A THORPEX Pacific Predictability
Experiment:
User and Social Science Research
Perspectives
Rebecca E. Morss
National Center for Atmospheric Research
(Thanks to: Jeff Lazo, Brian Mills, Mary Altalo,
and others)
THORPEX Societal and Economic
Application (SEA) Research Ideas
•
•
•
•
Identify high-impact weather forecasts
Assess the impact of improved forecasts
Develop advanced forecast verification measures
Estimate net benefits of improved forecast
systems
• Develop new user-specific weather products
• Facilitate transfer of THORPEX advances to
forecast centres throughout the world
• Demonstration projects
Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts
• “High-impact weather forecasts are defined by
their effect on society, the economy, and the
natural environment”
– (Improved) weather forecasts that can most
benefit society
– Defined societally, not meteorologically
(although “forecasts of high-impact weather”
are likely a subset)
• More specific definition needed because it
underlies SEA and other THORPEX research
Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts
• Regionally, inventory and synthesize user
needs for improved forecasts
Examples of Users
24 March 2004
Asian Regional Committee, Seoul, Korea
7
(From: THORPEX International Science Plan)
Identify High-Impact Weather Forecasts
• Regionally, inventory and synthesize user
needs for improved forecasts
– e.g., in western U.S.: water, irrigation, and
power
• Compare “busts” and “good” forecasts from
modeler, forecaster, and user perspectives
• Examine indicators of weather-related risk/
opportunity and economic impacts for different
users/sectors
Assess the Impact of Improved Forecasts
• Estimate value of current/improved forecasts via:
– Modeling of user decisions
(idealized implementation: cost/loss models)
– Experimental economics (idealized → realistic)
– Non-market valuation
– Analysis of market data
– Non-economic methodologies
• Need baseline knowledge on socioeconomic
impact of current forecast systems
Develop Advanced Forecast Verification
Measures
• User-relevant verification: Tie verification
measures to societal impacts measures
– For specific users or user sectors
– General, integrated measures
• Verification of probabilistic forecasts
• Verification of spatial/temporal characteristics
of forecasted events
THORPEX Societal and Economic
Application (SEA) Themes
•
•
•
•
Identify high-impact weather forecasts
Assess the impact of improved forecasts
Develop advanced forecast verification measures
Estimate net benefits of improved forecast
systems
• Develop new user-specific weather products
• Facilitate transfer of THORPEX advances to
forecast centres throughout the world
Estimate Net Benefits = Costs  Benefits
Costs
Benefits
Inputs
Use
(e.g., obs, DA)
Forecasts
Estimate Net Benefits = Costs  Benefits
Costs
Analyze
Costs
Benefits
Inputs
Use
Assess /
Value
Impacts
(e.g., obs, DA)
Other THORPEX
Research
Forecasts
Verify
Frame / Synthesize  Evaluate proposed improvements
Estimate Net Benefits of Improved
Forecast Systems
• Basic economic/policy framework exists
• Combine results from
– THORPEX OSSEs and field campaigns, using
appropriate verification measures
– THORPEX cost analyses
– Estimates of impacts of improved forecasts
• Need baseline knowledge on benefits and costs of
current systems
• Results help justify (motivate) programs and set
priorities
Develop New Weather Products
• Collaborate with public and private sector users to
develop new weather products:
– About user-relevant variables (including risk and
uncertainty), at user-relevant space and time scales
– At longer lead times
Example: irrigation, water, and power in Northwest
• Through research & development in: ensemble
prediction, ensemble post-processing, decision
support tools, user needs, current processes
• Interest in studying and improving communication
of forecast uncertainty, using quantitative and
qualitative methods
Facilitate Transfer to Forecast Centres
Throughout the World
• Build local/regional THORPEX-related capacity
among international forecast providers and users,
emphasizing developing countries
• By building partnerships through WMO and
existing centers, based on regional and local needs
• Possible foci for Pacific Experiment
– Indigenous populations in Arctic
– GLOBE program: Community (primarily K-12)
data collection and capacity building
Demonstration Projects
• Conduct SEA demonstration projects with each
major THORPEX field campaign
• Multiple possible foci – develop in conjunction
with overall project priorities
– International Polar Year (IPY), 2007-8
• Transportation and energy production in Alaska
• Indigenous populations
– 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver
Issues / Questions
• Develop SEA component in conjunction with
other components
• Areas to emphasize or deemphasize for Pacific
Predictability Experiment?
• Need to coordinate between SEA and other
program components, operational forecasting
• Who? Funding? How to draw in new expertise
and leverage off existing work?
• Working group / conference call? If you are
interested, let me know (morss@ucar.edu)