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Universities in the 21st Century:
Peril and Promise in a New Age
Social Work Distance Education Conference
April 15-17, 2015
George L. Mehaffy
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In fifty years, if not much sooner,
half of the roughly 4,500 colleges
and universities now operating in the
United States will have ceased to
exist.
“The End of the University as We Know It.” Nathan Harden.
The American Interest. January/February 2013.
http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1352
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Great reputation,
loyal alumni,
beautiful campus,
$ 84 million endowment
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What Happened?
• Location: Rural
• Type of School: Women’s College
• Students: Competition for Shrinking Base of Students
• Costs: Rising Costs
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Technology
Changes
Everything
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Think about the impact of technology:
On journalism…
On photography
On the music business…
On the book publishing/selling
business…
The Long Tail.
Chris Anderson (Hyperion, 2006)
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One of technology’s impact on business:
store closings
Abercrombie and Fitch 180
Barnes and Noble
223
Aeropostale
175
JC Penney
33
Radio Shack
1,100
Staples
225
Sears
500
Family Dollar
370
By 2015
Over 9 years
Next few years
By mid-2014
Just announced
By 2015
Going Forward
2014
http://247wallst.com/special-report/2014/03/12/retailers-closing-the-most-stores/
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Robert Darnton
Four Great Information Ages
•
Invention of Writing, Mesopotamia, 4,000 BC
•
Moveable type
•
Mass steam-powered presses, Industrial Age
•
Internet, after 1993
Now You See It: Attention and the Future of Learning. Cathy N. Davidson,
http://chancellor.ucdavis.edu/local_resources/pdfs/colloquium-1112/ccvol2_cathy_davidson.pdf
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Nine (9) Challenges
to
Public Higher Education
The Meta-Problems
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1. State Expenditures for Higher Education
(as a percentage of all expenditures: local, state, federal,
personal)
1975: 60%
2010: 34%
But huge variations in states: From 1980 to 2011Colorado
Minnesota
North Dakota
Wyoming
69 % decline
56 % decline
1 % increase
3 % increase
Based on the trends since 1980, average state fiscal
support for higher education will reach zero by 2059.
State Funding: A Race to the Bottom. Thomas G. Mortenson
http://www.acenet.edu/the-presidency/columns-and-features/Pages/state-funding-a-race-to-thebottom.aspx
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2. Cost Model
300%
The unsustainable funding trends at public 4year institutions, 1988-2008
250%
Price/Cost
gap
200%
150%
Spending v.
State approps
100%
50%
0%
1988
1990
1992
1994
Net tuition/FTE
1996
1998
2000
State Appropriations/FTE
2002
E&R/FTE
2004
2006
CPI Index
Source: Delta Cost Project IPEDS database, 1987-2008, 22-year matched set. Notes: Percent change since 1988
based on unadjusted dollar amounts. From the Delta project. Courtesy Jane Wellman
2008
350%
300%
Cumulative growth since 1988
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The Rising Cost of College, 1988-2008 (based
on increases in current dollar amounts)
250%
Public Four-Year
Private Four-Year
Public Two-Year
200%
Median Family Income
CPI-U
150%
Prescription Drugs
Household Energy
100%
New Vehicle
50%
0%
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Sources: College Board, “Trends in College Pricing, 2008”; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009, www.bls.gov ; U.S. Census,
Current Population Study-ASEC, 2008. From the Delta Project. Courtesy Jane Wellman
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Simple Numbers:
Median inflation-adjusted
household income, 2006 – 2011
Tuition at public four year
Institutions, 2006 – 2011
7%
18%
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/01/opinion/my-valuable-cheap-collegedegree.html?_r=0
Public higher education – an historic threshold:
Students about to pay a higher percentage than
the state. 2012 – net tuition 47% of public
colleges’ costs.
http://chronicle.com/article/StudentsStates-Near-a/137709/
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3. Business Model
Higher education is a set of cross-subsidies:
graduate education subsidized by undergraduate;
upper division subsidized by lower division
Jane Wellman, Delta Project
http://www.deltacostproject.org/
We also have cross-subsidies by disciplines.
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Credit Hour Distribution and Average
Instructional Costs
Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study
(SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois)
% of all credits
taken
Lower Division 36%
% of total
spending on
instruction
23%
Avg weighted
cost/credit
1.00
Upper Division 48%
44%
1.42
Grad 1
12%
23%
2.88
Grad 2
4%
9%
4.00
100%
100%
1.55
SHEEO, 2010
Courtesy Jane Wellman
35
31.2
30
29.7
24.8
25
Percentage of Dropouts
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Percentage of All Dropouts by
Cumulative Months Enrolled, Beginning
Postsecondary Students 2003-04
60% of attrition occurs in lower
Division courses .. Where spending per student is lowest
20
15
11.3
10
5
2.8
0.2
0
1 to 12
13 to 24
25 to 36
37 to 48
49 to 60
61 to 72
Total Months Enrolled Before Leaving Higher Education (Out of 72 Possible)
NCES, BPS, undergraduates only
Courtesy Jane Wellman
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Moody’s Inventor Services
Report January 23, 2012
“Tuition levels are at a tipping point”
Higher education must innovate to remain viable
•
•
•
•
•
Collaborations between colleges
More centralized management
More efficient use of facilities
Reduction in number of tenured faculty
Geographic and demographic expansion of
course offerings
http://chronicle.com/article/article-content/130434/
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4. Evidence of Success
2006 American Institutes for Research (AIR)
20% of U.S. college graduates only have basic
quantitative literacy skills…
…unable to estimate if their car has enough
gasoline to get to the next gas station.
More than 50% of students at 4-yr colleges lack the
skills to perform complex literacy tasks, such as
comparing credit card offers or summarizing the
arguments of newspaper editorials.
http://www.air.org/news/index.cfm?fa=viewContent&content_id=445
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Academically Adrift
R. Arum & J. Roksa
Study has indicated that 36% of students did not
show any significant improvement in Collegiate
Learning Assessment (CLA) performance over
four years.
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Graduation Rate, 2010 Study
63.2% of 2003 students who began at a
4 -year college earned bachelor’s degree by
2009.
Beginning Postsecondary Survey, National Center for Education
Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.
http://www.quickanded.com/2010/12/u-s-college-graduation-ratestays-pretty-much-exactly-the-same.html
New Study 2012
Full time students: 75% in 6 years
Part time students: 32% in 6 years
New National Tally of College Completion Tries to Count All Students.
http://chronicle.com/article/New-National-Tally-of-College/135792/
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5. Public Opinion
*** 60% (six out of ten) of Americans in 2010 said
that colleges today … focused more on the bottom
line than on the educational experience of
students.
http://www.highereducation.org/reports/squeeze_play_10/squeeze_play_10.p
df
*** In a recent survey, 80% said that at many
colleges, education received is not worth the
cost.
Time Magazine, October 29, 2012, p. 37
*** Lumina survey in November/December
2012, three quarters (3/4) of respondents said
that college is unaffordable.
http://chronicle.com/article/Americans-Value-Higher/137023/
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6. The Role of Venture Capitalists
New Start-Ups
Udacity
Udemy
University Now
Coursebook
Coursekit
Courseload
CourseRank
http://chronicle.com/article/A-Boom-Time-for-Education/131229/
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7. Debt
Debt
Student loan debt exceeded credit card debt for the
first time last year. More than $ one trillion dollars
Seven in 10 college seniors (71%) who graduated last
year had student loan debt, with an average of
$29,400 per borrower.
http://projectonstudentdebt.org/state_by_state-data.php
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8. Inequality
1996 - 2012, public colleges and universities
gave a declining portion of grants—as
measured by both the number of grants and
the dollar amounts—to students in the lowest
quartile of family income.
The task of educating low-income students
has increasingly fallen to community
colleges and for-profit colleges.
http://chronicle.com/article/Public-Colleges-Quest-for/141541/
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Who Receives Merit Aid?
1 in 5 students from families
with income over $ 250,000
1 in 10 students from families
with income under $ 30,000
Percentage of 24 Year Olds with College Degrees
1970
Top-income quartile:
Bottom-income quartile
40%
6%
2011
70%
10%
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/magazine/freebies-for-the-rich.html?_r=0
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“The higher education system is more and more
complicit as a passive agent in the systematic
reproduction of white racial privilege across
generations.
Since 1995, 82 percent of new white enrollments
have gone to the 468 most selective colleges, while
72 percent of new Hispanic enrollment and 68
percent of new African-American enrollment have
gone to the two-year open-access schools.”
http://cew.georgetown.edu/separateandunequal/
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9. Career Preparation
Career Readiness: Colleges are doing a good
job of preparing graduates.
Agree:
Provosts
Business Leaders
96%
11%
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2014/02/26/provosts-businessleaders-disagree-graduates-career-readiness
Employers are in broad agreement on college learning
outcomes for all students, regardless of their chosen field
of study.
All college students should have educational experiences that teach them how to solve
problems with people whose views are different from their own
96%
Students/
total agree
94%
All college students should gain an understanding of democratic institutions and values
87%
Every college student should take courses that build the civic knowledge, skills, and
judgment essential for contributing to our democratic society
86%
85%
86%
Every college student should acquire broad knowledge in the liberal arts and sciences
78%
All college students should gain intercultural skills and an understanding of societies and
countries outside the United States
78%
“Falling Short? College Learning and Career Success.” AAC&U study and presentation.
Hart Research Associates. November/December 2014. Used with permission.
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83%
87%
Employers give college graduates lower scores for
preparedness across learning outcomes than current
students give themselves.
Proportions who believe they/recent college graduates are well prepared in each area*
Working effectively with
others in teams
Staying current on
technologies
Ethical judgment and
decisionmaking
Locating, organizing,
evaluating information
Oral communication
Working with numbers/
statistics
Written communication
Critical/analytical thinking
Being innovative/creative
30
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Are we vulnerable to disruption?
Christensen and Eyring argue that disruption
comes from cheaper and simpler technologies
that are initially of lower quality. Over time, the
simpler and cheaper technology improves to a
point that it displaces the incumbent.
The Innovative University.
Clayton Christensen and
Henry J. Eyring. 2011
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Our Critical Vulnerability:
The College Degree
The college degree is a proxy for
student ability
Digital badges, e-portfolios, and
competency credentials
Watch “LinkedIn” in the years ahead
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Clay Shirky ---
“The biggest threat those of us
working in colleges and universities
face isn’t video lectures or online
tests. It’s the fact that we live in
institutions perfectly adapted to an
environment that no longer exists.”
http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2014/01/
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The greatest challenge to our
survival and success is our
inability and/or unwillingness to
change.
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What might a
st
21 century university
look like?
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Core Commitments
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Commitment to Access
Mission Statement: Arizona State University
“measured not by who we exclude, but rather
by who we include and how they succeed”
“I don’t think the taxpayers of Florida voted to tax
themselves to build a university that their children
could not attend.”
John Hitt, President
The University of Central Florida (UCF)
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A commitment to ACCESS: Multiple entry
points
Make every effort to get students into the
university:
• early college programs in high school
• summer preparatory academies
• testing in 11th grade and using 12th grade for
remediation, etc.
• community college pathways
And then make sure they succeed!
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Commitment to Student Success
A set of
studies by
AASCU, Ed
Trust, and the
National
Association
of System
Heads
(NASH)
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Commitment to Reducing Costs
• Time to Completion
• 120 hours for all majors
• Reducing bottlenecks in completion
• Charging out-of-state for 30+ credits
beyond graduation requirements
• Intrusive advising and early remediation
• Flat rate for summer courses
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Commitment to the Right Incentives
What counts in the new university?
What really matters?
What are the metrics of success?
Who gets rewarded / recognized?
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Perverse Incentives
Cardiac surgeons turned away the sickest
and most severely ill patients after adopting
performance-based health report cards.
Health disparities widened among White,
Black, and Hispanic patients after introducing
physician report cards.
http://www.learningoutcomesassessment.org/documents/HillmanViewpoint.pdf
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Commitment to Rethinking
Status and Prestige
The winners will be those institutions that can define
themselves and find the unique value that they
provide.
Most universities are organized around envy
models….in order to pursue higher-ranked
institutions, a university has to become more
selective, more elite, and more disconnected from
its community.
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Rules for the 21st Century
• Define your value
• Forget about who is above you
• Focus on what differentiates you
• Establish your own brand
• Don’t romanticize your weaknesses
• Be open
Abelard to Apple: The Fate of American Colleges and
Universities. Richard A. DeMillo
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Internal Vulnerabilities
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Internal Vulnerabilities
1. Teaching Not Learning
2. Honoring Research Over Teaching
3. Changing Faculty Work/Culture
4. Bifurcated Model of Instruction
5. Faculty-Centric Model
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1. Teaching Not Learning
Our institutions were created as
teaching institutions, instead of
learning institutions.
From Teaching to Learning - A New Paradigm for Undergraduate
Education. Robert B. Barr and John Tagg. Change Magazine.
Nov./.Dec., 1995.
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What Are the Key Learning Outcomes?
What are the key work and citizenship
requirements of the 21st century?
--- Solving unstructured problems
--- Working with new information
--- Carrying out non-routine tasks
--- Complex communication
--- Expert thinking
The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next
Job Market. Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane. 2005
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2. Honoring Research Over Teaching
Comparing Teaching Effectiveness:
Tenure and Non-Tenure Faculty
Academic performance, 8 cohorts of freshmen: 15,662
students, from fall 2001 to fall 2008.
Taking a course from non-tenure track faculty members:
• Increases the likelihood that a student will take another
class in the subject
• Increases the grade earned in that subsequent class
• Produces the greatest gains for weakest students
Northwestern University Study
http://chronicle.com/article/Ad-juncts-Are-Bet-ter/141523/
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3. Changing Faculty Work/Culture
Faculty will work in a networked world --- in a
collaboration of faculty, other experts, and
students across time and space.
“As individuals we will have to abandon
that sense of ourselves as independent
actors and agents.”
Checklist for Change. Robert Zemsky.
http://chronicle.com/article/How-to-Build-a-Faculty-Culture/141887
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The comparison of the work of
physicians and university faculty
members is striking:
“Big Med.” Atul Gawande. The New
Yorker.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/08/13/120813fa_fact_gawand
e?currentPage=all
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In medical education, Darrell Kirch describes
“An Emerging Culture for Health Care”
1.
Hierarchal to Collaborative
2.
Autonomous to Team-Based
3.
Competitive to Service-Based
4.
Individualistic to Mutually Accountable
5.
Expert-centered to Patient-centered
“Higher Education and the Future of American Health Care” by Darrell G.
Kirch, M.D., President and CEO, Association of American Medical Colleges
(Washington, D.C., November 2, 2010).
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4. Bifurcated Model of Instruction
• Split Cognitive and Affective Learning Outcomes
• Divided Academic Affairs and Student Affairs
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5. Faculty-Centric Model
Faculty-Centric Model of Instruction
The Rainbow Loom Story
The Future Role of Faculty
a. Creating Environments
b. Working with Others
c. Conducting Research on
Learning Outcomes
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The Key Issue
How do we educate more
students, with greater
learning outcomes, at lower
costs?
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Focus on Innovative Teaching
(and learning)
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Science Classes
The Carl Wieman Science Education Initiative
Three strategies:
1. Reducing cognitive load
2. Addressing beliefs
3. Stimulating and guiding thinking
http://www.cwsei.ubc.ca/
Experiment produced two times the learning outcomes
Deslauriers, Schelew, and Wieman. Science. 13 May 2011, pp. 862 – 864.
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Flipped Courses
The “flipped” course. You do homework by
watching lectures. You go to class to work on
problems together.
Khan Academy: 2,400 videos covering everything
from arithmetic to physics, finance, and history.
Khan lessons viewed by more than 4 million
people a month.
http://www.khanacademy.org/
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Open Learning Initiative (OLI)
Carnegie Mellon University
http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/index.php
Team: content specialist
cognitive scientist
instructional designer
graphic designer
OLI-Statistics students learned a full semester’s
worth of material in half as much time and
performed as well or better than students learning
from traditional instruction over a full semester.
http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/publications/71-effectivenessstatistics0
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Math Emporiums
“Higher Education’s Silver Bullet” Carol Twigg
http://www.changemag.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/2011/MayJune%202011/math-emporium-full.html
3 Keys To Success:
1. Interactive computer software
2. Personalized on-demand assistance
3. Mandatory Student Participation
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What About Online v. Face-To-Face?
A very old,
very tired debate…..
Only evidence will end this argument
(or maybe not)
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No Significant Difference
355 research reports, summaries and papers that
document no significant differences (NSD) in
student outcomes between alternate modes of
education delivery.
http://www.nosignificantdifference.org/
SRI Study
http://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-basedpractices/finalreport.pdf
Ithaka Study
http://www.sr.ithaka.org/research-publications/interactive-learningonline-public-universities-evidence-randomized-trials
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March 13, 2015
The most methodologically rigorous studies in
this review join a growing list of similarly
rigorous research finding that students in
online and hybrid formats perform about as well
as their counterparts in face-to-face sections. –
Online Learning in Postsecondary Education. A Review of the Empirical
Literature (2013-2014).
See more at: http://sr.ithaka.org/research-publications/online-learningpostsecondary-education#sthash.9gkkpcF0.dpuf
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Massive Study: University of Central Florida
type
n
Fall
09
Spring
10
Summer
10
Fall
10
Spring1 Summer
1
11
Blended
56,316
91
91
91
90
90
94
Online
150,834 87
88
88
88
88
89
Face to
face
665,209 87
88
88
87
87
91
Lecture
Capture
12,050
83
86
84
84
79
87
Student Success by Modality in percentage of grade “C” or higher
…only in very rare cases is the modality of a course
the primary reason for success.
Analytics That Inform the University: Using Data You Already Have.
Charles Dziuban, Patsy Moskal, Thomas Cavanagh, Andre Watts
Journal of Asynchronous Learning Networks, v16 n3 p21-38 Jun 2012
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However, what has been shown is that mode
is not an effective predictor of success or
withdrawal in courses. The strongest
predictor of success is previous academic
performance (Dziuban, 2011). Historically,
students who have done well in courses do
well in any mode; a course is a course.
Charles Dziuban.
Teaching and Learning in an Evolving Educational Environment
Emory University.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwratsdxrH8
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January 2015 Study presented at the
American Economic Association.
Finds that increases in online class size have
no impact on student grades, student
persistence in the course or the likelihood of
students enrolling in future courses.
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2015/01/05/study-finds-noimpact-increasing-class-size-student-outcomes.
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Blended Courses
Blended (hybrid) courses combine fact-to-face
classroom instruction with online learning and
reduced classroom contact hours (reduced seat
time)
Charles Dziuban, Joel Hartman, Patsy Moskal. Blended Learning.
EDUCAUSE. 2004 http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERB0407.pdf
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Broad Course Re-Design
George Kuh High Impact Practices
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
First-year seminars and experiences
Common intellectual experiences
Learning communities
Writing-intensive courses
Collaborative assignments and projects
Undergraduate research
Diversity/global learning
Service learning, community-based learning
Internships
Capstone courses and projects
George Kuh. High-Impact Educational Practices:
What They Are, Who Has Access to Them, and Why They Matter.
AAC&U, 2008.
Ensuring Quality & Taking High Impact Practices to Scale.
AAC&U, 2013.
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And challenge old assumptions: who’s college ready?
A simple example: college algebra
Are students not prepared?
Or are we the ones who are not ready?
Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching:
Statways and Quantways
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Success for At-Risk Students
University of Texas
Chemistry 301 David Laude
Took 50 students with risk indicators: Low SAT, low
income, first generation (200 points lower on SAT)
Separate class, special interventions: Extra class
hours, mentors…and high expectations.
Outcome: Same grades as large section
Higher overall graduation rate 3 years later
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/magazine/who-gets-to-graduate.html
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Then UT did a major intervention. All entering
first year students did a 45 minute online activity,
divided into four groups:
•
•
•
•
Belonging
Mind-Set
Belonging and Mind-Set
Bland
After one semester…
Advantaged students: no difference
Disadvantaged students: Moved from 81% on
track to 86% on track
Who Gets to Graduate? Paul Tough. The New York Times Magazine.
May 15, 2014.
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Prior Learning and Competencies
Prior Learning Assessments:
Council on Adult and Experiential Learning (CAEL)
New Competency-based Degrees:
Southern New Hampshire University
Northern Arizona University
Western Governor’s University
Competency-based Hybrid Degrees
Badges: Khan Academy
Mozilla
Pearson
Certifications: Cisco
CLA
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Personalization
The capacity of software and systems to
tailor course materials, learning processes,
and approaches to the unique
circumstances of individual learners.
• Individual characteristics
Learning style
Memory decay
Pacing
• Obstacles or misunderstandings
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So what are the take-aways
from this set of ideas?
What are some lessons?
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In a world of constant change, it seems
to me that you must:
• Embrace change
• Challenge every practice
• Provide a safe environment for
experimentation and failure
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Focus laser-like attention
on learning outcomes
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The challenge is enormous. We
have a confusion of purposes,
distorted reward structures,
limited success, high costs,
massive inefficiencies, and
profound resistance to change.
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This is not simply a difficult
moment for higher education: it is
the dawn of a very different era. The
institutions that will succeed—
indeed, thrive—in this era will be
those that constantly innovate.
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Cautionary Tale:
The Eastman Kodak Company
Eastman Kodak invented the digital camera, held
much of the intellectual capital (patents) for
photography, and at one point owned 95% of the
photography business in the world.
Ultimately, Eastman Kodak ceased to be a
photography business, and failed,
because it could not adapt to a new world.
Is This Something George Eastman Would Have Done? The Decline and Fall of
Eastman Kodak Company. Paul Snyder. 2013.
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Edward Deming, the great
management guru, said
“It is not necessary to change.”
“Survival is optional.”
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Further Readings:
“Dungeons and Dragons: Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs; Tyrannized by
Mythical Beasts.” Gardner Institute: Academic Affairs/Student Affairs
Conference. Orlando, Florida. January 17, 2014.
“Challenge and Change.” EDUCAUSE Review.
(vol. 47, no. 5. September/ October 2012).
http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/challenge-and-change.
Medieval Models, Agrarian Calendars, and 21st Century Imperatives. Teacher
Scholar. Volume 2: Number 1 (Fall 2010).