New European Wood Market: Shortage or Surplus?
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Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso New European Wood Market: Shortage or Surplus? Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization & UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Topics I. Wood markets in the UNECE region II. UNECE region's markets fit into the global situation III. Forest resources Photo: Stora Enso IV. Rise in demand for wood for energy in Europe V. Photo: Stora Enso Availability of wood to meet elevated demands VI. Shortage or surplus? FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Info sources Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • UNECE/FAO workshop proceedings • UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study • UNECE/FAO Forest Resources Assessment • UNECE/FAO TIMBER Database • Forest Products Annual Market Review • FAOStat FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC I. Wood markets in the UNECE region Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Consumption in UNECE region 295 200 275 198 255 Million m3 Photo: Stora Enso 215 194 195 192 175 190 Million m.t. 196 235 155 2005 2004 186 2003 115 2002 188 2001 Photo: Stora Enso 135 Sawnwood m3 Panels m3 Paper and paperboard m.t. Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2005-2006 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso m3 equivalent Consumption in UNECE region 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Demand for wood and wood products at record high levels in 2005 & based on UNECE Timber Committee forecasts higher again in 2006 and 2007 2001 Europe 2002 C.I.S. 2003 N. America 2004 2005 UNECE region Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2005-2006 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Exports of primary products Photo: Stora Enso Index (2001=100) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Photo: Stora Enso 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 C.I.S.: $9 billion in 2005 EECCA: Europe: $86 billion in 2005 UNECE-region: $139 billion in 2005 North America: $44 billion in 2005 Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2005-2006 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC UNECE Timber Committee forecasts for 2007 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Forest products markets forecast at record levels in the UNECE region in 2006 and 2007 • Chinese forest industry rapidly reshaping marketplace • Continuing concern about illegal logging, climate change • Record high energy prices and energy policies driving wood energy markets • Despite forest growth outstripping removals, increased competition for timber FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Photo: Stora Enso II. UNECE region's markets fit into the global situation Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC UNECE region’s share of world consumption of primary forest products, 2005 Paper and paperboard Photo: Stora Enso Wood-based panels 55 to 80% Sawnwood Wood pulp Photo: Stora Enso Industrial roundwood 0% 20% 40% UNECE 60% 80% 100% Rest of world Sources: UNECE/FAO TIMBER database, FAO statistics, 2006. FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC UNECE region’s share of world production of primary forest products of which UNECE r egion 2004 Wor ld pr oduct ion 2003 100% Photo: Stora Enso 80% 62 to 78% 60% 40% Photo: Stora Enso 20% 0% Indust r ial Sawnwood Wood based Paper and Wood pulp Recover ed r oundwood m3 panels m3 paper boar d m.t . paper m.t . m3 m.t . Sources: UNECE/FAO TIMBER database, FAO statistics, 2006. FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC UNECE region’s share of world exports of primary forest products of which UNECE export s 2004 World export s 2003 100% 90% Photo: Stora Enso 80% 70% 60% 75 to 98% 50% 40% 30% Photo: Stora Enso 20% 10% 0% Indust r ial r oundwood Sawnwood Wood based Paper and panels paper boar d Wood pulp Recover ed paper Sources: UNECE/FAO TIMBER database, FAO statistics, 2006. FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Top-5 importers of builders joinery and carpentry 3.0 2.5 Demand for joinery, millwork, profiled wood, is mostly within the UNECE region – same as flooring. Photo: Stora Enso Billion $ 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Photo: Stora Enso United States 2001 Germany 2002 France 2003 United Kingdom 2004 2005 Japan 2006 Sources: Eurostat, Trade Statistics of Japan by Ministry of Trade and Customs, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC III. Forest resources Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Where are the forests? Oceania 5% Photo: Stora Enso N&C America 14% Africa 17% S. America 23% Photo: Stora Enso Asia 14% Europe 27% Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2007 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Photo: Stora Enso Million hectares European forests, including Russia 600 500 400 300 200 i 100 0 Photo: Stora Enso Softwoods East Southwest Hardwoods Nordic/Baltic Northwest Mixed Southeast Central Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Resources Assessment FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Industrial roundwood exports 6 Photo: Stora Enso $ billions 5 Softwood and temperate hardwood exports increasing through 2007, especially from Russia – but new Russian export taxes could cut exports. Tropical exports generally falling: 1. Countries banning log exports 2. Promotion of value-added 4 3 2 1 Photo: Stora Enso 0 2000 2001 Softwood 2002 2003 Temperate hardwood 2004 2005 Tropical Source: FAO Stat FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Where’s the wood? Africa 12% Oceania 3% N&C America 17% Photo: Stora Enso Asia 9% Photo: Stora Enso S. America 29% Europe 30% Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2007 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Wood volume per hectare Photo: Stora Enso m3 per hectare 140 120 125 123 112 100 80 72 60 63 55 40 20 Photo: Stora Enso 0 S.America Africa N&C America Asia Europe Oceania FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC UNECE region's forests fit into the global situation World forests vs. UNECE region forests 4500 Photo: Stora Enso 4000 Million hectares 3500 Photo: Stora Enso 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 UNECE 63% 500 0 Source: State of the World’s Forest, 2007. FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Annual change in forest area, 2000-2005 Asia & Pacific 3 2 Million hectares Photo: Stora Enso 1 Europe 0 -1 Near East -2 N America -3 Photo: Stora Enso -4 Africa -5 S. America Natural Plantation Total Latin America & the Caribbean Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2007. FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Annual change in forest area, 1990-2000, (million hectares) Deforestation Increase in forest area Net change in forest area Tropics -14.2 +1.9 -12.3 Nontropics -0.4 +3.3 +2.9 World -14.6 +5.2 -9.4 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 Note: Annual change in forest area recalculated as –7.3 million Ha per year from 2000-2005 by FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Reasons for deforestation Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Conversion to other land uses – Agricultural, including • Grazing • Conversion to palm oil – Urbanization • Unsustainable silvicultural practices – Unmanaged harvesting – Poor regeneration – Fire, insects and diseases – Over harvesting fuelwood • Poverty and overpopulation FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Forest resources in Europe Photo: Stora Enso • Only 60% of wood grown is harvested • Forest volume increases ~2 million m3 daily • Forestland increases by 500,000 hectares per year Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC State of Europe’s Forests Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • • • • • • • Resources and area increasing Forest health and vitality are critical Productive functions maintained Biodiversity is a focus Plantations are only 3% Protective forests are 12% Socio-economic functions important FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Forest resources in Russia Photo: Stora Enso • Only 16% of wood grown is harvested • Forest volume increases ~3 million m3 daily • Forest area 1990 to 2000: no significant change Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Forest resources in N. America Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • 80% of net annual increment harvested • Forest volume increases ~3 million m3 daily • Forest area 1990 to 2000 – USA +0.2% – Canada, no significant change FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Forest resources: growing stock 70 Photo: Stora Enso Billion m3 60 50 40 s 30 20 Photo: Stora Enso 10 0 Europe (41) Growing stock North America Net annual increment CIS Fellings Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Net annual growth vs. fellings 1 0.9 Photo: Stora Enso Billion m3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Photo: Stora Enso 0.1 0 Europe (41) N. America Net annual increment CIS Fellings Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Forests increasing Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Central Europe Nordics & Baltics Fellings as % of annual growth 61% 72% Northwest Europe Southeast Europe EU 27 53% 45% 60% Russia North America 34% 80% Sources: State of the World’s Forests, 2007 and UNECE/FAO Forest Resources Assessment FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Deforestation & the wood processing industry Photo: Stora Enso • Consumers confused about deforestation • Middlemen asking for assurance of source – Sustainable forest management – Legality • Retailers want to sell legal, sustainable • Industry, governments, organizations want Photo: Stora Enso – Sustainable economic development – Sustainable forest management FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Deforestation & the wood processing industry Photo: Stora Enso • • • • Manufacturers’ info, including labels Retailers’ labels, e.g. IKEA Promotional campaigns’ labels Certification systems’ labels, including chain-of-custody certificates Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Global distribution of certified forest area as a percentage of total forest area by countries, 2007 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Sources: Individual certification systems, Forest Certification Watch, the Canadian Sustainable Forestry Certification Coalition, and FAO FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Geographical distribution of total certified forest area, 2007 % Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 56 28 7 North EU/ EFTA America O ther Europe and C IS 4 Latin America 3 O ceania 1 1 Africa Asia Sources: Individual certification systems, Forest Certification Watch and the Canadian Sustainable Forestry Certification Coalition, 2007. FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Certification summary Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • ~300 million hectares, 8% world’s forests • Mostly temperate, only ~6% tropic • Equivalent of industrial roundwood – ~400 million m3 – ~25% of world production – Mostly North America, 13%, then – Europe, 11% • New driver: public procurement policies FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Certification summary Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • UNECE Timber Committee: “Channel of communication”. But communication without labels? • Expanding more slowly • Conflict between schemes – Consumer confusion – Multiple certification of same forests and products (especially Sweden) FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Forest resources summary Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Removals considerably below growth in temperate forests • Wide variance in utilization rates of NAI • Growing stock increasing in Europe • Southern hemisphere plantations expanding • Statistical oversupply compared to demand for wood • Increasing alternative demands on forests, including for energy FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC 200 180 X factor for resources: Climate change 160 Photo: Stora Enso Volume (million m3) 140 120 • Growth, species … long term • Storms … sudden 100 80 60 Photo: Stora Enso 40 20 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Photo: Stora Enso Annual damage, CHF (millions) Photo: Stora Enso Cumulative damage, CHF (millions) Swiss storm damage Source: Swiss Federal Research Institute FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC IV. Rise in demand for wood for energy in Europe Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Climate change awareness has increased political and public interest in wood energy • EU launched ambitious energy policies • Wood pellet markets are growing throughout Europe FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Background issues Photo: Stora Enso • • • • Increasing fossil fuel prices Energy security Policies to reduce climate change Wood industries’ wood needs Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Background issues • Increasing fossil fuel prices Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Source: International Energy Agency, 2007 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Background issues Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Increasing fossil fuel prices • Energy security – Middle East instability – Russian supply interruptions – Growing consumption, e.g. China – Nuclear safety FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Background issues Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Increasing fossil fuel prices • Energy security • Policies to reduce climate change – UNECE region – Kyoto Protocol – European Union & member countries • 20% renewable energy in 2020 – G8 – United States’ government lagging behind FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Background issues Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • • • • Increasing fossil fuel prices Energy security Policies to reduce climate change Wood industries’ wood needs – Increasing demand – Increasing raw material prices – Competition • Local can be intense • Short-term can be intense FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Wood energy in 12 European countries, 2005 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Source: UNECE/FAO, 2007. FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC EU biomass use, 1990-2004 80 Liquid biofuels 70 Photo: Stora Enso 60 Municiple waste Mtoe 50 Biogas Wood now +80% 40 Other wood & wood waste 30 20 Photo: Stora Enso Wood & wood waste in households & services 10 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 20 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 19 19 90 0 Source: Eurostat, 2007 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Pellet production and consumption Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Pellet Production (1000 tons) 7000 North American Production North American Consumption 6000 European Consumption 5000 Other Consumption 4000 Total Consumption 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Canadian Wood Pellet Association, 2007 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Sweden’s woodfuel imports Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2005-2006 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Sweden’s woodfuel imports, 2005 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Latvia Canada Belarus Holland Estonia Spain Norway Finland Total Volume, Gwh 1200 460 410 390 325 115 48 39 7,032 Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2005-2006 FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Photo: Stora Enso V. Availability of wood to meet elevated demands Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Western European wood and fibre requirements, 1960-2020 800 Recovered paper Net pulp imports Amount (in million cubic metres WRME) 700 Gap is residues Industrial roundwood Total wood and fibre requirement 600 500 Growing demand without energy 400 300 200 100 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Source: UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005 WRME = Wood raw material equivalent Supply and demand dilemma in western Europe in 2010 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Wood and paper industry – 312 million m3 (wood raw material equivalent) • Energy sector – 210 million m3 (based on EU targets) • Forests’ annual growth – 505 million m3 (net annual increment on forests available for wood supply) FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Photo: Stora Enso International Seminar on Energy and the Forest Products Industry October 2006, Rome Photo: Stora Enso FAO, IEA, ICFPA, UNECE, ITTO, WBCSD FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Energy and the Forest Products Industry Seminar Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Themes – Energy policies and trends – Role of wood as an energy source – Energy and material efficiency in the forest products industry FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Energy & industry seminar conclusions from Rome, 2006 Photo: Stora Enso • Integrated and balanced energy and forest policies mitigate climate change • Local actions with global vision • Stable, sustainable regulatory frameworks needed for level playing field Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Leveling the playing field Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • • • • • • • Policies, legislation Environmental regulations Duties, tariffs, taxes Raw material costs Labor costs, benefits Manufacturing costs Rise in standard of living consumption or wood products FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Energy & industry seminar conclusions from Rome, 2006 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Forest products industry combats climate change by – – – – – Optimizing raw material usage Increasing efficiency Producing bioenergy Expanding into biofuel production Improving sector competitiveness • Forest products industry could be a net supplier of energy FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Energy & industry seminar conclusions from Rome, 2006 Photo: Stora Enso • Forest products industry suffers an image problem – must be proactive • Developing countries need assistance to use forest and mill residues for energy • International organizations can Photo: Stora Enso – collect, analyze and distribute data and information – Develop partnerships, provide forums – Coordinate research FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Mobilizing Wood Resources Workshop Photo: Stora Enso January 2007, Geneva Photo: Stora Enso UNECE/FAO, FAO, CEPI, MCPFE, EFI FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Mobilizing Wood Resources Workshop, Geneva 2007 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Can Europe’s forests satisfy the increasing demand for raw material and energy under SFM? • Stakeholders, over 100, represented industry, government, international organizations, NGOs, FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Mobilizing Wood Resources Workshop, Geneva 2007 Photo: Stora Enso • Potential for increased wood supply ? • Opportunities for increased mobilization ? Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Mobilizing Wood Resources Workshop, Geneva 2007 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Limits of sustainability • Energy and resource efficiency • Equal treatment (agriculture vs. forestry, imported vs. domestic) • Respect regional variations FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Mobilizing Wood Resources Workshop, Geneva 2007 Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Coherence between different sector policies • Integrate whole supply chain in biomass strategies • Need for comprehensive reliable data • Empower forest owners to form “clusters” • Improve infrastructure and logistics • Qualified workforce • Capacity building and training FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Mobilizing Wood Resources Implementation of findings Photo: Stora Enso • MCPFE resolution on wood energy and mobilization • UNECE/FAO activity – Wood energy data and information – Mobilization – Policy forum October 2007 Photo: Stora Enso • Opportunities for technical, policy assistance to developing countries, e.g. wood energy workshop in Balkan region FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Mobilizing Wood Resources Workshop, Conclusions • Remember importance of climate change and energy security Photo: Stora Enso • Increase in wood supply possible • Realistic policy targets • Requirement for reliable statistics and forecasts Photo: Stora Enso • Consider impacts on other sectors • Overall, an opportunity for the forest sector FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Photo: Stora Enso VI. New European Wood Market: Shortage or Surplus? Photo: Stora Enso FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Shortage or Surplus? Photo: Stora Enso • Short term – Competition for wood raw materials • Roundwood • Byproducts • Recovered wood Photo: Stora Enso – Reduced Russian roundwood, or higher cost – Oversupply in North America – Rising costs FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Pine Spruce 2007 2006 Photo: Stora Enso 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 Photo: Stora Enso Euros / m3 Latvian pulpwood prices Aspen Birch Source: Latvian Forest Industry Federation FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Panel manufacturers’ wood costs 160 150 Index (2000=100) Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso 140 130 120 110 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: European Panel Federation, 2006. FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Shortage or Surplus? Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso • Medium term – Increasing demand for wood raw materials for wood processing industry – Increasing demand for wood energy – Development of infrastructure – Additional imports – Price stability? FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Shortage or Surplus? • Long term Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso – Increased harvests – Increased alternative wood sources • Wood outside forests • More recovered wood • Energy plantations – Greater trade FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Shortage or Surplus? • Studies underway Photo: Stora Enso – UNECE/FAO with partners – CEPI-commissioned study • UNECE/FAO Policy Forum Photo: Stora Enso – 10 October 2007, Geneva – After joint Timber Committee and International Softwood Conference Market Discussions FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC Photo: Stora Enso Photo: Stora Enso Ed Pepke Forest Products Marketing Specialist UNECE/FAO Timber Section 448 Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland Tel. +41 22 917 2872 Fax +41 22 917 0041 Ed.Pepke@unece.org FEP General Assembly and European Parquet Congress Malmö, Sweden, 8 June 2007 Photo: NTC
