Learning Objective 15.1 What we learned in last class: Expansionary vs. Contractionary monetary policy Static and dynamic AD-AS model to show effects of monetary policy Reduce the length of recessions and Fight inflation Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Why does Wall street care about monetary policy Can the Fed get the timing right. PCE The independence of the Fed. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 1 of 46 Fiscal Policy Learning Objectives 15.1 Define fiscal policy. 15.2 Explain how fiscal policy affects aggregate demand and how the government can use fiscal policy to stabilize the economy. 15.3 Explain how the government purchases and tax multipliers work. 15.4 Discuss the difficulties that can arise in implementing fiscal policy. The tax laws have become increasingly complicated. …It is not surprising that millions of Americans have given up filling out their own income tax forms, or have to rely on software such as Intuit’s TurboTax or H&R Block’s TaxCut. 15.5 Define federal budget deficit and federal government debt and explain how the federal budget can serve as an automatic stabilizer. 15.6 Discuss the effects of fiscal policy in the long run. APPENDIX Apply the multiplier formula. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 2 of 46 Learning Objective 15.1 Fiscal Policy What Fiscal Policy Is and What It Isn’t Fiscal policy Changes in federal taxes and purchases that are intended to achieve macroeconomic policy objectives, such as high employment, price stability, and high rates of economic growth. Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Automatic Stabilizers versus Discretionary Fiscal Policy Automatic stabilizers Government spending and taxes that automatically increase or decrease along with the business cycle. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 3 of 46 Learning Objective 15.1 Fiscal Policy An Overview of Government Spending and Taxes FIGURE 15.1 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy The Federal Government’s Share of Total Government Expenditures, 1929–2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 4 of 46 Learning Objective 15.1 Fiscal Policy An Overview of Government Spending and Taxes FIGURE 15.2 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Federal Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP, 1950–2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 5 of 46 Learning Objective 15.1 Fiscal Policy An Overview of Government Spending and Taxes FIGURE 15.3 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Federal Government Expenditures, 2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 6 of 46 Learning Objective 15.1 Making the Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Connection Is Spending on Social Security and Medicare a Fiscal Time Bomb? Will the federal government be able to keep the promises made by the Social Security and Medicare programs? © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 7 of 46 Learning Objective 15.1 Fiscal Policy An Overview of Government Spending and Taxes FIGURE 15.4 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Federal Government Revenue, 2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 8 of 46 Learning Objective 15.2 The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Real GDP and the Price Level Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Policy: An Initial Look FIGURE 15.5 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 9 of 46 Learning Objective 15.2 The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Real GDP and the Price Level Using Fiscal Policy to Influence Aggregate Demand: A More Complete Account FIGURE 15.6 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy An Expansionary Fiscal Policy © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 10 of 46 Learning Objective 15.2 The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Real GDP and the Price Level Using Fiscal Policy to Influence Aggregate Demand: A More Complete Account FIGURE 15.7 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy A Contractionary Fiscal Policy © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 11 of 46 Learning Objective 15.2 The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Real GDP and the Price Level A Summary of How Fiscal Policy Affects Aggregate Demand Table 15-1 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Countercyclical Fiscal Policy ACTIONS BY CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT RESULT PROBLEM TYPE OF POLICY Recession Expansionary Increase government spending or cut taxes Real GDP and the price level rise. Rising Inflation Contractionary Decrease government spending or raise taxes Real GDP and the price level fall. Don’t Let This Happen to YOU! Don’t Confuse Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 12 of 46 Learning Objective 15.3 The Government Purchases and Tax Multipliers Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Multiplier effect The series of induced increases in consumption spending that results from an initial increase in autonomous expenditures. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 13 of 46 Learning Objective 15.3 The Government Purchases and Tax Multipliers FIGURE 15.9 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy The Multiplier Effect of an Increase in Government Purchases © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 14 of 46 Learning Objective 15.3 The Government Purchases and Tax Multipliers The ratio of the change in equilibrium real GDP to the initial change in government purchases is known as the government purchases multiplier: Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Government purchases multiplier Change in equilibrium real GDP Change in government purchases The expression for this tax multiplier is: Tax multiplier Change in equilibrium real GDP Change in taxes © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 15 of 46 Learning Objective 15.3 The Government Purchases and Tax Multipliers FIGURE 15.8 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy The Multiplier Effect and Aggregate Demand © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 16 of 46 Learning Objective 15.3 The Government Purchases and Tax Multipliers Taking into Account the Effects of Aggregate Supply FIGURE 15.10 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy The Multiplier Effect and Aggregate Supply © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 17 of 46 Learning Objective 15.3 The Government Purchases and Tax Multipliers The Effect of Changes in Tax Rates A cut in tax rates affects equilibrium real GDP through two channels: Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy (1) A cut in tax rates increases the disposable income of households, which leads them to increase their consumption spending, and (2) a cut in tax rates increases the size of the multiplier effect. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 18 of 46 Learning Objective 15.3 The Government Purchases and Tax Multipliers The Multipliers Work in Both Directions Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Increases in government purchases and cuts in taxes have a positive multiplier effect on equilibrium real GDP. Decreases in government purchases and increases in taxes also have a multiplier effect on equilibrium real GDP, only in this case, the effect is negative. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 19 of 46 Learning Objective 15.3 Solved Problem 15-3 Fiscal Policy Multipliers Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Briefly explain whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Real GDP is currently $12.2 trillion, and potential real GDP is $12.5 trillion. If Congress and the president would increase government purchases by $300 billion or cut taxes by $300 billion, the economy could be brought to equilibrium at potential GDP.” Government purchases multiplier Change in equilibrium real GDP Change in government purchases © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 20 of 46 Learning Objective 15.1 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy What we learned in last class: Fisical Policy Definition: Federal vs. State/Local, Macroeconomic Objectives. Automatic Stabilizers vs. Discretionary. An overview of government spending and taxes. The effects of fiscal policy on real GDP and the price level Expanstionary and Contractionary The multiplier effect How it works. A change in tax rates will change the size of the multiplier effect. The multiplier effect works in both directions © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 21 of 46 Learning Objective 15.4 The Limits of Using Fiscal Policy to Stabilize the Economy Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Fiscal policy is harder to get timing right than monetary policy: The delay caused by legislative process and implementation. Does Government Spending Reduce Private Spending? Crowding out A decline in private expenditures as a result of an increase in government purchases. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 22 of 46 Learning Objective 15.4 The Limits of Using Fiscal Policy to Stabilize the Economy Crowding Out in the Short Run FIGURE 15.11 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy An Expansionary Fiscal Policy Increases Interest Rates © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 23 of 46 Learning Objective 15.4 The Limits of Using Fiscal Policy to Stabilize the Economy Crowding Out in the Short Run FIGURE 15.12 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy The Effect of Crowding Out in the Short Run © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 24 of 46 Learning Objective 15.4 The Limits of Using Fiscal Policy to Stabilize the Economy Crowding Out in the Long Run To understand crowding out in the long run, recall that in the long run, the economy returns to potential GDP. Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Complete crowding out. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 25 of 46 Learning Objective 15.4 Making the Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Connection Is Losing Your Job Good for Your Health? Recent research shows that, surprisingly, the health of people who are temporarily unemployed may improve. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 26 of 46 Learning Objective 15.5 Deficits, Surpluses, and Federal Government Debt Budget deficit The situation in which the government’s expenditures are greater than its tax revenue. Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Budget surplus The situation in which the government’s expenditures are less than its tax revenue. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 27 of 46 Learning Objective 15.5 Deficits, Surpluses, and Federal Government Debt FIGURE 15.13 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy The Federal Budget Deficit, 1901–2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 28 of 46 Learning Objective 15.5 Deficits, Surpluses, and Federal Government Debt How the Federal Budget Can Serve as an Automatic Stabilizer Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Cyclically adjusted budget deficit or surplus The deficit or surplus in the federal government’s budget if the economy were at potential GDP. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 29 of 46 Learning Objective 15.5 Solved Problem 15-5 The Effect of Economic Fluctuations on the Budget Deficit Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy The federal government’s budget deficit was $207.8 billion in 1983 and $185.4 billion in 1984. A student comments, “The government must have acted during 1984 to raise taxes or cut spending or both.” Do you agree? Briefly explain. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 30 of 46 Learning Objective 15.5 Deficits, Surpluses, and Federal Government Debt Should the Federal Budget Always Be Balanced? Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Although many economists believe that it is a good idea for the federal government to have a balanced budget when the economy is at potential GDP, few economists believe that the federal government should attempt to balance its budget every year. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 31 of 46 Learning Objective 15.5 Deficits, Surpluses, and Federal Government Debt The Federal Government Debt FIGURE 15.14 Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy The Federal Government Debt, 1901–2006 © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 32 of 46 Learning Objective 15.5 Deficits, Surpluses, and Federal Government Debt Is Government Debt a Problem? Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Debt can be a problem for a government for the same reasons that debt can be a problem for a household or a business. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 33 of 46 Learning Objective 15.6 The Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Long Run The Long-Run Effects of Tax Policy Tax wedge The difference between the pretax and posttax return to an economic activity. We can look briefly at the effects on aggregate supply of cutting each of the following taxes: Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy • Individual income tax. • Corporate income tax. • Taxes on dividends and capital gains. Tax Simplification In addition to the potential gains from cutting individual taxes, there are also gains from tax simplification. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 34 of 46 Learning Objective 15.6 The Effects of Fiscal Policy in the Long Run How Large Are Supply-Side Effects? Chapter 15: Fiscal Policy Most economists would agree that there are supply-side effects to reducing taxes: Decreasing marginal income tax rates will increase the quantity of labor supplied, cutting the corporate income tax will increase investment spending, and so on. The magnitude of the effects is subject to considerable debate, however. © 2008 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Economics R. Glenn Hubbard, Anthony Patrick O’Brien, 2e. 35 of 46