Warm-Up Review • • • • Homepage Rule of 72 Single Sum Compounding Annuities 1 Homepage is Important • Homepage has everything – All Slides ……… (important) – Lecture outline – Quiz and project ..time. location – Class/Quiz/Tutorial information – Teaching Group (1+4) contact • www.ece.uvic.ca/~wli 2 The Rule of 72 • Estimates how many years an investment will take to double in value • Number of years to double = 72 / annual compound interest rate • Example -- 72 / 8 = 9 therefore, it will take 9 years for an investment to double in value if it earns 8% annually 3 Example: Double Your Money!!! Quick! How long does it take to double $5,000 at a compound rate of 12% per year? Approx. Years to Double = 72 / i% 72 / 12% = 6 Years [Actual Time is 6.12 Years] 4 Single Sum Problems: Future Value Given: • Amount of deposit today (PV):$50,000 • Interest rate: 11% • Frequency of compounding: Annual • Number of periods (5 years): 5 periods What is the future value of this single sum? FVn = PV(1 + i)n $50,000 x (1.68506) = $84,253 5 Single Sum Problems: Present Value Given: • Amount of deposit end of 5 years: $84,253 • Interest rate (discount) rate: 11% • Frequency of compounding: Annual • Number of periods (5 years): 5 periods What is the present value of this single sum? • FVn = PV(1 + i)n $84,253 x (0.59345) = $50,000 6 Annuity Computations An annuity requires that: • the periodic payments or receipts (rents) always be of the same amount, • the interval between such payments or receipts be the same, and • the interest be compounded once each interval. 7 Example of Annuity End of Year 0 1 2 3 $1,000 $1,000 $1,070 4 7% $1,000 $1,145 If one saves $1,000 a year at the end $3,215 = FVA3 of every year for three years in an 2 FVA3 = $1,000(1.07) + account earning 7% interest, $1,000(1.07)1 + compounded annually, how much $1,000(1.07)0 = $3,215 will one have at the end of the third year? 8 Annuities: Future Value Given: • Deposit made at the end of each period: $5,000 • Compounding: Annual • Number of periods: Five • Interest rate: 12% What is future value of these deposits? F = A[(1+i)n - 1] / i $5,000 x (6.35285) = $ 31,764.25 9 Annuities: Present Value Given: • Rental receipts at the end of each period: $6,000 • Compounding: Annual • Number of periods (years): 5 • Interest rate: 12% What is the present value of these receipts? F = A[(1+i)n - 1] / i $6,000 x (3.60478) = $ 21,628.68 10 Key of Annuity Calculation Fv = n Pv[(1+i) - 1] / i 11 Topics Today • • • • Single Payment, Present/Future Value Factor Sinking Factor, Capital Recovery Factor Conversion for Arithmetic Gradient Series Conversion for Geometric Gradient Series 12 Compound Amount Factor (Single Payment) • This factor finds the equivalent future worth, F, of a present investment, P, held for n periods at i rate of interest. • Example: What is the value in 9 years of $1,200 invested now at 10% interest 13 Compound Amount Factor (Single Payment) F 1 2 3 4 9 P = $1,200 F P(1 i) n $1,200(1 0.10) $2,829 9 14 Present Worth Factor (Single Payment) • This factor finds the equivalent present value, P, of a single future cash flow, F, occurring at n periods in the future when the interest rate is i per period. • Example: What amount would you have to invest now to yield $2,829 in 9 years if the interest rate per year is 10%? 15 Present Worth Factor (Single Payment) F = $2,829 1 2 3 4 9 P P F (1 i) n $2,829(1 0.10) $1,200 9 16 Compound Amount Factor (Uniform Series) • This factor finds the equivalent future value, F, of the accumulation of a uniform series of equal annual payments, A, occurring over n periods at i rate of interest per period. • Example: What would be the future worth of an annual year-end cash flow of $800 for 6 years at 12% interest per year? 17 Compound Amount Factor (Uniform Series) F 1 $800 2 $800 3 4 $800 5 $800 6 $800 $800 (1 i ) 1 FA i (1 0.12) 6 1 $800 0.12 $6,492 n 18 Sinking Fund Factor • This factor determines how much must be deposited each period in a uniform series, A, for n periods at i interest per period to yield a specified future sum. • Example: If a $1.2 million bond issue is to be retired at the end of 20 years, how much must be deposited annually into a sinking fund at 7% interest per year? 19 Sinking Fund Factor F = $1,200,000 1 2 A 3 A 4 A 20 A A A i A F (1 i ) n 1 0.07 $1,200,000 (1 0.07) 20 1 $29,272 20 Capital Recovery Factor • This factor finds an annuity, or uniform series of payments, over n periods at i interest per period that is equivalent to a present value, P. • Example: What savings in annual manufacturing costs over an 8 year period would justify the purchase of a $120,000 machine if the firm’s minimum attractive rate of return (MARR) were 25%? 21 Capital Recovery Factor A 1 $120,000 A 2 A A 3 A 8 i (1 i ) n A P (1 i ) n 1 0.25(1 0.25)8 $120,000 (1 0.25)8 1 $36,048 22 Present Worth Factor (Uniform Series) • This factor finds the equivalent present value, P, of a series of endof-period payments, A, for n periods at i interest per period. • Example: What lump sum payment would be required to provide $50,000 per year for 30 years at an annual interest rate of 9%? 23 Present Worth Factor (Uniform Series) $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 1 P 2 $50,000 $50,000 3 30 (1 i ) n 1 PA i (1 i ) n (1 0.07)30 1 $50,000 0.07(1 0.07)30 $620,452 24 Series and Arithmetic Series • A series is the sum of the terms of a sequence. • The sum of an arithmetic progression (an arithmetic series, difference between one and the previous term is a constant) sn a (a d ) (a 2d ) (a 3d ) ... (a (n 1)d ) • Can we find a formula so we don’t have to add up every arithmetic series we come across? 25 Sum of terms of a finite AP S n a (a d ) (a 2d ) ... [a (n 2)d ] [a (n 1)d ] S n a (a d ) (a 2d ) ... (a nd 2d ) (a nd d ) S n (a nd d ) (a nd 2d ) ... (a 2d ) (a d ) a 2 S n a (2a nd ) (2a nd ) ... (2a nd ) (2a nd ) a There are (n) 2a terms 2a n 2an; There are (n - 1) nd terms nd (n - 1) nd (n - 1) ; Therefore, 2Sn 2an nd (n 1) 2 S n n[2a (n 1)d ] n S n [2a (n 1)d ] 2 26 Arithmetic Gradient Series • A series of N receipts or disbursements that increase by a constant amount from period to period. • Cash flows: 0G, 1G, 2G, ..., (N–1)G at the end of periods 1, 2, ..., N • Cash flows for arithmetic gradient with base annuity: A', A’+G, A'+2G, ..., A'+(N–1)G at the end of periods 1, 2, ..., N where A’ is the amount of the base annuity 27 Arithmetic Gradient to Uniform Series • Finds A, given G, i and N • The future amount can be “converted” to an equivalent annuity. The factor is: 1 N ( A / G, i , N ) i (1 i )N 1 • The annuity equivalent (not future value!) to an arithmetic gradient series is A = G(A/G, i, N) 28 Arithmetic Gradient to Uniform Series • The annuity equivalent to an arithmetic gradient series is A = G(A/G, i, N) • If there is a base cash flow A', the base annuity A' must be included to give the overall annuity: Atotal = A' + G(A/G, i, N) • Note that A' is the amount in the first year and G is the uniform increment starting in year 2. 29 Arithmetic Gradient Series with Base Annuity 30 Example 3-8 • A lottery prize pays $1000 at the end of the first year, $2000 the second, $3000 the third, etc., for 20 years. If there is only one prize in the lottery, 10 000 tickets are sold, and you can invest your money elsewhere at 15% interest, how much is each ticket worth, on average? 31 Example 3-8: Answer • Method 1: First find annuity value of prize and then find present value of annuity. A' = 1000, G = 1000, i = 0.15, N = 20 A = A' + G(A/G, i, N) = 1000 + 1000(A/G, 15%, 20) = 1000 + 1000(5.3651) = 6365.10 • Now find present value of annuity: P = A (P/A, i, N) where A = 6365.10, i = 15%, N = 20 P = 6365.10(P/A, 15, 20) = 6365.10(6.2593) = 39 841.07 • Since 10 000 tickets are to be sold, on average each ticket is worth (39 841.07)/10,000 = $3.98. 32 Arithmetic Gradient Conversion Factor (to Uniform Series) • The arithmetic gradient conversion factor (to uniform series) is used when it is necessary to convert a gradient series into a uniform series of equal payments. • Example: What would be the equal annual series, A, that would have the same net present value at 20% interest per year to a five year gradient series that started at $1000 33 and increased $150 every year thereafter? Arithmetic Gradient Conversion Factor (to Uniform Series) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 $1000 $1150 A A A A A $1300 $1450 (1 i ) n (1 ni ) A Ag G i[(1 i ) n 1] $1600 (1 0.20)5 (1 5 * 0.20) $1,000 $150 0.20[(1 0.20)5 1] $1,246 34 Arithmetic Gradient Conversion Factor (to Present Value) • This factor converts a series of cash amounts increasing by a gradient value, G, each period to an equivalent present value at i interest per period. • Example: A machine will require $1000 in maintenance the first year of its 5 year operating life, and the cost will increase by $150 each year. What is the present worth of this series of maintenance costs if the firm’s minimum attractive rate of return is 20%? 35 Arithmetic Gradient Conversion Factor (to Present Value) $1600 $1450 $1300 $1150 $1000 1 2 3 4 5 P (1 i ) n 1 1 (1 ni )(1 i ) n PA G n i (1 i ) i2 (1 0.20)5 1 1 (1 5 * 0.20)(1 0.20) 5 $1,000 $150 5 0.20(1 0.20) (0.20) 2 $3,727 36 Geometric Gradient Series • A series of cash flows that increase or decrease by a constant proportion each period • Cash flows: A, A(1+g), A(1+g)2, …, A(1+g)N–1 at the end of periods 1, 2, 3, ..., N • g is the growth rate, positive or negative percentage change • Can model inflation and deflation using geometric series 37 Geometric Series • The sum of the consecutive terms of a geometric sequence or progression is called a geometric series. • For example: Sn a ak ak 2 ak 3 .... ak n 2 ak n 1 Is a finite geometric series with quotient k. • What is the sum of the n terms of a finite geometric series 38 Sum of terms of a finite GP Sn a ak ak 2 .... ak n 2 ak n 1 kSn ak ak 2 .... ak n 2 ak n 1 ak n Sn kSn a 0 0 ..... 0 0 ak n Sn (1 k ) a (1 k n ) (1 k n ) Sn a (1 k ) • Where a is the first term of the geometric progression, k is the geometric ratio, and n is the number of terms in the progression. 39 Geometric Gradient to Present Worth • The present worth of a geometric series is: A A(1 g ) A(1 g )N 1 P 2 (1 i ) (1 i ) (1 i )N • Where A is the base amount and g is the growth rate. • Before we may get the factor, we need what is called a growth adjusted interest rate: i 1 i 1 1 g 1 so that 1 g 1 i 1 i 40 Geometric Gradient to Present Worth Factor: (P/A, g, i, N) (1 i )N 1 1 (P / A, g, i , N ) N 1 g i (1 i ) (P/A,i ,N) ( 1 g) Four cases: (1) i > g > 0: i° is positive use tables or formula (2) g < 0: i° is positive use tables or formula (3) g > i > 0: i° is negative Must use formula (4) g = i > 0: i° = 0 A P N 1 g 41 Compound Interest Factors Discrete Cash Flow, Discrete Compounding To Find F P Given P F Name of Factor Compound Amount Factor (single payment) Present Worth Factor (single payment) F A Compound Amount Factor (uniform series) A F Sinking Fund Factor Factor (1 i) n (1 i ) n (1 i ) n 1 i i (1 i ) n 1 42 Compound Interest Factors Discrete Cash Flow, Discrete Compounding To Find A P A P Given P A G G Name of Factor Factor Capital Recovery Factor i (1 i ) n (1 i ) n 1 Present Worth Factor (uniform series) Arithmetic Gradient Conversion Factor (to uniform series) Arithmetic Gradient Conversion Factor (to present value) (1 i) n 1 i (1 i) n (1 i ) n (1 ni ) i[(1 i ) n 1] 1 (1 ni)(1 i ) n i2 43 Compound Interest Factors Discrete Cash Flow, Continuous Compounding To Find F P F A Given P F A F Name of Factor Compound Amount Factor (single payment) Present Worth Factor (single payment) Factor e rn Compound Amount Factor (uniform series) e rn 1 er 1 Sinking Fund Factor er 1 e rn 1 e rn 44 Compound Interest Factors Discrete Cash Flow, Continuous Compounding To Find A P A P Given P A G G Name of Factor Factor Capital Recovery Factor e rn (e r 1) e rn 1 Present Worth Factor (uniform series) Arithmetic Gradient Conversion Factor (to uniform series) Arithmetic Gradient Conversion Factor (to present value) e rn 1 e rn (e r 1) 1 n rn r e 1 e 1 e rn 1 n(e r 1) e rn (e r 1) 2 45 Compound Interest Factors Continuous Uniform Cash Flow, Continuous Compounding To Find C C F P Given F P C C Name of Factor Sinking Fund Factor (continuous, uniform payments) Capital Recovery Factor (continuous, uniform payments) Compound Amount Factor (continuous, uniform payments) Present Worth Factor (continuous, uniform payments) Factor r e rn 1 re rn e rn 1 e rn 1 r e rn 1 re rn 46 Calculator Talk • • • • • No programmable No economic Function Simple the best Trust your ability Trust your teaching group 47 Summary • • • • Single Sum Compounding Annuities Conversion for Arithmetic Gradient Series Conversion for Geometric Gradient Series • Key: Compound Interests Calculation 48