Road Map to a Sustainable Future
Dr. Kelly Kissock
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
University of Dayton
Sustainability
 What is “sustainability” and why is
everybody talking about it?
 This presentation is about
Something that is unsustainable
• Why it is important, and
• What we can do about it
•
 Hint: it’s the central challenge for your
generation and the next 100 years.
What on Earth Are These?
World Energy Use
World Economic
Output
World Population
Converting Heat to Work
Since pre-history we knew how to:
Work
Heat
Industrial Revolution to:
Work
Heat
Newcomen’s Steam Engine
~1712
Revolutionary Change
 Transforms economy: textile production
increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%
 Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50%
 Transforms family: parents leave home to work
 Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad
 Technology and population explode
Economic Explosion
 From 1700-2000,
per capita
US/Europe
income grows
from $600 to
$18,000 per year
 Increases 30x!
Energy Revolution
Creates Modern World
Single Most Important Event
in Human History
We’ve Come a Long Way…

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


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Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5%
Watt’s steam engine: 1%
Gasoline engines: 30%
Coal Rankine cycles: 35%
Turbines: 40%
Diesel engines: 50%
Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%
But Energy Conversion
Largely Unchanged…
1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels
2. Employ combustion to release heat
CH4+2 (O2) = CO2+2 (H20)
3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion
84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels
 In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels
 Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005
Resource Constraints
M. King Hubbert
Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:
US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973
Actual U.S. Oil Production:
Peaks in 1972
Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html U.S has 2% of world oil reserves.
Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:
World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000
Cambell’s 1998 Prediction:
World Oil Will Peak in 2006
THE END OF CHEAP OIL, Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, Scientific American, March 1998
Kissock’s Prediction:
World Oil Peaks in 2015 (if 1,800 BB)
30
25
BB
20
15
10
5
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Hubbert Curve
Actual
“World Oil Resources’ 1994 brackets world reserves between 1,800 and 2,600 BB
Kissock’s Prediction:
World Oil Peaks in 2030 (if 2,600 BB)
“World Oil Resources’ 1994 brackets world reserves between 1,800 and 2,600 BB
Kissock’s Prediction:
World Oil Peaks in 2045 (if 3,600 BB)
If reserves = (2 x 1,800 BB) due to “fracing” and “directional drilling”
Extreme Oil
“Oil sands and offshore drilling are both
symptoms of the same problem: We’re
running out of easy oil.”
Simon Dyer
Canada’s Oil Sands
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Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia
#1 source of imported oil for US (22%)
GHG production 5% - 15% greater than domestic oil
Surface mining (20%):
•
•
•
•

Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil
1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings
Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed
1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond
In situ mining (80%):
•
•
Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface
Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process
Deep Water Drilling
 Gulf of Mexico
6,000 wells
• Progressively deeper water
• Deepwater Horizon: 5,000 ft
water
• Gulf produces 27% of U.S.
output (U.S. has 2% of world oil
resources)
•
Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/
 Brazil’s Tupi Field:
7,200 ft water + 15,000 ft
sandstone/rock salt
• $1 million/day to operate
platform
• Deep water rigs produce 6% of
world output
•
Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/
World Natural Gas:
Near Peak Production
120
10^12 ft3
100
80
60
40
20
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Hubbert Curve
Actual
Peak production = 2018
Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004
World Coal: Peak Production 2050?
10,000
10^6 tons
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Hubbert Curve
Actual
Peak production = 2060
Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004
Consequences of Peak Fuel
Rising demand and falling supply:
• increases fuel prices
• reduces expendable income
• increases trade deficits of oil-importing countries
• supports oil-rich regimes (Russia, Middle East,
Venezuela)
Environmental Perspective
“Using energy in today’s ways leads
to more environmental damage than
any other peaceful human activity.”
The Economist, 1990.
95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution
from Fossil Fuels
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
99%
95%
95%
40%
73%
70%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CO2
SO2
NOx
VOC
CO
Global CO2 Concentration
• Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm
Coincident Global Warming
Hansen, J., “Is There
Still Time to Avoid
Dangerous
Anthropogenic
Interference with
Global Climate?”,
American Geophysical
Union, 2005.
Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4)
Atmospheric Molecules
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
Historical Temperature/CO2 Correlation
“Changing Climate”,
Stephen Schneider,
Scientific American,
10/1989
Greenhouse Gas Trends
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, 2001,
“Summary for Policymakers”
Greenhouse Effect
 John Tyndall 1860
 Investigated if Earth’s
atmosphere acts as greenhouse
 N2 (80%):
No
 O2 (19%):
No
 CO2, H20, CH4 (<1%): Yes!
Planet Temperatures
Without Atmospheres (NASA)
167 C
-19 C
-89 C
Mercury
Earth
Venus
Planet Temperatures
With Atmospheres (NASA)
464 C
96.5% CO2
0% CO2
167 C 167 C
15 C
<1% CO2
-19 C
-89 C
Mercury
Earth
Venus
Result: Earth Quickly Warming
Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research
Warming Most Pronounced At Poles
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps
Rising Sea Level
& Low Elevation Flooding
And the List Goes On…
 Drought
 Severe weather
 Mass extinctions (30% of species lose
range)
 Accelerating non-linear irreversible process
•
•
Methane release from thawing “perma-frost”
Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…
Local News: 2011
Source: Sierra 12/2007
Cincinnati Days > 90 F
18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High Emissions)
Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio,
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009
Midwest Spring Rainfall
Increases 30% (High Emission)
Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio,
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009
Debate?
 Consensus view from:
•
•
•
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)
Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’
 Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004):
•
•
•
All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 – 2004 with
key words “climate change”.
Found 983 papers
NONE disagreed with consensus position
Linear Model of Production
Fossil Fuel
Resources
Atmosphere
Fossil
Fuel
Energy
CO2 &
Pollution
Energy Out
Economy
Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up
Ecological Model of Production
Biological
Technical
Our Challenge: Sustainable Prosperity
Today
How Much How Fast?
 C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E
 Business as usual case 2000-2050
•
•
•
•
•
Pop increases by 1.5x
$/Pop increases by 4x
E/$ constant
C/E constant
C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C2000
 Carbon stabilization case
•
•
•
C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C2000
3x improvement in energy efficiency
2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy
 50% carbon reduction case
•
•
6x improvement in energy efficiency
2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy
Actual Progress?
 2010 Carbon emissions increase 5.9%, largest annual increase
ever
 C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E
 C2010 = X1 Pop x X2 $/Pop x X3 E/$ x X4 C/E = 1.059 C2009
US Carbon Stabilization Scenario
Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007
California Story
California Energy Efficiency
= 1 Billion Cars
US Energy Efficiency =
77% Demand for New Energy Services
US Energy Efficiency
• National Lighting and Appliance Efficiency Standards
•
Initially signed by President Reagan in 1987, updated many times since
•
"Standards have been a bipartisan energy policy success story
stretching across four decades and five presidencies.“
•
“Existing standards reduced U.S. electricity use by 7 percent in 2010
and 14 percent by 2035 as consumers and businesses purchase new
products compliant with the latest standards”
•
“Updated standards by 2015 would reduce 2035 electricity use by
another 7 percent.
•
“A typical household's total electric bill over this period would be about
33% higher absent efficiency standards.”
•
“The cost of more efficient products pays back in lower utility bills
within about 3 years, with net benefits outweighing costs by 4 to 1.”
Source: “The Efficiency Boom: Cashing In on Savings from Appliance Standards” ACEEE
2012
US Energy Efficiency
• Building Codes
•
Residential Codes typically based on International Residential Code:
2000, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012…"
•
Commercial codes typically based on:
•
•
•
ASHRAE Standard 90.1: 1975, …, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010…” or
International Energy Conservation Code: 2000, 2001, 2003,
2004, 2006, 2009, 2012…“
IECC 2012 results in 30% more energy savings in both residential and
commercial buildings than IECC 2006. This meets goal set forth by U.S.
DOE
IECC 2012
• IECC 2012 results in 30% more energy savings in both residential and
commercial buildings than IECC 2006. This meets goal set forth by U.S. DOE.
• Residential Changes
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•
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•A mandatory air infiltration test
•A mandatory duct leakage test
•Increased insulation and glazing efficiency
•Reduce wasting heated water: "short and skinny," and insulated pipes
Commercial Changes
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•
•
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•Choose between high performance lighting, HVAC equipment, or onsite renewable energy
•Requiring continuous air barriers for the building envelope
•A commissioning requirement for HVAC systems
•Increased insulation and glazing efficiency
•Mandated daylighting controls when window-to-wall ratio > 30%
•Mandating skylights/daylighting controls for certain buildings > 10,000 ft2 i
•Added efficiency requirements for cooling towers
•Increased minimum efficiency requirements for certain HVAC equipment
•Increased HVAC piping insulation provisions
Source: http://www.energycodes.gov/status/2012_Final.stm
Energy Efficiency:
Lowest Cost Source of “New Power”
Source: A Risky Proposition, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011
Reduce CO2 by 20% at Negative Cost
(i.e. while making money)
Source: Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?”, McKinsey and Company, December 2007
Net-zero CO2 Manufacturing Emissions
at Zero Additional Cost
 Base CO2 Emissions
•
5,600 t/yr
 Energy Efficiency
Reduces CO2 by 960 t/yr (17%)
• Saves $78,000 /yr with 48% ROI
•
 Purchasing renewable elec with
efficiency savings
Reduces CO2 by 4,800 t/yr (83%)
• RECs cost $0.015 /kWh
•
 Result
Net-zero CO2 emissions
• At zero additional cost
•
Energy Efficient Manufacturing Initiatives
 President Obama launches $500M Advanced
Manufacturing Partnership, including $120 million to
develop innovative manufacturing processes and
materials to enable companies to cut the costs of
manufacturing by using less energy.
 DOE launches Superior Energy Performance (SEP), a
plant-level energy efficiency certification program for
industrial facilities.
 DOE’s Industrial Assessment Centers provide no-cost
energy audits to mid-sized manufactures.
Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives
 American Institute of Architects Sustainability 2030
•
•
•
50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010
Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by 2030.
Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction
 American Society of Heating Refrigeration Air
Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE)
•
•
Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-2004
Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site energy use
 U.S. Department of Energy
•
All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025
Energy Efficient Transportation Initiatives
 Number of cars hits
1 billion
 10 automakers
launch plug-in
hybrids by 2012
 U.S. automakers
agree to double fuel
efficiency by 2025
to 54.5 mpg.
 EPA announces first
fuel efficiency
standards for trucks
and busses
Source: www.greenzer.com
State Renewable Electricity Standards
29 States and District of Columbia
Ohio: 12.5% of
electricity from
renewable energy
by 2025
Mandatory
Voluntary
Source: Securing the Transition to a Clean and Sustainable
Energy Economy, Deyette, J., Union Concerned Scientists, 2011
Wind Energy In the U.S.
 Renewable energy production
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surpasses nuclear in U.S.
Colorado generates 30% of elec
from wind and solar: and has
14,000 renewable energy jobs
Iowa generates 20% of elec
from wind
Wind energy provides more jobs
than coal
Clean energy jobs pay 13%
more than medium U.S. wages,
and offer more secure future
North Dakota is “Saudi Arabia”
of wind
Atlantic off-shore wind potential
is 70% of all U.S. elec:
Google investing in undersea
power cable for off-shore wind
turbines
Wind Energy In the U.S.
 U.S. now 46,919 MW and
growing at > 30% /yr.
 Wind responsible for 35% of all
new generating capacity over the
past 4 years, second only to
natural gas, and more than
nuclear and coal combined.
 Today, U.S. wind power capacity
represents more than 20% of the
world's installed wind power.
 Over 400 manufacturing facilities
across the U.S. make components
for wind turbines
Source: American Wind Energy Association
Wind Energy In Ohio
 Ohio kills proposed 960 MW
Meigs coal plant
 Builds 170 2-MW wind
turbines on Ohio-Indiana
border near Van Wert
 State approves 91 2-MW
turbines in north-central Ohio,
to be operating by December
2012 and create 70-95
construction jobs and 10
permanent jobs.
 Ninth wind farm certified.
Combined certified total 662
turbines to generate 1,251
megawatts of electricity.
Van Wert, OH
Wind Turbine Evolution:
Bigger and Taller (now 3 MW each)
Design Advancements Lead to
“Enormous Increase in Capacity Factors”
Levelized Cost of Wind Energy
Without PTC/MACRS
Levelized Cost of Wind Energy
With PTC/MACRS
Growing Amounts of Wind Curtailment
Britain Has More Offshore Wind Capacity
Than Rest Of World Combined
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World's largest offshore wind farm on the estuary of the Thames River
100 wind turbines, 300 megawatts, with 341 more turbines installed over the next four
years.
Each turbine as tall as a 40-story building, "farm" covers 22 square miles.
Britain now has more offshore wind capacity than the rest of the world combined.
Britain gets 3% of elec from renewables but aims to get 15% by 2020.
Solar Pricing
Recent Ohio News
West Chester Ikea plugs in solar panels
Business First
Date: Wednesday, January 25, 2012, 7:36am EST
A Cincinnati-area Ikea store will use a 128,000-square-foot array of solar panels installed on its
roof to light the store's lamps, the Cincinnati Business Courier reports.
The 344,000-square-foot West Chester store is Ikea's 14th in the U.S. to be outfitted with solar
panels, and 23 other locations are getting them as well, the newspaper reports. In West Chester,
the array has a 1,026-kilowatt system made with 4,186 individual panels, the newspaper reports.
The 1.3 million kilowatt hours of electricity that the panels are expected to generate each year is
the equivalent of reducing 1,014 tons of carbon dioxide, or taking 180 cars off the road, the
newspaper reports.
Ohio’s Clean Energy Economy
 Coal or Solar?
•
Coal Production: WY #1, OH #11 at 5.6% of WY prod
CO2 emissions: OH #4
Ohio exports >$1B per year on coal purchases
•
Solar Energy: AZ #1, OH #? At 71% of AZ solar
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 Jobs
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•
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Ohio #4 in clean energy jobs at 35,267 (2007)
Job growth 1998-2007: overall = -2.2%, clean energy =
7.3%
Jobs per $1M: fossil fuels = 5.3, clean energy = 16.7
Sources: www.pewcenteronthestates.org, www.nrdc.org
Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining
 Pulverize
mountaintop with
explosives and
push it into
neighboring
valley to expose
coal.
 In WV, 2000
miles of valleys
filled in.
 By end of decade
1.4 M acres.
 Cancer rates in
close towns 2x
more distant
towns.
University Initiatives:
UD’s Renewable and Clean Energy Program
 Energy Efficiency
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Energy Efficient Buildings
Energy Efficient Manufacturing
Design of Thermal Systems
Building Energy Informatics
 Renewable Energy
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Renewable Energy Systems
Solar Energy Engineering
Wind Energy Engineering
Geothermal Energy Systems
Biofuel Engineering
Advanced Photovoltaics
“Our Choice”
Thank You for Listening!
Extra Slides
Beyond Coal and Nuclear: Not just eliminating
something bad, but making room for something
good
U.S.: 500 outdated and inefficient coal plants will be phased-out
Canada: phase out dirty coal plants beginning in 2014
Pacific Northwest: coal free by 2025
Renewable Energy
Price of PV panels drops 70% between 2009-2012
Iowa gets 20% of electricity from wind
Colorado gets 30% of electricity from wind and solar
Clean Energy Economy
Wind energy has more jobs than in coal
Clean energy jobs pay 13% more than medium U.S. wages, and offer
more secure future
 Many jobs in manufacturing sector, hard hit by recession
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But We Must Move Even Faster…
OECD / Non-OECD Contributions
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006
Global Temperature Rise
 Current temp is 0.8 C
above 1750 temp
 Goal to limit temp rise to
2.0 C
 On track for temp rise of
6 C rise by end of
century
Time Lags Amplify Effects

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001
Manufacturing Efficiency??
 1 kg paper requires 100 kg of resources
 1 liter OJ requires 1,000 liters of water
 1 semiconductor chip generates 100,000
times its mass in waste
 US industry mines, burns, pumps,
disposes of 4 M lb of material per family
per year
Cost of Electricity Resources
8
Levelized Cost of Electricity (cents/kWh)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Energy
Efficiency
Pulverized Coal IGCC
Coal
w/o carbon
Nuclear
Nat. Gas
Combined
Cycle
Biomass
Wind
w/ $20/ton carbon
Source: Elliott, R.N., “America’s Energy Straightjacket”, ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, 2007.
U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr
Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost
Source: Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March
Remarkably
 Energy Efficiency
Increases business competitiveness
• Increase resource availability
• Increases environmental health
•
 Energy Efficiency is
THE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT
ECONOMY
Government Programs
 U.S. Department of Energy
•
Energy audits
 Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized
manufacturers
 Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump energy
audits for large manufactures
•
Energy system software and best practice case studies
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
•
E3 energy, waste and productivity audits
 Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by 20%
by 2020
•
DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient equipment
and retrofits.
International Standards
ISO Standards
9001 Quality
• 14001 Environment
• 50001 Energy
•
 Requires energy management personnel and
organizations within a company to determine
baseline energy use, determine energy
efficiency targets, identify and implement
energy efficiency opportunities, measure
effectiveness of energy efficiency
improvements.
Cost of Energy Efficiency
 “25% of total electricity usage can be
saved cost effectively, at an average of
3 cents or less per kWh.”
 “New generation sources cost 5 cents
or more per kWh, making efficiency the
lowest cost electricity resource”
Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
Cost of Energy Efficiency
 "Energy efficiency is … the cheapest
and most efficient way to reduce
emissions by the United States”
 “Policymakers worldwide should make
efficiency central to their efforts to
reduce the emission and harmful impact
of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases.”
Source: “For Now, at Least, Efficiency May Be the Best Tool for Reducing Carbon
Emissions, Experts Say”, American Association for Advancement of Science,
How it Started
 1976 SDGE wants to build new nuclear plant
to bridge gap between expected demand and
supply
 Art Rosenfeld tells Gov. Brown that energy
efficiency standards on household
refrigerators will save more energy than
nuclear plant will generate.
 California embarks on energy-efficiency path
California Today

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

Per capita energy use fourth lowest
Emits half CO2 per $ as rest of U.S.
Generates most renewable electricity
Most patents and most capital invested
in “cleantech” companies
Denmark Story


1973
 99% of energy imported
 80% of economy is agricultural
2009
 Low-carbon energy-efficiency green-job
economy
 Control world wind turbine market
 17% of energy from renewable energy
 Net energy exporter
 Meet Kyoto CO2 standards
 3.7% unemployment
 Trade and fiscal surplus
Source: Arne Petersen, Ambassador of Denmark,
United Kingdom Story
•
Implemented
 Regulatory framework
 Incentives and penalties
 7 fold increase in renewable energy
•
•
“Want to be first movers..”
“Market is colossal”
 Ultra low-carbon and electric vehicles
 Carbon capture and storage for all new plants by 2020.
“Can and will be no return to high-carbon low-cost energy
economy”
• “Utterly confident that we will achieve 80% reduction in CO2
emissions by 2050.”
• “Stabilize bills by increasing efficiency while prices rise”
•
Source: Joan Ruddock, Energy Minister, United Kingdom,
Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy,
10/2009
The US Story?
EEB Course Goals
Learn how to design buildings that are:
• Functional (traditional engineering course)
• Economic (better engineering course)
• Improve comfort / productivity (enlightened
engineering course)
•
E/3 (our course)
ASPO Prediction:
World Oil Will Peak in 2007
Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart”
Hansen, J., 2005, “A
slippery slope: How
much global warming
constitutes
“dangerous
anthropogenic
interference”?”,
Climatic Change, Vol.
68, No. 3., 2005,
Pages 269-279.
Transition to Sustainability Is
Central Challenge of 21st Century
21st century
Industrial revolution
Pre-industrial revolution
Today
Time
Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives
 American Institute of Architects (AIA) Sustainability 2030
•
•
•
50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010
Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by 2030.
Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction
 U.S. Green Building Council LEED Certification:
•
•
•
•
50% reduction in site energy use for base LEED
65% Silver
80% Gold
100% Platinum
 ASHRAE
•
•
Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-2004
Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site energy use
 U.S. Department of Energy
•
All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025
US Carbon Stabilization Scenario
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006