Private & Confidential
1
Speaker
Introduction
Private & Confidential
Speaker
▪
Hong Kong incorporated company operating within Mongolia’s property,
cement and financial services industries
▪ Established in 2002
▪ Profitable every year since inception
▪
The leading Mongolian real estate developer
▪ Award winning development and construction companies
▪ Over 40,000 sqm of completed developments
▪ Over 30,000 sqm currently under construction
▪ Mongolia’s largest and most valuable land bank
▪
Additional strategic businesses
▪
Largest real estate agency in Mongolia
▪
Only cement producing facility in the nation’s capital
▪
A leading SME finance company and equities brokerage
▪
World class management and governance structure
▪ Simple, transparent capital structure
▪ lFRS compliant and audited by a big 4 firm
▪ Majority owned and operated by founding partners
▪ Near term plans to list on an international exchange
Lee Cashell, Founder, Chairman & CEO;
Formerly a private equity fund manager in Hong
Kong for JAFCO Investment Asia, Mr. Cashell has
held various positions within the investment
banking industry in Asia as an economist, financial
analyst and corporate finance manager. He
founded APIP in 2002.
APIP is Ideally positioned to benefit from the high growth generated by Mongolia’s mining boom
Private & Confidential
2
Mongolia
Overview
Private & Confidential
Overview
Capital: Ulaanbaatar
Population: 1.3 Million
•
Mining Industry accounts (Oxford Business
Group)
▪ 22% of GDP Output
▪ 85% of FDI
▪ 94% of Export Value
•
Coal production estimated to reach 121 million
metric tons by 2020 (Earnst & Young)
•
Mongolia owns the world’s 12th largest copper
deposits (Earnst & Young)
•
Mining is estimated to account for 10.3% of
GDP Growth Rate Expected in 2014 (World
Bank)
Private & Confidential
Snapshot
Investment Positives
2013/14 Developments
•
Stable democracy
•
Repealed unattractive foreign investment law
•
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals
•
Scrapped controversial mineral law
•
Large natural resource reserves
•
Implemented investment friendly law
•
Large FDI inflow
•
Oyu Tolgoi dispute working towards a resolution
•
No cross border capital control
•
New securities law in place
•
Low tax environment
Private & Confidential
Regulations and FDI
Investment
Law Changes
2012 Strategic Entities Foreign Investment Law (SEFIL)::
▪ Potentially restrict foreign capital’s access to strategic
sectors, including natural resources industry
▪ Acquiring majority stake in those strategic sectors now
need both government and parliamentary approvals.
2013 New Investment Law replaced 2012’s SEFIL:
▪ Foreign state-owned business entities are required
to go through government approval only
FDI (USD bn)
5
4
3
2
1
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
2014P*
FDI (USD bn)
Source: World Bank
Oyu Tolgoi
Mine Project
Private & Confidential
In 2009, Oyu Tolgoi Investment
Agreement(OTIA) was made between
Rio Tinto PLC and the Mongolian
Government; 5% Mining Royalty was
imposed on revenue
In 2011, Mongolian
parliamentary members
demanded a full renegotiation
of the OTIA; the royalty
demand was increased from
5% to 20%
In 2013, instead of full renegotiation,
the Mongolian government demanded
changes in 22 points of dispute
concerning financial matters
Comparisons
GDP Growth
Doing
Corruption
FDI % of GDP
Average 2004Business Perception Index
2012°
2012°
Index 2013°
2013*
GDP Growth Rate
Forecast 2014°
Tax regime†
Sovereign
Ratings
%
VAT %
Capital Gains
Tax %
Moody’s
83
43.3
10
0
B1
96
80
3.1
17
25
Aa3
7.8
134
94
1.3
12.5-15
20
Baa3
7.7
5.8
120
114
3.1
10
20
Baa3
Myanmar
6.9
N/A
182
157
N/A
1.5-20
40 *
N/A
Philippines
6.6
5.2
108
94
1.1
0-12
10-Jun
Baa3
Vietnam
5.4
6.5
99
116
5.4
10-May
22
B1
%
%
Mongolia
10.3
8.9
76
China
7.2
10.5
India
5.5
Indonesia
° World Bank
* Transparency International
† Ernst & Young
Private & Confidential
The Lower the Better
* 10% for Resident Companies and 40% for Non-resident Companies
* Myanmar Statistics are from PrincewaterhouseCoopers
Fundamentals
GDP Per Capita Growth Rate (%)
20
•
GDP per capita doubled between 2005 and
2012, and it is expected to double again
over the next five years – the fastest
growth rate in Asia
15
10
5
•
•
Much of this growth has been powered by
the huge copper/gold project at Oyu Tolgoi,
owned by Rio Tinto and the Government of
Mongolia
Huge FDI inflows began to cool in 2012 with
the introduction of a controversial foreign
investment law
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-5
Mongolia
China
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Vietnam
Sources: World Bank
GDP Per Capita (PPP)
12000
10000
•
In October 2013, Parliament passed a new
investment law much more open to foreign
investment
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
2001
2002
Mongolia
Private & Confidential
2003
China
2004
2005
India
2006
2007
Indonesia
2008
2009
Philippines
2010
2011
2012
Vietnam
Source: World Bank
3
Mongolian
Real Estate
Market
Private & Confidential
Legal and Tax Regulations
International Comparison
Tax
•
0% capital gains tax
•
2% stamp duty
•
10% income tax
•
No capital controls
Mongolia
Income Tax
Flat tax at 10%
Corporate Income
Tax
Variable tax ranging
from 10% to 25% if
incorporated in
Mongolia, 20%
otherwise
China
Kazakhstan
Hong Kong
Russia
10% tax on
employment
Variable tax
income, 15% on Variable tax from Flat tax at
from 3% to
capital gains,
2% to 17%
30%
45%
20% on ‘other
income’
Flat rate of
25%
Flat rate of
20%
Flat rate of 16.5%
(15% for
Flat rate of
unincorporated
20%
businesses)
Standard rate of
15% of net
Up to 1.5%
assessable
depending
property value as
on
determined by
cadastral
rent, minus 20%,
value
maintenance
allowance
Legal
•
Foreigners enjoy same property rights as
nationals
•
“Floating Freehold” Title
Private & Confidential
Property Ownership
Tax
Variable between
0.6% and 1.0%
None
Variable
between 1%
and 1.5%
Value Added Tax
10%
17%
12%
None
18%
Market Performance
Rising Demand...
•
Rise in real estate market value
•
Strong demand with supply side
constraints
•
Large increase in average disposable
income
•
Average Price (USD/sqm)
3,000
2,500
2,000
Subsidized government mortgage policy
1,500
… Causing Prices to Increase
1,000
•
Continued FDI inflow from the mining
boom
•
More than 53% of Ulaanbaatar’s
citizens (approx. 750,000 people) live in
the ‘ger’ districts
500
Ulaanbaatar is expected to witness
significant immigration from the 50% of
Mongolians that live outside of the city
0
•
Residency
Residence
Temple
View
Park View
Mon House
2005
2006
2007
2008
Average Residential Sales Prices
Private & Confidential
2009
2010
2011
2012
Average Retail Sales Prices
2013
Asia Pacific Investment Partners
Domestic Growth and Foreign Investment
GDP Growth vs. UB Property Price
Domestic Growth
•
Continuous construction despite
setback in economy
•
Bright future investor prospects with
positive growth and increasing
property prices
20
18
18
16
14
13
12
10
8
8
6
3
4
UB Property $US/sqm
Consistent GDP growth since 2001
GDP Growth %
•
23
2
Foreign Investment
•
•
Predicted rise in FDI with newly passed
investment law in Q4 2013
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
UB Property
FDI vs. Construction in UB
Increase in construction despite
slowing foreign direct investment (FDI)
Construction serving real estate
demand with increased immigration
into Ulaanbaatar
2006
GDP Growth
2012
2013
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
4
3
2
1
0
2003
2005
2007
FDI
Private & Confidential
0
Sources: Mongolian Properties;
Invest Mongolia
5
FDI (US$ bln)
•
2005
2009
Construction
2011
UB Construction (US$ mil)
-2
2013
Sources: National Statistics
Office of Mongolia; World Bank
•
•
•
2.8%
3.3%
4.0%
4.5%
4.8%
4.9%
5.0%
5.3%
5.7%
6.1%
6.3%
6.3%
0%
16%
Luxury Residential Price & Yield Ranking, Q1 2013 Title35,000
14%
Prices per square meter are lower than
in many other developed and emerging
economies
Prime property prices start at around
US$2600
Bright future investor prospects with
positive growth and increasing
property prices
Private & Confidential
30,000
12%
Luxury residential price US$/sqm
10%
Yield
8%
•
10.5%
6%
Liquid rental market and undersupply
means yields will remain high
Price
•
6.3%
3%
6.7%
Average rental yields exceed 12% per
annum
6.7%
9%
7.0%
Mongolia outperforms all other
developed and emerging economies in
terms of rental yield
Prime Rental Yield Ranking, Q1 2013
7.9%
•
12%
13.0%
Yield
15%
13.6%
International Comparison
6%
25,000
20,000
15,000
4%
10,000
2%
5,000
0%
0
4
Commercial
Real Estate
Private & Confidential
Commercial Real Estate Overview
Domestic Growth
•
Rise in purchasing power
•
Arrival of more luxury retailers in
Ulaanbaatar
•
Growing retail occupancy rate,
especially for high end brands such as
Louis Vuitton
Average Monthly Income (USD)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average
Undervalued Retail Space
•
•
Professionals
Service Workers
Source: Mongolian National Statistics Office
Undervalued even compared to other
frontier and emerging markets
Average Monthly Retail Rental
Colliers, APIP
120
High retail space rental yields in prime
locations
Expected increase in asset value
appreciation
Cost/sqm (US$)
•
Senior Managers
100
80
60
40
20
0
Downtown Ulaanbaatar
Private & Confidential
Jakarta
Downtown Hanoi
APIP Survey
Year
Retail Brands Arriving in Mongolia
New Retail Space Occupied m2
2009
500
1,260
2011
Louis Vuitton, Ermenegildo Zegna
Burberry, Emporio Armani, Marie Marie, Mont
Blanc, Tommy Hilfiger, Pianegonda, United
Colors of Benetton, L’Occitane, Victorinox,
Hugo Boss
Tag Heuer, Guess, Ulysses Nardin
2012
Bang and Olufsen, Timberland, Hublot
240
2013
Mango, UGG, Versace, Pal Zileri, Vertu, KFC,
Cinnabon, Round Table Pizza, Coffee Bean &
Tea Leaf
1,140
2014
Petit Bateau, Frey Wille, Coccinelle, Zara,
Daminai, Vertu, Karen Miller
N/A
2010
• More than 40 international brands have opened up exclusive
franchises or wholly owned outlets in Ulaanbaatar to date, the
majority in the past three years
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232
• Strong mid-range brand performance suggests that Mongolian
consumption patterns may be distinct from those in other rapidly
growing Asian markets, including China
Leasing comparable data
Comparable data
▪
The retail landscape in Ulaanbaatar is both underdeveloped and
fragmented
▪
The main tenants by property are as follows:
▪ Central Tower – Louis Vuitton, Burberry, L’Occitane, Hugo Boss
▪ Blue Sky Hotel – Various small operators in an arcade format
▪ Naran Mall – Esprit, Adidas, Swarovski, Tag Heuer, CK,
Timberland
Private & Confidential
•
The vast majority of retail stock is single floor, soviet-style shop
fronts along the side of the road
▪ There are relatively few international grade spaces in the city
▪ Comparative data is limited and none of the global brokers
maintain a permanent presence in Mongolia
Commercial Real Estate Case Study
The Village @ Nukht
•
Project completion: Summer 2014
•
Total plot size: 10,000 sqm
•
Total GFA: 10,000 sqm
•
Commercial Units: 8,000 sqm
retail units, coffee shops,
wine shops, bakery
restaurants, Brauhaus Pub
Office Space, wedding hall
•
Residential units: 2,000 sqm
8 luxury penthouses
Average Price (USD/sqm)
•
Residential: $2600
•
Commercial: $2600
Private & Confidential
Investment Opportunity: Village @ Nukht
12% Guaranteed Rental
Yield for Two Years
Units Available
•
Total of 28 units available
•
16 available units on the 1st floor
Average Price (USD/sqm)
•
$2600
•
125sqm property will cost US$325,000
Private & Confidential
5
Residential
Real Estate
Private & Confidential
Overview
“Increased Market Appetite for High-end
Housing”
Ulaanbaatar Average Residential Sales Prices (USD per sqm)
3,000
2,500
2,000
•
Existing Demand Surpasses Market Supply
1,500
▪
1,000
Quality Residential Space per capita is
less than 10 sqm per person
500
0
•
▪
▪
•
2005
Large Increase in Demand is Expected
50% of Mongolians (1.5 Million) live
outside Ulaanbaatar
Over 53% of Ulaanbaatar Citizens
(750,000) still live in pre-modern
housing
2007
2009
2011
Historical Price and APIP Forecast Price
2013
2015
2017
Confidence Interval (Upper Bound)
Confidence Interval (Lower Bound)
Ulaanbaatar Average Residential Rental Prices(USD per sqm)
50
40
Macroeconomic Growth will Drive Rise in
Demand
▪
▪
Rise in real wages along with economic
growth
Emergence of upper middle class fuels
demand for luxury housing
30
20
10
0
2005
2007
2009
Historical Price and APIP Forecast Price
Confidence Interval (Lower Bound)
Private & Confidential
2011
2013
2015
2017
Confidence Interval (Upper Bound)
Residential Real Estate Case Study
APIP’s Current Projects
Within Central Ulaanbaatar:
1. Olympic Residence
2. Park Place Residence
3. Oasis Residence
APIP’s Completed Projects:
4. Mon House Residence
5. Park View Residence
6. Temple View Residence
7. Regency Residence
3
6
5
7
1
4
2
Private & Confidential
The Mon House
Mon House: 2005
•
Conveniently located near the State
Circus, the Mon House features a lift, 24
hour security, and views of the southern
mountain range
•
11 floors of residential apartment space
with heated parking garage large enough
to accommodate over 56 vehicles
•
Children’s playground as well as close
access to restaurants and cafes
•
High quality construction – built to
withstand a magnitude 8 earthquake
•
45% rental yield per annum
•
400% asset value appreciation since
completion
Private & Confidential
45% Rental Yield 400% Appreciation
Park View
Park View: 2007
•
Park View Residence features 31
luxurious, fully furnished rental
apartments in the heart of Ulaanbaatar
•
Spread across 7 floors of residential space
•
Close proximity to Chinggis Khan square
and many restaurants and cafes
•
Three floors of mixed-use commercial
space, including office space on the first
floor
•
35% rental yield per annum
•
400% asset value appreciation since
completion
Private & Confidential
35% Rental Yield 400% Appreciation
Temple View
Temple View: 2009
•
Units in this building have 2-3 bedrooms,
2 bathrooms, and an open plan kitchen
•
Average unit size is 130 sqm
•
Complex features 24 hour security, large
windows, and cable/internet access
•
Centrally located just South of Chinggis
Khan Square, overlooking the monastery
•
18% rental yield per annum
•
100% asset value appreciation
Private & Confidential
18% Rental Yield 100% Appreciation
The Regency Residence
Regency Residence: 2010
•
Houses 97 luxury apartments and
penthouses spread across thirteen floors
•
Three large office spaces on the second
floor as well as restaurant and cafes on
the first
•
Conveniently located near the Blue Sky
Tower, Central Tower, and Mongolia’s
most high class retail spaces
•
Only ten minutes from the train station
and 20 from the national airport
•
24% rental yield per annum
•
300% capital appreciation since
completion
Private & Confidential
24% Rental Yield 300% Appreciation
Company Growth
Company Growth
•
Raised US$15 million in April 2013 on a
pre-money valuation of US$140 million
•
Successful Completion of US$12.6 million
capital raising on June 3, 2014
•
The Village @ Nukht and the Olympic
Residence are on track to be completed
by summer 2014 and 2015, respectively
Private & Confidential
Net Income Growth
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Contact Information
Mongolia
Asia Pacific Investment Partners
Regency Residence
16 Olympic Street
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Hong Kong
Lee M. Cashell,
Chief Executive Officer
Cashell@apipcorp.com
Asia Pacific Investment Partners
Unit 301, 3/F Winsome House,
73 Wyndham Street,
Central, Hong Kong
United Kingdom
Asia Pacific Investment Partners
47 Charles Street
Mayfair, London
W1J 5EL
Gema Gerelsaikhan
Sales & Marketing
Manager
+852 2805 7796
Gema@apipcorp.com
Private & Confidential
www.apip.com
www.invest-mongolia.com
http://www.mongolia-properties.com/
E-mail: andrew@apipcorp.com