CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Working Group 5: The Role of Armed Forces and Security Forces Coordinator: Rut Diamint Civil-Military Relations in Asia: The Ascendance of Democratic Civilian Control Muthiah Alagappa The relationship of the soldier to the state in Asia has undergone substantial change over the past five decades but there have been significant continuities as well. At the founding moment, civilian supremacy characterized civil military relations in nearly every country except Thailand. Beginning in 1958 and through the 1960s and 1970s there was a surge in military and military backed regimes. Since the mid-1980s, however, the trend in Asia has been toward a reduction in the political power, influence, and role of the military, and a corresponding increase in civilian supremacy. There is the likelihood of reversals in a few countries as in Pakistan in 1999, but a repeat of the 1960s and 1970s appears rather unlikely. For reasons explored in this paper, the declining political influence of the military appears quite firmly rooted and set to continue into the foreseeable future. However, advance in effective civilian control over the military in post-authoritarian states is likely to be incremental and gradual subject to protracted struggle and negotiation, and at times setbacks. There could also be limited military role expansion, especially at the local level, in countries that have experienced civilian control for a considerable period. Further, the content of state-soldier relations is likely to vary across countries, even when they have similar political systems. Civil-military relations in Asia in the foreseeable future will continue to be complex and dynamic, and will be characterized by multiple patterns although democratic civilian control is likely tobecome the dominant mode. Taking a 1/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa regional perspective, this paper identifies and explains some of the key changes and continuities in Asian civil-military relations. It also identifies the obstacles to and the measure that should be taken to deepen democratic civilian control. Coercion in Governance The initial surge and subsequent decline in the political influence of the military in Asia is best explained by the changing significance of coercion in governance. In Asia, as elsewhere, post-colonial and post-revolutionary governments faced enormous challenges in state and nation building as well as in developing legitimate political systems. Although experiences vary, in many countries power and authority were not concentrated in the state, state institutions were unable to dominate the entire country, minorities resisted integration into national communities, political systems were challenged by groups espousing rival organizing ideologies, legitimacy of governments were contested by competing elite, and in several cases the new states were confronted with severe international threats to their very existence. Internal and international security was prime concerns of a large number of Asian countries. State coercion played a dominant role in most if not all these processes in a large number of countries leading to role expansion and a dramatic increase in the organizational and political power and influence of the military. While Asian countries still continue to face major challenges and in some cases the challenges have become more acute, over the last five decades or so several have made substantial progress in the internal and international consolidation of nation and state, and in the development of widely accepted systems and institutions for the acquisition and exercise of state power. In these countries 2/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa the resort to coercion, especially the private, partisan, and repressive use of force in governance has declined, and so has the political power and influence of the military. Concurrently, a large number of Asian countries, particularly those in East and Southeast Asia, also experienced high rates of economic growth for well over two decades. The highly successful export led-growth strategies of these countries integrated their national economies into the global capitalist economy, instituting new rules and procedures for their management with spillover social and political effects. Sustained economic development in the capitalist mode made for a more complex economy that demanded sophisticated management which was well beyond that can be provided by the military. It also set in train the development of new domestic forces-an independent private sector, growth of middle and working classes, strong and vibrant civil societies among themmaking for much more complex states and societies with the latter demanding greater welfare, accountability, and participation in governance. Such development also strengthened the other state institutions as well as the political and civil societies, titling the distribution of power against the military and altering the norms and rules of governance. Simultaneously, and especially since the mid-to late-l980s, the international context altered decidedly in favor of democracy, human rights, and market economy. International organizations and key external actors condemned military coups and ostracized military governments. Not only have these developments altered the normative structure and distribution of power in favor of civilian institutions with a corresponding decline in the political influence of the military in several countries, they have also generated close domestic and international scrutiny of military institutions and their activities. The interplay of coercion, political legitimacy, and economic development in the context of a changing in 3/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa the international system, we argue, explains long-term change or lack thereof in Asian civil-military relations. Except for Burma, civil-military relations in all other Asian countries are in the midst of change-more dramatic in some than in others-and further change is in prospect especially in the socialist states and in the states undergoing democratic transition. Although the "ultimate" patterns are unlikely to become clear for quite some time to come, the trend in Asia is toward a reduction in the political salience and role of the military with a corresponding increase in civilian control. However, the rise of civilian control does not equal one pattern of civil-military relations. Asia has in the past and will continue in the foreseeable future to be characterized by multiple patterns. The subjective type civilmilitary relations in Malaysia, Singapore, and Sri Lanka (at the national level) grounded in ethnic considerations are durable and likely to continue. Similarly, the Leninist pattern of civil-military relations in the Asian socialist states is likely to continue in the short to medium term. In the longer term, it appears untenable and likely to change. With the increasing irrelevance of the communist ideology and greater integration of the Chinese economy into the global capitalist economy, the party state regime in the PRC begins to resemble in important ways that of the pre-1987 KMT regime in Taiwan. However, there are significant differences as well and it is not foreordained that the PRC would follow in the path of Taiwan. At the same time, the vanguard role of the CCP and its monopolization of power will also be increasingly difficult to sustain. Rise of Democratic Civilian Control Although Asia will continue to be characterized by multiple patterns, democratic 4/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa civilian control is becoming the dominant mode of civil-military interaction. This has been the pattern in post-war Japan and in India and is likely to continue. Although civil-military relations in Malaysia, Singapore, and Sri Lanka are of the subjective type, they do exhibit certain features of democratic civilian control. Democratic civilian control is being consolidated in Taiwan, South Korea, and, to a lesser degree, in the Philippines and Thailand as well. Bangladesh and especially Indonesia are still in an early stage of their democratic transition. Military exit from politics is almost total in Taiwan and South Korea. In the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh and Indonesia there has been a formal exit, but the militaries still wield informal political influence. In these countries, the militaries have attempted to retain as much autonomy and control as possible over its institutional matters, off-budget revenues, and security policy making. However, civilian authorities have also made major advances in restricting military jurisdiction in these areas. Right now it is a mixed picture. The experiences of the last several decades suggests that enhancement of civilian control entails strengthening the legitimacy, capacity, and roles of civilian institutions, sustained economic development, and reducing the salience of coercion in governance. These hinge on forging of political agreement on the basis for the nation-state and the system for political domination, making economic growth and development a key priority, as well as developing political and socioeconomic policies and processes to address political and social problems. This does not imply that coercion is irrelevant for governance. Only that its role should be limited and indirect, and be viewed as the ultimate sanction, not the first recourse. In this connection, it is important to observe that although the role of coercion in the 5/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa international consolidation of the nation-state-safeguarding its international security-is salient, the significance and role of coercion in domestic governance in enforcing the writ of the government and in maintaining internal order and security--because of its more direct connection to political legitimacy and capacity-is the more crucial determinant of the relationship between the state and the soldier. The prominence of coercion in securing loyalty and obedience from citizens of the state is a direct reflection of the weakness of the political legitimacy of the nation-state and the government. There is no such corresponding relationship between the international deployment of state coercion and political legitimacy. The impact could be positive or negative depending on the circumstances. It is therefore imperative to limit the role of coercion and the military in internal governance, though this may not always be possible. When necessary, deployment of coercion and the military in the internal security role should be limited to legitimate state purposes and carefully controlled to prevent abuse of state power and to ensure oversight by civilian authority that itself is legitimate and accountable to the citizens of the state. Civil-Military Relations in post-Authoritarian States Although democratically elected governments have replaced military and autocratic ones in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Indonesia, and there have been alternations in power in the first five countries, democratic civilian control of the military has advanced only in an incremental fashionand is still far from complete. It is most advanced in South Korea and Taiwan, less so in the Philippines and Thailand, and least advanced in Bangladesh and Indonesia. All countries still face a number of challenges. Those confronting Bangladesh and Indonesia are the most extensive and acute. 6/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa In explaining the progress (or the lack of it) in enhancing democratic civilian control in these countries, our argument runs as follows. A decisive shift in the distribution of power between democratic forces and antidemocratic forces in the society at large which includes but is not limited to the military is the crucial variable in explaining the onset of democratic transition and initiation of democratic civilian control. In the interregnum following the collapse of the military regime and when the military is n the defensive, the new civilian leadership has considerable freedom in shaping national policy including civilmilitary reform. Such a window of opportunity is usually short. Further success in and enhancement of democratic civilian control hinges on the continuation and strengthening of the distribution of power in favor of democratic forces and their translation into strong democratic institutions. As the democratic framework and institutions become strong and deep rooted, and as state capacity develops to address the challenges confronting the country through non-coercive means, the salience of coercion in governance and the power of the military further declines, tilting the balance even more durably against the coercive institutions of the state. Sustained functioning of the military within a democratic framework enhances the legitimacy of the political system, as well as inculcate and internalize the norm of democratic civilian control in the military and the society at large. In all the six countries considered in this section, the advantage in brute power lay with military or military backed governments. However, with the exception of the government in Taiwan, all others lost their moral authority to govern. The application of coercion to sustain themselves in office further undermined rather than enhance their political authority. The shift in the balance of moral power combined with the inaction or withdrawal of the support of coercive power led to the ouster of the military and autocratic 7/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa governments. In nearly every case, the military or the military faction that controlled the political helm in its own right or backed an authoritarian ruler emerged from the crisis as a thoroughly discredited institution and on the defensive. The balance of power was clearly in favor of the forces advocating regime change. The latter usually comprised a wide array of organizations, groups, and movements: opposition political parties from different parts of the political spectrum, students, churches and religious groups, organized labor, business associations, the press, human rights organizations, other NGOs, and, in some cases like the Philippines, reformist elements within the military. Often these groups were united only in their opposition to the incumbent military or military backed government. Nevertheless, the unity of these groups, however opportunistic and temporary, was critical in bringing about the change in government and regime. The continuation of a favorable balance of power is crucial for strengthening and deepening democracy and developing strong institutions for democratic governance. However, coalitions forged to oppose an autocratic ruler often break down soon after the ouster of the incumbent government. In their quest for political power, opposition parties splinter and the competing interests of other groups dominate their political interaction. The ensuing change in the balance of power allows conservative forces including the military to regroup and limit damage. The pace of democratic reform including civilian control of the military slows. In South Korea for example, the split between Kim Youngsam and Kim Dae-jung in 1987 contributed to the victory of Roh Tae-woo, a member of the Hana faction. For him reducing the power of that faction and reforming civil-military relations were not high priority. These had to wait till the presidency of Kim Young-sam, the first genuine civilian president in the post-1987 period. Similarly, the collapse of the 8/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa anti-Marcos coalition in the Philippines exposed Aquino to challenges from the right and left, increasing her reliance on the core of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) under the leadership of Ramos. Reliance on the institution that had to be reformed tempered the content and pace of civil-military reform. The appointment of a large number of retired military officers including those from the RAM to key government positions under the succeeding Ramos administration further tempered civil-military reform in the Philippines. Coalition breakdowns occurred in Bangladesh and Indonesia as well. Apart from increasing the leverage of the military and slowing civil-military reform, polarization and maneuvering among political parties could lead to political penetration of the military and involving it in politics for personal and party gain as has been the case in Bangladesh. In Indonesia, Abdurrahman Wahid has actively solicited the support of the military to declare an emergency with a view to dissolving the parliament which has initiated impeachment proceedings. The military has thus far refused to support him on the ground that it is a national institution, not his personal force, and that the order goes against the constitution. In South Korea Kim Young-sam' s empowerment of the intelligence agencies in 1995 was interpreted as trying to improve the prospects for his party in the 1997 elections. A strong understanding among political parties not to involve the military in politics and a deep commitment on the part of civil society to act as a watchdog in keeping the military out of politics are crucial for the continuation of civil-military reform. The power and commitment of civil societies is particularly important in countries like Bangladesh where the political parties are deeply polarized and democratic institutions are still weak. It is crucial for reform oriented leaders to cultivate and mobilize like-minded groups to keep the balance of power in favor of reform. 9/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa However, this alone is not enough. To be durable, the favorable balance of power should be deployed to create and empower strong democratic institutions which are crucial for the next stage of civil-military reform. As the medium through which power is translated into policy, institutions can strengthen democratic civilian control in several ways. By compelling political, bureaucratic, and military actors to interact in accordance with specified rules and procedures in the development of policy, institutions condition all actors to operate under a democratic framework and reduce (though not eliminate) the salience of power in their interaction. The cross cutting alliances and cleavages made possible by the interaction through institutions also contribute to the development of understanding and respect for different perspectives leading to moderation and compromise. These developments enhance the legitimacy of the democratic system. Accustomed to operating in a democratic framework, the military in the long run internalizes the norm of civilian control. Further, institutional design-in terms of issues, jurisdiction, and actors-can affect policy outcome, which is the substance of civilmilitary relations. By being able to influence the substance of policy as well as the power and interests of competing actors, institutions can also affect the civil-military balance in favor of civilian authority. However, strong democratic institutional development has not been a key feature of the countries under consideration-at least not thus far. Institutional development is perhaps most advanced in Taiwan where increasingly the military has to interact with political and civilian bureaucratic officials in the making of security policy and in matters pertaining to the management of the military as an institution. Even in Taiwan, there are several institutional gaps and weaknesses that have to be rectified. Institutions like the Legislative 10/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa Yuan and the Control Yuan with responsibility for oversight of the military budget and arms procurement, for example, have been inhibited in discharging their functions effectively due to a lack of expertise and institutional capacity as well as legal provisions and procedures that limit access to information in a timely fashion. Democratic institutions with oversight responsibilities in the areas of security policy making and management of the military as an institution are also in various stages of construction in South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. However, because of limited resources and competing priorities as well as military evasion and intransigence, they have not been high priority. Poor institutional development explains in part the tentative nature of civilian supremacy in the Philippines and Thailand, and even more so in Bangladesh and Indonesia. Institutions for making and implementing policy on a wide range of issues have yet to be constructed in the latter two countries. In terms of priority, the focus of civil-military reform has been on removing the military from the structure of political domination. Considerable progress has been made in this area in nearly all countries although the durability of change in some is open to question. Progress in other areas (redefining military role and reorienting the military toward the external defense function, terminating off-budget revenues from military owned business enterprises and illegal activities, and civilian oversight of security policy as well as the management of the military as a state institution) is more varied and has been influenced by considerations of resource availability, the presence or absence of security threats, and the corporate interests of the military. Resource availability is a key consideration in reorienting the military away from internal security to its external defense function. In Taiwan and South Korea, this factor has 11/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa not been a major obstacle. Further, because of the grave external threats confronting these two states, external defense has always been a key focus of their militaries. Termination of military role in internal security and intelligence in Taiwan and South Korea has been a function of political will and availability of civilian expertise. However, resource constraint has been a key factor in Thailand, Philippine, and especially in Indonesia. The military modernization programs in Thailand and the Philippines, which are an integral part of reorienting the militaries to the external defense function, have been delayed due to lack of resources-especially in the Philippines, which has since attempted to provide, in part, for its external security needs by reinvigorating its security relationship with the United States. Reorienting the military to the external defense function has made the least progress in Indonesia because of the continuing grave internal security threats, a weak police force, absence of clear external threats, and lack of resources. Lack of adequate government funding for the military has also made it difficult to terminate the off-budget revenues of the militaries in Thailand and Indonesia. It is estimated that government funding accounts for less than 30 percent of the military budget needs in Indonesia. Lack of adequate funding has also contributed to the erosion if not breakdown of the TNI command and control system making central control of regional and local forces especially in the outlying regions difficult with negative consequences for implementing military reform and holding regional military commanders accountable. Civilian oversight of security policy and in the management of the military are two areas in which progress has been more limited even in countries like Taiwan and South Korea. Limited progress in these areas may be explained by the presence of acute security threats, the shortage of qualified civilian personnel, and military resistance to civilian 12/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa encroachment in areas that it considers its turf. For fear of provoking the military, civilian political leaders have treaded gingerly in these two areas. However, substantive and durable democratic civilian control requires the civilian authority to have ultimate jurisdiction in these areas as well, although it may delegate specific powers to the military establishment. Continued military jurisdiction in these areas provides the military with power not only to limit civilian authority but also to overturn it when its interests are negatively affected as has been the case in Pakistan. To summarize, there are two sides to deepening of democratic civilian control of the military. One entails the continuation and strengthening of the pro-democracy forces, and deploying such power to construct strong democratic institutions including those necessary to exercise oversight of the military. Concurrently it is essential to develop the state's noncoercive capacity to address the many internal and international challenges confronting these countries so that reliance on state coercion can be reduced. The second side entails permanently removing the military from the structures of political domination, ensuring civilian control of security policy making, civilian oversight of military institutional matters, divesting the military's commercial enterprises, and forbidding military involvement in illegal activities. Recommendations As observed earlier, multiple patterns characterize civil-military relations in Asia. Although democratic civilian control is becoming the dominant mode, the state of democratic development including democratic civilian control of the military varies widely across countries. Thus the specific recommendations for deepening democratic civilian 13/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa control would vary by country. Below are some general recommendations that can be tailored to suit the circumstances of each country. Drawing on our earlier discussion they are grouped in three categories. Development and Consolidation of Democracy 1. Develop strong civilian consensus on democracy such that the balance of power is clearly in favor of democratic forces. This is crucial for the nascent democratic regime to survive threats from the military. 2. Translate the consensus on democracy into widely accepted institutions for the acquisition and exercise of state power. This must proceed to the level where the acquisition of political power by means other than free elections is viewed as illegitimate. 3. Foster the development of strong political parties and a strong civil society. The first is crucial to ensure competitive politics and to allow choice while the second is crucial to hold the government accountable. 4. Exclude the military from all structures of political domination. Limit secondment of military personnel to political and administrative positions. 5. Foster sustained economic development. Limit and eventually exclude the military from economic development including rural development and from commercial ventures. Strengthen Civilian Oversight of the Military 6. Institute ultimate civilian authority over key national-security decision- making processes including mission definition, procurement, appointments and promotions. 7. Build civilian expertise and capacity in the executive, legislature, bureaucracy, and civil society to ensure effective oversight of security affairs and the 14/15 CONFERENCE ON DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND CONSOLIDATION Muthiah Alagappa military as an institution. 8. Develop alternative sources of intelligence and develop civilian capacity to assess and decide on threat assessments. Develop a Professional Military 9. Limit the military to the external defense function. Provide adequate resources to reorient the mission of the military. 10. Make internal security the responsibility of the police force under a separate ministry. Develop a regular police force and limit if not avoid altogether the development of paramilitary troops. If the military has to be deployed in the internal security role, it should be with a clear mission and defined parameters under civilian authority. Such a role should be for limited duration only. 11. Regularize and make transparent the institutions and procedures for command and control, recruitment, appointments and promotions, and procurement. 12. Prevent the development of factions and personal allegiances within the military through a strong chain of command system, meritocracy, and regular transfer of officers. 13. Institute rigorous education and training requirements including a strong emphasis on civilian supremacy over the military. 14. Regularize and make transparent the military’s budget and terminate the military’s off-budget revenues. 15/15