CHAPTER 29
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal policy basics
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In economics, fiscal policy refers to corrective
actions taken by Congress and the executive
branch.
Some fiscal policy corrections are automatic,
some are specifically initiated by government.
Does NOT involve the Federal Reserve – Fed
controls monetary policy and changes to the
money supply.
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Fiscal Policy: Spending / Tax revenue
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Sources of Tax Revenue in the
United States, 2015
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Government Spending in the
United States, 2011
Social
insurance
programs are
government
programs
intended to
protect
families
against
economic
hardship.
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The Government Budget and Total
Spending
C + G + I + (X-M) = GDP
Fiscal policy is the use of tax policy,
government transfers, or government purchases
of goods and services to shift the aggregate
demand curve.
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Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal
Policy
Expansionary Fiscal Policy Can Close a Recessionary Gap
Expansionary fiscal
policy increases
aggregate demand.
Recessionary gap
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Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal
Policy
Contractionary Fiscal Policy Can Eliminate an Inflationary Gap
Contractionary fiscal
policy decreases
aggregate demand.
Inflationary gap
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Lags in Fiscal Policy
In the case of fiscal policy, there is an important
reason for caution: there are significant lag
times in its use.
Realize the recessionary/inflationary gap by
collecting and analyzing economic data 
takes time
Government develops an action plan takes
time
Implementation of the action plan  takes
time
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Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier
policy has a multiplier effect on the
economy.
Fiscal
Expansionary
fiscal policy leads to an increase
in real GDP larger than the initial rise in
aggregate spending.
Conversely,
contractionary fiscal policy reduces
real GDP larger than the initial reduction in
aggregate spending.
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Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier
The
size of the shift of the aggregate demand curve
depends on the type of fiscal policy.
The
multiplier on changes in government purchases =
1/MPS.
The
multiplier on changes in taxes or transfers =
MPC/MPS This is because part of any initial change in
taxes or transfers is absorbed by savings.
Changes
in government purchases have a more powerful
effect on the economy than equal-sized changes in taxes
or transfers.
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How Taxes Affect the Multiplier
Rules governing taxes and some transfers act as
automatic stabilizers, and automatically reduce the
size of fluctuations in the business cycle.
Example: Unemployment compensation
Discretionary fiscal policy arises from deliberate
actions by Congress and the Executive branch rather
than from the business cycle.
Example: Tax stimulus rebates
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Differences in the Effect of Expansionary Fiscal
Policies
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The Budget Balance
How do surpluses and deficits fit into the analysis of fiscal
policy?
Are deficits ever a good thing and surpluses a bad thing?
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The Budget Balance as a Measure of Fiscal Policy:
How to calculate government surplus or deficit
Gov. surplus = tax revenue - gov. spending – transfer
payments
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The Budget Balance as a Measure of Fiscal Policy
Expansionary
fiscal policies make a budget
surplus smaller or a budget deficit bigger.
Conversely,
contractionary fiscal policies—
smaller government purchases of goods and
services, smaller government transfers, or higher
taxes—increase the budget balance for that year,
making a budget surplus bigger or a budget
deficit smaller.
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The Business Cycle and the Cyclically Adjusted
Budget Balance
Some
of the fluctuations in the budget balance are due
to fluctuations the business cycle.
Governments
estimate the cyclically adjusted
budget balance, an estimate of the budget balance if
the economy were at potential output (LRAS).
Translation:
Government budget assumes approx. 3%
growth in RGDP.
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The U.S. Federal Budget Deficit and the Business
Cycle
The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP tends
to rise during recessions (indicated by shaded
areas) and fall during expansions.
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The U.S. Federal Budget Deficit and the
Unemployment Rate
There is a close relationship between the budget balance and the
business cycle: A recession moves the budget balance toward
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deficit, but an expansion moves it toward surplus.
The Actual Budget Deficit Versus the Cyclically
Adjusted Budget Deficit
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Should the Budget Be Balanced?
Most
economists don’t believe the government should
be forced to run a balanced budget every year because
this would undermine the role of taxes and transfers as
automatic stabilizers.
Example:
during a serious recession, government would
have to raise taxes to maintain a balanced budget.
Yet
continued, excessive deficits make many people
believe some deficit limits are necessary.
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Long-Run Implications of Fiscal Policy
U.S.
government budget accounting is calculated on the
basis of fiscal years. (Oct. 1 – Sept. 30) (Named for
the calendar year in which they end)
Persistent
budget deficits have long-run consequences
because they lead to an increase in public debt.
Deficit
Debt
= yearly imbalance
= total imbalance
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Problems Posed by Rising Government Debt
This can be a problem for two reasons:
Public debt may crowd out investment spending,
which reduces long-run economic growth.
And in extreme cases, rising debt may lead to
government default, resulting in economic and
financial turmoil.
Ex. Argentina in 2001 – defaults on $81 billion
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Deficits and Debt in Practice
A widely used measure of fiscal health is the debt–GDP
ratio. This number can remain stable or fall even in the
face of moderate budget deficits if GDP rises over time.
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Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP
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U.S. Federal Deficit since 1940
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Implicit Liabilities
Implicit liabilities are spending promises made
by governments that are effectively a debt, but
they are not included in the usual debt statistics.
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The Implicit Liabilities of the U.S. Government
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The End of Chapter 29
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