A.P. GOVERNMENT
What You Should Know for the Exam: Public Opinion
Factors that Influence Public Opinion
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Political Socialization—how we learn about politics, ideology, our views of government, etc.
o Family---most on-going and impactful; earliest factor in shaping views (often not overt);
tied to other factors (e.g., socioeconomic status, religion)
o School—often most purposeful form of socialization through overt lessons about the
value of democracy or specific curriculum, etc.; some messages are latent (not overt)—
e.g. school elections, school rules about behavior
o Groups to which we belong (peers, community, etc.)
o Media—messages about politics (consider, perhaps, the current impact of negative
media)
o Events (e.g., 9/11 and its impact on views about defense; Clinton’s sex scandal and trust
in government)
Factors associated with differences in public opinion
o Demographic factors demonstrate divisions (e.g., race, gender, socioeconomic status,
education)
 Age—little evidence supports the idea that people become more conservative
as they age; instead, perhaps, the difference is generational (millenials vs. baby
boomers)
 Education—increases engagement and understanding of issues
 Gender—women more ‘liberal’ on views about role of government in helping
the underprivileged, views about defense, views about death penalty; gender
gap—women more likely to vote Democratic
 Race and Ethnicity
 Long-time source of divisions in ideology and voting
 Somewhat tied to income (and education)
 Different views about economic and social issues (see p. 419)
 African Americans often more conservative on social issues (e.g.,
homosexual marriage and abortion; somewhat tied to religiosity; but
less conservative on death penalty and economic issues
 Hispanics range in views (Cubans are more conservative and tend to
vote Republican)
 Little consensus on trends for Asian-Americans
 Religion—some clear differences in ideological and issue differences between
religious groups; perhaps most important factors, though, is religiosity (how
religious one is)
 Region (and rural v. urban)
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Union membership—traditionally more Democratic; but complicated by other
factors (e.g., race, education, region)
 ‘Cross-cutting’ cleavages—people belong to many groups, so sometimes the
relationship between group identity and ideology/beliefs isn’t easy to predict
Ideology is linked to partisanship—different views about role of government, etc.
Measuring Public Opinion
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Types of Polls
o National polls—typically assess views about certain issues (Gallup and Pew do this);
sometimes involve person-to-person interviews
o Benchmark polls—get baseline about candidate or issue to establish strategy
o Tracking polls—over time collect samples; follow changes in attitudes about candidates,
often contribute to horse race journalism
o Exit polls—done on election night; stop sample of voters to see how they voted and
track demographic characteristics; often used to predict elections (sometimes not
effectively—like 2000 with Gore-Bush); one criticism is when reported on East Coast
when West Coast hasn’t voted
o Pseudo-polls—not professional polls; people call in themselves (so self-select) or
respond on the Internet; not likely reliable
Methods of measuring
o Samples and sampling error
 Polls take a portion of the population (sample) to assess opinions; statistically
analysis demonstrates the reliability of the sample
 A sample of about 1,000 is typically large enough to represent the population of
voters AS LONG AS the sample is collected randomly so that everyone has a
chance to be represented
 Sample must be random-everyone should have equal chance of getting
selected; every group should be represented (scientifically established that
certain factors achieve this)
 Sampling error (Or margin of error)—typically reported as a number +/- range;
like +/- 3; which means that there is a 95% chance that the real number for the
population is within plus or minus the number reported by the sample; For
example if the poll says that 56% of people polled in the sample believe that the
Democrats will lose, then the range for the number in the general population is
between 53 and 59.
 In election polls, if the results are within the margin of error, the election is too
close to call
o Random digit dialing—most polls are done over the phone; computers select who will
be called; with today’s technology—concern about cellphones, but pollsters seemed to
have adapted
Role of Polls:
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Linkage Institution—allow citizens opinions to be collected; allows voters to connect with
politicians
Allows politicians to assess voter opinions, perhaps to craft strategy
Evidence of strong public opinion might influence the agenda; have desire to get elected (or reelected), so will respond to public opinion; may have feeling that it’s their duty to reflect the
public will (in Congress, this fits in with the idea of representatives as delegates)
Criticism:
o politicians follow, don’t lead; research suggest they actually use polls to shape message
or decide what to focus on in elections, not necessarily how to vote
o creates bandwagon effect—people jump on board when see others’ opinions; so don’t
truly reflect thoughtfully formed opinions
o media shapes perceptions by using polls--- ‘horse race’
o exit polls = flawed and over-used (possible detrimental—in that they might diminish
turnout in late-voting states)
o change wording leads to changed results (so one might question validity)
 Ex: support embryonic stem cell research vs. killing of human embryo
o Refusal rates might call into question legitimacy (do people respond; are there trends in
who doesn’t respond, which negatively affects representativeness of sample)