Transport and Climate Change Mitigation
Mr. Philippe Crist, Joint Research Centre of the International
Transport Forum and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
The International Transport Forum
• A global platform for discussing transport, logistics, mobility
• A meeting place for the transport sector at the highest level
• A forum run by governments, open to business, research
and civil society
• 51 Countries
Outline
“Mind the Gap”: GHG Trends in the Transport Sector
Which Policies at What Cost?
Transport Policy Implications and Priorities
Emissions
Linking
Emissions
to Damages
Kyoto Gases but also NOx CO, VOC, SOx, Black soot, Water vapour,
other acompounds and effects (contrails)
Atmospheric Concentrations:
Depends on interaction with other emissions, strength of sinks
(extraction from the atmosphere), persistence in atmosphere
3
Radiative Forcing
Actual impact on atmospheric temperatures, not constant factor
(depends on atmospheric concentrations), can be pos., neg. or both
Source: Fuglestevdt et al, 2005
Increasing relevance to policy
2
Increasing uncertainty
1
Emissions
Linking
Emissions
to Damages
Kyoto Gases but also NOx CO, VOC, SOx, Black soot, Water vapour,
other acompounds and effects (contrails)
Atmospheric Concentrations:
Depends on interaction with other emissions, strength of sinks
(extraction from the atmosphere), persistence in atmosphere
3
Radiative Forcing
Actual impact on atmospheric temperatures, not constant factor
(depends on atmospheric concentrations), can be pos., neg. or both
4
Climate Change
Actual changes in Climate (temperatures, precipitation, wind, soil
moisture, extreme weather, sea level.
5
Impacts of Climate Change
Agriculture and Forestry, ecosystems, energy prod. and cons., water
distribution, social effects, etc….
6
Damages/Benefits
Welfare losses, welfare gains (monetary units – e.g. GDP), other
welfare metrics (HDI,GPI, etc)
Source: Fuglestevdt et al, 2005
Increasing relevance to policy
2
Increasing uncertainty
1
Present
Global Anthropogenic GHG Emissions 1970-2004
49.0
50
44.7
GHG Emissions
F-gases
45
N2O and wastewater
Waste
1.1%
7.9%
2.5%
CO2 Supply
Fossil
Forestry
Energy
CH413.5%
Fuel
Use
25.9%
14.3%
56.6%
39.4
40
35.6
GtCO2eq/yr
35
30
28.7
Agriculture
13.5%
25
CO2 (deforestation,
decay, etc…) 17.3%
20
Industry
CO219.4%
(other)
2.8%
15
10
5
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
Transport
13.1%
Residential &
commercial bldngs.
7.9%
Present
Transport's Share of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion
(2005 IEA data, including international aviation and maritime)
OECD
Other Transport
0.9%
International Maritime
2.3%
Domestic Navigation
0.4%
12.2
World
Other Sectors
13.6%
23.3%
45.4%
International Aviation
1.8%
Domestic Aviation
1.9%
19.1%
Energy
42.1%
OECD
75.9%
Transport
World
Road
73.3%
Domestic Aviation
Road
22.9%
International Aviation
Domestic Navigation
Transport 30%
International Maritime
14.0%
Manufacturing Industries
and Construction
Other Transport
6.4%
5.9%
1.4% 7.5% 2.9%
5.0%
6.6%
4.8% 8.6% 1.8%
Recent trends
Transport Sector CO2 Emissions by Region: 1990-2005
(excluding international aviation and shipping)
EU-15
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
1990
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
1990
New EU (EU12)
+22.3%
1995
2000
2005
OECD Asia
+32.3%
1995
2000
2005
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
1990
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
1990
N. America
+44.7%
1995
2000
2005
Other ITF
-19.2%
1995
2000
2005
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
1990
+28.7%
1995
2000
2005
Top 10 non ITF
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0
1990
+97.8%
1995
2000
2005
Future trends
World Motorisation: WBCSD Projections
Millions of LDV (cars, light trucks, vans, etc)
2500
China
FSU
Eastern Europe
Other Asia
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
Total OECD
India
2000
x3
1500
1000
500
0
2000
Source: IEA
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Future trends
Air Passenger Traffic Development
Air Cargo Traffic Development
RTKs (billions)
FTKs (billions)
12,000
History
Forecast
2006-2025: 5.0%/yr
10,000
550
8,000
Forecast
History
2006-2025: 6%/yr
500
450
x2.5
6,000
400
x3
1995-2005: 4.8%/yr
4,000
350
300
250
1995-2005: 4.5%/yr
2,000
200
150
International
100
50
Domestic
0
Source: Boeing, 2007
Source: Airbus, 2007
0
Future trends
18,000
Shipping Growth
and Forecast
16,000
Historic
Forecast
Million Metric Tons
14,000
12,000
container tons, approx.
reefer tons
dry bulker tons
chemicals tanker tons
gas carrier tons
oil tanker tons
total tons
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
x3
2,000
1980
source: Corbett, 2007
1990
2000
2010
2020
Shipboard power trends implicate growth in energy demand
3,500
Average Installed Power (kW)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1965
source: Corbett, 2007
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
7000
Top CO2 Emitting Countries/Sectors in 2005
6000
(Mt CO2, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, IEA, IMO, INTERTANKO)
5816.9
International Maritime
5100.6
5000
Mt CO2
4000
IMO-INTERTANKO
Estimate (2007)
International Aviation
3000
1120
2000
1543.7
1214.1
1000
543.4
813.5
548.6
0
415.6
1147.4
529.89 454
448.9
407.1
389.4
388.4
376.8 341.7 340.9 330.3 329.3 319.7
296.8
2.5
“Mind the Gap”: IEA CO2 Emission Forecasts vs. Targets
indexed to 1990, IEA Data and ITF
World Total CO2 Emissions
2
World Transport CO2 Emissions
OECD Total CO2 Emissions
1.5
1
Targets
EU
Germany
Netherlands
France
UK
California
0.5
0
1990
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
New Developments
Decrease in Transport CO2 Emissions: 2002-2005
Indexed to 1990, IEA data, France, Germany and Japan
1.35
1.3
1.25
Road France
1.2
Road Germany
Road Japan
1.15
GDP France
1.1
GDP Germany
GDP Japan
1.05
1
0.95
1990
1995
2000
2005
Outline
“Mind the Gap”: Trends in the Transport Sector
Which Policies at What Cost?
•
•
•
•
Our review of Transport GHG Policies
Decision framework: Cost Effectiveness
Evidence of Transport GHG Marginal Abatement Costs
Focus on Fuel Efficiency and Biofuels
Transport Policy Implications and Priorities
What is being done?
ITF Transport Sector Emissions:
Potential Impact of Current Policies
6,000
700 Mt CO2
4,000
3,000
The 400 transport measures adopted
so far should save 700 Mt CO2 in 2010
2,000
1,000
IEA projection of transport emissions
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
Million tonnes of CO2
5,000
Principles and Guidance
Cost-effectiveness matters
• Cost-effectiveness fundamental determinant of which
abatement policies to adopt
• Transport reported to have high marginal abatement costs,
evidence that this is not so much the case
– More rigourous abatement cost analysis needed
• High cost measures have attracted political support:
Hydrogen, Biofuels, Modal shift, Hybrids … despite
sometimes low effectiveness or robust quantification of
GHG reduction
• Effective measures have weak political support but high
potential (net negative cost measures: EU 9.5Mt/yr in 2012,
28Mt/yr by 2020, tyres, lubricants, engines, eco-driving)
Fuel Efficiency: Potential
• Tyres, cruise control, air con effective, lubricants:
combined these could save up 5-10% of fuel.
• Reducing vehicle weight important: evidence indicates this
can be done without compromising safety
• More ambitious measures might deliver up to a factor 2
improvement by 2035 – but this will be challenging and a
crucial question remains: how will people use their fuel
savings?
Designing support for Biofuels
• GHG impacts highly variable: some positive, many
negative: Must account for soil-released CO2 and
Nitrogen
• Should not subsidise high CO2 abatement ($5201340/ton CO2) when lower cost alternatives available.
• Volumetric targets inappropriate
Likely to favour worst performing, lowest cost production
• Transport fuel carbon content targets better
• Certification for biofuels production
• Fuel carbon taxes, including for biofuels, would be more
cost-effective than subsidies or targets
Outline
“Mind the Gap”: Trends in the Transport Sector
Which Policies at What Cost?
Transport Policy Implications and Priorities
Road Transport Policy packages
• Pricing important: London and Stockholm = -20% CO2,
German heavy goods vehicle charge.
• Public Transport, Integrated Land Use Planning, Strategic
Infrastructure Investment all can have large co-benefits…
and can deliver other benefits even if climate impact difficult
to quantify.
• Vehicle efficiency measures deliver the most quantifiable
cuts
• … but sectors deliver GHG reductions on different time
scales – least-cost pathway modelling for the UK shows
Transport contributing later and less than other sectors.
Long-term: UK
UK Modeled CO2 Emission Reductions by Sector
Scenario Showing Least Cost Route to 60% Reduction by 2050
Source: Markal-Macro model
Short-term: Japan
Transport CO2 Reduction Strategy 2002-2010, Japan
300
295
“Business as Usual”
w/out Fuel efficiency
274
“Business as Usual”
w/ Fuel efficiency
250
Gov’t. Transport Target
290
280
270
268
268
267
264
260
262
257
260
257
250
actual
240
230
Freight Modal Shift
and Logistics: -8.4mt
220
Eco-driving, Clean Veh.
Biofuels: -8.2mt
217
210
Traffic Flow: -5.1mt
200
Public Transport
and ITS: -2.8mt
1990
source: MLIT, 2007
1995
1997
2000
2002 2003
2005
2010
Some Issues for Maritime Transport
• NOx – SOx trade-off (Acid rain, Air quality vs. Global Warming).
• Uncertainty on the total Radiative forcing of Maritime.
• International regulatory context: IMO (fuels, CO2 index for vessels,
trading). Weak flag state implication and slow action may lead to
regional solutions.
• Lower speed (-5%=-15% CO2), operational and institutional barriers.
• Low(er) CO2 fuels – Marine Diesel Oil? Refinery impact?
• Technical measures: hull optimization, choice of propeller, efficient
powerplants, in-engine improvements such as fuel injection, heat
recovery systems and measures that reduce ship hull friction (2030% saved for existing and new vessels respectively) – but also
using on-shore power, wind power.
• Long vessel life-span (hull and engine design today matters in 15-25
years)
Thank You
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