximum HSR speed with no stops
• May be subsidized or funded by the government
• Passengers pay by the person-trip (fare) rather than vehicle
• Version of public transport even if operated by private firm or
concession
– Similar to air
– Dissimilar to auto
• Outcome: HSR competes with air in limited niche
– Limited SOV vehicles
– Minimum fare Washington DC to Philadelphia, $111
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor
2000 USA – The Northeast Corridor
HSR length 450 miles
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
Acela Express HST
Maximum Operating Speed
150 mph
Average Operating Speed
72 – 125 mph
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor
The impact of the Acela Express on airlines
Air/HSR Market Share Analysis
Route
Distance
(miles)
Air/HSR
market share
for Acela
Express
Acela Express
Travel time
(h:min)
NYC – Washington DC
230
65%
2:45
NYC – Boston
225
52%
3:30
Boston – Philadelphia
320
18%
4:56
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
HSR in USA – The Future
The Proposed HSR Lines in the USA
• South Central, San Antonio – DFW –
Tulsa/Little Rock
• Gulf Coast: Houston – New Orleans –
Southeast (Atlanta & eastern seaboard)
• California Corridors,
• Florida: Tampa – Orlando – Miami,
• Northeast Region,
• Chicago Hub: Detroit – Chicago,
Kansas City – St. Louis – Chicago
• Southeast,
• Pacific Northwest
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
HSR in Texas: Current Status
• Many Competing Voices
– Texas High Speed Rail Corporation (Texas Tbone)
– Texas Oklahoma Passenger Rail Study (TOPRS)
• Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas
line)
• Regional Issues:
– NCTCOG
– Commission for High-Speed Rail in the
Dallas/Fort Worth Region
– Tarrant vs. Dallas County
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
• Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas
line)
–
–
–
–
FRA and TxDOT Lead agencies for EIS
Downtown Dallas station
No public money
Subsidiary of Japan Central Railway
• Regional Issues:
– HSR in Tarrant County
– Station in Arlington near entertainment district
– Coordination and consideration of complete
transportation system
– How to fund?
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
Existing HSR Systems’ Experience:
HSR Stations Near Downtown
• Access: Transportation
– Bus
– Rail (urban and commuter)
• Access: Activities(dense urban cores)
– Businesses (high value business in core)
– Entertainment (most in core)
– Urban housing (high value property)
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
Texas/American Experience
• Access: Transportation
– Bus
– Rail (urban and commuter)
– Automobile
• Access: Activities(dispersed)
– Businesses (multiple centers)
– Entertainment
– Housing (suburban)
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
Travel Time in HH:MM for Wheel Rail (186mph) and Maglev (186mph)
From / To
Austin
College Station
Dallas
Fort Worth
Galveston
Houston
Laredo
San Antonio
Waco
Austin College Station Dallas Fort Worth Galveston Houston
1:28
1:37
1:35
2:33
2:13
1:07
1:10
1:08
1:49
1:34
1:29
1:34
1:31
1:04
0:45
1:03
1:06
1:04
0:47
0:32
1:37
1:33
0:19
2:02
1:43
1:10
1:05
0:13
1:33
1:18
1:35
1:30
0:21
2:16
1:56
1:08
1:03
0:15
1:42
1:27
2:36
1:05
2:05
2:18
0:22
1:50
0:47
1:33
1:41
0:15
2:13
0:43
1:44
1:55
0:19
1:34
0:32
1:18
1:35
0:15
1:52
3:20
3:30
3:27
4:25
4:05
1:22
2:25
2:33
2:31
3:12
2:57
0:30
1:58
2:08
2:05
3:03
2:43
0:21
1:24
1:32
1:30
2:11
1:56
0:46
0:42
0:51
0:48
1:46
1:27
0:33
0:29
0:36
0:34
1:16
1:01
Laredo San Antonio Waco
1:52
0:30
0:46
1:22
0:21
0:33
3:21
1:59
0:43
2:26
1:25
0:30
3:30
2:08
0:51
2:33
1:32
0:36
3:27
2:05
0:48
2:31
1:30
0:34
4:28
3:06
1:49
3:12
2:12
1:16
4:05
2:43
1:27
2:57
1:56
1:01
0:30
2:38
1:00
1:56
0:30
1:16
1:00
0:55
2:38
1:16
1:56
0:55
-
Note:
•
Travel Times do not include station dwell times
•
Any origin to destinationservice does not have intermediate stops
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV
Today, France has
approximately 1,000 miles of
HSR lines
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV
The impact of the TGV on airlines in France
Air/HSR Market Share Analysis
Route
TGV
Market Share
Journey Time
(hours)
Paris-Lyon
91%
1:55
Paris-Nantes
89%
2:00
Paris-Bordeaux
62%
3:00
Lyon-Lille
60%
3:00
Paris-Marseille
60%
3:10
Route type
TGV
Market Share
Journey Time ≤ 2 hours
90%
Journey Time ≥ 2 hours
60%
Total on domestic routes
81%
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership
• Based on international and US(Acela
Express) experience
– HSIPR can get 80% - 90% of the Air/HSIPR
market share when travel time is up to 2 hours
– HSIPR can get 50% - 80% of the Air/HSIPR
market share when travel time is up to 3.5 hours
– As the service is introduced, the HSIPR can
expect to capture between 60 and 85 percent of
existing airline ridership after five years of
operation
• The ridership becomes sensitive to the
location of the station
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership
Ridership (Passengers/Year)
From / To
DFW Area
DFW Area
-
Houston Area
1,226,000
Houston Area
San Antonio
1,230,000
841,000
798,000
32,000
41,000
433,000
429,000
31,000
-
-
Austin
College Station
Waco
San Antonio
845,000
433,000
-
-
-
-
Austin
816,000
439,000
-
-
-
-
College Station
32,000
30,000
-
-
-
-
Waco
41,000
-
-
-
-
-
Note :
• Only non-stop airline destinations are included
• Consider 90 percent of 2012 airline ridership (Oct. 11 – Oct. 12)
• Assume no latent demand
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
A Unique Opportunity
• Access = Economic Opportunity
• Regional air profitability is limited
• Rail replaces regional air service and
creates economic and development
opportunities outside the major urban
areas
• Integrated transportation system
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
A Unique Opportunity
European Experience: HSR Stations Near Airports
• Airlines are offering combined air and rail ticketing
• Rail passengers have expedited check in to airport terminals
• HSR Airport to Airport Connections
Destination
Origin
Rail Service/Line
Distance
Travel Time
Paris Airport
Lyon, France Airport
SNCF/Brussels TGV
293 mi
1 hr 59 min
Paris Airport
Brussels Airport
SNCF/Brussels TGV
171 mi
1 hr 32 min
Frankfurt Airport
Cologne Airport
Deutsche Bahn/ICE
100 mi
43 min
Brussels Airport
Amsterdam Airport
Thalys International
120 mi
1 hr 32 min
Brussels Airport
Dusseldorf Airport
Deutsche Bahn/ICE
117 mi
2 hr 33 min
Source: Raileurope.com
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
A Unique Opportunity
AIRail Station Frankfurt Airport
Terminal 1 Airport
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
AIRail HSR Station
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
A Unique Opportunity
• Ticketing Benefits
– Some airlines like Lufthansa and Air France offer
online booking for combined flight and HSR train
• Access to destinations beyond the arrival airport.
• Other Benefits:
– Replace air trips
• Lower environmental impact
• Similar safety
– New stations = economic development
– Access to smaller urban areas (Waco, College
Station, Temple/Belton)
• Less frequent service
• Each stop adds dwell time and lost time
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas – The Future
The Texas HSR and Higher Speed Rail Network and Airlines:
A Cooperative Approach
On short-haul routes, the HSR may be a substitute for “feeder” flights operated
by regional airlines
Cooperation agreements between HSR operator and airlines may produce
benefits for:
Major Airlines
HSR Operator
• Dismiss less profitable • Increase ridership and
routes,
revenues
• Maintain an extensive
regional network
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
Passengers
• Relatively convenient
service,
• Cheaper fares for
business journeys
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
HSR in Texas – The Future
New Strategies to Establish a Cooperative Approach
Between HSRs and Airlines
HSR as part of the overall wider transportation network – that includes airports
and airlines
An integrated HSR – Airlines system would:
• Improve performance
• Provide passengers with better service
• Increase HSR ridership and revenues
• Reduce expenses or losses for airlines
Operating strategies:
• Code sharing on select HSR routes
• Potential integration of airlines check-in and baggage handling at HSR
stations
• Airlines operating HSTs to diversify investments
Revisiting
High
SpeedHigh
RailSpeed
Viability
Railways
in Texas
in the US
S. Mattingly
A. Massidda
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda S. Mattingly
Challenges
• Optimal placement of rail stations a challenge
– Placement of near other transportation modes
provide access
– Population catchment
– Activity catchment
•
•
•
•
Urban mileage expensive
Activities are dispersed
Possible land use issues
Integration with existing transportation
system (i.e. access)
• No funding for Dallas – Arlington – Fort Worth
extension
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Challenges
• Profitability
– HSR is the most “profitable” type of rail. The
TGV high speed rail of France has a 1.3
billion dollar annual profit. (LesEchols.fr, Renaud
Honore, 2011)
– The AMTRAK Acela Express
• only operationally “profitable” line
• 45% profit margin (Brookings Institute, 2013)
– Does not include debt so may be lower (Brookings Institute, 2013)
– Most HSR is at least capital subsidized
• Same as other modes
• Not perceived the same
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?
• Texas is different than the East Coast and
Europe
– Population
– Activities
• HSR not a solution for urban congestion
– May compete with new managed lane on I-30
– Managed lane SOV toll vs. fare
– May void a concessionaire agreement
• Continuing rural interstate highway
congestion
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?
• Economic development opportunities near
stations
• New transportation system challenges near
stations to provide an adequate and
integrated system
• Not the “public transit” answer to intercity
travel due to high cost
• A political solution to extending HSR beyond
Texas Central Rail initial investment
– Public money spent on expensive to construct
track
– Winners and missed opportunities
High Speed Rail Viability in Texas
S. Mattingly
w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda