Engaging Developing
Countries in
Climate Protection
SEI Next Steps Post-Kyoto
March 30, 2005
Kevin A. Baumert (kbaumert@wri.org)
Climate, Energy, and Pollution Program
World Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org
WRI
Overview
• The importance of developing country
engagement
• Barriers to engagement
• Options for engagement
• Conclusions
WRI
Importance of Developing
Country Engagement
• It is not possible to achieve the UNFCCC
objective without substantial participation
from developing countries
• ~ 80% of world population
• ~ 40% of global economy
• > 50% of world GHG emissions (including all
gases and sources)
WRI
Top 15 GHG Emitters (6 gases, 2000)
1. USA
2. China
3. EU (25)
4. Russia
5. India
6. Japan
7. Brazil
8. Canada
9. Korea (South)
10. Ukraine
11. Mexico
12. Indonesia
13. Australia
14. Iran
15. South Africa
Rest of World
MtC
1,890
1,349
1,287
524
502
364
230
184
143
141
139
135
130
120
113
1,908
% of World
20.6%
14.8%
14.0%
5.7%
5.5%
4.0%
2.5%
2.1%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
20.8%
Industrialized: 52%
Developing: 48%
Source:
CAIT, WRI (2004).
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GHG Emission Projections
Developing countries are expected to grow fastest;
growth in U.S. emission is large.
Millions of Tons of Carbon Equiv.
15,000
57%
Projected emissions, 2025
13,500
12,000
2000 Emissions
10,500
9,000
84%
35%
7,500
6,000
4,500
3,000
1,500
0
World Developed Developing
World
Developing
WRI
GHG Emission Projections
Developing countries are expected to grow fastest;
growth in U.S. emission is large.
118%
Millions of Tons of Carbon Equiv.
3,000
2,700
39%
Projected emissions, 2025
2,400
2000 Emissions
2,100
1,800
1,500
19%
42%
1,200
70%
900
80%
68%
26%
600
124%
300
0
U.S .
China
E.U.
FSU
India
Africa
Brazil
Japan Mexico
WRI
Barriers to Engagement
• Perceptions that…
– The U.S.—the world’s largest contributor to climate
change—is not doing enough, and has dropped out of
the Kyoto negotiations
– Costs of climate protection are high, and technologies
needed are unavailable, or prohibitively expensive
– Climate protection measures compromise
development interests and priorities
– Technical and institutional capacity problems (e.g.,
lack of good data, uncertainties, etc.)
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Options for Engagement
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Emission targets (Kyoto-style)
Emission-intensity targets (GHG/GDP)
Non-binding targets
Policies and measures (SD-PAMs)
Technology/sectoral cooperation
Sector/Policy-based Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
Project-based CDM (status quo)
All of these are being explored and analyzed.
WRI
Options for Engagement
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Emission targets (Kyoto-style)
Emission-intensity targets (GHG/GDP)
Non-binding targets
Policies and measures (SD-PAMs)
Technology/sectoral cooperation
Sector/Policy-based Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
Project-based CDM (status quo)
All of these are being explored and analyzed.
WRI
Emissions Targets
• Targets: default “post-Kyoto” approach
• “Developing country targets” view is
expressed in 1998 Byrd-Hagel resolution and
more recent floor statements
• Main problems
–
–
–
Uncertainty of emission forecasts
Perceived as threat to development, rather than benefit
Technical and institutional capacity
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Projections are Unreliable
• US DOE “Reference Case” CO2 projections
for China in 2010:
–
–
1995 estimate: 1,237 MtC (range: 993 – 1520)
2004 estimate: 1,102 MtC (range: 1041 – 1176)
• Estimates vary year to year
• Uncertainty range (high-low) is very large
• Legally binding targets unlikely
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Number of People without Electricity
900
800
700
millions
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970
1980
South Asia
Middle East
1990
2000
East Asia/China
Sub-Saharan Africa
2010
2020
2030
Latin America
North Africa
Source: WEO 2002
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Emissions Targets are Unlikely
• Implications
–
–
Global (i.e., North-South) system GHG allowance
trading is unlikely in the near to medium term
Other options need further examination and pursuit
WRI
“Sustainable Development PAMs”
• Pursue economic development and technology
strategies that are also climate-friendly (SD-PAMs)
• Helps overcome aforementioned barriers
• Look to:
– Key development needs/interests (electric power, mobility,
energy security, employment, etc.)
– Key countries (India, China, Brazil, others)
– Key sectors (transport, power, land use change)
– Key technologies (CCS, biofuels, biomass/RE, hybrids)
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“Sustainable Development PAMs”
• Examples (WRI forthcoming studies):
– India: Biomass/RE power (~500 million with no electricity
access)
– China: hybrid and other advanced vehicles (huge transport
growth, major oil security issues)
– Brazil: biofuels (large social and economic benefits)
– S. Africa: carbon capture & storage (CCS) (lots of potential,
but high costs and low development benefits)
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What Else Can be Done?
• Incorporate climate protection considerations into
public financial flows (“greening”)
– World Bank lending, Export Credit Agencies, development
assistance aid
• Build capacity for longer-term engagement
– WRI-WBCSD Greenhouse Gas Protocol project
• Strengthen adaptation efforts
• U.S. domestic action with “international spillovers”
– Technology development and deployment
– Auto sector (trade and FDI effects)
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Conclusion
•
•
•
•
•
A key barrier to North-South cooperation is
political; US leadership is needed
There is already a rich (and growing) menu of
options for developing country engagement
Pushing for targets is not especially constructive
Look for development-climate protection linkages
Developing country engagement is a process;
progressive evolution is possible over time.
WRI
Thank you!
Kevin A. Baumert (kbaumert@wri.org)
Climate, Energy, and Pollution Program
World Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org
WRI