AP® Statistics Syllabus Course Design AP Statistics is a course instructed through discovery and technology to develop a broad understanding and connection among four major fundamental concepts: experimental design, exploration and presentation of data, anticipated patterns, and drawing conclusions through the process of inferential statistics. It is important to note that the course will provide a careful balance between the use of technology and written expression. By the beginning of the month of May, students should be prepared to take and pass the AP Statistics exam. Primary Textbook Peck, Roxy, Chris Olsen, and Jay Devore. Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis, first edition. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole, 2001 Additional Textbook Resources Mason, Robert D., Douglas A. Lind, and William G. Marchal. Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics, eleventh edition. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 2002 Yates, Daniel S., David S. Moore, and Daren S. Starnes. The Practice of Statistics, second edition, New York, NY: W. H. Freeman and Company, 2002 McKenzie, John, Robert L. Schaefer, and Elizabeth Farber. The Student Edition of Minitab for Windows, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1995 Technology All students are required to own and use a Texas Instruments TI-83, TI-83 plus or a TI-84 graphing calculator. An instructor’s TI-83 plus overhead projection unit is used in the classroom to supplement calculator instruction. All students are required to use Minitab for Windows statistical software. This software package is owned by our school and can be used in any of our four computer laboratories. For three weeks following the AP Statistics exam, students are required to produce a major statistical project using both Minitab and Microsoft Word. The internet is used to great extent in this course as a data resource. Students are asked to find relevant data for statistical applications on an ongoing basis. Course Outline The course is organized through the chapters in the primary textbook. Each Friday and the entire three weeks following the AP exam, the course meets in the computer lab to work on a statistical project using Minitab statistical software. Quarter 1 (Nine Weeks) Course Content Student Assessment Course Content and Assessment The Role of Statistics Three Reasons to Study Statistics Statistics and Data Analysis The Nature and Role of Variability Quiz 1 (two free response questions on chapter readings) Test 1 (25 multiple choice, two free response questions) Required Topics Covered Homework 1-1(Determine if your college of choice accepts AP Stats credit. Show proper internet documentation) Data Analysis Process and Collecting Data Sensibly Levels of Measurement Types of Data The Data Analysis Process Collecting Data Sensibly: Observation and Experimentation Sampling/Types of Samples Bias Simple Comparative Experiments Introduction to Minitab Quiz 2 (three free response questions on chapter 2 readings.) Quiz 3 (two free response questions on blood pressure sampling and selection bias) Partner Quiz (class observational study simulation through sample surveys) Test 2 (25 multiple choice, one bias free response question , two experimental design free response questions ) Homework 1-2 (Peck pp. 14-15 #1-7) Homework 1-3 (Peck pp. 26-27 #10 – 20 and pp. 35-35 #24 &26) Graphical Methods for Describing Data Displaying Categorical Data Displaying Numerical Data Interpreting Results of Statistical Analyses Minitab Graphing Explorations Quiz 4 (class simulation survey with boxplot and dot-plot) Test 3 (25 multiple choice, four free response questions with written descriptions) Homework 1-4 (Peck pp. 54-56 #2-10) Homework 1-5 (Peck pp. 62-64 #12-20 and pp. 88-89 #40 and 51) Numerical Methods for Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency Measures of Variability Grouped Measures of Central Tendency and Variability Boxplots Interpreting Center and Variability: Planning a Study: Methods of data collection (census, sample survey, experiment, and observational study) Planning and conducting surveys (characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted survey, random selection, sources of bias, types of sampling) Planning and conducting experiments (characteristics, treatment, blocking, direct control, replication randomization, placebos, blinding, matched-pair design, flowcharts) Generalizing results from observational studies, experiments and surveys. Exploring Data: Interpreting graphical displays of distributions of univariate data (constructing dotplots, stem-and-leaf plots, histograms, ogives, bar charts and pie charts) Investigating center and spread of data, outliers, distribution shapes and unusual features Comparing distributions of univariate data (comparing center and spread, gaps, clusters outliers and shapes between two groups) Exploring categorical data: frequency tables (marginal and joint frequencies for two-way tables, conditional relative frequencies and association) Exploring Data: Summarizing distributions of univariate data (measures of central tendency, measures of variability, measures of position including quartiles, deciles percentiles and z-scores, graphing and interpreting boxplots, changing units of summary measure) Chebyshev’s Rule, the Empirical Rule, and z-scores Minitab Descriptive Statistics Explorations Comparing distributions of univariate data (constructing and interpreting parallel boxplots, comparing measures of central tendency and variability) Quiz 5 (two free response questions on chapter 4 readings) Quiz 6 (one free response question on measures of central tendency) Quiz 7 (two free response questions on grouped data and measures of central tendency) Test 4 (25 multiple choice, four free response questions focusing on the written interpretation of results) Homework 1-6 (Peck pp. 79-83 #20-34) Homework 1-7 (Peck pp. 110-112 #2-18 and pp. 120-121 #20-26) Homework 1-8 (Peck pp. 125-126 #30-34 and pp.133-134 #36-44 even) Computer Quiz 1 (box-plots) Quarter 2 (Nine weeks) Course Content Summarizing Bivariate Data Scatter Plots Pearson’s Sample Correlation Coefficient Fitting a Line to Bivariate Data (Regression Analysis and Coefficient of Determination) Assessing the Fit of a Line Nonlinear Relationships and Transformations Minitab Bivariate Data Explorations Quiz 8 (two free response questions on chapter 5 readings) Quiz 9 (one free response question on Pearson’s sample correlation coefficient with written interpretation of the coefficient of determination) Quiz 10 (one free response question on non-linear regression) Test 5 (20 multiple choice, three free response questions) Homework 2-1 (Peck pp. 150-151 #4 & 6 and pp. 163-165 #10-20) Homework 2-2 (Peck pp. 174-176 #26-34 and pp. 188-190 #38, 42 and 44. Detailed explanations are required for most problems) Homework 2-3 (Peck pp. 206-207 #52-58 even) Required Topics Covered Exploring Data: Exploring bivariate data (constructing and analyzing patterns in scatterplots, Pearson’ sample correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, linearity, least squares regression line, non-linear transformations including quadratic, cubic, quartic, logarithmic, exponential and power) Probability Chance Experiments and Events The Definition of Probability Basic Properties of Probability Permutations and Combinations Conditional Probability Independence Probability Rules and Bayes’ Theorem Classroom Probability Simulations Quiz 11 (two free response question on chapter 6 readings) Quiz 12 (one free response question on conditional probability) Quiz 13 (one free response question on Bayes’ Theorem) Simulation Quiz (classroom simulation with dice of various sides, rolling pairs and relating to geometric distributions) Test 6 (25 multiple choice, five free response questions) Homework 2-4 (Peck p. 233 #3, 5-10) Homework 2-5 (Peck pp. 248-250 #14-20; p. 259 #32 &34; pp. 268-269 #36-44) Random Variables and Probability Distributions Random Variables Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables Probability Distributions for Continuous Random Variables The Mean and Standard Deviation of a Random Variable Binomial, Poisson and Geometric Distributions Normal Distributions Checking for Normality and Normalizing Transformations Classroom Probability Simulations Minitab Probability Distribution Explorations Anticipating Patterns: Probability as relative frequency(Law of Large Numbers, addition rule, multiplication rule, conditional probability and independence Anticipating Patterns: Probability as a relative frequency (discrete random variables and their probability distributions, simulation of binomial and geometric distributions, mean and standard deviation of a random variable and linear transformation of a random variable) Combing independent random variables (notion of independence versus dependence, mean and standard deviation for sums and differences of independent random variables) The normal distribution (properties, tables, models for measurement) Quiz 13 (two free response question on random variables) Test 7 (20 multiple choice, five free response questions) Homework 2-6 (Peck pp. 314-315 #8-18) Homework 2-7 (Peck pp. 333-335 #28-38; pp. 345-346 #46-54) Sampling Variability and Sampling Distributions Statistics and Sampling Variability Anticipating Patterns: Sampling distributions (sample proportion, sample mean, Central Limit Theorem, difference between two The Sampling Distribution of a Sample Mean The Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion Minitab Sampling Distribution Explorations Central Limit Theorem “Penny Project” independent sample proportions, difference between two independent sample means, simulation of sampling distributions) Penny Project (Each student receives 100 pennies. He records the age, plots the age on a class dot-plot, finds the mean age and sample standard deviation of n=100 pennies and then again for n=5 randomly selected pennies. The global/classroom mean and standard deviation are calculated. The student then must summarize his findings and comment on the findings and the relationship with the Central Limit Theorem.) Test 8 (25 multiple choice, three free response questions) Homework 2-8 (Peck pp. 420-421 #15-25) Quarter 3 (Nine Weeks) Course Content Estimation Using a Single Sample Point Estimates Large Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion Confidence Interval for a Population Mean Minitab Confidence Interval Explorations Required Topics Covered Statistical Inference: Confidence Intervals (meaning of a confidence interval, large sample confidence interval for a proportion, large sample confidence interval for a mean) Quiz 14 (one free response C.I.) Test 9 (25 multiple choice, three free response questions. Close attention is paid to written interpretation.) Homework 3-1 (Peck pp. 453-454 #14-24. Complete 5-step Confidence Intervals for each problem.) Hypothesis Testing Using a Single Sample Hypothesis and Test Procedures Errors in Hypothesis Testing Large-Sample Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean Power and Probability of a Type II Error Minitab Hypothesis Testing Explorations Quiz 15 (two free response questions on type I & II errors) Quiz 16 (one free response question on 1- Statistical Inference: Tests of Significance (logic of testing, null and alternate hypotheses, p-values, and two sided tests, concepts of type I and type II errors, concept of power, large sample test for a proportion, large sample test for a mean) Special case of normally distributed data (t-distribution, single sample t-procedures) sample t hypothesis test for μ) Test 10 (five free response questions) Homework 3-2 (Peck p. 486 #34,35,39 &45; p. 481 #1-5; p.486 #10, 11) Homework 3-3 (Peck pp.501-502 #26-32. Complete 9-step hypothesis testing for each problem.) Homework 3-4 (Peck pp. 514-515 #46-53. Complete 9-step hypothesis testing for each problem.) Comparing Two Populations or Treatments Inferences Concerning the Difference between Two Population or Treatment Means Using Independent Samples Inferences Concerning the Difference between Two Population or Treatment Means Using Paired Samples Large-Sample Inferences Concerning a Difference between Two Population or Treatment Proportions Quiz 17 (one free response question on 2 sample t test for μ.) Quiz 18 (one free response question on the paired t test.) Test 11 (five free response questions with an emphasis on written interpretation of conditions and conclusions of 2-sample tests.) Homework 3-5 (Peck pp.549-553 #2-7, 11, 16, 18 & 21. Complete 9-step hypothesis tests for each problem.) Homework 3-6 (Peck pp. 564-566 #34, 37, 38 &40. Complete 5-step confidence intervals for each problem.) The Analysis of Categorical Data and Goodnessof Fit Tests Chi-squared Tests for Univariate Categorical Data Tests for Homogeneity and Independence in a Two-way Table Classroom Chi-squared simulation (Skittles and Goldfish) Quiz 19 (one free response question on a goodness-of-fit test) Skittles Project (Goodness-of-fit simulation with a bag of Skittles.) Test 12 (four free response questions with emphasis on not only x2 test, but also the conditions in which each can be used.) Homework 3-8 (Peck pp. 622 #1-2 & 15- Statistical Inference: Confidence Intervals (large sample confidence interval for a difference between two proportions) Tests of significance (large sample confidence interval for a difference between two means, both paired and unpaired, large sample test for a difference between two proportions, large sample test for a difference between two means, both unpaired and paired) Special case of normally distributed data (two sample t-procedures) Statistical Inference: Test of Significance (chi-squared test for goodness-of-fit, homogeneity of proportions and independence in one and two-way tables) 19) Homework 3-9 (Data collection for spring project) Minitab Contingency Table Explorations Quarter 4 (Eight Weeks) Course Content Simple Linear Regression and Correlation: Inferential Methods The Simple Linear Regression Model Inferences Concerning the Slope of the Population Regression Line Inferences Based on the Estimated Regression Line Inferences about the Population Correlation Coefficient Quiz 20 (one free response question on linear regression review) Quiz 21 (one free response question on 1sample t hypothesis test for β) Test 13 (25 multiple choice and three free response questions) Homework 4-1 (Peck pp.658-659 #12-23) Homework 4-2 (Peck pp. 671-672 #27-31) Practice AP Statistics Tests/Course Review Practice “old” free response questions. Students swap papers and grade according to the College Board rubric Practice AP Test in “real time”. Given in parts over 5 school days. Free responses are swapped and graded by students based on the College Board rubric. Free Response Quiz (2 of the 5 for a grade) Practice AP Test Homework 4-3 (List all hypothesis with matching assumptions and test statistics formula.) Homework 4-4 (Create and solve two statistical problems assigned by SRS to be used in class study packet.) Advanced Placement Exam Statistical Project Observational Study or Experiment in any appropriate topic of interest. Students must clearly show: experimental or observational design process; raw data collection that includes at least 30 observations of at least 3 numerical and 2 categorical measures; an introduction that Required Topics Covered Statistical Inference: Special case of normally distributed data (inference for the slope of least-squares regression line) includes a theme and hypothesis/hypotheses; measures of central tendency with written descriptions; graphical representations using all data collected (at least five different graphs) with written interpretations; linear regression (if applicable); numerical and/or categorical hypothesis testing that includes a confidence interval; a conclusion that draws all aspects of the statistical process, including but not limited to design, analysis and conclusions. Assessment Tests are given at the completion of each chapter/unit. Quizzes are usually given weekly. Homework is assigned and collected each Monday as a weekly packet. Computer assignments are graded as quizzes with the exception of the final project, which is a test grade. Most tests are designed to closely follow the AP exam format: 50% multiple-choice, 50% free response and always valued at 100 points. Quizzes are smaller in scope than tests: one or two free response questions or a classroom simulation ranging from 10 to 25 points. Homework is assigned from each section of the textbook with approximately 20 to 30 problems assigned per week. Homework is assessed using a 3 point rubric. On a daily basis, students are encouraged to effectively communicate relationships among statistical methods, results and conclusions in a written format. Often students are asked “how” or “why” when explaining the nature of data. A strong emphasis is placed on the appropriate use of statistical vocabulary when validating hypotheses. Moreover, reinforcement is placed on neat and organized written and graphical work. They are required to draw connections of their statistical knowledge in situational context (often in-class simulations) from design to numerical and graphical interpretation to analysis and conclusion using complete, grammatically correct sentences. The purpose of the spring statistics project is to draw these connections together from a unique data set determined and collected by each student. The project requires students to validate statistical relationships through written expression from experimental design to conclusion. In class, we often use statistical simulations that provide students with “hands on” experiences. Simulations range from simple in-class surveys to marble and dice games to a 100 penny project to sampling Goldfish crackers. With all simulations, students are asked to discover the true nature between the data used and the conclusions that can be drawn from the design and summary of data. Quarter and Semester grades are calculated using the following parameters: Quarter Grades: Tests Quizzes 25% Written Assignments 40% 15% Semester Grades: Quarter 1 or 3 Quarter 2 or 4 Semester Exam 20% 40% 40%