MMS Mid-Atlantic Model Calculations
Kick-Off Meeting Webex-Teleconference
Feb/10/2009, 10am-12noon
Agenda
10:00-10:10 --- Introduction - Walter Johnson
10:10-11:30 --- Technical Presentation
1.10:10-10:20 (Oey) Background & Goals
2.10:20-10:40 (Oey) Proposed Modeling & Skill Assessments - a Summary
3.10:40-10:50 (Lin) Wind (WRF) Modeling
4.10:50-11:00 (Mellor) Wave Modeling
5.11:00-11:10 (Atkinson & Blanco) Data Availability & Proposed Prep./Analysis
6.11:10-11:20 (Ezer & Blanco) Proposed Skill Assessments I
7.11:20-11:30 (Wang) Proposed Skill Assessments II
8.11:30-12:00 (All) Recommendations & discussions
9.12:00 - Adjourn. ----------------------------------
1. 10:10-10:20 (Oey) Background & Goals
Background (Motivations):
 MMS needs to assess potential environmental impacts due to
oil/gas lease off Virginia continental shelf and slope, & the MA
 MMS uses OSRA for EIS prep, and OSRA code needs wind and
ocean current as inputs, but MMS has no functional model for
the MA region to generate these inputs, hence this project to…
 provide MMS w/current and wind, and a simple-to-use, fully
tested and data-validated ocean model driven by tides, winds,
rivers, the GS, eddies etc, plus also advanced physics such as a
companion wave and wave-current coupling submodel, a wind
model, various data-assimilation schemes, and numerics: highorder PG scheme + high-resolution nesting that include the
large-scale Atlantic influences
Goals
1) Modify an existing ocean circulation model to maximize skill in the MidAtlantic;
2) Conduct sensitivity testing and validation of the modified model;
3) Provide gridded velocity fields (wind, surface current) for the period 19932008 to MMS;
4) Document the model and results through a model manual, final report, and
submittal of a manuscript and/or a peer-reviewed journal article;
5) Provide an improved understanding of the physical oceanography of Mid
Atlantic ocean region.
Science Team
•
Dr. Oey: oversees the overall progress and direction, will contribute in all aspects;
will guide post-doctoral scientists;
•
Dr. Mellor: implements & tests his fully coupled wave-current model to the Mid
Atlantic;
•
Dr. Lin – WRF modeling, data assimilation & validation task4(1);
•
Dr. Wang: conducts model data validation tasks 4(2) w/Oleander data and 4(3)
Globec drifters;
•
Dr. Ezer: conducts model data validation task 4(5) using (i) MMS moorings off NC and (ii)
•
Dr. Atkinson: conducts model data validation task 4(6) shelf currents – moorings and
HF-Radar; assisted by Ms. Garner & Dr. Blanco;
•
Research Assoc: Mr (Dr) Zhang (tentative) – nested MA model & validation task 4(4);
work closely w/Oey;
PRIMER and CMO data; also, with Dr. Blanco (below) – tasks 4(7) on shelfbreak+slope
currents, and 4(8) satellite to check modeled GS;
Management Team
• Dr. L. Oey: As Program Manager, Dr. Oey will have
overall responsibility for all aspects of this proposed
program, including technical activities, financial
performance, scheduling and deliverables.
• Ms. Laura Rossi: As the Business Manager, Ms. Rossi
will assist the PM in oversight of contract issues as well as
tracking program finances and scheduling of deliverables.
• The experienced and proven Princeton University contract
and grants support team will assist in tracking finances and
invoicing for all Princeton research and contract activities.
2. 10:20-10:40 (Oey)
Proposed Modeling & Skill Assessments - a
Summary
Approach:
tests &
validations
Models
Observations
1993-2008
Analyses
Quality checks
Gridded
Data
Study Region:
ECCO: Estimating the Circulation & Climate of the Ocean
Satellite SST
Jan-05-2000
Proposed Ocean Modeling System for OSRA
Validations
Qscat
winds
Atl-waves
Satellite,
ADCP, Drifters
Radar..
DA
+ ncep
DA
Atmos:
ncep/WRF
Ocean: ecco/
pom08-pow
tides & rivers
(estuaries)
Validations
Quality checks
Gridded
Fields
OSRA
The Numerical Model
Time-dependent & 3-d
Curvilinear horizontal & terrain-following vertical grids
New Numerics: monotone adv-scheme; accurate PG-Scheme; nonhydrostatic option
New Physics: e.g. Current-Waves, WAD
Hi-Res realistic bathymetry
Forcing: T & S, NCEP surface fluxes, Qscat + NCEP + HRD +
buoy winds, now propose WRF; large-scale by ecco, rivers, tides
Assimilation Algorithm: efficient OI/3dVar, breeding..
Can Assimilate: satellite SSHA & SST, moorings, Lagrangian
floats, already prelim. done for 1993-2007
Model Sensitivity & Process Experiments
Exp.AFull: Full assimilation run – SSHA (anomaly), SST, drifters and selected ADCP’s
and hydrography are assimilated; the WRF winds are used and wave-current coupling;
Exp.APartial.1-5: Partial assimilation experiments 1 through 5;
Exp.ASat: Partial assimilation using satellite SSHA and SST only;
Exp.ASSH: Partial assimilation using satellite SSHA only;
Exp.ANcepQ: Full assimilation run (Exp.AFull) but w/NCEP/QSCAT blended wind;
Exp.ANoWave: Full assimilation run (Exp.AFull) but without wave-current coupling;
Other sub-experiments: implicit waves in turbulence parameterization;
driving the wave submodel with NCEP/QSCAT wind etc;
Exp.ANoWinda&b: Full assimilation run (Exp.AFull) but without the wind;
Exp.AGS: Full assimilation run (Exp.AFull) but the shelf and slope will be
unassimilated; two sub-experiments are (a) no rivers, and (b) no rivers nor winds.
Exp.F*: Free-running (non-DA) experiments
Scientific Questions:
While our goal will be to provide current and wind fields to MMS, well-posed
scientific questions and quests to address them can go a long way not only in
improving understanding, but also in helping to identify model deficiencies and
hence in improving it and the quality of our products. Here are 4 key questions
related to cross-shelf/slope flows, over the entire MA and particularly near Cape
Hatteras and off VA, and also to the large-scale forcing of the GS:
(a) what drives the mean cross-shelf/slope flow? Is offshore flow near CH a
consequence or a cause of southward shelf convergence?
JEBAR & origin of pressure gradient?
U. (f/H) = +g’k.[(h12/2) × (1/H)]  .[(r/H)]
cool
(1/H)
U. (f/H) < 0
h12/2
warm
(b) time-dependent, eddy-shelf/slope interaction – nature & dynamics?
Scientific Questions (cont’d):
(c) Long-term variability in the Atlantic basin (interannual, NAO and
decadal) influence the Gulf Stream position and strength [e.g. Ezer, 1999,
JPO]. Over the 16yr-period, how may these variations impact the crossslope exchange processes?
(d) What is the impact of the DWBC?
Scientific Questions (concld)
bottom flow
POM Atlantic Ocean
(resolution ~ 20 km over MA)
Ezer & Mellor, 1997
Note that the
DWBC passes
close to the oil &
gas lease region:
potentially strong
convergence and
upwelling zone
there
Why interested in these? They will likely
change the frontal and eddy statistics
over the slope sea – thus impacting on the
cross-slope flows…
vertical flow
(w<0 shade)
Model Validation sub-Tasks
1.Use the NDBC buoy data to validate the wind product (Lin & Oey);
2. Use the Oleander data to validate GS eddies and secondary eddies (Wang);
3. Use GLOBEC drifters on the shelf to validate (modeled) surface trajectories (Wang);
4. Use the high-res SST images from AVHRR to check for eddies [e.g. Wei et al. 2008];
5. Use the MMS moorings off NC to validate southern MAB circulation; repeat using the
PRIMER and CMO data for middle MAB (Ezer & Blanco);
6. Use Lentz’s [2008] ‘collection’ to validate the modeled mean and fluctuating shelf
circulation, and to compare w/wind, river and pressure-driven Ekman-type dynamics, HFRadar data may also be used for this purpose (Atkinson, Garner & Blanco; Oey);
7. Use GLOBEC and ARGO data, the Oleander data, and the PRIMER and CMO data to
validate the shelf, shelfbreak and slope currents [e.g. Flagg et al. 2006]; (Ezer & Blanco);
8. Use satellite SSH and SST to assess the accuracy of the modeled Gulf Stream path over
the 1993-2008 period. (Ezer & Blanco; Oey);
----------------------------------------9. (a) modeled sea-level vs. tide-gauges; (b) major plumes against satellite; (c) near-coast
currents. See, e.g. Mau, D-P. Wang, Ullman & Codiga, 2007: Characterizing Long Island
Sound outflows from HF radar using self-organizing maps. Estuarine, Coastal, Shelf Sci.,
74, 155-165.
Tasks (Summary Slide):
1.
SRG (pending MMS approval): Drs. John Allen, Peter Hamilton & Lian Xie
2.
Post Award/Coordination Meeting
Data Compilation
3.
Model Modifications, Tests & Sensitivity Experiments
4.
Model Analyses & Validations
5.
Gridded Velocity Fields
6.
Documentation
Deliverables:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
J.
K.
L.
M.
Post-Award Meeting & Summary
Quarterly Status Letters
Journal Publications (Manuscripts) &/or Oral Presentations
Progress Presentations, Summaries & Biographies
Draft Final Report & Database
Report Cover Graphics
Final Report (Review Copy)
Final Report (Final)
Technical Summary (Draft)
Technical Summary (Final)
Power Point Presentation
Correspondence
Surface Currents + Wind; model + auxiliary codes + all inputs & some
outputs
N. User manual
Schedule:
Timeline:
3. 10:40-10:50 (Lin) Wind (WRF) Modeling
4. 10:50-11:00 (Mellor) Wave Modeling
5. 11:00-11:10 (Atkinson & Blanco) Data
Availability & Proposed Prep./Analysis
6. 11:10-11:20 (Ezer & Blanco) Proposed Skill
Assessments I
7. 11:20-11:30 (Wang) Proposed Skill
Assessments II
8. 11:30-12:00 (All) Recommendations &
discussions
a. Science team to meet 2nd half of April/2009
@Princeton to discuss preliminary results
and to plot strategies;
b.
9. 12:00 Adjourn.
THANK YOU!