Sect 1: Managerial finance. Managerial finance is concerned with the duties of the financial manager in the business firm. Have a working knowledge of the legal forms of business organisations. Know the difference between Par value and Market value/Directors value. Know the difference between Authorised and Issued share capital and between Preference and Ordinary shares. Goals of Managerial Finance: Maximise profit (objective of the firm). Maximise shareholder wealth (goal of the firm). The role of ethics; Social responsibility. An agency relationship is the relationship between shareholders and management in a firm. 1 The Financial System Lenders Borrowers Money Household Sector Financial Intermediaries Indirect Corporate Sector Government Sector Money Household Sector Primary Securities Corporate Sector Securities Money Foreign Sector Government Sector Foreign Sector Dissintermediation Primary Securities Primary Market: Where new securities are made available by organisations in both the public and private sectors and are taken up by the investor. Secondary Market: This is where existing securities are traded. An active secondary is essential to create liquidity and tradability of investments. Money Market: Where short-term debt instruments or marketable securities with maturities of one year or less are traded. Capital Market: Where long-term securities such as bonds and shares are traded. 2 Sect 2: Capital budgeting & cash flows. Net present value (NPV). The difference between the market value of a project and its cost. How much value is created from undertaking an investment? The first step is to estimate the expected future cash flows. The second step is to estimate the required return for projects of this risk level. The third step is to find the present value of the cash flows and subtract the initial investment. This is to determine whether the project is viable. Computing NPV for the Project You are looking at a new project and you have estimated the following cash flows: Year 0: CF = -165,000 (original investment) Year 1: CF = 63,120 Year 2: CF = 70,800 Year 3: CF = 91,080 Your required return for assets of this risk is 12%. Using the formulas: NPV = CF3 CF1 CF2 Par.val 2 (1 K e ) (1 K e ) (1 k e ) 3 NPV = 63,120/(1.12) + 70,800/(1.12)2 + 91,080/(1.12)3 – 165,000 = 12,627.42 3 Alternatively: Year Cash Flow PV 1 63,120.00 56,363.39 2 70,800.00 56,453.16 3 91,080.00 64,845.76 =NPV @ 12% 177,662.91 Original Investment -165,000.00 NPV 12,662.91 Decision rule. If the NPV is positive, accept the project. 4 Internal rates of return (IRR). This is the most important alternative to NPV. IRR is the return that makes the NPV = 0. IRR is the discount rate that equates the PV of cash inflows with the initial investment associated with the project. Decision Rule: Accept the project if the IRR is greater than the required return. Example: The management of Tiger Engineering are considering the following investment project. The following data is available: Cost of plant and equipment 60 000 Salvage value nil Expected profit/loss Yr 1 (15 000) Yr 2 10 000 Yr 3 35 000 Tito Engineering uses the straight-line method of depreciation for all fixed assets. The estimated cost of capital is 10% p.a. Before calculations are done, the Cash Flows need to be calculated. Cash flows. Year Profit/loss Depreciation Cash flow 1 (15 000) 20 000 5 000 2 10 000 20 000 30 000 3 35 000 20 000 55 000 5 ARR ARR = = AvePr ofits x100 AveInvestment 10000 x 100 30000 = 33.33% NPV Year Cash flow Discount factor PV 10% 0 (60 000) 1 (60 000) 1 5 000 0.9091 4 546 2 30 000 0.8264 24 792 3 55 000 0.7513 41 321 NPV 10 659 IRR Year Cash flow Disc fact PV 17% Disc fact PV 18% 0 (60 000) 1 (60 000) 1 (60 000) 1 5 000 0.8547 4 273 0.8475 4 237 2 30 000 0.7305 21 915 0.7182 21 546 3 55 000 0.6244 34 342 0.6086 33 473 NPV 530 6 (744) The IRR that we are seeking is a discount rate for which the NPV is closest to 0 Rands. At 17% the NPV is closer to 0 Rands. By interpolation, 17 530 1 1274 = 17.42% 7 IRR and NPV example. Suppose an investment will cost $90,000 initially and will generate the following cash flows: Year 1: 132,000 Year 2: 100,000 Year 3: -150,000 The required return is 15%. Should we accept or reject the project? Hurdle rate is 15%. Year 0 -$90,000 Year 1 $132,000 Year 2 $100,000 Year 3 -$150,000 IRR 10.11% NPV fx 15% Less initial Reject $91,769.54 -$90,000.00 investment NPV at 15% $1,769.54 Accept You now have the dilemma of IRR indicating that you should reject the project, but NPV indicating that you should accept it. What would you suggest? If IRR says to reject, but NPV says to accept, go with NPV. Decision rule. The NPV is positive at a required return of 15%, so you should Accept. 8 If you use the financial calculator, you would get an IRR of 10.11%, which would tell you to Reject. You need to recognize that here there are non-conventional cash flows that “corrupt” the IRR calculation and look at the NPV profile. 9 CAPM Suppose the risk-free rate is 4%, the market risk premium is 8.6% and a particular stock has a beta of 1.3. Based on CAPM, what is the expected return on this stock? Rf = 4% Mkt risk premium = 8.6% Therefore: RM = 8.6% + 4% = 12.6% = 1.3 ER = 4% + 1.3(12.6% 4%) = 15.18% Example with Mutually Exclusive Projects Period Project A Project B -500 -400 1 325 325 2 325 200 IRR 19.43% 22.17% NPV 64.05 60.74 0 The required return for both projects is 10%. Which project should you accept and why? (Accept Project A because of NPV) 10 Old exam question. The following information relates to two projects, Project A and Project B from which one must be chosen by Construction International. After-tax cash flows Year Project A Project B 1 0 36 000 2 18 500 36 000 3 36 200 36 000 4. 123 000 36 000 Both projects require an initial investment of R117 700 As the project manager of Construction International you are required to: 3.1 Calculate the Net Present Value (NPV) for each project using a discount rate of 12%. Which project would you use choose? Why? 3.2 Calculate the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for both projects. Which project should be chosen? Why? (20) 11 3.1 PROJECT A Year Cash Inflow Discount Factor Present Value 1 0 0.8929 0 2 18 500 0.7972 14 748 3 36 200 0.7118 25 767 4 123 000 0.6355 78 611 Total Present Value 119 126 Investment 117 700 NPV (positive) 1 426 PROJECT B Net Inflow R 36 000 Discount factor x 3.0373 Total Present Value 109 342 Investment 117 700 NPV (negative) 8 358 DECISION: Project A should be chosen because the NPV is positive. Reject Project B because it has a negative NPV. 12 3.2 PROJECT A Choosing the discount factor: Step 1 Since we know the NPV is positive and above zero, although by a small margin, pick a higher discount rate e.g. 13% (Trial and error is used to obtain the higher rate). Step 2 Year Cash Inflow Discount Discount Present Present Factor Factor Value Value 12% 13% 12% 13% 0 0 1 0 0.8929 0.8850 2 R 18 500 0.7972 0.7831 R14 748 R14 487 3 R 36 200 0.7118 0.6931 R25 767 R25 090 4 R123 000 0.6355 0.6133 R78 166 R75 435 Total PV R118 681 R115 012 Investment (R117 700) (R117 700) NPV R 981 Step 3 Interpolation: The IRR is between 12% and 13% IRR = 12 + ____981__ 981+ 2 688 = 12 + 981_ 3669 = 12.27% 13 (R2 688) PROJECT B Choosing the discount factor: Step 1 Since we know the NPV is negative, pick a lower discount rate e.g. 10% (Trial and error is used to obtain the lower rate). Step 2 Year Cash Inflow Discount Discount Discount Present Present Present p.a. 1-4 36 000 Factor Factor 10% 9% 3.1699 3.2397 Factor Value Value Value 8% 10% 3.3121 Investment 9% 8% 114 116 116629 119235 117 700 117700 117700 NPV (R3 584) (R1071)R1535 Step 3 Interpolation: The IRR is between 8% and 9% IRR = 8 + __1535___ 1071+1535 = 8+ 1535 2606 = 8.59% Decision: Project A must be chosen because it has a higher IRR (20) 14 Sect 3: Business risk. Types of risk: Business risk arises from the nature of the environment in which a company operates. Operating risk arises from the nature of the operating activities of the firm. Financial risk arises from the extent to which a firm relies on debt to finance its operations. Total risk is a combination of business, operating and financial risks. The effect of standard deviation on returns of different asset portfolios. Consider the normal distributions for the returns of two different assets A and B. Both have been constructed using 100 data readings of past returns. Asset A Asset B Arithmetic mean (exp return) 15% 12% Standard deviation (risk) 5% 3% As asset A has a higher chance of earning below the expected return of 15%, asset A carries more risk. Asset A has a greater risk because it has a higher std deviation. As asset A carries a higher risk than asset B, investors would demand a higher expected return in order to purchase that share. 15 Risks associated with different portfolios. Systematic risk. Unsystematic risk. There are two types of risk, namely Market and Specific risk. Market risk is that portion of a securities price movement that can be attributed to movement to the market as a whole. This portion of risk is known as systematic risk and cannot be diversified away by including it in the market portfolio. This risk is known as beta. The 2nd element of risk is that portion of price movement unique to the specific asset and is defined as non-systematic or diversifiable risk and is denoted as alpha. Nonsystematic risk is further divided into industry risk or company specific risk. ER CML A’s return B A Rf A’s systematic risk, “S” A’s unsystematic risk, “U” 16 A’s total risk Portfolio illustration: Suppose we mix a portfolio of 40% in Investment A, 40% in Investment B, which may earn only 7% in a good market but booms to 14% in a recession, and we put the other 20% in government investment G earning 4%. Portfolio Expected Return for Portfolio ‘P’: E(RP) = [.40 x E(RA)] + [.40 x E(RB)] + [.20 x E(RG)] Where E(RA) =8.8%, E(RB) =9.8%, and E(RG) = 4% (the risk-free rate) E(RP) = (.40 x .088) + (.40 x .08) + (.20 x .04) E(RP) = .0824 or 8.24% Note: The percentage weights are based on the total dollars invested in each security. If we invested $100,000 as follows: $40,000 in A, $40,000 in B, and $20,000 in G, then we would have the 40%-40%-20% mix above. The variance of this portfolio is 0.00000434062 and the standard deviation is .0020736 or about +- 2/10 of 1%. In other words, diversifying eliminated almost all of the diversification risk or unexpected return. 17 The Efficient Frontier. ER C B D A R Efficient frontier and CML. ER CML Markowitz efficient frontier M Rf CAL A A R 18 CAPM as a measure of systematic risk. The CAPM is defined as: Re = Rf + β(Rm – Rf) Example. If the Rf = 4% and the E(RM)=11.5% Suppose we select an asset ‘i’ with a bi =0.7. The expected return on this asset is therefore (using CAPM) E(Ri)= Rf + [E(RM) - Rf] βi = .04 + [.115 - .04] x .7 = .04 + (.075 x .7) = .04 + .0525 = .0925 or 9.25% Because the Beta is low risk (less than market), the expected return is less than the market rate. Does CAPM work? Know the assumptions behind CAPM. Know what other difficulties occur. While there are imperfections in the CAPM assumptions, it is certainly worth considering as a practical method with a logical background for financial managers to use to determine the cost of capital. 19 Sect 4: Long-term sources of finance. Sources of long-term financing. Equity financing. o Ordinary shares. Non-equity financing. o Preference shares. New issues. Rights issues. Share splits and bonus issues. Retained earnings. Debt financing. o Debentures. o Secured or unsecured debentures. o Convertibles. o Loans. o Warrants. o Bank overdrafts. o Leases (Finance, sale and leaseback, operating). o Hire purchase. o Franchising. o Grants. o Venture capital. Lease-or-buy decisions. 20 Example (lease or buy). Beta Transport is considering the purchase of a tanker for R400 000 cash. Alternatively, the tanker could be leased on a 5-yr contract for R110 000 p.a. If the tanker is owned, the service and maintenance charges will be R16 000 p.a, whereas the lease charge includes maintenance and servicing. The salvage value of the tanker in 5 years times is expected to be nil. The company uses the straight-line method of depreciation. The company’s tax rate is 30% and the pre-tax cost of debt is 10%. Required: Calculate the cost of owning; use the discounted cash flow method. Calculate the cost of leasing; use the discounted cash flow method. Advise on the option to be adopted. Justify your answer. Owning. DETAIL Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 (11 200) (11 200) (11 200) (11 200) (11 200) 24 000 24 000 24000 24 000 24 000 Net Cash Flow 12 800 12 800 12 800 12 800 12 800 PV Factor @ 7% 0.9346 0.8734 0.8163 0.7629 0.7130 11 963 11 180 10 449 9 765 9 126 NPV R(347 517) Purchase price Y0 (400000) Service charge 16000 x 0.7 Dep. Tax shield 80000 x 0.3 PV Cash Flow (400000) Leasing. DETAIL Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 (110 000) (110 000) (110 000) (110 000) (110 000) Tax shield 0.3 33 000 33 000 33 000 33 000 33 000 Net Cash Flow (77 000) (77 000) (77 000) (77 000) (77 000) 0.9436 0.8734 0.8163 0.7629 0.7130 (71 964) (67 252) (62 855) (58 743) (54 901) NPV R(315 715) Lease payments PV Factor @ 7% PV Cash Flow Recommendation: it is advantageous to lease rather than to buy. 21 Sect 5: Cost of capital. The equation for the CAPM model is: ERe = Rf + β(Rm – Rf). Gordon growth Model (DDM) Zero growth. Constant growth. Two-stage or Supernormal growth. The equation for the supernormal or two-stage DDM is: Po= D0(1+g)1+ D0(1+g)2+ D0(1+g)3+ ……… + Pn (1+k)1 (1+k)2 (1+k)3 (1+k)n Pn represents the terminal val of the stock at the end of the initial high growth stage. 22 Weighted Average Cost of Capital. Market values. Ordinary equity: E = Po x no of shares = R5.00 x 1 000 000 = R5 000 000 Preference capital: P = Po x no of pref shares = R10.00 x 200 000 = R2 000 000 Debt: Current market val of debt is equal to the present val of interest payments plus the present val of the capital repayment. The future cash flows must therefore be discounted at the current required rate of return given in the question as a yield to maturity. Example: Suppose a company has R2 mil, 8% debentures due in 5 yrs with a current yield-to-maturity of 10% The interest payment (coupon rate) made by the company is equal to R160 000 (8% x R2 000 000). As the same amount will be paid every year, this indicates that we will be dealing with an annuity. Thus the appropriate table needs to be utilised. 23 The current market val of debt can be calculated as follows: D = PVAint + PVcap repayment D = R160 000 x PVAIF5YRS,10% + R2 000 000 x PVIF5yrs,10% Using the PVAIF and PVIF tables to obtain the PVA and PV factors: D = (R160 000 x 3.7908) + (R2 000 000 x 0.6209) = R606 528 + R1 241 800 = R1 848 325 24 Cost of equity. This relates to the return investors require as compensation for the expected inflation, time value of money, and the risk to which their investment is exposed. The two generally recognised methods for determining the required return on equity are: DDM (DVM) D1 = Do x (1 + g) Re = D1/Po + g or Re = Do (1 + g)/Po +g CAPM Re = Rf + β(Rm – Rf). 25 Cost of preference shares. Preference shares have some debt characteristics. Specifically the div payable is usually a fixed amount. Rp = D/Po 26 Cost of debt. Interest rates represent the price paid for the use of borrowed capital. Note that the cost of debt from the point of view of the company is the current market interest rate – the rate at which the company could borrow today. This current interest rate, called the yield to maturity (YTM) of the company’s debt, can be determined by observing the current market price at which the firm’s existing debentures are trading. Yield to maturity is defined as the interest rate that will make the present value of a debentures remaining cash flows (if held to maturity) equal to its current market prices. (Ikova, 2001: 25) Example: Coupon rate: 8% Term : 5yrs Current YTM: 10% Co tax rate: 30% RD = YTM (1 –Tc) = 10 (1 – 0.3) = 7% 27 Weighted Average Cost of Capital. A firm’s overall cost of capital must reflect the required return on the firm’s assets as a whole. If a firm uses both equity and debt financing, the cost of capital must include the cost of each, weighted to proportion of each in the firm’s capital structure. WACC equation: WACC = (E/V) x RE + (D/V) x RD x (1-Tc) Example. ABC Corp has 1.4 million common shares valued at R20 per share = R28 million. Debt has face value of R5 million and trades at 93% of face (R4.65 million) in the market. Total market value of both equity + debt thus = R32.65 million. Equity % = .8576 and Debt % = (1-.8576) = .1424 Risk free rate is 4%, risk premium=7% and ABC’s β=.74 Return on equity per SML: RE = 4% + (7% x .74)=9.18%; Tax rate is 40%; Current yield on market debt is 11% WACC = (E/V) x RE + (D/V) x RD x (1-Tc) = .8576 x .0918 + (.1424 x .11 x .60) = .088126 or 8.81% 28 Sect 6: Gearing and shareholders’ wealth. Gearing (Financial leverage) refers to the extent to which a firm relies on debt. Leverage: using given resources in such a way that the potential positive or negative outcome is magnified. Debt capital includes all long-term borrowing incurred by the firm. Equity capital consists of the long-term funds provided by the firm’s owners, the shareholders. 29 Example: effect of long-term loan on EPS. In the example below, the geared firm has R5 million of 10% debentures and R5 million of equity. The low-geared firm is ungeared and has no debt and has equity of R10 million. Geared Firm (R) Ungeared Firm (R) Operating profit 2 000 000 2 000 000 Interest (500 000) (Nil) Profit before tax 1 500 000 2 000 000 Tax @ 30% (450 000) (600 000) Profit after tax 1 050 000 1 400 000 1050000 5000000 1400000 10000000 21c 14c 600 000 600 000 (500 000) (Nil) Profit before tax 100 000 600 000 Tax @ 30% (30 000) (180 000) 70 000 420 000 70000 5000000 420000 10000000 1.4c 4.2c EPS Operating profits Interest Profit after tax EPS Shareholders in the geared company experience greater volatility in EPS. 30 Sect 10: Valuation, mergers and acquisitions. Example. Increase/decrease in a company’s share price post-merger. Micro Ltd makes a cash offer of R1.50 a share for Macro Industries. Macro has 2 500 000 shares selling at R1 a share and has an EPS of R1.40. Micro has 7 500 000 shares with a market value of R22.5 million and an EPS of R1.85. The total synergistic benefit of the merger amounts to R2.5 million. Calculate: 1. The premium paid to Macro and the benefits to both companies. 2. The post-merger market value of Micro. 3. The post-merger increase/decrease of Micro’s share. Answer: 1. # of shares in Macro = 2 500 000 Amount Micro has to pay = 2 500 000 x R1.50 = R3 750 000 = R3 750 000 – R2 500 000 = R1 250 000 Premium paid Macro will gain R1.25m out of the R2.5m gain from the merger and Micro shareholders will benefit from the balance of R1.25 m. 31 2. Post-merger market value of Micro. Pre-merger market value = R22.5m Macro market value = R 2.5m Synergy benefits = R 2.5m R27.5m Less cash paid to Macro = R 3.75m Therefore post-merger market value = R23.75m 3. Micro post-merger share price = R23.75m / 7.5m = 316.67c Therefore, the merger has increase Micro’s share price by 16.67c. 32