Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
WMO DRR Expert Meeting
IOC Tsunami Warning Systems,
Operational National end-to-end
Systems, Co-ordination and Support
Geneva, November 27 2007
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
1
Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
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Established in 1960 in UNESCO
Purpose
to promote international cooperation and to
coordinate programmes in
research, services and capacity-building,
in order to learn more about the nature and
resources of the ocean and coastal areas and to
apply that knowledge for the improvement of
management, sustainable development, the
protection of the marine environment, and the
decision-making process of its Member States
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
2
Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission

Mandated by IOC Assembly resolutions in
1960, 2005 and 2007

Mandate extended to multi-hazard approach,
– Specifically sea-level based hazards
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Global oversight Working Group TOWS under
Assembly established to
- ensure coherency and consistency
- provide uniform governance structure
Mandated under UNGA 61
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
3
Intergovernmental Coordination
Group for the Pacific Tsunami Warning
and Mitigation System
1965: IOC established the ICG/ITSU
International Coordination Group for the
Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific
(PTWC headquarters)
- successful & operational
Tsunami Warning & Mitigation system
 2005: IOC established the ICG/IOTWS,
ICG/NEAMTWS, ICG/CARIBE-EWS
 2007: IOC establishes TOWS (global
supervisory)
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Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
4
United Nations role:
What is the System?
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
Define the proper scale of problem and its
solution.
The system must be:
– Fully owned by countries in region
– Based on international multilateral
cooperation
– Based on open and free data exchange
– Protect ALL countries in region
– Transparent and accountable to all members
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
5
End-to-End System
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
6
ISSUE TIME OF PTWC INITIAL BULLETINS FOR
TELESEISMS
100
MINUTES SINCE QUAKE
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
EVENT TIME (YEAR)
FACTS:
• Every Ocean Basin and Sea impacted
• Next tsunami can occur anywhere and any time
• Some countries have coasts on 2 or more basins
• No Early Tsunami Warning Systems outside Pacific in 2004
• Comprehensive Tsunami Mitigation Programme required
Hazard Risk Assessment, Preparedness, Warning Guidance
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
9
Besides the Pacific system three more regions
to coordinate
Criteria
-relevant
-appropriate
-affordable
-robust
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
10
Designing a GLOBAL Tsunami
Warning and Mitigation System
3 Oceans
4 Seas
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
11
IOC in UN partnership
IOC
ISDR
Public awareness
Preparedness
Warning guidance
Hazard assessment
Mitigation
WMO
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
Communication
(GTS)
Multi-hazard
12
How does it function?
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Is based on the joint operation of
international networks of detection connected
with national tsunami warning centres
UN governance provided under the IOC
Each nation is responsible for issuing
warnings in their territory and protect its own
population.
National centres must have strong links with
emergency preparedness authorities
(national, provincial and local)
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
13
REGIONAL ELEMENTS (Pacific):
Regional Tsunami Warning
and Mitigation System
National
National
National
TWC
National
TWC
National
National
TWC
TWC
TWC
TWS
WC/ATWC
NWPTAC
PTWC
Regional
TWC
International
Tsunami
Information
Centre (ITIC)
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
14
Describing the System
PRESENT:
PTWS: PTWC, WC/ATWC, JMA
Interim System (PTWC, JMA)
FUTURE PTWS?
Intl System comprised of Natl/
sub-regional TWC as countries
develop their own centres
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
15
Indian Ocean
Where are we now?
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A single system being established
All countries of Indian Ocean participate
Interim Tsunami advisory information from
centres in Hawaii and Tokyo.
National 7/24 Focal Points in 26 nations
Governance under UN/IOC
Full scope of task recognized:
multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3)
Joint UN implementation: IOC, WMO, ISDR,
UNDP, UN-ESCAP
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
16
Status and achievements
in the ICG/IOTWS process
(mainly through ISDR Flash Appeal)
• 28 real-time sea level stations
• 25 new broadband seismometers
• Dozen technical training courses on tsunami modelling
and seismic analysis
• 19 TW capacity assessment missions
• Tsunami Warning Emergency Standard Operations
Procedures for Indonesia (2006-07)
• TsunamiTeacher: multi-purpose educational toolkit in
English and Bahasa Indonesia (7 more languages
under way)
• Various educational material
on tsunamis
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
• 23 country assessment missions
17
The unseen part of
post-disaster recovery process
is an Early Warning System
Two major tasks:
- Identify, detect, verify and predict
natural extrema, such as tsunami, cyclones,
earthquakes with potential implications to
mankind (upstream component)
- Raise awareness and preparedness to react
appropriately to warnings of such extreme
events (downstream component)
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
18
TWO ENTITIES CRITICALan
(Pacific
experience): EWS
IMPLEMENTING
EFFECTIVE
2.
WARNING CENTRE provides warning guidance
incl Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings;
Local (educate), distant (monitor and warn)
NDMO (recognized authority) receives warning,
immediately evaluates/translates,
disseminates public message
Additionally, hazard and risk, preparedness guidance

BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER
1.
3. EWS SUSTAINABILITY – MULTI-HAZARDS APPROACH
4. COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, esp. for
regional and distant tsunamis
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
19
What are the essential information
for Civil Defense and the emergency plan ?
The warning centre must provide:
1) Information on the earthquake:
– location and magnitude
2) Information on tsunami
– time of tsunami arrival
– Importance of the tsunami
(i.e, est. of amplitude of the tsunami)
3) Seriousness of the warning
evaluation of the danger
associated rescues to be forecasted
(Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)
THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS
• VERY RAPID
EARTHQUAKE EVAL
• VERY RAPID
SEA LEVEL EVAL
• VERY RELIABLE
COMMUNICATIONS
IO Core Seismic Network
Multi-national, Global Nets
Real-time transmission
Data Sharing
 ALL REQUIRED
FOR WARNING
IOC GLOSS IO Network for tsunami monitoring
A perfect warning will be useless
if people do not know what to do
in case of an emergency
Awareness and preparedness at the
country/community level is essential
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
22
TAKING ACTION - WHAT TO DO:
MOST TIMELY WARNINGS - HOW?
 TO ACT FAST WITHOUT CONFUSION
Develop/implement TWC and TERP SOP
 TO ACT FASTER / MAKE SURE IT WORKS, PRACTICE
Test communications, end-to-end response
before the real thing
Conduct Drills since tsunamis infrequent
BEST, LONG-TERM PREPAREDNESS
 BUILD TSUNAMI ADVOCACY GROUPS
Resilient self-motivated, communities
How? People-centered
No simple process, no simple answers
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
23
Successes, Failures - 2006
How the Pacific is responding:
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3 May, TONGA, M7.9 - Media causes NZ evac, not Natl auth
26 Dec, TAIWAN, M6.9 - Media reports though ‘small’; telecom
delays due to undersea cable disruption
=> PTWC to provide HEADS-UP (EQ Obs Msg)
17 Jul, JAVA, INDONESIA, M7.7 - Slow earthquake, but
downstream dissemination and coordination not in place
=> SOP development, End-to-End TWC to Locals
IOC (TWC); Local: IOC, UNDP, Germany, IFRC, USA +
national/local partners; Sept - present / continuing
28 Sep, SAMOA, M6.9 - local tsunami - highlighting again
the need for local/sub-regional eq/tsunami alert system.
In 2006, total of 13 earthquakes > M6.5
=> SWP TWG (PTWS) - ongoing
ITP-Hawaii Training (Tonga, Samoa TWC / NDMO), Oct
IOC PTWS / WMO Reg V /SPREP TWC ws, Apr 2007
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
24
Successes, Failures - 2006
How the Pacific is responding:
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15 Oct, HAWAII, M6.7 - felt EQ but below warning threshold so
no message issued - public wants info; statewide power outage
hampers communications
=> Advisory Clear-the-beach - new msg for Hawaii / USA
15 Nov, KURILS, M8.3 - Warning issued but cancelled,
but criteria for cancellation not universally defined. No closein-time direct confirmation of tsunami generation.
International coordination needed.
13 Jan 2007, KURILS, M8.1 - repeat of 15 Nov
=> PTWS TWC Coordination Mtg, Jan 2007
8 PTWS TWC + IOC
Extensive discussion on all aspects of warning
21 Jan 2007, MOLUCCA SEA, INDONESIA, M7.5 Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC
TCU, Paris
quick response with Indonesia
downstream
dissemination
25
TAKING ACTION - 7 steps
1. KNOW and UNDERSTAND tsunamis, risk
2. RECOGNIZE natural warning signals
3. PLAN, and IMPLEMENT warning system
(monitor, detect, evaluate, warn)
4. MONITOR and WARN everyone
5. MAKE AWARE diverse audiences
6. KEEP preparedness going forever
System readiness - practice to improve
Personal responsibility
7. PREVENT damage by making stronger
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
26
Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
Observations:
- Awareness
- Preparedness
- Detection, verification
- Response
- Relief
- Recovery
Remarks:
Training is Capacity Building at all levels, steps for
those operating the and in the TWS
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
27
Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
Downstream activities:
- Define standards, reference material, codes,
definitions of terminology on risk, hazard,
vulnerability,
- Economical, ecological, societal impact studies
- “Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get at the
people on the beach
- Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end system
- How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”?
Ownership, stakeholder attitude
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
28
Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
Downstream activities:
- Define planning/zoning standards, ICAM
- Develop building codes, ISEEE
- Define, introduce unique signage ISO
- Awareness material to be “regionalized”: ISDR,
IFRC, WHO, WMO
- Develop legal instruments: UN Ocean, DOALOS,
- Advise on streamlining administrations
- OECD, UNDP, UN Sec, others
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
29
Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
Research Needs:
- hi-tech end: better source identification
-
- earthquake, tsunami generation, propagation
modelling, coastal inundation maps
Lo-tech end: appropriate national communication
systems, governance, increase awareness,
preparedness: establish civil defense structures,
coastal planning, building codes
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
30
Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission
Research Needs:
- Clear definitions of risk, hazard, vulnerability,
- Economical, ecological, societal impact studies
- “Regionalize”: entrain regional cultures to get at the
people on the beach
- Be aware of relevance/impact on end-to-end system
- How to demonstrate to nations it is “theirs”?
Ownership, stakeholder attitude
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
31
Conclusions
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O
O
O
O
O
O
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-
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O
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standardization of means and contents
keep it simple, get it cheaper
get sustained funding
don’t overload the people involved
training at all levels, again and again
upstream:
clear responsibilities, instant reaction
90 s off warning interval cost extra
7 MUS$/y
downstream:
low tech, simple message, trained response
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
32
A perfect warning will be useless
if people do not know what to do
in case of an emergency
Awareness and preparedness at the
country level is essential
Peter Koltermann, UNESCO/IOC TCU, Paris
33
“We cannot stop natural calamities, but we
can and must better equip individuals and
communities to withstand them.”
“Should disaster strike again,
and it will in some part of the world,
we must be able to say that we did everything
humanly possible to build resilient societies.”
former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
Thank You