Methane Hydrates Aff
1AC
1AC – Inherency Solvency
Contention One – Inherency and Solvency
Funding for the Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act were cut
– replacement is uncertain
Congressional Research Service, January 24, 2011 [Peter Folger, staff writer specializing in
energy and natural resources policy, Gas Hydrates: Resource and Hazard,
http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=924a328e-1628-4380-96960680d061555f, June 30, 2014] KF
For FY2011, the Obama Administration requested
no funding for the Natural Gas Technologies program
within DOE’s Fossil Energy Research and Development account, which included gas hydrates R&D, stating
that the move was consistent with Administration policy to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.22 Instead, the Administration
proposed to initiate a new research program in gas hydrates within the Office of Basic Energy Sciences. In the
Administration proposal, the program would study fundamental scientific questions about methane hydrates, and would conduct
controlled in situ depressurization and physical, thermal, and chemical stimulation experiments in the Arctic. The program would
also collect in situ core samples from sediments in the Gulf of Mexico. The Administration’s request for the program for FY2011 was
$17.5 million. It could be argued that the proposed program’s emphasis on understanding basic scientific questions about gas
hydrates responds to needs identified by gas hydrate researchers. For example, researchers have identified a need to better
understand how geology in the permafrost regions and on continental margins controls the occurrence and formation of methane
hydrates.23 They underscore the need to understand fundamental aspects—porosity, permeability, reservoir temperatures—of the
geologic framework that hosts the gas hydrate resource to improve assessment and exploration, to mitigate the hazard, and to
enhance gas recovery. It is unclear whether the Administration will implement the new program in 2011.
Funding for the federal government provided in P.L. 111-322 as a continuing resolution for FY2011 does
not address the proposed shift in program funding from the Fossil Energy R&D account to the Office of
Science. Appropriations under P.L. 111-322 extend through March 4, 2011.
Government research is necessary for methane hydrate development –
empirical examples proves
Arango May 7 2013 [writer for CBC news, http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canada-drops-outof-race-to-tap-methane-hydrates-1.1358966?ref=fh%2Cwww.mymanitoba.com]
Other countries are still pursuing hydrate research. Last year, U.S.
Secretary of Energy Steven Chu said that methane
hydrates "could potentially yield significant new supplies of natural gas and further expand U.S. energy
supplies." He compared the current methane hydrate research to the long-term research investments that
paved the way for the shale-gas boom. The U.S. conducted production tests in Alaska in 2012. In March 2012, a GermanTaiwanese venture was launched to study the methane resources in the South China Sea. Norway, South Korea and India are also
involved in ongoing hydrate research. A lot of research has been necessary, because harvesting energy from
methane hydrates is tricky. Michael Whiticar, a professor of biochemistry from the Earth and Ocean Science Department at
the University of Victoria, says that hydrates store large amounts of gas in a relatively small area. One cubic metre of hydrate can
hold around 160 cubic metres of methane and 0.8 cubic metres of water. Even so, they're hard to get at. Whiticar explains that
offshore hydrates can be formed in large white clusters, but it is more common to find them mixed in
ocean sand, like "sugar mixed with the sediments."
A national effort is necessary to overcome tech challenges – petroleum
proves
Pellenbarg and Max ’14- , At Naval Research Laboratory and MDS Research [Gas
Hydrates: From Laboratory Curiosity to Potential Global Powerhouse, 5/26/14,
file:///C:/Users/k/Documents/MNDI%202014/Gas%20Hydrates%20From%20Laboratory%20Curiosity.
pdf, accessed 6/25/14, Proquest, KC]
Less clear is the exact nature of such deposits, and details of the technology that would be required to tap such immense
reservoirs of clean-burning fuel. However, the industry view is that if and when hydrates are to be tapped for
their energy potential, technology challenges will be overcome, just as industry mastered petroleum
exploitation in increasingly deep land locations and offshore in deep water , for example. Summary The promise of
methane from hydrate has encouraged various governmental entities to initiate preliminary R&D efforts focusing on hydrate. Japan
and India are proceeding with well-funded efforts, and the USA has established, via Congressional mandate, a smaller national
program. The geopolitical implications of a new energy paradigm based upon energy independence
supported by a gas-based industry are of potentially immense importance for the USA and other nations
now having an oil-based economy. Carefully designed and implemented national efforts with effective
cooperation among government, academe, and industry at the national level can lead to such
independence based on the promise of methane hydrate.
Additional research promotes Methane hydrates with carbon sequestration
Pellenbarg and Max ’14- , At Naval Research Laboratory and MDS Research [Gas
Hydrates: From Laboratory Curiosity to Potential Global Powerhouse, 5/26/14,
file:///C:/Users/k/Documents/MNDI%202014/Gas%20Hydrates%20From%20Laboratory%20Curiosity.
pdf, accessed 6/25/14, Proquest, KC]
The geopolitical implications of energy independence for Japan or India and for their relations with the rest of the world are
staggering. Both energy security concerns and the prospect of abundant new energy resources are driving the current interest in
methane hydrate. Petroleum fuel currently dominates and underpins global economic activity. Petroleum, however, is a finite
resource. Further, there are clear political problems associated with the distribution of petroleum resources on the planet. Because
of the world abundance of methane and the natural limitations to petroleum, a methane-based economy
will inevitably supplant the current petroleum-based economy. The only question is when and where will it develop
first. Methane as a fuel offers clear advantages over oil or coal: immense resource potential, ease of transport via in-place
distribution infrastructure, less carbon dioxide release per unit volume burned, no release of sulfur or nitrogen oxides, and so forth.
Further, methane hydrate serves as an analog for other gas hydrate species. Carbon dioxide hydrate is increasingly
examined as a potential storage medium for carbon dioxide produced by combustion of fossil fuels in
general. Studies are examining the feasibility of using liquid carbon dioxide or the corresponding hydrate
to sequester carbon dioxide captured from fossil fuel combustion. U.S. Navy scientists have defined the concept of
using methane hydrate as the basis of a new technology to desalinate seawater (U.S. Patent 5,873,262 issued 27 Feb 1999). Clearly,
the future of methane hydrate research and development is full of promise. Only within the past 20 years has the
scientific community come to realize that there is in fact enough methane on the planet to underpin a gasbased economy. Immense reservoirs of methane occur as gas hydrate, newly recognized deposits of which are much more
uniformly scattered around the globe. The Middle East has no monopoly on gas hydrate deposits as it does for petroleum supplies.
Hydrate deposits potentially large enough to allow for energy independence occur in the EEZs of at least two major industrial
nations, the USA and Japan, and are likely to occur adjacent to most coastal oceanic states. There is clear consensus that there is a
lot of methane as hydrate in the sediments of the world ocean.
1AC – Plan Text
Text – the United States federal government should substantially increase
funding and incentives for offshore methane hydrate research and
development using carbon injection.
1AC – Energy Dependence
US energy dependence is increasing because consumption is increasing
despite prices
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
For decades, the United States has been the largest consumer of petroleum in the world. In 2012, for
example, the United States consumed approximately 18.6 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil and
petroleum products.9 In the same year, the United States produced just 6.5 mbd of crude oil.10 While some of the 12.1 mbd
difference between U.S. demand and domestic crude oil supply was made up by refinery gains, natural gas liquids, biofuels, and
other domestic sources, the shortfall was largely closed through 7.4 mbd in net oil imports.11 At an average price of just over
$94 per barrel in 2012, U.S. refiners – and eventually consumers – sent nearly $291 billion to foreign
nations in exchange for oil. This equals about $800 million a day.12 While the imbalance between domestic oil
consumption and production, in physical volumes, is not much larger today than it was ten years ago, the amount of
money that Americans pay for oil has quadrupled, as the average price for a barrel of crude oil has risen
from $22.61 in 2002 to $101.16 in 2012.13 For most products, a price increase of this magnitude would convince
consumers to reduce their consumption and prompt domestic producers to dramatically raise production. Oil, however, is different.
Both the supply and demand for petroleum are price inelastic in the short run, meaning major price
changes lead to only small changes in domestic production and consumption levels. For example, as oil
prices quadrupled between 2002 and 2012, demand for petroleum products fell by just 1.2 mbd (6.1%)
and domestic production increased by just 1.4 mbd (16.1%).14 Moving forward, the EIA’s 2013 Annual Energy
Outlook—a highly cited U.S. long-term forecast—projects that oil consumption will remain relatively flat, falling
by less than 1% from 2013 to 2040.15
Remaining dependent cripples the US economy – it leaves us vulnerable to
oil shocks
Blair 14- Adm. Dennis C. Blair, a former director of National Intelligence (Dennis,
Michael W. Hagee, Adm. Dennis C. Blair, a former director of National Intelligence and former
commander in chief of the United States Pacific Command, and Gen. Michael W. Hagee, the 33rd
commandant of the United States Marine Corps, serve as co-chairmen of the Commission on Energy and
Geopolitics, a project of Securing America’s Future Energy, Tempering Oil Dependence, New York Times,
FEB. 25, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/opinion/tempering-oil-dependence.html?_r=0) HL
Today, the 1973 oil embargo is often remembered as a crisis caused by America’s over-reliance on imported oil. Crude imports
almost tripled between 1970 and 1973, to reach nearly 30 percent of supplies. This did leave the country vulnerable to supply shocks
— and our political leadership conveyed the idea that what America needed, above all, was “independence” from foreign producers.
This analysis was simply wrong. The key to America’s crisis in 1973 was our dangerous dependence on oil to
power the economy, particularly transportation — and not on our dependence on overseas suppliers per se. At the time of
the embargo, petroleum fuels accounted for 96 percent of the energy consumed by our cars, trucks, ships
and aircraft. Consumers and businesses that depended on oil to power their transportation had no choice
but to pay more at the pump, or travel less. It was that vulnerability that put us at the mercy of the global
oil market and actors like OPEC. What our leaders in 1973 failed to comprehend or communicate was that no matter how
much oil the United States might produce, merely being a large producer would not confer immunity from
global oil market volatility. For proof, look no farther than countries like Canada and Norway, which are net oil
exporters but whose consumers face the same oil-price volatility as Americans. Today, America’s energy
landscape again appears abundant. Improved production technologies have unlocked vast sources of domestic oil. American crude
production is projected to approach a historical record as soon as 2015, and net liquid fuel imports are expected to account for less
than 30 percent of American oil supplies this year, down from nearly 60 percent in 2008. This dramatic turnaround has led many to
suggest that the era of oil insecurity is over. Don’t be fooled: Despite advances in energy and automotive technologies,
we remain as vulnerable as ever. Since 1973, our transportation sector’s reliance on oil has dropped by just 3 percent, to 93
percent from 96 percent. Unless we act, 90 percent of our transportation will remain oil-dependent through
2030, according to the Department of Energy. And we must expect interruptions to global oil supplies,
oil-price spikes and market manipulation by OPEC. If America is to remain prosperous and secure in the
21st century, we must make significant progress toward ending our oil dependence. Improvements in fuel
economy are a valuable move in the right direction, and President Obama’s announcement of tougher rules for trucks last week
should be applauded. But efficiency alone is not enough. We need fuel diversity in the transportation sector to shield our economy
from swings in global oil prices. Our objective should be to reduce the role of oil in transportation to 50 percent
within the next 25 years. We can accomplish this through more deployment of fuels like electricity and
natural gas, which are domestic, plentiful and not subject to the kinds of anticompetitive forces that
manipulate the global oil market. To measure progress, we should establish an interim goal of 75 percent by 2030. This
ambitious but achievable target would provide the American economy with a crucial degree of insurance against
future oil-price spikes, while supporting economic growth and a healthy balance of trade. We propose a threepronged strategy.
Economic crises will result in global war
Mead 2009 - senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign
Relations. (Walter Russell Mead, The New Republic, “Only Makes You Stronger,” February 4 2009.
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2 AD 6/30/09)
So far, such half-hearted experiments not only have failed to work; they have left the societies that have tried them in a progressively
worse position, farther behind the front-runners as time goes by. Argentina has lost ground to Chile; Russian development has fallen
farther behind that of the Baltic states and Central Europe. Frequently, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants,
industrialists, financiers, and professionals who want to develop a liberal capitalist society integrated into the world. Crisis can also
strengthen the hand of religious extremists, populist radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist liberal
capitalist society for a variety of reasons. Meanwhile, the companies and banks based in these societies are often less established and
more vulnerable to the consequences of a financial crisis than more established firms in wealthier societies. As a result, developing
countries and countries where capitalism has relatively recent and shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political
damage when crisis strikes--as, inevitably, it does. And, consequently, financial crises often reinforce rather than
challenge the global distribution of power and wealth. This may be happening yet again. None of which means that we
can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain
their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life during
the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg
and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold
war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a
pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf
Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching
toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't
get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.
Dependence kills US hegemony – it fuels opposition to the US, prevents
alliances and causes agreements that constrain US influence
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qU_zUN7
Cz0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw, 6/24/14) HL
The Task Force has identified five major reasons why dependence on energy traded in world markets is a matter of concern for U.S.
foreign policy. We have also examined a sixth, the relationship of military force structure to oil dependence. First, the control
over enormous oil revenues gives exporting countries the flexibility to adopt policies that oppose U.S.
interests and values. Iran proceeds with a program that appears to be headed toward acquiring a nuclear
weapons capability. Russia is able to ignore Western attitudes as it has moved to authoritarian policies in
part because huge revenues from oil and gas exports are available to finance that style of government.
Venezuela has the resources from its oil exports to invite realignment in Latin American political relationships and to fund changes
such as Argentina’s exit from its International Monetary Fund (IMF) standby agreement and Bolivia’s recent decision to nationalize
its oil and gas resources. Because of their oil wealth, these and other producer countries are free to ignore U.S.
policies and to pursue interests inimical to our national security. Second, oil dependence causes political
realignments that constrain the ability of the United States to form partnerships to achieve common
objectives. Perhaps the most pervasive effect arises as countries dependent on imports subtly modify their policies
to be more congenial to suppliers. For example, China is aligning its relationships in the Middle East (e.g.,
Iran and Saudi Arabia) and Africa (e.g., Nigeria and Sudan) because of its desire to secure oil supplies. France and
Germany, and with them much of the European Union, are more reluctant to confront difficult issues with
Russia and Iran because of their dependence on imported oil and gas as well as the desire to pursue
business opportunities in those countries. These new realignments have further diminished U.S. leverage,
particularly in the Middle East and Central Asia. For example, Chinese interest in securing oil and gas supplies
challenges U.S. influence in central Asia, notably in Kazakhstan. And Russia’s influence is likely to grow as it exports oil
and (within perhaps a decade) large amounts of natural gas to Japan and China. All consuming countries, including the
United States, are more constrained in dealing with producing states when oil markets are tight. To cite one current example,
concern about losing Iran’s 2.5 million barrels per day of world oil exports will cause importing states to be reluctant to take action
against Iran’s nuclear program. Third, high prices and seemingly scarce supplies create fears— especially evident in
Beijing and New Delhi, as well as in European capitals and in Washington—that
the current system of open markets is
unable to ensure secure supply. The present competition has resulted in oil and gas deals that include
political arrangements in addition to commercial terms. Highly publicized Chinese oil investments in Africa
have included funding for infrastructure projects such as an airport, a railroad, and a telecommunications
system, in addition to the agreement that the oil be shipped to China. Many more of these investments also
include equity stakes for state-controlled Chinese companies. Another example is Chinese firms taking a position
in Saudi Arabia, along with several Western firms, in developing Saudi Arabia’s gas infrastructure. At present, these
arrangements have little effect on world oil and gas markets because the volumes affected are small. However, such arrangements
are spreading. These arrangements are worrisome because they lead to special political relationships that
pose difficulties for the United States. And they allow importers to believe that they obtain security
through links to particular suppliers rather than from the proper functioning of a global market.
Loss of hegemony causes nuclear conflicts.
Foster 2009 (March 16, 2009, John Bellamy Foster, A Failed System: The World Crisis of Capitalist
Globalization and its Impact on China, International Debt Observatory, http://www.oidido.org/article.php3?id_article=808)
There is no doubt that the national security apparatus in the United States, in this period, sees China, as the great Marxist
philosopher István Mészáros has said, as its “ultimate target.”51 This has been most evident in the last few years in: (1) report after
report by the U.S. national security establishment warning of China’s growing influence in Africa and access to African petroleum
reserves, control of which are seen as vital to U.S. “national security”; (2) continual fears within the U.S. intelligence community of a
Chinese-Iranian or Chinese-Russian-Iranian alliance; (3) U.S. efforts to form a military pact with India; (4) concerns raised about
Chinese advances in space; and (5) conflict regarding Tibet, Taiwan, North Korea, and the China Sea. Although the United
States is economically bound to China at present through the production of multinational corporations and intensive
trade and currency exchanges-so much so that the two economies appear to be in a kind of symbiotic embraceincreased geopolitical rivalry associated with declining U.S. hegemony and the rise of China as a world
power create the possibility of a more explosive relationship arising. At present there are very palpable fears in
Washington’s higher circles regarding the continuing-and from their perspective necessary and non-negotiable-role of the dollar as
trade settlement and reserve currency, even in the face of current Chinese support for the dollar system. Washington understands
that China’s blind support for the dollar is problematic, especially in the event of a rapid devaluation of all existing dollar obligations
resulting from Federal Reserve policy. China holds $652 billion in U.S. Treasury debt (an increase from $459 billion at the end of
2007). Altogether it owns 10 percent of the U.S. public debt. A rapid devaluation of the dollar would only be seen in China as an
expropriation. An ensuing movement of China away from the dollar, however limited-and none but limited moves are immediately
possible-could drastically destabilize the entire U.S. dominated world economic order.52 At the same time as Washington is
concerned about the increased potential threat to its hegemony posed by the rise of China, it is also striving to contain or weaken
other states as well, such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. There is no doubt that the economic and ecological crises, to the extent that
they worsen, will tend to destabilize the system, intensifying these and other imperial tensions. Classic geopolitical theory suggests
that only by containing the rimlands of Eurasia can a single power control the globe. U.S. strategy at present centers on the Middle
East, as the strategic petroleum underbelly of Eurasia. But its primary goal is to defend and even expand its own weakening global
ascendancy vis-á-vis potential economic and military rivals. With the spread of weapons of mass destruction-which U.S. attempts at
consolidating global military and economic dominance actually encourage-it is not difficult to imagine a situation in which matters
will get out of control. The terror of a global holocaust emerging from such economic, ecological, and geopolitical instabilitythreatened in the first instance by the refusal of the United States and its Israeli ally to accept the failure of their policies in the
Middle East and the related mismanagement of world energy resources-is a danger that cannot be ignored. This grim reality marks
the failed peace-Pox Americana rather than Pax Americana-of a failed system.53 As the foregoing indicates, the world is currently
facing the threat of a new world deflation-depression, worse than anything seen since the 1930s. The ecological problem has reached
a level that the entire planet as we know it is now threatened. Neoliberal capitalism appears to be at an end, along with what some
have called “neoliberalism ‘with Chinese characteristics.’”54 Declining U.S. hegemony, coupled with current U.S.
attempts militarily to restore its global hegemony through the so-called War on Terror, threaten wider wars and
nuclear holocausts. The one common denominator accounting for all of these crises is the current phase of global monopolyfinance capital. The fault lines are most obvious in terms of the peril to the planet. As Evo Morales, president of Bolivia, has recently
stated: “Under capitalism we are not human beings but consumers. Under capitalism mother earth does not exist, instead there are
raw materials.” In reality, “the earth is much more important than [the] stock exchanges of Wall Street and the world. [Yet,] while
the United States and the European Union allocate 4,100 billion dollars to save the bankers from a financial crisis that they
themselves have caused, programs on climate change get 313 times less, that is to say, only 13 billion dollars.”55
Energy shortages cause conflicts – they destabilize economies and regions
Sweeney, 2011 - Center for Naval Analyses [Kevin, Ralph Espach, Marcus King, William
Komiss, Hilary Zarin, Leo Goff, Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement, Center for Naval Analyses,
October 2011, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/mab4.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
The U.S. has always pushed for the advance of freedoms, at home and abroad. As we have done so, there is
often a tension between this advance and the stability necessary to keep our nation, and other nations,
secure. We tend to push for increased global freedoms at a reasonable pace—again because of the value we
place on stability. It takes no leap of logic to see how global energy choices have often been de- stabilizing. (WWII
in the Pacific was principally about Imperial Japan’s expansion to satisfy their need for raw material and
oil in South East Asia.) As demand for energy grows and supply of petroleum shrinks, these effects may be
magnified. The global demand for oil has affected military engagements, been associated with economic
recession, reshaped geopolitical relationships, caused domestic political upheaval, and led to significant environmental
harm. Our own heavy use of oil has allowed or increased some of these de- stabilizing impacts. Reducing our use of
oil can change this balance, increasing the prospects for stability. It is within this context that we consider
the current national security implications of our oil dependence and, specifically, the implications of reduced
con- sumption of imported oil.
Methane hydrates can solve energy dependence – massive quantities that
are in more stable locations
Pellenbarg and Max ’14- , At Naval Research Laboratory and MDS Research [Gas
Hydrates: From Laboratory Curiosity to Potential Global Powerhouse, 5/26/14,
file:///C:/Users/k/Documents/MNDI%202014/Gas%20Hydrates%20From%20Laboratory%20Curiosity.
pdf, accessed 6/25/14, Proquest, KC]
The geopolitical implications of energy independence for Japan or India and for their relations with the rest of the
the prospect of abundant new energy resources are
driving the current interest in methane hydrate. Petroleum fuel currently dominates and underpins global
economic activity. Petroleum, however, is a finite resource. Further, there are clear political problems
associated with the distribution of petroleum resources on the planet . Because of the world abundance of
methane and the natural limitations to petroleum, a methane-based economy will inevitably supplant the
current petroleum-based economy. The only question is when and where will it develop first. Methane as a fuel offers
clear advantages over oil or coal: immense resource potential, ease of transport via in-place distribution
infrastructure, less carbon dioxide release per unit volume burned, no release of sulfur or nitrogen oxides,
and so forth. Further, methane hydrate serves as an analog for other gas hydrate species. Carbon dioxide hydrate is
world are staggering. Both energy security concerns and
increasingly examined as a potential storage medium for carbon dioxide produced by combustion of fossil fuels in general. Studies
are examining the feasibility of using liquid carbon dioxide or the corresponding hydrate to sequester carbon dioxide captured from
fossil fuel combustion. U.S. Navy scientists have defined the concept of using methane hydrate as the basis of a new technology to
desalinate seawater (U.S. Patent 5,873,262 issued 27 Feb 1999). Clearly, the future of methane hydrate research and
development is full of promise. Only within the past 20 years has the scientific community come to realize that
there is in fact enough methane on the planet to underpin a gas-based economy. Immense reservoirs of methane
occur as gas hydrate, newly recognized deposits of which are much more uniformly scattered around the globe. The Middle East has
no monopoly on gas hydrate deposits as it does for petroleum supplies. Hydrate deposits potentially large enough to
allow for energy independence occur in the EEZs of at least two major industrial nations, the USA and
Japan, and are likely to occur adjacent to most coastal oceanic states. There is clear consensus that there
is a lot of methane as hydrate in the sediments of the world ocean .
Methane hydrates solve dependence – they provide massive amounts of
energy
Plumer 13 – Washington Post Reporter (Brad Washington Post, March 12, 2013 “Are methane
hydrates the next big energy source? Japan hope so.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/12/japan-tries-to-unlock-the-worldsbiggest-source-of-carbon-based-fuel/))RF
How much energy are we talking about? Potentially, a staggering amount. The U.S. Geological
Survey estimates that gas hydrates could contain between 10,000 trillion cubic feet to more than
100,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Some of that gas will never be accessible at reasonable prices. But if
even a fraction of that total can be commercially extracted, that's an enormous amount. To put
this in context, U.S. shale reserves are estimated to contain 827 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Methane hydrates are key to energy wars – exploiting them solves all
shortages
Fitzpatrick, 2010 – Science reporter for the BBC [Michael, methane release looks stronger,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8437703.stm]
A recent technological breakthrough in Japan might soon render economically viable the large-scale
exploitation of methane hydrates. The potential of this new (and global) form of unconventional natural
gas is mind-blowing. Although a number of countries have already displayed strong interest in exploring their reserves, Japan
is most likely to lead this new “dash for gas”. It has already made the development of methane hydrates an important element in its
long-term energy policy. If Japan is successful, East Asia’s energy situation will undergo a dramatic change over the medium term,
with worldwide repercussions. But it will not be good news for climate policy and the transition to a green economy. I. The new
energy revolution Every story of a new energy revolution begins with a new scientific term to be incorporated into our daily
vocabulary. It also comes with a bunch of astonishing figures vindicating the sudden surge of interest around this new buzz-word as
well as astronomical future investments. After “non-conventional hydrocarbons”, now available in different flavours (“shale oil and
gas”, “coal-bed methane”, “tar sands”, etc), this time around the energy of the future bears the name of “methane hydrates”. What is
hiding behind this new scientific jargon? Put simply, it is methane, i.e. the principal component of commercial natural gas, trapped
in a cage of water molecules in a frozen state. As they are highly flammable, methane hydrates are also known as “burning ice” or
“fire ice”. Obviously, such a specific chemical structure can only be found in very particular environments combining very high
pressure and low temperatures, namely ocean beds and sedimentary rocks in Arctic Regions. More detailed information on the
chemical side of this story is available here[1]. As for the second ingredient for a successful energy revolution, i.e. a mouth-watering
economic potential, a few figures drawn from the data of the US Geological Survey (USGS) should be enlightening enough.
This highly respected institute expects “the
naturally occurring gas hydrate resource to vary from 10,000 trillion
cubic feet to more than 100,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas”, which would represent “more organic
carbon than the world’s coal, oil, and other forms of natural gas combined”[2]. Admittedly, that should be
sufficient to bring stars to the eyes of most market players. The existence of this type of resource has been well-known for quite some
time ̶ as a nuisance in pipelines since the 1940s and as a natural deposit since the 1960s. However, the difficulty to access the remote
and extreme zones where they are locked up meant that, until recently, methane hydrates were relegated to the “found-anddropped-until-much-later” box, along with nuclear fusion, hydrogen and the like. Exploitation was both technically hazardous and
economically unjustified. Methane hydrates may already be at the stage where shale gas was 10 years ago But a recent series of
technological breakthroughs has changed this picture. In 2002, a team of Canadian and Japanese scientists succeeded
in extracting methane from the Mallik gas hydrate site ̶ in the permafrost of the Beaufort Sea ̶ using heat. Even better results were
obtained in 2008 by simply lowering the reservoir’s pressure without resorting to heating, which considerably improved the
energetics of the process. But the real breakthrough came early last year, in March 2013, when a Japanese drilling ship of the Japan
Oil, Gas & Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) successfully extracted methane hydrates from the seabed off Central Japan
(Nankai Trough) during 6 days, using a similar technique. It produced 120,000 cubic meters in total, i.e. 20,000 cubic meters a day.
This was hailed as a particularly significant development, as ocean beds are thought to be the repositories
of the bulk of methane hydrates reserves worldwide.
1AC – Methane Bursts
Current Warming is releasing Arctic methane from hydrates – this will
trigger runaway warming and extinction
Song 11 – Pulitzer prize winning reporter for Inside Climate News (Lisa Mar 3, 2011,
Accessed June 25, 2014. “Up to 40% of Gulf Oil Spill Was Potent Methane Gas, Research Shows” Inside
Climate News http://insideclimatenews.org/author/lisa-song)
Another risk lies in the hydrates' contribution to climate change. Hydrates keep
methane out of the atmosphere by
sequestering them underground. But as the planet warms, more of that methane could be released into
the air. Deep-sea hydrates like the ones in the Gulf don't pose much of a threat, said Leifer. The deep ocean
warms so slowly that those hydrates will remain stable for at least thousands of years. Arctic hydrates, however, are
"extremely worrisome" because they're buried under shallow waters. Under the Arctic Sea lies an expanse of
permafrost that's half the size of the United States, and below the permafrost are layers of sediment containing methane hydrates.
The hydrates release methane, which get trapped beneath the permafrost. Cracks in the permafrost then
discharge the methane into the atmosphere. Such releases are already happening. Last summer, Leifer's
research group measured small methane plumes coming out of Arctic waters. Over a distance of about 930 miles, "everywhere we
went with the boat, there were little bubbles coming out," said Leifer. "This may be the normal state of affairs," he continued, but
climate change is heating up the Arctic more quickly than other parts of the globe, and "[the situation] could be getting a
lot worse." The Arctic has enough buried methane that a one percent release would quadruple global
concentrations of atmospheric methane. That's the equivalent of increasing CO2 by a factor of ten, said
Leifer. "It would be pretty close to the end of civilization as we know it, and this could happen. It doesn't
mean it's going to happen … but we want people to be aware [of the possibility]." Leifer will return to the Arctic later in March to
continue hydrate research.
Explosive methane bursts cause human extinction – the signs are appearing
now
Aym 2010 [Terrence http://www.globalresearch.ca/doomsday-methane-bubble-rupture-how-the-bpgulf-disaster-may-have-triggered-a-world-killing-event/20131 Doomsday Methane Bubble Rupture?:
How the BP Gulf Disaster May Have Triggered a ‘World-Killing’ Event
Ryskin’s methane extinction theory Northwestern University‘s Gregory Ryskin,
a bio-chemical engineer, has a
theory: The oceans periodically produce massive eruptions of explosive methane gas. He has
documented the scientific evidence that such an event was directly responsible for the mass
extinctions that occurred 55 million years ago. [4] Many geologists concur: “The consequences of a
methane-driven oceanic eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to be catastrophic.
Figuratively speaking, the erupting region “boils over,” ejecting a large amount of methane and
other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land. Whereas pure methane is
lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus spreads over the
land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The air-methane mixture is explosive at methane
concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locations near the
ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions and conflagrations destroy most of the
terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide…” [5] The
warning signs of an impending planetary catastrophe—of such great magnitude that the human
mind has difficulty grasping it-would be the appearance of large fissures or rifts splitting open
the ocean floor, a rise in the elevation of the seabed, and the massive venting of methane and other gases into the
surrounding water. Such occurrences can lead to the rupture of the methane bubble containment —it
can then permit the methane to breach the subterranean depths and undergo an explosive decompression as it catapults into the
Gulf waters. [6]
All three warning signs are documented to be occurring in the Gulf.
Methane bubble bursts would cause extinction due to explosive clouds and
super tsunamis
Aym 2010 [Terrence http://www.globalresearch.ca/doomsday-methane-bubble-rupture-how-the-bpgulf-disaster-may-have-triggered-a-world-killing-event/20131 Doomsday Methane Bubble Rupture?:
How the BP Gulf Disaster May Have Triggered a ‘World-Killing’ Event
Most disturbing of all: Methane levels
in the water are now calculated as being almost one million times higher
than normal. [7] Mass death on the water If the methane bubble—a bubble that could be as big as 20 miles
wide—erupts with titanic force from the seabed into the Gulf, every ship, drilling rig and structure within
the region of the bubble will immediately sink. All the workers, engineers, Coast Guard personnel and marine biologists
participating in the salvage operation will die instantly. Next, the ocean bottom will collapse, instantaneously
displacing up to a trillion cubic feet of water or more and creating a towering supersonic tsunami
annihilating everything along the coast and well inland. Like a thermonuclear blast, a high pressure
atmospheric wave could precede the tidal wave flattening everything in its path before the water arrives.
When the roaring tsunami does arrive it will scrub away all that is left. A chemical cocktail of poisons Some
environmentalist experts are calling what’s pouring into the land, sea and air from the seabed breach ’a chemical cocktail of poisons.’
Areas of dead zones devoid of oxygen are driving species of fish into foreign waters, killing plankton and other tiny sea life that are
the foundation for the entire food chain, and polluting the air with cancer-causing chemicals and poisonous rainfalls. A report from
one observer in South Carolina documents oily residue left behind after a recent thunderstorm. And before the news blackout fully
descended the EPA released data that benzene levels in New Orleans had rocketed to 3,000 parts per billion. Benzene is extremely
toxic and even short term exposure can cause agonizing death from cancerous lesions years later. The people of Louisiana have been
exposed for more than two months—and the benzene levels may be much higher now. The EPA measurement was taken in early
May. [8] Doomsday While some say it can’t happen because the bulk of the methane is frozen into crystalline
form, others point out that the underground methane sea is gradually melting from the nearby surging oil
that’s estimated to be as hot as 500 degrees Fahrenheit.
Rapid Warming causes international conflicts – instability, terrorism and
forced migration
Weiss, 10 -- Daniel J. Weiss is a Senior Fellow and Director Climate Strategy at the
Center for American Progress. (Daniel, Senior Fellow and Director Climate Strategy at the Center
for American Progress, Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress, January 13,
2010, http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-adangerous-habit/, 6/24/14) HL
Climate change is a major threat to U.S. and world security Meanwhile, America’s voracious oil
appetite continues to
contribute to another growing national security concern: climate change. Burning oil is one of the largest sources
of greenhouse gas emissions and therefore a major driver of climate change, which if left unchecked could have very
serious security global implications. Burning oil imported from “dangerous or unstable” countries alone released 640.7
million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which is the same as keeping more than 122.5 million passenger vehicles
on the road. Recent studies found that the gravest consequences of climate change could threaten to
destabilize governments, intensify terrorist actions, and displace hundreds of millions of people due to
increasingly frequent and severe natural disasters, higher incidences of diseases such as malaria, rising
sea levels, and food and water shortages. A 2007 analysis by the Center for American Progress concludes that the
geopolitical implications of climate change could include wide-spanning social, political, and environmental consequences such as
“destabilizing levels of internal migration” in developing countries and more immigration into the United States. The U.S.
military will face increasing pressure to deal with these crises, which will further put our military at risk
and require already strapped resources to be sent abroad. Global warming-induced natural disasters will create emergencies that
demand military aid, such as Hurricane Katrina at home and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami abroad. The world’s poor will be put in
the most risk, as richer countries are more able to adapt to climate change. Developed countries will be responsible for aid efforts as
well as responding to crises from climate-induced mass migration. five biggest companies importing oil from unstable countries
Military and intelligence experts alike recognize that global warming poses serious environmental, social, political, and military risks
that we must address in the interest of our own defense. The Pentagon is including climate change as a security threat in its 2010
Quadrennial Defense Review, a congressionally mandated report that updates Pentagon priorities every four years. The State
Department will also incorporate climate change as a national security threat in its Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development
Review. And in September the CIA created the Center on Climate Change and National Security to provide guidance to policymakers
surrounding the national security impact of global warming. Leading Iraq and Afghanistan military veterans also advocate climate
and clean-energy policies because they understand that such reform is essential to make us safer. Jonathan Powers, an Iraq war
veteran and chief operating officer for the Truman National Security Project, said “We recognize that climate change
is already
affecting destabilized states that have fragile governments . That’s why hundreds of veterans in nearly all 50 states are
standing up with Operation Free—because they know that in those fragile states, against those extremist groups, it is our military
that is going to have to act.” The CNA Corporation’s Military Advisory Board determined in 2007 that “Climate change can act
as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents
significant national security challenges for the United States .” In an update of its 2007 report last year CNA found
that climate change, energy dependence, and national security are interlinked challenges.
Methane release from Hydrates is inevitable and will cause catastrophic
warming – mining it is the only solution
Anderson 14 – BBC News Business Reporter (Richard BBC News, Published April 16, 2014
“Methane Hydrate: Dirty Fuel or Energy Saviour” http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610) RF
Methane hydrates are found mainly under ocean seabeds and Arctic permafrost However, this may be a far
better option than the alternative. In fact, we may have no choice. As global temperatures rise, warming
oceans and melting permafrost, the enormous reserves of methane trapped in ice may be released naturally. The
consequences could be a catastrophic circular reaction, as warming temperatures release more methane,
which in turn raises temperatures further. "If all the methane gets out, we're looking at a Mad Max
movie," says Mr Varro. "Even using conservative estimates of methane [deposits], this could make all the CO2 from
fossil fuels look like a joke. "How long can the gradual warming go on before the methane gets out?
Nobody knows, but the longer it goes on, the closer we get to playing Russian roulette." Capturing the
methane and burning it suddenly looks like rather a good idea. Maybe this particular hydrocarbon
addiction could prove beneficial for us all.
Capturing methane from hydrates prevents Natural release, which is worse
Anderson, 2014 – BBC Business Reporter [Richard 16 April 2014 Last updated at 19:02 ET
Methane hydrate: Dirty fuel or energy saviour? BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610
Accessed June 20, 2014] TA
But while methane hydrate may be cleaner than coal or oil, it is still a hydrocarbon, and burning methane creates CO2.
Much depends of course on what it displaces, but this will only add to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Permafrost Methane hydrates are found mainly under ocean seabeds and Arctic permafrost However, this may be a far better
option than the alternative. In fact, we may have no choice. As global temperatures rise, warming oceans and
melting permafrost, the enormous reserves of methane trapped in ice may be released naturally . The
consequences could be a catastrophic circular reaction, as warming temperatures release more methane, which
in turn raises temperatures further. "If all the methane gets out, we're looking at a Mad Max movie," says Mr
Varro. "Even using conservative estimates of methane [deposits], this could make all the CO2 from fossil
fuels look like a joke. "How long can the gradual warming go on before the methane gets out? Nobody knows, but
the longer it goes on, the closer we get to playing Russian roulette." Capturing the methane and burning it
suddenly looks like rather a good idea. Maybe this particular hydrocarbon addiction could prove beneficial for
us all.
1AC - Japan Cooperation
Japan’s energy dependence is unstable due to nuclear disaster
McCann, 2012 - Senior Advisor at Department of Defense of Australia [Linda, Japan’s
Energy Security Challenges: the world is watching, Australian Defense College, October 2012,
http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/docs/Publications2012/08_SAP%20Linda%20McCann%20%20Japan.pdf, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
Japan was facing significant energy security challenges before the triple disaster of 2011 . Scott Valentine et al
noted in January 2011 that ‘Japan is the most vulnerable of all OECD nations in terms of energy supply
security’.2 With almost no indigenous energy resources, Japan relies very heavily on imported energy
resources to fuel its economy and society. In 2010, Japan imported about 96 per cent of its energy
requirements. Almost half of the energy Japan consumes is oil and, in that year, Japan imported almost 90 per cent of
its oil from one of the most politically unstable regions in the world - the Middle East.3 Japan also relies
on the Middle East for some of its gas imports, approximately 27 per cent in 2011.4 Japan is the world’s largest
importer of LNG and the second largest of coal. 5 In addition, Japan has committed to significant greenhouse gas
emissions reductions as part of the Kyoto Protocol and meeting these targets with Japan’s current energy mix will be difficult. The
nuclear accident has brought a new level of focus on Japan’s energy security challenges - the world is now
watching Japan to see how it will deal with the implications of the nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant. While
nuclear power only accounted for 13 per cent of Japan’s overall primary energy consumption before the accident,6 Japan relied
on nuclear power as a pillar of its central energy security strategy, as a way of achieving stable electricity
supply with virtually no greenhouse gas emissions and reducing dependence on oil. Nuclear power was responsible for 30 per cent of
Japan’s electricity consumption before the accident and there were plans to increase this to 50 per cent by 2050.7 Most countries
face energy security challenges of varying degrees of urgency, such as guaranteeing access to sufficient energy when the world’s oil
runs out in 40 years.8 With projections of 1.9 per cent per annum growth in global energy consumption to 2030, and approximately
one half of this growth occurring in Asia, all countries, especially Asian net energy importing countries, will have to make some
difficult decisions in the years ahead.9 Northeast Asia in particular now imports almost 80 per cent of its oil.10 As economic growth
continues, this figure is likely to increase. This paper will argue that Japan was facing some significant energy security
challenges before the triple disaster of March 2011, most notably a very low energy self sufficiency ratio
and a heavy reliance on the Middle East for oil. The meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant has thrown Japan’s long
term energy plans to address these concerns into turmoil, and while Japan’s reliance on nuclear power has always had its detractors,
there is now very visible public support for completely rejecting nuclear power in the country . The cost of
rejecting nuclear power would be an increase in the cost Japan would have to pay for its energy, lower energy self- sufficiency,
and likely compromises in foreign policy, as Japan searches for replacements to fill the gap left by nuclear power in
electricity production. Rejecting nuclear power would also lead to a decrease in energy security for the short to
medium term, a likely inability to meet domestic demand, possibly resulting in blackouts in the Summer months, with
likely second order effects on local economies and unemployment.
Reliance on Foreign energy imports cripples Japan’s economy – it is
vulnerable to skyrocketing prices
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 [ Japan Energy: Overview, October 29, 2013,
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ja, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
Japan's higher gas demand for power and a tighter LNG global supply market over the past few years has
led to a significant increase in LNG import prices, from $9/MMBtu before the crisis to over $16/MMBtu in 2012. Japan,
along with other Asian LNG consumers, is negotiating lower prices for LNG contracts that historically have been linked to
international crude oil prices. Oil prices in the past few years have remained at all-time high levels for Asian
buyers, causing Japanese utilities, particularly those affected by the Fukushima accident, to incur serious
expenses from higher gas and oil purchases, resulting in net revenue losses . In response to the rising fuel
acquisition costs and attendant power price increases, METI is encouraging electric utilities to negotiate LNG prices to be equal to or
lower than the previous deal before they can pass on higher fuel costs to their power consumers. Japanese companies are beginning
to negotiate for LNG prices that move away from a tight link to crude oil prices to those that are based on lower U.S. gas market
prices. Asian LNG prices traditionally have been tied to international oil prices, which have risen sharply
since 2008. For instance, Kansai Electric reached an agreement with BP at the end of 2012 for a long-term contract based on a
formula linked to the U.S. Henry Hub price. After the Fukushima incident, Japan replaced lost nuclear capacity
with more short-term and spot cargo LNG, which made up about 27% of total LNG imports in 2012
according to PFC Energy. As a result, Japanese companies signed 720 Bcf/y of LNG purchase agreements after 2011. Industry
analysts project LNG imports to remain flat from 2012 to 2015. Reliance on LNG and other fossil fuels is contingent on how many
nuclear facilities are able to return to operation in the next few years.
The Japanese economy is key to the global economy
Dodrill 2013 [Tara Financial reporter for off the grid news Is japan the next economic domino to fall?
http://www.offthegridnews.com/2013/05/29/is-japan-the-next-economic-domino-to-fall/]
Off The Grids News radio show guest Tres Knippa predicted the economic collapse in Japan and believes
the fiscal woes of the Japanese will cause a ripple effect in the United States. The Japanese economic
problems mirror those caused when real estate market in America crumbled. When property bubble
popped in the Asian nation during 1992, the government also bailed out the banks, instead of allowing the
lending institutions to suffer the losses. As Knippa detailed during the radio segment with Bill Heid and Brian Brawdy, the
Bank of Japan lowered interest rates to zero. When the drastic drop in interest rates did not produce the desired
economic boost, a plethora of stimulus initiatives were enacted. All of the financial loss and massive
spending resulted in Japan incurring a debt-to-GDP ratio of 240 percent. Japan’s outstanding debt is 26 times the
revenue of the central government. Like America, Japan will struggle for decades to pay down their debt—if such a goal is even
possible. Japan has the third largest economy in the world. The economic collapse which has stricken the
country will ultimately be felt around the globe. The fiscal downfall of Greece may not have had a
worldwide impact, but Japan’s financial struggles will carry a far more powerful punch. The country
currently borrows half of what it spends each year. Such an unsound decision-making process will continue to increase
debt and place a more powerful burden on an already struggling banking industry.
The US must increase its Methane Hydrate research to fulfill cooperative
agreements with Japan
Platt’s Oilgram News 2013 [Takeo Kumagai - Platt’s writer Oct 31, http://www.platts.com/latestnews/natural-gas/tokyo/japan-urges-us-to-move-forward-methane-hydrate-27583047 Japan urges US to
move forward methane hydrate cooperation agreement Accessed June 27] HL
Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Toshimitsu Motegi, Thursday asked visiting US energy secretary
Ernest Moniz to move forward the two countries' bilateral agreement on methane hydrate cooperation, a
METI source said. The request was made during a ministerial-level meeting in Tokyo, where the ministers met for the first time
since they last met in Washington in July, the source said. Tokyo's request was made to move forward a state of intent, which
METI and the US Department of Energy signed in 2008, to work together to develop methane hydrate production , the
source said. The source, however, declined to disclose the response from Moniz on its request during the bilateral meeting. During a
lecture in Tokyo earlier Thursday, Moniz, however, pointed to METI's long-running research into extracting gas from undersea
methane hydrate deposits. (see story 0907 GMT) "Methane hydrates represent research challenges but a very important resource
potential," said Moniz, a physics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology before President Obama appointed him. "In
my former life at MIT, when we wrote on natural gas, we noted that methane hydrates could be the next big revolution following
shale gas, although it will take some time, certainly, to make this a commercially viable activity." Under the 2008 agreement,
the two countries said the proposed cooperation would enhance understanding of gas hydrates and speed
up research into their exploration and development. In March, Japan produced a total of 120,000 cubic meters, or
20,000 cu m/day, of gas from methane hydrate at a six-day offshore output test in central Japan, according to preliminary figures
released by state-owned Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation at the time. Production from the test compares with 13,000
cu m or 2,400 cu m/day of gas produced during a 5.5-day onshore output test carried out by Japan in Canada in 2008. Methane
hydrates are solid, ice-like deposits of water and natural gas, located deep underwater where cold temperatures and extreme
pressure causes the gas to condense and solidify. Although there are a number of technical barriers to methane hydrate production,
such as achieving sufficient flow rates to reduce production costs, known resources could be large enough to meet Japan's demand
for about 14 years, based on its confirmation of 40 Tcf of methane hydrate resources in place in the southern Sea of Kumano in
2007.
US methane hydrate exploration would be done cooperatively with Japan –
it speeds Japanese commercialization and promotes US development
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
Cooperation in the area of energy security is not new in US-Japan relations. For example, the two
governments established the US-Japan Clean Energy Technology Cooperation in November 2009.56 Some
of the initiatives that are outlined in this include bilateral cooperation for research with national laboratories and strengthening
interaction in the areas of basic science and energy efficiency.57 This framework was created because American and Japanese
policies in the development of clean energy technologies were aligned. Similarly, with the United States and Japan
sharing goals and interests in the potential of methane hydrate gas as part of their energy security, a more
formal joint cooperation scheme in this area may be created and integrated into the existing bilateral
cooperation framework in energy security. As in many areas, the United States and Japan cooperate on the
development of methane hydrate technology. Most notably, in 2012 JOGMEC, US Department of Energy
(DOE) and ConocoPhillips joined forces to conduct a methane hydrate production test that injected a
mixture of nitrogen and carbon dioxide into methane hydrate to release natural gas in Alaska’s North Slope . The
group released its results in May of that year and the test was deemed to be a success. Building on this test, the DOE is launching a
new research initiative to conduct a long-term production test in the Arctic, as well as research to test additional technologies that
could be used to locate, characterize, and safely extract methane hydrates on a larger scale in the coast off the Gulf of Mexico.58
Japan, for its part, will accelerate its efforts to develop methane hydrate technology that would be necessary for commercial
production so that they can launch commercial production of methane hydrates as early as fiscal year 2018.59 Prime Minister Abe
announced that this commercialization target would be included in the government’s new Basic Plan on Ocean Policy, which is
currently being created.60 The two countries should formalize a process to cooperate in the area of methane
hydrate extraction while enthusiasm is relatively high – at least in one of the partners (Japan). The United States
may initially see this joint effort as simply a means to support Japan in its enthusiasm for methane hydrate exploration, but it will
benefit in the long-run once the two countries have made progress on the development of this technology
and Japan is able to gain experience in utilizing it. With this experience, Japan may be able to help the
United States in methane hydrate extraction once the shale gas revolution ends. In addition to joint
public-private partnerships in methane hydrate research, the two countries should engage in research and
discussions on the impact of extraction on the environment and climate change.
Methane hydrate research saves Japan’s economy – it prevents foreign
dependence
Edmonton Journal ‘13 [Japan finds 'ice gas' beneath seabed; Nation seeks replacement for
shuttered nuclear energy, 3/15/13,
http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/lnacui2api/auth/checkbrowser.do;jsessionid=C39D263
D18C0EE8535AFD29A6C1F7649.MgHXAlEnyyAHeuzKo6U4A?ipcounter=1&cookieState=0&rand=0.90
51108519034639&bhjs=1&bhqs=1, accessed 6/25/14] KC
"Methane hydrate could give Japan its own energy source and more independence," said Tomoo Suzuki,
professor emeritus at Tokyo Institute of Technology, who leads a study onmethane hydrate deposits off the coast of
Kochi prefecture. "The question is whether extracting gas from methane hydrate can be economically viable." In Japan's test phase,
gas was produced in the Nankai Trough about 50 kilometres off the coast of the country's main Honshu island. The area is thought
to hold 40 trillion cubic feet of methane, equal to 11 years of gas imports. Tokyo hopes to bring the gas to market on a
commercial scale within five years. The breakthrough comes after 17 years of research and several hundred million dollars
of investment. It could be the answer to Japan's prayers, ending its reliance on expensive imports of fuel to
meet almost all energy needs. The country's trade surplus has vanished since the government shut down all but
two of its 54 nuclear reactors after the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and switched to other fuels, mostly liquefied
natural gas. It imported a record 87 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas last year at roughly five times the
cost of shale gas available to U.S. chemical companies and key industries, putting Japanese firms at a
huge disadvantage. Japan's Institute of Energy Economics said methane hydrate could be the "gamechanger" that restores Japan's flagging fortunes, acting as a catalyst for revival much like the shale
revolution in the U.S.
Methane hydrate development is key to the US Japan alliance – natural gas
cooperation is key to bilateral relations
Armitage and Nye. 12. President of Armitage International and Dean emeritus of
the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. [August 2012
http://project2049.net/documents/120810_armitage_usjapanalliance_web.pdf] SALH
Recent positive developments in natural gas could rekindle bilateral energy trade in ways few
thought possible just a few years ago. The discoveries of large new shale gas reserves in the lower 48 states have made the United States the world’s fastest growing natural gas
Natural Gas
producer. The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that the planned expansion of the Panama Canal in 2014 would enable 80 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleet to use the canal,
dramatically lowering shipping costs and making LNG exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast dramatically more competitive in Asia.2 The shale gas revolution in the continental United States and the abundant gas
reserves in Alaska present Japan and the United States with a complementary opportunity: the United States should begin to export LNG from the lower 48 states by 2015, and Japan continues to be the world’s
largest LNG importer. Since 1969, Japan has imported relatively small amounts of LNG from Alaska, and interest is picking up in expanding that trade link, given Japan’s need to increase and diversify its sources
of LNG imports, especially in light of 3-11. However, companies in the United States seeking to export LNG to a country that does not have a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States, and more
specifically a gas national treatment clause in its FTA, must first get approval from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy. Sixteen FTA countries, receive DOE export approval (although
other regulatory and permitting requirements apply), but most of these are not major LNG importers. For non-FTA countries like Japan, the permit is granted unless DOE concludes it would not be in the “public
interest” of the United States. The Kenai LNG terminal routinely received DOE permits to export from Alaska to Japan. But as the potential for LNG exports from the lower 48 states emerges, DOE’s permitting
process is coming under political scrutiny. In addition to the Sabine Pass LNG project, which already received a DOE non-FTA permit, there are eight other permits for LNG projects in the lower 48 waiting for
DOE approval. Activists oppose LNG exports on environmental or economic grounds. There are concerns that exports will raise domestic U.S. natural gas prices and weaken the competitiveness of domestic
industries that rely heavily on natural gas. A recent policy brief by the Brookings Institution refuted this claim and concluded that the likely volume of future exports will be relatively small compared to total U.S.
natural gas supply, and the domestic price impacts would be minimal and not undermine wider use of gas for domestic, industrial, and residential uses.3 Limiting LNG exports needlessly deters investment in U.S.
shale gas and LNG export projects. The United States should not resort to resource nationalism and should not inhibit private sector plans to export LNG. U.S. policymakers should facilitate environmentally
responsible exploitation of these new resources while remaining open to exports. Moreover, in a time of crisis for Japan, the United States should guarantee no interruption in LNG supply (barring a domestic
As part
of the security relationship, the United States and Japan should be natural resource allies as well as
military allies. This area of cooperation remains insufficiently developed . Further, the United States should amend current legislation
national emergency that the president would declare) going to Japan under previously negotiated commercial contracts and at prevailing commercial rates, ensuring a constant and stable supply.
inhibiting LNG exports to Japan. Ideally, Congress would remove the FTA requirement for an automatic permit, creating a rebuttable presumption that LNG exports to any country with which we enjoy peaceful
relations are in the national interest. Alternatively, Congress should deem Japan to be an FTA country for purposes of LNG exports, putting Japan on an equal footing with other potential customers. At the very
natural gas can
revitalize bilateral trade and also increase Japan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States. While
least, the White House should fully support and prioritize export projects associated with Japan as it considers permits under current law. With proper policy support,
the gas supply in North America is significant, there are concerns that the United States lacks adequate terminal, port, and associated onshore transportation systems needed to handle potential tanker traffic.
Without large infrastructure investments, U.S. gas production cannot grow. This is yet another valid reason for amending the law to grant Japan equal footing with other FTA customers for U.S. natural gas.
Another promising but more uncertain and longerterm area of bilateral cooperation is methane hydrates . Methane hydrates are natural gas crystals trapped in deeply buried ice formations. If
significant economic and technological hurdles can be overcome, methane hydrate reserves would dwarf
those of current conventional and unconventional gas. Methane hydrate deposits off south-central Japan
are estimated at 10 years’ worth of domestic consumption of natural gas, and globally the resource has been estimated to be as high as 700,000 trillion
cubic feet,5 well over 100 times the current proven reserves of natural gas. Methane hydrates are distributed widely onshore and offshore, especially in Polar Regions and outer continental shelves. 6 Even if, as
experts expect, only a small portion of methane hydrates could be developed, they would likely still greatly exceed
estimates of current natural gas reserves. Japan and the United States cooperate closely in research and
development of potential large scale methane hydrate production. In May, a U.S.-Japan field trial on Alaska’s
north slope successfully extracted methane hydrates by pumping in and sequestering CO2, demonstrating
both energy supply and environmental benefits. In light of the transformational potential of eventual
large-scale methane hydrate production, we recommend that the United States and Japan accelerate
progress on researching and developing cost-effective and environmentally responsible production of
methane hydrates. Moreover, the United States and Japan should commit to research and development of
alternative energy technologies.
Methane Hydrates: A Potentially Transformational Opportunity Deserving Enhanced Energy Cooperation
US Japan cooperation is key to Asian security and avoiding a Senkaku
conflict
Chanlett-Avery et al. 13. Specialist in Asian Affairs. [Emma, Mark E. Manyin Specialist in
Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart Analyst in
Asian Affairs. February 15,
2013http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA577937] SALH
Japan is a significant partner for the United States in a number of foreign policy areas, particularly in
terms of security priorities, from responding to China’s rise in the region to countering threats from North
Korea. The post-World War II U.S.-Japan alliance has long been an anchor of the U.S. security role in East Asia. The alliance
facilitates the forward deployment of about 49,000 U.S. troops and other U.S. military assets based in Japan in the Asia-Pacific. If
Japan decides to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement, it will become an even more critical element in the
Obama Administration’s rebalancing to Asia strategy. Japan has struggled to find political stability in the past seven
years. Since 2007, six men have been Prime Minister, including the current premier Shinzo Abe, who also held the post in 20062007. His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power in a landslide election in December 2012. The current opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) had ruled for three tumultuous years since their own watershed election victory in 2009 . Japan’s
leaders face daunting tasks: an increasingly assertive China, a weak economy, and rebuilding from the
devastating March 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster. In recent years, opposition control of one
chamber of parliament has paralyzed policymaking in Tokyo and made U.S.-Japan relations difficult to manage despite overall
shared national interests. Abe is unlikely to pursue controversial initiatives before the next national elections, for the Upper House
of parliament (called the Diet) in July 2013. Perhaps most significantly, the United States could become directly
involved in a military conflict between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islets in the East China
Sea.
Senkaku conflict would escalate to global war – it would engulf the Asian
region
Jade 2014 - JD Candidate at Cornell [Harry, Cornell International Law Journal, A Solution
Acceptable to All? A Legal Analysis of the Senkaku-Diaoyu Island Dispute., Ebsco, Accessed Jun24 2014],
LS
B. Alternatives to Pursuing International Litigation or Arbitration Rather than risk losing potentially valuable and nationally
significant territory in an exceedingly uncertain trial, Japan and China face a few additional alternatives to litigating their claims in
court. First, both countries can allow the acts of aggression to become gradually more and more pronounced
to the point that war will inevitably grip the region. On the one hand, this alternative would allow both countries
to pursue their immediate personal interests and permit each to entirely forgo negotiated compromise.
However, the Sino-Japanese War cast a long shadow across Fast Asia, and a major conflict would almost certainly undo
much of the economic development and political cooperation in the region following World War II .
Accordingly, neither Japan nor China should be eager to pursue armed conflict with each other. Additionally, damaging would
be the inevitable spillover of this particular regional conflict into the international sphere . As the United
States has agreed to support Japan in an armed invasion of the Senkaku-Diaoyu Islands, a spiral of
Japanese-Chinese military hostilities could force the United States to confront an increasingly powerful
China. Moreover, Chinese-initiated armed conflict would be a blatant violation of the UN Charter's
prohibition on the use of force,- an action that would likely further mobilize the international community
and international organizations such a s NATO.^^° Thus, not surprisingly, war would be even less desirable than
bringing a legal claim invoking current customary law.
Energy dependence will force Japan to restart nuclear power
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 [ Japan Energy: Overview, October 29, 2013,
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ja, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
Nuclear generation in Japan represented about 26% of the power generation prior to the 2011 earthquake
and was one of the country's least expensive forms of power supply. Japan replaced the significant loss of
nuclear power with generation from imported natural gas, low-sulfur crude oil, fuel oil, and coal that caused a higher
price of electricity for its government, utilities, and consumers. Fuel import cost increases have resulted in Japan's top
10 utilities losing over $30 billion in the past two years. Japan spent $250 billion on total fuel imports in 2012, a third
of the country's total import charge. Despite strength in export markets, the yen's depreciation and soaring natural gas
and oil import costs from a greater reliance on fossil fuels continued to deepen Japan's recent trade deficit
throughout 2013. Japan's current government wants to resume using nuclear energy with necessary safety
measures. The government believes that the use of nuclear energy is necessary to reduce current energy
supply strains and high energy prices faced by Japan's industries and end-users. This effort occurs in the context
of the government's focus on reversing two decades of economic stagnation in Japan and providing economic revitalization through
public infrastructure spending, monetary easing, labor market reform, and business investment.
Japanese nuclear power destroys human health from meltdowns
Fritz 2014-Writer for Deutsche Welle [Martin Fritz, Fukushima's radiation victims,
3/11/2014Deutsche Welle, http://www.dw.de/fukushimas-radiation-victims/a-17488269 // Accessed
June 29, 2014// LJ
But Shunji Sekine,
a physician in Namie, believes the radiation will eventually have a negative impact on
public health. In his medical practice in the city of Nihonmatsu, where around 230 relocated families are situated in a settlement,
Sekine has been examining the thyroid glands of Namie citizens on a daily basis ever since the nuclear incident three years ago.
"Children and young people are particularly vulnerable to the uptake in radioactive iodine in their
thyroid," the 71-year-old doctor told DW. High number of cancer cases "Although comprehensive studies are missing, I see a
connection between nuclear accidents and the occurrence of cancer," said the retired physician who specializes in
thyroid and breast cancer, adding that there are simply too many cases. A barricade blocks a road in a no-go zone in Namie,
Fukushima Prefecture, in January 2014, almost three years after the March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami disaster that triggered
meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. A fence marks the exclusion zone in Namie, some nine kilometers from
the crippled nuclear plant According to official figures, 33 cancer cases have been identified in about a quarter of a
million children and teenagers since the beginning of February. This translates into 13 cases for every
100,000 inhabitants, a figure almost four times higher than the world average for all age groups.
Nevertheless, the government of the Prefecture of Fukushima refuses to publish any relevant details about
the prevalence of cancer. Information requests made by Sekine pertaining to previous cancer cases among children and the
degree of contamination remain unanswered, with authorities citing data protection laws. But Shunichi Yamashita, Japan's top
thyroid expert and health advisor to the prefectural government, plays down the issue. "We still need to conduct further
investigations, and the time is not yet ripe for making any statement on this issue," he said. Mute authorities But the city of Namie
does not want to wait for government support - and once again become victims of a state blackout. Only four days after the explosion
of the nuclear reactor, orders were given to evacuate the town of Tsushima in the northwest. This led to the refugees being
transported through the invisible radioactive cloud, resulting in even more exposure to contamination than if they had stayed at
home. Officials in Tokyo knew this from their computer models. But they remained silent, as they feared a widespread panic. This
traumatic experience has led Namie to collect as much data as possible on the effects of radiation, says local health inspector Norio
Konno. "We want to be able to properly monitor the physical condition of our residents," he said. In case compensation claims were
to be filed against plant operator Tepco, evidence is needed that will stand up in a court of law. A doctor at a clinic in temporary
housing complex Shunji Sekine (L) conducts a thyroid examination on a child in Nihonmatsu, about 50 km (31 miles) from the
tsunami-crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, Fukushima prefecture February 25, 2013, ahead of the second-year
anniversary of the March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami. As the World Health Organisation (WHO) says children in Fukushima
may have a higher risk of developing thyroid cancer after the Daiichi nuclear disaster two years ago, mothers in Fukushima worry
that local health authorities are not doing enough. Picture taken February 25, 2013. Doctor Sekine examines the thyroid gland of a
toddler This is why Namie decided to provide a full-body scanner to the residents of the Nihonmatsu settlement. All people under 40
years of age can use the device once a year to measure the amount of cesium 134 and 137 in their bodies. By comparison, the
Japanese state offers this service only once every two years. 'Victims have no future' About half of the town's population
refuses to take part in the examination. Kazue Yamagi, for instance, says her 21-year-old daughter doesn't want to undergo a thyroid
exam. "Ever since she left Fukushima, she has avoided watching the news on TV. She doesn't want to get
married and says there is no future for victims of radioactivity," Yamagi told DW. DW RECOMMENDS Japan
prepares to mark three years since devastating quake As the third anniversary of one of the worst natural disasters to
strike Japan approaches, around 20,000 people have been confirmed dead or are still missing as repair work
in the northeast of the country continues. (04.03.2014)
Inherency
Ext – Not Pursuing Methane Hydrates now
US is not strongly pursuing methane hydrate research because we are
focusing on shale oil
India Times 2013 [A news publication, CHINA DISCOVERS MAJOR METHANE HYDRATE
RESERVE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA http://www.thegwpf.org/china-discovers-major-methane-hydratereserve-south-china-sea/]
To that end, last week a 499-ton survey vessel nosed out of the port of Sakai, once home to fabled gunsmiths and the finest makers of
samurai swords in medieval Japan and today the prospective launching pad for a new technological revolution. For the next two
months, the Kaiyo Maru No. 7 will survey the seafloor right off Japan's west coast, the first step in a years-long process that could
end with significant production of natural gas in Japanese waters. A promising methane hydrate site off the southeast coast was the
subject of earlier surveys. Japan is the epicenter of methane hydrates today not because it has so much of the resource -- quite the
opposite, most methane hydrates appear to be in gas-rich North America -- but because it needs the resource so
badly and is working faster than any other country to make fire ice a commercial proposition. The United
States and Canada
are awash in methane hydrate resources, found both under the seabed such as in the Gulf of Mexico and
in sub-Arctic permafrost. But both countries also have loads of conventional and shale gas, dampening
industry enthusiasm for a complicated, lengthy research process . Although some companies, such as Chevron, work
alongside the U.S. government on methane hydrate research, "there's a little less space in the industry for enabling
field experiments and data collection than there was 10 years ago," said Ray Boswell, technology manager
for methane hydrates at the U.S. Energy Department's National Energy Technology Laboratory.
The US is not focusing on Methane Hydrates due to shale oil
Fitzpatrick, 2010 – Science reporter for the BBC [Michael, methane release looks stronger,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8437703.stm]
Conversely, most other countries with strong methane hydrates potentials are, for various reasons, less
likely to take the lead in developing them. The United States and Canada have been engaged in methane
hydrates research programmes since the 1990s (sometimes even in cooperation with JOGMEC, as in the Prudhoe Bay in
Alaska). But these two energy giants presently have little incentive to rush ahead as they are still reaping the
enormous benefits of the shale gas revolution. Their proven reserves and output have been considerably
increased over the last few years, while the North American gas market is currently characterised by very low prices (around
$4.30 per Million Btu). According to energy consultancy IHS[10], this is unlikely to change before 2035. Canada even recently
decided to abandon its methane hydrates programme.[11]
AT:Funding Research Now
Methane Hydrates will take a long time with current research – there is no
incentive to speed it up
Anderson 14 – BBC News Business Reporter (Richard BBC News, Published April 16, 2014
“Methane Hydrate: Dirty Fuel or Energy Saviour” http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610) RF
"Methane hydrate makes perfect sense for Japan and could be a game changer," says Laszlo Varro of the International Energy
Agency (IEA). Elsewhere, incentives to exploit the gas commercially are, for now, less pressing . The US is in the
middle of a shale gas boom, Canada also has abundant shale resources, while Russia has huge natural gas
reserves. In fact, Canada has put its research into methane hydrate on hold , and deferred any additional funding.
China and India, with their rampaging demand for energy, are a different story, but they are far behind in their efforts to
develop hydrates. "We have seen some recent progress, but we don't foresee commercial gas hydrate production
before 2030," says Mr O'Rourke. Indeed, the IEA has not included gas hydrates in its global energy
projections for the next 20 years.
US methane hydrate research is misfocused – focusing on commercial
development is key to massive reserves
Greimel 2003—staff writer of the Los Angeles Times(Hans, “Japan to Plumb Depths for
Energy; The resource-poor nation gears up to pull methane hydrate from sea beds, hoping to convert the
frozen fuel to a usable form’’, Los Angeles Times, Proquest, 20 July 2003, Accessed 24 June 2014)DZ
Methane hydrate is a crystal structure of methane gas surrounded by water molecules, held together by freezing temperature and
crushing pressure. Separating the two yields the methane, or common natural gas. Knowledge of the substance dates to the 1890s.
But it never caught on as an energy source because it is found in Arctic permafrost and deep ocean sediments. Worldwide
resources, however, are massive -- 875,000 trillion cubic feet, or about twice as much carbonized energy as Earth's coal, oil
and gas resources combined, according to current estimates. Deposits around Japan are just a fraction of that, but Japan believes
that it's worth shelling out $120 million next year on methane hydrate research to boost its energy self-sufficiency. The island nation
imports about 97% of its natural gas and virtually all of its crude oil. Japan is not alone in pursuing methane hydrate, but
is perhaps the most desperate. The U.S.
Geological Survey has estimated the quantity of gas hydrates in the
United States at 336,000 trillion cubic feet, 200 times its conventional natural gas resources and reserves.
Congress has also appropriated millions of dollars for research, but projects are focused as much on
academic as commercial applications -- in part because methane hydrate on other planets is envisioned as
a fuel source for future space travel.
Solvency
Ext – Federal Funding Solves
Federal funding for methane hydrate research is key to development –
seafloor R&D is too much for industry alone
Gas Daily ‘7 [March 23, 2007, Scientists bemoan lack of funding for research of methane hydrates,
Lexisnexis, KC]
Scientists researching methane hydrates said they'll know within five years whether the "ice that burns" will
be an economically viable source of natural gas but only if the federal government restores spending for
further research. Methane hydrates essentially crystals of ice with gas molecules trapped inside exist in both the Arctic
permafrost and at great depths on the ocean floor. Funding for research into how to exploit them has dried up, with
no money provided in the Department of Energy's proposed budgets for the next two years. Scientists and
engineers involved in the effort were in Washington on Thursday to lobby policymakers for money to
research and develop ways to extract some of the estimated 200,000 Tcf of gas believed trapped in ice formations. "This
R&D is high-risk," Dendy Sloan, director of hydrate research at the Colorado School of Mines , told an
audience of federal officials from several agencies at a presentation sponsored by the United States Energy Association ."The effort
is too long-range for industrial interest." Sloan said a proof-of-concept well drilled at Mount Elbert on Alaska's North
Slope can produce gas from methane hydrates, but further study is needed to reduce the $25 million cost of the first well. "We
want to transfer technology from the permafrost to the ocean," he said. Nader Dutta, chief geophysicist for drilling
company Schlumberger, said the government needs to step up its efforts in hydrate research as a matter of
national energy security. "The government took the lead in the deepwater; it needs to do the same for
hydrates." Hydrates "are the tipping point," he said, adding that $100 million/year would allow scientists to
know in five years whether hydrates are an economically viable source of energy.
Investment is key to develop Methane Hydrates
Giraldo, 2014 - German Research Center for Geosciences [Klump, Jens, Schicks, Judith
Clarke, Matthew, , Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters Governing the Recovery of Methane from Natural
Gas Hydrate Reservoirs, April 2014, Energies (Journal), Ebsco, Accessed Jun24 2014], LS
Naturally occurring gas hydrates are regarded as an important future source of energy and considerable
efforts are currently being invested to develop methods for an economically viable recovery of this
resource. The recovery of natural gas from gas hydrate deposits has been studied by a number of
researchers. Depressurization of the reservoir is seen as a favorable method because of its relatively low energy requirements.
While lowering the pressure in the production well seems to be a straight forward approach to destabilize
methane hydrates, the intrinsic kinetics of CH4-hydrate decomposition and fluid flow lead to complex
processes of mass and heat transfer within the deposit.
Ext – CO2 Injection Solvency
Heated CO2 injection is the most efficient way to recover methane –
experiments prove
Haeckel, 2012 - Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences [Matthias,
Kossel, Bigalke, Deusner, Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (GEOMAR), Kiel,
Germany, Methane Production from Gas Hydrate Deposits through Injection of Supercritical CO2,
Energies (19961073), June 25, 2012, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
The injection of CO2,sc for production of CH4 from CH4-hydrates was tested experimentally for the first time. The technical
strategy of CH4 production from hydrates by injection of CO2,sc into the host sediment can be considered
as a combination of using an injection fluid for chemical activation of the reservoir with additional thermal
stimulation. As a result from this combination CH4 production from hydrates is accelerated initially since CH4
release is driven rather by thermal stimulation of hydrate dissociation, than by hydrate conversion . The
dominance of heat induced hydrate dissociation over hydrate conversion can be clearly seen from constant
CH4 production efficiencies and the absence of apparent mass transfer limitations which would be expected in a
diffusion-controlled conversion mechanism. However, the relevance of thermal hydrate dissociation as compared to hydrate
conversion afterthermal equilibration of the injected CO2 with the reservoir needs to be studied in more detail. The relative
contribution of thermal dissociation and mass transport controlled hydrate conversion will strongly influence the development of
the injection strategy with regard to lengths of injection and equilibration periods. As we have further shown in this study, heat
injection and transport are crucial not only to CH4-hydrate destabilization but also to flow assurance in
the hydrate-sediment porous medium. While different heat injection strategies are potentially feasible, the injection of
hot CO2,sc appears to offer some benefits over cold injection of CO2 combined with independent heat injection strategies,
because the combined fluid and heat flow prevents uncontrolled CO2-hydrate formation in the best
possible way.
CO2 injection makes continuous Methane Production Possible
Haeckel, 2012 - Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences [Matthias,
Kossel, Bigalke, Deusner, Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (GEOMAR), Kiel,
Germany, Methane Production from Gas Hydrate Deposits through Injection of Supercritical CO2,
Energies (19961073), June 25, 2012, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
In this study we presented the first experimental results on CH4 production from CH4-hydrates by injection of hot, supercritical
CO2. Based on the inventories of the components CO2, CH4, and H2O (Table 4) the overall process performance was analyzed with
respect to CH4 production, CO2 and H2O retention as well as energy efficiency (Table 5). The central finding of this study is that
continuous CH4 production can be achieved, if some initial heat is introduced together with the CO2. The
hot, supercritical CO2 efficiently activates the CH4-hydrate reservoir and thereby overcomes mass
transport limitations typically observed with cold CO2. However, the reservoir temperature also plays a crucial role
and definitely needs consideration when developing an exploitation strategy. At cold temperatures, rapid cooling of the injected CO2
can induce formation of CO2-hydrate with excess water causing congestions in the fluid pathways that may lead to complete process
failure. We could further show that both, CH4 production and CO2 retention is improved under conditions of slow CO2-hydrate
formation. Constant CH4 production efficiencies at all temperatures indicate that production is driven by fast thermal
destabilization of CH4-hydrates rather than by slow hydrate conversion. Surprisingly, the combination of mass flow analysis, volume
and energy balancing suggests that CH4 production is limited by gas mobilization rather than by CH4-hydrate dissociation.
Overall, it seems to be necessary to consider secondary processes for the overall CH4 production process.
AT: Not Economical
Advancements to efficiency are coming quick in the industry – new tests
prove
Kumagai, 2013 – Staff Writer [Takeo, Staff Writer for the International Gas Report, Platts
McGraw Hill, Japan urges US to move forward methane hydrate cooperation agreement, Source, Full
Date, http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/tokyo/japan-urges-us-to-move-forward-methanehydrate-27583047, June 29, 2014] KF
In March, Japan produced a total of 120,000 cubic meters, or 20,000 cu m/day, of gas from methane hydrate
at a six-day offshore output test in central Japan, according to preliminary figures released by state-owned Japan Oil, Gas
and Metals National Corporation at the time. Production from the test compares with 13,000 cu m or 2,400 cu m/day
of gas produced during a 5.5-day onshore output test carried out by Japan in Canada in 2008.
Methane hydrate exploitation is economical – new discoveries prove
Fitzpatrick, 2010 – Science reporter for the BBC [Michael, methane release looks stronger,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8437703.stm]
II. The shape of things to come: Japan as front-runner So how will this revolution in the making likely unfold and what will be the
market and environmental consequences? As always in the energy business, a map of resources merely reflects available knowledge,
which is bound to change dramatically as investments flow in and exploratory wells sprout in new areas. An educated look at
the map of the US Geological Survey ̶ available here[6] ̶ nonetheless brings some interesting insights. (Note
that the open circles represent recovered hydrate samples and the closed circles inferred occurrences.) The first conclusion is
that the new resource is, by and large, present all over the planet, both in traditional areas of fossil fuel
extraction and in resource-poor countries. The prospects of these methane hydrates deposits are therefore
just as diversified as their geographical localisation. What will the consequences of this geographical
distribution on the looming revolution be?
AT: Inaccessible
Methane Hydrates have huge potential – huge reserves and easy access
Anderson, 2014 – BBC Business Reporter [Richard 16 April 2014 Last updated at 19:02 ET
Methane hydrate: Dirty fuel or energy saviour? BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610
Accessed June 20, 2014] TA
Methane hydrate deposits And the deposits of these compounds are enormous. "Estimates suggest that there is about the
same amount of carbon in methane hydrates as there is in every other organic carbon store on the planet," says Chris Rochelle of the
British Geological Survey. In other words, there is more energy in methane hydrates than in all the world's oil, coal
and gas put together. By lowering the pressure or raising the temperature, the hydrate simply breaks down
into water and methane - a lot of methane. One cubic metre of the compound releases about 160 cubic metres of
gas, making it a highly energy-intensive fuel. This, together with abundant reserves and the relatively simple
process of releasing the methane, means a number of governments are getting increasingly excited about
this massive potential source of energy.
Mining methane hydrates is easier than first thought – they are not all
buried in sediment
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Review 2002 [Vol. 35, No. 2, Methane Extraction and Carbon
Sequestration http://web.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v35_2_02/methane.shtml Accessed June 20 2014]
KF
The accidental mining of methane hydrates by a fishing vessel caught the attention of Rod Judkins, director of ORNL’s Fossil Energy
Program. “This incident may suggest that some methane hydrates can be more easily recovered than we
thought,” he says. “Also, although these materials could have been broken off of outcroppings, it could indicate that
hydrates are not necessarily covered with much sediment, which would imply that their formation does not
require as much time as we have previously believed.” Judkins sees methane hydrates as the key to U.S.
energy independence, which would give the nation energy security. “We must increase our primary energy sources
to make us less dependent on foreign supplies of oil,” he says. “One way to do this is to tap the abundant natural-gas supplies in
methane hydrates, which offer us more energy than we have in our 1500-year-supply of coal. Estimates by the U.S.
Geological Survey and others place reserves of methane in methane hydrates as high as 46 x 1015 m3. This
is an incredibly
large potential energy resource, provided it can be safely and economically produced. Natural gas is a
versatile fuel that can be used for generating electricity, heating homes, and fueling cars and trucks.”
Methane Hydrates are accessible – geological surveys prove
Clarke 2008 - Chair of the Environmental Practice Group at Ropers Majeski Kohn
& Bentley [Thomas, 11-13-2008 Substantial quantities of extractable methane hydrates identified in
Alaska Emerging Issues Law Blog http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsroom/top-emergingtrends/b/emerging-trends-law-blog/archive/2008/11/13/substantial-quantities-of-extractable-methanehydrates-identified-in-alaska.aspx
Substantial quantities of extractable methane hydrates identified in Alaska . Methane hydrates (aka frozen gas,
frozen methane, gas clathrates, gas hydrates, clathrate hydrates) are water ice that contain a large amount of methane (aka natural
gas) within their crystalline structure [see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_hydrate]. Paleogeologists point to the melting of
methane hydrates as one reason why the "snow-ball Earth" (when the Earth was covered almost completely with thick sheets of ice.
Methane, or natural gas, is desirable because it is more environmentally benign than other hydrocarbons.
It has generally been assumed that methane hydrates would be difficult to access , and that only if hydrocarbon
prices remained high would it be economic to recover methane from these formations. The U.S. Geological Service has
identified formations that may be more economic to exploit. The area assessed in northern Alaska extends
from the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) on the west through the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) on the east
and from the Brooks Range northward to the State-Federal offshore boundary (located three miles north of the
coastline). This area consists mostly of Federal, State, and Native lands covering about 55,894 sq. miles. Needless to say,
environmentalists are opposed to any intrusion into ANWR. For the Northern Alaska Gas Hydrate Total Petroleum System, the
USGS estimates that the total undiscovered natural gas resources in gas hydrate range between 25.2 and 157.8 trillion cubic, with a
mean estimate of 85.4 TCF [the U.S. uses approximately 23 TCF of natural gas annually; see http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-
bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/13/MN9L1438D8.DTL&hw=methane+hydrate&sn=001&sc=1000]. Of this mean estimate, (1) about
24 percent (20.6 TCF) is in the Sagavanirktok Formation Gas Hydrate assessment unit (AU), (2) 33 percent (28.0 TCF) is within the
Tuluvak-Schrader Bluff-Prince Creek Formations Gas Hydrate AU, and (3) 43 percent (36.9 TCF) is in the Nanushuk Formation Gas
Hydrate AU (table 1). Given that relatively few wells have penetrated the expected gas hydrate accumulations in these three AUs,
there is significant geologic uncertainty in these estimates. The mean estimate of 85.4 TCF of gas within the gas hydrates of northern
Alaska is considerably less than the 590 TCF reported in the 1995 USGS assessment. It is critical to note that the 1995 assessment
only dealt with estimating the in-place volume of gas with hydrates, whereas this more recent assessment dealt only with technically
recoverable gas. Also, the 1995 assessment included the offshore Federal waters, which were not included in this assessment. The
USGS believes this methane resource can be recovered with today’s technology . Fundamentally, water is
injection to melt the ice, and the process water and methane are extracted; the process water will need to be treated. The extraction
process is deemed to be more environmentally benign than coat-bed methane extraction, which also uses substantial water. Given
the very substantial effect of methane on global warming, as noted above, any extraction process will need to be very cautious about
allowing methane to escape into the atmosphere. The U.S.G.S. Fact Sheet, Press Release, and Slide Presentation can be found at
http://energy.usgs.gov/other/gashydrates/alaska.html. Information on methane hydrate formations worldwide can be found at
http://energy.usgs.gov/other/gashydrates/.
AT: Transportation Problems
Methane hydrates solve problems of transporting LNG – it is more stable at
higher temperature
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
Another attractive feature of methane
hydrate as an energy source is that it is able to store large amounts of gas
under relatively manageable pressure and temperature conditions. The current preferred method of
storing natural gas is the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) storage method, which stores natural gas through
methods of cooling and liquefying. The LNG storage method can store 600 times the volume of natural gas, but the
disadvantage of this method is that the temperature must be reduced to negative 162 degrees Centigrade
to liquefy the natural gas, making the cooling system and storage vessel extremely expensive.7 Another method is
using a common gas cylinder, which allows for storing gas at room temperature in small amounts.8 However, this is also an
expensive method because high pressure levels and a large vessel are necessary.9 Methane hydrate, on the other hand, can
store 170 times its volume of gas at a more moderate temperature than LNG and at a lower pressure than
a high-pressure gas cylinder.10 This makes the research and development of a new methane hydrate storage medium
extremely attractive.11
Methane hydrates are easier to transport than natural gas- hydrate form is
stable.
Hiroshi 2009 – graduate at Chemical Engineering, Graduate School of
Engineering Science, Osaka University [International Journal of Chemical Engineering.
Hiroshi Sato,1 Takanori Tsuji,1 Tetsunari Nakamura,1 Koichi Uesugi,1 Takahiro Kinoshita,1 Masahiro
Takahashi,2 Hiroko Mimachi,2 Toru Iwasaki,2 and Kazunari Ohgaki1 August 2009//”Preservation of
Methane Hydrates Prepared from Dilute Electrolyte Solutions”//Proquest//Accessed June 16, 2014//LJ
Gas hydrates are crystalline solids that are formed by association of water and a gas under conditions of relatively
high pressure and low temperature. An important practical feature of gas hydrates is that, depending on the gas, a
given volume of gas hydrate can contain up to about 150 times the mass of gas present in an equivalent
volume of the pure gas in the standard state. The storage and transportation of natural gas in the form of its
hydrate has therefore been recently suggested as a practical measure [1-4]. As a general rule, gas hydrates must be
stored in conditions under which they are thermodynamically stable. In practice, however, when methane hydrate is
subject to temperatures of between about 243 and 270 K at atmospheric pressure, it becomes metastable
and continues to exist for a certain time at temperatures that are 50-80 K above its nominal equilibrium
temperature (193 K) [5]; however, at temperatures above or below this anomalous region of stability, methane hydrate
decomposes at rates that are orders of magnitude greater than those in the anomalous region.
Methane hydrates solve transportation safety – they are more stable and
lower volume than LNG
Mader, 07 [Jim, ASM International Researcher, ASM International Mar. 1 2007, Ebsco, Accessed
Jun24 2014], LS
Although methane hydrates will be the subject of a future separate article in this series, the potential
of clathrates to
address the two issues of reduced shipping costs and enhanced safety of shipments should be mentioned
here. Methane hydrates also reduce the volume of gas, but only to about 1/160th of the original STP gas volume.
However, the energy involved in forming these stable hydrates is lower, and no specially designed, more
expensive vessels are required to ship hydrates for long distances. Even more important, clathrates such as
methane hydrates are essentially completely safe, and would be a very secure mode of transport compared
to LNG. The idea of forming clathrate slurries with methane using a variety of materials other than water has not received
adequate attention to date. Variables to investigate are enhanced volume reduction of methane (approaching that of LNG) while
maintaining the inherent safety aspects of such a storage system.
Methane hydrates solve transportation safety – they are more stable and
lower volume than LNG
Mader, 07 [Jim, ASM International Researcher, ASM International Mar. 1 2007, Ebsco, Accessed
Jun24 2014], LS
Although methane hydrates will be the subject of a future separate article in this series, the potential
of clathrates to
address the two issues of reduced shipping costs and enhanced safety of shipments should be mentioned
here. Methane hydrates also reduce the volume of gas, but only to about 1/160th of the original STP gas volume.
However, the energy involved in forming these stable hydrates is lower, and no specially designed, more
expensive vessels are required to ship hydrates for long distances. Even more important, clathrates such as
methane hydrates are essentially completely safe, and would be a very secure mode of transport compared
to LNG. The idea of forming clathrate slurries with methane using a variety of materials other than water has not received
adequate attention to date. Variables to investigate are enhanced volume reduction of methane (approaching that of LNG) while
maintaining the inherent safety aspects of such a storage system.
AT: Oil Drilling Blow Outs
Methane hydrates risks to Oil Drilling don’t apply to plan
Sassoon, 2010 – editor of inside climate news [David, Did Deepwater methane hydrates
cause the BP Gulf explosion?, the Guardian, May 20,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/may/20/deepwater-methane-hydrates-bp-gulf, June
25, 2014] KF
Professors Koh and Sum are concerned that a focus on the dangers of
methane hydrates in deepwater drilling will
obscure their promise as an energy solution of the future. They are conducting research in the laboratory to create
methane hydrates synthetically in order to take advantage of their peculiar properties. With their potential to store gas
(both natural gas and hydrogen) efficiently within a crystalline structure, hydrogen hydrates could one
day offer a potential solution for making fuel cells operate economically . Still at the fundamental stage, their work
on storage is not yet complete enough to apply to commercial systems.
Non-Unique - Methane hydrates leak from oil drilling
Song 11 – Pulitzer prize winning reporter for Inside Climate News (Lisa Mar 3, 2011,
Accessed June 25, 2014. “Up to 40% of Gulf Oil Spill Was Potent Methane Gas, Research Shows” Inside
Climate News http://insideclimatenews.org/author/lisa-song)
BP's Deepwater Horizon catastrophe is commonly referred to as the Gulf oil spill, but liquid
oil wasn't the only
hydrocarbon that gushed out of the Macondo well for 84 days. Up to 40 percent of the leak was gas, mostly
methane invisible to the naked eye, reported scientists who published their findings last month in the research
journal Nature Geoscience. The study authors — Samantha Joye, Ian MacDonald, Ira Leifer and Vernon Asper — calculate the
total volume of discharged gas as between 260,000 to 520,000 tons. That is enough, if burned, to supply the same amount of energy
as 1.6 to 3.1 million barrels of crude oil. Gas and oil occur together in deep ocean deposits, so it should come as no
surprise that the Macondo well released large amounts of gas.
Empirically Proven - Methane Hydrates Wont Explode While Drilling Even
With Our Poor Development Technology
Monasterky; 1996 (Rich, Science News Online, November 9, accessed 10/13/03)
http://www.sciencenews.org/sn_arch/11_9_96/bob1.htm
Oceanographers first drilled through methane hydrates unintentionally, on an expedition in 1970. Although that encounter was
uneventful, research drilling cruises purposely avoided suspected hydrate deposits for 2 decades afterward, fearing they might hit an
overpressurized pocket of gas, which could blast away the drilling equipment. Concerns
over pressurized gas
gradually diminished, and mounting scientific curiosity emboldened researchers to try boring
through more hydrate fields. Starting in 1992, the international Ocean Drilling Program (ODP)
intentionally breached hydrate deposits several times without incident. On the recent expedition, Paul
and his colleagues drilled at three sites along the Blake Ridge, a large, submerged promontory 330 kilometers off the southeast coast
of the United States. Working in water depths of 2,800 meters, the researchers penetrated 700 meters below the seafloor with a
hollow drill bit that cuts away a core of sediment the diameter of a soda can.
AT: No Technology
We can overcome technological obstacles – recent Japanese successes
prove
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
On March 12, 2013, exactly two years after the Great East Japan Earthquake ravaged the Tohoku region of Japan and created an
energy crisis, the country accomplished something remarkable. Government officials of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade
and Industry (METI) announced that the state-run company Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC)
successfully extracted gas from offshore deposits of methane hydrate in the Nankai Trough, located on the Pacific coast of Aichi
prefecture. This was the world’s first trial production of gas from oceanic methane hydrates, giving hope to a nation that has very few
domestic energy sources, as this could be a step towards tapping into a new energy source that is still not very well- understood. At a
time when energy shortage is expected to arise in the near future, many countries, including Japan and the United States, are
looking to diversify their energy portfolios and find new sources. Although many challenges are associated with the
pursuit of methane hydrate exploration and the development of its extraction technology, Japan’s recent
success is raising confidence in the industry that methane hydrates may someday become feasible and
enhance Japan’s energy self-sufficiency. As the US and Japan seek to reduce their dependence on foreign fuel, the
potential for the development of new energy sources, such as methane hydrate, should not be ignored.
Methane hydrate drilling is feasible—DOE tests prove
Congressional Documents and Publications 12 (Who is the author? CongDocPub is just the
service. “Murkowski Comments on Success of Methane Hydrate Test: U.S. and Japan Complete Successful
Field Trial of Methane Hydrate Production Technologies”, Congressional Documents and Publicantions, 2
May 2012, Proquest, Accessed 26 June 2014) DZ “Congressional Documents and Publications” is not an
actual source.
the successful completion of a joint U.S.
Department of Energy and Japan field test of technology capable of extracting natural gas from methane
hydrates locked in the ice of Alaska's North Slope. "The success of this test is wonderful news for Alaska and
America," Murkowski said. "The test not only demonstrated that we have the ability to release methane
hydrates from their frozen state, but also that the same process can effectively be used to sequester carbon
dioxide. If we can bring this technology to commercialization, it would truly be a game changer for
America."
WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, today commented on
Methane hydrate technology is not too far off – companies are still willing
to invest
Petersen 2014 - environmental issues reporter [Bo Methane hydrate offshore is tempting,
perilous natural gas Jan 5 http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20140105/PC16/140109725 Accessed
June 20, 2014] TA
But Charter insists "it's not paranoid at all" to think (oil companies) are interested. In the Gulf of Mexico,
companies for years avoided drilling deep ocean oil wells because of the methane hydrate beds, the depth and distance from shore,
and danger. Now they are drilling in areas like Deepwater Horizon. "The bottom line is methane hydrates aren't ready
for prime time," he said, but the technology and need might be only 10, 12, 15 years away. In other words,
the Blake beds might be harvestable within the time span of the life of the lease.
Many promising technologies for methane hydrates
Pollution Solutions 2013[Burning ice could make fracking wastewater drinkable
http://www.pollutionsolutions-online.com/news/waterwastewater/17/breaking_news/burning_ice_could_make_fracking_wastewater_drinkable/26651/
Drilling likely will be required to access the natural gas in the hydrates. A
number of drilling techniques could be used to
destabilize the equilibrium of the hydrates and release natural gas. These include thermal injections, which
involve increasing temperatures, often by injecting steam, to dissociate the gas. They also include depressurization, or reducing the
pressure of the formation to release the gas. Finally, and perhaps most promising, is carbon dioxide injection. In this
process, carbon dioxide essentially replaces the natural gas within the hydrate, allowing for the release of
natural gas and the capture of carbon dioxide.
Will overcome tech challenges – petroleum proves – a national effort is
necessary
Pellenbarg and Max ’14- , At Naval Research Laboratory and MDS Research [Gas
Hydrates: From Laboratory Curiosity to Potential Global Powerhouse, 5/26/14,
file:///C:/Users/k/Documents/MNDI%202014/Gas%20Hydrates%20From%20Laboratory%20Curiosity.
pdf, accessed 6/25/14, Proquest, KC]
Less clear is the exact nature of such deposits, and details of the technology that would be required to tap such immense
reservoirs of clean-burning fuel. However, the industry view is that if and when hydrates are to be tapped for
their energy potential, technology challenges will be overcome, just as industry mastered petroleum
exploitation in increasingly deep land locations and offshore in deep water, for example. Summary The promise of
methane from hydrate has encouraged various governmental entities to initiate preliminary R&D efforts focusing on hydrate. Japan
and India are proceeding with well-funded efforts, and the USA has established, via Congressional mandate, a smaller national
program. The geopolitical implications of a new energy paradigm based upon energy independence
supported by a gas-based industry are of potentially immense importance for the USA and other nations
now having an oil-based economy. Carefully designed and implemented national efforts with effective
cooperation among government, academe, and industry at the national level can lead to such
independence based on the promise of methane hydrate.
We can overcome technical obstacles – recent successes prove – federal
leadership is key to partnering with industry
Ruppel, 11, Coordinator of the Georgia Tech Focused Research Program on
Methane Hydrates [Methane Hydrates and the Future of Natural Gas
http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/wpcontent/uploads/2013/09/Supplementary_Paper_SP_2_4_Hydrates.pdf] SALH
Despite the relative immaturity of gas hydrates R&D compared to that for other unconventional gas
resources, the accomplishments of the past decade, summarized in detail by Collett et al. (2009), have advanced
gas hydrates along the path towards eventual commercial production. The U.S. Department of Energy
(DOE), as directed by the Methane Hydrates R&D Act of 2000 and the subsequent Energy Act of 2005, has partnered with
other government agencies, academe, and industry in field, modeling, and laboratory programs that have
produced numerous successes (Doyle et al., 2004; Paull et al., 2010). These accomplishments have included the refinement
of methods for pre-drill estimation of hydrate saturations and safe completion of logging and coring programs in gas hydratebearing sediments in both deepwater marine and permafrost environments. Within the next 4 years, US federal-industry
partnerships are scheduled to oversee advanced logging and direct sampling of resource-grade (high
saturation) gas hydrates in sand deposits in the deepwater Gulf of Mexic o and completion of a long-term test of
production methods on the Alaskan North Slope. In Japan, the government-supported methane hydrates program (now called
MH21; Tsuji et al., 2009) has also relied on cooperation among the private, public, and academic sectors over past decade and plans
to conduct an initial production testing of resource-grade gas hydrates in the deepwater Nankai Trough in 2012. The current MH21
effort has grown out of earlier advanced borehole logging and deep coring in 1999-2000 (MITI) and in 2004 (METI), as described by
Tsuji et al. (2004, 2009) and Fujii et al. (2009). Canada has also worked with a consortium of partners to complete three major
drilling programs in the permafrost of the Mackenzie Delta (e.g., Dallimore et al., 1999; Dallimore and Collett, 2005; Dallimore et
al., 2008). Canada was the first country to ever produce small volumes of gas from hydrates during short duration (up to a few days)
production tests at these wells. Since 2005, India (e.g., Collett et al., 2008; M. Lee and Collett, 2009; Yun et al., 2010), Korea (Park
et al., 2008; Ryu et al., 2009), China (Zhang et al., 2007; Wu et al., 2008), and private sector interests operating offshore Malaysia
(Hadley et al., 2008) have also launched major, successful deepwater hydrate drilling expeditions, and Korea drilled the Ulleung
Basin again in the second half of 2010 (S.R. Lee et al., 2011).
Continued technological advances will solve methane releases
Pfeifer ’14 [Sylvia, FT.com, Jan 17, 2014, Methane hydrates could be energy of the future, proquest,
accessed 6/25/14, KC]
To extract the gas last March, the Japanese team used conventional methods . These involved first lowering a drill
about 1,000m to the bottom of the Nankai Trough. They then had to drill another 300m into the rock, drain the water out of the
hydrate layer to lower the pressure in the deposit and free the methane gas which was then pumped to the surface. Nevertheless,
more work needs to be done. Researchers in Japan hope to develop production technology that achieves
controlled release of the methane from the ice into the production well, thereby minimising the risk of gas
escaping into the atmosphere. According to the IEA, "the longer-term role of methane hydrates will depend on
climate change policies as well as technological advances, as meeting ambitious goals to reduce emissions could
require a reduction in demand from all fossil fuels, certainly in the longer term".
Even if technology is still in progress, we should begin development now –
shale oil proves
Pfeifer 14—Energy Editor of the Financial Times (Sylvia, “Methane hydrates could be energy
of the future”, Financial Times, 17 Jan 2014, Proquest, Accessed 24 June 2014)DZ
Sometimes called flammable ice, these methane hydrates also hold out the potential to alter trade flows
and the geopolitics of energy. Countries such as Japan and India, which have no indigenous sources of
conventional oil and gas, could suddenly find themselves important energy suppliers. Late last year, China
announced it had identified a big gas hydrate reserve in the northern part of the South China Sea. It is very early days. Test drillings
have so far taken place only in Canada and Japan, but the International Energy Agency, the western world's energy watchdog, does
not rule out the possibility of another energy revolution to rival that of the shale boom in North America. Maria van der Hoeven, the
IEA's executive director, said in an interview last year: "There may be other surprises in store. For example, the methane hydrates
off the coasts of Japan and Canada ... This is still at a very early stage. But shale gas was in the same position 10
year ago. So we cannot rule out that new revolutions may take place through technological developments ."
Methane hydrates are deposits of natural gas trapped with water in a crystalline structure that forms at low temperatures and
moderate pressures. Although estimates of the resources vary widely, experts agree they are extremely large. According to the IEA's
most recent World Energy Outlook published last autumn, even the lower estimates give resources larger "than all other natural gas
resources combined". Many estimates fall between 1,000tn and 5,000tn cubic metres, or between 300 and 1,500 years of production
at current rates. The US Geological Survey estimates that gas hydrates worldwide are between 10 to 100 times as plentiful as US
shale gas reserves.
AT: Landslides
CO2 sequestration solves slope collapses – it is geologically more stable
Haeckel, 2012 - Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences [Matthias,
Kossel, Bigalke, Deusner, Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (GEOMAR), Kiel,
Germany, Methane Production from Gas Hydrate Deposits through Injection of Supercritical CO2,
Energies (19961073), June 25, 2012, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
One elegant way to activate the methane hydrate reservoir is the injection of CO2. Since CO2 hydrate is
thermodynamically more stable than CH4-hydrate and both form structure-I, the exchange reaction will proceed
exothermically [16], adding heat to the system. Besides its attractiveness in combining energy production with CO2
storage as a measure to mitigate further increases in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, a
technological advantage is that it sustains the integrity and geomechanical stability of the sediments, thus
reducing the potential risk of slope failures.
CO2 injection prevents landslides – it stabilizes sediment
Fournaison 2005-- Director of Research Unit at Irstea (Laurence, Imen Chattia, Anthony
Delahayea, Jean-Pierre Petitetb, “Benefits and drawbacks of clathrate hydrates: a review of their areas of
interest”, Energy Conversion and Management,
http://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:36057466, INIS, Accessed 29 June 2014) DZ
An original perspective proposed by other authors [40, 41] would consist in swapping methane, encased
in hydrate, with carbon dioxide and, thus, limiting disturbances in underwater layers and preventing suboceanic landslides.
AT: Accidental Leaks
No risk of methane blowouts – deep oceans and long term stability prove
Gas Daily ‘6 [Experts say methane hydrates offer promise, peril, July 25, 2006,
http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/?verb=sr&csi=160956&sr=HLEA
D(Experts%20sa%20methane%20hydrates%20offer%20promise,%20peril)%20and%20date%20is%202
006]
Several methane hydrate experts contacted by Platts questioned the significance of Leifer's findings. Deborah Hutchinson,
project chief for US Geologic Survey's gas hydrates project in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, said scientists
don't know enough about the effects of global warming to determine whether rising sea temperatures
could trigger a breakdown of hydrate structures. "The hydrates will only become destabilized when they're
near the edge of instability," she said, noting that shallower hydrate deposits would be more susceptible to
blowouts than those found at greater depths. Keith Kvenvolden, a retired USGS methane hydrate
researcher, said the idea that gas releases could contribute to global warming is not new. "That story has been out a long time," he
said. Kvenvolden, who said he had not read Leifer's latest study, maintained that more evidence is needed to prove the
theory. While hydrates are known to be unstable, "they've been out there for millions of years,"
Kvenvolden said. "The cycles have gone on for millions of years."
Leaks inevitable – oil drilling
Sassoon, 2010 – editor of inside climate news [David, Did Deepwater methane hydrates
cause the BP Gulf explosion?, the Guardian, May 20,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/may/20/deepwater-methane-hydrates-bp-gulf, June
25, 2014] KF
The vast deepwater methane hydrate deposits of the Gulf of Mexico are an open secret in big energy circles. They represent
the most tantalizing new frontier of unconventional energy — a potential source of hydrocarbon fuel thought to be twice as large as
all the petroleum deposits ever known. For the oil and gas industry, the substances are also known to be the primary
hazard when drilling for deepwater oil. Methane hydrates are volatile compounds — natural gas compressed
into molecular cages of ice. They are stable in the extreme cold and crushing weight of deepwater, but are
extremely dangerous when they build up inside the drill column of a well. If destabilized by heat or a
decrease in pressure, methane hydrates can quickly expand to 164 times their volume.
US has developed safe drilling technology – tests prove
Targeted News Service 12 (“U.S. and Japan Complete Successful Field Trial of Methane Hydrate
Production Technologies”, Targeted News Service, 02 May 2012, Proquest, Accessed 28 June 2014) DZ
Successful Field Test on the Alaska North Slope The
Department of Energy has partnered with ConocoPhillips and
the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation to conduct a test of natural gas extraction from
methane hydrate using a unique production technology, developed through laboratory collaboration
between the University of Bergen, Norway, and ConocoPhillips. This ongoing, proof-of-concept test
commenced on February 15, 2012, and concluded on April 10 . The team injected a mixture of carbon dioxide (CO2)
and nitrogen into the formation, and demonstrated that this mixture could promote the production of natural
gas.
CO2 Injection solves accidents – it is more stable
Haeckel, 2012 - Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences [Matthias,
Kossel, Bigalke, Deusner, Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (GEOMAR), Kiel,
Germany, Methane Production from Gas Hydrate Deposits through Injection of Supercritical CO2,
Energies (19961073), June 25, 2012, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
Large amounts of natural gas, predominantly methane, are stored in gas hydrates in sediments below the seafloor and the
permafrost [1]. Current estimates of the global methane hydrate inventory range between 1000 and 10,000 Gt of carbon [2–5].
Motivated by these results, gas hydrate research activities worldwide center around the exploitation of this
potential new energy resource. The methods that are currently discussed to produce the methane from gas hydrates are
generally derived from standard techniques used in conventional oil and gas business, i.e., reduction of the pressure in the reservoir
and thermal stimulation, as well as injection of hydrate inhibitors, such as salt, to induce dissociation of the gas hydrates [6]. In
addition, the substitution of CH4 by CO2 as guest molecule in the gas hydrate structure has been proposed
as a more elegant production technology with respect to greenhouse gas policies [7,8]. All of these methods
have been studied in laboratory experiments to validate their feasibility as well as in numerical
simulations to gain first ideas about their applicability on reservoir scale. First production tests were carried out in
the permafrost reservoir of Mallik in northern Canada in 2002 [9] as well as in 2008 [10]. Gas hydrates were successfully
destabilized by injection of hot water and by depressurization, respectively, producing limited amounts of CH4 gas over a few days.
Further field trials in 2012 will test the chemical exchange of methane in gas hydrates by injection of CO2 below the permafrost of
the Alaska North Slope [11] and the depressurization technique in the first offshore test in the Nankai Trough [12,13]. Overall, the
conclusions drawn from those studies are that thermal stimulation by injecting hot water is slow and inefficient,
whereas depressurization seems to be the more promising strategy [6]. However, due to the endothermic nature of
gas hydrate dissociation, in the long run, the reservoir will cool down, re-establishing stable conditions for gas hydrates and
consequently, methane production rates are expected to cease after some time [14,15]. Thus, being able to achieve stable and
economic methane production rates will require a combination of depressurization and methods (re)activating the methane hydrate
reservoir. One elegant way to activate the methane hydrate reservoir is the injection of CO2. Since CO2
hydrate is thermodynamically more stable than CH4-hydrate and both form structure-I, the exchange reaction will
proceed exothermically [16], adding heat to the system. Besides its attractiveness in combining energy production
with CO2 storage as a measure to mitigate further increases in greenhouse gas emissions to the
atmosphere, a technological advantage is that it sustains the integrity and geomechanical stability of the sediments, thus reducing
the potential risk of slope failures.
AT: CO2 Rises to the Surface
Injecting CO2 in hydrates won’t rise to the surface – it is heavier than water
Oak Ridge National Laboratory Review 2002 [Vol. 35, No. 2, Methane Extraction and Carbon
Sequestration http://web.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v35_2_02/methane.shtml Accessed June 20 2014]
KF
West, together with Costas Tsouris of ORNL’s Nuclear Science
and Technology Division and ESD’s Sangyong Lee and
experiments in the SPS that demonstrate a possible approach for ocean
sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured, say, from the stack emissions of coal-fired power plants. Carbon
capture and sequestration are considered essential to ensuring the continued use of our abundant supply
of fossil fuels for power production without increasing the threat of climate change. “In a research effort started
with a seed money project and now continuing in a program funded by DOE’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research, we
found that intensely mixing water into liquid CO2 within a specially designed injector produces a pastelike, cohesive mass that contains CO2 hydrate,” West says. “The presence of CO2 hydrate, which is more dense than the
David Riestenberg, have conducted
seawater, caused this cohesive mass to be negatively buoyant, so it sank to the floor of the SPS vessel.” Sinking consolidated stream
of CO2 hydrate. ORNL researchers using the SPS are testing a novel injection technique that makes a paste-like composite of CO2
hydrate, liquid CO2, and water that is denser than seawater and, therefore, sinks to the vessel floor. Injecting CO2 in
this paste-like form may improve the efficiency of direct CO2 injection and reduce the environmental
impacts of ocean carbon sequestration.
AT: Solvency is Long Term
Even if methane hydrates are a long term resource, developing them now
means they are available when we need them
Los Angeles Times 12 (“U.S. taps supply of frozen methane; Energy Department, partners are
studying an icelike form that burns like a candle”, Los Angeles Times, 23 Nov 2012, Proquest, Accessed 28
June 2014) DZ
The U.S. Department of Energy and industry partners over two winters drilled into a reservoir of methane
hydrate, which looks like ice but burns like a candle if a match warms its molecules. There is little need now for methane, the main
ingredient of natural gas. With the boom in production from hydraulic fracturing, the United States is awash in natural gas for the
near future and is considering exporting it, but the Energy Department wants to be ready with methane if there's a need. "If you
wait until you need it, and then you have 20 years of research to do, that's not a good plan," said Ray
Boswell, technology manager for methane hydrates in the agency's National Energy Technology
Laboratory. The nearly $29-million science experiment on the North Slope produced 1 million cubic feet of methane.
Researchers have begun the complex task of analyzing how the reservoir responded to extraction. Much is
unknown but interest has grown over the last decade, said Tim Collett, a research geologist for the U.S. Geological Survey in Denver.
Even if methane hydrates are a long term solution, development now is
necessary to achieve it
Ruppel, 11, Coordinator of the Georgia Tech Focused Research Program on
Methane Hydrates [Methane Hydrates and the Future of Natural Gas
http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/wpcontent/uploads/2013/09/Supplementary_Paper_SP_2_4_Hydrates.pdf] SALH
The timeline for commercialization of gas hydrate deposits depends most critically on two factors: (1) research
and development advances to prove the resource and to surmount some of the other key obstacles and (2)
an economic, political, or natural gas supply climate in which there is urgency to develop the resource potential of gas hydrates. Gas
hydrates, despite the amount of methane they sequester, are probably the least likely of unconventional
resources to be tapped for natural gas within the next few decades, even if the economics or supply model changes
dramatically. Still, there are strong arguments to be made for a continuing R&D effort to address the
remaining challenges in advancing gas hydrates along a trajectory towards viability as a resource.
Activities undertaken now will be critical for ensuring the availability of this gas twenty or more years in
the future and for improving the energy security of nations currently lacking access to a domestic gas
supply.
Even if alternatives are long term, that is a reason we need to begin today to
replace oil
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qU_zUN7
Cz0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw, 6/24/14) HL
It is important to recognize that in most cases, change will be slow. The enormous magnitude of
equipment and facilities that comprise the energy supply and demand system implies that even once
technolog- ies begin to be adopted, full replacement of the existing facilities will take several decades.
Increase Efficiency of Oil and Gas Use The United States needs to adopt technologies and processes that require less energy use for
the energy services it receives. Consumers and businesses want energy services, such as transportation, lighting, and airconditioning. There are combinations of energy, materials, labor, and equipment that can be used to produce most of these energy
services more efficiently. For example, a hybrid-electric vehicle provides transportation services that are similar to conventional cars
but with different equipment that allows for much more efficient use of gasoline. When consumers and businesses have sufficient
information, they can be expected to choose the technologies and processes that provide the desired energy services at the lowest
cost from their perspective. However, the lowest cost option from the perspective of energy users may not be the lowest cost option
from the perspective of the United States when broader considerations such as energy security, environ- mental externalities, and
long-term welfare are included. Thus, the United States should adopt policies that encourage consumers and businesses to use less
oil and other forms of energy while still obtaining the energy services they need. While recognizing that there will be no
significant early relief, the United States needs to begin now to adopt technologies and processes that
allow for the use of fuels other than those based on petroleum, in particular those alternative fuels that reduce the
negative consequences that come from the country’s reliance on imported petroleum. For example, oil is still used for space
heating of buildings in some regions; however, those buildings could be heated by natural gas directly or,
for larger buildings, by efficient cogeneration of electricity and space heating. Cars and other light vehicles could be fueled with
increasingly larger fractions of biomass-derived liquids (such as ethanol), and vehicles can be fueled by compressed
natural gas. Light duty vehicles could be powered increasingly over time by electricity rather than gasoline or diesel fuel. The
current generation of hybrid-electric vehicles may be supplanted by ‘‘plug-in hybrids,’’ which allow some fraction of the mileage to
be powered by electricity that is charged from the grid, perhaps leading to an eventual transition to fully electric vehicles.13
Even if methane hydrates are years away, now is the time to begin their
development
Belahmidi 13 -- energy analyst covering North America and Northern Europe
(Claudia, Claudia Belahmidi joined IHS Energy in July 2010 as an energy analyst covering North America
and Northern Europe., Japan’s methane hydrates natural gas extraction – a game changer?, May 23,
2013, http://unconventionalenergy.blogs.ihs.com/2013/05/23/japans-methane-hydrates-natural-gasextraction/, 6/25/14) HL
A game changer? The
DOE speculates that methane hydrates could be even bigger than the US
unconventional oil and gas plays: a new gas game-changer. The agency has been pursuing a methane
hydrates research programme since the 1990s. The government-driven research into developing methane
hydrate resources underlines the potential these deposits hold for energy security. The DOE estimates
that the commercialization process could “take years” but noted in a press release last year that “the same
could be said of the early shale gas research… that the Department backed in the 1970s and 1980s”. DOE
estimates that even if just a small fraction of the assumed resources becomes recoverable, it could double
US gas resources. Outlook and implications Methane hydrates could potentially add significantly to the world’s
gas supplies and transform the global gas market and its trade flows, if and when production becomes commercially
viable. As Japan and, to a lesser extent, the US are keen to harvest potentially substantial onshore and offshore methane hydrate
resources, could the world be witnessing the early stages of another potential new natural gas boom?
AT: Impossible to Locate
Ocean Methane Hydrates are abundant- Blake Ridge proves
Pellenbarg and Max ’14- , At Naval Research Laboratory and MDS Research [Gas
Hydrates: From Laboratory Curiosity to Potential Global Powerhouse, 5/26/14,
file:///C:/Users/k/Documents/MNDI%202014/Gas%20Hydrates%20From%20Laboratory%20Curiosity.
pdf, accessed 6/25/14, Proquest, KC]
Hydrate deposits potentially large enough to allow for energy independence occur in the EEZs of at least two
major industrial nations, the USA and Japan, and are likely to occur adjacent to most coastal oceanic
states. There is clear consensus that there is a lot of methane as hydrate in the sediments of the world
ocean. To place the energy promise of methane hydrate in perspective, consider the situation of the Blake Ridge region
off the coast of Georgia, USA. The Blake Ridge has been well characterized and holds at least 1,000 trillion cubic
feet of methane gas in a single deposit. Yet the USA consumes only about 22 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of
gas per year; the Blake Ridge deposit alone could supply U.S. needs for some 50 years if a significant
proportion of the methane in hydrate there is recovered! It must be acknowledged that the apparent dispersed nature
of the hydrate in very clay rich sediments (i.e., low porosity) of the Blake Ridge area may pose significant problems to methane
recovery there. Other hydrate deposits have also been identified in waters of the USA’s EEZ (22). Clearly, hydrate-derived
methane offers an unparalleled promise as an energy resource. The methane could be used directly as a
fuel, or be converted to methanol or higher molecular weight organic fluids.
AT: Reserves Unknown
Even if exact reserves are unknown, hydrates have Lots of methane
Ruppel 12 (Carolyn, US geological service, Gas Hydrates and Climate Warming—Why a Methane
Catastrophe Is Unlikely, May / June 2012, http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2012/06/, 6/26/14) HL
The amount of methane trapped in the Earth’s gas hydrate deposits is uncertain, but even the most
conservative estimates conclude that about 1,000 times more methane is trapped in hydrates than is
consumed annually worldwide to meet energy needs. The most active area of gas-hydrate research focuses on gas
hydrates’ potential as an alternative source of natural gas (for example, see
http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/documents/natural-gas-2011/Supplementary_Paper_SP_2_4_Hydrates.pdf [842 KB
PDF]); the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Gas Hydrates Project has several programs addressing this topic (see
http://energy.usgs.gov/OilGas/UnconventionalOilGas/GasHydrates.aspx).
Minimizing solvency is irrelevant – any Fraction of development accesses
huge energy potential
Greimel 2003—staff writer of the Los Angeles Times(Hans, “Japan to Plumb Depths for
Energy; The resource-poor nation gears up to pull methane hydrate from sea beds, hoping to convert the
frozen fuel to a usable form’’, Los Angeles Times, Proquest, 20 July 2003, Accessed 24 June 2014)DZ
Retrieval methods are largely hypothetical and mostly untried. One idea raised in Russia was to pump nuclear waste under the
permafrost to thaw fields of hydrate. Undersea, the richest methane deposits occur in densely frozen sediment.
But it's a technical challenge to drill so deep and keep the drill bit lubricated . It's too soon to tell whether the
Japanese project will ever go commercial. And no matter what is achievable, Yonezawa said, it will be impossible to recover 100% of
the methane hydrate deposits around Japan. But even if a sliver can be harvested, it's worth pursuing, he said.
"There are still
a lot of uncertainties," he said. "But the potential is too big to ignore."
AT: Only solve in Some Countries
Methane hydrates solve globally – there are abundant supplies world wide
Pfeifer ’14 [Sylvia, FT.com, Jan 17, 2014, Methane hydrates could be energy of the future, proquest,
accessed 6/25/14, KC]
Methane hydrates are deposits of natural gas trapped with water in a crystalline structure that forms at low temperatures and
moderate pressures. Although estimates of the resources vary widely, experts agree they are extremely large. According to the IEA's
most recent World Energy Outlook published last autumn, even the lower estimates give resources larger "than all
other natural gas resources combined". Many estimates fall between 1,000tn and 5,000tn cubic metres, or between 300
and 1,500 years of production at current rates. The US Geological Survey estimates that gas hydrates worldwide are
between 10 to 100 times as plentiful as US shale gas reserves. However, although several governments have
investigated methane hydrates since the early 1980s, no country has been especially focused on developing them. Exploiting
them has to make sense from a cost perspective. There have also been other sources of fossil fuels - notably conventional
oil and gas and more recently shale - that have been easier and cheaper to access.
AT: CO2 Injection Infeasible
CO2 injection is feasible – experiments verify it
Janicki, 2011 - Fraunhofer Institute for Environmental, Safety, and Energy
Technology [Georg, with Stefan Schlu ̈ter, Torsten Hennig, Hildegard Lyko, and Go ̈rge Deerberg
Journal of Geological Research Volume 2011, Article ID 462156, Simulation of Methane Recovery from
Gas Hydrates Combined with Storing Carbon Dioxide as Hydrates Ebsco, Accessed June 25, KAF]
The second simulation case aims at the industrially rele- vant CO2 sequestration problem and is set up as a
one-well scenario with two consecutive steps (CH4 hydrate decompos- ition with methane production/CO2 hydrate formation) and
as a two-well scenario with simultaneous methane produc- tion and CO2 sequestration. These simulations
were carried out with STARS in a 2-D radial and 3-D Cartesian volume, respectively. In continuation of the pure depressurization
scenario, CO2 is injected with a constant rate of 8,000 STD m3/day in a partially depleted radial reservoir for three years. Within
this period, CH4 hydrate has decomposed further due to unfavourable P-T conditions during the injection of CO2. Simultaneously,
CO2 hydrate has formed around the well. At the end of the operation period, sub- stitution of methane hydrate by carbon dioxide
hydrate has occurred only within a radius of about 60 m around the well. The saturation of CH4 hydrate has decreased to zero, and
CO2 hydrate saturation has increased up to 40% and 75% just next to the well, respectively. In the caseof simultaneous CH4
production and CO2 storage in a two-well setting with a Cartesian grid, the same effects can be observed as
mentioned before. Since the pro- ductivity depends on the pressure gradient driving force towards the production well, a local
increase of pressure due to injection of CO2 leads to an enhanced gas rate (compared to the case without CO2 injection). A
maximum rate of more than 40,000 STD m3/day at the beginning of the production decreases to 35,000 STD m3/day after a period
of six years. Within this period, the produced amount of injected CO2 is almost zero. The performed simulations show that
depressurization with or without simultaneous CO2 injection is a practicable way to produce methane
from subsea hydrate fields with assured rates over many years. Thermal stimulation is an alternative from a
thermodynamic point of view, but there is a lack of appropriate technology to heat up subsea sediment in a wider range around a
production well. Some promising ideas (as methane-driven point heaters, e.g.) will be investi- gated in subsequent work.
AT: Net loss of Energy
CO2 injection doesn’t use more energy than it produces
Haeckel, 2012 - Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences [Matthias,
Kossel, Bigalke, Deusner, Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (GEOMAR), Kiel,
Germany, Methane Production from Gas Hydrate Deposits through Injection of Supercritical CO2,
Energies (19961073), June 25, 2012, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
Calculations of energy efficiency of CH4 production resulting from injection of hot CO2,sc seemingly
indicated substantial heat loss to secondary processes, which has raised questions towards the energetic
feasibility of CO2,sc injection. However, this production focused energy balance is somewhat misleading,
since CH4 release is apparently exceeding CH4 production drastically. In that case, CH4,g mobilization is the
actual problem limiting CH4 production, rather than energy efficiency . This aspect will be discussed in detail in the
following paragraph.
AT: Can’t solve Deepwater
Japan has proven Deepwater Methane Hydrates recovery is possible
Yamamoto ’13, JOGMEC Representative.
[http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/OilGas/methane%20hydrates/MHNews_2013_October.pdf, Koji Yamamoto. 2013.] SALH
To prove the applicability of depressurization as a feasible method for producing methane from hydrates
in deepwater sediments, Japan Oil, Gas, and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) conducted the first
offshore methane hydrate production test off the coast of Honshu Island this past March, with funding from the
Ministry of Economic Trade and Industry. The production test site is located on the margin of the Daini Atsumi Knoll, off the coasts
of Atsumi and Shima peninsulas, in the eastern Nankai Trough, Japan. The site was selected based on seismic and well data
collected from 2001-2008 that indicate methane hydrate-rich sedimentary layers in this area.
Seafloor methane hydrate mining is feasible – Japan proves
New York Times ’13 – [Hiroko Tabuchi,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/business/global/japan-says-it-is-first-to-tap-methane-hydratedeposit.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, 3/13/13, Energy Coup for Japan; Flammable Ice, accessed 3/12/15]
KC
Jogmec estimates that the surrounding area in the Nankai submarine trough holds at least 1.1
trillion cubic meters, or 39 trillion cubic feet, of methane hydrate, enough to meet 11 years’ worth of gas imports to Japan. A
separate rough estimate by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology has put the total amount of
methane hydrate in the waters surrounding Japan at more than 7 trillion cubic meters, or what researchers have long said is closer
to 100 years’ worth of Japan’s natural gas needs. “Now
we know that extraction is possible,” said Mikio Satoh,
next step is
to see how far Japan can get costs down to make the technology economically viable.” Methane
a senior researcher in marine geology at the institute who was not involved in the Nankai trough expedition. “The
hydrate is a sherbetlike substance that can form when methane gas is trapped in ice below the seabed or underground. Though it
looks like ice, it burns when it is heated. Experts
say there are abundant deposits of gas hydrates in the
seabed and in some Arctic regions. Japan, together with Canada, has already succeeded in extracting gas from methane
hydrate trapped in permafrost soil. American researchers are carrying out similar test projects on the North Slope of Alaska. The
difficulty had long been how to extract gas from the methane hydrate far below the seabed, where
much of the deposits lie. In onshore tests, Japanese researchers explored using hot water to warm the methane hydrate, and tried
lowering pressure to free the methane molecules. Japan decided to use depressurization, partly because pumping warm water under
the seabed would itself require a lot of energy. “Gas hydrates have always been seen as a potentially vast energy source, but the
question was, how do we extract gas from under the ocean?” said Ryo Matsumoto, a professor in geology at Meiji University in
Tokyo who has led research into Japan’s hydrate deposits. “Now we’ve cleared one big hurdle.” According to the United
States Geological Survey, recent mapping off the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts shows large offshore accumulations of
methane hydrates. Canada, China, Norway and the United States are also exploring hydrate deposits. Scientists at the geological
survey note, however, that there is still a limited understanding of how drilling for hydrates might affect the environment,
particularly the possible release of methane into the atmosphere, and are calling for continued research and monitoring.
Energy Dependence Adv
Ext – Energy Dependence Kills Economy
Dependence causes inflation – price indexes prove
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
Oil prices indirectly impact both budget revenues and expenditures through their effect on the consumer
price index and inflation. The index, which is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes
in the cost of a typical basket of consumer goods and services. Because petroleum products are such an
important component of American households’ budgets – both directly through gasoline and home heating oil
purchases and indirectly through commercial flight, transit, and food prices – crude oil prices have a
significant impact on CPI- calculations. Indeed, energy commodities, including fuel oil and motor fuel, represent
7.0% of the CPI goods and services “basket”, meaning that even small price increases can significantly increase
CPI levels.29 Oil price changes similarly feed into the prices charged by businesses for nearly all goods and
services. The CPI, specifically the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), in turn is used to
determine the cost of living adjustments (COLAs) for government wages, Social Security, and federal pensions.
From 2002-2012, the price level for the basket of goods including energy prices (CPI-W, All Items) increased 28.1%.
When excluding energy prices, however, the index (CPI-W, All Items less Energy) increased by only 22.3% over the same period.30
Hence, the rapid increases in energy prices (primarily petroleum products) over the last decade have caused
COLA adjustments to be at least 20% larger than they would have been if energy prices had risen at the rate of all
other goods. These higher Social Security payments are appropriate policy—they protect senior citizens, pensioners, and valued
employees against inflation. Still, the impact of this change is that federal outlays are tens of billions of dollars
higher than they otherwise would be.
Dependence kills the economy – trade deficits, business confidence and oil
shocks – empirically proven
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
Another channel through which high oil prices affect the federal budget, however, is through the impact on economic growth. As
explained in a recent analysis by Greene et. al. (2013), oil dependence imposes costs on the U.S. economy in three
key ways: (1) a transfer of wealth to oil exporters; (2) the deadweight loss of GDP from the higher price of
oil; and (3) dislocation losses from “unexpected” oil price changes (so-called oil shocks).31 The researchers
estimate that through these impacts, high and volatile oil prices over the past four decades reduced the
overall size of the U.S. economy by nearly $3 trillion.32 A number of other studies quantify the economic impact of an
increase in the price of oil in a given year. A 2012 CBO report estimated that a sustained $10 increase in the price per barrel would
reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2%.33 Various other economic analyses have estimated that the impact of such an increase would be even
larger, in the range of 0.2% to 1.0% of GDP.34 High oil prices are also likely a key factor in exacerbating and even
triggering recessions. Hamilton (2005), for example, notes that 9 out of 10 recessions in the post- World War II
era were preceded by significant oil price increases.35 In a more recent paper, the same author further examines the
relationship between the increase in oil prices from 2007 to 2008 and the recession, concluding that oil prices materially
contributed to the recession with particularly significant impacts on consumer spending and automobile purchases.36
Trade deficits cause US economic crisis- Empirics
Adil 2008 – Professor @ University of Illinois [Mouhammed, Adil Ph.D. The Journal of Applied Business
and Economics8.3 (Aug 2008)//Accessed July 1, 2014//Mitchell's General Theory of the Business Cycle and the Recent Crisis in the
U.S. Economy//Proquest] LJ
This paper attempts to explain the current crisis in the U.S. economy. The tool that handles the situation is Wesley
Mitchell's theory of the business cycle. The theory claims that rising costs and declining revenues will squeeze the profit margin.
Rising costs are generated by the increased prices of raw materials, wages, rents, administrative office, taxes, interests, and the like.
The decline of revenues is explained by lower investment and consumption expenditures, a less volume of exports
and more imports, lower prices, a higher exchange rate. Empirically, this theory successfully explains the current
crisis in the US economy. Basic variables explaining the crisis are credit crunch, international trade deficit,
initial higher interest rates, and higher oil prices. Deficit spending explains the increases in inflation and the decreases in the dollar's
value. A quick policy remedy is to reduce government spending by finding a new efficient method for fighting terrorism and to
redirect public spending for developing the infrastructure, education, innovations, health care, and technologies.
Dependence increases the deficit – it increases prices which increases
inflation
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
This report focuses on the intersection of two issues that have concerned policymakers and the American public for decades: heavy
U.S. dependence on oil and large federal budget deficits. Surging oil prices and trillion dollar federal
deficits in recent years have magnified these concerns. While both topics have been independently studied, discussed,
and debated, little attention has been paid to the interactions between these two factors. This report explores the impact of
oil prices and oil dependence on the U.S. federal budget. Specifically, it looks at how the quadrupling of oil
prices over the last decade has affected federal budget deficits and debt. It also examines whether
reducing dependence on oil in the future could improve the federal budget balance . This is done in a two-part
analysis that uses the University of Maryland’s Inforum LIFT macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy to help quantify the direct
and indirect effects that oil prices and oil dependence have on the budget. The Part One analysis estimates how historic federal
deficits and debt levels would have been different if oil prices had risen at the same rate as the price of
other goods and services from 2002 to 2012, instead of increasing dramatically over this period. The results from this
modeling exercise indicate that, by 2012, lower oil prices would have resulted in the U.S. federal deficit being
$235 billion lower; the accumulated U.S. government debt being $1.2 trillion lower; and the debt-to-GDP ratio being 6.6
percentage points lower. Some of the drivers of the would-be impacts of lower oil prices are direct, such as the reduction in
government expenditures on fuel. The more significant drivers, however, are indirect, and include reduced inflation, which reduces
cost of living adjustments for Social Security payments, and higher economic growth, which raises incomes and therefore income tax
receipts. The Part Two analysis estimates how reducing petroleum dependence through improved fuel economy and the increased
use of alternative fuel vehicles in the transportation sector could affect the U.S. economy and federal budget in the future. The
analysis compares the economic and budgetary outcomes from such a scenario with those from a Baseline Scenario in which
petroleum use remains roughly flat. The study finds that reducing oil dependence through the increased use of alternative fuel
vehicles and improved fuel economy would
make the federal budget deficit $492 billion lower in 2040, cause the
federal government to accumulate $5 trillion less debt over the 2014-2040 period, and result in a federal debtto-GDP ratio that is 10.3 percentage points lower in 2040.
Dependence increases the trade deficit – empirical proof
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
The trade deficit reached $702 billion in 2008, driven by a nearly $400 billion petroleum trade deficit as
oil prices peaked at more than $140 per barrel.1 Indeed, the nation’s imbalance between petroleum
consumption and production has represented more than half of the overall U.S. trade deficit every year
since 2008, even with record growth of domestic oil production. Despite the continuation of the domestic
oil production surge, the most widely used forecasts predict only a modest further reduction in the volume of
oil imports.2 These forecasts also project steadily increasing oil prices that will continue to raise the cost of
America’s oil dependence. Policy actions that reduce the federal budget deficit and the petroleum trade
deficit can contribute to improved economic growth. In particular, several analyses have focused on the degree to which
the combination of rising oil prices and dependence on imported oil affect economic growth and job creation. Other studies have
highlighted the negative impacts that large and persistent budget deficits can have on growth. It appears, however, that there is little
available research to date on the relationship of high oil prices and oil dependence with the federal government’s budget.
Dependence harms the US economy – slower growth and higher trade
deficits
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
When policymakers and researchers talk about the impacts of the nation’s petroleum dependence, they commonly point to the
High oil prices and oil price volatility over the last
four decades have had harmful effects on the economy. Each oil price increase translates into a greater
leakage of income out of the country to pay for imports, directly reducing domestic expenditure and output
growth. Abrupt behavioral adjustments to business and consumer activity in response to higher oil prices
and the associated higher inflation further hurts economic growth. Indeed, some studies have documented
that oil price shocks have triggered or exacerbated each U.S. recession since 1970
Larger trade
deficits: Net petroleum imports accounted for more than half of the United States’ $535 billion trade
deficit in 2012. Since trade deficits are largely financed by foreign borrowing, this suggests that increases in oil prices have resulted
in a large-scale increase in U.S. indebtedness.18
Oil dependence kills the economy by increasing the deficit
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
Economic researchers commonly identify reduced economic growth, current account deficits, weakened national security, and
environmental harm as negative consequences of the nation’s oil dependence. Missed in these discussions, however, is the
relationship between oil prices, U.S. oil dependence, and the U.S. federal budget. The results of the analyses in this report
identify oil prices and dependence as meaningful contributors to both the current fiscal imbalance and the
worrisome federal budget outlook. The results of Part One indicate that U.S. dependence on oil played a
significant role in the doubling of government debt as a percentage of GDP. This comes about through the
direct and indirect impacts of the quadrupling of oil prices over the past decade . While the impact of and policy
responses to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 were the salient fiscal drivers over this time, the impact of rising oil prices are
estimated to account for $1.2 trillion of the increased debt stock. As such, this analysis suggests that had oil prices not increased
faster than the prices of other goods and services in the period of 2002-12, the current debt-to-GDP ratio would have been about 6.6
percentage points lower than it was at the end of 2012. The results of Part Two suggest that reducing the United States’ oil
dependence in the future would improve the federal budget outlook. The analysis finds that greater use of
alternative fuel vehicles and improved fuel economy would reduce future federal deficits, resulting in a reduced debt burden in 2040
of $5.0 trillion ($3.2 trillion in $2011) when using the Baseline oil price trajectory. This lowers the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2040 by 10.3
percentage points. With the federal government reaching a debt ceiling of $16.7 trillion on May 19, 2013 and a forecast by the
Congressional Budget Office that the federal debt will reach $31.4 trillion (in $2011) in 2040 under current policy, it is clear that oil
prices and oil dependence are not the primary drivers of this debt.70 However, the fiscal impacts of oil
prices and dependence are significant, and would smartly be considered in policy decisions regarding
strategies to reduce the nation’s debt. For example, the estimated contribution of oil prices to the current debt is larger
than the combined projected deficits for the next two fiscal years, FY2014 and FY2015 ($0.9 trillion); and the reduction in projected
debts from 2014 to 2040 due to increased use of alternative fuel vehicles and improved fuel economy is similar in magnitude to
eliminating projected deficits for FY2014 to FY2019 (a total of $2.9 trillion).71
Oil prices shocks kill the economy – they increase business costs
Parry 03 – senior fellow at resources for the future (Joel, senior fellow at resources for the
future, The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency, Resources for the future, December 2003,
http://www.rff.org/documents/rff-dp-03-59.pdf, 6/24/14)
There are a number of ways that an oil-price increase could lead to a reduction in aggregate economic
activity. On the supply side, higher input prices could raise the cost to firms of producing output, which could
then induce them to cut back the level of production. On the demand side, the transfer of purchasing power
from domestic consumers to overseas suppliers reduces aggregate domestic demand for goods and
services.12 Many studies have documented an inverse empirical relation between oil prices and aggregate
economic activity.13 In an extensive survey of the early literature, Jones and Leiby (1996) find that a 1% increase in oil prices
reduces GNP by around 0.02 to 0.08%, with most estimates clustered around 0.05%. At the time, these estimates were roughly
equal to the share of oil expenditure in GNP; from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s this share was around 4−6%. However this share
has now fallen to below 2%, suggesting that the relation between oil prices and economic activity has weakened significantly.
Dependence kills the US economy – the trade deficit drains jobs and is
vulnerable to unstable suppliers
Lefton, 10 - Senior Policy Analysis at Center for American Progress [Rebecca, Daniel
Weiss, , Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress, January 13, 2010,
http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangeroushabit/ , Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
A recent report on the November 2009 U.S. trade deficit found that rising oil imports widened our deficit,
increasing the gap between our imports and exports. This is but one example that our economic recovery
and long-term growth is inexorably linked to our reliance on foreign oil. The United States is spending
approximately $1 billion a day overseas on oil instead of investing the funds at home, where our economy
sorely needs it. Burning oil that exacerbates global warming also poses serious threats to our national security and the world’s
security. For these reasons we need to kick the oil addiction by investing in clean-energy reform to reduce oil demand, while
In 2008 the United States imported oil from 10 countries currently on the
State Department’s Travel Warning List, which lists countries that have “long-term, protracted conditions
that make a country dangerous or unstable.” These nations include Algeria, Chad, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of
the Congo, Iraq, Mauritania, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Our reliance on oil from these countries could
have serious implications for our national security, economy, and environment.
taking steps to curb global warming.
Oil imports kill the economy – they increase the trade deficit and send
investments overseas
Weiss, 10 -- Daniel J. Weiss is a Senior Fellow and Director Climate Strategy at the
Center for American Progress. (Daniel, Senior Fellow and Director Climate Strategy at the Center
for American Progress, Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress, January 13,
2010, http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-adangerous-habit/, 6/24/14) HL
A recent report on the November 2009 U.S. trade deficit found that rising oil imports widened our deficit,
increasing the gap between our imports and exports. This is but one example that our economic recovery and long-term
growth is inexorably linked to our reliance on foreign oil. The United States is spending approximately $1 billion a
day overseas on oil instead of investing the funds at home, where our economy sorely needs it. Burning oil
that exacerbates global warming also poses serious threats to our national security and the world’s security. For these reasons we
need to kick the oil addiction by investing in clean-energy reform to reduce oil demand, while taking steps to
curb global warming. In 2008 the United States imported oil from 10 countries currently on the State Department’s Travel Warning
List, which lists countries that have “long-term, protracted conditions that make a country dangerous or unstable.” These nations
include Algeria, Chad, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Iraq, Mauritania, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and
Syria. Our reliance on oil from these countries could have serious implications for our national security, economy, and environment.
Ext – Energy Dependence Kills Hegemony
Dependence kills US hegemony – it finances and emboldens our opponents
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qU_zUN7
Cz0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw, 6/24/14) HL
We subscribe to the report’s analysis and recommendations, but the report understates the gravity of the threat that energy
dependence poses to U.S. national security. Energy is a central challenge to U.S. foreign policy , not simply one of many
challenges. Global
dependence on oil is rapidly eroding U.S. power and influence because oil is a strategic
commodity largely controlled by regressive governments and a cartel that raises prices and multiplies the
rents that flow to oil producers. These rents have enriched and emboldened Iran , enabled President Vladamir
Putin to undermine Russia’s democracy, entrenched regressive autocrats in Africa, forestalled action
against genocide in Sudan, and facilitated Venezuela’s campaign against free trade in the Americas. Most
gravely, oil consumers are in effect financing both sides of the war on terrorism.
Oil shocks hurt US hegemony – they constrain our foreign policy options
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qUzUN7C
z0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew-2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw,
6/24/14) HL
Fifth, a significant
interruption in oil supply will have adverse political and economic consequences in the
United States and in other importing countries. When such a disruption occurs, it upends all ongoing
policy activity in a frantic effort to return to normal conditions. Inevitably, those efforts include matters of foreign
policy, such as coordination with other countries to find measures that will mitigate the consequences of the supply disruption.
Some of the responses may be preplanned, such as the coordinated release of strategic reserves, but other
responses will be hurried, ineffectual, or even counterproductive.
Oil Dependence kills national security – it leaves us vulnerable to oil shocks
Sweeney, 2011 - Center for Naval Analyses [Kevin, Ralph Espach, Marcus King, William
Komiss, Hilary Zarin, Leo Goff, Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement, Center for Naval Analyses,
October 2011, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/mab4.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
America’s dependence on oil constitutes a significant national security threat . Our overreliance on oil is a
national vulnerability. If even a small percentage of the daily supply of oil is interrupted, our nation’s economic engine,
which is heavily reliant on transportation, could be significantly impacted. Despite our strategic oil reserve, the
consequences for a sustained oil disruption—oil shock—would impact every aspect of our lives, from food
distribution and what (or if) we eat, to manufacturing goods and services and associated jobs, to how we move from place to place in
the conduct of our everyday lives. We have seen the consequences of oil shock before. We know the consequences are
significant, we know they are immediate, and we know they are far reaching. We have seen how oil can be used as a
weapon to attack our national security. We know this; our policy makers know this; our enemies know this. In the United States, our
transportation systems rely almost exclusively on gasoline, diesel, and jet aviation fuel. These three products are refined from a
single basic ingredient: oil. How we get to work, how we ship materials, how we farm or produce our food, and how we transport raw
products to manufacturers or finished products to or from markets depends, in nearly all cases, on this single source of materials:
oil. Our dependence on oil reduces our foreign policy options —no small concern as Middle East uprisings continue and
dangerous regimes work to develop nu- clear weapons. It leads us down foreign
policy paths that ultimately put our
troops in harm’s way. Oil dependence drags our economy downward, thwarts investment, and imperils
our historic role as technology leaders—potentially depriving our troops of key military advantages. The cost of
oil and the volatility of the price of oil hurt our military investments and limit both our military capability and capacity. Finally, our
dependence on oil has far-reaching impacts on the environment.
Ext – Energy Wars
Dependence undermines global stability – it forces the US to fuel dangerous
governments
Lefton, 10 - Senior Policy Analysis at Center for American Progress [Rebecca, Daniel
Weiss, , Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress, January 13, 2010,
http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangeroushabit/ , Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
The United States imported 4 million barrels of oil a day —or 1.5 billion barrels total—from “dangerous or
unstable” countries in 2008 at a cost of about $150 billion. This estimate excludes Venezuela, which is not on the
State Department’s “dangerous or unstable” list but has maintained a distinctly anti-American foreign and
energy policy. Venezuela is one of the top five oil exporters to the United States, and we imported 435 million barrels of oil from
them in 2008. As a major contributor to the global demand for oil the United States is paying to finance and sustain
unfriendly regimes. Our demand drives up oil prices on the global market, which oftentimes benefits oilproducing nations that don’t sell to us. The Center for American Progress finds in “Securing America’s Future: Enhancing
Our National Security by Reducing oil Dependence and Environmental Damage,” that “because of this, anti-Western
nations such as Iran—with whom the United States by law cannot trade or buy oil—benefit regardless of
who the end buyer of the fuel is.” Further, the regimes and elites that economically benefit from rich energy
resources rarely share oil revenues with their people, which worsens economic disparity in the countries and
at times creates resource-driven tension and crises. The State Department cites oil-related violence in particular as a
danger in Nigeria, where more than 54 national oil workers or businesspeople have been kidnapped at oil-related facilities and other
infrastructure since January 2008. Attacks by insurgents on the U.S. military and civilians continue to be a danger in Iraq. Our oil
dependence will also be increasingly harder and more dangerous to satisfy. In 2008 the United States consumed 23
percent of the world’s petroleum, 57 percent of which was imported. Yet the United States holds less than
2 percent of the world’s oil reserves. Roughly 40 percent of our imports came from Canada, Mexico, and
Saudi Arabia, but we can’t continue relying on these allies . The majority of Canada’s oil lies in tar sands, a
very dirty fuel, and Mexico’s main oil fields are projected dry up within a decade. Without reducing our
dependence on oil we’ll be forced to increasingly look to more antagonistic and volatile countries that pose
direct threats to our national security.
Oil dependence causes international conflicts – peak oil causes resource
wars
Lapine 12 – Author for How stuff works science portion. (Cherise, Author for How stuff
works science portion, Will we ever cut our dependence on foreign oil?, How stuff works, 29 August 2012.
HowStuffWorks.com. <http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/cut-dependenceforeign-oil.htm> 24 June 2014.)
Can we cut the cord?¶ Walter Bibikow/Corbis¶ LEARN MORE:¶ How does oil recycling work?¶ What is microbial enhanced oil
recovery?¶ When will we run out of fossil fuels?¶ Doomsday scenarios — "What will we do when we run out of oil?" — are nothing
new. For decades, analysts and industry experts have been trying to predict when the oil supply will be critically low or depleted
altogether, and what the results might be. The United States is investing in energy technology with the hope that we can reduce the
country's dependence on petroleum-based fuels, and thus, the amount of oil we import. But is that even possible? Let's consider the
factors involved in this delicate, evolving equation.¶ The United States is the third largest oil producer in the world (behind Russia
and Saudi Arabia), with an output of about 8 to 9 million barrels a day. The U.S. was able to supply 90 percent of its own oil demand
until the 1970s; however, we currently use about 20 million barrels of oil a day . Because we use about twice as much as
we make, the additional oil has to come from somewhere else. We import
about 50 to 60 percent of our oil from other
countries, mostly Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Nigeria.¶ This arrangement presents several problems.
Oil is expensive, and there is a finite supply of crude oil so once all the oil on the planet has been found and processed, no more can
be produced. Because of these factors, oil remains a source of much of the world's political tension, especially
since a large amount of it is found in Africa and the Middle East, and supply can be threatened during
times of war. And as worldwide supply dwindles, many oil-producing countries may want to keep oil for
their own needs, which could lead to further hostile conditions or political unrest. So, reducing our oil
imports will improve our national security by making us less vulnerable to global conflict.¶
Dependence causes regional instability – it causes corruption and
undermines local security
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qU_zUN7
Cz0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw, 6/24/14) HL
Fourth, revenues from oil and
gas exports can undermine local governance. The United States has an
interest in promoting good governance both for its own sake and because it encourages investment that
can increase the level and security of supply. States that are politically unstable and poorly governed often struggle with
the task of responsibly managing the large revenues that come from their oil and gas exports. The elements of good governance
include democratic accountability, low corruption, and fiscal transparency. Production in fragile democra- cies, such as
in Nigeria, can be undermined when politicians or local warlords focus on ways to seize oil and gas rents
rather than on the longer-term task of governance. Totalitarian governments that have control over those revenue flows
can entrench their rule. When markets are tight, large oil consumers have tended to become especially focused
on securing supply and ignore the effects of their investments on corruption and mismanagement.
Oil imports increase global instability – it funds dangerous governments
Weiss, 10 -- Daniel J. Weiss is a Senior Fellow and Director Climate Strategy at the
Center for American Progress. (Daniel, Senior Fellow and Director Climate Strategy at the Center
for American Progress, Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress, January 13,
2010, http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-adangerous-habit/, 6/24/14) HL
The United States imported 4 million barrels of oil a day —or 1.5 billion barrels total—from “dangerous or
unstable” countries in 2008 at a cost of about $150 billion. This estimate excludes Venezuela, which is not on the
State Department’s “dangerous or unstable” list but has maintained a distinctly anti-American foreign and energy policy. Venezuela
is one of the top five oil exporters to the United States, and we imported 435 million barrels of oil from them in 2008. As a major
contributor to the global demand for oil the United States is paying to finance and sustain unfriendly
regimes. Our demand drives up oil prices on the global market, which oftentimes benefits oil-producing
nations that don’t sell to us. The Center for American Progress finds in “Securing America’s Future:
Enhancing Our National Security by Reducing oil Dependence and Environmental Damage,” that
“because of this, anti-Western nations such as Iran—with whom the United States by law cannot trade or
buy oil—benefit regardless of who the end buyer of the fuel is. ” Further, the regimes and elites that
economically benefit from rich energy resources rarely share oil revenues with their people, which
worsens economic disparity in the countries and at times creates resource-driven tension and crises. The
State Department cites oil-related violence in particular as a danger in Nigeria, where more than 54 national oil workers or
businesspeople have been kidnapped at oil-related facilities and other infrastructure since January 2008. Attacks by insurgents on
the U.S. military and civilians continue to be a danger in Iraq. In 2008 the United States consumed 23 percent of the
world’s petroleum, 57 percent of which was imported. Yet the United States holds less than 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves.
Roughly 40 percent of our imports came from Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, but we can’t continue
relying on these allies. The majority of Canada’s oil lies in tar sands, a very dirty fuel, and Mexico’s main oil
fields are projected dry up within a decade. Without reducing our dependence on oil we’ll be forced to
increasingly look to more antagonistic and volatile countries that pose direct threats to our national
security.
Ext – Methane Hydrates solve Dependence
Methane hydrates solve dependence – they provide massive amounts of
energy
Plumer 2013 - reporter at the Washington Post [Brad Plumer “Are methane hydrates the
next big energy source? Japan hopes so”. (Posted 2013-03-12 17:28:06): / Proquest.//accessed on
6/24/2014// LJ
How much energy are we talking about? Potentially, a staggering amount . The U.S. Geological Survey estimates
that gas hydrates could contain between 10,000 trillion cubic feet to more than 100,000 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas. Some of that gas will never be accessible at reasonable prices. But if even a fraction of that total can be
commercially extracted, that's an enormous amount. To put this in contrast, the U.S. shale reserves that
have everyone excited are estimated to contain 827 trillion cubic feet of natural gas .
Methane hydrates solve energy crisis – key to meeting demand
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
The global rise in demand for energy is expected to create an energy crisis in the future unless countries
develop alternative sources. Natural gas, a relatively clean- burning fuel that has many end-uses like electric power
generation, residential heating, petroleum refining, and chemical production,1 may play a critical role in helping
countries meet growing demand, reduce foreign energy dependence, and move toward clean energy
options. America and Japan have an interest in natural gas exploration because of its potential to become
an important part of their energy portfolios, and one possible source is methane hydrate. Methane hydrates are
3-Dimensional (3D) ice-lattice structures that have natural gas trapped inside of them.2 They are found both onshore and offshore
along almost every continental shelf in the world. When methane hydrates are melted or exposed to While methane hydrate remains
an untapped energy source, it has attracted international attention because of its potential benefits. Natural methane gas can
be used as a municipal gas and fuel for vehicles and fuel cells, and is a cleaner option than oil and coal .4
For direct fuel combustion, methane provides higher energy density per weight and emits a minimal byproduct of carbon dioxide
compared to coal and gasoline.5
Methane hydrates reduce oil dependence – gas is more efficient and a
domestic alternative
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qU_zUN7
Cz0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw, 6/24/14) HL
The need to reduce imports of oil in the United States and to better balance the world oil market leads
naturally to the following four policy objectives: • Increase efficiency of oil and gas use; • Switch from oilderived products to alternatives; • Encourage supply of oil from sources outside the Persian Gulf; • Make
the oil and gas infrastructure more efficient and secure; and • Increase investment in new energy
technologies.
Methane hydrates have enormous energy potential
Anderson 14 – BBC News Business Reporter (Richard BBC News, Published April 16, 2014
“Methane Hydrate: Dirty Fuel or Energy Saviour” http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610) RF
Some have discovered a potential saviour, locked away under deep ocean beds and vast swathes of permafrost. The problem is it's a
hydrocarbon, but unlike any other we know. Otherwise known as fire ice, methane hydrate presents as ice crystals with natural
methane gas locked inside. They are formed through a combination of low temperatures and high pressure, and are found primarily
on the edge of continental shelves where the seabed drops sharply away into the deep ocean floor, as the US Geological Survey map
shows. And the deposits of these compounds are enormous. "Estimates suggest that there is about the same amount of
carbon in methane hydrates as there is in every other organic carbon store on the planet ," says Chris Rochelle
of the British Geological Survey. In other words, there is more energy in methane hydrates than in all the world's
oil, coal and gas put together. By lowering the pressure or raising the temperature, the hydrate simply
breaks down into water and methane - a lot of methane. One cubic metre of the compound releases about
160 cubic metres of gas, making it a highly energy-intensive fuel. This, together with abundant reserves and the
relatively simple process of releasing the methane, means a number of governments are getting increasingly excited
about this massive potential source of energy.
Methane hydrate mining can provide enormous amounts of energy –
Japanese plants prove
LaMonica 2013 [Martin Lamonica Lamonica is an editor of the MIT technology review of Will
Methane Hydrates Fuel another gas boom? http://www.technologyreview.com/news/512506/willmethane-hydrates-fuel-another-gas-boom/
In a move to get closer to developing its own domestic fossil fuel, Japan is
extracting natural gas from an offshore deposit
of methane hydrates. The tests that are set to run until the end of this month mark the first time such production
methods have been tested in a deep-sea formation. Methane hydrates—frozen deposits of the main ingredient in natural
gas found in ocean sediments and near permafrost—are thought to be abundant. Worldwide, such deposits contain about 35 percent
more gas than other reserves. In Japan, offshore deposits could supply the country with 100 years of natural
gas, say researchers. Experts say the Japanese tests, coming a little over two years after the Fukushima nuclear disaster,
demonstrate the country’s commitment to mastering production of gas from the resource, one of its few domestic
sources of energy. The state-backed Japan, Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), which is running the test, says
there is enough natural gas in the eastern Nankai trough near Japan to displace 11 years of liquefied natural gas imports. “When you
meet scientists in Japan who are working on this, it strikes you that there is a sense of national urgency in developing a
domestic hydrocarbon fuel source,” says Carolyn Ruppel, the chief of the Gas Hydrates Project at the United States Geological
Survey. She calls the test “hugely significant as a milestone.”
Methane hydrates have enormous potential for energy production
Lutter, 2010 -- ecologist, zoologist, and contributor to the World Ocean Review
[Stephan Lutter, 2010, Climate Change Impacts on Methane Hydrates -- The World Ocean Review
Company] http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methanehydrates/
It is estimated that there could be more potential fossil fuel contained in the methane hydrates than in the
classic coal, oil and natural gas reserves. Depending on the mathematical model employed, present calculations of
their abundance range between 100 and 530,000 gigatons of carbon. Values between 1000 and 5000 gigatons are
most likely. That is around 100 to 500 times as much carbon as is released into the atmosphere annually by
the burning of coal, oil and gas. Their possible future excavation would presumably only produce
a portion of this as actual usable fuel, because many deposits are inaccessible, or the production would be
too expensive or require too much effort. Even so, India, Japan, Korea and other countries are presently engaged in the
development of mining techniques in order to be able to use methane hydrates as a source of energy in the future (Chapter 7).
Ext – Solves Economy
Domestic natural gas stimulates the economy – jobs and the trade deficit
prove
Furman 13 -- Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors (Jason, Gene Sperling,
Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, Reducing America’s Dependence on Foreign Oil As a
Strategy to Increase Economic Growth and Reduce Economic Vulnerability, August 29, 2013,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/08/29/reducing-america-s-dependence-foreign-oil-strategyincrease-economic-growth-and-redu, 6/24/14) HL
But among its greatest effects are economic. Every barrel of oil or cubic
foot of gas that we produce at home instead of
importing from abroad means: More jobs. Creates American jobs, adds to our national income, and reduces our trade
deficit. Nearly 35,000 jobs have been created over the past four years in oil and gas extraction alone , with
more jobs along the crude oil supply chain. North Dakota, for instance, has achieved the lowest unemployment rate in the nation (3.1
percent in June), while developing into a center of the resurgence of domestic oil production. Faster growth. Increasing
productivity through new techniques and technologies raises national income and increases growth. And
improving the terms-of-trade by reducing America’s dependence on foreign oil and increasing our net
exports shows up in higher standards of living and also higher growth rates. Most recently, revised net
export numbers—including a substantial contribution from petroleum products—played a large role in the
upward revision of GDP growth in Q2. A lower trade deficit. The oil and gas boom has also substantially
reduced the trade deficit. The real (inflation-adjusted) trade deficit in petroleum products fell to a record
monthly low in June. The chart below shows that through the first six months of 2013, the petroleum deficit is on pace to set a
new annual low this year, after adjusting for price changes. And through June 2013, the petroleum share of the real trade deficit in
goods has fallen from over 40 percent in 2009 to 25 percent since then, a pattern that will improve as foreign imports continue to
fall and domestic production continues to rise (see chart). Economic news like this is just one more reason for us to celebrate the
resurgence of domestic oil and gas production.
Reducing oil dependence helps the economy by reducing price volatility
Lapine 12 – Author for How stuff works science portion. (Cherise, Author for How stuff
works science portion, Will we ever cut our dependence on foreign oil?, How stuff works, 29 August 2012.
HowStuffWorks.com. <http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/cut-dependenceforeign-oil.htm> 24 June 2014.)
Reducing our dependence on foreign oil also helps the U.S. economy by removing some of the volatility of
global oil prices. When oil is trading at a steep price (or even when prices are simply expected to rise), the
price of gasoline immediately skyrockets. When it costs more to fill up a car, consumers spend less money
overall, and the economy suffers. However in this case, consumers aren't spending less money and saving more; they're
simply being forced to reallocate their funds.¶ The good news is technology in the energy industry is constantly improving. New oil
deposits are still being discovered, with some experts estimating there are about 1.7 trillion barrels of reasonably accessible oil in the
ground worldwide. And deposits of oil that were previously deemed inaccessible or economically unfeasible to drill, are now more
easily developed, even deposits in the U.S., which has seen production increase 10 percent since 2008. But the truth remains
that oil is a finite resource, and supply depends on a lot of factors that can't be controlled or predicted .¶
Increasing domestic production is helpful, but it isn't the whole solution. To cut our dependence on foreign oil, we have
to cut our dependence on oil. So even as oil production continues, other new technological developments, such as more
efficient vehicles, will continue to reduce the United States' reliance on petroleum-based fuels. Experts believe that we will achieve a
reduction in dependency, but the process will be gradual. The U.S. Department of Energy and the Energy Information
Administration predict that we are on track to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, as a result of a shift to other energy sources,
such as biofuels. By 2035, the U.S. is expected to reduce oil importation to about 45 percent
Reducing oil dependence helps the economy – trade deficits, inflation and
price shocks
Sweeney, 2011 - Center for Naval Analyses [Kevin, Ralph Espach, Marcus King, William
Komiss, Hilary Zarin, Leo Goff, Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement, Center for Naval Analyses,
October 2011, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/mab4.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
Economic Implications: More stability, less interruption A
meaningful reduction in U.S. reliance on imported
petroleum over the next decade would provide substantial economic benefits to the United States and U.S.
households, ranging from more money for consumers and more investment opportunity for business, to a
better macroeconomic posture for the nation. First, and perhaps most significantly, it would reduce the
national trade deficit. In 2010, the cost of petroleum imports accounted for 42 percent of the $645 billion goods trade deficit
[1]. These outflows, which increase with rising oil prices, are funds that could otherwise buy domestically produced fuels or other
goods, and support jobs and economic development at home [2]. Reducing oil imports would lessen the economic im-
pact of the projected rise of oil prices. Most industry and government experts predict oil prices will continue to rise for
decades [3]. They cite growing demand in rapidly developing countries such as China and India; slowed or decreased production in
traditional oil-producing regions; and a realization that oil must come increasingly from regions that are politically unstable,
environmentally challenging, or technically difficult to access (like ultradeep-sea drilling). These forces will inevitably increase the
spending of every American, not only on transportation fuel, but also on food, goods, and services that all rely on oil-fueled transport
as well. Reducing our use of imported oil would reduce the sizeable risks associated with oil flow
interruptions. A recent study by CNA found that some of the world’s industrialized countries would suffer severe economic
impacts, including reduced GDP, increased unemployment, and sharp recession if a major disruption lasting 90 days occurred in the
worldwide flow of oil [4]. Since the Second World War, the price of liquid fuels is associated with recessions [5]. In 1973, the sharp
increase in the price of oil involved obvious collusion among oil producing countries in an effort to disrupt Western economies. Their
purpose was to create a U.S. recession—and they succeeded [6]. (And, it should be noted, our reliance on foreign supplies for our oil
was substantially lower in 1973 than it is now.) The United States will lessen its vulnerability to these shocks by reducing oil imports.
Clean energy solves the economy – it increases employment and decreases
dependence
Lefton, 10 - Senior Policy Analysis at Center for American Progress [Rebecca, Daniel
Weiss, , Oil Dependence Is a Dangerous Habit, Center for American Progress, January 13, 2010,
http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangeroushabit/ , Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
The United States has an opportunity right now to reduce its dependence on foreign oil by adopting cleanenergy and global warming pollution reduction policies that would spur economic recovery and long-term
sustainable growth. With a struggling economy and record unemployment, we need that money invested
here to enhance our economic competitiveness. Instead of sending money abroad for oil, investing in cleanenergy technology innovation would boost growth and create jobs. Reducing oil imports through cleanenergy reform would reduce money sent overseas for oil, keep more money at home for investments, and
cut global warming pollution. A Center for American Progress analysis shows that the clean-energy provisions in
the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and ACES combined would generate approximately $150
billion per year in new clean-energy investments over the next decade. This government-induced spending
will come primarily from the private sector, and the investments would create jobs and help reduce oil
dependence. And by creating the conditions for a strong economic recovery, such as creating more finance for
energy retrofits and energy-saving projects and establishing loans for manufacturing low-carbon products, we can give the
United States the advantage in the clean-energy race. Investing in a clean-energy economy is the clear path
toward re-establishing our economic stability and strengthening our national security.
Ext – Solves Hegemony
Reducing energy dependence is key to increasing national security and the
economy
Sweeney, 2011 - Center for Naval Analyses [Kevin, Ralph Espach, Marcus King, William
Komiss, Hilary Zarin, Leo Goff, Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement, Center for Naval Analyses,
October 2011, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/mab4.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
Our overreliance on oil is made worse by our lack of control over global supplies, which is why, in this report, we focus on oil
generally and not on foreign oil specifically. Oil is a global commodity, and any amounts of oil produced in North America become
part of the global supply. When global prices spike upward, the domestic price also spikes—we don’t get “big-box store” discounts
just because of our nationality. We too often watch idly how these price swings have been, and continue to be, manipulated by
parties beyond U.S. control or influence. To be clear, we see the value of increased domestic oil production as one of several viable
options for reducing our overdependence on foreign oil. A near-term increase in domestic production has the
potential to decrease reliance on outside sources, to increase the margin between global demand and
global supply, and to increase our diplomatic leverage options. However, we also recognize that domestic oil alone will
not satisfy our nation’s transportation energy demand. We must have alternatives to oil for our transportation sector. We
can increase domestic production, and simultaneously reduce our overall demand for oil . The two need not
present a conflict. Together, these steps would significantly strengthen our economic and diplomatic hands .
Promoting alternative fuels boosts national security by reducing
dependence
Sweeney, 2011 - Center for Naval Analyses [Kevin, Ralph Espach, Marcus King, William
Komiss, Hilary Zarin, Leo Goff, Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement, Center for Naval Analyses,
October 2011, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/mab4.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
To assure our national security, government must take action to promote the use of a more diverse mix of
transportation fuels and to drive wider public acceptance of these alternatives. Overreliance on oil in the transportation
sector is the Achilles heel of our national security . As military professionals, we see this clearly; so do those who would do
us harm. Our overreliance on this single commodity makes us vulnerable . We are vulnerable not only to price
spikes, which can slow or halt our nation’s economic growth and devastate family budgets, but also to price volatility and
uncertainty that can negatively affect our investment decisions. We are held hostage to price fixing by a
cartel that includes actors who would do our nation harm, and we are too often called upon to risk the lives of our sons and
daughters to protect fragile oil supplies from this very cartel. One of the principal roles of the government is to provide national
security. It is in this light that we must push our government to develop a nationwide strategic plan that embraces diverse fuel
supplies. With the ability of OPEC to control price, market factors alone will not compel the nation to embrace diverse fuel options at
the pace that is needed. Not only will diversifying transportation fuel supplies enhance our national security, it will
help maintain America’s technological and industrial edge. Choosing a multi-vectored approach can make
our fuel sources—and our economy as a whole—much more flexible, adaptable, and resilient. Most importantly,
it will restore choice: choice for the consumer, choice for the businessman, choice for our foreign policy makers,
and choice for our nation.
Reducing dependence solves vulnerability – it prevents us from being
forced to act due to oil shocks
Sweeney, 2011 - Center for Naval Analyses [Kevin, Ralph Espach, Marcus King, William
Komiss, Hilary Zarin, Leo Goff, Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement, Center for Naval Analyses,
October 2011, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/mab4.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
Changes in U.S. consumption would also not alter the sourcing of the world’s oil. According to the U.S. National Intelligence Council,
by 2025, six countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Russia, and Iraq—will likely account for almost half of total world oil
production. The Persian Gulf region will still dominate global production, and we believe that turbulence there will continue to
impact global markets. Furthermore, we believe other countries with good prospects for increased oil production,
like Nigeria and Kazakhstan, pose high risks of political instability. This will make markets volatile, and
also increase the chances that oil will be used as an instrument for coercion, via market-rattling threats,
delivery shut-offs, and embargoes. Thus, for many ill- managed countries, oil will likely remain a curse as well as a blessing.
The chief advantage the United States would gain from reduced reliance on oil and greater fuel diversity
would be reduced vulnerability to supply shocks, and therefore, improved flexibility in choosing our international partners. OPEC’s production cut of 1973- 1974 shocked America into recognizing the dangers of concentrated supplies.
Since then, new oil fields have opened around the world, nations have created strategic reserves, and the global supply system has
become more resilient. Nevertheless, concerns over changes in oil supply and control have tethered us to the region, and largely
account for our complicated relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab autocracies. Greater fuel diversity, combined with the re-
duced use of oil, will increase our diplomatic options and will allow us to engage globally from a position
of greater strength.
Ext – Solves Energy Wars
Methane Hydrates can solve dependence – they can extend gas past peak oil
India Times 2013 [A news publication, CHINA DISCOVERS MAJOR METHANE HYDRATE
RESERVE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA http://www.thegwpf.org/china-discovers-major-methane-hydratereserve-south-china-sea/]
Totally unknown until the 1960s, methane
hydrates could theoretically store more gas than all the world's
conventional gas fields today. The amount that scientists figure should be gettable comes to about 43,000 trillion cubic feet,
or nearly double the 22,800 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable traditional natural gas resources around the world. (The
United States consumed 26 trillion cubic feet of gas last year.) That raises the possibility of an energy revolution that could dwarf
even the shale gale that has transformed America's fortunes in a few short years. It could also potentially have big implications for
countries, including the United States, Australia, Qatar, and even Russia, which are banking on unbridled growth in the global trade
of liquefied natural gas. The trick will be to figure out exactly how to profitably tap vast deposits of the stuff
buried inside the seafloor. "There's no doubt that the resource potential is enormous," said Michael
Stoppard, managing director, global gas, at energy consultancy IHS. "I think it's the ultimate rebuttal to
the peak oil and peak gas concept, but of course that's not much good unless you can develop it."
Methane hydrate can end energy conflicts by increasing supply, if it can be
safely recovered.
Karlenzig 2010 [ Warren Karlenzig is a former employee of the united nations,"Fire Ice" Impact on
Oil Spill, Containment and Energy Future http://www.ommoncurrent.com/notes/energy/2010/05/]
What makes methane hydrate and recent Gulf events so remarkable is that this substance, formed by high pressure and cold
temperatures and discovered only in the 1960s, has
more potential energy than all the world's coal, natural gas and
oil combined. energyfromice.jpg The US Department of Energy (DOE), China and India have all been pursuing
methane hydrate deposits and research because of its potential as the ultra high-powered energy source.
Russia (in conjunction with Japan) has been the first country to successfully harvest this game-changing energy source. Oil
companies and drilling operations, however, have been wary of its dangers before the Deepwater Horizon event, according to the
DOE's Oak Ridge National Laboratory: "(The oil and gas) Industry has concerns about drilling through hydrate zones, which can
destabilize supporting foundations for platforms and production wells. The disruption to the ocean floor also could result in surface
slumping or faulting, which could endanger work crews and the environment."The happy ending of our Sci-fi flick: The Gulf oil spill
is stopped by drilling a relief well; the millions of gallons that did "spill" are not as damaging as thought; and methane hydrate
is safely harnessed and sequestered of carbon worldwide, which phases out oil and natural gas as energy
sources. Oil wars largely cease as a result, as methane hydrates are bountiful enough for most coastal
nations to secure their own 100+ year energy supply.
Developing methane hydrate technology will solve energy needs – there is
enormous potential
Edmonton Journal ‘13 [Japan finds 'ice gas' beneath seabed; Nation seeks replacement for
shuttered nuclear energy, 3/15/13,
http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/lnacui2api/auth/checkbrowser.do;jsessionid=C39D263
D18C0EE8535AFD29A6C1F7649.MgHXAlEnyyAHeuzKo6U4A?ipcounter=1&cookieState=0&rand=0.90
51108519034639&bhjs=1&bhqs=1, accessed 6/25/14] KC
Carbon frozen with water - called methane hydrates or burnable ice - is found under most seabeds. But the catch is there's no
technology yet to commercially extract that gas. "Methane hydrates are everywhere, including in some of the
fastest-growing economies," said Will Pearson, director for global energy & natural resources at Eurasia Group in London. " If
the technology is developed, it'll alter the gas market. What is already the golden age of gas will last much
longer." Canadian researchers have studied deposits in the Arctic and off the West Coast for the past decade, and Japan was
working closely with Canadians on their latest project. The U.S., China and India have their own explorations underway. Last
year, ConocoPhillips and the U.S. Department of Energy reported they had successfully tested a method for
extracting natural gas from ice formations in Alaska. The U.S. Geological Survey has said methane
hydrates offer an "immense carbon reservoir", twice the size of all other known fossil fuels on earth .
AT: Shale Oil Solves Dependence
Methane hydrates are key to reducing US energy dependence – shale oil
cannot solve alone, because it is a minor resource
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
In the United States, natural gas accounts for almost a quarter of its energy supply and is expected to
remain constant over the next few decades. Yet energy demand during this period is expected to continue
increasing. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that the nation would have to increase its annual natural gas
production by about 10 percent over the next 25 years in order to keep up with the rising consumption level.20 Fortunately, the
United States has an abundance of domestic natural gas supplies. In fact, natural gas production is at an all-time high due to the socalled shale gas revolution.21 In their latest assessment, the Potential Gas Committee estimated that the country has a total natural
gas resource base of approximately 2,074 million cubic feet (Tcf).22 This amount included 1,836 Tcf of potential natural gas
resources (including probable, possible, and speculative resources) and 238 Tcf of proved reserves.23 Nevertheless, more natural
gas supplies would be needed as demand continues to grow. If technologies can be developed for the
purpose of making methane hydrate a viable source for natural gas, the United States could decrease its
reliance on foreign energy sources. The abundance of natural gas that the US is experiencing from the
shale-gas revolution will not last forever. Shale gas deposits, as a proportion of natural gas supplies in the
world, may be minor in comparison to methane hydrates.24 Although methane hydrate production may be
more expensive than conventional ways of extracting natural gas, the estimated cost of methane hydrate
extraction is similar to unconventional sources like shale gas .25
Shale gas has no long term effect on global energy – lower prices will
balance out production
Alamri ’14 – head of State Oil Marketing Organization in Iraq - [Falah – interviewed by
Pavel Koshkin editor of Russia Direct “Does the U.S. shale gas revolution threaten Russia and OPEC?”
May 22, 2014, Accessed June 27, 2014. http://www.russia-direct.org/content/does-us-shale-gasrevolution-threaten-russia-and-opec] RF
RD: What about other challenges for global
energy security? For example, a lot of experts are currently talking about the
shale gas evolution in the U.S. Some say that it might undermine energy security in Russia and the Gulf
countries not only economically, but also politically. F.A.: There are a lot of challenges regarding shale oil and
gas. Probably, shale (“tight”) oil is considered to be a phenomenon. And the leader of this phenomenon is America. Although the
U.S. is now producing a lot of shale gas and oil, there are a lot of challenges such as water supply, public concerns,
regulation, and property issues. Over the medium-term, the shale gas revolution has a certain effect, but
this effect will be narrow. But over the long-term, it will have no effect. Actually, it depends on technology
and oil prices. If they are going to produce more shale oil and shale gas, that may reduce the price. If they
reduce the price of gas and oil, it will not make sense economically to continue production . So, there is always
a [subtle] balance between the production of oil and gas and the price. As indicated from the name of this energy source –
“unconventional” - that means that is not easy to extract oil, it is very sophisticated and complicated and
needs high technology. It also needs a lot of water, because this oil is trapped in rock formations and needs hydraulic
drilling. If you go to an oil field in Iraq, you will find oil 500-1000 meters in depth, but if you go for unconventional oil, you have to
go in 3000 meters in depth, as in the case of horizontal drilling. That’s a big difference.
Shale oil does not affect the price of energy because we are already shifting
to natural gas
Alamri ’14 – head of State Oil Marketing Organization in Iraq - [Falah – interviewed by
Pavel Koshkin editor of Russia Direct “Does the U.S. shale gas revolution threaten Russia and OPEC?”
May 22, 2014, Accessed June 27, 2014. http://www.russia-direct.org/content/does-us-shale-gasrevolution-threaten-russia-and-opec] RF
RD: Nevertheless, these arguments don’t address the competitive capacity of shale oil and gas. After all, during a short
period of time, between 2007 and 2012, the U.S. achieved a lot. For five years they increased the production of shale gas by about
30-50 percent. And if they invest in hydraulic drilling a lot, economically it should make sense, right? F.A.: We are going to the era
of natural gas from here. We have already started it actually. So, for environmental and economic reasons (because
gas is cheaper than oil), global energy policy is being directed to shift its focus to [natural] gas. But using gas
and power generation is a big goal for every country, because it is cheaper and easier to abstract . Gas policy will not be
disturbed by the larger quantity that will be produced [thanks to the shale revolution in the U.S.]. Though, globally, it might affect
the percentage of oil [production] in favor of gas [production].
AT: Turn - Middle East Withdrawal
Reducing dependence won’t cause a Middle Eastern Withdrawal – we have
other interests there, and other nations pay for our presence
Nye ’14 - Professor and former Dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Business.
[Joseph “Shale Gas Is America's Geopolitical Trump Card” Wall Street Journal June 8, 2014, Accessed
June 27, 2014. http://online.wsj.com/articles/joseph-nye-shale-gas-is-americas-geopolitical-trump-card1402266357] RF
Skeptics have argued that lowered dependence on energy imports will cause the U.S. to
disengage from the Middle East. This misreads the economics of energy. A major disruption such as a war
or terrorist attack that stopped the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz would drive prices to very high levels in America
and among our allies in Europe and Japan. Moreover,
the U.S. has many interests other than oil in the
region, including nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, protection of Israel, human rights and
counterterrorism. As for the costs of maintaining our Fifth Fleet in the region, many bases are
paid for by host countries, and the marginal costs of keeping naval resources there instead of
elsewhere do not add greatly to the budget. The U.S. may be cautious about overextension in the Middle East, but
that is more the product of experience with the costly invasion of Iraq and the general turmoil of the Arab revolutions rather than
illusions that shale produces political "energy independence." The ability of the U.S. to use oil sanctions to bring Iran to the
bargaining table on nuclear issues depended not only on Saudi willingness to make up the million barrels of oil per day that Iran
lost, but also on the general expectations that were created by the shale revolution.
Reducing dependence will not cause a withdrawal from the Middle East –
we would have more flexibility
Sweeney, 2011 - Center for Naval Analyses [Kevin, Ralph Espach, Marcus King, William
Komiss, Hilary Zarin, Leo Goff, Ensuring America’s Freedom of Movement, Center for Naval Analyses,
October 2011, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/mab4.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
It is our view that there are several other strategically important reasons for maintaining a significant
military presence in the Middle East beyond protecting oil routes—we do not necessarily believe that
reduced oil consumption would automatically lead to the return of troops stationed in the region. However,
it is clear that by reducing U.S. demand for oil, and thereby reducing U.S. economic vulnerability to supply and price shocks,
the United States would increase its options in military presence, operations, and costs in that region. If
we make the U.S. less sensitive to interruptions of overseas oil supplies, we reduce the potential urgency
of our military response to closures of critical ocean chokepoints . For example, industry and government projections
indicate that over the next fifteen years several nations—including China and India—will be increasingly reliant on oil imports,
including imports from the Persian Gulf region. If we begin to act now to make the U.S. economy less sensitive to turbulent oil prices
(while other countries grow more sensitive), our leverage will increase when asking other countries to supplement, or cooperate
with, U.S. forces in assuring the flow of oil through the region. The U.S. will, in our view, be relieved of some of the
military and economic burden of protecting those sea lanes, and be able to focus resources elsewhere. This
would also support a broader notion of shared global security , with regional challenges addressed with strong
collaboration among allies.
The US will not leave the Middle East even if we reduce dependence – we
would still have interests there
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qU_zUN7
Cz0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw, 6/24/14) HL
Sixth, some observers see a direct
relationship between the depen- dence of the United States on oil, especially
the size of the U.S. defense budget. Such a relationship invites the inference that if
it were not dependent on this oil, the United States and its allies would have no interest in the region, and
hence it would be possible to achieve significant reductions in the U.S. military posture. In the extreme, this
argument says that if the nation reduced its depen- dence, then the defense budget could be reduced as
well. U.S. strategic interests in reliable oil supplies from the Persian Gulf are not proportional with the percent of oil consumption
that is imported by the United States from the region. Until very low levels of dependence are reached, the United
States and all other consumers of oil will depend on the Persian Gulf. Such low levels will certainly not be reached
during the twenty-year time frame of this study. Even if the Persian Gulf did not have the bulk of the world’s readily
available oil reserves, there would be reasons to maintain a substantial military capability in the region .
from the Persian Gulf, and
The activities of Iran today and Iraq, especially prior to 1991, underline the seriousness of threats from weap- ons of mass
destruction. Combating terrorism also requires a presence in the Gulf. In addition to military activities, a U.S. presence in the region
can help to improve political stability. At least for the next two decades, the Persian Gulf will be vital to U.S.
interests in reliable oil supply, nonproliferation, combating terrorism, and encouraging political stability,
democracy, and public welfare. Accordingly, the United States should expect and support a strong military posture that
permits suitably rapid deployment to the region, if required.
AT: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve cannot solve oil shocks – it is not currently
filled.
Parry 03 – senior fellow at resources for the future (Joel, senior fellow at resources for the
future, The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency, Resources for the future, December 2003,
http://www.rff.org/documents/rff-dp-03-59.pdf, 6/24/14)
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) provides one means to calm and stabilize oil markets through
timely, presidentially directed releases of emergency crude oil stocks.14 The volume of oil in the SPR in mid-year
2003 amounts to around 600 million barrels, or around 52 day’s worth of imports. Although the level of oil in the SPR has
not changed much in recent years, its effective import “coverage” has fallen as the level of imports has
grown over time. Coverage is now less than half of the 115 days achieved in the peak year 1985 (Figure 7).
Currently, the United States has the capacity to store up to 700 million barrels, although the House-passed energy bill of early 2003
(H.R. 6) proposes raising that limit to one billion barrels.
AT: No risk of Disruption
Oil production is vulnerable to disruption – there are many unstable links
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qU_zUN7
Cz0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw, 6/24/14) HL
The depletion of conventional sources, especially those close to the major markets in the United States, Western Europe, and Asia,
means that the production and transport of oil will become even more dependent on an infrastructure that is
already vulnerable. In particular, oil supply is expected to continue to concentrate in the Persian Gulf ,
which holds the world’s largest geologically attractive reserves (table 1), and is a region that has been unstable and
includes countries that have periodically used their oil exports for political purposes unfriendly to the
United States. A large fraction of the world’s traded oil already passes through a handful of strategic choke
points, such as the Strait of Hormuz. The infrastructure for delivering oil has several potential weak links,
including major oil processing facilities that are vital yet vulnerable to attack and difficult to repair . In
February 2006, terrorists linked to al-Qaeda attempted, but failed, to destroy the Abqaiq processing facility in Saudi Arabia, where
6.8 million barrels per day of oil (some two-thirds of total Saudi production) are processed before export.10 There have been
numerous efforts to strengthen these facilities, both through physical hardening and through improved surveillance and
coordination by security services. As the world market for oil relies on increasingly distant sources of supply,
often in insecure places, the need to protect the production and transportation infrastructure will grow.
AT: We are switching to Natural Gas
Natural gas supplies are becoming more vulnerable as the US begins to
import gas
Schlesinger 2006 -- Chair of the Defense Policy Board (James, He is also a consultant to
the U.S. Department of Defense, the nation’s first Secretary of Energy, October, 2006, council on foreign
relations,
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A
%2F%2Fwww.cfr.org%2Fcontent%2Fpublications%2Fattachments%2FEnergyTFR.pdf&ei=h96qU_zUN7
Cz0QWkooCwCw&usg=AFQjCNEPZOz_ew2eHRY0SY6oJG8Na4GFA&sig2=lKsG7qf8YKlCQ3e7etGwBw, 6/24/14) HL
The organization of the markets and the role for imports of natural gas are different from that of oil. Until
the late 1990s, the North American market for natural gas was essentially independent from other major gas
markets. Production of domestic natural gas has not increased sufficiently to meet rising demand and, over the last two decades,
the gap has been met mainly by rising imports from Canada. Mexico has not been successful in increasing its production of gas, and
Mexico has become a net importer of gas from the United States. Today, about 2 percent of the total gas supply in
North America comes from outside the continent in the form of liquefied natural gas. Most projections envision
that LNG will account for a larger share of North American gas supply in the future as demand for gas continues to rise and natural
gas production in the United States, Canada, and Mexico is not expected to keep pace (figure 5). There is well-founded
concern about the availability of adequate supplies of natural gas to the North American market over the
next several years. Additional gas from less accessible areas of Canada, as well as the long-planned gas pipeline from Alaska to
the lower forty-eight states, the Alaskan Natural Gas Transportation System, could augment supply. Most analysts anticipate
that LNG will fill the remaining gap. Initially, LNG imports will be a small portion of total North American
gas supply but could ultimately prove troublesome in the future if the fraction of LNG in total gas supply rises, creating a
dependency on imported gas.
Methane hydrate is a key substitute—natural gas running short
Street 8—attorney advisor at the Office of the General Counsel (Thomas, “Marine
Methane Hydrates as Possible Energy Source”, Natural Resources &Environment, Summer 2008,
Proquest, 25 June 2014) DZ
Due to substantially increasing global demand from China, India, and the countries of Europe, and with
reserves estimated only to last until mid-century at present rates of consumption, there is growing concern that
natural gas reserves may eventually run short, prompting some to assess possible substitutes. It has been
noted that the coastal zone and oceans possess a potentially staggering amount of unconventional natural
gas resources in the form of methane hydrates (located in near-freezing, deep water), a global
hydrocarbon resource estimated to contain twice the equivalent energy potential of all fossil fuels on the
Earth. Methane hydrates, a clathrate compound, is frozen water ice with large amounts of methane contained within. Several
countries, including the United States, Japan, and China, have begun research to explore the future potential of this resource as a
substitute for conventional natural gas as an energy source. Although still in early stages of research and development, it must be
noted that the eventual possible use of this resource has serious attendant environmental considerations due to its interrelationship
with the global terrestrial/marine carbon cycle and past possible involvement in rapid global climate change after sudden release,
known more popularly as the "Clathrate Gun Hypothesis."
Methane Bursts Adv
Ext – Methane Bursts Now
Warming will cause methane hydrate bursts due to the changing Gulf
Stream
Hornbach, 2012 – Professor of Earth Sciences, Southern Methodist University
[Matthew, Phrampus, Huffington Department of Earth Sciences, Southern Methodist University, Dallas,
Texas 75275, DOE funded Gas Hydrate Dynamics on the Alaskan Beaufort Continental Slope: Modeling
and Field Characterization, Recent changes to the Gulf Stream causing widespread gas hydrate
destabilization, Nature, 25 October, 2012, Ebsco June 27, 2014] KF
The Gulf Stream is an ocean current that modulates climate in the Northern Hemisphere by transporting warm
waters from the Gulf of Mexico into the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans1,2. A changing Gulf Stream has
the potential to thaw and convert hundreds of gigatonnes of frozen methane hydrate trapped below the
sea floor into methane gas, increasing the risk of slope failure and methane release3–9. How the Gulf Stream
changes with time and what effect these changes have on methane hydrate stability is unclear. Here, using seismic data
combined with thermal models, we show that recent changes in intermediate-depth ocean temperature
associated with the Gulf Stream are rapidly destabilizing methane hydrate along a broad swathe of the North
American margin. The area of active hydrate destabilization covers at least 10,000 square kilometres of the
United States eastern margin, and occurs in a region prone to kilometre-scale slope failures. Previous hypo- thetical
studies3,5 postulated that an increase of five degrees Celsius in intermediate-depth ocean temperatures could release enough
methane to explain extreme global warming events like the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and trigger wide- spread
ocean acidification7. Our analysis suggests that changes in Gulf Stream flow or temperature within the past 5,000
years or so are warming the western North Atlantic margin by up to eight degrees Celsius and are now
triggering the destabilization of 2.5 gigatonnes of methane hydrate (about 0.2 per cent of that required to cause the
PETM). This destabilization extends along hundreds of kilometres of the margin and may continue for
centuries. It is unlikely that the western North Atlantic margin is the only area experiencing changing
ocean currents10–12; our estimate of 2.5 giga- tonnes of destabilizing methane hydrate may therefore represent only a fraction
of the methane hydrate currently destabilizing globally. The transport from ocean to atmosphere of any methane released—and thus
its impact on climate—remains uncertain. Methane hydrate, a solid consisting of methane and water, is stable at high pressures and
low temperatures. Owing to a positive thermal gradient in the Earth, methane hydrate exists only within the first few hundred
metres of sediments in deep marine settings, below which methane gas and liquid water are stable13. Methane hydrates represent
one of the largest reservoirs of organic carbon on Earth6,13,14. Studies speculate that destabilization of methane
hydrates could inject significant quantities of methane into the ocean and possibly the atmosphere,
leading to spikes in atmospheric carbon levels4,6,8. The base of hydrate stability can sometimes be detected directly in
seismic data via bottom-simulating reflectors (BSRs) that appear as strong, negative-polarity, high-impedance seismic reflections
caused by free gas at the base of the phase boundary15,16 (Fig. 1b). Hydrate formation is strongly dependent on
temperature, and because of this, the base of the hydrate stability zone, as indicated by BSRs, is used for estimating
subsurface temperature17. Warming waters in the Gulf Stream can potentially destabilize methane hydrate3 .
Additionally, slight changes in the Gulf Stream flow direction can also destabilize methane hydrate by
introducing warm waters to regions previously exposed only to cold bottom-water currents.
Recent Gulf Stream shifts have destabilized Arctic methane hydrates
Hornbach, 2012 – Professor of Earth Sciences, Southern Methodist University
[Matthew, Phrampus, Huffington Department of Earth Sciences, Southern Methodist University, Dallas,
Texas 75275, DOE funded Gas Hydrate Dynamics on the Alaskan Beaufort Continental Slope: Modeling
and Field Characterization, Recent changes to the Gulf Stream causing widespread gas hydrate
destabilization, Nature, 25 October, 2012, Ebsco June 27, 2014] KF
Recent shifts in Gulf Stream flow or temperature provide a simple yet powerful mechanism for contemporary
methane hydrate dissociation and carbon release. The analysis presented here provides a method for constraining
Holocene changes in intermediate-depth ocean temperatures and also demonstrates that slight deviations in ocean currents
have a profound impact on margin stability and the ocean carbon budget. It is unlikely that the western North
Atlantic margin is the only area experiencing widespread hydrate destabilization due to changing ocean currents. Recent studies
have suggested that similar ocean temperature shifts may occur both in the Arctic Ocean 7,27,28 and globally
along subtropical western boundary currents12. Our estimate of 2.5 Gt of destabilizing methane hydrate may
therefore represent only a fraction of the methane hydrate currently destabilizing globally.
Methane releases from Hydrates could accelerate warming
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres ’14 [is a union of 15 science, technical,
biologic, and medical research centers within Germany. Collectively, the association employs more than
27,200 professionals. “Methane hydrates and global warming” Jan 02, 2014 Science Daily
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140102142008.htm ]
Does this mean that global warming has no impact on potential methane release from the seafloor off Svalbard? Certainly not,
because over long periods of time the deep ocean will also warm up and in particular the polar regions are affected. Here,
enormous amounts of methane hydrate are stored in the ocean floor. "As a powerful greenhouse gas
methane represents a particular risk for our climate. A release of large amounts of the gas would further
accelerate global warming," says Prof. Berndt. "Therefore, it is necessary to continue long-term monitoring, particularly
in such critical regions as off Svalbard", the Geophysicist concludes.
Arctic methane hydrates increasingly unstable- melting sea ice proves
Ahmed ’13 - executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development
[Dr Nafeez, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-toknow-arctic-methane-time-bomb, Seven facts you need to know about the Arctic methane timebomb,
8/5/13, accessed 6/27/14, The Guardian, KC]
The instability of Arctic methane hydrates in relation to sea ice retreat - not predicted by conventional models - has
been increasingly recognised by experts. In 2007, a study in Eos, Transactions found that: "Large volumes of
methane in gas hydrate form can be stored within or below the subsea permafrost, and the stability of this
gas hydrate zone is sustained by the existence of permafrost. Degradation of subsea permafrost and the
consequent destabilization of gas hydrates could significantly if not dramatically increase the flux of methane,
a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere." In 2009, a research team of 19 scientists wrote a paper in
Geophysical Research Letters documenting how the past thirty years of a warming Arctic current due to
contemporary climate change was triggering unprecedented emissions of methane from gas hydrate in
submarine sediments beneath the seabed in the West Spitsbergen continental margin. Prior to the new warming, these
methane hydrates had beenstable at water depths as shallow as 360m. Over 250 plumes of methane gas
bubbles were found rising from the seabed due to the 1C temperature increase in the current : "... causing the
liberation of methane from decomposing hydrate... If this process becomes widespread along Arctic continental
margins, tens of Teragrams of methane per year could be released into the ocean."
Seafloor hydrates are releasing methane now due to warming
Fyke and Weaver, 2006 - climate modeler and scientist at School of Earth and
Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria [Jeremy, , Andrew, Lead Author in the IPCC The Effect
of Potential Future Climate Change on the Marine Methane Hydrate Stability Zone, Journal of Climate,
July 12, 2005, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
The marine gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is sensitive to temperature changes at the seafloor, which
likely affected the GHSZ in the past and may do so in the future in response to anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions. A series of climate sensitivity and potential future climate change experiments are under- taken using the
University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) with resulting seafloor temperature changes applied to a simple
time-dependent methane hydrate stability model. The global GHSZ responds significantly to elevated atmospheric
CO2 over time scales of 103 yr with initial decreases of the GHSZ occurring after 200 yr in shallow highlatitude seafloor areas that underlie regions of sea ice loss. The magnitude and rate of GHSZ change is dependent primarily
upon the thermal diffusivity of the seafloor and the magnitude and duration of the seafloor temperature increase. Using a simple
approxima- tion of the amount of carbon stored as hydrate in the GHSZ, estimates of carbon mobilized due to hydrate dissociation
are made for several potential climate change scenarios.
Global warming will destabilize methane hydrates and release methane into
the air – models prove
Fyke and Weaver, 2006 - climate modeler and scientist at School of Earth and
Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria [Jeremy, , Andrew, Lead Author in the IPCC The Effect
of Potential Future Climate Change on the Marine Methane Hydrate Stability Zone, Journal of Climate,
July 12, 2005, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
Important regions are those in which the BHSZ shoals to the seafloor, rendering the entire sediment
column unstable with respect to methane hydrate. In these regions, methane that is mobilized during
hydrate dissociation is not able to re-form higher up in the sediment column and is therefore most likely
to enter the exogenic carbon cycle. Cells within the model that ex- perience total GHSZ loss are therefore binned during
each GHSZ model run, and the spatial and temporal distributions of these cells are examined to give an in- dication of areas and
times that are potentially most prone to large-scale methane flux into the ocean or atmosphere. Using � � 5 � 10�7 m2 s�1,
Equil2000 experiences some regions with total GHSZ loss, particularly in lo- cations within the Okhotsk Sea
and off the coast of Britain (Fig. 12a). These cells, totaling approximately 1% of the total continental margin area, occur in re
gions of shallow bathymetry that exhibit shallow pre- warming BHSZs (maximum 88 mbsf). The first cells to experience total GHSZ
loss appear after 400 yr of model integration (year 2250), and subsequent cells be- come completely unstable for the next 900 yr
(until year 3150). Equil2050 exhibits a greater area under which complete GHSZ loss occurs with binned cells
appearing over 4% of the total margin area (Fig. 12b), including coherent regions around Great Britain, New
Zealand, and in the Japan Sea. GHSZs are totally destabilized from depths of up to 190 mbsf over a period beginning 400 yr
into the model integration and lasting for 2300 yr. Equil2100 displays the greatest amount of total GHSZ loss, with 9% of the
continental margin (Fig. 12c) completely destabilizing from depths of up to 239 mbsl (due to maximum seafloor temperature
increases of up to 8°C). Regions of coherent total GHSZ loss that existed in Equil2050 increase in size and numerous additional
regions appear along continental margins. The period over which cells experience total GHSZ loss in Equil2100 begins 400 yr into
the model integration and lasts for 2900 yr.
Current warming is enough to release seafloor methane – we must act now
to prevent runaway methane
Fyke and Weaver, 2006 - climate modeler and scientist at School of Earth and
Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria [Jeremy, , Andrew, Lead Author in the IPCC The Effect
of Potential Future Climate Change on the Marine Methane Hydrate Stability Zone, Journal of Climate,
July 12, 2005, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
The analysis presented here demonstrates the sensi- tivity of a simple marine methane hydrate stability model to seafloor
temperature increases, as simulated by an intermediate-complexity climate model. Even with atmospheric CO2
concentrations capped at below- present-day levels and allowed to decrease (Pulse2000), the global GHSZ
experiences a noticeable decrease in volume with several regions within the model domain destabilizing
completely. Any further increase in CO2 results in greater loss of GHSZ via increased seafloor warming. Of
course, projections of future CO2 concen- trations in the atmosphere are prone to uncertainty; the range of CO2 profiles used
in the present study brackets the range of maximum CO2 concentrations used in the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change SRES high-CO2 stabilization experiments (Houghton et al. 2001). After carbon emitted to
the atmosphere equili- brates with the ocean [on a time scale of 103 years; Archer and Buffett (2005); Archer (2005)], carbon is
removed from the exogenic system through carbonate and silicate weathering, a process that takes from 103 to 105 yr. Therefore,
ignoring the chance that anthropo- genic atmospheric carbon is rapidly drawn down in the short term (e.g., Pulse2100f),
concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are expected to remain elevated for millennia, resulting in sustained
ocean temperature increases similar to those modeled here. The times during which cells within the model do- main
experience rapid decreases in GHSZ volume (and total GHSZ loss) are indicative of periods when the response rate of the GHSZ to
potential anthropogenic forcing is highest. Decreases in the global GHSZ vol- ume begin to occur after 200 yr (i.e., year 2050) for all
model integrations and cells begin to experience total GHSZ loss after approximately 450 yr, even when using atmospheric CO2 held
steady at below-present-day lev- els. Furthermore, it is apparent that although the global GHSZ does not reach a new equilibrium for
20–40 kyr, the bulk of the response is concentrated in the first 5 kyr and involves GHSZs situated on shallow
continental margins that are most prone to total dissociation. Pulsed-CO2 experiments provide a useful demonstration of the interplay between the time scale of the sea- floor temperature pulse and seafloor thermal diffusiv- ity. For relatively quick
thermal perturbations (�102 yr) at the seafloor, or low thermal diffusivity (� � 5 � 10�7 m2 s�1), the thermal skin depth D [Eq.
(2)] is shal- lower than the global average BHSZ, and the global GHSZ does not experience an initial decrease in re- sponse to the
seafloor temperature pulse. However, if the temperature perturbation persists for �103 yr or more, as would be
expected from a sustained atmospheric CO2 increase, a greater percent of the GHSZ will disappear before
rebounding in response to post- pulse seafloor temperatures. The response time scales for given thermal
diffusivities presented here represent a minimum, as the latent heat of dissociation is not taken into account by the GHSZ
model.
Arctic methane hydrates are more susceptible to bursting because the
Arctic has more temperature changes
Fyke and Weaver, 2006 - climate modeler and scientist at School of Earth and
Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria [Jeremy, , Andrew, Lead Author in the IPCC The Effect
of Potential Future Climate Change on the Marine Methane Hydrate Stability Zone, Journal of Climate,
July 12, 2005, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
Areas that are most sensitive to GHSZ destabilization within the model domain are shallow, high-latitude grid
cells that correspond to regions of significant sea ice loss, lowered albedo, and increased absorption of incoming
radiation at the sea surface. The combination of initially shallow BHSZ depths and rapid, large sea- floor temperature increases in
these regions makes them the first to experience rapid GHSZ shoaling. This is most noticeable in the Bering and Okhotsk
Seas, which display the highest increases in seafloor temperature. We suggest that the Okhotsk Sea in particular
is very sensitive to warming and hydrate dissociation as it contains several grid cells that experience rapid
and total GHSZ loss, even with CO2 held at and lowered below year 2000 levels. Large-scale changes to global ocean
circulation play an important role in regulating seafloor temperature changes along deeper continental
margins where the seafloor is potentially in contact with global-scale, density-driven water masses. Most
noticeably, a shift in the location of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) for- mation results in large regional temperature changes at
the seafloor in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegion Seas as a result of a northeastward migration of the modeled deepwater
convection site during periods of elevated CO2. The seafloor under the vertical component of the new, shallow convection cell
experiences dramatic tem- perature increases and GHSZ loss for all model inte- grations, while the former region of vertical
convection cools significantly. Seafloor temperature change also occurs due to variations in the rate of production of Antarctic
Bottom Water (AABW). Equil2050 and Equil2100 in particular experience a sudden increase in AABW production immediately
following a rapid drawback of sea ice in the Weddell Sea approximately 900 yr into the climate model integration; this cold, dense
water mass invades under the shallowed NADW circulation cell and penetrates north into the Atlantic and west into the Indian
Ocean. Any GHSZ there would therefore increase significantly, but due to the specified proximity of the GHSZ to continental margins in these experiments this deep water-mass transi- tion has little effect on the modeled global hydrate in- ventory. This abyssal
cooling effect is also briefly ap- parent in pulsed-CO2 experiments, but disappears as AABW production gradually decreases in
response to decreasing CO2 levels.
Methane bursts are already beginning – Major shelf cracks in Norway prove
Mienert, 2010 - professor of arctic marine geology Scripps Institution of
Oceanography [Jurgen, Vanneste, , Norwegian margin outer shelf cracking: a consequenceof climateinduced gas hydrate dissociation?, International Journal of Earth Sciences, April 3, 2010, Ebsco June 24,
2014] KAF
Outer shelf cracks and elongated depression features were first discovered along a 40-km-long section of the U.S.
Atlantic margin (Driscoll et al. 2000; Hill et al. 2004). The individual cracks are several km long, 1 km wide and up to 50 m
deep. The cracks and depressions seem to be caused by ‘‘gas blow-outs’’ related to the release of shallow
gas. The precise age of the blowouts and the origin of the gas remain unknown; however, they are most likely post-Last Glacial
Maximum (LGM). This could indicate that ocean warming triggered methane hydrate dissociation processes.
Methane hydrates are an ice-like solid formed by the inclusion of methane in water molecules. They are stable under pressure and
temperature conditions found on the mid-Norwegian margin and most of the world’s continental margins (e.g. Henriet and Mienert
1998) at depths greater than several hundred metres and low temperatures (e.g. Mienert et al. 2005; Bu ̈nz et al. 2009). More
recently, echo sounder surveys provided evidence for gas venting on the outer shelf of the northern
Norwegian (Chand et al. 2008) and the W-Svalbard margin (Knies et al. 2004) where hundreds of methane plumes
were discovered (Westbrook et al. 2009). The gas flares occur in water depth at \400 m that is close to the
required depths for methane hydrate stability on the continental shelf. The plumes occur in regions that today fall
outside of the temperature–pres- sure conditions for the stability field of methane hydrates. However, episodic plume activity is
observed within deeper waters (1200 m) and above a gas hydrate reservoir in an active methane venting province offshore
NW-Svalbard (Hustoft et al. 2009a). The fact that the gas hydrate outcrop zones of the largest gas hydrate provinces in Europe are
on the Norwegian-Barents-Svalbard (NBS) margins makes the U.S. Atlantic margin–Norwegian Atlantic margins response of gas
hydrate fields to post-glacial climate conditions particularly important for studies of submarine slope failures, gas blowouts or
geohazards in general (e.g. Driscoll et al. 2000; Locat and Mienert 2003; Canals et al. 2004; Mienert et al. 2005; Solheim et al.
2005; Mienert 2009).
Seismic activity makes methane release inevitable – cracks are already
forming
Mienert, 2010 - professor of arctic marine geology Scripps Institution of
Oceanography [Jurgen, Vanneste, , Norwegian margin outer shelf cracking: a consequenceof climateinduced gas hydrate dissociation?, International Journal of Earth Sciences, April 3, 2010, Ebsco June 24,
2014] KAF
The upper slope of the mid-Norwegian margin between 400 and 550 m water depths is characterised by a remarkable nearly
continuous slope-parallel seabed crack system extending over 60 km in a 5-km-wide belt. The depth of the individual cracks ranges
from a few metres up to 10 m, with increasing amplitude to the south, where these seabed cracks merge with the northern rim of the
Storegga Slide headwall. The seabed cracks may be ‘‘ten- sion crevices’’ associated with movements on the headwall of the Storegga
slide, but gas escape or gas blanking found nearby the cracks suggest pore pressure–related processes. Although direct evidence of
gas hydrates in the study area is limited to the continental slope, the location of these cracks on the upper slope and outer shelf fits
well the theoretical or modelled outcrop of the present-day limit of hydrate stability zone. Hence, deteriorating hydrate
stability conditions in the shallow water areas since the LGM forced by increasing bottom water
temperatures and/or retreat of ice sheet may have triggered the formation of these seabed cracks. Porepressure build-up and hydraulic fracturing may therefore be subsequently linked to climate- controlled
gas hydrate dissociation.
Ext – Bursts Impacts - Extinction
Warming causes methane hydrate bursts and extinction – historical
records prove
The Boston Globe 2000 [Gareth Cook, The Big Belch: Methane Massacre, 10/29/2000, accessed 6/26/14, KC
Under the long shadow of the freshly carved Rocky Mountains, delicate creatures that looked like a cross between a squirrel and a
monkey noisily foraged for food in the dense canopy of broad-leafed banana trees. Off the coast of Florida, dozens of species of tiny
animals called foraminifera swarmed through the deep blue seas. Then, in a geological instant, came chaos. With a speed that's long
baffled climatologists, the world's temperatures suddenly soared 55 million years ago , opening northern land routes
between the continents. Whole families of archaic animals, including the squawking squirrel-monkeys (plesiadapiformes),
were doomed as an army of new animals -- including the dawn horse and ancestors of pigs and primates -- invaded over the new
land bridges. In the water, meanwhile, vast regions lost their oxygen, killing off half the species of foraminifera
in a massacre so devastating that some researchers refer to the result of the mass die-off as a "Strangelove
ocean" -- a nod to the classic film about nuclear annihilation. But the assassin, many scientists now think, was not
the kind of fiery asteroid that felled the dinosaurs: it was a great belch of methane gas from deep in the ocean. In the
atmosphere,methane can trap the sun's heat with 21 times the power of carbon dioxide. If even a small
part of frozen deep-sea methane were to escape, computer models show, it could easily change the
narrative of life. And the trigger behind this ancient extinction, one leading theory holds, is a phenomenon with modern
relevance: global warming. Then, as now, the Earth's temperatures were slowly rising. Scientists think the warming might have
melted some of the methane, which would have caused more warming -- setting off a chain reaction of
disastrous methane releases. "The fossil record shows that it's possible to have a catastrophic change that
was triggered by slow warming," said Paul Olsen, a Columbia University geologist. "The links to the modern
world are obvious."
Ext – Bursts Impacts - Warming
Methane bursts trigger runaway warming and global extinction – historical
studies prove
Johansen, 2003 – Professor of Environmental Issues at U Nebraska [Bruce, Prof. of
Environmental Issues and Native American Studies at University of Nebraska, Global Warming as a
"Weapon of Mass Destruction" , Ratville News, 25 October 2003,
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/GWasWMD.html, Acc. Jun 28 2014] HL
Beware the "Methane Burp." In his book, When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time (London: Thames
and Hudson, 2003), Michael J. Benton describes a mass extinction at the end of the Permian period, about 250 million years
ago, when at least 90 per cent of life on Earth died. The extinction probably was initiated by massive volcanic eruptions in
Siberia. According to present theories, the eruptions injected massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere, causing a number of biotic feedbacks that accelerated global warming of about 6 degrees C. In
a chapter titled "What Caused the Biggest Catastrophe of all Time?" Benton sketches how the warming (which was accompanied by
anoxia) may have fed upon itself: The end-Permian runaway greenhouse may have been simple. Release of carbon dioxide from the
eruption of the Siberian Traps [volcanoes] led to a rise in global temperatures of 6 degrees C. or so. Cool polar regions became warm
and frozen tundra became unfrozen. The melting might have penetrated to the frozen gas hydrate reservoirs located
around the polar oceans, and massive volumes of methane may have burst to the surface of the oceans in
huge bubbles. This further input of carbon into the atmosphere caused more warming, which could have melted
further gas hydrate reservoirs. So the process went on, running faster and faster. The natural systems that
normally reduce carbon dioxide levels could not operate, and eventually the system spiraled out of control , with the
biggest crash in the history of life. The oxygen-starved aftermath of this immense global belch of methane left
land animals gasping for breath and caused the Earth’s largest mass extinction, suggests new research. Greg
Retallack, an expert in ancient soils at the University of Oregon in Eugene, has speculated that the same methane "belch" was
of such a magnitude that it caused mass extinction via oxygen starvation of land animals. Bob Berner of Yale
University has calculated that a cascade of effects on wetlands and coral reefs may have reduced oxygen levels in
the atmosphere from 35 per cent to just 12 per cent over 20,000 years. Marine life also may have suffocated in the
oxygen-poor water. Events 250 million years ago are of more than academic interest today because the 6 degrees C. that
Benton estimates triggered these events is roughly the same temperature rise forecast for the Earth by the
I.P.C.C. by the end of this century.
Methane burst runaway warming is irreversible – an extinction level event
Atcheson 2004 (John, geologist, has held a variety of policy positions in several federal government
agencies Methane burps: ticking time bomb, Baltimore Sun, Dec 15, 2004,
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2004-12-15/methane-burps-ticking-time-bomb, 6/28/14)
HL
Geologist Michael J. Benton lays out the scientific evidence for this epochal tragedy in a recent book,
When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time. As with the PETM, greenhouse gases, mostly
carbon dioxide from increased volcanic activity, warmed the earth and seas enough to release massive amounts of methane from
these sensitive clathrates, setting off a runaway greenhouse effect. In both cases, a temperature increase of about 10.8
degrees Fahrenheit, about the upper range for the average global increase today's models predict can be
expected from burning fossil fuels by 2100. But these models could be the tail wagging the dog since they don't add in the
effect of burps from warming gas hydrates. Worse, as the Arctic Council found, the highest temperature increases from human
greenhouse gas emissions will occur in the arctic regions - an area rich in these unstable clathrates. If we trigger this runaway
release of methane, there's no turning back. No do-overs. Once it starts, it's likely to play out all the way.
Humans appear to be capable of emitting carbon dioxide in quantities comparable to the volcanic activity
that started these chain reactions. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, burning fossil fuels releases more than
150 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes - the equivalent of nearly 17,000 additional volcanoes
the size of Hawaii's Kilauea.
Methane hydrate bursts would cause runaway warming and de-oxygenate
the ocean – historical studies prove
Kennedy, 2008 - Department of Earth Science at the University of California
[Martin, David Mrofka & Chris von der Borch, Professor at the Department of Earth Science at the
University of California, Snowball Earth termination by destabilization of equatorial permafrost methane
clathrate, Nature: International weekly journal of science, 29 May 2008,
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7195/full/nature06961.html#a1, Acc. Jun. 28 2014] LS
A pool of this size could have provided a massive biogeochemical feedback capable of triggering deglaciation
and accounting for the global postglacial marine carbon and sulphur isotopic excursions, abrupt unidirectional
warming, cap carbonate deposition, and a marine oxygen crisis. Our findings suggest that methane
released from low-latitude permafrost clathrates therefore acted as a trigger and/or strong positive feedback for
deglaciation and warming. Methane hydrate destabilization is increasingly suspected as an important positive
feedback to climate change11, 12, 13 that coincides with critical boundaries in the geological record14, 15 and represents a
particularly important mechanism active during conditions of strong climate forcing.
Methane permafrost melting would trigger rapid runaway warming
Kennedy, 2008 - Department of Earth Science at the University of California
[Martin, David Mrofka & Chris von der Borch, Professor at the Department of Earth Science at the
University of California, Snowball Earth termination by destabilization of equatorial permafrost methane
clathrate, Nature: International weekly journal of science, 29 May 2008,
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7195/full/nature06961.html#a1, Acc. Jun. 28 2014] LS
The distinctive features of Marinoan deglaciation that define the base of the Ediacaran period4 can be attributed to the
effects of permafrost methane clathrate destabilization. In contrast to the balanced feedbacks and progressive glacial–
interglacial cycles of Cenozoic deglaciation, the violent opening of the highly volatile shelf-permafrost methane
clathrate pool could act as a trigger to catastrophic climate and biogeochemical reorganization of the Earth
system, abruptly bringing the long-lived and icy Cryogenian period to a close and setting the stage for the
appearance of metazoans and dominance of a new Earth system. This event both identifies the range of function
of the climate system, and demonstrates a mechanism activated by strong climate forcing not unlike projected
future effects of atmospheric CO2.
Letting Methane burst causes catastrophic rapid warming – empirically
proven
Chung-Chieng, 2005 - Climate Studies Team Leader [A. Lai, Dietrich, Bowman, Climate
Studies Team Leader, Technical Staff Member, Earth & Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos
National Lab., Los Alamos, NM, Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate, Topics in
Catalysis, March 1, 2005, Ebsco June 26, 2014]KF
Recently a new hypothesis (the so-called ‘‘Clathrate gun hypothesis’’) [5] proposes that dissociation
of marine sedimentary
methane hydrates likely induced episodes of rapid climate warming at various times in the geologic past,
through greenhouse forcing by atmospheric CH4. Atmospheric CH4 concentrations have increased from
800 parts-per-billion-by-volume (ppbv) in the year 1800 to 1750 ppbv in year 2000 [2]. Even though
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have both shown the same monotonically increasing pattern, the atmospheric
concentration of CH4 is only 0.3–0.4% of that of CO2. Further, the annual mean globally aver- aged surface air temperature did not
monotonically increase over this period as expected. For example, the time series of 5-year running-means of global average surface
air temperature shows that following the steady rise between 1905 and 1940, there was a period of (almost) constant air temperature
between 1940 and 1975. After 1975, the temperature rose again [1]. (see figure 15 of the reference.)
Methane hydrate bursts cause climate change – Ice core data proves
Chung-Chieng, 2005 - Climate Studies Team Leader [A. Lai, Dietrich, Bowman, Climate
Studies Team Leader, Technical Staff Member, Earth & Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos
National Lab., Los Alamos, NM, Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate, Topics in
Catalysis, March 1, 2005, Ebsco June 26, 2014]KF
The hypothesis: The dissociation of oceanic methane hydrate due to internal fluctuations in ocean currents by shifts in
major warm current systems (such as the Gulf Stream migrating towards the continental slope of the northeastern United
States/Canada) will outgas micro- scopic methane bubbles into the water column. Methane oxidation
bacteria and other microbes will convert the bulk of CH4 into CO2 and generate heat. Both the CO2 and any
residual CH4 will escape into the atmosphere while the heat warms the interior ocean (predominantly at
intermediate depths). The warmed oceans will then evaporate more water vapor into the atmosphere,
augmenting the enhanced greenhouse effect due to increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4,
etc. Both the warmed oceans and the atmosphere will keep the atmospheric CO2 concentration high (due to
lower solubility of CO2 in warmer ocean water) [20], as revealed in ice core records. Short-term (e.g. since the industrial
revolution) fluctuations of atmospheric CO2 concentration can be due to many reasons (including
anthropogenic factors). But, in the long term (e.g. quaternary), the temperature, CO2 and CH4 concentrations appear to be well synchronized.
Methane releases from Hydrates could accelerate warming
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres ’14 [is a union of 15 science, technical,
biologic, and medical research centers within Germany. Collectively, the association employs more than
27,200 professionals. “Methane hydrates and global warming” Jan 02, 2014 Science Daily
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140102142008.htm ]
Does this mean that global warming has no impact on potential methane release from the seafloor off Svalbard? Certainly not,
because over long periods of time the deep ocean will also warm up and in particular the polar regions are affected. Here,
enormous amounts of methane hydrate are stored in the ocean floor. "As a powerful greenhouse gas
methane represents a particular risk for our climate. A release of large amounts of the gas would further
accelerate global warming," says Prof. Berndt. "Therefore, it is necessary to continue long-term monitoring, particularly
in such critical regions as off Svalbard", the Geophysicist concludes.
Ext – Mining Solves Bursts
Development prevents methane bursts – leaving them in the ground doesn’t
solve
Licking; 1998 (Ellen, Business Week, “The Worlds Next Power Surge?”, December 14) pg. lexis
Environmentalists worry that a new, cheap source of natural gas could fan consumption,
exacerbating global warming. But leaving it in the ground doesn't solve the problem. Some
climatologists believe extreme weather conditions affecting temperature or pressure spontaneously release huge
quantities of methane from hydrates into the atmosphere. Methane is an even more potent
greenhouse gas than the carbon dioxide released from burning fuel. Long before this controversy is
resolved, Americans will probably begin drilling for hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico, where oil companies already have huge
operations. Chevron's Johnson is confident that engineers will prevail. ''Ten years ago, deep ocean drilling was difficult, and now it's
commonplace,'' he says. ''There's a good chance that we'll see gas hydrates being used in the U.S. within the next 15 years.'' Assuming
that oil prices eventually rise, Johnson's prediction will become more than a pipe dream.
Plan is key to reduce emissions - Methane will naturally leak and cause
warming
Belahmidi 13 -- energy analyst covering North America and Northern Europe
(Claudia, Claudia Belahmidi joined IHS Energy in July 2010 as an energy analyst covering North America
and Northern Europe., Japan’s methane hydrates natural gas extraction – a game changer?, May 23,
2013, http://unconventionalenergy.blogs.ihs.com/2013/05/23/japans-methane-hydrates-natural-gasextraction/, 6/25/14) HL
- The global LNG market is expected to become more competitive in the second half of the decade as new export projects in
Australia, North America and Africa will add significant volumes to the market. In a glutted global LNG market, methane
hydrates are unlikely to become a priority for gas producers. That would mean though that methane
hydrates would remain in the ice or slowly be released as Arctic permafrost melts due to climate change,
adding to the problem without taking advantage of methane hydrate’s commercial potential.
AT: Methane Risks Exaggerated
Catastrophic Arctic methane release is real- Arctic specialists confirm
Ahmed ’13 - executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development
[Dr Nafeez, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-toknow-arctic-methane-time-bomb, Seven facts you need to know about the Arctic methane timebomb,
8/5/13, accessed 6/27/14, The Guardian, KC]
A widely cited 2011 Nature review dismissed such a catastrophic scenario as implausible because methane
"gas hydrates occur at low saturations and in sediments at such great depths below the seafloor or onshore permafrost that
they will barely be affected by [contemporary levels of] warming over even [1,000] yr." But this study and others like it
completely ignore the new empirical evidence on permafrost-associated shallow water methane hydrates
on the Arctic shelf. Scientific reviews that have accounted for the empirically-observed dynamics of
permafrost-associated methane come to the opposite conclusion. In 2007, scientists Matthew Reagan and George Moridis at
the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters exploring the vulnerability of
methane gas hydrates. They concluded based on simulations of different types of oceanic gas hydrate responding to seafloor
temperature changes: "... while many deep hydrate deposits are indeed stable under the influence of rapid seafloor temperature
variations,shallow deposits, such as those found in arctic regions or in the Gulf of Mexico, can undergo rapid dissociation and
produce significant carbon fluxes over a period of decades." A 2010 scientific analysis led by the UK's Met Office in Review of
Geophysics found: "The time scales for destabilization of marine hydrates are not well understood and are
likely to be very long for hydrates found in deep sediments but much shorter for hydrates below shallow
waters, such as in the Arctic Ocean... Overall, uncertainties are large, and it is difficult to be conclusive about the time scales
and magnitudes of methane feedbacks, but significant increases in methane emissions are likely, and catastrophic
emissions cannot be ruled out... The risk of a rapid increase in [methane] emissions is real but remains largely
unquantified." Another extensive scientific review of data from the ESAS gathered between 1995 and 2011 by over twenty Arctic
specialists published in the Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences similarly concluded that: "The [ESAS] is a powerful
supplier of methane to the atmosphere owing to the continued degradation of the submarine permafrost, which causes the
destruction of gas hydrates. The emission of methane in several areas of the [ESAS] is massive to the extent that
growth in the methane concentrations in the atmosphere to values capable of causing a considerable and
even catastrophic warning on the Earth is possible." Other recent scientific reviews corroborate these
findings.
Prefer our evidence – consensus of Arctic experts see methane bursts as
plausible – Neg authors are not experts
Ahmed ’13 - executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development
[Dr Nafeez, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-toknow-arctic-methane-time-bomb, Seven facts you need to know about the Arctic methane timebomb,
8/5/13, accessed 6/27/14, The Guardian, KC]
Debate over the plausibility of a catastrophic release of methane in coming decades due to thawing Arctic
permafrost has escalated after a new Nature paper warned that exactly this scenario could trigger costs equivalent to the
annual GDP of the global economy. Scientists of different persuasions remain fundamentally divided over whether such a scenario is
even plausible. Carolyn Rupple of the US Geological Survey (USGS) Gas Hydrates Project told NBC News the scenario is "nearly
impossible." Ed Dlugokencky, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) said there has
been "no detectable change in Arctic methane emissions over the past two decades." NASA's Gavin Schmidt said that ice core records
from previously warm Arctic periods show no indication of such a scenario having ever occurred. Methane hydrate expert Prof David
Archer reiterated that "the mechanisms for release operate on time scales of centuries and longer." These arguments were finally
distilled in a lengthy, seemingly compelling essay posted on Skeptical Science last Thursday, concluding with utter finality: "There is
no evidence that methane will run out of control and initiate any sudden, catastrophic effects." But none of the scientists
rejecting the plausibility of the scenario are experts in the Arctic, specifically the East Siberia Arctic Shelf
(ESAS). In contrast, an emerging consensus among ESAS specialists based on continuing fieldwork is
highlighting a real danger of unprecedented quantities of methane venting due to thawing permafrost. So who's
right? What are these Arctic specialists saying? Are their claims of a potentially catastrophic methane release plausible at all? I took
a dive into the scientific literature to find out. What I discovered was that Skeptical Science's unusually skewered
analysis was extremely selective, and focused almost exclusively on the narrow arguments of scientists out
of touch with cutting edge developments in the Arctic . Here's what you need to know. The authors of the
controversial new Nature paper on costs of Arctic warming didn't just pull their decadal methane catastrophe
scenario out of thin air. The scenario was first postulated in 2008 by Dr Natalie Shakhova of the University of
Alaska Fairbanks, Dr Igor Semiletov from the Pacific Oceanological Institute at the Russian Academy of
Sciences, and two other Russian experts. Their paper noted that while seabed permafrost underlaying most of the ESAS
was previously believed to act as an "impermeable lid preventing methane escape," new data showing "extreme methane
supersaturation of surface water, implying high sea-to-air fluxes" challenged this assumption. Data showed: "Extremely high
concentrations of methane (up to 8 ppm) in the atmospheric layer above the sea surface along with anomalously high concentrations
of dissolved methane in the water column (up to 560 nM, or 12000% of super saturation)." One source of these emissions "may be
highly potential and extremely mobile shallow methane hydrates, whose stability zone is seabed permafrost-related and could be
disturbed upon permafrost development, degradation, and thawing." Even if the methane hydrates are deep, fissures, taliks and
other soft spots create heat pathways from the seabed which warms quickly due to shallow depths. Variousmechanisms for such
processes have been elaborated in detail. The paper then posits the plausibility of a 50 Gigatonne (Gt) methane release occurring
abruptly "at any time." Noting that the total quantity of carbon in the ESAS is "not less than 1,400 Gt", the authors wrote: "Since the
area of geological disjunctives (fault zones, tectonically and seismically active areas) within the Siberian Arctic shelf composes not
less than 1-2% of the total area and area of open taliks (area of melt through permafrost), acting as a pathway for methane escape
within the Siberian Arctic shelf reaches up to 5-10% of the total area, we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of
hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time. That may cause ∼12-times increase of modern atmospheric
methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming." So the 50 Gt scenario used by the new Nature paper does not
postulate the total release of the ESAS methane hydrate reservoir, but only a tiny fraction of it. The scale of this scenario is roughly
corroborated elsewhere. A 2010 scientific analysis led by the UK's Met Office in Review of Geophysics recognised the
plausibility of catastrophic carbon releases from Arctic permafrost thawing of between 50-100 Gt this century,
with a 40 Gt carbon release from the Siberian Yedoma region possible over four decades. Shakhova and her
team have developed these findings from data derived from over 20 field expeditions from 1999 to 2011. In 2010, Shakhova et. al
published a paper in Science based on their annual research trips which highlighted that the ESAS was a key reservoir of methane
"more than three times as large as the nearby Siberian wetland... considered the primary Northern Hemisphere source of
atmospheric methane." Current average methane concentrations in the Arctic are: "about 1.85 parts per million, the highest in
400,000 years" and "on par with previous estimates of methane venting from the entire World Ocean."
Arctic Methane hydrates are leaking faster than expected
Fitzpatrick, 2010 – Science reporter for the BBC [Michael, methane release looks stronger,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8437703.stm]
Scientists have uncovered what appears to be a further dramatic increase in the leakage of methane gas that is
seeping from the Arctic seabed. Methane is about 20 times more potent than CO2 in trapping solar heat. The findings come
from measurements of carbon fluxes around the north of Russia, led by Igor Semiletov from the University of Alaska at Fairbanks.
"Methane release from the East Siberian Shelf is underway and it looks stronger than it was supposed [to be]," he
said. Professor Semiletov has been studying methane seepage in the region for the last few decades, and leads the International
Siberian Shelf Study (ISSS), which has launched multiple expeditions to the Arctic Ocean. The preliminary findings of ISSS 2009 are
now being prepared for publication, he told BBC News. Methane seepage recorded last summer was already the
highest ever measured in the Arctic Ocean. High seepage Acting as a giant frozen depository of carbon such as CO2 and
methane (often stored as compacted solid gas hydrates), Siberia's shallow shelf areas are increasingly subjected to
warming and are now giving up greater amounts of methane to the sea and to the atmosphere than
recorded in the past. METHANE HYDRATES Methane gas is trapped inside a crystal structure of water-ice The gas is released
when the ice melts, normally at 0C At higher pressure, ice under the ocean, hydrates are stable at higher temperatures This undersea
permafrost was until recently considered to be stable. But now scientists think the release of such a powerful
greenhouse gas may accelerate global warming. Higher concentrations of atmospheric methane are contributing to
global temperature rise; this in turn is projected to cause further permafrost melting and the release of yet more methane in a
feedback loop. A worst-case scenario is one where the feedback passes a tipping point and billions of tonnes
of methane are released suddenly, as has occurred at least once in the Earth's past. Such sudden releases
have been linked to rapid increases in global temperatures and could have been a factor in the mass
extinction of species. According to a report by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), the springtime
air temperature across the region in the period 2000-2007 was an average of 4C higher than during 1970-1999. That is the fastest
temperature rise on the planet, claims the university.
AT: No Proof of Methane Bursts
The risk of Methane Bursts is empirically proven, in spite of scientific
uncertainty
Kristof, 2006 – columnist for New York Times [Nicholas April 18, 2006 The Big Burp Theory
of the Apocalypse - New York Times
http://select.nytimes.com/mem/tnt.html?tntget=2006/04/18...nion/18kristof.html&tntemail0=y&emc=
tnt&pagewanted=print (2 of 3)4/18/2006 6:13:35 AMThe Big Burp Theory of the Apocalypse - New York
Times
Nobody is sure what caused the Permian extinction, but one theory is that it was methane burps . And as long
as I'm fear-mongering, there was also a better understood warming 55 million years ago, known as the Paleocene-Eocene
Thermal Maximum, or PETM. That was a period when temperatures shot up by 10 degrees Fahrenheit in
the tropics and by about 15 degrees in polar areas, and many scientists think it was caused by the melting
of methane hydrates. "The PETM event 55 million years ago is probably the most likely example of their impact, though there
are smaller events dotted through the record," says Gavin Schmidt, a NASA expert on climate change. He emphasizes
the uncertainties, but adds that since we are likely to enter a climate that hasn't been To be sure, some
experts are skeptical. Daniel Schrag, a geochemist at Harvard, doubts that methane hydrates were the culprit 55 million years
ago. For starters, he says, the theory doesn't offer a good explanation of the initial change that melted the methane hydrates. For all
the uncertainty, there is an important point here: The history of climate shows that it does not evolve slowly and gracefully, it
lurches. There are tipping points, and if we trigger certain chain reactions, then our leaders cannot claim a mulligan. They could set
back our planet for, say, 10 million years. The White House has used scientific uncertainty as an excuse for its
paralysis. But our leaders are supposed to devise policies to protect us even from threats that are difficult
to assess precisely — and climate change should be considered even more menacing than a nuclear-armed Iran. Moreover,
uncertainty cuts both ways. The best guess of climate experts is that the seas will rise by two feet by 2100, but if the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet were to melt, then that alone would raise the seas by 20 feet. Frankly, it's the well-known risks of rising
temperatures and sea levels — more than worry about a cataclysmic methane burp — that should drive us to curb carbon emissions.
But our political system doesn't seem able to grapple with scientific issues like climate . Our only hope for firm
action would be a major U.S.-led global initiative to curb carbon, and the Bush administration has already dropped the ball on that.
The best reason for action on global warming remains the basic imperative to safeguard our planet in the
face of uncertainty, and our leaders are failing wretchedly in that responsibility. If we need an apocalypse to concentrate our
minds, then just imagine our descendants sitting on the top of Mount Ararat beside their ark, cursing us for triggering a methane
burp.
Current Arctic methane levels rising- research charts disprove skeptics
Ahmed ’13 - executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development
[Dr Nafeez, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/aug/05/7-facts-need-toknow-arctic-methane-time-bomb, Seven facts you need to know about the Arctic methane timebomb,
8/5/13, accessed 6/27/14, The Guardian, KC]
A 2011 Nature paper found that ten times more carbon than thought is escaping via thawing coastal permafrost at the ESAS.
Although it is not yet clear whether or how the quantities of Arctic methane are impacting on total atmospheric methane emissions,
a number of scientists argue that the increasing spikes in methane detected in the Arctic in recent years is
indeed unprecedented. Despite NOAA scientist Dr Dlugokencky's reassurances that current Arctic methane
emission levels are nothing to be "alarmed" about, his own data shows that Arctic methane levels were
1850 ppb in yr 2000, rising up to 1890 ppb in 2012. Indeed, Dr Leonid Yurganov, Senior Research Scientist at the
NASA/UMBC Joint Centre for Earth Systems Technology, and his co-scientists from NOAA and Harvard (Shawn Xiong and Steven
Wofsy) disagree with Dlugokencky. In a paper for the American Geophysical Union last December they charted a worrying
"global increase of methane" since 2007-8, with particular spikes in 2009 and 2011-12 in the northern
hemisphere, with maximum methane concentrations in the Arctic: "IASI data for the autumn months (October-November)
clearly indicate Eurasian shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean as a significant methane emitter. The maximal methane concentrations were
found over Kara and Laptev Seas. According to IASI data, during the last three years in autumn time, methane over Eurasian shelf
has been increased by 25 ppb, over the N. American shelf, by 23 ppb, and over the land between 50 N and 70 N for both Eastern and
Western hemispheres, by 20 ppb." Yurganov et. al point out that between January 2009 and 2013, Arctic methane
levels ramped steadily higher by about 10-20 ppb on average each year. They also note that maximum Arctic
methane emissions occur annually between September and October - coinciding with the Arctic sea ice minimum.
Seafloor methane hydrates are beginning to leak – Russian research proves
Clarke Jr., 2010 – Former Aide to president Carter [Thomas, Environmental lawyer and
Former aide to president carter, Arctic seafloor is leaking methane
http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsroom/environmental/b/environmental-lawblog/archive/2011/04/11/natural-gas-development-poses-a-risk-of-enhancing-ghg-emissions-due-toquot-leakage-quot-note-new-studies.aspx A.S.
As noted in prior posts, the evidence for climate change can be found in the many changes occurring across the globe. One of the
most disturbing such events is the recent evidence that the Arctic seafloor is emitting methane into the
atmosphere. As noted in several prior posts, methane is a significant GHG because its warming effects are many times
that of CO2. Very large amounts of carbon are known to be trapped in the former Siberian wetland. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf
- a 2.1-million-square-kilometer patch of Arctic seafloor that was exposed during the most recent ice age, when sea levels were lower
- is three times larger than all of today's land-based Siberian wetlands. When the region was above sea level, tundra vegetation
pulled carbon dioxide from the air as plants grew. That organic material, much of which did not fully decompose in the frigid Arctic,
accumulated in the soil and is the source of the methane found in this region. It was believed that this methane was trapped beneath
a layer of permafrost, but such is not the case with the portion that is beneath the sea. However, recent field studies suggest that
this reservoir of carbon has begun to leak. During six cruises in the region from 2003 to 2008, the researchers
gathered data at more than 1,000 spots in the Greenland-sized stretch of shallow ocean. The researchers also took
atmospheric readings of methane concentration during one helicopter survey and a wintertime excursion from shore onto the icecovered sea. The researcher s found unexpectedly high amounts of methane dissolved in seafloor waters across 80% of
the area they studied. In some spots, methane concentrations
during those six years averaged more than 80times normal. Because the water over the shelf is relatively shallow - average depth in the region is about 45 meters - much of the
methane reaches the ocean surface and then wafts into the atmosphere.
AT: Methane Doesn’t Reach Surface
Methane bursts exacerbates global warming- travels rapidly to ocean
surface
Gas Daily ‘6 [Experts say methane hydrates offer promise, peril, July 25, 2006,
http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/?verb=sr&csi=160956&sr=HLEA
D(Experts%20say%20methane%20hydrates%20offer%20promise,%20peril)%20and%20date%20is%202
006]
While some government and industry officials believe methane hydrates represent a monumental source of natural gas sometime in
the future, a researcher in California has concluded that a hydrate "blowout" on the ocean floor could have a
devastating impact on the environment. Ira Leifer, a marine scientist at the University of California at
Santa Barbara, studied several methane hydrate seepages off the coast of Southern California. In a report released late last week,
he said sudden releases of large volumes of gas could travel in a column to the ocean surface rather than
being reabsorbed by the water. The issue has become part of the international debate on global warming, with some climate
experts speculating that rising ocean temperatures could result in methane hydrate deposits becoming destabilized,
causes the gas to be vented into the atmosphere where it could exacerbate the global warming
phenomenon. Atmospheric methane, CH4, "is the most abundant organic compound in the atmosphere and
an important greenhouse gas at least 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide CO2 ," Leifer wrote in Global
Biogeochemical Cycles. Learning the degree to which methane releases from deep in the ocean might lead to gas entering the
atmosphere "may be significant both to understanding past rapid climate changes, but also the implications of warmer future
oceans." "The rate of discharge is an important factor in determining whether CH4 released from ocean
depths beyond the continental shelves can reach the atmosphere," Liefer wrote. "The answer is likely
controlled by the magnitude of the sudden discharge, which if large enough will allow transport of CH4 to
the sea surface with minimal dissolution in the ocean."
Global warming will destabilize methane hydrates and release methane into
the air – models prove
Fyke and Weaver, 2006 - climate modeler and scientist at School of Earth and
Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria [Jeremy, , Andrew, Lead Author in the IPCC The Effect
of Potential Future Climate Change on the Marine Methane Hydrate Stability Zone, Journal of Climate,
July 12, 2005, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
Important regions are those in which the BHSZ shoals to the seafloor, rendering the entire sediment
column unstable with respect to methane hydrate. In these regions, methane that is mobilized during
hydrate dissociation is not able to re-form higher up in the sediment column and is therefore most likely
to enter the exogenic carbon cycle. Cells within the model that ex- perience total GHSZ loss are therefore binned during
each GHSZ model run, and the spatial and temporal distributions of these cells are examined to give an in- dication of areas and
times that are potentially most prone to large-scale methane flux into the ocean or atmosphere. Using � � 5 � 10�7 m2 s�1,
Equil2000 experiences some regions with total GHSZ loss, particularly in lo- cations within the Okhotsk Sea
and off the coast of Britain (Fig. 12a). These cells, totaling approximately 1% of the total continental margin area, occur in re
gions of shallow bathymetry that exhibit shallow pre- warming BHSZs (maximum 88 mbsf). The first cells to experience total GHSZ
loss appear after 400 yr of model integration (year 2250), and subsequent cells be- come completely unstable for the next 900 yr
(until year 3150). Equil2050 exhibits a greater area under which complete GHSZ loss occurs with binned cells
appearing over 4% of the total margin area (Fig. 12b), including coherent regions around Great Britain, New
Zealand, and in the Japan Sea. GHSZs are totally destabilized from depths of up to 190 mbsf over a period beginning 400 yr
into the model integration and lasting for 2300 yr. Equil2100 displays the greatest amount of total GHSZ loss, with 9% of the
continental margin (Fig. 12c) completely destabilizing from depths of up to 239 mbsl (due to maximum seafloor temperature
increases of up to 8°C). Regions of coherent total GHSZ loss that existed in Equil2050 increase in size and numerous additional
regions appear along continental margins. The period over which cells experience total GHSZ loss in Equil2100 begins 400 yr into
the model integration and lasts for 2900 yr.
AT: Non-Unique – CO2 Warming Now
Methane Hydrate melting will cause runaway warming – it has a much
larger temperature effect than CO2
Clarke Jr., 2008 – Former Aide to president Carter [Thomas, Environmental lawyer and
Former aide to president carter, Substantial quantities of extractable methane hydrates identified in
Alaska http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsroom/top-emerging-trends/b/emerging-trends-lawblog/archive/2008/11/13/substantial-quantities-of-extractable-methane-hydrates-identified-inalaska.aspx
Methane hydrates (aka frozen gas, frozen methane, gas clathrates, gas hydrates, clathrate hydrates) are water ice that contain a large
amount of methane (aka natural gas) within their crystalline structure [see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_hydrate]. Paleo
geologists point to the melting of methane hydrates as one reason why the "snow-ball Earth" (when the Earth was covered almost
completely with thick sheets of ice [see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth]) was able to unfreeze approximately 600+
million years ago. Climatologists today are concerned that the melting of the Earth’s methane hydrates will
help drive global warming to a significant temperature increase [see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_Gun_Hypothesis]. [As noted in a prior post: "This means that a methane emission
will have 25 times the impact on temperature of a carbon dioxide emission of the same mass over the
following 100-year period. Methane has a large effect for a brief period (a net lifetime of 8.4 years in the
atmosphere), whereas carbon dioxide has a small effect for a long period (over 100 years ). Because of this
difference in effect and time period, the global warming potential of methane over a 20-year time period is
a whopping 72. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane."] Methane, or natural gas, is desirable because it is more
environmentally benign than other hydrocarbons. [See http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/background.asp.]
Ocean methane leaks accelerate warming – methane is stronger than
carbon dioxide
Lutter, 2010 -- ecologist, zoologist, and contributor to the World Ocean Review
[Stephan Lutter, 2010, Climate Change Impacts on Methane Hydrates -- The World Ocean Review
Company] http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methanehydrates/
There are indications in the history of the Earth suggesting that climatic changes in the past could have
led to the destabilization of methane hydrates and thus to the release of methane. These indications – including
measurements of the methane content in ice cores, for instance – are still controversial. Yet be this as it may, the issue is highly
topical and is of particular interest to scientists concerned with predicting the possible impacts of a temperature increase
on the present deposits of methane hydrate. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, around 20 times more
effective per molecule than carbon dioxide. An increased release from the ocean into the atmosphere
could further intensify the greenhouse effect. Investigations of methane hydrates stability in dependence of
temperature fluctuations, as well as of methane behavior after it is released, are therefore urgently needed. Various methods
are employed to predict the future development. These include, in particular, mathematic modelling. Computer models first
calculate the hypothetical amount of methane hydrates in the sea floor using background data (organic content, pressure,
temperature). Then the computer simulates the warming of the seawater, for instance, by 3 or 5 degrees Celsius per 100 years. In
this way it is possible to determine how the methane hydrate will behave in different regions. Calculations of methane hydrate
deposits can than be coupled with complex mathematical climate and ocean models. With these computer models we get a broad
idea of how strongly the methane hydrates would break down under the various scenarios of temperature increase. Today it is
assumed that in the worst case, with a steady warming of the ocean of 3 degrees Celsius, around 85 per
cent of the methane trapped in the sea floor could be released into the water column.
Japan Cooperation Adv
Ext – Japan Dependence Increasing
Japanese energy dependence is increasing – studies prove
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 [ Japan Energy: Overview, October 29, 2013,
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ja, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
Consequently, Japan relies almost solely on imports to meet its oil consumption needs. Japan maintains
government-controlled oil stocks to ensure against a supply interruption. According to the International Energy Agency, total
strategic crude oil stocks in Japan were 590 million barrels at the end of December 2012, where 55% of those were government
stocks and 45% commercial stocks. Japan consumed over 4.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil in 2012, making it
the third largest petroleum consumer in the world, behind the United States and China. However, oil demand in Japan
has declined overall since 2000 by nearly 15%. This decline stems from structural factors, such as fuel substitution, a declining
population, and government-mandated energy efficiency targets. In addition to the shift to natural gas in the industrial sector, fuel
substitution is occurring in the residential sector as high prices have decreased demand for kerosene in home heating. Japan
consumes most of its oil in the transportation and industrial sectors, and it is also highly dependent on naphtha and low-sulfur fuel
oil imports. Demand for naphtha has fallen as ethylene production is gradually being displaced by petrochemical production in other
Asian countries. Demand for low-sulfur fuel oil and direct use of crude oil rose substantially in 2012 as these fuels replaced some
nuclear electric power generation and supported the post-disaster reconstruction works. Japan's oil consumption rose by
244,000 bbl/d in 2012 from the 2011 level. EIA assumes that net total oil consumption will decline starting in 2013 as
nuclear capacity comes back online.
Ext – Dependence Kills Japan’s Economy
Japanese energy dependence kills its economy due to its trade deficit
Pagliarulo, 2013 - Analyst at Global Risk Insights [Ned, risk management firm, Fukushima
Amplifies Japanese Energy Import Dependence, Global Risk Insights, Tue, 29 October 2013,
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Fukushima-Amplifies-Japanese-Energy-ImportDependence.html, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
As the clean-up from the disaster continues, all fifty of Japan’s nuclear reactors have been taken offline, creating a large shortfall in
energy production that Japan has had to fill from abroad. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Japan
falls far short of providing enough energy for its domestic uses, with only 16% domestic energy production. Not
surprisingly, Japan needs to import heavily — it is the world largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Before
the disaster at Fukushima and the following reevaluation of nuclear power in Japan, nuclear sources supplied 13% of Japan’s energy
consumption. The EIA notes in another report that “Japan’s electric power utilities have been consuming more
natural gas and petroleum to make up for the shortfall in nuclear output …” With this shift, fossil fuel use has
jumped 21% in 2012 compared to 2011 levels. High energy costs in the near term (the IMF forecasts that the spot price
for crude will remain above $100/barrel for 2014) pose a problem for Japan’s trade balance . As Japan imports more
fossil fuels, its trade deficit widens (Japan ran a surplus before 2011). This hurts its current account, which has
shrunk considerably. While the depreciation of the yen would usually helps by making exports competitive,
the IMF’s Article 4 consultation with Japan noted that the weaker yen has yet to improve the current account.
Japanese energy dependence cripples its power – they lack domestic
supplies, and every part of their military and economy is vulnerable
McCann, 2012 - Senior Advisor at Department of Defense of Australia [Linda, Japan’s
Energy Security Challenges: the world is watching, Australian Defense College, October 2012,
http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/docs/Publications2012/08_SAP%20Linda%20McCann%20%20Japan.pdf, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
What is energy security? The Australian Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism defines energy security simply as ‘...the
adequate reliable and competitive supply of energy’.12 The International Energy Agency includes consideration of the environment
in its definition, ‘...the uninterrupted physical availability at a price which is affordable, while respecting environment concerns’.13
Von Hippel et al argued in 2009 that environmental protection must be incorporated into concepts of energy security.14 Noting that
energy security overlaps with the concept of sustainability, their comprehensive energy security concept
has ‘energy supply, economic, technological, environmental, social and cultural and military/security
dimensions.’15 For the purposes of this paper, I define energy security as continuing access to sufficient energy, at affordable
prices, to sustain the Japanese economy and meet domestic demand, while enabling Japan to meet its greenhouse gas (GHG)
emission reduction targets. Energy security is inextricably linked to national security. Arguably, the single most
important institution for any country’s national security is an effective military . While Japan has the most
capable defence force in the region, it relies very heavily on imported energy to power its aircraft, ships, land
vehicles, generators, communication and computer systems. Other factors important to national security,
such as a strong economy, functioning government, and law and order institutions, also rely heavily on
energy to function. Japan’s Energy Profile To quote Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in its
Energy in Japan 2010 report, ‘Energy is used for the production of everything’.16 Japan’s Basic Energy Act of 2002
begins, ‘Energy is essential to the maintenance and development of the national economy and enhancing the
stability of people’s lives.’ While energy security is important for all countries it is particularly important for Japan
because it has so little of its own energy resources and has to rely heavily on imports. Japan has very little
in the way of indigenous energy resources and much of what it does have is relatively expensive to access .
Japan has only very small reserves of oil and gas, with less than two per cent of Japan’s oil and gas requirements being met
domestically.17 Japan has a small amount of coal but it has been expensive to mine and produce, compared to imports from
countries like Australia, so it has been heavily subsidised but ultimately uncompetitive. Figure one illustrates just how heavily Japan
relies on imported oil products to meet domestic consumption.
Japanese dependence kills its economy – oil price spikes
McCann, 2012 - Senior Advisor at Department of Defense of Australia [Linda, Japan’s
Energy Security Challenges: the world is watching, Australian Defense College, October 2012,
http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/docs/Publications2012/08_SAP%20Linda%20McCann%20%20Japan.pdf, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
In February 2011, when oil prices rose as a result of the Arab Spring moving across the Middle East, then Japanese Prime
Minister Kan :said, ‘Japan relies on the Middle East for almost all the oil it needs . I am concerned about
the outlook’.45 Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Banri Kaieda echoed these concerns when he noted, ‘The
largest risk that could be a drag on Japan's economic recovery is rising crude oil prices due to the political
unrest in the Middle East.’46 Over the short term, Japan cannot do much about its reliance on Middle Eastern oil .
So what can Japan do to ensure continued access to this source? Japanese Foreign Minister Gemba said in January 2012
that it is important for Japan to ‘transform challenges into opportunities’. He also noted that he was committed to
proactive diplomacy. Gemba acknowledged in the same speech that Japan should continue efforts to ‘build stronger relationships
with resources supplying countries and the countries that lie along the transportation routes’.
Natural gas imports are killing Japan economy, analysis finds
McCann, 2012 - Senior Advisor at Department of Defense of Australia [Linda, Japan’s
Energy Security Challenges: the world is watching, Australian Defense College, October 2012,
http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/docs/Publications2012/08_SAP%20Linda%20McCann%20%20Japan.pdf, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
Japan can’t afford to keep importing so much energy. Japan’s public debt to GDP ratio is the worst in the
world, using IMF 2011 figures, at 230 per cent. By way of comparison, the EU’s public debt to GDP ratio is 82.5 per cent106 and
Australia’s is 23 per cent.107 While most of this debt is owed to the Japanese public, it still creates a significant issue for
fiscal management by the government. In January 2012, Japan’s trade deficit was a record 1.48 trillion yen,
due in part to large imports of LNG and other energy.108 Japan’s trade deficit the year before, in 2011, was the
first in 31 years and attributed in part to rising crude oil prices, the increase in the price of LNG and the rise in
LNG imports.109 What was so notable about the trade deficit in 2011 was that Japan went from a trade surplus of 6.6 trillion yen
in 2010 to a deficit of 2.6 trillion yen.
Japanese oil dependence kills its economy – it is empirically vulnerable to
price shocks and it is increasing the trade deficit
Vivoda, 2012 - Research Fellow at Griffith Asia Institute [Vlado, , Japan’s Energy Security
Predicament post-Fukushima, Griffith Asia Institute,
http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/46411/78410_1.pdf?sequence=1, Acc.
Jun 26 2014] LS
Japan is the world’s fifth largest energy consumer, and a resource-poor country, which imports close to all
of its fossil fuel requirements. Large demand for energy and high import dependence has made energy
security as one of the priorities of any government in Tokyo , particularly since the two oil crises in the 1970s. The
1973 and 1979 oil crises caused the Japanese economy to record negative growth rates for the first time in
its post-war history. Their impact on the lives of ordinary Japanese remains deeply etched on people’s minds. As a result, the
Japanese government adopted policies aimed at improving energy efficiency and reducing the demand for oil. These policies have
resulted in unprecedented success. Consequently, Japan is now the most energy-efficient country in the world (The Economist,
2011). In addition, Japan’s oil demand dropped from 5.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 1979 to 4.4 million bpd in 2010, due to
vehicle efficiency gains and conversion to other electricity sources. The share of oil in total energy consumption has declined from
about 72% in 1979 to 40% in 2010 (BP, 2011). Today after three decades, energy security is once again at the center
of attention among Japanese policy-makers and the general public. However, unlike in the 1970s, when the focus
was on affordability and security of oil supplies, the current challenge is multidimensional. While the renewed interest in energy
security issues was triggered by record oil prices in 2008, it was brought to the forefront of public debate in the aftermath of March
11, 2011 (hitherto referred to as 3/11) earthquake and tsunami, which caused a nuclear catastrophe in TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear power plant. Such was the extent of the shock caused by the events on 3/11 on Japan’s economy, the
existing energy system and energy security, that in 2011 Japan recorded its first trade deficit (¥2.5 trillion)
since the aftermath of the oil crisis in 1980. This trade deficit was mainly caused by a jump of 25.2% (¥4.3
trillion) in fossil fuel imports, which in 2011 made up close to one third of Japan’s import spending (World Nuclear News,
2012). Consequently, largely absent since the two oil crises in the 1970s, the energy security debate in Japan has been
revived in the aftermath of the 3/11 disaster. Some analysts have suggested that Japan should move away from nuclear
energy citing safety concerns in an earthquake prone country which lies on several fault lines. For example, the Japanese
government has claimed it is scrapping plans to build as many as 14 new nuclear reactors over the next two decades. It is worth
recalling that the government-stated plans were to increase nuclear’s share of total electricity generation from 24% in 2008 to 4050% by 2030, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (Ferguson, 2011). The former Prime Minister (PM)
Naoto Kan announced that the government would have to “start from scratch” in devising a new energy policy for the country. He
has announced a major energy policy review that would promote solar and other alternative energies, stating that Japan should
increase the share of renewable energy in power generation to 20% by the early 2020s (Johnston, 2011). In September 2011, the new
PM Yoshihiko Noda, confirmed previous PM’s decision, and decided to review energy policy with a mind to possibly reducing future
dependence on nuclear power.
Japanese oil dependence leaves it vulnerable – China can disrupt supply
easily – methane hydrates are key to solve
Fitzpatrick, 2010 – Science reporter for the BBC [Michael, methane release looks stronger,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8437703.stm]
In the wake of the Fukushima disaster and the resulting shut-down of its considerable nuclear generation
capacity (its contribution to national power production fell from 26% in 2011 to less than 2% in 2012[7]),
Japan’s already extreme dependence on energy imports has been notably worsened. Japan is today the world’s biggest importer of
LNG (its share in the electricity mix leapt from 27% to 48% between 2011 and 2012[8]). It also comes second for coal and third for
oil. Gas spot prices in Japan ̶ and East Asia more generally ̶ are today twice those in Europe and http:// three times those in
Northern America. A new energy resource that Japan could call its own would therefore bring badly needed relief to a
country that fears for its energy security and rapidly degrading trade balance.[9] On the strategic side of the story, it is essential to
keep in mind that the bulk of Japan’s fossil fuel imports comes from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and
United Arab Emirates) and
South East Asia (Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia). Before reaching Japanese ports, the
tankers transit through the Malacca straits and the South and East China seas, i.e. within arm’s reach of
China. In this context, three factors have brought Japan’s energy security worries to an all-time peak: first,
the flaring-up of tensions between China and its neighbours over the South and East China Seas, which
threatened to turn into full-blown regional confrontation following China’s unilateral announcement of a new Air
Defence Identification Zone in November 2013; second, the extremely strained relations between Tokyo and Beijing
over the Diaoyu-Senkaku Islands; and third, the periodical surge of nationalistic and hawkish rhetoric that has
characterized the Japan-China relationship over the last decades, against the background of the bad blood left by
Japan’s refusal to apologize for (or even recognize, for that matter) large-scale abuses during the Second World War.
Ext – Japan Economy Impacts
Japanese economic decline hurts the US economy – financing our deficits is
key to interest rates
Chanlett-Avery et al. 13. Specialist in Asian Affairs. [Emma, Mark E. Manyin Specialist in
Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart Analyst in
Asian Affairs. February 15,
2013http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA577937] SALH
Japan is one of the United States’ most important economic partners. Outside of North America, it is the United
States’ second-largest export market and second-largest source of imports. Japanese firms are the United States’ secondlargest source of foreign direct investment, and Japanese investors are the second-largest foreign holders
of U.S. treasuries, helping to finance the U.S. deficit and reduce upward pressure on U.S. interest rates.
One exception was U.S. criticism over Japan’s decision in 2003 to ban imports of U.S. beef, which have since resumed, resolving one
issue that could have been an obstacle to the United States agreeing to Japan’s joining the TPP.
Japanese economic downturn will cause tensions with China – empirically
proven
Dodrill 2013 [Tara Financial reporter for off the grid news Is japan the next economic domino to fall?
http://www.offthegridnews.com/2013/05/29/is-japan-the-next-economic-domino-to-fall/]
“Like I said, Greece doesn’t matter. Japan does matter. That’s a massive, massive financial center, big
banking center, and I think they have real problems coming their way sooner rather than later—banks
too—and the electorate voted for it. They elected a new prime minister who I think has set the fuse on
their debt bomb. So as Shinzo Abe [Japan’s Prime Minister] tries to weaken the yen—he said flat-out ‘I want to weaken the yen
and generate inflation’—he is creating… all those imports now cost more, most notably energy. Why would you do
that if you have a current account deficit? This makes absolutely no sense to me.” Knippa’s observation that Abe
sees a weakening of the yen as an opportunity to increase exports appears extremely valid. Abe’s plan seems to be imploding
upon itself due to an ongoing fuss with Japan’s biggest export partner—China. When expanding upon the
increasing animosity between Japan and China, Knippa stated: “I’ve got friends in China who’ve sent me pictures of
car dealerships where they have to have night security watchmen because they are Japanese companies—
Nissan, Honda, things like that—because people are so angry at the Japanese, they’re throwing rocks at
the cars and trying to break the windows and things like that. The export market to China is in real problems.”
Japanese economic decline hurts the US economy – we depend on Japan
for investment
Beeson 2002— Professor of International Politics at Murdoch University (Mark,
Winthrop Professor of International Relations and Political Science at the University of Western
Australia, “The Clash: US-Japanese Relations Throughout History / The Japan-US Alliance: New
Challenges for the 21st Century / Troubled Times: US-Japan Trade Relations in the...” Journal of
Contemporary Asia, 2002, Proquest, Accessed 26 June 2014) DZ
While the "Japan problem" may not currently assume the significance in the US that it did in the 1980s and early '90s, this does not
mean that it will not become an issue again. While there is a good deal of smug triumphalism about the
performance of the US economy and the apparent demise of its Asian rivals (see, for example, Zuckerman 1998),
there are substantial grounds for questioning the durability of the "American miracle." Whether it is the
volatility of the US stock market, unsustainable levels of consumer debt, expanding trade deficits or more
fundamental structural problems in a global economy increasingly prone to violent and unpredictable
changes of mood and direction (Brenner 2001), there are compelling reasons to think that the US may
eventually be forced to confront uncomfortable domestic economic and social issues of its own before too
long. If so, it will not be surprising if it also adopts a less benign attitude toward key economic partners. And yet this will not be an
easy or cost-free exercise. For all Japan's present problems and America's current hubris, the US has become increasingly
dependent on inflows of Japanese capital to sustain domestic consumption and a low interest rate regime
that has underpinned its fragile stock market (Murphy 1997). In the event of a significant economic downturn in the US,
the nature of this interdependency and America's vulnerability to Japanese economic conditions and
decisions may become apparent once more.
Ext – Plan Increases Cooperation
Methane hydrate mining increases cooperation with Japan, which speeds
up development
Kumagai, 2013 – Staff Writer [Takeo, Staff Writer for the International Gas Report, Platts
McGraw Hill, Japan urges US to move forward methane hydrate cooperation agreement, Source, Full
Date, http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/tokyo/japan-urges-us-to-move-forward-methanehydrate-27583047, June 29, 2014] KF
Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Toshimitsu Motegi, Thursday asked visiting US energy secretary
Ernest Moniz to move forward the two countries' bilateral agreement on methane hydrate cooperation , a
METI source said. The request was made during a ministerial-level meeting in Tokyo, where the ministers met for the first time
since they last met in Washington in July, the source said. Tokyo's request was made to move forward a state of
intent, which METI and the US Department of Energy signed in 2008, to work together to develop methane hydrate
production, the source said. The source, however, declined to disclose the response from Moniz on its request during the bilateral
meeting. During a lecture in Tokyo earlier Thursday, Moniz, however, pointed to METI's long-running research into extracting gas
from undersea methane hydrate deposits. (see story 0907 GMT) "Methane hydrates represent research challenges but a very
important resource potential," said Moniz, a physics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology before President Obama
appointed him. "In my former life at MIT, when we wrote on natural gas, we noted that methane hydrates could be the next big
revolution following shale gas, although it will take some time, certainly, to make this a commercially viable activity." Under the
2008 agreement, the two countries said the proposed cooperation would enhance understanding of gas
hydrates and speed up research into their exploration and development.
US methane hydrate research and development is done cooperatively with
Japan
Anderson 14 – BBC News Business Reporter (Richard BBC News, Published April 16, 2014
“Methane Hydrate: Dirty Fuel or Energy Saviour” http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610) RF
The US, Canada and
Japan have all ploughed millions of dollars into research and have carried out a
number of test projects, while South Korea, India and China are also looking at developing their reserves. The US launched
a national research and development programme as far back as 1982, and by 1995 had completed its assessment of gas
hydrate resources. It has since instigated pilot projects in the Blake Ridge area off the coast of South Carolina, on the Alaska
North Slope and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, with five projects still running . "The department continues to
do research and development to better understand this domestic resource... [which we see] as an exciting
opportunity with enormous potential," says Chris Smith of the US Department of Energy. The US has worked
closely with Canada and Japan and there have been a number of successful production tests since 1998,
most recently in Alaska in 2012 and, more significantly, in the Nankai Trough off the central coast of Japan in
March last year - the first successful offshore extraction of natural gas from methane hydrate.
Ext – US Japan Cooperation Impacts
US Japan cooperation is key to block North Korean provocations and
proliferation
Chanlett-Avery et al. 13. Specialist in Asian Affairs. [Emma, Mark E. Manyin Specialist in
Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart Analyst in
Asian Affairs. February 15,
2013http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA577937] SALH
Since 2009, Washington and Tokyo have been strongly united in their approach to North Korea. Although
the U.S. and Japanese positions diverged in the later years of the Bush Administration, Pyongyang’s string of provocations
in 2009-2010 forged a new consensus among Japan, South Korea, and the United States . North Korea’s
provocations have helped to drive enhanced trilateral security cooperation between Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul. Japan also
appeared to be at least somewhat in synch with the United States in late 2011 and early 2012 when the
Obama Administration—with the blessing of the South Korean government—was negotiating agreements
with North Korea over its nuclear and missile programs and food aid. North Korea’s 2012 missile launches and the
February 2013 nuclear test are likely to drive closer cooperation among the three governments. Tokyo has adopted a relatively
hardline policy against North Korea and plays a leadership role at the United Nations in pushing for stronger
punishment for the Pyongyang regime for its military provocations and human rights abuses. Japan has
imposed a virtual embargo on all trade with North Korea. North Korea’s missile tests have demonstrated that a strike on Japan is
well within range, spurring Japan to move forward on missile defense cooperation with the United States. In addition to Japan’s
concern about Pyongyang’s weapons and delivery systems, the issue of several Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in
the 1970s and 1980s remains a top priority for Tokyo. Japan has pledged that it will not provide economic aid to North Korea
without resolution of the abductee issue. The abductee issue remains an emotional topic in Japan. In 2008, the Bush
Administration’s decision to remove North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism in exchange for North Korean
concessions on its nuclear program dismayed Japanese officials, who had maintained that North Korea’s status on the list should be
linked to the abduction issue. Although the abductions issue has lost potency in recent years, Abe came onto the political scene in the
early 2000s as a fierce advocate for the abductees and their families and could dedicate attention to the issue.
US Japan cooperation is key to nuclear policy and anti-proliferation
leadership
Chanlett-Avery et al. 13. Specialist in Asian Affairs. [Emma, Mark E. Manyin Specialist in
Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart Analyst in
Asian Affairs. February 15,
2013http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA577937] SALH
Japan is undergoing a national debate on the future of nuclear power, with major implications for
businesses operating in Japan, U.S.-Japan nuclear energy cooperation, and nuclear safety and non-proliferation
measures worldwide. Looking back to 2006, the “New National Energy Strategy” had set out a goal of significantly increasing
Japan’s nuclear power generating capacity, partly as a way to decrease dependence on foreign energy supplies and partly to decrease
emissions of greenhouse gases. By 2011, nuclear power was providing roughly 30% of Japan’s power generation capacity. The policy
of expanding nuclear power encountered an abrupt reversal in the aftermath of the March 11, 2011, natural disasters and meltdowns
at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Public trust in the safety of nuclear power collapsed, and a vocal anti-nuclear political
movement emerged. This movement tapped into an undercurrent of anti-nuclear sentiment in modern Japanese society based on its
legacy as the victim of atomic bombing in 1945. As the nation’s 54 nuclear reactors were shut down one by one for their annual safety
inspections in the months after March 2011, the Japanese government did not restart them—except for two reactors at one site in
central Japan. The drawdown of nuclear power generation resulted in many short- and long-term consequences for Japan: rising
electricity costs for residences and businesses; heightened risk of blackouts in the summer, especially in the Kansai region;
widespread energy conservation efforts by businesses, government agencies, and ordinary citizens; the possible bankruptcy of major
utility companies; and increased fossil fuel imports (see next section). The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, calculated that the
nuclear shutdowns led to the loss of 420,000 jobs and $25 billion in corporate revenue in 2012. With prominent intellectuals and
politicians calling for the end of nuclear power in Japan, the DPJ attempted to author a long-term energy policy. On September 14,
2012, the sub-Cabinetlevel Energy and Environment Council announced an ambitious plan to eliminate all nuclear power generation
in Japan by 2030. Leading voices in the Japanese business community harshly criticized the plan and warned of the hollowing out of
Japanese industry. One week later, the Noda Cabinet announced a more flexible “Innovative Strategy for Energy
and the Environment,” which pushed back the deadline for nuclear drawdown to 2040, continued the
present nuclear fuel cycle policy, and allowed the completion of under-construction plants and possible
reactor lifespan extensions past 2040. American observers have raised concerns about losing Japan as a
global partner in promoting nuclear safety and non-proliferation measures.
US Japan cooperation key to avoid conflict with China – crisis over the
Senkakus is escalating
Chanlett-Avery et al. 13. Specialist in Asian Affairs. [Emma, Mark E. Manyin Specialist in
Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart Analyst in
Asian Affairs. February 15,
2013http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA577937] SALH
Japan and China have engaged in a struggle over islets in the East China Sea known as the Senkakus in
Japan, Diaoyu in China, and Diaoyutai in Taiwan, which has grown increasingly heated in the past six
months. The uninhabited territory, administered by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan, has
been a subject of contention for years, despite modest attempts by Tokyo and Beijing to jointly develop
the potentially rich energy deposits nearby, most recently in 2008-2010. In August 2012, the Japanese government
purchased three of the five islands from a private landowner in order to preempt their sale to Tokyo’s
nationalist governor Shintaro Ishihara, who now is a leader of the aforementioned Japan Restoration Party. Although
intended to tamp down the controversy, Japan’s “nationalization” of the territory upset the status quo, leading to massive Chinese
protests, sharp objections from Beijing, and a drop in Sino-Japanese trade. Since then, China has conducted increasingly
aggressive operations by dispatching both military and maritime law enforcement ships and aircraft to the
area, compelling the Japanese to respond with their own forces and heightening the potential for
escalation. On one occasion both countries scrambled fighter jets, and subsequently a Japanese official publicly mulled firing
warning shots. In February 2013, the Japanese government reported that a Chinese naval ship locked its
weapons-targeting radar on Japanese assets on two occasions. Although no shots were fired, the incident
was considered a major escalation in the standoff and sparked questions about whether the Chinese operator was acting
on orders from Beijing, military commanders, or his own discretion. Beijing has denied the accusation. The United States has
remained neutral on the sovereignty of the islands but re-affirmed that the territory is covered under Article Five of the U.S.-Japan
Security, which stipulates that the United States is bound to protect “the territories under the Administration of Japan” and Japan
administers the Senkakus (Diaoyu Islands). The Treaty obligates the United States to defend Japan. Due to the risk of U.S.
involvement in military operations, U.S. officials have urged caution and encouraged both sides to avoid a conflict. The
Senkaku/Diaoyu conflict embodies Japan’s security challenges. The maritime confrontation with Beijing is
a concrete manifestation of the threat Japan has faced for years from China’s rising regional power. It also
brings into relief Japan’s dependence on the U.S. security guarantee and its anxiety that Washington will
not defend Japanese territory if it risks going to war with China. Operationally, Japan has an acute need for its
military, known as the Japan Self Defense Forces, to build up their capacity in the southwest part of the archipelago. Similarly, many
observers cite the lack of coordination and clear delineation of responsibilities between the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces
and Coast Guard.
Senkaku conflicts will escalate – the US is obligated to support Japan
Jade 2014 - JD Candidate at Cornell [Harry, Cornell International Law Journal, A Solution
Acceptable to All? A Legal Analysis of the Senkaku-Diaoyu Island Dispute., Ebsco, Accessed Jun24 2014],
LS
Article II states that treaties, conventions, and other agreements concluded between Japan and the United
States of America, including, but without limitation to the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between
Japan and the United States of America . . . become apphcable to the Ryukyu Islands and the Daito Islands
as of the date of entry into force of this Agreement.''^ In other words, in the event of an armed attack on the
Senkaku-Diaoyu Islands, the United States has an explicit security obligation to maintain the integrity of
Japan's borders, including those islands for which it has only administrative rights. ''^ To corroborate Article II,
the Okinawa Rever- sion Treaty further stipulates in Article V that each party would act "in accordance with its
constitutional provisions and processes in response to an armed attack . . . in the territories under the
administration of Japan."'''^ Since the official transfer of administrative rights to Japan, tensions have risen as China
has continued to make public claims to the islands.''^ The waters surrounding the islands have seen minor
skirmishes amongst private citizens on fishing boats, as well as a number of symbolic landings on the
islands, but thus far there has been no outright government- endorsed aggression from either country.'"'' One scholar
identified China's uncharacteristically pacifist behavior as a "delaying strategy ," perhaps pro- longing this
potentially volatile dispute in the hopes of more favorable political conditions in the future.'''' Although Deng Xiaoping may have
made his statement''^ with good intentions, leaving the conflict to later generations has further clouded an already
complex foreign policy problem. In the years since Japan and the United States signed the Okinawa
Reversion Treaty, a nationalist move- ment relating to the Senkaku-Diaoyu dispute has matured in
Japan.''^ Indeed, Japan claims that it bought the three islands in a response to the right-wing "Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara's
April 2012 announcement in Washington, DC, that he intended to . . . purchase three of the eight [islands] from their private
owner."^°
US Japan alliance is key to Asian peace – it is necessary to prevent conflicts
with China over disputed islands through engagement
Armitage and Nye. 12. President of Armitage International and Dean emeritus of
the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. [August 2012
http://project2049.net/documents/120810_armitage_usjapanalliance_web.pdf] SALH
China’s meteoric rise in economic heft, military muscle, and political clout over the past three decades has not only dramatically
revamped the world’s most populous nation, it has also decisively shaped East Asia’s post–Cold War geopolitical landscape. Far
from being a constraint on China’s re-rise, the strong U.S.-Japan alliance has contributed to it by helping
to provide a stable, predictable, and secure environment within which China has flourished. The alliance
has a stake in China’s success. However, the lack of transparency and ambiguity as to how China intends to use its newfound
power—to reinforce existing international norms, to revise them according to Beijing’s national interests, or both—is an area of
growing concern. One area of particular unease is China’s possibly expanding core interests. In addition to the official three—
Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan—there has been reference to the South China Sea and the Senkaku Islands as
emerging interests. While the latter are unofficial and undeclared, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
Navy’s increased presence in the South China Sea and East China Sea leads us to deduce otherwise. The
shared theme of sovereignty further raises questions about Beijing’s intentions in the Senkakus and the South China Sea. One
thing is certain—China’s ambiguity of core interest claims further reduces its diplomatic credibility in the
region. The alliance’s strategy toward China has been a blend of engagement and hedging, befitting the
uncertainties about how China might choose to use its rapidly growing comprehensive national power . But
most aspects of the allied hedge against China’s growing military power and political assertiveness—the gradual expansion in the
geographic scope of alliance activities, joint work on missile defense technologies, heightened attention to interoperability and to
missions related to sustaining sea lines of communication, efforts to strengthen regional institutions such as the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), renewed focus on freedom of navigation, and the launch in December 2011 of a new trilateral
U.S.-Japan-India strategic dialogue—have been based on the assumption that China will continue along a path of high economic
growth, making possible comparable increases in defense spending and capabilities. That assumption is no longer assured. As China
moves into its fourth decade since the launch of “reform and opening up” by Deng Xiao-ping in 1979, there are many indications that
growth is slowing. Questions exist about the ability of China to move from an export-led to internal consumption- driven economy.
In the years ahead, China’s leaders will have to tackle at least six demons: energy constraints, calamitous environmental
degradation, daunting demographic realities, widening income inequality among people and provinces, restive ethnic minorities in
Xinjiang and Tibet, and endemic official corruption. Economic success adds to this list the uncertainty of coping with the “middle
income trap,” whereby a growing middle income cohort puts exceptional pressure on the Chinese political structure to meet rising
expectations. Any one of these challenges could derail China’s economic growth path and threaten social stability. The Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) is aware of these daunting challenges, which is one reason its leaders boosted spending on internal security
to more than $120 billion for 2012, roughly comparable to the defense budget. The PLA remains focused on developing the
wherewithal to deal with external threats, including deterring Taiwan from moves toward de jure independence. But, the CCP is
equally concerned about internal threats. A China that stumbles badly could present the alliance with challenges
that are not necessarily smaller—just different. We all have much to gain from a peaceful and prosperous
China.
A strong US Japan alliance is key to Asian peace – it constrains Korean and
Chinese aggression and preserves regional stability
Armitage and Nye. 12. President of Armitage International and Dean emeritus of
the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. [August 2012
http://project2049.net/documents/120810_armitage_usjapanalliance_web.pdf] SALH
This report on the U.S.-Japan alliance comes at a time of drift in the relationship. As leaders in both the United
States and
Japan face a myriad of other challenges, the health and welfare of one of the world’s most important
alliances is endangered. Although the arduous efforts of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his
colleagues in both governments have largely kept the alliance stable, today’s challenges and opportunities
in the region and beyond demand more. Together, we face the re-rise of China and its attendant
uncertainties, North Korea with its nuclear capabilities and hostile intentions, and the promise of Asia’s
dynamism. Elsewhere, there are the many challenges of a globalized world and an increasingly complex security environment. A
stronger and more equal alliance is required to adequately address these and other great issues of the day.
For such an alliance to exist, the United States and Japan will need to come to it from the perspective, and as the embodiment, of
tier-one nations. In our view, tier-one nations have significant economic weight, capable military forces, global vision, and
demonstrated leadership on international concerns. Although there are areas in which the United States can better support the
alliance, we have no doubt of the United States’ continuing tier-one status. For Japan, however, there is a decision to be made. Does
Japan desire to continue to be a tier-one nation, or is she content to drift into tier-two status? If tier-two status is good enough for
the Japanese people and their government, this report will not be of interest. Our assessment of, and recommendations for, the
alliance depend on Japan being a full partner on the world stage where she has much to contribute. In posing this question, we are
cognizant of the problems confounding Japan’s influence and role in the world today. Japan has a dramatically aging population and
declining birth rate. Her debt-to-GDP ratio is over 200 percent. The Japanese people have been served by six different prime
ministers in six years. And, there is a growing sense of pessimism and inward focus among many young Japanese. But, Japan is not
destined to see her importance wane. Japan is fully capable of remaining a tier-one nation. It is only a question of her disposition. As
many challenges as Japan faces, there exist many underappreciated and underutilized dimensions of Japan’s national power and
influence. Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, with a consumer sector twice the size of China’s. Japan continues to have
tremendous economic potential that could be unleashed by reform and competition. More openness to free trade and immigration
and greater participation by women in the workforce would add significantly to Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
Japan’s soft power is also considerable. She rates among the top three countries in international respect and first in the world in
terms of “national brand.” Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (JSDF)—now the most trusted institution in Japan—are poised to play a
larger role in enhancing Japanese security and reputation if anachronistic constraints can be eased. Japan is not an
insignificant country positioned in a quiet part of the world. The United States and others rely on Japan as
the maritime lynchpin to a stable, strategic equilibrium in the Asia-Pacific region; the second-largest contributor
to the United Nations (UN), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other leading multinational institutions; and the host of U.S.
forces that keep sea-lanes open for the world’s most dynamic hemisphere. The United States needs a strong Japan no
less than Japan needs a strong United States. And, it is from this perspective that we address the alliance and its
stewardship. For Japan to remain standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the United States, she will need to
move forward with us. Japan has been a leader in Asia in the past and can continue to be in the future. The
following report presents a consensus view of the members of a bipartisan study group on the U.S.-Japan alliance. The report
specifically addresses energy, economics and global trade, relations with neighbors, and security-related issues. Within these areas,
the study group offers policy recommendations for Japan and the United States, which span near- and long-term time frames.
These recommendations are intended to bolster the alliance as a force for peace, stability, and prosperity
in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
Ext – Cooperation Increases Development
Increased US Japan cooperation speeds development of methane hydrates
Liang 2008 - Editor for ChinaView News (Yan, Japan, U.S. agree to cooperate on methane
hydrates, , ChinaView News, 2008-06-07, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/200806/07/content_8325935.htm, 6/29/14)
Japan and the United States agreed on Saturday to conduct cooperation on joint development of methane
hydrates, a promising alternative energy. The agreement was signed by Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Akira
Amari and U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman during their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the five-party meeting of energy
ministers of China, Japan, India, South Korea and the United States. According to the agreement effective for three years,
Japan and the United States will enhance the understanding of, and accelerate research into, the geologic
occurrence, distribution, exploration and production of methane hydrates The two sides agreed to
exchange scientific personnel and technical information, and have extensive research with respect to
methane hydrate exploration and resource assessment. The agreement enjoyed good timing as crude oil price rocketed
to new record high the night before. Field testing of the production capability of Alaskan North Slope hydrate reservoirs will be
carried out under the agreement, Japanese officials said. The two sides believed that their cooperation over methane
hydrates carries far-reaching significance.
US Japanese methane hydrate cooperation is key to long term development
– even if it is a long term source, we need to develop it now
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
Many challenges must be tackled before methane hydrate extraction technology becomes viable for
commercial production of methane gas. JOGMEC acknowledges this and has agreed to continue to conduct impact
assessments and other research to see if methane hydrate can be made into an actual energy source rather than a potential one.45
Still, the United States and Japan should seek cooperation in the area of methane hydrate exploration as
part of their joint energy security strategies. While there is little need now for methane hydrates – especially in the US
with the abundance of shale gas – American and Japanese governments must realize the need to be ready to
produce natural gas from methane hydrates in the future. “If you wait until you need it, and then you have
20 years of research to do, that’s not a good plan,” said Ray Boswell, technology manager for methane
hydrates within the DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory.46 Of course methane hydrate
exploration is still in its early stages and it will probably take years before natural gas from methane
hydrates could become available for commercial production. Even with the development of the technology and
infrastructure, a methane hydrate well could take additional years before it could produce fuel on a regular basis.54 Scientists would
also have to continue to conduct research on the impact of methane hydrate extraction on the climate and the surrounding
environment in order to ensure that it would not have negative consequences.55 Therefore, the US and Japan should not abandon
their other energy options, such as shale gas, for methane hydrate exploration. Instead, the two countries should formalize
a joint program on methane hydrate exploration and integrate it more fully into their existing energy
cooperation mechanisms.
US Japan cooperation is key to methane hydrate commercialization –
Japanese successes and US sequestration technology
Belahmidi 13 -- energy analyst covering North America and Northern Europe
(Claudia, Claudia Belahmidi joined IHS Energy in July 2010 as an energy analyst covering North America
and Northern Europe., Japan’s methane hydrates natural gas extraction – a game changer?, May 23,
2013, http://unconventionalenergy.blogs.ihs.com/2013/05/23/japans-methane-hydrates-natural-gasextraction/, 6/25/14) HL
Japan’s recent success in extracting natural gas from offshore methane hydrate deposits for the first time
has sparked enthusiasm over a significant and so far untapped resource base. The US has been
undertaking its own project to extract gas from methane hydrates on Alaska’s North Slope. The US
Department of Energy (DOE) even went as far as comparing methane hydrates to the current onshore
unconventionals boom in North America. But are we really witnessing another breakthrough in hydrocarbon exploration
or is commercial-scale methane hydrate extraction a mere mirage? An IHS perspective… Japan and Alaska: opportunities Japan’s
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced in March that a consortium including the Japan Oil, Gas and
Metals Corporation (JOGMEC), METI, and the Japan Petroleum Exploration Company (JAPEX) have
successfully extracted underwater methane hydrate gas from the Nankai Trough in the Pacific seabed of the Aichi
prefecture coast, as part of a flow test there. Deposits of methane gas trapped in lattice-like structures of ice, known as ‘flammable
ice’, could provide Japan with “next generation sources of clean energy” according to JOGMEC. Estimates from JOGMEC state that
the Nankai Trough contains 1.1 trillion cm (39tcf) of methane reserves, enough to provide Japan with 11 years of total gas supply. A
separate study from the National Institute of Advanced Science and Technology has estimated that there are roughly 7 tcm of
methane hydrate in the waters surrounding Japan, equal to about 100 years of Japan’s gas supply needs. However, Japan is not the
only place where methane hydrates are being explored for future commercial production potential. In Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay,
US supermajor ConocoPhillips and partners JOGMEC and the US Energy Department (DOE) have seen
the first encouraging results from testing a promising extraction method, called molecular replacement, to
harvest methane from the ice-like lattices underneath Alaska’s permafrost. Molecular replacement works
by injecting CO2 into identified deposits and substituting it for the methane, leaving the structure intact.
ConocoPhillips and partners have tested the process in 2011 and 2012, extracting nearly 1 mmcf of methane. If commercially
scalable, the research could allow companies to tap into resources that the USGS deems to be among the
largest hydrocarbon resources in the world, pegging an estimate at about 85.4 tcf.
Ext – Plan Solves Japanese Dependence
Methane hydrates reduce Japanese oil dependency.
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
If technologies can be developed for the purpose of making methane hydrate a viable source for natural gas, it would
help
many countries meet the growing demand for energy, reduce foreign energy dependence, and move
towards clean energy options. Countries that currently import large amounts of energy supplies like Japan
also have the potential to become more self-sufficient if methane hydrate technology can be developed to
make this energy source commercially viable. While estimates of Asia’s methane hydrate sources are still
being determined, initial median estimates place China’s reserves at 5 trillion cubic meters, India’s at 26
trillion cubic meters, and Japan’s at 6 trillion cubic meters.12 Based on current energy consumption
levels, the methane hydrate reserves in the waters surrounding Japan may be able to supply the nation
with natural gas for about 100 years.13 In addition to the methane hydrate reserves that are currently explored off the
Pacific coast of Aichi Prefecture, other reserves have been found in the Sea of Japan, such as the one off Sado Island in Niigata
Prefecture.14 As the first country to establish a methane hydrate program in 1995,15 Japan recognizes that its energy
outlook could be dramatically altered if its abundant offshore methane hydrate reserves could be unlocked
for commercial use. Today, the nation is heavily dependent on foreign energy sources to meet its
demands. As of January 2012, the nation is only 16 percent energy self-sufficient, with domestic oil reserves of about 44 million
barrels and 738 billion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves.16 The country is the third largest importer of crude oil after the
United States and China, importing most of its supplies from Saudi Arabia, and it is the largest importer of LNG, holding over a third
of the global LNG market in 2011.17
Methane hydrates key to Japanese energy independence after shutting
down their nuclear industry
PM Network ’13 [Flammable Ice May Spark Energy Projects. June, 27, 11. Proquest accessed on June
24, 2014// LJ
Japan is hoping to find the key to energy independence at the bottom of the sea . In March, the Japan Oil,
Gas and Metals National Corporation, a state-run company, announced it had managed to unlock natural-gas
reserves from methane hydrate- sometimes known as "flammable ice"- trapped in ice 1,000 feet (305 meters) below the
Pacific Ocean seabed. The experimental extraction could herald a revolution in energy projects in Japan and
beyond, as the carbon deposits in methane hydrates may be twice as large as all known oil, gas and coal
reserves combined, according to estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey. This development comes at a time
when Japan sorely needs new alternative energy sources. The country is currently the world's biggest
importer of liquefied natural gas, and the 20? Fukushima nuclear plant explosion abruptly halted plans to ramp up
its nuclear energy projects.
Methane hydrates are key to Japanese energy independence – they rely on
imported gas now
Fensom 13 - Senior Client Manager at BWH Communication, [Anthony, The Diplomat,
March 26, 2013 “Japan: On the Cusp of Energy Independence?” http://thediplomat.com/2013/03/japanon-the-cusp-of-energy-independence/] RF
For a nation whose resource insecurity is ingrained into the national psyche, and which imports nearly all
of its energy supplies, a large gas resource within reach and safe from its Asian neighbors could be
nothing short of a game changer. On March 12, the Japanese government announced a research team had
successfully extracted natural gas from offshore methane hydrate, the first known time anyone had achieved this
feat. Previously, Japanese companies and others have tapped methane gas from onshore hydrate reserves. Japan’s government
research team drilled 330 meters into the seafloor at a depth of around 1,000 meters, then decompressing and gasifying the deposits
of methane-rich gas from the Nankai trench seabed off Aichi and Mie prefectures. The area is believed to hold 1.1 trillion cubic
meters of natural gas, equivalent to 11 years’ worth of Japan’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. According to some estimates the
waters surrounding Japan hold 7 trillion cubic meters of methane natural gas, the equivalent of a century of Japan’s consumption at
current levels. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) plans to test-produce such gas as early as 2014 and announce
estimated development costs the following year. In February, the government announced plans to develop methane hydrate
production technology by fiscal year 2018, with a goal of launching commercial production after 2023. According to local media, the
new ocean policy will be approved later this month, promoting not only methane hydrate but also the recovery of rare metals from
the seabed. “Japan could finally have an energy source to call its own,” said Takami Kawamoto, a spokesman
for the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporatio n (JOGMEC), the state-run company leading the trial. In 2008,
JOGMEC successfully demonstrated a six-day period of continuous methane gas production from hydrate reserves held in
permafrost in Canada. However, the ability to extract such gas from beneath the seabed, where most of the
deposits are believed to exist, could mark a major transformation for the resource-poor nation.
Methane hydrates are key to Japan’s economy – it reduces the trade deficit
Fensom 13 - Senior Client Manager at BWH Communication, [Anthony, The Diplomat,
March 26, 2013 “Japan: On the Cusp of Energy Independence?” http://thediplomat.com/2013/03/japanon-the-cusp-of-energy-independence/] RF
"Now we know that extraction is possible…the next step is to see how far Japan can
get costs down to make the
technology economically viable,” Mikio Satoh, a senior researcher in marine geology at the National Institute of Advanced
Industrial Science and Technology, told the New York Times. Because it needs to import almost all the energy it
consumes, making it the largest LNG importer and second largest coal importer in the world , rising energy
costs have caused Japan’s trade deficit to skyrocket and damaged its emission reduction targets . Last year
Japan recorded its highest trade deficit ever and in February of this year a weakening yen combined with high
prices led the value of Japan’s crude imports to jump by 20 percent and natural gas imports to rise 10 percent
year-on-year.
Methane hydrates key to Japanese energy independence – massive reserves
Tabuchi 13 – New York Times Japan writer (Hiroko: March 12, “An Energy Coup for Japan:
‘Flammable Ice’” Accessed June 25 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/business/global/japansays-it-is-first-to-tap-methane-hydrate-deposit.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) RF
TOKYO — Japan said Tuesday that
it had extracted gas from offshore deposits of methane hydrate —
tapping a
promising but still little-understood energy source. The gas, whose extraction from the undersea hydrate reservoir was
thought to be a world first, could provide an alternative source of energy to known oil and gas reserves. That could
be crucial especially for Japan, which is the world’s biggest importer of liquefied natural gas and is engaged in a
public debate about whether to resume the country’s heavy reliance on nuclear power. Experts estimate that the
carbon found in gas hydrates worldwide totals at least twice the amount of carbon in all of the earth’s other
fossil fuels, making it a potential game-changer for energy-poor countries like Japan. Researchers had already
sometimes called “flammable ice” — a breakthrough that officials and experts said could be a step toward
successfully extracted gas from onshore methane hydrate reservoirs, but not from beneath the seabed, where much of the world’s
deposits are thought to lie. The exact properties of undersea hydrates and how they might affect the environment are still poorly
understood, given that methane is a greenhouse gas. Japan has invested hundreds of millions of dollars since the early 2000s to
explore offshore methane hydrate reserves in both the Pacific and the Sea of Japan. That task has become all the more
pressing after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear crisis, which has all but halted Japan’s nuclear energy program and
caused a sharp increase in the country’s fossil fuel imports . Japan’s rising energy bill has weighed heavily on
its economy, helping to push it to a trade deficit and reducing the benefits of the recently weaker yen to Japanese
exporters.
Methane hydrates solve Japanese independence – massive reserves
Tabuchi 13 – New York Times Japan writer (Hiroko: March 12, “An Energy Coup for Japan:
‘Flammable Ice’” Accessed June 25 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/business/global/japansays-it-is-first-to-tap-methane-hydrate-deposit.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) RF
Jogmec estimates that the surrounding area in the Nankai submarine trough holds at least 1.1
trillion cubic meters, or 39
trillion cubic feet, of methane hydrate, enough to meet 11 years’ worth of gas imports to Japan. A separate rough
estimate by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology has put the total amount of methane
hydrate in the waters surrounding Japan at more than 7 trillion cubic meters, or what researchers have long said is
closer to 100 years’ worth of Japan’s natural gas needs.
Methane hydrates key to fuel Japan – recent discoveries prove
Edmonton Journal ‘13 [Japan finds 'ice gas' beneath seabed; Nation seeks replacement for
shuttered nuclear energy, 3/15/13,
http://www.lexisnexis.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/lnacui2api/auth/checkbrowser.do;jsessionid=C39D263
D18C0EE8535AFD29A6C1F7649.MgHXAlEnyyAHeuzKo6U4A?ipcounter=1&cookieState=0&rand=0.90
51108519034639&bhjs=1&bhqs=1, accessed 6/25/14] KC
Japan is closer to unlocking natural gas deposits trapped in ice below the seabed that may prove bigger than the world's known
fossil-fuel reserves. It said this week it has extracted natural "ice gas" from methane hydrates beneath the sea off
its coasts in a technological coup, opening up a super-resource that could meet the country's gas needs for
the next century and radically change the world's energy outlook. The state-owned oil and gas company JOGMEC
said an exploration ship had successfully drilled 350 metres below the seabed into deposits of methane
hydrate, an ice-like solid that stores gas molecules but requires great skill to extract safely. "Methane hydrates available
within Japan's territorial waters may well be able to supply the nation's natural gas needs for a century ,"
said the company.
Ext – Prevents Japan Nuclear Power
Methane hydrates are key to Japan replacing nuclear power
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
LNG imports rose 12 percent after the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, which shut down the
nation’s nuclear power plants.18 After the disaster, the nation’s reliance on natural gas and oil increased and the focus
now is to find a way to replace its lost nuclear capacity, prompting Japan to continue to lead in methane
hydrate research.19
Japan will invest in Methane hydrate to ease reliance on nuclear power
New York Times ’13 – [Hiroki Tabuchi,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/business/global/japan-says-it-is-first-to-tap-methane-hydratedeposit.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, 3/13/13, Energy Coup for Japan; Flammable Ice, accessed 3/12/15]
KC
TOKYO — Japan said Tuesday that it had extracted gas from offshore deposits of methane hydrate —
sometimes called “flammable ice” — a breakthrough that officials and experts said could be a step toward tapping a promising but
still little-understood energy source. The gas, whose extraction from the undersea hydrate reservoir was thought to be a world first,
could provide an alternative source of energy to known oil and gas reserves. That could be crucial especially for
Japan, which is the world’s biggest importer of liquefied natural gas and is engaged in a public debate about
whether to resume the country’s heavy reliance on nuclear power.
Ext – Japan Nuclear Impacts
The Japanese nuclear industry destroys thousands of lives - meltdowns.
Townsville Bulletin ’12 [Townsville Bulletin// 10 Mar 2012// “Refugees are still living in limbo a
year after the Japanese nuclear disaster, reports Harumi Ozawa”//Proquest//Accessed June 29, 2014] LJ
Refugees are still living in limbo a year after the Japanese nuclear disaster, reports Harumi Ozawa A YEAR
after being forced to abandon homes and businesses in the shadow of the Fukushima nuclear plant, tens of
thousands of refugees are still in limbo, unable to return and having to battle for compensation. Some of
those who fled the radiation that spewed from the plant after it was swamped by last March's tsunami could be allowed home over
the next few years. But others may be unable to return for decades. Twelve months on from the disaster, few have
received the compensation payouts they expected from plant operator Tokyo Electric Power, an enormous utility whose
tentacles reach far into Japan's political machine. Refugees say they feel helpless, with one describing the battle for
compensation as akin to "ants trying to tackle an elephant". "We are still alive. We are not dead yet," said a
70-year-old rice farmer, whose now worthless paddies lie 4km from the plant. "Some say we can go home
after 30 or 40 years, but what are we going to live on until then?" The government-backed alternative dispute
resolution centre said that as of late February, 13 cases out of the 1000 filed with it since September had been settled. Nearly two
million people are expected to be in line for some sort of payout from TEPCO, including refugees from the 20-kilometre no-go zone
immediately surrounding the plant. The utility has offered nuclear refugees a provisional payment for "mental
suffering" amounting to Y120,000 (about $1409) a month, but
now requires claimants to re-apply every three months
via a lengthy and sometimes confusing claim form. For the 1.5 million people outside the exclusion zone, TEPCO has
offered a lump sum of Y400,000 (about $4697) for pregnant women and children, plus Y200,000 for those who voluntarily
evacuated, and just Y80,000 for everyone else. The money is intended to cover the period from the disaster until December 31 last
year. The company as yet has nothing in place for any time after that, and wants those accepting the payouts to agree that they will
not try to seek additional compensation for that same period. Lawyer Izutaro Managi said it was unfair for TEPCO to try to close
down cases in this way because the effects of the radiation might not become apparent for years. A TEPCO spokeswoman said the
company was trying to clear the backlog of claims and had increased workers processing paperwork from 3000 to 10,000. "We are
sorry for taking so long but we are trying to make sure no mistake is made. We will continue working," she said. Mia Isogai, 31,
who fled
with her husband and two-year-old son said the family was struggling to make ends meet and without
more compensation faced bankruptcy.
Japanese nuclear accidents hurt the US economy – it affects our electric
stocks
Bary 2001 - Associate editor @ Barron’s [Bary, Andrew.. Barron's. “Some Nuclear Fallout
Reaches U.S. Shores” (Mar 21, 2011) Proquest. Accessed June 29, 2014] LJ
THE JAPANESE NUCLEAR DISASTER HAS DEPRESSED SHARES of U.S. electric-utility stocks as
investors worry about the future of nuclear plants owned by companies including Entergy, Exelon, PG&E
and Edison International. The Dow Jones Utility Average is down 4% in March and has dropped 1% in 2011.
Stocks with nuclear facilities have done worse than the index this month. Utility stocks are worth a look,
because they combine generally secure dividends of about 5%, modest growth prospects and reasonable
price/earnings ratios that average around 12 based on expected 2011 profits. But investors should be
mindful that the Japanese situation has introduced an element of risk: Regulators and politicians will take
a hard look at the aging U.S. nuclear fleet despite the plants' strong operating record since Three Mile Island accident in
1979. The nuke plants supply 20% of the country's power needs, and most of them are more than 30 years old.
Japanese nuclear accidents are as bad a Chernobyl- isotope levels are
astronomical
Pereira 2011 - prof Mechanical Engineering @ UCLA [Pereira, Tony. Founder, president
and CEO of the Institute for Sustainable Engineering//Culture Change//Jun 27, 2011//The Unraveling of
Nuclear Energy//Proquest//Accessed June 30, 2014] LJ
Thirty kilometers offshore Fukushima, current radioisotope readings show levels tens of times higher
than those measured in the Baltic and Black Seas following the Chernobyl accident . TEPCO, the Tokyo Electric
Power Company and Fukushima's owner/operator has confirmed that the core fuel rods at the Unit One reactor had melted before
the arrival of the tidal wave. By damaging the cooling systems at the Fukushima plant, the earthquake that
shook Japan
also initiated the early core meltdown of at least one of its reactors. Once radiation begins to be released in
huge amounts in and around the plant, things become extremely difficult if not entirely impossible to
control, and events run their own course. TEPCO has now confirmed that there are numerous holes in the
containment covering Unit Two, and at least one at Unit One. The global nuclear industry has long argued
that containments are virtually impenetrable. They are not. The domes at Fukushima are of a very similar
design and strength as many in the US [1].
AT: New Safeguards Prevent accidents
Japanese meltdowns will be worse than reported- companies falsify info
Asian News International ‘13[Asian News International// 23 Aug 2013//”Fukushima leak 'much
worse' than stated by Tepco, says nuclear expert”//Accessed June 30, 2014//Proquest] LJ
A nuclear expert has claimed that the current water leaks at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant are
much worse than the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) authorities have stated, as they lacked
accuracy in measuring radiation levels. The BBC quoted Mycle Schneider as claiming that around 400
tonnes of extra contaminated water was being released into the ocean everyday as 1,000 storage tanks had
a capacity of holding only 85 percent of the toxic water used as a coolant for the reactors. Schneider, who has
consulted various organisations and countries on nuclear issues, also revealed that the water was not just leaking from the tanks, but
also the basement and the cracks everywhere at the site. The recent revelation by the Tepco that the Fukushima
nuclear plant was leaking around 300 tonnes of highly radioactive water from a storage tank on the site
has sparked outrage in the country over the deadly health hazards . The Japanese nuclear energy watchdog has,
meanwhile, raised the incident level from scale one to three on the international scale that measures the severity of atomic accidents,
the report added. A former Japanese ambassador to Switzerland has urged the withdrawal of Tokyo's Olympic bid amid safety
concerns. Mitsuhei Murata wrote a letter to the UN secretary general saying that the official radiation
figures published by Tepco could not be trusted. (ANI)
Japan’s nuclear safety is appalling - standards are weak and corners are
cut.
Wallace, 2004 - Freelance journalist [Wallace, Bruce. and multimedia producer, with particular
interest in international, human rights, religion, and arts-and-culture reporting. Los Angeles Times
//”Steam Kills 4 at Japanese Nuclear Plant; The workers are burned to death when a pipe bursts. Officials
say the release was not radioactive and poses no contamination threat.”//10 Aug 2004//Accessed June
29, 2014]
High-pressure steam bursting from a ruptured pipe in a Japanese nuclear reactor burned four workers to
death Monday, sending ripples of alarm through a country that is heavily dependent on nuclear power. Officials said the
steam was not radioactive and posed no threat of contamination to people in the nearby town of Mihama on the Sea of Japan, 40
miles north of Kyoto. But Kansei Electric Power Co., which runs the facility, acknowledged today that it had
failed to conduct safety checks that would have indicated the pipe had corroded far below the minimum
standard thickness. "We conducted visual inspections but never made ultrasonic tests which can measure the thickness,"
company spokesman Haruo Nakano said. The tragedy and the revelations of lax safety inspections are sure to have
psychological fallout in a country where many people are deeply uneasy about the safety of nuclear power, yet which relies on
such facilities to satisfy more than one-third of its voracious energy appetite. Seven other workers were injured in the
accident, two of them seriously, by vapor that may have been as hot as 390 degrees. The blast hit the men as
they prepared for the 28-year-old reactor's annual inspection, due to begin Saturday. Officials said the leak may have started at a
crack or hole in a 19-inch pipe used to circulate steam that drives the generators that produce electricity. The reactor was shut down
pending an investigation, but two others at the plant were still operating. The company's confession of lax inspections
renewed doubts about the commitment to safety in an industry with a history of trying to hide its troubles.
Last year, Tokyo Electric Power confessed to having covered up reports on technical failures at its 17
power plants, including cracks in some of the reactor structures. Nor was this the first sign of trouble at
the Mihama facility, owned by Kansai Electric. In 1991, radioactive water leaked from a ruptured tube in
another of Mihama's three reactors. No one was injured. In 1999, two employees at the Tokaimura
reprocessing plant 80 miles northeast of Tokyo died after a radiation leak caused by their mishandling of
uranium. Local residents were evacuated after that accident, when about 600 people were exposed to low levels of radiation. That
safety record has made many Japanese wary of government plans to expand the nation's nuclear capacity, which, with 52 plants, is
already greater than any country except the United States and France. But industry officials warned against overreacting to
Monday's fatalities. They argue that Japan must increase the proportion of nuclear power to wean itself from an overreliance on oil.
Japan imports more than 80% of its energy, a situation that many economists warn is dangerous given political volatility in the
Middle East and the recent jump in crude oil prices.
Another Fukushima is entirely likely- plants are all right next to fault lines.
Pereira 2011 - prof Mechanical Engineering @ UCLA [Pereira, Tony. Founder, president
and CEO of the Institute for Sustainable Engineering//Culture Change//Jun 27, 2011//The Unraveling of
Nuclear Energy//Proquest//Accessed June 30, 2014] LJ
Virtually all of Japan's 55 reactors sit on or near earthquake faults, and along the coast where, in addition,
they are also vulnerable to tsunamis. After the 3/11 tsunami, Japan shut down 35 of its 54 reactors for safety evaluations. A
2007 earthquake forced seven reactors to shut at Kashiwazaki. Japan has ordered shut at least two more
nuclear reactors at Hamaoka because of their seismic vulnerability. Numerous reactors in the United States sit on
or near major earthquake faults. Two each at Diablo Canyon and San Onofre, California, are within three miles of major fault lines.
So is Indian Point, less than 40 miles from Manhattan, New York. Millions of people live within 50 miles of Diablo Canyon, near San
Franciso, California, San Onofre between San Diego and Los Angeles, California, and Indian Point, just outside of New York. On
January 31, 1986, the Perry reactor, 35 miles east of Cleveland on Lake Erie, was damaged by an earthquake rated between 5.0 and
5.5 on the Richter Scale, about 200,000 times weaker than the one that struck Fukushima, or the ones that could and will eventually
hit the sites in California, New York and elsewhere around the globe.
AT: Japanese Renewables
Renewables make up a Tiny portion of Japan’s energy plan
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 [ Japan Energy: Overview, October 29, 2013,
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ja, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
As part of the revised energy policy plan, Japan is trying to encourage a greater use of renewable energy,
from sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass for power generation. Renewable energy apart
from nuclear and hydroelectricity made up about 2% of Japan's total energy consumption and about 3% or
34 TWh of the country's total electricity generation in 2011 . The Japanese legislature approved generous feed-in tariffs
for renewable sources in July 2012, compelling electric utilities to purchase electricity generated by renewable fuel sources, except
for nuclear, at fixed prices. The costs are shared by government subsidies and the end users. The feed-in tariffs spurred development
of nearly 1.4 GW of renewable energy capacity that was installed between July 2012 and February 2013. Biomass made up the largest
portion (68%) of generation from other renewable sources in 2011. Wind, solar, and tidal power are being actively pursued in the
country and installed capacity from these sources increased in recent years to over 4 GW in 2011, up from 0.8 GW in 2004.
However, these sources continue to account for a relatively small share of generation at this time. Most of
the growth of renewables in the past year has occurred in solar energy as a result of heavy investment for large-scale PV units. METI
is considering 21 additional geothermal projects in addition to the 17 facilities containing 520 MW of capacity that currently exist.
The potential for geothermal power is significant because the country has the third largest reserves in the world.
Renewables are not a viable option for Japan – they are too long term
Vivoda, 2012 - Research Fellow at Griffith Asia Institute [Vlado, , Japan’s Energy Security
Predicament post-Fukushima, Griffith Asia Institute,
http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/46411/78410_1.pdf?sequence=1, Acc.
Jun 26 2014] LS
The realities of energy transitions and the particularities of Japan’s energy system hinder any quick move
away from fossil fuels. Japan has reduced its nuclear power output and this reduction is likely to remain
for the foreseeable future. In January 2012, only 3 out of 54 of Japan’s commercial nuclear reactors have been operating.
Japan will lose its last nuclear- generated power in April at the current rate of shutting down reactors for safety checks (Bloomberg,
2012). Although many of these reactors might restart once the government and regulators reassure the public that operation can
safely recommence, the only viable short to medium term alternative to nuclear power is fossil fuels. There is, in fact,
nothing on the energy horizon in Japan to displace fossil fuels (Smil, 2010). In addition, short of a major
technological breakthrough, which makes renewable energy competitive with other energy sources on a large scale, it will take
decades before renewable energy becomes competitive with fossil fuels in electricity generation and
transportation sectors. A glance at past energy consumption trends (Figure 2) indicates that, with the exception of
hydroelectric power, renewable energy is a newcomer. Other renewable energy sources are negligent as sources of
energy in the current global energy system. The same applies for Japan, where they start from a very small base (see
Figure 1; Figure 3). In Japan, they account for only 1% of both electricity and primary energy supply . While the
share of renewable energy in global terms and Japan’s energy mix will grow, this will happen at a very slow pace
due to relative higher costs and other structural impediments (discussed below) that inhibit a fast uptake of
renewables.
Japan won’t move toward renewables – industry opposition
Vivoda, 2012 - Research Fellow at Griffith Asia Institute [Vlado, , Japan’s Energy Security
Predicament post-Fukushima, Griffith Asia Institute,
http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/46411/78410_1.pdf?sequence=1, Acc.
Jun 26 2014] LS
Traditionally, energy policy has been the purview of METI, which has close ties to the business
community. Among METI’s chief private-sector allies are the ten regional utility monopolies. These utilities monopolize control
over Japan’s major electricity-usage regions and collectively produce more than 85% of Japan’s electricity. Given their regional
monopoly status, these utilities charge much higher electricity prices than those in the US and Europe (Hosoe, 2006). Nuclear
energy generation differs with each of the ten utilities in Japan, but ranges between 21% and 45% (EIA, 2011). Except for Okinawa
Electric Power Company, all of the utilities own and manage nuclear power plants and prefer a marginal role
for renewables (Scalise, 2012). Nuclear power is one of their preferred sources in the energy mix as it is
relatively cheap. Consequently, they are unlikely to simply give in to societal pressure to move away from nuclear power. These
deep-pocketed monopolies and industrial energy users have cultivated salubrious ties with influential
politicians through generous campaign contributions (Duffield and Woodall, 2011). Their size, de facto monopoly
position, control over pricing data, and privately owned assets put them at an advantage to comparable companies in most other
industrial democracies (Scalise, 2012). Lobbyists from large power utilities have in the past opposed more
ambitious renewable energy goals. They have substantial influence at the local and national governmental
levels (Ferguson, 2011). Given the relative cost of nuclear power, any future plan to downsize or eliminate nuclear energy is certain
to face considerable opposition from the utilities.
Conservation crushes Japans economy, studies find
Vivoda, 2012 - Research Fellow at Griffith Asia Institute [Vlado, , Japan’s Energy Security
Predicament post-Fukushima, Griffith Asia Institute,
http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/46411/78410_1.pdf?sequence=1, Acc.
Jun 26 2014] LS
If industries are required to cut electricity demand in summer 2012, some Japanese manufacturers may
relocate their operations overseas, where electricity is in stable supply and cheaper, ushering in higher
unemployment and further squeezing public funds. In fact, some have suggested, “electricity restraint is the
largest issue for the growth of Japan’s economy” (World Nuclear Association, 2011b). In this context, the future of
nuclear energy must be weighted wisely if Japan is to remain an economic power.
Renewables kill Japan economy because they increase electricity prices
Vivoda, 2012 - Research Fellow at Griffith Asia Institute [Vlado, , Japan’s Energy Security
Predicament post-Fukushima, Griffith Asia Institute,
http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/handle/10072/46411/78410_1.pdf?sequence=1, Acc.
Jun 26 2014] LS
Japan’s new national energy plan is also likely to place emphasis on increasing the share of renewable
energy. The long-term commitment to renewable energy will result in severe consequences for the already
struggling economy, with higher electricity prices making Japanese corporations less competitive and
fueling the movement of jobs offshore. Positive news is that Japan’s energy consumption is set against a declining
population, which is expected to decrease by one-third by 2060 (The Guardian, 2012). This will also reduce the growth in energy
demand in Japan. In any case, if any lessons are to be taken from previous energy transitions as witnessed by
economic depression in former major coal-mining regions, the government needs to manage Japan’s energy
transition with extreme caution in order to minimize the socioeconomic dislocation.
AT: Russian Gas will Solve
Russia cannot solve Japanese dependence – territorial disputes block
relations
McCann, 2012 - Senior Advisor at Department of Defense of Australia [Linda, Japan’s
Energy Security Challenges: the world is watching, Australian Defense College, October 2012,
http://www.defence.gov.au/adc/docs/Publications2012/08_SAP%20Linda%20McCann%20%20Japan.pdf, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
A significant factor that has hampered efforts to improve bilateral relations is the unresolved territorial
dispute between Japan and Russia. Both countries claim sovereignty over islands to the north of Japan,
which Japan refer to as the Northern Territories and Russia calls the Kuril Islands. The claims are complex, ensuring that
any resolution will be difficult and protracted. While some commentators believe the lack of Japanese investment in Russia is
at least equally due to Russia’s ‘failure to create viable conditions for foreign investors’69, the bilateral dispute has created
significant tension between the two countries, as recently as November 2010, when then President Medvedev visited one
of the disputed islands. The Japanese prime minister at the time called it ‘an unforgivable outrage’.70
AT: Turn – Methane in the Senkakus
Methane hydrates prevent Japanese pressure to confront China in the
Senkakus
Fensom 13 - Senior Client Manager at BWH Communication, [Anthony, The Diplomat,
March 26, 2013 “Japan: On the Cusp of Energy Independence?” http://thediplomat.com/2013/03/japanon-the-cusp-of-energy-independence/] RF
The dispute
with China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is also driven, at least in part, by the area’s potential
energy reserves, making the new Nankai discovery even more welcome. Historically Japanese policymakers
have felt an acute sense of strategic vulnerability over their overwhelming reliance on foreign sources of energy.
This concern has only grown in the wake of Tokyo shutting down its nuclear reactors.
AT: Senkakus won’t Escalate
A Senkaku conflict would not de-escalate – other methods of negotiation
have been tried
Jade 2014 - JD Candidate at Cornell [Harry, Cornell International Law Journal, A Solution
Acceptable to All? A Legal Analysis of the Senkaku-Diaoyu Island Dispute., Ebsco, Accessed Jun24 2014],
LS
Moreover, in this specific case study, the underlying
emotional attachment both countries have to the SenkakuDiaoyus would likely foreclose the possibility that either one would sell the islands. Additionally, neither
country would likely buy the islands, as it would signal, as perhaps Japan unintentionally did, that
sovereignty was lacking in the first place. Therefore, despite the number of flaws in the customary law on
territorial acquisition, the current political climate suggests that peaceful resolution is likely only attainable through
litigation or arbitration. Conclusion and Suggestions Perhaps what the Senkaku-Diaoyu problem best illustrates is
that this acrimonious dispute is not just a failure at a regional level or a result of a historical fumble in post-World War II geopolitics. Rather, it is also a failure of contemporary international law. The law of territorial title is outmo- ded,
and yet it is an increasingly crucial alternative to war in a world of nuclear weapons . In light of the failure of
existing customary law on territorial acquisition, this Note urges international actors to construct and sign a multilateral treaty on
territorial acquisition. Forming a universal treaty on territorial acquisition would give actors an opportunity to consider how nations
can and should rationally resolve territorial disputes in the modern world. The treaty's authors could also directly address whether
the current customary law is still valid, while also defining issues that are unclear, such as the second element of occupation.
Although it is a modest proposition, it is one that would certainly assist China and Japan in under- standing the true legal
implications of a case in an international forum.
AT: Japan isn’t funding Methane Hydrates
Japan is focusing on methane hydrates now due to energy needs after
Fukashima
India Times 2013 [A news publication, CHINA DISCOVERS MAJOR METHANE HYDRATE
RESERVE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA http://www.thegwpf.org/china-discovers-major-methane-hydratereserve-south-china-sea/]
Japan is the epicenter of methane hydrates today not because it has so much of the resource -- quite the
opposite, most methane hydrates appear to be in gas-rich North America -- but because it needs the resource so badly
and is working faster than any other country to make fire ice a commercial proposition. The United States and
Canada are awash in methane hydrate resources, found both under the seabed such as in the Gulf of Mexico and in sub-Arctic
permafrost. But both countries also have loads of conventional and shale gas, dampening industry enthusiasm for a complicated,
lengthy research process. Although some companies, such as Chevron, work alongside the U.S. government on methane hydrate
research, "there's a little less space in the industry for enabling field experiments and data collection than there was 10 years ago,"
said Ray Boswell, technology manager for methane hydrates at the U.S. Energy Department's National Energy Technology
Laboratory. Not so in Japan. This spring, researchers in Japan reached a technical breakthrough, figuring out
exactly how the gassy bundles of ice release 160 times their volume in methane as they are taken out of
low-temperature, high-pressure environments. That could make commercial extraction, which experts
estimate is at least 10 to 15 years off, an easier proposition. Japan has sought to come up with a new
energy blueprint in the wake of the 2011 nuclear disaster that shuttered the country's nuclear reactors, which led to a
spike in imports of pricey fuel, especially natural gas. Japan's new energy plan, approved in April, puts nuclear energy back on the
table. But Japanese officials concede that nuclear output will likely never reach the 30 percent or so of Japan's electricity output that
it was before the disaster. As a result, the government included methane hydrate development in its top five
priorities for new energy supplies. Japanese officials say they are working on methane hydrates because they need an
alternative to liquefied natural gas (LNG), which costs about three times as much as natural gas in the United States. "It's very easy
to understand the Japanese motivation, and with China, India, and South Korea you have very similar situations," said Tim Collett, a
gas hydrate expert at the U.S. Geological Survey.
Japan will invest in Methane hydrates - Rising energy costs
New York Times ’13 – [Hiroko Tabuchi,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/13/business/global/japan-says-it-is-first-to-tap-methane-hydratedeposit.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, 3/13/13, Energy Coup for Japan; Flammable Ice, accessed 3/12/15]
KC
Japan has invested hundreds of millions of dollars since the early 2000s to explore offshore methane
hydrate reserves in both the Pacific and the Sea of Japan. That task has become all the more pressing after
the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear crisis, which has all but halted Japan’s nuclear energy program and caused a sharp
increase in the country’s fossil fuel imports. Japan’s rising energy bill has weighed heavily on its economy,
helping to push it to a trade deficit and reducing the benefits of the recently weaker yen to Japanese
exporters.
Desalination
Desalination Add-On
Water crises coming now-population booms and warming
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat
to Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
The concept of water scarcity needs to be understood in both global and regional contexts . Hydrologists typically
assess scarcity by looking at the population-water equation (Mukheibir, 2010). From the water stress index, when a country falls
below 1000 m3 of fresh water per person per year, it is considered a water-scarce country; and if it is below 500 m3, the country is
considered to be in absolute water scarcity (Falkenmark, Lundquist, & Widstrand, 1989). It is reported that currently about
1.2 billion people do not have access to safe drinking water and this figure will be 2.7 to 3.5 billion people
by 2025 if effective steps are not taken to mitigate the water scarcity problem (Mukheibir, 2010). The Middle East and some parts
of Africa could suffer water scarcity as they are likely to run out of water (Qadir et al., 2003). Table 1 shows that some countries in
Africa and the Middle East will be in the grip of serious water scarcity within the next fifteen years . The
most visible effect of climate change is the change in availability and patterns of consumption of fresh water because of changes in
temperature, precipitation, productive capacity of the soil, and in the patterns of human settlement (Raleigh & Urdal, 2007).
Increasing climate variability is expected to alter the present hydrological resources and increase pressure on the availability of
water resources in some parts of the world (Mukherbir, 2010). Furthermore, anthropogenically induced climate change could
create a serious imbalance in the supply and demand of water world-wide. It may be noted that water availability
and consumption is contingent upon the geographical and temporal availability of water. Unfortunately, water is in high
demand in regions like South Asia, Southeast Asia and North Africa, places where it is not naturally
abundant (Kanae, 2009). The reason for the high consumption of water in these regions is intensive agricultural
activities, as 70 percent of water in these regions is used for crop production. Figure 1 shows that already water-scarce countries
such as Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan are extensively using renewable water resources for irrigation purposes, which is obviously not
ecologically sustainable (Khan & Hanjra, 2009). Many crop-producing regions are located in semi-arid areas and
the exploitation of water is greatest in these regions. To meet the huge demand for water, sophisticated pumping
technologies are used to extract groundwater, thus making water use unsustainable and beyond the
capacity of the hydrological cycle to recharge. This is why, all over the world, groundwater sources are in decline due to
over-pumping and pollution (Schewartz & Ibaraki, 2011). There are persistent warnings that groundwater, especially
in parts of India, northern China, and Pakistan, is being depleted at a rate higher that its replenishment
(Butler, 2009).
Water scarcity drives war-creates conditions for conflict.
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat
to Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
Water scarcity and conflicts. Does water scarcity produce or promote violence? This question is difficult to answer. There
is an
increasing incidence of conflict and violence in water-scarce areas, but it is not clear whether the violence is a direct
product of water scarcity or whether water scarcity promotes conditions that result in violent conflicts. Water scarcity not only
undermines individuals' health and well-being but also weakens the state's capacity to provide services to
the affected population. Scarcity often has its harshest social impact when these factors interact with other
factors (Homer-Dixon, 1994). Water scarcity becomes more severe when it undermines the societal capacity to
adapt. Because scarcity decreases the state's capacity to create markets and other institutions that promote
adaptation (Homer-Dixon, 1994), it has an impact on societal resilience against various threats. For instance, in
water-scarce regions many peasants try to supplement their falling income by cutting and selling wood,
which contributes to further deforestation (Homer-Dixon, 1994). In such situations, if the state is weak, corrupt,
or inefficient, water scarcity will damage other systems as the state fails to promote the adaptive capacity
of the people by giving them alternative sources of income. Secondly, an unjust distribution of water may weaken the
relationship between the individual and the community by disrupting relationship networks and social support systems. Thirdly,
water scarcity may intensify competition over resources, which places an additional burden on the
available water resources (Homer-Dixon, 1994).
Methane hydrates solve for coming water shortages - desalination tech.
Sangwai 2013 - prof of Chemical Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology
[“Desalination of Seawater Using Gas Hydrates”// Jitendra S. Sangwai1,*, Rachit S. Patel2, Prathyusha Mekala3, Deepjyoti Mech3,
Marc Busch5
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=25&ved=0CK8BEBYwGA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.resear
chgate.net%2Fprofile%2FRachit_Singh_Patel%2Fpublication%2F259266834_DESALINATION_OF_SEAWATER_USING_GAS_
HYDRATE_TECHNOLOGY__CURRENT_STATUS_AND_FUTURE_DIRECTION%2Ffile%2F3deec52aa1c4bed97c.pdf&ei=CiirU6
r7BMa1O_GegbgM&usg=AFQjCNGOxvpxLhNTR5hY84bXS9OaUfOGvQ&sig2=Lnyiu74yBBJ6ZetVOTIdAw //Accessed on June 29,
2014// December 2013] LJ
Abstract: The water forms an integral part of mankind and hence should
require prime attention. Due to industrialization
developing countries is observed. Seawater forms a
huge source of potable water provided the economical desalination technology is in place. The available
desalination technology, though mature, require development to make them more economical. Gas hydrates
may come at help to make the process more economical. Gas hydrates are crystalline solids made of the water (host)
and the gas molecules (guest) such as methane, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, etc., which are held within water cavities
that are composed of hydrogen-bonded water molecules. The gas hydrate as a technology has been
successful for several potential applications in various engineering fields, such as, gas separation, carbon dioxide
sequestration, gas storage and transportation, energy source, refrigeration and not the least, in the desalination of salt
water. The current work focuses on the use of hydrate for desalination of salt water. The desalination process is based on
the phase change of liquid to solid thereby removing the solids from the liquid phase. We present a principle
and increased population, the shortage of water in several
behind the use of hydrate technology for desalination of salt water, the science and engineering aspects of the process and future
directions.
Ext – Water Shortages Now
Water crises coming now-population booms and warming
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat
to Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
The concept of water scarcity needs to be understood in both global and regional contexts . Hydrologists typically
assess scarcity by looking at the population-water equation (Mukheibir, 2010). From the water stress index, when a country falls
below 1000 m3 of fresh water per person per year, it is considered a water-scarce country; and if it is below 500 m3, the country is
considered to be in absolute water scarcity (Falkenmark, Lundquist, & Widstrand, 1989). It is reported that currently about
1.2 billion people do not have access to safe drinking water and this figure will be 2.7 to 3.5 billion people
by 2025 if effective steps are not taken to mitigate the water scarcity problem (Mukheibir, 2010). The Middle East and some parts
of Africa could suffer water scarcity as they are likely to run out of water (Qadir et al., 2003). Table 1 shows that some countries in
Africa and the Middle East will be in the grip of serious water scarcity within the next fifteen years. The
most visible effect of climate change is the change in availability and patterns of consumption of fresh water because of changes in
temperature, precipitation, productive capacity of the soil, and in the patterns of human settlement (Raleigh & Urdal, 2007).
Increasing climate variability is expected to alter the present hydrological resources and increase pressure on the availability of
water resources in some parts of the world (Mukherbir, 2010). Furthermore, anthropogenically induced climate change could
create a serious imbalance in the supply and demand of water world-wide. It may be noted that water availability
and consumption is contingent upon the geographical and temporal availability of water. Unfortunately, water is in high
demand in regions like South Asia, Southeast Asia and North Africa, places where it is not naturally
abundant (Kanae, 2009). The reason for the high consumption of water in these regions is intensive agricultural
activities, as 70 percent of water in these regions is used for crop production. Figure 1 shows that already water-scarce countries
such as Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan are extensively using renewable water resources for irrigation purposes, which is obviously not
ecologically sustainable (Khan & Hanjra, 2009). Many crop-producing regions are located in semi-arid areas and
the exploitation of water is greatest in these regions. To meet the huge demand for water, sophisticated pumping
technologies are used to extract groundwater, thus making water use unsustainable and beyond the
capacity of the hydrological cycle to recharge. This is why, all over the world, groundwater sources are in decline due to
over-pumping and pollution (Schewartz & Ibaraki, 2011). There are persistent warnings that groundwater, especially
in parts of India, northern China, and Pakistan, is being depleted at a rate higher that its replenishment
(Butler, 2009).
Water conflicts are coming-Population growth and environmental issues
Khalid 2014 - Professor of Political Science @ University of the Punjab [Journal of
Political Studies, Vol. 21, Issue - 1, 259:280 Iram Khalid; Asia Mukhtar & Zanib Ahmed*; Ph.D. Scholar &
M.Phil Student of Department of Political Science, Water Scarcity in South Asia: A Potential Conflict of
Future Decades URL? Accessed on June 27, 2014//LJ
The water crisis of South Asia is owing to its water scarcity . The region is abode to one-quarter population of
world. But the available fresh water resources are not ample to meet the need of such huge population. The
fresh water available for human use is only 0.75% of total water on Earth. The fresh water’s major source is
rivers. The rivers are shared by many states and about 260 major river basins are shared by two or more
states (Committee on Foreign Relations, 2011, p. 9).The South Asian region is under immense pressure owing to
scarce water supply. Rapid increase in population, urbanization, industrialization and lack of water
resources management has posed the region with a daunting situation of water scarcity. According to an
estimate, by 2030, 60% of world population will be left with fresh water supply (John, 2011, p. 1). The region of
South Asia has been declared as water scarce. The population has increased rapidly and now it is
inhabited by about one-third of world population. The region is being drained by four major rivers and
has four basins i-e, Brahmaputra, Indus, Ganges and Meghna (Khalid, 2012, p. 80). These major rivers have various
tributaries which drain whole South Asian region. The issue of water is primarily caused by decreasing fresh water
availability and trans-boundary water flows. Indian population will increase to 1.6 billion by 2050 putting
immense pressure on water resources. By 2005, per capita water availability has reduced to 1731 cubic
meters. In Bangladesh, the per capita water availability was 8444 cubic meters which is expected to reduce to 7670 cubic meters by
2025. Thus, the root of problem lies in being lower riparian state. The 90% water flow to Bangladesh is out of its boundaries (John,
2011, p. 3). The propensity of conflict of water in South Asia is due to shared waters, trans-boundary flows of
waters and
the control of flows of waters of one state by another state. All states of South Asia are facing
water issue. India is the biggest state of the region having water controversies with all its neighbors. It has
concluded water treaties with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. But still the inconvenience due to Indian hegemonic
designs in the region is evident by increasing concerns of all south Asian states on water availability and
sharing. This region is witnessing rapid increase in population, industrialization and urbanization . These all
factors have challenged the security of South Asia and issue of water has assumed a prominent position in politics. This
study aims at scrutinizing the water issue in South Asia. The various reasons are explored in to get an inside in to the problem
which may trigger serious conflict. This research revolves around certain aspects of the issue which have deep rooted relation
with the issue and having propensity to escalate the crisis in to conflict .The questions around which this issue revolves
are :Why is water issue a significant matter in politics? How does water scarcity affect state relations in South Asia? How can water
scarcity be controlled by water governance and integrated water management? Place in literature
Water scarcity is inevitable – climate change and patterns of consumption
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat
to Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
Although there is evidence that climate change could cause water scarcity, one should be careful about
exaggerations and oversimplifications. The problem of water availability may not be exclusively due to global
warming but may also depend on the patterns of change of water withdrawal (consumption), which are
primarily driven by population growth, the expansion of agriculture, and ruthless competition for
economic growth. Historically, resource scarcity or its threat may not always have a destabilizing character or destructive
consequences. Sometimes threats produce opportunities for beneficial change in the distribution of wealth and in processes of
governance (Homer-Dixon, 1994). But this threat can only be translated into opportunity if the true nature of the threat and its
causative mechanisms are understood, and there is the political will to solve the problem. In essence, the problem of water scarcity is
complex and deeply embedded in collective and individual human behavior patterns; and the conservation or wastage of
water depends on the ways in which societies exploit, divide, distribute, and use ecological and
environmental resources. In order to ensure sustainable water consumption and to provide access to
water to marginalized populations in developing countries, there is a need for a radical transformation in society's
approach to the environment, population growth, the expansion of agriculture, and the distribution of rights, opportunities, and
entitlements (Butler, 2009). In summary, water is essential for sustaining life and no segment of society across the globe should be
deprived of its fair share of water.
Ext – Water Impacts - Conflict
Water shortages lead to Asian wars - internal conflict over water.
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarciy: A Threat to
Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
The suffering of poor sections of society may not produce immediate conflict but it definitely increases a sense of relative deprivation
and sharpens social grievances; the development of such feelings may have potential for conflict and, if not redressed, may lead to
violence. In terms of the availability of fresh water, intra-country variations are large. For instance, the northern part of China
is facing severe water shortages while the south still has abundant water reservoirs (Khan & Hanjra, 2008).
Inter-state water rivalry, such as those between India and Pakistan and India and Bangladesh, could be
intensified as water shortages increase. For instance, Pakistan has been regularly accusing India of violating
the Indus Water Treaty by constructing dams on the Indus and Chenab rivers, thus depriving millions of
hectares of land downstream in Pakistan. Despite treaties and accords on water-sharing, there is no clear-cut policy on
how Himalayan water is to be shared and conserved (Ali, 2008; Chandran, 2009). Intense water-sharing issues could be
in the making as trans-boundary water conflicts spread to lower levels across India (Kahn & Hanjora, 2009). In
the face of growing destabilization factors (climate change, population growth, failed states, and financial instability), the
demand, supply, and control of water will increasingly become a volatile and hotly contested issue in
many parts of the world.
Water crises cause war- empirics prove.
Khalid 2014 - Professor of Political Science @ University of the Punjab [Journal of
Political Studies, Vol. 21, Issue - 1, 259:280 Iram Khalid; Asia Mukhtar & Zanib Ahmed*; Ph.D. Scholar &
M.Phil Student of Department of Political Science, Water Scarcity in South Asia: A Potential Conflict of
Future Decades URL? Accessed on June 27, 2014//LJ
Since the times before Christ, the conflicts among states were full of water aggression. Water was either used
as a weapon or target to subdue the enemy. Water reservoirs were attacked or access to them was denied in
order to achieve advantage over the opponent. Twentieth century is full of such Water Scarcity in South Asia conflict
situations. The Arab-Israel war of 1967 was triggered by one of these factors too . The conflict of Israel and Syria
over river Jordan was one immediate factor. Syria has the advantage of being upper riparian state here and the conflict is continued
since creation of Israel in 1948. The river is shared by Israel, Syria and Lebanon. Similarly, the conflict over Nile between
Egypt and Sudan is of violent nature. The fresh water availability to Egypt is 96% by River Nile, if disrupts, Egypt gets into
grave water crisis. The issue though involves whole northern Africa as Nile being international water course yet the
present conflict is being witnessed between Egypt and Nile. Even Egypt threatened to attack Sudan in case of building
dam over it(Gleick, 1993). The report “Avoiding water wars: Water scarcity and Central Asia’s growing importance for stability in
Afghanistan and Pakistan”, prepared by United States Senates’ Committee on Foreign Relations examines water problems in Central
Asia and South Asia. Central Asian Republics and South Asia particularly India and Pakistan share rivers.
Indus River plays a significant role in South Asian politics. Obama administration has perceived the
importance of this critical issue and gave it special importance in its foreign policy . United States now consider
it crucially important to assist South Asia and Central Asia. The effects of climate change are also deep and serious on
water availability. This report discusses in detail the issue of water sharing in South Asia; however, it ignores the hegemonic
designs of India and its water aggression (Committee on Foreign Relations, 2011). The glaciers are the largest source of water
storage in the world. The natural ice body of the world feeds the largest six rivers of Asia including Indus. The ‘climate change’ is
negatively affecting the water flows in these rivers (Savoskol & Smakhtin, 2013).India’s water demands are increasing rapidly. By
22% it will increase in 2025 and by 32% in 2050. Domestic and industrial demand will increase to 85%of total by 2050 in India
(Amarasinghe, Shah, Turral, & Anand, 2007). The management of river basins is a challenging task today. Trans-boundary water
flow demands the integrated effort. ‘Integrated water resources management’ is a solution to this problem if taken seriously
(Lankford, Merrey, Cour, & Hepworth, 2007). In Pakistan agriculture is the major field which contributes about 24% of GDP. The
surface water availability in Punjab reduced 46% from 1996-2001. Addition of salts in water and siltation is the major cause
reducing water channels’ capabilities in Pakistan (Qureshi, Turral, & Masih, 2004). The twenty first century is going to
face severe water scarcity. Water storage is a major problem which, if solved, may help to curb this
deficiency. The four ways can help in this regard; soil profile, underground aquifers, small reservoirs and large reservoirs behind
dams (Keller, Sakhivadiwal, & Seckler, 2000
Water scarcity causes regional conflicts and state failures – scarcity is
increasing due to warming
Patrick 2012 [Not a drop to drink, the global water crisis
http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2012/05/08/not-a-drop-to-drink-the-global-water-crisis/]
The recent UN alert that drought in the Sahel threatens 15 million lives is a harbinger of things to come. In
the next twenty years, global demand for fresh water will vastly outstrip reliable supply in many parts of the world. Thanks to
population growth and agricultural intensification, humanity is drawing more heavily than ever on shared river basins and
underground aquifers. Meanwhile, global warming is projected to exacerbate shortages in already water-
stressed regions, even as it accelerates the rapid melting of glaciers and snow cover upon which a billion
people depend for their ultimate source of water. This sobering message emerges from the first U.S.
Intelligence Community Assessment of Global Water Security. The document predicts that by 2030
humanity's "annual global water requirements" will exceed "current sustainable water supplies" by forty
percent. Absent major policy interventions, water insecurity will generate widespread social and political
instability and could even contribute to state failure in regions important to U.S. national security. (Look
here for a webcast from the Woodrow Wilson Center of experts and U.S. government officials discussing the findings.)
Water shortages threaten regional conflicts – it worsens poverty and state
failure
Patrick 2012 [Not a drop to drink, the global water crisis
http://blogs.cfr.org/patrick/2012/05/08/not-a-drop-to-drink-the-global-water-crisis/]
Significantly, the intelligence community does not predict that increased competition for water resources will, by itself, be a source
of violent conflict--a finding borne out by a rich body of research. And yet the same document warns that water stress may well
"contribute to the risk of instability and state failure," particularly "when combined with poverty, social
tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions." The
accompanying map makes clear that many of the countries likely to be hardest hit are fragile and/or authoritarian states located
within the broad arc of instability encompassing North Africa, the Horn, the Arabian Peninsula, and southwest, central, and south
Asia. In other words, states least able to cope. Regional tensions over shared river basins will also rise. States will
use diplomatic and other leverage to preserve their water interests, and "upstream" states will be tempted
to use water as a diplomatic weapon, including by threatening to impede flow. Nonstate actors, notably terrorists
and other extremists, may also seek to sabotage dams and other infrastructure. Regional stability and peace, therefore,
increasingly depend on effective management of the world's 263 shared international water basins . "Today,
water basin agreements often do not exist or are inadequate." Analyzing the current capacity to manage seven major water basins,
Global Water Security assesses mechanisms to govern the Brahmaputra and Amu Darya to be "inadequate," and those governing the
Tigris-Euphrates, the Nile, and the Mekong as "limited." (The Indus and the Jordan rivers earn a higher, "moderate" score.)
Ext – Water Impacts – Structural
Water scarcity is increasing and is the root cause of poverty, starvation and
disease
Levy and Sidel 2011 - Tufts University School of Medicine and Montefiore Medical
Center [ Barry S,M.D., M.P.H., and Victor W M.D. "Water Stress And Water Scarcity: A Global
Problem/Levy And Sidel Respond." American Journal of Public Health 101, no. 8 (08, 2011): 1348-9;
(accessed June 27, 2014). Accessed June 27, 2014//LJ
Among the factors that contribute to water scarcity is climate change,3 which will likely cause increasing
water scarcity as a result of drought and flooding. The Natural Resources Defense Council predicted in
2010 that by midcentury one of every three US counties will face a greater risk of water shortage as a
result of global warming.4 By substantially limiting greenhouse gas production, wealthier countries could reduce some of the
water scarcity that they cause. We also agree that greater efforts should be made to help countries striving to attain
Millennium Development Goal (MDG) Target 7C: ‘‘Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without
sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation’’ (available at: http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals).
Achievement of this goal is linked to achieving other MDGs, including MDG 1: ‘‘Eradicate extreme poverty and
hunger’’ (because access to water directly impacts poverty and food security ); MDG 3: ‘‘Promote gender
equality and empower women’’ (because access to water affects the social and economic capital of
women); MDG 7: ‘‘Ensure environmental sustainability’’ (because, for example, adequate treatment of wastewater reduces
pressure on freshwater resources); and MDG 8: ‘‘Develop a global partnership for development’’ (because reducing water scarcity
requires international cooperation).5---7 The United States and other wealthy countries have the power and obligation to help
poorer countries achieve these goals and to prevent water conflicts before they boil over.
Water scarcity leads to disease- people turn to unclean water.
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat
to Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
A recent study in India has shown that domestic
water scarcity is strongly associated with various kinds of health
damage caused by infectious diseases (Motoshita, Itsubo, & Inaba 2011). Unclean water may cause water-borne
diseases (bacterial, feco-oral contamination), water-based diseases (toxic material), water-related vectors, and waterscarce diseases (Vidyasagar, 2007). In many parts of the world, water scarcity results in inadequate access to
safe drinking water and this can lead to the spread of infectious diseases via fecal contamination of
drinking water (water-borne diseases), such as typhoid and salmonellosis (Motoshita et al., 2011; Howard & Bartram, 2003, p.
67). The poor quality of drinking water coupled with a lack of basic sanitation is an important factor in the spread
of diarrhea, which is the second most common contributor to the disease burden in developing countries
(Mor & Griffiths, 2011). In many countries, water scarcity compels the local population to use wastewater for irrigation purposes, but
this serves to disperse microbes into the environment. Since untreated wastewater contains human and animal feces and other
dangerous chemicals, the crops produced using this water may be contaminated with various pathogens and
dangerous substances (Ensink & Hoek, 2009). Understandably, unwashed and uncooked agricultural products (e.g. vegetables,
fruit, etc.) produced using wastewater could cause various ailments and infections (Ensink & Hoek, 2009; Hunter, MacDonald, &
Carter, 2010). Additionally, through the use of untreated wastewater for agricultural purposes, fecal
pathogens enter surface water (e.g. lakes and rivers) and groundwater (accessed through wells and bore-holes) and
may be ingested by unsuspecting hosts when they drink the contaminated water or eat food that is either
washed with contaminated water or directly contaminated by feces, especially when untreated sewage is used as a
fertilizer (Mor & Griffiths, 2011).
Water shortages violate human rights – they cause the poor to feel
powerless
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat
to Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
Water is a precious commodity and is essential to sustain life. Like air, "safe, clean drinking water and
sanitation are integral to the realization of all human rights" (United Nations General Assembly, 2010, p.1). But,
unfortunately, water is seldom considered a public good or a basic human right in many parts of the
world. All over the world, especially in developing countries, industrial projects and excessive use of
chemicals and fertilizers pollute and contaminate water reservoirs (Clark & York, 2005). This destruction is not
abstract, theoretical, or hypothetical, but real and observable at a common-sense level. People observe this destruction and
understand its consequential existential threats, even though they may not be powerful enough to stop
this process. This is the point where affected people realize their powerlessness and voicelessness.
Water scarcity causes starvation – it destroys agriculture
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat
to Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
Agriculture consumes more water than any other human activity. Although the total amount of water available in
this world is enough to complete the hydrological cycle, most of it is concentrated in specific regions, leaving other areas waterdeficient (Qadir et al., 2003). In most developing countries, which are already water deficient, population
growth is high and as a result agriculture is under pressure to produce more food. Hence, in these
countries, the consumption of good-quality irrigation water will further increase municipal-industrialagricultural competition (Qadir et al., 2003). Usually, in a situation of competition, socially and economically powerful sectors
of society are successful in capturing (through buying or bullying) major sources of water, thus depriving the
marginalized population of an adequate quantity of fresh water or forcing them to use water polluted by
industrial activities.
Water scarcity drives patriarchy- forces women to manage the water.
Zakar and Fischer 2012 - Prof. @ University of Punjab and Prof. @ University of
Bielefeld [Muhammad Zakria and Florian Fischer "Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity: A Threat
to Human Health*." South Asian Studies 27, no. 2 (Jul, 2012): 293-312, //proquest//(accessed June 27,
2014).] LJ
There is another dimension to water inequality in terms of its access by gender and social class. Of late, more
international attention is being paid to the intimate relationship of women in developing countries to water
(Seyfried, 2011). At the domestic level, women are the managers and controllers of water and are also
recognized as water collectors in many parts of the world. Nonetheless, women's role in the decisionmaking process of water management is limited, mainly because of discriminatory gender roles (Seyfried, 2011). As in
other domains of life, in patriarchal societies men dominate in the public and policy-making spheres while
women are relegated to private space and are excluded from the decision-making process.
Ext – Methane Hydrates Solve Desalination
Methane hydrate mining makes desalination economical – enormous scale
Sangwai 2013 - prof of Chemical Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology
[“Desalination of Seawater Using Gas Hydrates”// Jitendra S. Sangwai1,*, Rachit S. Patel2, Prathyusha Mekala3, Deepjyoti Mech3,
Marc Busch5
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=25&ved=0CK8BEBYwGA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.resear
chgate.net%2Fprofile%2FRachit_Singh_Patel%2Fpublication%2F259266834_DESALINATION_OF_SEAWATER_USING_GAS_
HYDRATE_TECHNOLOGY__CURRENT_STATUS_AND_FUTURE_DIRECTION%2Ffile%2F3deec52aa1c4bed97c.pdf&ei=CiirU6
r7BMa1O_GegbgM&usg=AFQjCNGOxvpxLhNTR5hY84bXS9OaUfOGvQ&sig2=Lnyiu74yBBJ6ZetVOTIdAw //Accessed on June 29,
2014// December 2013] LJ
Gas hydrates (clathreate) are crystalline ice-like solids made of the water (host) and the gas molecules (guest) such as
methane, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, etc., which are held within water cavities that are composed of hydrogen bonded water
molecules as shown in Figure1 (Sloan 1998). It is observed that 1m3 hydrate, if dissociated, can produce up to
164m3 of gas and 0.8 m3 of pure water at standard temperature and pressure. Looking at the amount of pure
water produced per m3 of hydrate pellet, the process of using hydrate for desalination seems promising.
Gas hydrate typically forms at low temperature, T (typically < 20°C), and high pressure, P (typically > 30 bar), conditions. The
hydrate formation (P, T) conditions required for propane and CO2 hydrate is lower than most of the commonly used guest molecules
to form hydrates. Thus, these hydrate show potential to be used for desalination technologie s. Gas hydrates are
non-stoichiometric compounds and on a mole basis methane gas hydrate consists of 85.69 (± 0.14) % water and 14.31 (± 0.14) %
methane. Due to the presence of such a large amount of water in the hydrates, the physical (i.e., density, refractive index) and
thermal (specific heat) properties are similar to ice with some exceptions. Gas hydrate shows different structures such as, structure I
(sI), structure II (sII) and structure H (sH), depending upon the type of guest molecules. The gas hydrate as a technology
has been successful for several potential applications in various engineering fields, such as, gas separation, carbon dioxide
sequestration, gas storage and transportation, energy source, refrigeration and not the least, in the desalination of salt
water. Hydrate as a technology for desalination was developed way back in the 1940s and gained attention in the 1970s followed by
the development of desalinating process by Sweet Water Development Co. and Koppers and Company (Parker, 1942; Knox et al.,
1961). Some researchers in the early 70s had investigated the kinetics and separation of minerals using hydrate technology; this was
followed by development of pilot scale plant for desalination (Barduhn et al., 1962; Barduhn, 1967; 1968). Concentrated brines such
as seawater which primarily contains NaCl are known to be very good inhibitors for gas hydrate formation. However, the salinity
is zero in hydrate once formed and this can be utilized to separate salts from water . The main obstacle for early
industrialization of hydrate based technology was the separation of hydrate phase out of the concentrated brine liquid phase
resulting in uneconomical operation (Rautenbach and Seide, 1978; Park et al., 2011 ). Recent studies showed that the
hydrate have potential to give economical desalination process with the rate of $0.46–0.52/m3 of saline
water (McCormack and Andersen, 1995). Ngan and Englezos (1996) investigated the recovery of water from effluents and 2.5 wt.%
NaCl solutions using hydrate of propane in a moderately operated vessel in which hydrate nucleation, growth, separation, and
melting occur (Ngan and Englezos, 1996). The average reduction in the salt content of the recovered water from the NaCl solutions
was found to be 31%.
Methane hydrates desalinate water efficiently through heat dissipation
Max ’02- Professor, Pathology & Laboratory Medicine (Michael David. Nov 5, 2002.
Desalination and concomitant carbon dioxide capture yielding liquid carbon dioxide. US 6475460 B1
http://www.google.com/patents/US6830682 Accessed June 27) RF
The inventive methods entail cooling the seawater to
sufficiently low temperatures for hydrate to form at the
bottom of a desalination fractionation column at pressure-depths and temperatures appropriate for the
particular hydrate-forming material being used. A preferred embodiment capitalizes on the property of the hydrate that
the amount of heat given off during formation of the hydrate at depth is essentially equal to the amount of
heat absorbed by the hydrate as it disassociates (melts) back into pure water and a hydrate-forming
material. In particular, as liquid or gas forms hydrate, and as the hydrate crystals rise through the water column (either due to
inherent buoyancy of the hydrate or “assisted” by gas trapped within a hydrate mesh shell) and continue to grow, heat released
during formation of the hydrate will heat the surrounding seawater in the column. As the hydrate rises in
the water column and pressure on it decreases, the hydrate dissociates endothermically —the hydrate
formation is driven primarily by the increased pressure at depth—and absorbs heat from the surrounding water column. Ordinarily,
the heat energy absorbed during dissociation of the hydrate would be essentially the same heat energy released during exothermic
formation of the hydrate such that there would be essentially no net change in the amount of heat energy in the system. According to
the invention, however, heat
energy that is liberated during formation of the hydrate is removed from the
system by removing residual saline water from the water column, which residual saline water has been heated by the heat
energy released during exothermic formation of the hydrate. Because formation of the hydrate is primarily pressure
driven (as opposed to temperature driven), the hydrate becomes unstable under reduced pressures as it
rises through the water column, and it dissociates endothermically . Because some heat energy released during
exothermic crystallization has been removed from the system, the hydrate will absorb heat from other sources as it
melts, thereby creating a cooling bias. The preferred embodiment of the invention capitalizes on this cooling bias by
passing the source water through the dissociation region of the water column, in heat-exchanging relationship therewith, so as to
cool the source or supply water to temperatures sufficiently low for hydrate to form at the base of the installation.
Methane hydrate liberation produces clean water along with methane gase
Max and Pellenbarg 2000 - Professor, Pathology & Laboratory Medicine and
Naval research lab [Michael and Robert Desalination through methane hydrate Patent Number US
5873262 Ahttp://www.google.com/patents/US6158239]
1. A
method for purifying polluted water comprising the steps of (a) feeding methane gas into a lower zone of a
body of polluted water of sufficient temperature and pressure to form methane hydrate which rises after
its formation to a higher zone where it decomposes into methane and purified water, and (b) recovering
the purified water. 2. The method of claim 1 wherein the lower zone is located below the boundary line defined by a phase
diagram which separates regions where methane gas coexists with the polluted water or ice from regions where methane hydrate
coexists with methane gas and the polluted water or ice.
Methane Hydrate increases desalination because it requires less power –
you don’t have to freeze the water
Max and Pellenbarg 2000 - Professor, Pathology & Laboratory Medicine and
Naval research lab [Michael and Robert Desalination through methane hydrate Patent Number US
5873262 Ahttp://www.google.com/patents/US6158239]
Original methods proposed for desalinating seawater involved distillation where seawater is heated to the boiling point and water
vapor is then condensed to form fresh water. Distillation includes the use of sunlight to evaporate water and then collecting the
condensate to form fresh or potable water. Desalination by distillation was followed by the use of reverse osmosis
which involves diffusion of fresh water from seawater through a semipermeable membrane due to the
high pressure applied to the seawater feed tank. Desalination by reverse osmosis is considered more expensive than
desalination by distillation primarily due to the cost of the semipermeable membranes and the high pressure pumps required.
Presently, desalination of seawater is effected by freezing. In indirect freezing, freezing is accomplished by circulating
a cold refrigerant through a heat exchanger to remove heat from the seawater. Ice is formed on the heat exchanger surface and is
removed, washed and melted to produce fresh water. In the category of freeze desalination by direct freezing, where desalination is
carried out by the vacuum freezing vapor compression process, heat is removed from seawater by direct contact with a refrigerant.
In a secondary refrigerant mode of this process, a refrigerant that has low solubility in water is compressed, cooled to a temperature
close to the freezing temperature of salt water and mixed with seawater. As the refrigerant evaporates, heat is absorbed
from the mixture and water freezes into ice. Various alternative proposals for freezing desalination are described in paper
entitled "Desalination by Freezing" by Herbert Wiegandt, School of Chemical Engineering, Cornell University, March 1990. In gas
hydrate or clathrate freeze desalination, a gas hydrate spontaneously is formed of an aggregation of water
molecules around a hydrocarbon at temperatures higher than the freezing temperature of water. When
gas hydrate is melted, fresh water and the hydrocarbon are recovered, thus simultaneously, producing
fresh water and the hydrocarbon which can be recirculated. This has the advantage over other direct
freezing processes in that the operating temperature is higher, thus reducing power requirements when
forming and when melting the gas hydrates.
Methane hydrates can desalinate water efficiently – Korea proves
Hyon-hee ’11 [ October). “South Korea develops cheaper gas hydrate desalination technology”. Pace,
proquest //Accessed June 27, 2014] LJ
South Korea is developing new desalination technology using natural gas hydrate which entails removing
gas from methane hydrate, a crystalline compound consisting of gas molecules surrounded by a cage of water molecules.
Hydrate commonly forms during offshore gas drilling when water is condensed in the
presence of methane at a high
pressure and low temperature .Test results showed that the Korean technology lowers salinity by 80
percent, far more than a U.S. team's 60 per cent. Read the full report at The Korea Herald. Image courtesy KITECH.
Methane hydrate mining desalinates water - disassociates electrolytes like
salt.
Max and Pellenbarg 1997 - Professor, Pathology & Laboratory Medicine and Naval
research lab [Max, M. D. and R. E. Pellenbarg. Desalination through Methane Hydrate, What is the
Magazine/Journal title and full date? proquest (accessed June 27, 2014)] LJ
This process can be used to separate water from heavier or lighter pollutants relative to water. In the case of heavier
pollutants, such as brine or salt, described as desalination , water collects at top of a column above brine since water is
lighter than brine. In the case of separating water from lighter pollutants, such as oil, such pollutants collect above water and are
selectively removed at a point above water. The desalination process of this invention is now described by reference to the diagram
of the apparatus shown in FIG. 1(a). Column 20 is closed at top 22, open at bottom 34 and is defined by wall 26 on the outer
periphery. Column 20 is typically a pipe that is closed at the top and open at the bottom. The column is typically positioned
vertically in a
body of seawater deep enough so that the seawater at the lower portion of the column is
sufficiently cold and under sufficient pressure to form methane hydrates. Although it is possible to artificially
control temperature and pressure, however, sufficient temperature and pressure typically prevail in a normal ocean profile to
naturally form methane hydrates at ocean depths. FIG. 2 is a phase diagram which defines coexistence of methane gas,
ice,
water and methane hydrates. FIG. 2 indicates region one of methane gas and ice separated from region two
of methane gas and seawater by a vertical ice-seawater phase boundary 100. Region three of methane hydrate,
ice and methane gas is separated from region four of methane hydrate seawater and methane gas by a vertical
ice-seawater phase boundary 100. Regions one and two are separated from regions three and four by the hydrate-methane gas phase
boundary 200 which extends from about 100-meter depth to a depth of about 10,000 meters and below. It should be understood
that methane hydrate can exist and can be formed at depths exceeding 10,000 meters. The phase diagram of FIG. 2 indicates that
methane hydrate can remain stable at depths in the ocean exceeding about 100 meters and at temperatures below about 30° C.
Methane hydrate mining results in clean water
Max and Pellenbarg 1997 - Professor, Pathology & Laboratory Medicine and Naval
research lab [Max, M. D. and R. E. Pellenbarg. Desalination through Methane Hydrate, What is the
Magazine/Journal title and full date? proquest (accessed June 27, 2014)] LJ
Methane hydrates and the bubbles are formed in the lower section 32 of column 20, which section 32 is also referred to
herein as hydrate stability zone. A plurality of methane hydrates form on the periphery of the bubbles, and as the
bubbles rise in the column due to their buoyancy, so do methane hydrates. Solid methane hydrate, like
water ice, is naturally buoyant. Because the unhydrated gas, or the gas in the bubbles, expands with ascent, it will
break the bubble shell and a new bubble shell or methane hydrate will form. This process of natural
rupture and continued crystallization converts virtually all methane in the bubbles to methane hydrate.
Lower section 32 of column 20 is disposed above inlet point 30 for methane but below the phase boundary 36 so that formation of
methane hydrates is facilitated. As the methane hydrates form, heat of fusion is given off and the heat is absorbed by
surroundings giving the surrounding medium a tendency to rise. However, the insignificant
amount of heat given off and
the size of the column relative to the body of water that it is in make the impact of the tendency negligible. The
lower end of the column in the hydrate stability zone may incorporate various fins to facilitate heat exchange to the cold
seawater surrounding the column. The methane hydrates are formed in section 32 of column 20 and may attach themselves
to the bubbles which are also formed in section 32. Section 32 can be many meters long and diameter of column 20 must be large
enough for the bubbles and methane hydrate to rise unobstructed by ice. Also, section 32 must be below the hydrate-gas phase
boundary line 200 so that temperature and pressure of the seawater in section 32 is conducive to formation of methane hydrates.
Seawater in section 32 is characterized by natural low temperature and high pressure. Section 32 also has the effect of natural
fractionation which is in evidence wherever heat transfer takes place. As methane hydrates and bubbles
containing methane are formed in section 32 and heat of fusion is given off, natural fractionation on a
small scale takes place whereby the heavier brine, formed when water is stripped from seawater, sinks after cooling
through the bottom open end 34 of column 20 to mix with the body of seawater outside of the column. If desired, brine can
be withdrawn from column 20 through line 35 located at the lower portion of the column above the open end 34.
Methane hydrates desalinate water
Yarett ’10 - assistant editor at Newsweek [ (2010, May 12). Trouble at the bottom of the ocean.
Newsweek Web Exclusives, Yarett, Ian. Proquest //Accessed June 28, 2014] LJ
Early research on how to avoid hydrate buildup eventually led to the discovery of naturally occurring methane
hydrates in the
pretty much everywhere temperature and pressure conditions permit--in the seafloor sediments of all oceans deeper than about 2,000 feet and in permafrost. The majority of the world's methane is
stored in hydrate form rather than gas form. These hydrates may have a number of practical applications . Gas
hydrates might be an energy resource, and scientists are studying ways to safely extract them from the earth for
their methane content. Hydrates have also been produced in the lab to use for purification purposes--like
water desalinization--since the compounds take up pure water and leave behind impurities. Hydrates might
'70s, which are found
also be used to ship methane--the idea would be to produce hydrates from natural gas and then ship them in that solid form for
greater safety and efficiency.
Hydrate mining desalinates water – it forces out salt when it freezes.
Xu ’13 – phd candidate at Colorado School of Mimes [Hongfei. Hydrate desalination using
cyclopentane hydrates”. Dissertations and Theses, Proquest, Access Date ? LS]
It was reported that the concept of desalination via hydrate formation was first suggested as early as 1942 ,
using R-23 as the hydrate former (Garrison, 1968). The first published paper on hydrate desalination was by Donath in 1959
(Donath, 1959), who introduced the hydrate desalination work done by Koppers Company (Garrison, 1968). Following this work,
Knox and other researchers launched a series of pilot plant studies for hydrate desalination. They analyzed
the whole process and operation units of desalination, which included a filtration separation and washing tower. Moreover, some
mechanical inventions were proposed and tested, such as agitation blades which were used for pulverize the
hydrate cakes to promote better washing of hydrate. An economic analysis was performed in these studies, which shows
that the production cost is 3 dollars per 1000 gallons of fresh water (Garrison, 1968). The principle of hydrate desalination is shown
in Figure 1.6. The hydrate cavities are very selective. Only certain molecules with appropriate diameters such
as methane, ethane and cyclopentane can enter the cavities, leaving the ionic compounds such as sodium chloride in the
bulk phase. In other words, no salt exist in hydrate structures. Fresh water can be obtained through melting the
separated hydrates from the bulk liquid phase. The hydrate desalination method can also be used in water
treatment. For example, Tsouris et al. suggested a process to deal with the oilfield produced water As large
hydrocarbon molecules (size>7.5 A) (Sloan & Koh, 2008) cannot enter hydrate structures, waste water can be treated
using the same concept as hydrate desalination.
Methane hydrates can desalinate water – more research is needed
Pellenbarg and Max ’14- , At Naval Research Laboratory and MDS Research [Gas
Hydrates: From Laboratory Curiosity to Potential Global Powerhouse, 5/26/14,
file:///C:/Users/k/Documents/MNDI%202014/Gas%20Hydrates%20From%20Laboratory%20Curiosity.
pdf, accessed 6/25/14, Proquest, KC]
The geopolitical implications of energy independence for Japan or India and for their relations with the rest of the world are
staggering. Both energy security concerns and the prospect of abundant new energy resources are driving the current interest in
methane hydrate. Petroleum fuel currently dominates and underpins global economic activity. Petroleum, however, is a finite
resource. Further, there are clear political problems associated with the distribution of petroleum resources on the planet. Because
of the world abundance of methane and the natural limitations to petroleum, a methane-based economy
will inevitably supplant the current petroleum-based economy. The only question is when and where will it develop
first. Methane as a fuel offers clear advantages over oil or coal: immense resource potential, ease of transport via in-place
distribution infrastructure, less carbon dioxide release per unit volume burned, no release of sulfur or nitrogen oxides, and so forth.
Further, methane hydrate serves as an analog for other gas hydrate species. Carbon dioxide hydrate is increasingly examined as a
potential storage medium for carbon dioxide produced by combustion of fossil fuels in general. Studies are examining the
feasibility of using liquid carbon dioxide or the corresponding hydrate to sequester carbon dioxide
captured from fossil fuel combustion. U.S. Navy scientists have defined the concept of using methane
hydrate as the basis of a new technology to desalinate seawater (U.S. Patent 5,873,262 issued 27 Feb 1999). Clearly,
the future of methane hydrate research and development is full of promise. Only within the past 20 years has the
scientific community come to realize that there is in fact enough methane on the planet to underpin a gas-
based economy. Immense reservoirs of methane occur as gas hydrate, newly recognized deposits of which are much more
uniformly scattered around the globe. The Middle East has no monopoly on gas hydrate deposits as it does for petroleum supplies.
Hydrate deposits potentially large enough to allow for energy independence occur in the EEZs of at least two major industrial
nations, the USA and Japan, and are likely to occur adjacent to most coastal oceanic states. There is clear consensus that there is a
lot of methane as hydrate in the sediments of the world ocean.
Methane hydrate mining results in desalination – freezing forces out salt.
Hiroshi 2009 – graduate at Chemical Engineering, Graduate School of
Engineering Science, Osaka University [International Journal of Chemical Engineering.
Hiroshi Sato,1 Takanori Tsuji,1 Tetsunari Nakamura,1 Koichi Uesugi,1 Takahiro Kinoshita,1 Masahiro
Takahashi,2 Hiroko Mimachi,2 Toru Iwasaki,2 and Kazunari Ohgaki1 August 2009//”Preservation of
Methane Hydrates Prepared from Dilute Electrolyte Solutions”//Proquest//Accessed June 16, 2014//LJ
Methane hydrate was prepared in a high-pressure cell with internal mixing baffles that moved vertically across the gasliquid interface. The cell was essentially the same to that reported previously [12]. The walls of the cell were equipped with a
circulating water jacket to maintain the cell temperature at 280 K. Pure water or aqueous electrolyte solution was introduced into
the cell, which was then pressurized with methane. Mixing was started, and the pressure gradually decreased as
methane hydrate formed. The pressure was maintained in the range 5.8-6.2 MPa by intermittently supplying methane. The
hydrate crystals were formed at the gas-liquid interface and on the cell wall. The crystals interfered with
the mixing motion and the motion finally stopped. The consumption of methane greatly slowed on this
occasion. When the consumption of methane had almost ceased, the residual liquid in the cell was discharged
through a tap at the bottom of the cell. The cell pressure decreased to around 5.8 MPa and hence methane was supplied to
the cell. The volume of the discharged water was about one sixth of the supplied water and the electrolyte
concentration of the discharged water was 120-140% of the supplied water. The electrolytes were primarily excluded from
the hydrate crystals and the remaining electrolytes located probably on the surface and grain boundary of
the final hydrate product [13]. The remaining contents of the cell were kept at the same pressure and temperature for a further
2-3 days before the cell was further cooled to 253 K for 1 day and then depressurized to atmospheric pressure. The methane hydrate
that was produced by this procedure was partly granular and partly compact. No differences were found by visual observation
between hydrates prepared from pure water and those prepared from dilute electrolytes, as well as the amount and rate of methane
consumption recorded during the sample preparation.
Methane hydrates solve desalination – melting them creates fresh water
U.S. Navy 2002 [Firey ice from the sea http://www.onr.navy.mil/Media-Center/PressReleases/2002/Fiery-Ice-From-the-Sea.aspx]
"And there's another bonus in all this," says Rick Coffin, of the Naval Research Lab. " When methane, which
is a gas,
combines with seawater to make methane hydrate, it rejects the salt in the water. Therefore, fresh water is
produced when the concentrated hydrates are melted. It's a desalination process where the methane can
be recycled to continue the process. For areas thirsty for water, this could be a real windfall. Perhaps I
should have said 'waterfall.'"
Ext – Desalination Key to Solve Water
Cheap desalination is key to solve water shortages - freshwater is running
out.
Sangwai 2013 - prof of Chemical Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology
[“Desalination of Seawater Using Gas Hydrates”// Jitendra S. Sangwai1,*, Rachit S. Patel2, Prathyusha Mekala3, Deepjyoti Mech3,
Marc Busch5
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=25&ved=0CK8BEBYwGA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.resear
chgate.net%2Fprofile%2FRachit_Singh_Patel%2Fpublication%2F259266834_DESALINATION_OF_SEAWATER_USING_GAS_
HYDRATE_TECHNOLOGY__CURRENT_STATUS_AND_FUTURE_DIRECTION%2Ffile%2F3deec52aa1c4bed97c.pdf&ei=CiirU6
r7BMa1O_GegbgM&usg=AFQjCNGOxvpxLhNTR5hY84bXS9OaUfOGvQ&sig2=Lnyiu74yBBJ6ZetVOTIdAw //Accessed on June 29,
2014// December 2013] LJ
World population has increased drastically resulting in more demands for potable water. Past few decades
saw the ground water level depleted drastically and available fresh water deposits accounting less than 0.5 % of
the earth’s total water supply, forcing us to find alternative water reserves. The oceans represent the earth’s major
water reservoir. Seawater shows potential alternative for a source of potable water provided suitable water
purification technologies can be incorporated economically to make them feasible.
Desalination key to solving water shortages – new technology is key to
reducing costs
Yale 2011 [Better desalination technology key to solve water shortage
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110804141752.htm]
Over one-third of the world's population already lives in areas struggling to keep up with the demand for
fresh water. By 2025, that number will nearly double. Some countries have met the challenge by tapping
into natural sources of fresh water, but as many examples -- such as the much-depleted Jordan River -have demonstrated, many of these practices are far from sustainable. A new Yale University study argues
that seawater desalination should play an important role in helping combat worldwide fresh water
shortages -- once conservation, reuse and other methods have been exhausted -- and provides insight into how
desalination technology can be made more affordable and energy efficient. "The globe's oceans are a
virtually inexhaustible source of water, but the process of removing its salt is expensive and energy
intensive," said Menachem Elimelech, a professor of chemical and environmental engineering at Yale and
lead author of the study, which appears in the Aug. 5 issue of the journal Science.
AT: Desalination Tech Now
Methane Hydrate desalination is more efficient than current technology
Sangwai 2013 - prof of Chemical Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology
[“Desalination of Seawater Using Gas Hydrates”// Jitendra S. Sangwai1,*, Rachit S. Patel2, Prathyusha Mekala3, Deepjyoti Mech3,
Marc Busch5
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=25&ved=0CK8BEBYwGA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.resear
chgate.net%2Fprofile%2FRachit_Singh_Patel%2Fpublication%2F259266834_DESALINATION_OF_SEAWATER_USING_GAS_
HYDRATE_TECHNOLOGY__CURRENT_STATUS_AND_FUTURE_DIRECTION%2Ffile%2F3deec52aa1c4bed97c.pdf&ei=CiirU6
r7BMa1O_GegbgM&usg=AFQjCNGOxvpxLhNTR5hY84bXS9OaUfOGvQ&sig2=Lnyiu74yBBJ6ZetVOTIdAw //Accessed on June 29,
2014// December 2013] LJ
Figure 4 shows the energy consumption (kJ/kg) with respect to salt content in water. It is observed that clathrate hydrate for
desalination are more economical than the two conventional methods. By comparing these three cases
though the capital investment for hydrate is more, the operating cost is less. The operating cost of hydrate
technology can be further reduced by using suitable nontoxic promoters. The overall total cost using hydrate technology
is competitive with respect to other conventional technologies. The hydrate technology is expected to gain
importance for desalination process in near future leading to a further decrease in the capital investment
for this process over a period of time. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE DIRECTION Seawater desalination by different major
technologies is discussed in this work. After seeing the economic aspect of desalination plant based on hydrate technology, it can be
concluded that desalination by hydrate route looks a promising alternative compared to the conventional
technologies such as reverse osmosis (RO) and multi stage flash (MSF) distillation. As low temperature requirement is an
important factor in gas hydrate formation process, implementation of gas hydrate desalination technology in the
colder region would also enhance the economy of process by saving the energy cost for chilling the sea
water. In future, the hydrate process can be made more economical by using some cheap and easily
available hydrate formation promoter, research in this direction is an ongoing process.
Current desalination increases warming by increasing energy consumption
Food and water watch 2009 [Desalination, an ocean of problems
http://documents.foodandwaterwatch.org/doc/Desal-Feb2009.pdf]
Because it is so expensive, the companies that present de- salination as a solution are seeking federal and state subsi- dies for their
projects. For example, the New Water Supply Coalition, formerly the U.S. Desalination Coalition, is an association of private
companies and public utilities that lobbies the federal government for subsidies for desalina- tion projects in the form of tax credits,
as part of “Clean Renewable Water Supply” legislation.37 Meanwhile, on a local level, the same types of companies market their
plants to state and local governments as an essential, and now cheaper, new water supply option. Every step of reverse
osmosis, from the water intake to the high-pressure pumps, transport and waste disposal systems,
requires large amounts of energy. In addition, the saltier the source water, the more energy required to remove the salt.
Seawater is the most concentrated source water solution there is, which means that ocean desalina- tion is the most energy intensive
desalination process. Based on cost estimates from the National Research Council report,42 seawater desalination in California
takes nine times as much energy as surface water treatment and 14 times as much energy as groundwater produc- tion.* Meanwhile,
very few desalination plants use renew- able energy sources. Surfrider Foundation and San Diego Coastkeeper estimated that a 53
million gallon-per-day de- salination plant would cause nearly double the emissions of treating and
reusing the same amount of water.43 Ironically, these emissions contribute to global climate change,
which will only quicken the droughts and water shortages that de- salination is supposed to help us avoid.
Current desalination fails – it is too expensive because it doesn’t remove
enough salt
Pollution Solutions 2013[Burning ice could make fracking wastewater drinkable
http://www.pollutionsolutions-online.com/news/waterwastewater/17/breaking_news/burning_ice_could_make_fracking_wastewater_drinkable/26651/
Salty wastewater is a byproduct of fracking for natural gas and extracting oil. Both processes use large amounts of
water to yield very small results - for every one barrel of oil, around ten barrels of wastewater are created. In order to be
suitable to release into the environment, this water must undergo several types of chemical purification,
which is expensive and time consuming. After this, the water is still not suitable for human consumption.
AT: Methane Poisons People
The water produced by methane hydrate desalination is safe to drink
Max and Pellenbarg 2000 - Professor, Pathology & Laboratory Medicine and
Naval research lab [Michael and Robert Desalination through methane hydrate Patent Number US
5873262 Ahttp://www.google.com/patents/US6158239]
One of the products produced by the process described herein is fresh, potable water suitable for
drinking by humans. Solubility of methane in fresh water is at a ppm level which is not harmful
to humans. Presence of methane molecules in water can be detected at ppm level. This is one way that the product fresh water
can be tagged with this process since it is effective with clathrates wherein the hydrate contains other molecules than methane,
assuming at least some solubility of the other molecules in the water. While presently preferred embodiments have been shown of
the invention disclosed herein, persons skilled in this art will readily appreciate that various additional changes and modifications
can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention as defined and differentiated by the following claims.
Ocean Methane Hydrates solve desalination – clean water is a byproduct
Pollution Solutions 2013 [Burning ice could make fracking wastewater drinkable
http://www.pollutionsolutions-online.com/news/waterwastewater/17/breaking_news/burning_ice_could_make_fracking_wastewater_drinkable/26651/
A study, published in the journal 'ACS Sustainable Chemistry and Engineering', reveals that the use of a 'burning ice' can
remove up to 90 per cent of the salt from the wastewater, making it safe to drink. This discovery could
help people that live in areas with restricted access to clean drinking water. The new process was developed
following on from a technique that has shown promise in this field, gas hydrate desalination. Gas hydrates are formed of a single gas,
like methane, and water. Forming the hydrate means that all impurities, such as salt, are left behind as a byproduct. As the
hydrate is broken down, the gas is released and pure water is left behind. In order to create the hydrate in the first
place, the water must be incredibly cold. The water needs to be chilled to around 28 degrees Fahrenheit, which is an incredibly costly
process. In order to create a cheaper process the researchers looked into using methane hydrates, which are
ice chunks that are collected from miles below sea. This ice bursts into flames once it reaches the surface of the water.
Researching this 'ice that burns' led to the creation of hydrates formed from carbon dioxide and water, with
the gases cyclohexane and cyclopentane. This new hydrate proved to be a much more effective and low energy technique. Instead of
removing only 70 per cent of the salt from the wastewater, as the original gas hydrate process does, up to 90 per cent of the
salt was removed. The process is also achievable at near-room temperature, reducing cost by not needing
as much chilling.
AT: Water Wars don’t Escalate
Water conflicts escalate - international interests.
Thomson 2001 - masters in Oceanography at Utah State [Benjamin A. "Mapping Absolute
Fresh Water Scarcity and the Potential for Acute Political Conflict in Africa." Order No. 1405379,
Proquest//(accessed June 27, 2014).]LJ
It seems odd that on a planet primarily covered with water, we need
to be concerned about water scarcity— but we do.
resources, there are no water
substitutes; most liquids commonly used in place of water, are primarily made of water. One may even say that life is made
primarily of water; all life on the planet absolutely requires a certain amount of water to survive. To understand water as a
Water is so commonplace that we tend to notice it only in its absence. Unlike most
resource, one must realize that water is dynamic; never ceasing, water moves. Traveling from ocean to land and from land to ocean
again in clouds, rivers, and streams, it crosses mountains, plains, forests, deserts, and not to be forgotten, political boundaries.
Rivers are particularly important since the manner in which river water is used in one country can have dramatic
and far-reaching effects on all other countries located downstream. While a large-scale irrigation project,
or the damming of a major river, can bring prosperity and security to a country where water availability is
unreliable, the same project can bring ecological and economic ruin to the countries downstream . The
decision to dam a river upstream could cause economic devastation downstream by restricting access to
the water necessary for agriculture, industry, and human consumption; on the other hand, the decision
not to dam a river could be equally devastating by leaving downstream countries susceptible to floods.
Polluting upstream, affecting the water quality, has almost the same social impacts as limiting the
quantity; both restrict the amount of water that can be productively used. Upstream countries have the
potential for a literal stranglehold on the lifeblood of the entire downstream watershed , which often spans
several countries. Water scarcity is a problem which has the potential to escalate from being a personal
concern to a nationally critical issue, and ultimately, even to a source of international conflict. In 1980,
Egyptian President Anwar Sadat illustrated this potential when he stated, "If Ethiopia takes any action to block our right to the Nile
waters, there will be no alternative for us but to use force" (Myers 1989: 32). This potential tends to be heightened in the
developing world where population growth rates are high, economic growth rates are low, and
institutional controls are weak, each serving to exacerbate the problem. Sociologists, political scientists, and economists have
all studied how and why conflict has arisen over natural resources in the past, but few have sufficient tools to answer where it may
arise in the future. This study will attempt to answer the question of where, focusing on the place where the problem is most
evident— the continent of Africa. Significance/Rationale Due to the dynamic nature and importance of water, the
scarcity of this one resource has the potential to give rise to both internal and international conflict . In
many cases this conflict might be avoided or postponed through the establishment of institutional controls, international
agreements, and ecological research looking towards the management of water resources for the future. But in order for these steps
to be effective they need to
be taken before the issue becomes critical and conflict is imminent. By identifying
the areas that have the greatest potential for conflict , future studies can identify the likelihood of conflict, and the steps
that would be necessary to avoid it. Additionally, by identifying the areas of potential conflict, in the future one could readily
determine where necessary agreements are already in place, and conversely, where they are not. While others studies have examined
the issue of water scarcity in Africa, they have almost invariably been done on a country-by-country basis, gathering the necessary
data at the national level. But as it was stated above— water is dynamic. Data indicating how much water there is in a country, or is
available to that country, tells little about the relationship between upstream and downstream neighbors. Security analysis based on
data delimiting water by political boundaries is inherently flawed; water data must be analyzed within its natural limits,
those defined by the watershed. By examining the watersheds of Africa and determining which have the
greatest potential problems with water scarcity, and then identifying the countries within these
watersheds, a more accurate depiction of a country's susceptibility to water-based stress might be
ascertained.
AT: No Spillover
Methane hydrate purification process can be used elsewhere once
developed – it can remove any pollutant
Max and Pellenbarg 1997 - Professor, Pathology & Laboratory Medicine and Naval
research lab [Max, M. D. and R. E. Pellenbarg. Desalination through Methane Hydrate, What is the
Magazine/Journal title and full date? proquest (accessed June 27, 2014)] LJ
The desalination process has been described in connection with formation of methane hydrates in seawater. It should be understood
that methane hydrates can be formed in any body of water as long as temperature and pressure are such that they define a hydrate
stability zone; i.e., zones 3 and 4 on the phase diagram of FIG. 2. This process can be used in a body of polluted water
to produced purified fresh water since upon decomposition, a methane hydrate releases methane gas and
pure water. So the term "purification" and derivatives thereof includes desalination. Furthermore, the
term "polluted water" includes saline water.
Off Case Resps
AT: Exploration Topicality
We meet: searching for Methane hydrates is exploration – contextual
evidence proves
Pollution Solutions 2013 [Burning ice could make fracking wastewater drinkable
http://www.pollutionsolutions-online.com/news/waterwastewater/17/breaking_news/burning_ice_could_make_fracking_wastewater_drinkable/26651/
Methane hydrates are widely distributed throughout the globe, including locations that do not have substantial conventional
natural gas reserves. Deposits have been discovered off the coasts of Japan, India, South Korea and Chile, in the Gulf of
Mexico and off the southeastern coast of the United States. Potential reserves also exist in the Artic permafrost of Alaska,
Canada and Russia. Their widespread distribution means traditionally resource-poor countries could now have access to domestic
sources of energy. Methane hydrate estimates throughout Asia are still being determined through further
exploration, but initial median estimates place Japan's reserves at 6 trillion cubic meters, China's at 5 trillion cubic meters and
India's at 26 trillion cubic meters. Japan was the first nation to establish a methane hydrate program, which it founded in 1995.
India formed its national program in 1997, and China and South Korea followed suit later. Since 2006, China, India and South Korea
have all led exploratory expeditions that included conducting seismic studies and retrieving core samples to determine the
composition of possible reserves. Japan continues to lead the field, as shown by its recent offshore production testing. Though
technically advanced, Japan lacks many natural resources and so must import the majority of its energy supply. In 2011, it consumed
123 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which 117 billion cubic meters were imported. Developing a domestic source of energy
could restore some of the energy security lost when Japan ceased the majority of its nuclear power production. Japan's imperative to
secure energy supplies combined with its technical capabilities may allow it to push forward despite the high economic cost. While
initial offshore exploration has occurred near the coast, often within a given country's exclusive economic
zone, future exploration will likely continue offshore. This exploration could happen in contentious waters, especially in
East Asia. As technology continues to advance, a new dimension to pre-existing territorial frictions could emerge as nations switch
from competing for potential resources to actual resources. Exploration for this resource is a tool competing nations
could use to claim sovereignty over disputed waters. Whether or not the technical hurdles of extracting
methane hydrates are overcome, short- and medium-term exploration efforts could help countries in their
attempts to establish a presence in international or disputed waters. Japan's lead in the development of methane
hydrate extraction could give it an edge in the competition for future resources in the region.
Accessing methane hydrate reserves is exploration – Japan proves
Greimel 2003—staff writer of the Los Angeles Times(Hans, “Japan to Plumb Depths for
Energy; The resource-poor nation gears up to pull methane hydrate from sea beds, hoping to convert the
frozen fuel to a usable form’’, Los Angeles Times, Proquest, 20 July 2003, Accessed 24 June 2014)DZ
Like an ice that burns, methane hydrate is cold, white and would light up like a gas stove if held to a flame. And so much of the
frozen fuel naturally blankets
the sea beds off Japan and elsewhere that scientists say it could power the
world for centuries. But as soon as researchers plumb the depths and pull the potentially revolutionary energy source to the
surface, the frosty crystallized methane starts to fizz and bubble into oblivion as it warms up, gasifies and dissolves into the ocean.
Most nations don't even bother exploring offshore reserves for lack of harvesting technology . But in
resource-poor Japan, plucking the deep-sea bounty off its shores is more than science fiction -- it is a national
initiative that Tokyo hopes will become reality in 15 years.
Methane hydrate discovery is ocean exploration
Chung-Chieng, 2005 - Climate Studies Team Leader [A. Lai, Dietrich, Bowman, Climate
Studies Team Leader, Technical Staff Member, Earth & Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos
National Lab., Los Alamos, NM, Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate, Topics in
Catalysis, March 1, 2005, Ebsco June 26, 2014]KF
During the last two decades, ocean exploration has revealed an abundant fuel source of methane hydrate
(MH) stored in deep ocean sediments. The majority of methane in ocean sediments has a biogenic origin, as a by-product
of marine biogeochemical processes that includes photosynthesis and oxidation. The rest of the known methane deposits methane
has a thermogenic origin [3].
AT: Development Topicality
Investing in methane hydrate research is Development because it focuses
on exploitation
Pfeifer 14—Energy Editor of the Financial Times (Sylvia, “Methane hydrates could be energy
of the future”, Financial Times, 17 Jan 2014, Proquest, Accessed 24 June 2014)DZ
However, although several governments have investigated methane hydrates since the early 1980s, no
country has been especially focused on developing them. Exploiting them has to make sense from a cost
perspective. There have also been other sources of fossil fuels - notably conventional oil and gas and more recently shale - that
have been easier and cheaper to access. Things changed early last year. In March, Japan became the first country to get
gas flowing successfully from methane hydrate deposits under the Pacific Ocean. The country has a big reason to
pursue methane hydrates. After shutting down most of its nuclear power stations three years ago after the crisis at its Fukushima
nuclear plants, the country has relied on expensive imports of liquefied natural gas from countries such as Qatar. Before the
Fukushima disaster, nuclear provided about 30 per cent of Japan's power generation, compared with LNG at 25 per cent. Since that
time, LNG's share has soared to 45 per cent. The increasing energy imports have helped drive the country's trade balance into deficit.
According to Paul Duerloo, partner and managing director at Boston Consulting Group in Japan, the country tops the list of
those with an incentive to develop their methane hydrate deposits. Japan, he says, is paying about $15 per million
British thermal units (mBTU), compared with the US Henry Hub price of just $4-$5.5 per mBTU and a price of well below $10 per
mBTU in Europe.
US funding for methane hydrates is development – contextual evidence
proves
Anderson 14 – BBC News Business Reporter (Richard BBC News, Published April 16, 2014
“Methane Hydrate: Dirty Fuel or Energy Saviour” http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610) RF
The US, Canada and
Japan have all ploughed millions of dollars into research and have carried out a
number of test projects, while South Korea, India and China are also looking at developing their reserves. The US launched
a national research and development programme as far back as 1982, and by 1995 had completed its assessment of gas
hydrate resources. It has since instigated pilot projects in the Blake Ridge area off the coast of South Carolina, on the Alaska
North Slope and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, with five projects still running . "The department continues to
do research and development to better understand this domestic resource... [which we see] as an exciting
opportunity with enormous potential," says Chris Smith of the US Department of Energy. The US has worked
closely with Canada and Japan and there have been a number of successful production tests since 1998,
most recently in Alaska in 2012 and, more significantly, in the Nankai Trough off the central coast of Japan in
March last year - the first successful offshore extraction of natural gas from methane hydrate.
AT: Russian Oil Disad
Lower oil prices won’t hurt Russia – international oil companies stabilize
profits
Alamri ’14 – head of State Oil Marketing Organization in Iraq - [Falah – interviewed by
Pavel Koshkin editor of Russia Direct “Does the U.S. shale gas revolution threaten Russia and OPEC?”
May 22, 2014, Accessed June 27, 2014. http://www.russia-direct.org/content/does-us-shale-gasrevolution-threaten-russia-and-opec] RF
D: Ok, you still didn’t mention the effect of the shale revolution on global energy prices. After all, some experts in the
U.S. predict that shale gas revolution might severely affect energy prices in Russia and Gulf countries. That, in turn, might
undermine their economic and political stability. Do you find such forecast well grounded or is it just exaggeration? F.A.: It’s fun to
say that it may undermine stability. After all, there is gas produced by international companies, and they are not
coming from another planet no matter if they are Russian or if they are American. They work in
coordination with the initial policy of each company. And if there is huge gas production that creates a stable
international market, again, it will just affect the production of oil: There will be not the growth of oil like now,
the growth might be decreased in favor of gas. So, shale gas will not undermine [the stability of] those
countries that produce gas, because international companies want to go and produce gas from
unconventional sources of energy, it is not going to be cheap and they are not going to produce it in this
case.
Non-Unique - US and EU seek to reduce dependence on Russian Oil
significantly
Alamri ’14 – head of State Oil Marketing Organization in Iraq - [Falah – interviewed by
Pavel Koshkin editor of Russia Direct “Does the U.S. shale gas revolution threaten Russia and OPEC?”
May 22, 2014, Accessed June 27, 2014. http://www.russia-direct.org/content/does-us-shale-gasrevolution-threaten-russia-and-opec] RF
RD: In the context of the shale gas revolution and the decrease in gas exports to Europe, Russia might
exaggerate Europe’s
dependence on Russia’s gas and underestimate the U.S. potential to help Europe handle this dependence .
Do you agree? F.A.: Because we live in the era of gas and they seek to change the geography of gas, Russia is
now facing a lot of challenges, real challenges. And the first of these challenges is it has to maintain its supply to
Europe, the percentage of this supply. Today, America is selling its gas to Europe and, in addition, the U.S. and
UK started importing from Qatar. Because of politics, America and Europe try to change the route of gas. In
reality, it was about three-four years ago when they thought about the gas coming from Qatar to Europe. To paraphrase, they want to
increase the source of supply that should come not just from Russia. And I think in the future Europe will seek to
decrease its dependency on Russia.
Oil Prices don’t prop up Russia – dependence on Exports undermines the
Russian economy
Nye ’14 - Professor and former Dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Business.
[Joseph “Shale Gas Is America's Geopolitical Trump Card” Wall Street Journal June 8, 2014, Accessed
June 27, 2014. http://online.wsj.com/articles/joseph-nye-shale-gas-is-americas-geopolitical-trump-card1402266357] RF
When Russia and China announced a $400 billion deal last month for Russia to supply China with 38 billion cubic meters of natural
gas annually for three decades, some analysts heralded it as a tectonic geopolitical shift. Instead, Vladimir's Putin's
haste to
sign a deal that had been in the making for more than a decade confirmed his country's political
weakness. Despite being buoyed by high energy prices in the first decade of this century, Russia
is in decline. Demographically it is shrinking; it has severe health problems (the average Russian male dies in his early 60s); and
it is a "one-crop economy" heavily dependent on energy exports. Russia needs reforms to build a
diversified, entrepreneurial economy, but its actions in Ukraine have brought on sanctions that
weaken its access to Western ideas and technology. Becoming China's gas station does nothing to reverse this
trend.
AT: Renewables DA
Renewables won’t replace natural gas – demand is too high
Harris, 2011 – freelance writer [William master's degree in science education from Florida State
University. How Frozen Fuel Works http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/greentech/energy-production/frozen-fuel.htm Mar 17, 2011 Accessed June 20, 2014] TA
Is all of this necessary? Won't renewable energy sources make it a waste of time to pursue
another nonrenewable fossil fuel so vigorously? Realistically, fossil fuels will still be an
important component of the world's overall energy mix for decades to come. According to the Energy
Information Administration (EIA), total U.S. natural gas consumption is expected to increase from about
22 trillion cubic feet (0.622 trillion cubic meters) today to about 27 trillion cubic feet (0.76 trillion cubic meters)
in 2030. Global natural gas consumption is expected to increase to 182 trillion cubic feet (5.15 trillion cubic meters) over the same
period [source: EIA]. Tapping into the methane locked away in hydrates will obviously play a key role
in meeting that demand. That means the frozen fuel from methane hydrate can buy more time
as scientists search for alternatives to power our planet. Think of it as an important steppingstone in our transition to cleaner, greener energy sources.
Turn - Natural gas helps the transition to renewable energy – it gives us a
better transition period
Ganos 12 -- Doctor of Business Administration (Finance), Golden Gate University
(Todd, Doctor of Business Administration (Finance), Golden Gate University, Breaking U.S. Dependence
On Foreign Oil, Forbes, 1/03/12, http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddganos/2012/01/03/breaking-u-sdependence-on-foreign-oil, 6/24/14) HL
Given a combination of factors – our nation’s infrastructure, domestic resources, technology, and environmental impact – it might
be that natural gas is the natural choice. Of course, we would want to ultimately move to zero-emission sources of energy,
but we’re not there yet . . . at least our infrastructure and technology are not there yet. U.S. crude oil consumption is roughly 7 billion
barrels per year, of which approximately 4.5 billion barrels is imported. Based on data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, about 24 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year would be needed to replace the 4.5 billion
barrels per year we import. The U.S. currently produces just under this amount each year. With an
effective doubling of consumption of natural gas each year, an expansion of infrastructure would be
needed. Such an expansion might take ten years to implement. But, it would be a shift from energy investment that we
are already paying for outside the United States to energy investment inside the United States. This would
likely have the effect of pulling jobs back into the U.S. Various sources estimate that the U.S. has between
1.5 and 2.5 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. If we were to assume its complete replacement of
foreign oil, this translates to a 60 to 100-year supply. Tacking on the additional ten years for
implementation, what might technology yield in the 2080 to 2120 timeframe? I posit that technology will yield a clean,
green, cheap source of domestic energy that will once and for all put the issue to rest. So, while natural gas
certainly is not the final solution, it might well be the steppingstone that gets us there .
Turn - Methane hydrates are key to renewables – natural gas provides a
transition to clean energies
Street 2008 -attorney advisor, Office of the General Counsel, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration [Thomas, fall, Marine Methane Hydrates as Possible Energy Source,
http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/pqrl/docview/207665286/D6A77AEF34804E5CPQ/1?a
ccountid=14667, accessed6/24/14]
Approximately 21 percent of U.S. electric supply is generated by natural gas, an energy source that is among the "cleanest" of all
fossil fuels and one that is being increasingly adopted both domestically and internationally. Natural gas is seen by many as
necessary component of any transition to a national grid relying, at least in part, on renewable energy,
especially as its combustion results in approximately half of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of coal .
Natural gas, a hydrocarbon, is actually a conglomeration of several constituent gases, largely methane, but also ethane, propane,
a
butane, and carbon dioxide, among others, and is typically found in oil fields, natural gas fields, and coal beds. The majority of the
natural gas used in the United States (approximately 80 percent) is domestically produced, with the balance imported. Of the 20
percent that is imported, approximately 85 percent comes from Mexico and Canada through pipeline, with the rest imported as
liquefied natural gas (LNG) by ship. Although the United States has substantial-but depleting-reserves of natural gas, domestic
production peaked, and experts predict that increased imports will be necessary to address growing domestic shortfalls. Due to
substantially increasing global demand from China, India, and the countries of Europe, and with reserves
estimated only to last until mid-century at present rates of consumption, there is growing concern that
natural gas reserves may eventually run short, prompting some to assess possible substitutes . It has been
noted that the coastal zone and oceans possess a potentially staggering amount of unconventional natural gas
resources in the form of methane hydrates (located in near-freezing, deep water), a global hydrocarbon resource
estimated to contain twice the equivalent energy potential of all fossil fuels on the Earth.
AT: Deficits DA
Oil dependence increases the deficit – it increases prices which increases
inflation
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
This report focuses on the intersection of two issues that have concerned policymakers and the American public for decades: heavy
U.S. dependence on oil and large federal budget deficits. Surging oil prices and trillion dollar federal
deficits in recent years have magnified these concerns. While both topics have been independently studied, discussed,
and debated, little attention has been paid to the interactions between these two factors. This report explores the impact of
oil prices and oil dependence on the U.S. federal budget. Specifically, it looks at how the quadrupling of oil
prices over the last decade has affected federal budget deficits and debt. It also examines whether
reducing dependence on oil in the future could improve the federal budget balance . This is done in a two-part
analysis that uses the University of Maryland’s Inforum LIFT macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy to help quantify the direct
and indirect effects that oil prices and oil dependence have on the budget. The Part One analysis estimates how historic federal
deficits and debt levels would have been different if oil prices had risen at the same rate as the price of
other goods and services from 2002 to 2012, instead of increasing dramatically over this period. The results from this
modeling exercise indicate that, by 2012, lower oil prices would have resulted in the U.S. federal deficit being
$235 billion lower; the accumulated U.S. government debt being $1.2 trillion lower; and the debt-to-GDP ratio being 6.6
percentage points lower. Some of the drivers of the would-be impacts of lower oil prices are direct, such as the reduction in
government expenditures on fuel. The more significant drivers, however, are indirect, and include reduced inflation, which reduces
cost of living adjustments for Social Security payments, and higher economic growth, which raises incomes and therefore income tax
receipts. The Part Two analysis estimates how reducing petroleum dependence through improved fuel economy and the increased
use of alternative fuel vehicles in the transportation sector could affect the U.S. economy and federal budget in the future. The
analysis compares the economic and budgetary outcomes from such a scenario with those from a Baseline Scenario in which
petroleum use remains roughly flat. The study finds that reducing oil dependence through the increased use of alternative fuel
vehicles and improved fuel economy would
make the federal budget deficit $492 billion lower in 2040, cause the
federal government to accumulate $5 trillion less debt over the 2014-2040 period, and result in a federal debtto-GDP ratio that is 10.3 percentage points lower in 2040.
Turn – higher oil prices reduce the deficit by increasing offshore oil
royalties
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
At the same time, increasing oil prices have some positive direct impacts on the revenue side of the federal
budget by increasing the royalties collected by the federal government for crude oil produced offshore and
on federal lands. Oil royalties are structured as a percentage – typically about 12.5% for onshore and 18.75% for
offshore – of the value of oil produced on federal lands, which means increases in both price and production
generate higher revenue. In recent years, oil production royalty revenue (excluding rents and bonus bids)
has risen dramatically from $1.1 billion in 2003 to $6.2 billion in oil and gas extraction sector paid nearly
$3 billion in taxes on corporate profits, which equates to an annual rate of just over 20%.27 While this source of revenue is
impacted by a number of factors, oil prices are a major driver of the taxable profits generated by these
companies.
Oil dependence kills the economy by increasing the deficit
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
Economic researchers commonly identify reduced economic growth, current account deficits, weakened national security, and
environmental harm as negative consequences of the nation’s oil dependence. Missed in these discussions, however, is the
relationship between oil prices, U.S. oil dependence, and the U.S. federal budget. The results of the
analyses in this report
identify oil prices and dependence as meaningful contributors to both the current fiscal imbalance and the
worrisome federal budget outlook. The results of Part One indicate that U.S. dependence on oil played a
significant role in the doubling of government debt as a percentage of GDP. This comes about through the
direct and indirect impacts of the quadrupling of oil prices over the past decade . While the impact of and policy
responses to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 were the salient fiscal drivers over this time, the impact of rising oil prices are
estimated to account for $1.2 trillion of the increased debt stock. As such, this analysis suggests that had oil prices not increased
faster than the prices of other goods and services in the period of 2002-12, the current debt-to-GDP ratio would have been about 6.6
percentage points lower than it was at the end of 2012. The results of Part Two suggest that reducing the United States’ oil
dependence in the future would improve the federal budget outlook. The analysis finds that greater use of
alternative fuel vehicles and improved fuel economy would reduce future federal deficits, resulting in a reduced debt burden in 2040
of $5.0 trillion ($3.2 trillion in $2011) when using the Baseline oil price trajectory. This lowers the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2040 by 10.3
percentage points. With the federal government reaching a debt ceiling of $16.7 trillion on May 19, 2013 and a forecast by the
Congressional Budget Office that the federal debt will reach $31.4 trillion (in $2011) in 2040 under current policy, it is clear that oil
prices and oil dependence are not the primary drivers of this debt.70 However, the fiscal impacts of oil
prices and dependence are significant, and would smartly be considered in policy decisions regarding
strategies to reduce the nation’s debt. For example, the estimated contribution of oil prices to the current debt is larger
than the combined projected deficits for the next two fiscal years, FY2014 and FY2015 ($0.9 trillion); and the reduction in projected
debts from 2014 to 2040 due to increased use of alternative fuel vehicles and improved fuel economy is similar in magnitude to
eliminating projected deficits for FY2014 to FY2019 (a total of $2.9 trillion).71
AT: Natural Gas DA
Natural gas prices dropping – lower drilling costs
Fowler 14 – Economy writer for the Wall Street Journal (Tom. “Forget the Five-Year High:
Natural Gas Prices Will Melt Like the Snow” Published Feb 20, 2014, Accessed June 28, 2014. Wall Street
Journal)
Cabot Oil & Gas Co.COG +0.32%, the second largest natural gas producer in Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale, is relentlessly
cutting its drilling costs, slashing them another 10% per well in 2013. Some cost savings came from
running the company’s trucks on lower-cost natural gas rather than diesel fuel. “This is the reason we can
break even, or even deliver a return on a well, if gas prices push down to $1.20,” Cabot Chief Executive
Dan Dinges said. But Cabot competitor Range Resources Corp.RRC -0.78% warns too much drilling,
however cost-efficient, could crater natural gas prices by adding too much supply too fast. In parts of
Marcellus Shale, where gas output is skyrocketing, there aren’t enough pipelines to take natural gas to customers in
the Northeast. Bottlenecks like the ones building in Pennsylvania will drop prices like a rock, Range Senior
Vice President Rodney Waller said. “If you hurry up and go too fast in this kind of environment you can
overwhelm the infrastructure and screw up the economics,” he said.
AT: Oil Price DA
Lower oil prices increase the economy – models prove
Wescott, 2013 - President of Keybridge Research [Robert, Phillip L. Swagel, Jeffrey Werling,
Douglas Meade, Brendan Fitzpatrick, , Oil and the Debt, Keybridge Public Policy Economics, Sept. 23
2013, http://www.aei.org/files/2013/09/23/-oil-and-the-debt_174003485289.pdf, Acc. Jun 25 2014] LS
As indicated in Table 1, the LIFT model estimates that
lower oil prices would have boosted real gross domestic
product by 1.1 percent (about $175 billion) by 2012. This stronger economy would boost employment, adding
an additional 1.3 million jobs to the U.S economy by 2012 and lowering the unemployment rate by 0.6
percentage points. The stronger economy provides several budgetary benefits. First, higher employment helps
reduce the government’s expenditures on unemployment payments, food stamps, and Medicaid. Indeed, the
model estimates that in the Low Oil Price Alternative Scenario, unemployment benefits are about 18% lower in
2012, saving the government $16 billion in that year and $97 billion cumulatively over the decade. While some of the
reduction in spending can be attributed to stronger economic growth, most can be attributed to lower inflation. In sum, the model
estimates that stronger growth and lower inflation in the Low Oil Price Alternative Scenario reduce total
transfer payments (excluding Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment insurance, which are all discussed above) by about
$39 billion in 2012, and by $190 billion cumulatively. On balance, stronger economic growth outweighs the inflation effect to
modestly boost tax revenues. In the Low Oil Price Alternative Scenario, higher real incomes induce $32 billion in additional personal
income taxes payments Oil and the Debt 13 in 2012. The cumulative increase in personal taxes is $188 billion. Similarly, better
growth boosts corporate taxes by a cumulative $146 billion from 2003 to 2012. Overall, tax revenues increase by $315
billion over the decade.
Oil price volatility hurts the economy – it increases costs for consumers and
discourages business investment
Parry 03 – senior fellow at resources for the future (Joel, senior fellow at resources for the
future, The Costs of U.S. Oil Dependency, Resources for the future, December 2003,
http://www.rff.org/documents/rff-dp-03-59.pdf, 6/24/14)
Even without destabilizing behavior by OPEC, we might still expect volatility in world oil prices due to
fluctuating economic conditions; for example, unexpectedly cold winters or unexpectedly rapid world
economic growth can lead to transitory price spikes. Economic disruption costs from oil-price volatility
have two main components, increased import costs and macroeconomic adjustment costs. We discuss each of
these in turn. 3.2.1 Increased Import Costs This is the wealth transfer from domestic consumers to foreign
suppliers from a temporary price increase, approximately equal to the level of U.S. imports times the price increase.
Whether there is actually any externality here is somewhat questionable. If businesses and households correctly anticipate the risk of
price shocks this would be factored into their decisions and there would be no externality. Unfortunately it is very difficult to judge
to what extent actual price volatility might be anticipated beforehand. Analysts therefore take a wide range of scenarios; for example,
Leiby et al. (1997) assume that the portion of any given price shock that is anticipated is between 25% and 100%. There are two ways
to estimate the associated component of the oil premium. The first is to infer the likelihood of future price shocks from previous
experience. For example, there were five price shocks from 1973–1997, and the average price increase was 110% of the predisruption
price, or $10/BBL (Leiby et al. 1997). The expected shock size per year over this period (counting no-shock years as zero) was
therefore $2/BBL. Using scenarios when the portion of the price shock that is anticipated is 25% and 100% gives a premium
component of $1.5/BBL or $0 respectively (in the latter case there is no premium because the risk of price shocks has already been
taken into account by the private sector). Most analysts expect the future frequency and size of disruptions to be lower than in the
past, though there is little agreement on how much lower. The other approach is to attach probabilities to given supply disruptions
due to OPEC and other factors in any given year, and infer the resulting price effects based on assumptions about oil demand and
supply elasticities, use of the SPR, and so on. For example, in their high disruptions scenario, Leiby et al. (1997) assume 13%
probability of a 1MMBD disruption each year, 3.5% probability of a 3 MMBD disruption, and 0.5% for a 6MMBD disruption. Leiby
et al. (1997) compute the import cost component of the oil premium as high as $4/BBL, but typically below $1/BBL, under different
scenarios for disruption probabilities. They also compute how a reduction in U.S. imports might dampen the price effect of a given
supply disruption (see their Table 3). At a first glance, variability of oil prices about a given trend might appear to have
approximately no effect on the expected costs of petroleum consumption. Additional energy costs in times of high prices will be
roughly offset by energy savings in times of lower prices. Indeed price volatility is pervasive across many primary commodity
markets, including those for agricultural products and other natural resources. What is different about oil? There are three main
linkages at issue here. First, oil is an intermediate good that is widely used by firms and households throughout the economy,
outside of upstream suppliers engaged in the production, importation, and refining of petroleum. Price volatility may
impose
costs on others in the economy that are not taken into account by upstream oil suppliers when they are
deciding how much to produce. Second, price volatility matters for downstream, or ultimate users of oil
products, because of adjustment costs. A basic result from production theory is that the short-run costs of varying output
in response to changes in input prices are greater when firms have fixed factors, such as sunk investments in plant and machinery.
This means that average production costs when firms have to keep changing production levels exceed average production costs when
there is no need to vary output because input prices are constant over time. Other examples of adjustment costs include workers or
capital temporarily unemployed as energy-intensive industries expand and contract over time with volatile oil prices (e.g., because it
is costly and takes time for workers to retrain or relocate or for plants to be refurbished), or households stuck with previously
purchased automobiles or investments in residential heating/cooling systems that would not have been optimal at current fuel
prices. In all these examples, the presence of adjustment costs means that firms and households are worse off under variable prices
than constant prices, for a given mean price.21
AT: Permafrost Counterplan
Methane Hydrates solve much better than land based natural gas – there
are Much larger reserves
Mader, 07 [Jim, ASM International Researcher, ASM International Mar. 1 2007, Ebsco, Accessed
Jun24 2014], LS
Estimates of the worldwide natural gas potential approach 400 million trillion cubicfeet. dwarfs the
estimated 1400 trillion cubic feet of conventional recoverable gas resources and reserves in the United
States. Worldwide, estimates of the natural gas potential of methane hydrate approach 400 million
trillion cubic feet — a staggering figure compared to the 5500 trillion cubic feet that make up the world's
currently proven gas reserves on land. Potential extraction of methane from these deposits will be presented in a
subsequent article. total) coming from Trinidad. The total LNG imported to the United States in 2003 was only abot 10.2 trillion
cubic feet (out of a total U.S. consumption of about 23 trillion cubic feet, or about rX. of the total). However, DOF/FIA projects
that LNG imports will need to increase by 2010 to over two trillion cubic feet and exceed even the amount
the U.S. imports by pipeline from Canada.
Counterplan cannot solve – most methane hydrates are in the ocean, not
the permafrost
Chung-Chieng, 2005 - Climate Studies Team Leader [A. Lai, Dietrich, Bowman, Climate
Studies Team Leader, Technical Staff Member, Earth & Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos
National Lab., Los Alamos, NM, Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate, Topics in
Catalysis, March 1, 2005, Ebsco June 26, 2014]KF
Methane hydrate is usually found in the ocean sediments on the sea floor of the continental shelf/slope (at
a depth range of 350–1200 m) [4]. A small fraction of methane hydrate resource is also found in the polar
permafrost. Methane hydrate is an ice-like crystalline; its molecular structure is similar to ice except that there is a methane
molecule trapped within the hexagon/ pentagon cage of ice. Methane hydrate exists in meta- stable equilibrium with its marine
environment and is affected by changes in pressure and temperature (see figure 1 for its phase diagram and the average sea water
temperature profile) [3]. When it dissociates (due to either lowering pressure or rising water temperature), the ice cage melts and
the methane gas escapes.
Most methane hydrates are in the ocean
Ruppel, 11, Coordinator of the Georgia Tech Focused Research Program on
Methane Hydrates [Methane Hydrates and the Future of Natural Gas
http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/wpcontent/uploads/2013/09/Supplementary_Paper_SP_2_4_Hydrates.pdf] SALH
An estimated 99% of worldwide gas hydrate occurs in ocean sediments, and the appropriate temperature and
pressure conditions predominate within the upper tens to hundreds of meters of seafloor sediments at water depths ranging from
300 to 500 m on the shallow end to greater than 4000 m. In theory, methane hydrates are also stable on the seafloor and in the
water column in large swaths of the world’s oceans. Gas hydrates do not persist long in the water column, and seafloor gas hydrates
are not significant as a resource. Neither type of gas hydrate will be discussed in detail here. Onshore, methane hydrates
occur almost exclusively in areas with thick permafrost. The appropriate temperature and pressure conditions can
occur over a zone that is typically several hundreds of meters thick and that encompasses the bottom part of the permafrost-bearing
section and the top of the subpermafrost sedimentary section.
Plan solves the Methane Bursts Advantage better - Seafloor methane is
more likely to leak than the permafrost because it is not permanently
frozen
Clarke Jr., 2010 – Former Aide to president Carter [Thomas, Environmental lawyer and
Former aide to president carter, Arctic seafloor is leaking methane
http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsroom/environmental/b/environmental-lawblog/archive/2011/04/11/natural-gas-development-poses-a-risk-of-enhancing-ghg-emissions-due-toquot-leakage-quot-note-new-studies.aspx A.S.
Previously, scientists presumed that the carbon trapped in sediments on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
was sealed by permafrost, as nearby deposits on land are. However, the researchers note a major
difference. Much of the permafrost on land remains intact because it is exposed to bitter winter cold,
whereas the seafloor permafrost is bathed in cold, but not freezing, salt water . The annual average temperature of
seafloor permafrost is between 12 and 17 degrees warmer than that of nearby land-based permafrost. The researchers
speculate that the warmth of the seawater, as well as heat flowing up from within the Earth, has thawed
the seafloor permafrost, releasing the methane. Sonar images show plumes of methane bubbling from the
seafloor, indicating that the gas originates in sediments there. Other measurements show that the methane is not generated in the
water by microbes or brought to the seas by rivers. Each year, the researchers estimate, nearly 8 million metric tons
of methane make their way to the atmosphere over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. That amount is more than previous
estimates for all of the world's oceans.
Permafrost methane hydrate mining would harm native people – it would
occur in vulnerable environments
Clarke Jr., 2008 – Former Aide to president Carter [Thomas, Environmental lawyer and Former aide to president carter,
Substantial quantities of extractable methane hydrates identified in Alaska http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsroom/topemerging-trend/b/emerging-trends-law-blog/archive/2008/11/13/substantial-quantities-of-extractable-methane-hydratesidentified-in-alaska.aspx
It has generally been assumed that methane hydrates would be difficult to access, and that only if hydrocarbon
prices remained high would it be economic to recover methane from these formations. The U.S. Geological Service has
identified formations that may be more economic to exploit . The area assessed in northern Alaska extends
from the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) on the west through the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
(ANWR) on the east and from the Brooks Range northward to the State-Federal offshore boundary (located three
miles north of the coastline). This area consists mostly of Federal, State, and Native lands covering about 55,894 sq.
miles. Needless to say, environmentalists are opposed to any intrusion into ANWR . For the Northern Alaska Gas
Hydrate Total Petroleum System, the USGS estimates that the total undiscovered natural gas resources in gas hydrate range between
25.2 and 157.8 trillion cubic, with a mean estimate of 85.4 TCF [the U.S. uses approximately 23 TCF of natural gas annually; see
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/13/MN9L1438D8.DTL&hw=methane+hydrate&sn=001&sc=1000]. Of
this mean estimate, (1) about 24 percent (20.6 TCF) is in the Sagavanirktok Formation Gas Hydrate assessment unit (AU), (2) 33
percent (28.0 TCF) is within the Tuluvak-Schrader Bluff-Prince Creek Formations Gas Hydrate AU, and (3) 43 percent (36.9 TCF) is
in the Nanushuk Formation Gas Hydrate AU (table 1). Given that relatively few wells have penetrated the expected gas hydrate
accumulations in these three AUs, there is significant geologic uncertainty in these estimates. The mean estimate of 85.4 TCF of gas
within the gas hydrates of northern Alaska is considerably less than the 590 TCF reported in the 1995 USGS assessment.
AT: Shale Oil Counterplan
Methane Hydrates solve much better than land based natural gas – there
are Much larger reserves
Mader, 07 [Jim, ASM International Researcher, ASM International Mar. 1 2007, Ebsco, Accessed
Jun24 2014], LS
Estimates of the worldwide natural gas potential approach 400 million trillion cubicfeet. dwarfs the
estimated 1400 trillion cubic feet of conventional recoverable gas resources and reserves in the United
States. Worldwide, estimates of the natural gas potential of methane hydrate approach 400 million
trillion cubic feet — a staggering figure compared to the 5500 trillion cubic feet that make up the world's
currently proven gas reserves on land. Potential extraction of methane from these deposits will be presented in a
subsequent article. total) coming from Trinidad. The total LNG imported to the United States in 2003 was only abot 10.2 trillion
cubic feet (out of a total U.S. consumption of about 23 trillion cubic feet, or about rX. of the total). However, DOF/FIA projects
that LNG imports will need to increase by 2010 to over two trillion cubic feet and exceed even the amount
the U.S. imports by pipeline from Canada.
Fracking shale gas destroys the environment – it causes methane leaks and
harms water quality
Foster 13-- professor of sociology at the University of Oregon (John Bellamy, editor of
Monthly Review, “The Fossil Fuels War”, Monthly Review, Sep 2013, Proquest, Accessed 27 June 2014)
DZ
Other unconventionals are also altering the terrain of the struggle. The last
few years have witnessed dramatic, new
technological developments with respect to hydraulic fracturing coupled with horizontal drilling or
"tracking." Sand, water, and chemicals are injected at high pressures in order to blast open shale rock,
releasing the trapped gas inside. After the well has reached a certain depth the drilling occurs horizontally.
Fracking has led to the rapid exploitation of vast, hitherto inaccessible, reserves of shale gas and tight oil in states across the country
from Pennsylvania and Ohio to North Dakota and California, unexpectedly catapulting the United States once again into
the position of a major fossil-fuel power. It has already led to substantial increases in natural-gas
production, replacing dirtier and more carbon-emitting coal in generating electricity. Together the economic slowdown and the
shift from coal to natural gas due to fracking have resulted in a 12 percent drop in U.S. (direct) carbon dioxide emissions between
2005 and 2012, reaching their lowest level since 1994.14 Nevertheless, the negative environmental and health effects of
fracking falling on communities throughout the United States are enormous, if still not fully assessed. Toxic
pollution from fracking is contaminating water supplies and affecting wastewater treatment not designed
to cope with such hazards. Methane leakages from fracking, in the case of shale gas, are threatening to
accelerate climate change. If such leakages cannot be contained, tracked natural-gas production could
prove more dangerous to the climate than coal. Fracking has also engendered earthquakes in the
extractive areas. In response to such developments, a whole new environmental resistance to fracking has arisen in communities
throughout North America, Australia, and elsewhere.
Fracking causes cancer- chemical release
Furguson ’13 [ Oct 07). Environment, maryland's report highlights fracking concerns. Proquest
Accessed June 25, 2014// LJ
The report provided data on the impact of fracking: It produced an estimated 280 billion gallons of
wastewater in 2012. Injecting waste underground in parts of Ohio caused 102 localized earthquakes, one
at 3.5 on the Richter scale. Some 2 billion gallons of chemicals, some cancer causing, have been mixed with
water to open up shale deposits.
Fracking destroys the environment- contamination
Mckie, 2012 [robin, you need to get the quals, feb 26. In focus: environment: fracking: answer to our
energy crisis, or could it be a disaster for the environment? The observer Proquest. LS]
It is a dramatic and disturbing sight, one that has become a YouTube favourite in recent months after being distributed by
environmental groups as a warning about the dangers of drilling for shale gas, or fracking, as the practice is commonly known.
Activists claim that in this case the flaming faucet - filmed in a farmhouse in Pennsylvania - was generated by methane
that had leaked from a shale gas extraction plant into an aquifer. And what has apparently happened in
Pennsylvania could soon happen in the UK, say environmentalists. They are alarmed at the prospect of a resumption of fracking in
Britain, after the practice was halted last year when shale gas extraction was linked to a number of small earthquakes in Lancashire.
A report on the incidents is being studied by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and a finding is expected in the next few
weeks. Drilling companies are hoping it will give fracking a clean bill of health and allow them to resume operations and open up
new plants, a process that they say will bring jobs and cheap energy to Britain for several decades. One industry estimate suggests
that shale gas reserves in Lancashire alone could deliver pounds 6bn of gas a year for the next three decades. "Britain became a net
importer of gas recently," said a spokesman for Cuadrilla, one of the big drilling companies working here. "Our North Sea reserves
are dwindling and we are becoming more reliant on supplies from countries such as Russia. Shale gas could restore our
independence and create thousands of jobs." But reports of drinking water supplies being contaminated by shale
gas and toxins being released from extraction plants - as has happened in Pennsylvania, where thousands of fracking
centres are now in operation - horrify many of those who live in villages and towns near proposed UK drilling. They see little
prospect of improved employment from plants, only contamination and blight.
AT: Japan Counterplan
Unilateral Japanese development is too expensive
U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2013 [ Japan Energy: Overview, October 29, 2013,
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=ja, Acc. Jun 26 2014] LS
Japanese companies are using innovative methods to produce hydrocarbons and have discovered
methane hydrates off the country's east coast. In March 2013, JOGMEC conducted the first successful testing of methane
hydrates offshore and confirmed Japan's estimates of 40 Tcf of methane hydrates in the Nankai Trough on the southeast coast of the
country. Japan hopes to begin production by 2018, although the high cost of such developments could push
back production plans.
AT: Biowaste Methane Counterplan
Increasing the amount of methanogens will lead to their deathBacteriophages
Chien 2013 - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of
Washington, Seattle [I-Chieh Chien1 , John Scott Meschke1,2*, Heidi L. Gough1 , John F. Ferguson1
1.. “Characterization of persistent virus-like particles in two acetate-fed methanogenic reactors”.
doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0081040//Accessed June 26, 2014//LJ//
Viruses of Bacteria (bacteriophages or phages) and Archaea (archeoviruses) [12], have been shown to influence
the composition of microbial communities through cell lysis [13]. By targeting the most rapid growing
populations (“kill the winner” theory), viruses are believed to stimulate microbial diversity [14]. Diverse and abundant
virus-like particles (VLPs) have been reported to inhabit anaerobic digestion systems, suggesting that VLPs may play an important
role in functioning process [15,16]. About two-thirds of the methane produced in mesophilic anaerobic digesters is from acetoclastic
methanogens [17,18], and Methanosaeta is typically the dominant genus [19], which suggesting Methanosaeta
may be a favorable target for viral attack. Therefore, viral attack on the Methanosaeta may explain observed
process upsets characterized by loss of methane production. Viruses of acetoclastic methanogens have not been
isolated, a task which is complicated by slow host growth rates (4.8 day doubling time for Methanosaeta) [20] and lack of anaerobic
solid media methods for plaque assays (i.e. one month of Methanosaeta growth results in <1 mm diameter colonies and no lawn
formation [21]).
Bio-Methane is inefficient and costly
Hein, 2006 – Reporter for Canadian Biomass [Treena, Reporter for Canadian Biomass,
Beyond bio-methane, New Agriculturalist, March 2006, http://www.newag.info/en/focus/focusItem.php?a=1166, Jun 30th 2014] LS
For thousands of years, livestock manure has been used as fuel for fires to provide warmth and a means to cook. But only in the
last fifty years has manure's potential as a source of electricity has been realised through the use of bio-methane
digester systems in Asia, Europe and, increasingly, North America. However, the generator systems used to collect
the methane from manure - which is used to produce electricity - are relatively costly and energy inefficient. As
an alternative, scientists have been investigating the natural ability of microbes - found in manure and rumen fluid - to produce
electricity. If successful, microbial fuel cells have the potential to provide farmers worldwide with a reliable, steady and economical
method of powering applications.
Bio-Methane slows development of actual renewables
Freedman, 2011– Head of The Utility Reform Network [Matthew, Marcel Hawiger, Head of
The Utility Reform Network of California, COMMENTS OF THE UTILITY REFORM NETWORK ON THE
USE OF BIOMETHANE DELIVERED VIA THE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE SYSTEM FOR
CALIFORNIA’S RENEWABLES PORTFOLIO STANDARD, The Utility Reform Network, September 30,
2011, http://ww.cash4appliances.org/portfolio/documents/2011-0920_workshop/comments/TURN_Comments_of_the_Utility_Reform_Network.pdf, Jun 30th 2014] LS
The use of pipeline biomethane does not result in any new capacity being connected to, or scheduled into, a California
Balancing Authority. As a result, even massive purchases of pipeline biomethane have zero impact on the
amount of capacity and energy available to California. It is therefore impossible to argue that pipeline
biomethane procurement is a legitimate substitute for actual generation using renewable fuels. Allowing
pipeline biomethane to count towards RPS compliance will only reduce the anticipated development of new
renewable resources in the coming years and undermine the goals established by the Governor. Some POUs are
already planning to procure sufficient quantities of pipeline biomethane to avoid any need for new
renewable energy for many years. For example, Burbank Water and Power plans to procure 4,000 Dth/day of pipeline
biomethane which equals 16% of their retail sales (and would increase their total portfolio from 9% to 25% renewable), thereby
allowing them to defer any new renewable energy procurement until 2017 or later.2 If more
AT: Landfill Methane CP
Energy capture for landfills has net harms – inefficient system
Stewart, 2013– Senior Research Scientist at University of the West [Jim, earned a PhD
in Physics from Yale University and teaches at the University of the West in Rosemead, CA, Landfill Gasto-Energy Projects May Release More Greenhouse Gases Than Flaring, Energy Justice Network, January
2013, http://www.energyjustice.net/lfg, Jun 30th 2014] LS
This paper compares the net greenhouse gas (GHG) effects of most landfill-gas-to-energy projects with the traditional practice of
burning the captured methane in a flare. Based on studies by government agencies, consultants to the waste
industry, and academic institutions, a potential result is 3.8 - 7.8 times more net GHG emissions for energy
recovery projects compared to flaring. This outcome is based on the larger fugitive emissions from “wet” landfills
used for energy recovery compared to those from “dry” landfills used for flaring. Since the GHG savings from replacing
fossil fuel with the landfill methane could be negated by GHG impacts of the fugitive emissions, “renewable
energy” credits should not be given to landfill gas, except when operators can demonstrate no more emissions than
flaring.
Waste Methane capture is highly inefficient – methane escapes
Stewart, 2013– Senior Research Scientist at University of the West [Jim, earned a PhD
in Physics from Yale University and teaches at the University of the West in Rosemead, CA, Landfill Gasto-Energy Projects May Release More Greenhouse Gases Than Flaring, Energy Justice Network, January
2013, http://www.energyjustice.net/lfg, Jun 30th 2014] LS
In any event, the SCS
report indicates the waste industry recognizes the potential losses in the collection
efficiency of energy recovery compared to state of the art flaring. This means that an active landfill (shown in the left two
columns in Figure 5 on the next page) using an energy recovery system could have a collection efficiency as low as 50%, compared to
about 70% for one using flaring, which implies 1.6 times more methane is likely escaping when a landfill is used for energy recovery.
A study of Dutch landfills21 shown in the two right columns found that, averaged over the life of the landfill, flaring
gas extraction systems designed for minimizing emissions could realize collection efficiencies only up to 50%, while energy
recovery systems averaged only 20% efficiency. However, the numerical factor is the same, 1.6 times more
methane is likely escaping when a landfill is used for energy recovery.
Landfill capture Fails - Actual global warming savings are very small –
increased production means more leaks
Stewart, 2013– Senior Research Scientist at University of the West [Jim, earned a PhD
in Physics from Yale University and teaches at the University of the West in Rosemead, CA, Landfill Gasto-Energy Projects May Release More Greenhouse Gases Than Flaring, Energy Justice Network, January
2013, http://www.energyjustice.net/lfg, Jun 30th 2014] LS
In addition to the 1.6 times increase in fugitive emissions at energy recovery sites, there is the effect reported
above that wet landfills produce 2.3 – 4.7 times more methane than dry ones. If we combine these two observed effects, the net
result would be 3.8 - 7.8 times more net GHG emissions for energy recovery compared to flaring (this value is irrespective of the
value of the GHG multiplier for methane, but the GHG impact is five times greater when using the 105 multiplier for
methane). The charts in Figure 6 indicate the actual global warming savings using the captured methane from
energy recovery to replace the burning of fossil methane are very small (0.0007 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
per typical ton of municipal solid waste (MSW)), much less than the overall impacts of the escaping methane. The left
chart shows a net increase of GHG emissions of 0.034 CO2 equivalent tons/ MSW ton using the old (1995) multiplier of 21 (which is
still used by the US EPA for “consistency”).
AT: Technology PIC
Combining processes vital to efficient recovery
Haeckel, 2012 - Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences [Matthias,
Kossel, Bigalke, Deusner, Research Scientist, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (GEOMAR), Kiel,
Germany, Methane Production from Gas Hydrate Deposits through Injection of Supercritical CO2,
Energies (19961073), June 25, 2012, Ebsco June 24, 2014] KAF
Our results suggest that both efficiency
and rate of CH4 production can be optimized in numerous ways. The
additional combination with depressurization is likely to improve the production process, since CH4hydrates could initially be destabilized to facilitate injection of the supercritical CO2. In turn, the heat of the
CO2 can then compensate the cooling of the reservoir induced by the endothermic hydrate dissociation
from depressurization. As a consequence, substantial production rates of CH4 gas could be maintained over
extended periods of time. Different modifications of the injection fluid with respect to its composition and injection
temperature as well as of the injection strategy itself might avoid early CO2 breakthrough and also improve gas mobilization, which
was identified as a possible obstacle in the production process (i.e., in the 10 °C experiment). According to our results, reservoir
conditions including temperature, pressure and permeability have a major influence on the production process and the choice of
appropriate reservoir sites and technical means to influence the reservoir properties will be of paramount importance. So far, our
experiments lack from the impossibility to directly monitor the processes and phase distribution inside the pressure vessel. Instead,
this information has to be obtained indirectly from the analysis of effluent fluids. Hence, future studies would benefit significantly
from the application of online monitoring including imaging techniques such as MRI or CT. Because of the complexity of the
numerous physical and chemical processes contributing to the overall CH4 production we emphasize the
importance of understanding the behavior of the system from the reservoir scale down to the pore scale. Only such
knowledge can lead to progress in production simulations and laboratory experiments, which are
prerequisites for the development of optimized production techniques.
AT: Apocalyptic Rhetoric K
Apocalyptic fears of methane can jumpstart action on climate
Kristof, 2006 – columnist for New York Times [Nicholas April 18, 2006 The Big Burp Theory
of the Apocalypse - New York Times]
http://select.nytimes.com/mem/tnt.html?tntget=2006/04/18...nion/18kristof.html&tntemail0=y&emc=
tnt&pagewanted=print (2 of 3)4/18/2006 6:13:35 AMThe Big Burp Theory of the Apocalypse - New York
Times
The White House has used scientific uncertainty as an excuse for its paralysis. But our leaders are
supposed to devise policies to protect us even from threats that are difficult to assess precisely — and
climate change should be considered even more menacing than a nuclear-armed Iran. Moreover, uncertainty
cuts both ways. The best guess of climate experts is that the seas will rise by two feet by 2100, but if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
were to melt, then that alone would raise the seas by 20 feet. Frankly, it's the well-known risks of rising temperatures
and sea levels — more than worry about a cataclysmic methane burp — that should drive us to curb
carbon emissions. But our political system doesn't seem able to grapple with scientific issues like climate. Our only hope for firm
action would be a major U.S.-led global initiative to curb carbon, and the Bush administration has already dropped the ball on that.
The best reason for action on global warming remains the basic imperative to safeguard our planet in the
face of uncertainty, and our leaders are failing wretchedly in that responsibility. If we need an apocalypse to
concentrate our minds, then just imagine our descendants sitting on the top of Mount Ararat beside their
ark, cursing us for triggering a methane burp.
Greenhouse Debate
AT: Greenhouse Disad – 2AC
Methane release from Hydrates is inevitable and will cause catastrophic
warming – mining it is the only solution
Anderson 14 – BBC News Business Reporter (Richard BBC News, Published April 16, 2014
“Methane Hydrate: Dirty Fuel or Energy Saviour” http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610) RF
Methane hydrates are found mainly under ocean seabeds and Arctic permafrost However, this may be a far
better option than the alternative. In fact, we may have no choice. As global temperatures rise, warming
oceans and melting permafrost, the enormous reserves of methane trapped in ice may be released naturally. The
consequences could be a catastrophic circular reaction, as warming temperatures release more methane,
which in turn raises temperatures further. "If all the methane gets out, we're looking at a Mad Max
movie," says Mr Varro. "Even using conservative estimates of methane [deposits], this could make all the CO2 from
fossil fuels look like a joke. "How long can the gradual warming go on before the methane gets out?
Nobody knows, but the longer it goes on, the closer we get to playing Russian roulette." Capturing the
methane and burning it suddenly looks like rather a good idea. Maybe this particular hydrocarbon
addiction could prove beneficial for us all.
Methane gas mining doesn’t increase warming – it is stable and increases
carbon sequestration
Shimizu 2013 - The Sasakawa Peace Foundation at the CSIS [Aiko student at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School March 2013, The future of US-Japan alliance collaboration,
Energy Security and Methane Hydrate Exploration in US-Japan
Relationshttp://csis.org/files/publication/issuesinsights_vol13no8.pdf, 6/29/14) HL
Moreover, the largest
concern – releasing methane gas and impacting climate change – may be mitigated
for several reasons. First, some scholars have argued that methane hydrate formation may actually be less
risky compared to other forms of gas drilling.47 Because methane gas in methane hydrates are trapped
inside cage-like hydrates, the flow of methane gas may stop naturally once pumping stops.48 Second,
according to a paper published by the USGS in Nature Education, only approximately five percent of the world’s methane hydrate
deposits would spontaneously release the gas even if global temperatures continue to rise over the next millennium.49 Third,
bacteria in the nearby soil could consume and oxidize the methane so that as low as 10 percent of the
dissociated methane would reach the atmosphere.50 Fourth, there may be another potential technology
for methane hydrate extraction that could help to combat climate change . The joint research between the
US and Japan at Alaska’s North Slope has demonstrated that carbon dioxide can replace methane within
the ice cage.51 Once the carbon dioxide is locked inside of it, the water cage binds even tighter, thereby
leaving no space for the methane to reenter.52 This way of extracting methane gas for fuel may double as
a way of sequestering the carbon dioxide.53
Researching methane hydrates is key to solving greenhouse because they
could trigger runaway warming
World Ocean Review 14 (Contributors: Dr. Christian Bücker, Dr. Uwe Jenisch, Stephan Lutter,
Prof. Dr. Nele Matz-Lück, Jürgen Messner, Dr. Sven Petersen, Prof. Dr. Lars H. Rüpke, Dr. Ulrich
Schwarz-Schampera, Prof. Dr. Klaus Wallmann. Published February 2014. Accessed June 25, 2014.
http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/)
Considering that methane hydrates only form under very specific conditions, it is conceivable that global
warming, which as a
affect the stability of gas hydrates. There are indications in the history
of the Earth suggesting that climatic changes in the past could have led to the destabilization of methane
hydrates and thus to the release of methane. These indications – including measurements of the methane content in ice cores, for
matter of fact includes warming of the oceans, could
instance – are still controversial. Yet be this as it may, the issue is highly topical and is of particular interest to -scientists concerned
with predicting the possible impacts of a temperature increase on the present deposits of methane hydrate. Methane is a potent
greenhouse gas, around 20 times more effective per molecule than carbon dioxide. An increased release from the
ocean into the atmosphere could further intensify the greenhouse effect. Investigations of methane
hydrates stability in dependance of temperature fluctuations, as well as of methane behaviour after it is
released, are therefore urgently needed.
Methane hydrates solve warming – methane replaces dirtier fuels
Chung-Chieng, 2005 - Climate Studies Team Leader [A. Lai, Dietrich, Bowman, Climate
Studies Team Leader, Technical Staff Member, Earth & Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos
National Lab., Los Alamos, NM, Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate, Topics in
Catalysis, March 1, 2005, Ebsco June 26, 2014]KF
In this paper, we focus on the earth’s carbon budget and the associated energy transfer between various components of the climate
system. This research invokes some new concepts: (i) certain biochemical processes which strongly interact with geophysical
processes in climate system; (ii) a hypothesis that internal processes in the oceans rather than in the atmosphere are
at the center of global warming; (iii) chemical energy stored in biochemical processes can significantly affect ocean dynamics
and therefore the climate system. Based on those concepts, we propose a new hypothesis for global warming. We also propose a
revolutionary strategy to deal with global climate change and provide domestic energy security at the
same time. Recent ocean exploration indicates that huge deposits of oceanic methane hydrate deposits
exist on the seafloor on continental margins. Methane hydrate transforms into water and methane gas when it
dissociates. So, this potentially could provide the United States with energy security if the technology for
mining in the 200- mile EEZ is developed and is economically viable. Furthermore, methane hydrate is a relatively
environmentally benign, clean fuel. Such technology would help industry reduce carbon dioxide emissions
to the atmosphere, and thus reduce global warming by harnessing the energy from the deep sea .
Natural gas helps the transition to renewable energy – it gives us a better
transition period
Ganos 12 -- Doctor of Business Administration (Finance), Golden Gate University
(Todd, Doctor of Business Administration (Finance), Golden Gate University, Breaking U.S. Dependence
On Foreign Oil, Forbes, 1/03/12, http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddganos/2012/01/03/breaking-u-sdependence-on-foreign-oil, 6/24/14) HL
Given a combination of factors – our nation’s infrastructure, domestic resources, technology, and environmental impact – it might
be that natural gas is the natural choice. Of course, we would want to ultimately move to zero-emission sources of energy,
but we’re not there yet . . . at least our infrastructure and technology are not there yet. U.S. crude oil consumption is roughly 7 billion
barrels per year, of which approximately 4.5 billion barrels is imported. Based on data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, about 24 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year would be needed to replace the 4.5 billion
barrels per year we import. The U.S. currently produces just under this amount each year. With an
effective doubling of consumption of natural gas each year, an expansion of infrastructure would be
needed. Such an expansion might take ten years to implement. But, it would be a shift from energy investment that we
are already paying for outside the United States to energy investment inside the United States. This would
likely have the effect of pulling jobs back into the U.S. Various sources estimate that the U.S. has between
1.5 and 2.5 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. If we were to assume its complete replacement of
foreign oil, this translates to a 60 to 100-year supply. Tacking on the additional ten years for
implementation, what might technology yield in the 2080 to 2120 timeframe? I posit that technology will yield a clean,
green, cheap source of domestic energy that will once and for all put the issue to rest. So, while natural gas
certainly is not the final solution, it might well be the steppingstone that gets us there .
Ext – Non Unique – Warming Now
Warming is happening now, we are already experiencing effects and global
warming will only get worse – studies prove.
New York Times 14 [The New York Times, Justin Gillis, “U.S. Climate Has Already Changed, Study
Finds, Citing Heat and Floods,” http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/07/science/earth/climate-changereport.html?_r=0, Accessed 06/25/14] AC
The effects of human-induced climate change are being felt in every corner of the United States, scientists
reported Tuesday, with water growing scarcer in dry regions, torrential rains increasing in wet regions,
heat waves becoming more common and more severe, wildfires growing worse, and forests dying under
assault from heat-loving insects. Such sweeping changes have been caused by an average warming of less
than 2 degrees Fahrenheit over most land areas of the country in the past century, the scientists found. If greenhouse
gases like carbon dioxide and methane continue to escalate at a rapid pace, they said, the warming could
conceivably exceed 10 degrees by the end of this century. “Climate change, once considered an issue for a
distant future, has moved firmly into the present,” the scientists declared in a major new report assessing the
situation in the United States. Pulse of the People: Americans Are Outliers in Views on Climate Using Weathercasters to
Deliver a Climate Change The campus of Stanford University in Palo Alto, Calif. The decision by trustees to get rid of stock in coalmining companies was a victory for a rapidly growing student-led divestment movement.Stanford to Purge $18 Billion Endowment
of Coal “Summers are longer and hotter, and extended periods of unusual heat last longer than any living
American has ever experienced,” the report continued. “Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier
downpours. People are seeing changes in the length and severity of seasonal allergies, the plant varieties that thrive in their gardens,
and the kinds of birds they see in any particular month in their neighborhoods.”The report is the latest in a series of dire
warnings about how the effects of global warming that had been long foreseen by climate scientists are
already affecting the planet. Its region-by-region documentation of changes occurring in the United States, and of
future risks, makes clear that few places will be unscathed — and some, like northerly areas, are feeling the effects
at a swifter pace than had been expected. Alaska in particular is hard hit. Glaciers and frozen ground in that state are
melting, storms are eating away at fragile coastlines no longer protected by winter sea ice, and entire communities are
having to flee inland — a precursor of the large-scale changes the report foresees for the rest of the United States.
Ext – Turn – Sequestration
Turn – Methane hydrate mining solves warming – it can be used to
sequester CO2 and ice structures limit the risk of leakage
LaMonica 2013 [Martin Lamonica Lamonica is an editor of the MIT technology review of Will
Methane Hydrates Fuel another gas boom? http://www.technologyreview.com/news/512506/willmethane-hydrates-fuel-another-gas-boom/
Last week, Boswell and his colleagues presented data from a production test completed last spring where methane flowed for six
weeks from a formation below permafrost in the North Slope of Alaska. In this test, done in conjunction with JOGMEC and
ConocoPhilips, carbon dioxide
was injected into a sandy deposit and exchanged with the methane. Although
still experimental, the method could effectively sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide and remove natural
gas, a relatively clean-burning fossil fuel. The carbon dioxide also plays a role in “liberating” the methane,
but understanding how efficiently and how quickly the reaction occurs needs further study, Boswell says. Potential environmental
hazards are being examined as well. One concern is that removing gas will cause changes in the geology, for example, causing
sediments to compact or seafloor topography to change. Part of Japan’s methane hydrate research in the years ahead will involve
gathering data on how drilling affects the surrounding environment. What’s more, methane is a potent greenhouse gas. And just as
in conventional natural gas drilling, a broken well can cause the release of the gas. But drilling in a
methane hydrate formation can actually be less risky than other forms of gas drilling, Boswell says. The
flow of gas, which is trapped in the cage-like hydrates, will stop naturally once pumping stops, he says.
CO2 Injection solves carbon sequestration
Anderson, 2014 – BBC Business Reporter [Richard 16 April 2014 Last updated at 19:02 ET
Methane hydrate: Dirty fuel or energy saviour? BBC News http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610
Accessed June 20, 2014] TA
But if resources are exploited, as seems likely at some point in the future, the implications for the environment
could be widespread. It is not all bad news - one way to free the methane trapped in ice is pumping in CO2 to
replace it, which could provide an answer to the as yet unsolved question of how to store this greenhouse
gas safely.
Carbon sequestration is the most effective mitigation for climate change
Abdul 2013 - ICAR Research Institute [Haris, , East Region, Chhabra, Vandna Biswas, Sandeep,
Agricultural Reviews, CARBON SEQUESTRATION FOR MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE - A
REVIEW, Ebsco, Accessed Jun24 2014], LS
Reducing COg concentration in the atmosphere by enhancing the rates of removal of the atmospheric CO2
through carbon sequestration is considered as one of the best climate change mitigation strategy . Carbon
sequestration is tbe issue of international interest due to its potential impact on agriculture and climate
change. Oceans, soils, geological formations, mangroves, bogs, agriculture and agro forestry serves carbon sequesters.
Although intensive agriculture is a source of carbon emission, it can be converted to sink with proper management. Policies to
reduce climate change using natural ecosystems to sequester and store carbon should be accompanied by
technological solutions to further reduce the impacts of climate change.
Carbon sequestration in hydrates can reduce CO2 emission—experiments
proves
Fournaison 2005-- Director of Research Unit at Irstea (Laurence, Imen Chattia, Anthony
Delahayea, Jean-Pierre Petitetb, “Benefits and drawbacks of clathrate hydrates: a review of their areas of
interest”, Energy Conversion and Management,
http://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:36057466, INIS, Accessed 29 June 2014) DZ
An original perspective proposed by other authors [40, 41] would consist in swapping methane, encased
in hydrate, with carbon dioxide and, thus, limiting disturbances in underwater layers and preventing suboceanic landslides. About 64% of the enhanced greenhouse gas effect is due to carbon dioxide emissions
[42], of which more than 6 Gt/yr are attributed to anthropogenic activities [43]. Given that
the greenhouse effect is
undeniably responsible for climate warming [44], reducing the quantities of CO2 released into the
atmosphere is a major environmental challenge. Carbon dioxide partially taken up by various methods
such as chemical absorption in amines [43, 45, 46,] or sequestration in geological media and oceans [47, 48].
Such can be performed by releasing the CO2 in water using a process adapted to the injection depth [49,
50]. Down to 400 m (shallow sea), gaseous CO2 is injected and then trapped by dissolution in the water [51]. Between 1000 and
2000 m (deep water), CO2 in the liquid state diffuses and also dissolves in the ocean [52]. In addition, CO2 hydrates can
appear from 500 to 900 m in CO2-rich seawater [50] and then sink, owing to their density [53], towards
the deep sea bottom where they stabilize in the long term [6, 54]. Marine carbon dioxide sequestration is
presently at an experimental stage, implying further research on CO2 solubility [50, 55–57], CO2-hydrate
formation kinetics [6, 53, 58, 59] and CO2 hydrate stability [54, 59, 60]
Methane hydrate mining solves warming by increasing carbon
sequestration
Fournaison 2005-- Director of Research Unit at Irstea (Laurence, Imen Chattia, Anthony
Delahayea, Jean-Pierre Petitetb, “Benefits and drawbacks of clathrate hydrates: a review of their areas of
interest”, Energy Conversion and Management,
http://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:36057466, INIS, Accessed 29 June 2014) DZ
Hydrates can be a useful means of partially mitigating climate change thanks to carbon dioxide
sequestration in submarine areas. This capacity to capture carbon dioxide may also be used in the
separation process used for flue gases. This storage capacity is even more relevant for methane and
facilitates natural gas storage and transportation. Finally, cold storage using hydrates as phase change materials is a
promising application in secondary refrigeration thanks to the large amount of energy of hydrate dissociation (higher than the
melting heat of ice). In a nutshell, even if many studies focus on the disturbing aspect of hydrates, the positive
prospects are numerous and encouraging.
Methane hydrates solve warming by sequestering CO2
Anderson 14 – BBC News Business Reporter (Richard BBC News, Published April 16, 2014
“Methane Hydrate: Dirty Fuel or Energy Saviour” http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610) RF
It is not all bad news - one way to free the methane trapped in ice is pumping in CO2 to replace it, which
could provide an answer to the as yet unsolved question of how to store this greenhouse gas safely.
CO2 injection in hydrates solves warming and energy shortages – it
provides abundant clean energy and sequesters CO2. More study is key to
development
Janicki, 2011 - Fraunhofer Institute for Environmental, Safety, and Energy
Technology [Georg, with Stefan Schlu ̈ter, Torsten Hennig, Hildegard Lyko, and Go ̈rge Deerberg
Journal of Geological Research Volume 2011, Article ID 462156, Simulation of Methane Recovery from
Gas Hydrates Combined with Storing Carbon Dioxide as Hydrates Ebsco, Accessed June 25, KAF]
In the medium term, gas hydrate reservoirs in the subsea sediment are intended as deposits for carbon
dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel consumption. This idea is supported by the thermodynamics of CO2 and
methane (CH4) hydrates and the fact that CO2 hydrates are more stable than CH4 hydrates in a certain PT range. The potential of producing methane by depressurization and/or by injecting CO2 is numerically
studied in the frame of the SUGAR project. Simulations are performed with the commercial code STARS from CMG and the newly
developed code HyReS (hydrate reservoir simulator) especially designed for hydrate processing in the subsea sediment. HyReS is a
nonisothermal multiphase Darcy flow model combined with thermodynamics and rate kinetics suitable for gas hydrate calculations.
Two scenarios are considered: the depressurization of an area 1,000 m in diameter and a one/two-well scenario with CO2 injection.
Realistic rates for injection and production are estimated, and limitations of these processes are discussed. 1. Introduction Gas
hydrates are ice-like solid compounds of water and gas molecules (clathrates) which are stable at low temperature and elevated
pressure [1]. The water molecules build out cages by hydrogen bonds in which gas molecules are embed- ded. Generally, gas
hydrates can contain different guest mole- cules in different cages, depending on their sizes and the availability of guest molecules
under given thermodynamic conditions, but methane is the prevalent gas in natural gas hydrates. The exploitation of natural
gas hydrate deposits that are known in various permafrost regions and submarine sediments all over the world
is in the focus of several research groups because the amount of methane to be recovered could overcome
future energy shortages. The greenhouse gas CO2 is able to build hydrates too, and these hydrates are
thermo-dynamically more stable than methane hydrates. The possibility to destabilize methane hydrate
by injecting CO2 as pressurized gas or in liquid form was verified in several small- scale experiments
carried out by different research groups (see [2–6]). Thus, the combination of both processes offers the
opportunity to open up new energy resources as well as to combat climate change by reducing CO2
emissions. However, the technical realization of this combination of processes has to face various challenges. Besides the technical
and economic efforts for drilling in submarine sediments or in deep layers in permafrost regions, these challenges concern the
reaction kinetics and transport resistances within the sediments in which methane hydrates are embedded in natural deposits.
Ext – Turn - Research
More Research Is Needed Into Methane Hydrates To Understand Their Role
In Global Climate Cycles
National Energy Technology Laboratory; 2003 (All About Hydrates, July 17, accessed
10/07/03) http://www.netl.doe.gov/scng/hydrate/about-hydrates/about_hydrates.htm
However, while those investigations continue,
important questions about the role of methane hydrate in the
environment must be addressed. Recent studies clearly indicate that the global methane hydrate
reservoir is in constant flux, absorbing and releasing methane in response to ongoing natural
changes in the environment. The implications of this vast, dynamic, and previously unnoticed
methane reservoir on the global carbon cycle, long-term climate, seafloor stability, and future
energy policy are a critical part of the U.S. Government's new National Methane Hydrate R&D
Program.The various links above provide more detailed technical information on our understanding of methane hydrate. The
topics include: 1) the history of man's understanding of hydrate; 2) the current understanding of hydrate formation, structure, and
physical/chemical properties; 3) the global distribution of hydrate and what has been learned at the most well-studied localities; and
4) the key R&D issues posed by the recent recognition of this global methane occurrence. Please see our National R&D Program
pages for information on the work currently being done to better understand the nature, environmental roles, and economic
potential of this abundant and surprising compound.
Researching methane hydrates is key to solving warming- it can develop
alternatives to coal and oil emissions
Chung-Chieng, 2005 - Climate Studies Team Leader [A. Lai, Dietrich, Bowman, Climate
Studies Team Leader, Technical Staff Member, Earth & Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos
National Lab., Los Alamos, NM, Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate, Topics in
Catalysis, March 1, 2005, Ebsco June 26, 2014]KF
We recommend that intensified geophysical investi- gations (including research in atmospheric, ocean
and biogeochemical modeling) be funded. Research that focuses on the characterization of the chemical
structure of methane hydrate and CO2 hydrate and research that focuses on the marine ecosystem, engineering
efficiency and waste management are also needed. So, we suggest that an important goal for the climate/
environmental/energy research communities is very clear: to expedite research and develop a set of
fundamental designs for the safe mining of methane hydrates to produce fuel. If the abundant MH
deposits were mined and substituted for that oil and coal currently used for energy generation, it might be
possible to reduce or delay a major energy crisis, mitigate global climate change and reap the economic
benefits of reduced energy imports.
Methane hydrates can sequester carbon dioxide – more research is needed
Pellenbarg and Max ’14- , At Naval Research Laboratory and MDS Research [Gas
Hydrates: From Laboratory Curiosity to Potential Global Powerhouse, 5/26/14,
file:///C:/Users/k/Documents/MNDI%202014/Gas%20Hydrates%20From%20Laboratory%20Curiosity.
pdf, accessed 6/25/14, Proquest, KC]
The geopolitical implications of energy independence for Japan or India and for their relations with the rest of the world are
staggering. Both energy security concerns and the prospect of abundant new energy resources are driving the current interest in
methane hydrate. Petroleum fuel currently dominates and underpins global economic activity. Petroleum, however, is a finite
resource. Further, there are clear political problems associated with the distribution of petroleum resources on the planet. Because
of the world abundance of methane and the natural limitations to petroleum, a methane-based economy
will inevitably supplant the current petroleum-based economy. The only question is when and where will it develop
first. Methane as a fuel offers clear advantages over oil or coal: immense resource potential, ease of transport via in-place
distribution infrastructure, less carbon dioxide release per unit volume burned, no release of sulfur or nitrogen oxides, and so forth.
Further, methane hydrate serves as an analog for other gas hydrate species. Carbon dioxide hydrate is increasingly
examined as a potential storage medium for carbon dioxide produced by combustion of fossil fuels in
general. Studies are examining the feasibility of using liquid carbon dioxide or the corresponding hydrate
to sequester carbon dioxide captured from fossil fuel combustion. U.S. Navy scientists have defined the concept of
using methane hydrate as the basis of a new technology to desalinate seawater (U.S. Patent 5,873,262 issued 27 Feb 1999). Clearly,
the future of methane hydrate research and development is full of promise. Only within the past 20 years has the
scientific community come to realize that there is in fact enough methane on the planet to underpin a gasbased economy. Immense reservoirs of methane occur as gas hydrate, newly recognized deposits of which are much more
uniformly scattered around the globe. The Middle East has no monopoly on gas hydrate deposits as it does for petroleum supplies.
Hydrate deposits potentially large enough to allow for energy independence occur in the EEZs of at least two major industrial
nations, the USA and Japan, and are likely to occur adjacent to most coastal oceanic states. There is clear consensus that there is a
lot of methane as hydrate in the sediments of the world ocean.
Ext – Turn – Cleaner Gas
Natural gas solves global warming – it reduces carbon emissions and is
much cleaner
Schumann, 12 – Prof. of Chemical Engineering at University of Kansas [Jon,
Vossoughi, Shapour, University of Kansas Dept. of Chemical Engineering, May 15th 2012, Ebsco,
Accessed Jun24 2014], LS
Natural gas refers to naturally occurring hydrocarbons found trapped underground. It occurs as mixtures of hydrocarbons of
various molecular weights (methane, butane, etc.) and was formed millions of years ago from fossilized organic matter. Natural gas
can be used as a cleaner burning alternative to other fossil fuels for power generation. It produces half the
amount of carbon dioxide as coal and roughly 25 percent less carbon dioxide than gasoline . Consequently, it
is becoming more popular in today’s environmentally conscious world. Worldwide demand is expected to
increase at twice the rate of oil until at least 2030. Interest in natural gas is at an all-time high in the United
States. Only recently have we learned about the vast unconventional resources that exist within our borders. The implications
for reduced dependence on foreign sources of gas are promising for the future of this country . There may be
sufficient resources within the United States to allow this energy source to thrive for many years to come. Natural gas can be divided
into two categories: 1) Conventional gas which is found in reservoirs where the gas has been trapped by a layer of rock. Usually
conventional gas refers to that which exists on top of crude oil reservoirs. Conventional gas is relatively easy to extract because once
a well is drilled, the gas will naturally flow to the surface. 2) Unconventional gas which is referred to gas trapped in formations where
it cannot easily flow such as in shale formations; or, gas that is tightly attached to the surface of the surrounding rock such as in coalbed seams. Unconventional gas is more difficult to extract because it often requires fracturing the rock formation to allow the gas to
accumulate in sufficient quantities and flow out of the well. There are six types of unconventional gas resources: shale gas, coal-bed
methane, deep gas, tight gas, geopressurized zones, and methane hydrates. Each of these unconventional gas resources within the
United States will be examined with a focus on their development and the unique challenges facing them.
Current Energy sources cause global warming
Chung-Chieng, 2005 - Climate Studies Team Leader [A. Lai, Dietrich, Bowman, Climate
Studies Team Leader, Technical Staff Member, Earth & Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos
National Lab., Los Alamos, NM, Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate, Topics in
Catalysis, March 1, 2005, Ebsco June 26, 2014]KF
Currently, the world
burns 25–30 billion barrels of oil and about an equivalent amount of other fossil fuels
per year [1]. Thus, about 5.5 billion tons of carbon (Gt-C) in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) is released into
the atmosphere per year. However, only 3.5 Gt-C of CO2 is accounted for in the atmosphere; the rest is assumed sequestered
in the ocean and in the biosphere [2]. The Earth’s future climate is believed to tie closely to the concentration of
atmospheric CO2. Over the last 200 years, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has monotonically increased (after filtering out
variations due to the annual cycle of photosynthesis) from 280 parts-per-million-by-volume (ppmv) at year 1800 to 370 ppmv at
year 2000! [1]. Energy generation through current technologies (i.e., burning coal and oil with its concomitant release of
CO2 into the atmosphere) not only worsens the global climate prospects but also pollutes the atmosphere.
Alternatives to fossil fuel combustion, e.g. nuclear energy, hydrologic energy and wind energy supply about 5, 4 and 1% of the
world’s electricity, respectively. The world’s first commercial production of gas from methane hydrate site has a history of almost 20
years. It is located at Messoyakh, Russia, where the methane hydrate is mined directly from the permafrost.
Methane hydrates virtually eliminate air pollution – they are clean burning
Chung-Chieng, 2005 - Climate Studies Team Leader [A. Lai, Dietrich, Bowman, Climate
Studies Team Leader, Technical Staff Member, Earth & Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos
National Lab., Los Alamos, NM, Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate, Topics in
Catalysis, March 1, 2005, Ebsco June 26, 2014]KF
Methane hydrate is an ideal fuel that burns and produces CO2 but no other air pollutants. The amount of
methane that is trapped in hydrate is perhaps 3000 times the amount contained in the atmosphere. The
chemical energy stored in all known methane hydrate deposits is estimated to be twice that of all other
fossil fuels combined. Thus, it is, in principle, most desirable to develop the technology to exploit this
enormous energy source!
Methane Hydrates reduce carbon emissions, analysis finds
Lee, 2001- Prof. at the Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering at the
University of Pittsburgh [Sang-Yong, Gerald D. Holder, Department of Chemical and Petroleum
Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Methane hydrates potential as a future energy source, Fuel
Processing Technology, June 2001,
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037838200100145X, Acc. Jun. 28 2014] LS
Natural gas, primarily methane,
is an excellent fuel for combustion for a number of reasons. Methane produces
less carbon dioxide per mole than any other fossil fuel when it is used as fuel. Thus, it can reduce the amount of
anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide gas, which may cause a greenhouse effect. In addition, the amount
of fossil fuel in hydrate form is approximately twice as large as in all other fossil fuels combined . Thus,
methane gas hydrate has the potential to be widely used as a new energy source.
Ext – Turn – Renewable Bridge
Methane hydrates are key to renewables – natural gas provides a transition
to clean energies
Street 2008 -attorney advisor, Office of the General Counsel, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration [Thomas, fall, Marine Methane Hydrates as Possible Energy Source,
http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/pqrl/docview/207665286/D6A77AEF34804E5CPQ/1?a
ccountid=14667, accessed6/24/14]
Approximately 21 percent of U.S. electric supply is generated by natural gas, an energy source that is among the "cleanest" of all
fossil fuels and one that is being increasingly adopted both domestically and internationally. Natural gas is seen by many as
a
necessary component of any transition to a national grid relying, at least in part, on renewable energy,
especially as its combustion results in approximately half of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of coal.
Natural gas, a hydrocarbon, is actually a conglomeration of several constituent gases, largely methane, but also ethane, propane,
butane, and carbon dioxide, among others, and is typically found in oil fields, natural gas fields, and coal beds. The majority of the
natural gas used in the United States (approximately 80 percent) is domestically produced, with the balance imported. Of the 20
percent that is imported, approximately 85 percent comes from Mexico and Canada through pipeline, with the rest imported as
liquefied natural gas (LNG) by ship. Although the United States has substantial-but depleting-reserves of natural gas, domestic
production peaked, and experts predict that increased imports will be necessary to address growing domestic shortfalls. Due to
substantially increasing global demand from China, India, and the countries of Europe, and with reserves
estimated only to last until mid-century at present rates of consumption, there is growing concern that
natural gas reserves may eventually run short, prompting some to assess possible substitutes . It has been
noted that the coastal zone and oceans possess a potentially staggering amount of unconventional natural gas
resources in the form of methane hydrates (located in near-freezing, deep water), a global hydrocarbon resource
estimated to contain twice the equivalent energy potential of all fossil fuels on the Earth .
Ext – Non-Unique – Alt Causes
Methane warming is inevitable – industrial and agricultural alternate
causes
EPA, 2014 – U.S. government agency [Overview of greenhouse gas Methane Emissions
Methane (CH4) is the second most prevalent greenhouse gas emitted in the United States from human activities. In 2012, CH4
accounted for about 9% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Methane is emitted by natural sources
such as wetlands, as well as human activities such as leakage from natural gas systems and the raising of livestock.
Natural processes in soil and chemical reactions in the atmosphere help remove CH4 from the atmosphere. Methane's lifetime in the
atmosphere is much shorter than carbon dioxide (CO2), but CH4 is more efficient at trapping radiation than CO2. Pound for
pound, the comparative impact of CH4 on climate change is over 20 times greater than CO2 over a 100year period. Globally, over 60% of total CH4 emissions come from human activities. [1] Methane is emitted from industry,
agriculture, and waste management activities, described below. Industry. Natural gas and petroleum systems are the largest
source of CH4 emissions from industry in the United States. Methane is the primary component of natural gas. Some CH4 is emitted
to the atmosphere during the production, processing, storage, transmission, and distribution of natural gas. Because gas is often
found alongside petroleum, the production, refinement, transportation, and storage of crude oil is also a source of CH4 emissions.
For more information, see the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks sections on Natural Gas Systems and
Petroleum Systems. Agriculture. Domestic livestock such as cattle, buffalo, sheep, goats, and camels produce
large amounts of CH4 as part of their normal digestive process. Also, when animals' manure is stored or
managed in lagoons or holding tanks, CH4 is produced. Because humans raise these animals for food, the emissions
are considered human-related. Globally, the Agriculture sector is the primary source of CH4 emissions . For more
information, see the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Agriculture chapter.