The New Hampshire Primary:
What it means to the state and
the nation
Library and Archives of NH’s Political Tradition
Ross Gittell, Associate Professor, UNH
Brian Gottlob, President, PolEcon Research
The benefits of the NH Primary
accrue to the state and to the
nation
• Political and social benefits for the state and
nation as the primary engages a high percentage
of citizens
• NH citizens’ personal contact with the
candidates and focused discussion of issues
influences election outcome
• Candidates get tested and learn... come away
stronger candidates
• Economic benefits for the state and its citizens
via spending and jobs and media exposure
Most important are the benefits to the
nation of having an active and engaged
electorate test the qualifications of
candidates….
In 2000, national and international
media truly acknowledged the value of
NH’s role in the political process
The national media messages
about the New Hampshire
primary ….1992, 1996 and 2000
• 1992: “The worst economy in the country”
• 1996: “Home of retail politics”, “Politically
atypical”, and “Traditional”
• 2000: ”Retail Politics”, “Serious voting
electorate”, “Informed”, and
“Crucial”
NH was still portrayed as “different”, but in
2000, it was portrayed as more of a virtue
Top Media Impressions (000's)
1996
2000
Home of Retail Politics
Politically Atypical
Traditional
Serious Electorate
Crucial
Informed Electorate
Technology Leader
Bitter cold
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000
Full slates for both Democrats and Republicans meant more exposure
for NH Primary in 2000 than in 1996
Exposure by month, in impressions
140
Sum of impressions (in millions)
120
100
1996 Primary (held 2/21/96)
80
2000 Primary (held 2/1/00)
60
40
20
0
October
November
December
Month
January
February
March
The First-in-the-Nation Primary
Potential readers exposed to the message that NH
deserves its status as "First in the Nation"
18,089,729
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
1,991,458
0
1996
2000
Media stories about NH voters
engagement reflected reality, not
just image
% of Voting Age Citizens
Voted in Primary
75%
Paid "Some" or " A lot of" attention
74%
Watched One or More Debate
Attended Campaign Event
Shook hands
Made a Campaign Contribution
68%
13%
10%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
UNH Survey Center. July, 2000
Quotes of Note:
From the June 15, 1999 New York Times
describing New Hampshire as a state
with:
“a justifiable reputation for being a state
with informed voters who ask informed
questions”
Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2000
• “In 2000 the word got out….New Hampshire
has a strong economy for high-tech ventures
and is an attractive place for start-up
businesses”
• “New Hampshire has an active and wellinformed electorate…the highest level of
involvement among the 2000 presidential
nominating contests”
Economic Impacts
The first-in-nation primary benefits some
industries in NH but the overall impact is often
exaggerated by outsiders…it is about .6 of 1% of
the state’s gsp in the peak year of primary
activity
The economic impact of the 2000
primary was 50% greater than the
impact of the 1996 primary
$350
$306
$300
$250
$210
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
1996
2000
Increased media coverage was a big reason
for expenditure increases (campaign
spending rose only modestly)
Number of reporters covering the NH
Primary
593
600
500
370
400
300
200
100
0
1996
2000
How we produced our economic
estimates
• Travel, tourism, and tax data
• Federal Election Commission campaign
expenditure reports
• Media content analysis
• Interviews with businesses and with
campaign workers
• Employed recognized econometric methods
and models
Most of the economic impacts occurred
in the year preceding the primary
Timing of Economic Impacts ($million)
100%
80%
$5
$37
$33
Imputed Media
Value ('96-'99)
March '96-Feb.'99
60%
40%
20%
0%
$231
Imputed Media
Value ('99-'00)
March '99-Feb. '00
Overview of Economic Impacts of
the New Hampshire Primary
(March 1, 1999 - Feb. 28, 2000)
Direct Campaign
Spending $12 million
Media and Visitor
Spending $71 million
Total Spending
$231 million
(Direct,Indirect & Induced)
Total Economic Benefits
(March 1, 1999-Feb. 28, 2000)
$264 Million
Total Direct Spending
$83 million
Value of
Tourism
Promotion
Exposure
$6.6 million
Value of
Business
Development
Exposure
$26.4 million
- $231 million sales and 2,248 jobs
- $6.6 million tourism promotion
- $26.4 million business development
The lodging, restaurant, media,
communications, and trans. industries,
along with households receive the greatest
benefits
Sales ($ millions)
$1$3
Manuf.
$3$6
Const.
F.I.R.E
$8
Retail
$14
Services
2000
1996
$27
$12
$18
Comm/Trans
$29
$25
Hotel/Rest.
$33
$43
$26
Households*
$57
$37
0
10
20
30
* Households refers to payments for labor (wages)
40
50
60
Total Primary spending of $231
million results in over 2,200 jobs
$231
2,248
467
$116
255
$31
1,511
$83
Spending ($million)
Jobs
Induced
Indirect
Direct
Half of the jobs created are in the
lodging and restaurant industries
Full-Time Equivalent Jobs Resulting from Primary
1,187
Lodging/Rest.
Services
428
Gov.
175
Retail
187
113
Comm/Trans/Util.
F.I.R.E.
59
Const.
59
Manuf.
12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Media Coverage and Advertising
Equivalency
The First-in-the-Nation primary is the
#1 media opportunity in NH…
the word gets about about candidates,
the issues and about NH
Why media coverage is important
• An audience of 222 million people
worldwide were exposed to stories
about NH via media coverage of the
primary during primary
Specific Media Data
• Top media outlets covering the Primary:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
ABC World News This Morning
Business Week
CNBC-TV
CNN - Crossfire
Kansas City Star
London Free Press
Charleston Post & Courier
Chicago Sun Times
CNN
Raleigh News and Observer
Specific Media Data
• Most positive media outlets:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Boston Globe
USA Today
Atlanta Journal and Constitution
LA Times
ABC
Dallas Morning News
Washington Post
NY Times ABC World News This Morning
Business Week
CNBC-TV
Specific Media Data
• Most negative media outlets:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
San Francisco Chronicle
Boston Herald
Orlando Sentinel
Indianapolis Star
Denver Post
Tampa Tribune
Times-Picayune
Richmond Times-Dispatch
San Francisco Examiner
Rock Hill (SC) Herald
The positive articles translate into positive
impression of NH for 22 million people (up
from 15 million in ‘96)
• Positive impression of the state for 22 million
• Research shows that 3% of those positively
exposed will eventually visit
• Thus, news coverage of the primary will
contribute to 660,000 visits to NH (3% of 22
million)
• Each $10 of advertising by NH attracts 1
visitor. Thus 660,000 visits = $6.6 million in
advertising value
The impact of media coverage on
tourism
220 million media
impressions
22 million positive
impressions
660,000 nonprimary visits
(3% of 22 million)
$6.6 million in tourism
advertising equivalency
@ $10/visitor
(about twice NH’s tourism
advertising budget)
International media coverage also
impacts business development
660,000 visits to NH
(3% of 22 million)
13,200 corporate
decision- makers
and entrep. (2% of
660,000 - actual US
figure is 11%)
132 new businesses
(1% of 13,200 or
.0002 of all visits)
132 new business
with avg. 20 emp. per
business= 2,640 employees
@ $10,000 subsidy/business
development value per
emp.= $26,400,000
Let’s keep NH First....
• There is strong interest & support for a
collaborative effort to keep NH First-in-theNation ...with industry leaders, public
officials and others..
Why NH should be First...
– we in NH take our role very seriously…we know
that every vote always counts
– there are national benefits from an engaged &
informed electorate in NH
– our small scale and strong tradition of participation
and engagement ensures that $ and media do not
determine our primary election outcomes
– ideas and voter contact are most important in NH
– “underdogs” still have a chance in NH
– we are not in it for the money…but it helps
particular sectors of the economy