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Probability basics Typically found around Chapter 4 of an elementary statistics book. Sources for this information are [JK10] and [Blu4]. [JK10 Chapter 4] 4.1 Motivational chapter example – M&Ms 4.2 Probability of Events – definition, notation, tree diagrams, Venn diagrams, Empirical vs. Theoretical probabilities, 0 ≤ π(π΄) ≤ 1, ∑ π(π΄) = 1, Law of Large Numbers, expressing probabilities as odds for or against 4.3 Conditional Probability – given a table of percentages, given a table of counts, 4.4 Rules of Probability – Complementary events, the Complement Rule π(πππ‘ π΄) = 1 − π(π΄), The General Addition Rule: π(π΄ ππ π΅) = π(π΄) + π(π΅) − π(π΄ πππ π΅) The General Multiplication Rule: π(π΄ πππ π΅) = π(π΄) β π(π΅|π΄) 4.5 Mutually Exclusive Events, π(π΄ πππ π΅) = 0 Special Addition Rule: π(π΄ ππ π΅) = π(π΄) + π(π΅) − 0 And its generalization to three or more events. [Blu4 Chapter 4] 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Sample Spaces and Probability Same, but omits Venn Diagram. Explicit rules π(π΄) = 0 for impossible event And π(π΄) = 1 for a certain event. Brief discussions of “Subjective probability” and “Probability and Risk-Taking”. 4.3 The Addition Rules for Probabilitiy. Definition of Mutually Exclusive events They present both π(π΄ ππ π΅) = π(π΄) + π(π΅) − π(π΄ πππ π΅) and π(π΄ ππ π΅) = π(π΄) + π(π΅) − 0 in this section, but not the multiplication rules. 4.4 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional Probability. Definition of Independent Events. They present both π(π΄ πππ π΅) = π(π΄) β π(π΅) and π(π΄ πππ π΅) = π(π΄) β π(π΅|π΄) in this section. And also π(π΅|π΄) = π(π΄ πππ π΅) . π(π΄) 4.6 Independent events and Dependent Events Special Multiplication Rule π(π΄ πππ π΅) = π(π΄) β π(π΅) And its generalization to three or more events. 4.5 Counting Rules π1 β π2 β π3 β β― β ππ Definition of π! Definition of π ππ permutations Definition of π πΆπ permutations 4.7 Mutually Exclusive and Independence Distinctions, differences, interactions Not sure where the Probability and Counting Rules are done. 4.6 Probability and Counting Rules Not sure where the P(B|A) formula is introduced, but they do use it suddenly in 4.7. 4.7 Summary