Severe Weather Planning
Andy Bailey
National Weather Service
Kansas City / Pleasant Hill, MO
1
Agenda
• Importance of Weather
• NWS Overview
• What is available on the web
• Planning and Safety Rules
2
Economic and Societal Impacts
Annual Cost
Deaths
Tornadoes :
$2.9 billion
44
Floods:
$2.4 billion
96
Hurricanes:
$6.4 billion
20
Winter Storms >
$1 Billion
47
Lighning >
$1 Billion
175
Hail
$2.3 Billion
3
Weather Impacts…
• Power generation costs
• Shipping costs
• Transportation costs (airlines etc)
• Building material costs
• Heating / cooling costs
• Food prices
• Insurance rates
• Employee costs
4
Weather Impacts…
How does weather impact your employees?
– Telecommute?
– Snow days at child’s school
– Sick days
– Missed / delayed flights
5
How does weather affect
your business?
6
What are you doing to
plan for weather?
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NWS Overview
8
What We Do
• Produce Weather, Water and Climate
Forecasts and Warnings
– For All Americans
– To Protect Life and Property
– To Enhance the National Economy
• Data and Products:
–
–
–
–
Government Agencies
Private Sector
The Public
Global Communities
• Weather and data are becoming
more important to economy and
business decisions
– “The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if the accuracy of
weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.”
USA Today, 6/19/01
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What We Do

The NWS is the only OFFICIAL voice for issuing severe weather
warnings.

Produce public, aviation, and fire weather forecasts

Provide support to other local, state and federal government
agencies.

River and flood forecasts and services

Largest data collection network in the world

NOAA Weather Radio

Skywarn Spotter Program

Cooperative Observation Program

Outreach projects
10
National Weather Service Offices Nationwide
11
Background Information
• Lots and Lots of free NWS stuff available
• National Weather Service limits on services
• Private Weather Vendors
– $$ for interpretation and customized
service
12
How a Forecast was Made
2) Forecaster looks at forecast
guidance from several numerical
weather prediction models and
begins making a mental image of
the forecast
.
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How a Forecast was Made
Once the forecaster creates
the mental image of the
forecast they then used
to…
• Type the aviation forecast
• Type the public forecast
• Type the fire weather forecast
The forecaster could spend
up to 3 hours a day typing!
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New Forecast Method
• Observed and computer forecast guidance acts as
base forecast
• Forecaster then adjusts the gridded model forecast in
a digital forecast database to best match expected
forecast
• Digital forecast database is the source for traditional
forecasts, and new highly customized forecasts
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Computer forecasts directly input
into Graphical Forecast Editing
Software
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Forecasters edit gridded digital
data
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Not Just Temperature
• Temp
• Probability of Precip
• Dewpoint
• Snow amounts
• RH
• Rain amounts
• Wind
• Numerous Fire Weather
Parameters
• Sky
• Weather
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Formats Available
• Free in GIS integratable “grids”
• XML Web Service
• Graphics
nws.noaa.gov/ndfd
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Every Local NWS Office has an extensive web page
• Forecasts
• Radar
• Climate
• Warnings
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Getting Your Forecast
Click
on your
Available
in other
location
formats
21
Forecast in Yet Another Format…
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Interpreting Radar Data
How Radar works
23
NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
WSR-88D Capabilities
•
Reflectivity
– “Hot” colors means more
intense echoes (heavy
rain/hail)
– Simply a measure of
“reflected” energy
• Velocity
– “Warm” colors -Winds
blowing
away from the radar
– “Cool” colors –
Winds blowing
toward the radar
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Radar Precipitation Estimates
Overestimate Causes:
•Hail Contamination
•Evaporation in sub
cloud layer
Underestimate Causes:
•Tropical-like regimes
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Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO
– Provides an outlook up to seven days out to
the potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
– Provides a few hours notice that conditions
are condusive to severe weather should
storms develop
• Warnings
– Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
imminent
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Anticipating Severe Weather
• Hazardous Weather
Outlook
– Focus on expected
threats.
– Seven day outlook
for severe weather.
– Issued twice daily
6 a.m. and 1 p.m.
– Broadcast
continuously on
NWR.
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Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO
– Provides an outlook up to seven days out to
the potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
– Provides a few hours notice that conditions
are conducive to severe weather should
storms develop
• Warnings
– Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
imminent
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Severe Weather Watch
WATCH
Conditions are
favorable for a
severe weather
event in or near
the watch area
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
Watches are
issued for
Tornadoes,
Severe
Thunderstorms,
Flash Floods
and Floods
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA
KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
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Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
• HWO
– Provides an outlook up to seven days out to
the potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
– Provides a few hours notice that conditions
are conducive to severe weather should
storms develop
• Warnings
– Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
imminent
30
Severe Weather Warning
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
807 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
WARNING
A severe weather
event is imminent
or occurring in the
Warned area
Warnings are
issued for
Tornadoes, Severe
Thunderstorms,
Flash Floods, and
Floods
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
* UNTIL 845 PM CST
* AT 804 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KNOB NOSTER. DOPPLER IS SHOWING THIS TORNADO
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
HOUSTONIA BY 815 PM CST.
THE TOWNS OF EMMA…NESLON AND BLACKWATER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADIC STORM.
THE SAFEEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Warned Area
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEN AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON 3899 9365 3885 9359 3887 9293 3913 9295
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County-Based VS Storm-Based Warnings
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How Walmart Uses Polygons
Walmart EOC uses GIS to
overlay polygons onto a
store location map
Walmart EOC then calls
individual stores affected by
warnings alerting them of the
threat
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Storm Prediction Center Website
www.spc.noaa.gov
Good place for
large scale outlook
maps, and technical
discussions as to
severe weather
threats across the
country.
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How To Receive Warnings
• NOAA Weather Radio
– Nationwide network
– Alarm Feature
– Portable devices available
– Programmable to customize
by location or warning type
desired
– Equip every facility with one
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Overall Planning/Safety
Before the season begins…
• Create your weather safety plan and train
employees/volunteers
During the season…
• Maintain your situational awareness
• Assign a person or position to be the weather
watcher
• If thunderstorms are forecast, be sure to
communicate appropriate threats and safety info
• Practice, Practice, Practice
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Threats From Thunderstorms
• The biggest threat from thunderstorms
at outdoor events is lightning.
• Other risks include Hail…
– straight-line winds >80 mph
– possibly a tornado
– flooding in multiuse areas
37
Threats From Thunderstorms-Lightning
• Kills more people than
tornadoes
• Dangerous at great distances
from parent storm
• 30-30 rule
– If the time between seeing
lightning and hearing
thunder is less than 30
seconds seek shelter
immediately
– Don’t emerge from shelter
until 30 minutes after last
thunder is heard-many
deaths occur after the
storm has passed
38
Threats From Thunderstorms-Hail
• If you event has thousands or
even hundreds of attendees, the
potential for numerous injuries is
high.
• If you follow the 30/30 lightning
rule, hail should not be an issue.
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Questions to Ponder
• Do you have a severe weather plan for work and home? (if
so do you practice it?)
• How can you integrate weather preparedness and data into
your companies operations?
• How can your business perform better, and keep
employees and customers safe using weather data?
• What’s stopping you from taking action?
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Questions?
andy.bailey@noaa.gov
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