Approved by
Khabarovsky Krai
Government Decree № 1-пр
dated January 13, 2009
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
KHABAROVSKY KRAI GOVERNMENT
KHABAROVSKY KRAI
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
UP TO THE YEAR 2025
City of Khabarovsk
2008
2
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION................................................................................................... 1
1. General Provisions .................................................................................................................... 3
2. General Description of Khabarovsky Krai ............................................................................... 3
2.1. Geographic Location and Administrative Structure .......................................................... 4
2.2. Natural and Climatic Conditions, Tourism and Recreation Potential................................ 4
2.3. Natural Resource Potential ................................................................................................ 5
2.4. Economic Potential ............................................................................................................ 8
2.5. Demographic and Migration Potential ............................................................................. 12
2.6. Provision for Transparent Functioning of Khabarovsky Krai Executive Authorities ..... 14
3. Capabilities and Challenges of Khabarovsky Krai Development ........................................... 14
SWOT-analysis of Khabarovsky Krai’s Social and Economic Development Factors ........... 16
4. Strategy’s Goals and Objectives ............................................................................................. 17
5. Social and Economic Policy as a Tool to Attain Strategic Goals ........................................... 18
5.1. Social Policy Priorities ..................................................................................................... 19
5.2. Basic Priorities of Economic Policy ................................................................................ 24
5.3. Environmental and Spatial Priorities ............................................................................... 28
5.4. Foreign Economic Priorities ............................................................................................ 29
6. Scenarios for Khabarovsky Krai Development ...................................................................... 33
6.1. Inertial Scenario ............................................................................................................... 35
6.1.1. Prerequisites for Inertial Scentario Implementation ................................................. 35
6.1.2. Risks Inherent in Inertial Scenario for Khabarovsky Krai........................................ 36
6.2. Innovative Scenario ......................................................................................................... 39
6.2.1. General Prerequisites for Innovative Scenario of Khabarovsky Krai Development 39
6.2.2. Risks Associated with Innovative Scenario .............................................................. 41
6.2.3. Regional Prerequisites to Innovative scenario .......................................................... 42
6.2.4. Economic Rationale of Innovative Scenario ............................................................. 44
6.2.5. Innovation-Based Development of Key Sectors of Economy .................................. 47
6.2.6. Spacial Structure of Development ............................................................................ 59
7. Strategy’s Macroeconomic Indicators .................................................................................... 63
8. Strategy Implementation Mechanism ..................................................................................... 70
9. Strategy’s Monitoring ............................................................................................................. 72
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1. General Provisions
Khabarovsky Krai Social and Economic Development Strategy up to the year
2025 (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy) is regarded as a conceptual scheme
focusing on Khabarovsky Krai key competitive advantages and their
implementation mechanism.
While the Strategy specifies general guidelines for future development of social
and economic systems in the Khabarovsky Krai territory for the Krai government,
business, and potential investors, it serves as a foundation for development of
plans, programs, projects and forecasts. The Strategy embodies a system of goals
and describes mechanisms for attaining these goals.
Since social and economic development is a task-oriented process, which entails
selection of optimal means for available resources usage per each period of time
under existing objective circumstances, for the purpose of attaining goals set by
the territorial system itself or its external environment, then strategic management
of regional development is a perennial process. Therefore, techniques for
monitoring attainment of Strategy’s basic parameters and monitoring dynamics of
Strategy’s implementation environment are also defined therein.
2. General Description of Khabarovsky Krai
Khabarovsky Krai was founded in 1938. It is one of the largest constituent entities
of the Russian Federation. Its total area makes 787,600 sq. km., 4.6% of the
territory of Russia (4th place in the Russian Federation) and 12.7% of the territory
of the Far-Eastern Federal District (hereinafter referred to as the FEFD) (2nd place
in the FEFD).
As of January 1, 2008, Khabarovsky Krai population makes 1,403,700 (0.99% of
Russian Federation population, 21.6% of the FEFD population). Khabarovsky
Krai ranks second in the population of the FEFD and ranks 34th in the Russian
Federation.
Khabarovsky Krai is an administrative, industrial, scientific, educational and
cultural center of the Russian Far East, it is one of the constituent entities of the
FEFD.
Khabarovsk-Moscow distance by railroad makes 8,533 km, by air – 6,075 km.
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2.1. Geographic Location and Administrative Structure
Khabarovsky Krai lies in a temperate zone of the northern hemisphere, it stretches
1,780 km from south to north and ranges from 125 to 750 km from west to east.
Khabarovsky Krai borders on China and neighbors Primorsky Krai, Amurskaya
and Magadanskaya Oblasts, Jewish Autonomous Oblast, Republic of Sakha
(Yakutia) within the Russian Federation. Khabarovsky Krai is surrounded by the
Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan on the east. It is separated by the Tatar Strait
and the Strait of Nevelskoy from Sakhalin Island. Its coastline makes 2,500 km.
Khabarovsky Krai administrative and territorial system is composed of 236
municipalities, including 2 city districts, 17 municipal districts, 29 towns, and 188
villages.
The Krai’s largest cities are the City of Khabarovsk, its administrative capital,
(577,300 people, ranking 2nd in the FEFD) and Komsomolsk-on-Amur (272,400
people, ranking 3rd in the FEFD).
2.2. Natural and Climatic Conditions, Tourism and Recreation Potential
A large part of the Krai’s territory is covered by mountains, which are part of the
Sikhote-Alin, Dzhugdzhur, and Badzhal ranges. The highest summit reaches
2,933 m. There are over 1,500 rivers of various sizes in Khabarovsky Krai,
including Amur, one of the largest rivers in Russia, there are also many large and
small lakes in the territory.
About 100 species of fish inhabit rivers and lakes of Khabarovsky Krai.
Khabarovsky Krai fauna is composed of 70 species of mammals and over 360
species of birds. Woods cover over 51.2 million hectares of the Krai’s territory.
Khabarovsky Krai climate is continental with well-marked monsoon features. The
winter season is long-term, severe, arid and sunny. Average temperature in
January varies from -22ºС in the south to -40ºС in the north, while coastal
regions’ temperature varies from -18 to -24ºС. The summer season is warm and
humid, average temperature in July varies from +22ºС in the south to +14ºС in the
north. Frost-free season makes 130 to 150 days in the south and 90 to 130 days in
the central and northern regions. The total annual precipitation varies from 400
mm in the north to 800 mm in the lowlands.
The Krai’s tourism and recreation potential is determined by its geographical
location, regional economic development, high concentration and diversity of
natural resources, and rich cultural and historical heritage.
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The Krai’s territory is unique in its abundance of unusual land forms, rivers,
lakes, combination of rare species of plants and animals and their communities,
and virgin natural landscape. About 250 natural marvels remain intact in the
Khabarovsky Krai territory. The Amur river is one of the Krai’s main points of
interest. Many natural, cultural, historical and tourist places of interest are
concentrated in the river valley.
In terms of Khabarovsky Krai tourism development, over 360 monuments of
cultural heritage are available for ethnographic examination. Khabarovsky Krai is
one of the most multiethnic regions of Russia. Indigenous peoples of the North,
which include Nanai, Udege, Ulchi, Orochi, Evenk, and Nivkh, form a special
ethnographical area. One of the most interesting attractons of ethnographic
tourism is Sikachi-Alyan Petroglyphs, a unique archeological monument of rock
carvings by prehistoric people dating back to approximately 12th millennium B.C.
2.3. Natural Resource Potential
Sources of Raw Materials and Minerals
Raw material and mineral resource potential is one of the Krai’s main competitive
advantages.
Khabarovsky Krai accounts for 50% platinum, 8% gold, 20% tin, 50% copper,
and 7.5% coal of the FEFD raw material and mineral reserves.
There are considerable reserves of non-ferrous and rare metals and building
materials in Khabarovsky Krai. Deposits of agrochemical raw materials, colored
natural stones, mineral subsurface waters, therapeutic muds and mineral paints
were also discovered.
Areas promising for tungsten, platinum-group minerals, oil and gas have also been
discovered in Khabarovsky Krai.
At the same time, poor geological study of Khabarovsky Krai is worth
mentioning. Geological survey on a scale of 1:50000 that is most indicative of ore
deposits and shows of ores was conducted on no more than 35% of the Krai’s
territory, which is typical of the Far-Eastern region as a whole.
Aquatic Biological Resources
Main fish resources of Khabarovsky Krai are represented by fresh and salt water
hydrocoles.
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Khabarovsky Krai fresh water resources are primarily associated with the Amur
River. Over thirty species of fish are sold commercially with twenty species
thereof being of appreciated value. These include Pacific migratory salmons
(chum, humpback, Arctic, and cherry), sturgeons (great Siberian and Amur),
several species of large ordinary fish (Amur pike, common carp, skygazer, catfish, silver carp, taimen, Manchurian trout, whitefish, yellowcheek, and common
bream). Khabarovsky Krai’s internal water reservoirs yield 5,000-9,000 tons fish
annually.
Coastal waters of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Tatar Strait are rich in salmonids,
Pacific spawning herring, capelin, sole, kelp, and crabs. An annual coastal catch
of aquatic bioresources makes 34,000-40,000 ton.
Water Resources
Available water supply of the Krai’s residents is one of the highest in Russia—
about 330,000 cubic meters per capita. There are over 206,000 rivers with total
length of over 550,000 kilometers and total water yield of almost 400 cubic
kilometers per year in Khabrovsk Krai. The Krai’s main waterway, the Amur
River, is one of largest rivers in Russia ranking forth in water content after
Yenisei, Lena and Ob rivers. The River’s estuary is accessible by seagoing crafts
which can go upstream to the City Khabarovsk in high waters.
Water-power potential of Khabarovsky Krai rivers makes 23 billion kilowatthours per year.
There are over 58,000 large and small lakes with the total water level area of
about 4,000 square km in Khabarovsky Krai. The largest lakes are situated in the
Amur basin, they include Bolon, Orel, and Chukchagir. A 373 sq.km-part of
Bureya water-storage reservoir is also situated in Khabarovsky Krai. An area of
two water-storage reservoirs makes over 1 million cubic meters each.
Expected useful groundwater resources of Khabarovsky Krai make 48 million
cubic meters per day. About 40 groundwater sites have been proven in
Khabarovsky Krai.
The Krai’s mineral waters are mostly carbonic acid and nitric. There are three well
known reservoirs, which include Annensky thermal springs, Tumnin and Mukhen.
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Land Resources
As of January 1, 2008, Khabarovsky Krai’s available land area has made
78,763,300 hectares with 375,800 hectares (0.5% of the Krai’s territory) thereof
being agricultural lands, 420,200 hectares (0.5% of the Krai’s territory) –
settlement lands, 73,707,400 hectares (93.6% of the Krai’s territory) – woodlands;
reserve land area makes 1,384,100 hectares (1.8%), water resources land makes
961,400 hectares (1.2%), area of especially protected environment makes
1,646,200 hectares (2.1%), industrial lands and other special-purpose lands make
268,200 hectares (0.3%).
The total area of agricultural land in all land categories makes 665,900 hectares
(0.9% of Khabarovsky Krai’s total land available).
As of January 1, 2008, individuals and legal entities own 62,800 hectares (less
than 0.1% of the Krai’s available land). Share of state- and municipally- owned
lands in Khabarovsky Krai makes 99.9% (78,700,500 hectares).
Forest Resources
Khabarovsky Krai is Russia’s largest timber supply area. The Krai accounts for
6.6% and 25.3% of the growing stock in the Russian Federation and the FEFD,
respectively.
Principal forest-forming timber species occupy 44.7 million hectares, including
37.5 million hectares (84.1%) of coniferous species, 1.5 million hectares (3.3%) of
hard-wooded broadleaf species, and 5.7 million hectares (12.6%) of soft-wooded
broadleaf species.
Standing volume of principal forest-forming timber species makes 4.85 billion
cubic meters, where coniferous species account for 4.27 billion cubic meters
(88.2%), hard-wooded broadleaf – for 0.18 billion cubic meters (3.6%), and softwooded broadleaf – for 0.40 billion cubic meters (8.2%).
The volume of exploitable mature and overmature crop makes 1.42 billion cubic
meters, including 1.25 billion cubic meters (88.5%) of coniferous species, 81.0
million cubic meters (5.6%) of hard-wooded broadleaf species, and 83.3 million
cubic meters (5.9%) of soft-wooded broadleaf species.
The 2007’ allowable cut (annual timber sales) made 23.6 million cubic meters,
including 15.4 million cubic meters of accessible cut volume. Actual final cut
made 7.9 million cubic meters in 2007.
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Nature Reserves
There are six state-run wildlife reserves of the total area of 2,107,000 hectares,
including 1,699,200 hectares of a reserved area and 429,370 hectares of a national
park, as well as five federally-funded nature reserves of the total area of 734,200
hectares in Khabarovsky Krai.
The majority of Khabarovsky Krai’ nature reserve area falls on 20 state-run
preserves (2,444,900 hectares, or 3.1% of the Krai’s territory). The total area of
six ichthyological (fishing) preserves makes 334,800 hectares.
To maintain Siberian tiger’s spatial and genetic ties and population integrity, four
ecological passages were arranged in Khabarovsky Krai with the total area thereof
making 156,600 hectares.
There are over 60 natural marvels of region-wide significance in Khabarovsky Krai.
These include unique and irreplaceable natural systems of ecological, scientific,
cultural and aesthetic value, and objects of natural and artificial origin. Among the
widely known natural wonders of regional importance are rockslide lake Amut in
Solnechny municipal district, the Arboretum of the Forestry Research Institute,
Shuranov Nursery in the downtown of Khabarovsk, and Shaman rock outcrop in
Komsomolsk-on-Amur municipal district.
The Red Book of Khabarovsky Krai contains 310 living species of flora and 159
living species of fauna.
2.4. Economic Potential
Khabarovsky Krai is one of most economically developed territories of the
Russian Far East. Khabarovsky Krai ranks third in the gross regional product in
the FEFD with the GRP making 0.9% of the Russian Federation gross national
product in 2006. Khabarovsky Krai ranks Russia’s twentieth in the gross regional
product per capita and FEFD’s second in the volume of domesticallymanufactured goods shipped.
Khabarovsky Krai accounts for 1.15% of the Russian Federation investments and
ranks 3rd in the investment volume in the Far-Eastern Federal District. As per
Expert RA Rating Agency data, Khabarovsky Krai is rated among ‘Growing Point’
regions indicating its capacity for social and economic growth and potential for
improvement of investment ranking.
As per October 1, 2007 data of the National Institute for System Research into
Business Problems, Khabarovsky Krai is one of Russia’s ten best regions with the
highest increase in the number of registered small-scale enterprises per 100,000
residents.
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As per the comprehensive analysis of regional competitive capacity made in 2008
by the Institute of Regional Policy, an autonomous non-profit organization, with
assistance of the Russian Federation Ministry of Regional Policy, Khabarovsky
Krai ranked 19th out of 82 Russian Federation constituent entities, and was
recognized as one of the leaders in competitiveness.
As per the data of 2007’ research conducted by the Institute for Information
Society Development with the assistance of the Russian Federation Ministry of
Information Technologies and Communications, Khabarovsky Krai ranked 10th
among the Russian Federation regions in its readiness for information society.
As per the Forbes June 2008 rating, City of Khabarovsk, capital of Khabarovsky
Krai and FEFD, ranked 8th out of 85 best business-friendly Russian cities with
population of over 200,000 people.
Khabarovsky Krai’s economy is based on the fairly diversified industrial
production capacities, which includes a number of defense enterprises. Volume of
the
goods
(works,
services)
shipped
in
Khabarovsky
Krai’s
extractive/manufacturing enterprises and enterprises, generating and distributing
electric power, gas, and water, makes up over one fifth of the FEFD volume.
Khabarovsky Krai accounts for the largest share of engineering, timber, oil
products, and steel output and is the only rolled iron producer in the FEFD.
In 2007, Khabarovsky Krai ranked 3rd in the Russian Federation in precious
metals mining and timber removal.
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Khabarovsky Krai transport system is presented by one of the key transport
centers of the Far-Eastern Russia. Transit functions of Khabarovsky Krai, which
is located in the center of the Russian Far East, are of regional, national, and
international importance. Two mainline railroads, Trans-Siberian and BaikalAmur, which run through Khabarovsky Krai, provide access to Russia’s main
Pacific ports. Vanino-Kholmsk ferry crossing connects continental railroads with
Sakhalin Island.
City of Khabarovsk international airport, the largest airport in the Russian Far
East, receives all aircraft types. Scheduled airlines connect the City of
Khabarovsk with over 40 cities in the Russian Federation and the CIS. Air service
has been established with PRC (cities of Beijing, Harbin, Guangzhou, and
Dalian), Japan (Niigata and Aomori), Republic of Korea (Seoul), Israel (TelAviv), and Thailand (Bangkok).
When the second stage of the Amur bridge project and a motor road connecting
Khabarovsk and Chita are put into operation, the Krai’s involvement in motor
transportation and automobile freight transit will be considerably increased.
Foreign trade produces a great impact on Khabarovsky Krai economy.
Machinery and equipment, oil products, rough timber, ferrous and non-ferrous
metals, fish and seafood, and lumber account for the largest share of Khabarovsky
Krai exports.
China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, USA, and Vietnam are the Krai’s
key trade partners, they are responsible for 80% of the total foreign-trade turnover
in Khabarovsky Krai.
The following enterprises have become the Krai’s largest exporters of recent
years: OOO Rosneft – Komsomolsk Oil Refinery (limited liability company),
OOO Alliance-Khabarovsk (limited liability company), OOO Khabarovskaya
Toplivnaya Companiya (limited liability company), OAO Amurmetall (open joint
stock company), ZAO Smena-Trading (close joint stock company), OOO
Dalvtorsyrie (limited liability company), OAO Khabarovsk Shipbuilding Yard
(open joint stock company), ZAO Flora (close joint stock company), OOO
Arkaim Joint Venture (limited liability company).
Textiles, textile goods, footwear, machinery and equipment present the largest
portion of Khabarovsky Krai’s imports.
Table 1 exhibits macroeconomic developments of Khabarovsky Krai for the
recent 7-year period. Growth rates of goods and services production and
investments in the Krai’s economy and social domain are shown below.
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Table 1
Russian
Khabarovsky
Far-Eastern
Federation
Krai
Federal District
2007 versus 2000 (percentage)
Gross domestic product – sum
of gross regional products
Index of industrial production
Fixed capital investments
Agricultural produce
Transport freight turnover
Retail turnover
Real average wages
162.8
148.3
155.3
148.6
226.7
124.6
135.2
221.4
253.3
134.9
226.6
105.3
137.6
206.4
210.5
151.1
3.2-fold
117.1
114.0
208.5
225.0
Khabarovsky Krai’s lag in industrial production index and gross regional product
behind the Russian Federation and FEFD rates is attributed to the sharp decline in
production output of Komsomolsk-on-Amur Gagarin Aircraft Production
Association (KNAAPO) in 2006 due to the termination of export contracts, which
accounted for 80% of KNAAPO’s production volume in the previous years.
Basic indices of socioeconomic development of Khabarovsky Krai in 2000-2007
are shown in Addendum 1.
In 2001-2007, the number of employees working for Khabarovsky Krai
enterprises increased by 59,700 people, the output per one employee increased by
27.8% (in comparable figures), the output per one ruble of fixed capital increased
by 54%, while power intensity decreased by 31.3%.
For the same period of time, fixed capital investment per one employee increased
by 72.3% (in comparable figures), investment per one ruble of fixed capital – by
70%.
Federal and Krai budget payments per one employee increased 2.5-fold, payments
per one ruble of fixed capital increased by 33% (in effective prices).
Indices of the Krai’s economic development are shown in Addenda 2 and 3.
In 2006, Khabarovsky Krai’s gross regional product made 196.2 billion rubles, its
growth rate as compared to 2005 showed an increase of 105.3%. In 2007, the
Krai’s economy tended to grow, and the estimated gross regional product made
over 234 billion rubles, which was a 7-per cent increase versus 2006. An average
annual growth rate in 2001-2007 made 105.8%.
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Breakdown of Khabarovsky Krai’s gross regional product (hereinafter also
referred to as the GRP) in 2006 is as follows: the largest share falls on mining
operations, manufacturing activity, power generation, gas and water production,
and distribution thereof (25,4%); transport and communication account for 18,3%,
trade and public catering – 15,2%, agriculture and forestry – 7%, construction –
7,5%, property transactions, lease and services – 9,2%, other types of economic
activity – 17,4%.
Historically, Khabarovsky Krai’s economy has acquired an industrial structure
with fairly diversified commercial production facilities, including a complex of
defense industry enterprises.
2.5. Demographic and Migration Potential
As of January 1, 2008, the total number of Khabarovsky Krai’s resident
population made 1,403,700 people, including 1,130,800 city-dwellers (80.6%) и
272,900 country people (19,4%).
Around 80% of the Krai’s territory is rated as the extreme north areas along with
areas equated to the extreme north, where 43% of the population reside. Ethnic
villages compactly hold representatives of 17 indigenous smaller peoples of the
north. As per the 2002’ population census, the total number of indigenous peoples
of the north made 23,000 people (9.4% of Russia’s total indigenous peoples). Of
them, the largest in number are Nanais (8,200 people), Evenks (3,500 people) and
Ulchis (2,500 people).
Spatial distribution of Khabarovsky Krai population is irregular. The specific
settling features can be attributed to the Krai’s considerable territorial extension,
remoteness of communities from the Krai’s and district centers and difficulty of
access to such communities. The maximum density of population is registered in
the city of Khabarovsk – 1443.4 people per sq. km and in Komsomolsk-on-Amur
– 908.2 people per sq. km; whereas the lowest population density is found in
Ayano-Maisky, Tuguro-Chumikansky and Okhotsk districts – 0.02-0.03 people
per sq. km. As of January 1, 2008, an average population density of Khabarovsky
Krai made 1.8 people per sq. km, which is 1.6 times more than that of the FEFD
and 4.6 times less than that of Russia as a whole.
Of the total population, people of younger than able-bodied age make 16%, ablebodied population makes 66.1%, while people of older than able-bodied age make
17.9%.
As of 2007, life span of Khabarovsky Krai residents made 64.8 years, while
Russia’s average made 67.5 years and the FEFD’s – 64.9 years.
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Khabarovsky Krai’s demographic situation is similar to that in Russia of recent
years in the sense that the population declines and ages.
The number of Khabarovsky Krai’s economically active population makes around
54% of permanent residents.
Among those employed in Khabarovsky Krai’s economy, over 33% have a higher
professional education, over 31% – secondary professional education, 21% –
complete secondary general education, about 9% – elementary vocational
education.
Except for 2003 and 2007, when immigration exceeded out-migration by 554
people and 1904 people, respectively, migration produced a negative effect on
Khabarovsky Krai’s population potential. The positive balance of migration in
2007 was due to the changes in statistical registration of foreign nationals and
stateless persons.
The present day demographic potential of Khabarovsky Krai is insufficient for
dynamic socioeconomic development and national safety.
Labor Resources
During 2000 through 2007, Khabarovsky Krai labor force increased by 2.7% due
to the 20.4% increase in the number of employees older than the able-bodied age
and due to 5.7-fold increase in the number of foreign workers. At the same time,
the number of people of able-bodied age decreased by 1.7% during the period.
In 2007, Khabarovsky Krai’s labor force numbered 980,600, or 69.8% of the total
number of population. About 80% of the total people employed is comprized of
economically active residents with 95% thereof employed in the Krai’s economy.
Recent years’ economic growth has brought about positive changes in the labor
market, that is an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment. In
2000 through 2007, over 100,000 new jobs were introduced with over 40%
thereof being positions in small-scale business.
Consequently, Khabarovsky Krai employment during the above period increased
by 8.8%, the total number of unemployed decreased twofold – from 93,500 to
44,400 people, the total unemployment rate among the economically active
population dropped from 12.2% to 5.9% (Russian rate: 6.1%).
In terms of medium-term prospects, Khabarovsky Krai’s employment situation
will be overshadowed by population decline, which could become a limitative
factor for the Krai’s social and economic development.
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2.6. Provision for Transparent Functioning of Khabarovsky Krai Executive
Authorities
In order to enhance transparency of interaction between Khabarovsky Krai
executive authorities and civil society, several elements of e-government have
been introduced.
In 2008, the Khabarovsky Krai Laws website was launched where all effectual
governor’s and government’s enactments since 2005 to present were listed. State
Services Information Portal was also made available to the public, where over 80
state-offered services rendered to individuals and over 70 services rendered to
organizations were provided. Khabarovsky Krai Government Server now holds a
link to Administrative Regulations for State-Offered Services (Functions), where
approved administrative regulations and regulation drafts are available, and where
Krai’s residents and organizations can post their comments. In 10 months of 2008,
128,000 visitors of this section were counted up.
Enterprises and organizations widely use the Procurements link of the Krai’s
Government website, where procedural information on purchase orders (delivery
advice, reports, etc.), performance of works and services rendering procedures for
state and municipal needs of Khabarovsky Krai are available. In 2007, 1.46
million visits to the webpage were registered.
Krai’s Government website also holds helpful to entrepreneurs and investors
information about spaces available for lease or purchase.
In 2002, Khabarovsky Krai Small-Scale Business website was launched, where
legal, analytical, statistical, and other information was available to entrepreneurs.
Cooperation between the Krai’s business and executive authorities is implemented
within the framework of the Entrepreneurship Council under the Office of
Khabarovsky Krai Governor, and the Interbranch Council for elimination of
entrepreneurial obstacles under Khabarovsky Krai Government.
In 2006, Khabarovsky Krai Ministry of Economic Development and Foreign
Relations under Khabarovsky Krai Government opened a helpline to deal with
issues related to administrative barriers in small business relations with federal,
regional and municipal executive authorities.
3. Capabilities and Challenges of Khabarovsky Krai Development
Khabarovsky Krai possesses several competitive advantages, which can be
exploited for the Krai’s social and economic development. These include:
- the Krai’s natural resource potential, which is noted for its diverse structure and
prerequisites for natural resources effective use;
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- geographical location and transport infrastructure, which determines the transit
role of this region in the Russian Far East not only for cargo transportation but
also for telecommunications;
- relatively well-developed institutional and economic infrastructure (as compared
to the eastern regions of Russia);
- adequately diversified industrial production and relatively well-balanced
economic structure:
- sufficiently high professional, educational and cultural level of the majority of
population;
- concentration of higher educational establishments, cultural centers and
scientific institutions in the Cities of Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk-on-Amur,
which objectively makes Khabarovsky Krai a center of attraction for the majority
of areas of the Russian Far East (the number of the Krai’s students of higher
educational establishments in 2006 made 36% higher than Russia’s average, 587
versus 431 students per ten thousand residents);
- traditional openness of Khabarovsky Krai, its ties to the Pacific Rim countries
(especially the North-Eastern Asian states) in economics, trade, culture, science,
education, tourism, sports, social and academic exchanges;
- availability of considerable pollution-free space.
These potential advantages are already in use in Khabarovsky Krai. However, the
intensity of such utilization for the Krai’s social and economical welfare is
impacted considerably by the outside environment. Khabarovsky Krai is an open
system and its resources and potential depend on external parameters. Response
of the Krai’s economics and social system to the structure and dynamics of these
external influences can change markedly and often be painful. The following
external factors producing an effect on the state and dynamics of the Krai’s social
and economic system are worth mentioning:
- economic conditions of the domestic market (both inside the Far-Eastern region
and in Russia at large);
- conditions of sectoral markets in foreign countries;
- institutional construction at the federal and district levels;
- regional economic policy pursued by the state in respect of the Russian Far-East.
A SWOT-analysis of social and economic development factors presents the Krai’s
long-term strengths and weaknesses, advantages and threats to development.
16
SWOT-analysis of Khabarovsky Krai’s Social and Economic Development
Factors
Strengths
1. Geographical location and economic status:
- proximity to market outlets of Pacific Rim
and North-Eastern Asian countries;
- high transport and transit capacity due to
relatively
well-developed
transportation
network.
2. Abundance of diverse natural resources.
3. High
land
supply
for
economic
development.
4. Diversified economic system.
5. Inward capital investment by national
financial and industrial groups and
international corporations.
6. High educational level of the Krai’s
population.
7. Developed system of vocational education.
8. Political and social stability.
Weaknesses
1. Drastically long distance to the most
populated and economically developed
regions of the European Russia.
2. Irrational use of natural resources.
3. Lack of territories for continuous
development, which includes the majority
of northern territories, lack of agricultural
and arable lands, extreme climatic
conditions on the most part of the region.
4. Relatively low competitiveness of
manufacturing industry and agriculture,
partially due to high power rates and
transportation costs.
5. Underdevelopment
of
production,
transport and social infrastructure.
6. Population loss.
7. Relatively low living standard.
Potentialities
1. Effective public policy for regional social
and economic development to include:
- special economic, social and financial
incentives to economic and business
development in the FEFD;
- proactive approach to investment policy in
the FEFD;
- stimuli for economically active population
to permanently settle in the region.
2. Organization of transport-and-industry
development zones in the Russian Far East,
including an industrial and service belt in the
south, organization of a contact zone with
neighboring economies of the North-Eastern
Asia, and intensive development of аn
economic area along the northern latitude with
integrated industrial and transport zones.
3. Servicing of international transport and
power
corridors
and
infrastructural
engineering projects.
Threats
1. The Krai may become a raw material
appendage of developing north-eastern
Asian states.
2. Demographic desertification of the
territory due to natural population loss and
outward migration.
3. Deterioration of manpower potential
(ageing of skilled workers, outward
migration of qualified personnel due to
ever-widening gap in the living standards
and life quality between the Russian Far
East and European Russia).
4. Higher probability of ecological
catastrophes and natural disasters, due to,
among
other
reasons,
progressive
transborder pollution of the Amur River
basin, forest fires, etc.
5. High crime rate, including economic
crimes.
17
4. Strategy’s Goals and Objectives
Khabarovsky Krai Social and Economic Development Strategy up to the year
2025 is aimed to build up a socioeconomic system in the Krai’s territory such that
would provide the Krai’s people with high living standards and quality of life,
thus attaining the geopolitical objective of urging the people to stay in the Russian
Far East, settle down and enjoy their living in a highly competitive economic
environment, though with some ecological constraints. This is the only way to
make Khabarovsky Krai attractive for functional businesses and highly qualified
population groups. Attraction of new businesses and population to the Krai is
impossible without a steady improvement of living standards and concurrent
sharp reduction in the poverty rate and qualitative development of human
potential through the growth of real earnings of the Krai’s residents, valid state
guarantees, improvement in the quality of educational, medical, housing and
communal services, and protection of socially vulnerable strata of the population.
The Strategy’s main goal is made up of the following components:
Formation of a comfortable and safe environment for the Krai’s population by
fully exploiting the natural and geographical advantages. It implies decrease in the
poverty level, accelerated formation of the middle class, transfer of investment
emphasis to the human assets, growth of real earnings, thereby offering
unhandicapped economic freedom for the Krai’s residents. Consequently, the
Krai’s social standards could be leveled-off with the European Russia’s average,
including such basic standards as the level of medical, educational, cultural
services, protection of property rights, etc.
Formation of the Krai’s competitive economic system in the context of Russia’s
innovation strategy of economic development. The competitive economy would
be a foundation for dynamic and all-sided development of Khabarovsky Krai in
the years to come.
Stable and efficient (in terms of aggregate regional income growth) integration of
Khabarovsky Krai economy into the system of economic relations of the NorthEastern Asian and Pacific Rim countries as a whole. At that, the Krai’s task is not
only to become a stable participant in the international economic cooperation, but
to maintain a certain scope of relations corresponding to the Krai’s economic
potential, and establishment of stable cooperation with neighboring states in the
field of social, academic, scientific, cultural and tourist exchange.
18
Establishment and implantation of economic and social institutions within the
region, which would adequately meet the needs of the Krai’s socioeconomic
development. These would serve as a foundation for a truly comfortable business
environment, and particularly for creation of a valid partnership between private
and state sectors of economy, between the public and the state, and between the
public and the business.
The strategic goals mentioned above would, in their turn, become starting points
for development of economic, social, foreign-trade, environmental, spatial, and
other individual strategies (policies).
5. Social and Economic Policy as a Tool to Attain Strategic Goals
Regional socioeconomic policy is the main tool to realize strategic goals in the
field of economic development. Achievement of strategy-prescribed social and
human-potential indicators would depend on the degree to which economic tasks
are implemented. The aforesaid Krai’s economic openness implies
synchronization of strategic goals, on the one part, and activities and incentives on
the Krai level, on the other part, with the institutional environment and regional
economic policy of the Russian Federation.
The key principles and lines of the Krai’s social and economic policy are aimed
to:
- Form the middle class with earnings of no less than six-fold minimum wages,
reduce poverty rate;
- Create conditions for intensive development of educational, medical, housing
and communal services and improve the Krai’s ecological environment;
- Develop the manpower potential within the region and cut down the deficiency
of qualified workers;
- Create favorable investment climate and take measures to raise investment
attractiveness of the Krai’s industries;
- Eliminate infrastructure limitations: increase the power system efficiency and
reliability, improve the fuel balance structure, develop transport system and
modern types of communication;
- Develop small and medium scale business, reduce administrative barriers that
obstruct entrance in the market, encourage development of business structures;
- Promote development of market and financial institutions and develop the
financial infrastructure;
- Pursue such investment policy that provides for progressive achievement of the
Krai’s interests and priorities in line with the principles of federalism, division of
power and property, independence and self-financing of economic entities,
equitable competition, and goal-oriented subsidization of and state support to
socially significant projects;
- Establish a regional innovation system inclusive of necessary infrastructure,
venture fund, provision with personnel and legal regulations;
19
- Promote an image of Khabarovsky Krai as a leading constituent entity in the
field of economic and investment activities within the Russian Far East;
- Give active support to private (non-state) sources of capital investment in the
development of basic industrial, transport, communication and commercial
enterprises;
- Effectively cooperate with federal authorities, major financial and industrial
groups so as to raise investment from the federal budget and off-budget sources
for development of manufacture, transport and power supply infrastructure
projects;
- Cooperate within the framework of interregional projects to obtain favorable
results in several constituent entities of the Russian Federation;
- Cooperate with the Russian Federation constituent entities interested in lobbism
for settlement of socioeconomic problems common to the entire region at the
federal executive and legislative authorities.
5.1. Social Policy Priorities
The main priority in the social domain is to create an environment that would
guarantee the Krai’s attractiveness for people to live, provide incentives for new
residents to come and the current population to stay, which, as mentioned above,
is one of the most vital priorities of strategic development at large.
In line with the demographic trends of the last several decades, Khabarovsky Krai
is characterized by a steady population decrease, which is indicative of
demographic and, consequently, economic perspectives for the region. According
to the Federal Service for State Statistics data, the Krai’s population as of January
1, 2008 made 1,403,700 people, which is 221,000 people, or 13.6%, less than in
1991, the year when the Krai’s population was at its highest.
Outward migration in 1991-2007 accounted for 58.9% (130,100 people) of the
Krai’s total population loss, whereof 41.1% (90,900 people) of the population
decrease is attributed to natural loss. While the population decrease of 1991-1999
resulted mainly from outward migration, later on, starting with the year 2000, it
was the natural loss that was the main cause of the Krai’s population decline.
Hence, vital statistics rates are to be viewed as the basic characteristic of a
demographic status of the region.
An absolute number of Khabarovsky Krai births in 2007 as compared to 1991
made 75.5%. The 2007’ birth rate (number of births per one thousand people)
made 11.6 promille, which is below the rate (14.2 promille) that could ensure
reproduction of the population on a simple scale at least.
20
This index is indication of an active depopulation process in Khabarovsky Krai.
Khabarovsky Krai’s death rate (number of deaths per one thousand people)
jumped from 9.3 promille in 1991 to 14.2 promille in 2007. The same rate of 14.2
promille was observed in the nine months of 2008. It is anticipated that by the
year 2025 the death rate will not be lowered to the 1991’ level. And, therefore, the
natural loss of the population will continue to outnumber births within the region.
It is only extraordinary improvement of medical care, promotion of healthy
lifestyle, and improvement of water and food quality that would somehow
decelerate the mortality rate and contribute to higher life expectancy.
An increase in the rate of births and decrease in the rates of maternal and infant
mortality implies higher efficiency of municipal and state medical institutions,
further financing of construction, remodeling and re-equipment of public health
facilities, training of qualified personnel, and proactive measures to improve the
reproductive health of the population.
Better accessibility to high-tech medical care will be achieved after the new
regional-level medical facilities, such as oncological, perinatal, neurosurgical, and
clinicodiagnostic centers are put into operation.
21
Though the lower threshold of life expectancy of 61.7 years was surpassed in
2003, the 2007’ average lifespan in Khabarovsky Krai made 64.8 years but still
did not reach the level of 1989-1990 and remained below Russia’s average. A
national life expectancy level, as provided in the long-term strategy for Russian
Federation social and economic development up to the year 2025, makes 75 years.
Khabarovsky Krai’s life expectancy in the year 2025 makes 67 years under the
inertial development scenario and 72 years under the innovation development
scenario. Since independent achievement of national standards is not practicable,
Khabarovsky Krai has to rely on federal programs for an increase in the life
expectancy.
In some ways, the demographic potential of Khabarovsky Krai could be
strengthened by migration. Year 2007 was marked by a positive migration
balance. In 2007, 0.9 migrants left the Krai per each incoming migrant as
compared to 1.1 outgoing migrants in 2006.
If the 2007’ tendency of positive migration balance is maintained in the years to
come, then it may compensate for the natural loss of population (the natural loss
of 2007 made 3,700 people, while the migration balance made +1,900 people).
At that, the Krai’s population can be stabilized at 1,354,000 people by the early
2026 (inertial scenario).
With the immigration balance increasing and the natural loss decreasing, the
Krai’s population will presumably upsurge to 1,500,000 people (innovative
scenario).
22
The Krai’s manpower potential will be affected by an absolute decrease in the
number of able-bodied population. Therefore, employment policy up to the year
2025 has to be focused on attaining the most complete equilibrium of workforce
demand and supply, better quality and competitiveness of the Krai’s manpower
potential. Along with modernization of vocational education and qualification
upgrading system, a critical prerequisite for attainment of the goals would consist
in greater flexibility of the labor market and structural balance thereof and an
improved environment contributing to occupational and territorial mobility of the
population.
Unemployment decrease by 20,000 people, increase in the recruitment of foreign
workers by 55,000 people (80,000 people, or 9%, of the Krai’s total number of
employees), redundancies resulting from a higher labor efficiency achieved
through production modernization, introduction of science-intensive and resourcesaving technologies and environment-friendly production (additional 70,000
people), and increase in the number of employed pensioners are all considered
among the real sources for replenishment of the Krai’s labor potential.
High development rate of human potential remains an important goal since the
potential is indicative of the Krai’s general level of demographic development and
quality of available human resources (including level of education), social
infrastructure development, social environment comfort, etc.
In order to reinforce the population potential, it is necessary to:
- ensure population reproduction and stabilize its number through supporting
young families and youth in general, raising birth rate, lowering death rate, and
creation of social and economic prerequisites for further demographic growth;
- develop public health system, including modernization of the system of
compulsory health insurance and development of the system of voluntary
insurance;
- raise efficiency of social support efforts directed at individuals of certain social
categories and develop social work services for families with children, elderly and
handicapped;
- create a system of educational projects aimed at development of personnel
potential;
- promote free migration of labor force and efficient allocation of labor resources
(relocation of able-bodied residents from the northern and unpromising areas with
high unemployment level to the areas of favorable living conditions);
- implement migration programs that ensure an efficient balance of demographic and
labor resources (assisting in the resettlement of Russian nationals residing abroad or
residing in other regions of Russia).
Social infrastructure of the region has to be developed with a view of higher
standards of social service that are due to the severe climatic conditions and the
settler distribution pattern available.
23
One of the priorities up to the year 2025 consists in maintaining the level of social
security vital to certain categories of residents. Therefore, efforts aimed at
expansion of the range of social services, improvement of quality and
accessibility thereof through expansion of the social service institution network
will be made.
Comprehensive solution of problems related to social infrastructure development
within the region presupposes the following undertakings:
- identify efforts of state support to social infrastructure development up to the
year 2025 for the new housing development districts, subject to current standards;
- construct social facilities within the framework of national priority projects;
- construct social facilities within the framework of federal task program titled
Economic and Social Development of the Far-East and Trans-Baikal Regions up
to the year 2013 and other federal task programs;
- develop recreational facilities as a basis for promotion of health of the Krai’s
residents.
A system of target indices of the Krai’s social development, which is directed at
achieving higher than Russia’s average rates of quality of life and material
welfare improvement as per the innovative scenario is as follows:
- In 2025, the Krai’s population should make no less than 1,500,000 people,
which would be a 6.8-per cent increase, as compared to 2007;
- The number of the Krai’s employees should make no less than 870,000 people,
which would be an 18.4-per cent increase, as compared to 2007;
- The real income of the Krai’s residents in 2025 should increase 4.2-fold, as
compared to 2007;
- The real wages of the Krai’s employees in 2025 should increase 3.9-fold, as
compared to 2007;
- The number of people with an income less than the subsistence minimum in
2025 should not exceed 7.5% versus 15.5% in 2007;
- The number of middle-class residents in 2025 should reach 50% of the total
population versus 20% in 2007;
- The housing per capita index should be increased from 20.1 sq. m. of living
floor space to 32 sq. m. per head;
- All housing, which was statutorily determined as dilapidated or dangerous as of
January 1, 2008, should be totally eliminated within the region, and residents
should be resettled to dwellings equipped with modern amenities;
- The capacity of pre-school educational establishments should be raised by 30%
so that 90% of pre-school children could be admitted;
- In 2015, the amount of monthly child allowance should make half of the
subsistence minimum and become equal to the subsistence minimum by the year
2025;
- Life expectancy in the Krai should make 72 years versus the current figure of
64.8 years;
24
- The number of people doing regular physical exercise and going in for sports
should be increased from 13.8% of the total number of population in 2007 to 30%
in 2025.
It is anticipated that by the year 2025 the cash income growth rates will beat the
wages growth rates thanks to the implementation of federally financed measures
aimed at securing the population in the region and mobilization of additional labor
force (compensating for the cost of travel to vacation and recreation sites and back
home once in two years, health resort treatment once in two years, assistance in
acquisition of housing, etc.).
One of the main goals of regional social policy should be creation of a favorable
social environment, including high level of trust between the power, the society
and the business – otherwise, it is virtually unfeasible to realize the potential for
partnership between the state and the public.
Furthermore, social policy will also provide for measures aimed at considerable
improvement of regional environment, which implies not only improvement in the
social domain (housing and communal services, public health system, education,
and social welfare, etc.), but also improvement of population settlement pattern
and intra-settlement spatial organization.
Considering the Krai’s positive economic tendencies and the necessity to solve
current problems, social policy priorities are as follows:
- create such social environment, which would be equally qualitative for current
residents and employees and for potential residents;
- improve the living environment within both urban and rural communities
(groups of communities) so as to highlight their individual identities;
- implement a set of measures to promote healthy lifestyle, to inspire a renewed
interest in sports, to improve calisthenics among the residents, first of all among
children and student youth.
5.2. Basic Priorities of Economic Policy
Despite the positive results of the Krai’s economic development in recent years, a
set of negative elements still affects the Krai’s social and economic situation.
Although the Krai gained an incentive to succeed after the 1998’ financial crisis,
the Krai’s economy is still in the process of overcoming the consequences of fullscale economic crisis of the 1990’s.
25
Khabarovsky Krai’s economic recession during the time of crisis was more severe
than in Russia at large. For instance, the Krai’s industrial output in 1997 fell down
to 30.7% of the 1990’ level (Russian Federation – 44.9%, 1998), the Krai’s
investment volume fell to 19.2% of the 1990’ value (Russian Federation – 21.1%,
1998), 1995 Krai’s retail trade turnover fell to 56.9% of the 1990’ level (Russian
Federation – 84.3%, 1999) (the figures represent the fall maxima in the Kay and
Russian Federation, respectively).
The Krai’s economic problems, which had the same causes as nation-wide
economic problems, were intensified by the Far-Eastern specifics. Remoteness of
the region from the center and exorbitant growth of fuel and transportation costs
led to increased charges for electricity and heat, where the Far-Eastern rates were
incommensurable with those in other regions of the country. As a result, the
competitive strength of local products in domestic and foreign markets lowered
considerably, and the Krai was practically cut off from the economic space of
Russian Federation.
A huge setback in production of defense industry (a fall down to 6.7% in 1997
versus 1990), economic burden associated with the supply of goods and fuel to
the extreme north areas of the Krai, low efficiency of civil machine-building
brought about the noncompetitiveness of the Krai’s products in the European
Russia and the former republics of the USSR.
A program approach to overcoming the crisis and determining the priorities of
development by the Krai’s government provided for the positive results in the
economic development of recent years. The guidelines for restructuring of
Khabarovsky Krai’s economy (1995) were focused on overcoming the production
setback through stabilization of timber and fish industries and nonferrous
metallurgy along with development of transport and power infrastructure. As a
result, the second half of the 1990s was marked by the signs of stabilization and
output growth in the nature management industries.
The Strategic Concept of Khabarovsky Krai Development up to the Year 2010,
approved by the Khabarovsky Krai Government, identified an improvement of the
material welfare and quality of life of Khabarovsky Krai residents through a
dynamically developing economy as the basic goal of the regional economic
policy. Accordingly, a social and economic forecast up to the year 2010 was made
to serve as a basis for district and municipal, sectoral and functional development
programs.
During 2000-2007, dynamic development could be observed in machine-building,
timber, metallurgy and food industries. In 2005-2007, Khabarovsky Krai ranked
Russia’s third in forest harvesting and precious metal mining.
26
Currently, a basic gas-transport network of over 1,500 km in length has been built
in Khabarovsky Krai. Seven heat and power plants, 30 industrial enterprises, 20
heating boiler plants, 20 public utilities, and over 75,000 apartments are among
the natural gas consumers in the cities of Khabarovsk, Komsomolsk-on-Amur,
Amursk, and communities of Ulchsky, Solnechny, Amursky, Nikolaevsky,
Khabarovsky and Komsomolsky Districts.
A number of power generating and electricity supply facilities are under
construction or renovation in Khabarovsky Krai. The fourth power generating unit
was put into operation at the Third Thermal Power Plant of Khabarovsk. It
increased the reliability of power and heat supply for the growing demands of the
Krai’s social and economic development.
A transport infrastructure was developed, too. In 2001-2007, 419 km of hardsurface roads were put into operation, an asphaltic concrete road connecting
Khabarovsk, Lidoga, and Vanino, with an access road to Komsomolsk-on-Amur
and the Far-Eastern outlet to the sea in Vanino is under construction. SelikhinoNikolaevsk-on-Amur road is also being built. The second stage of railway bridge
construction is on the way near the city of Khabarovsk. In 2007, Khabarovsk
airport runway was rebuilt and the runway lighting was replaced. Nikolaevsk-onAmur airport runway is also in the process of renovation. In 2007, ExxonNeftegas Limited oil-loading terminal of De-Kastri port reached its full capacity
of 12 million ton of petroleum per year.
In 2001-2007, 1,252,000 sq.m. of newly-built housing were put into use. Nine
apartment buildings were erected for young families and over 1000 young
families were able to improve their housing conditions. Seven specialized
buildings, housing 295 apartments, were constructed for the WWII veterans in the
city of Khabarovsk and other communities of Khabarovsky Krai.
27
The positive growth of the Krai’s economy predetermined a strong growth of
basic material welfare factors. As compared to 2000, 2007’ real income growth
rates made 207.1%, while real wages grew by 210.5%.
At the same time, even positive tendencies of the recent years did not allow for
certain indices to reach the 1990’ level. For instance, the 1990’ Khabarovsky Krai
industrial production index made 58.9%, fixed capital investment – 91.8%, real
income – 95%, real wages – 89% (Russian Federation indices – 79; 59,2; 125;
101%, respectively).
Only 2002-2003 were marked by wage growth rates, which were higher than the
average rates in Russia. Despite the fact that 2007’ nominal value of Khabarovsky
Krai per capita wages was 16% higher than Russia’s wages, the cost of living in
Khabarovsky Krai remained to be considerably higher than that in Russia as a
whole. In 2000-2007, the purchasing power of Khabarovsky Krai per capita
income (relation to the cost of living) grew from 1.6 to 2.8 times versus 3.3 times
in Russia as a whole.
The total unemployment rate, calculated under the International Labor
Organization’s methods, from the year 2000 decreased by 6.3 percentage points to
make 5.9% (6.1% in Russia as a whole), the number of unemployed decreased by
49,100 people. As compared to the year 2000, the number of Khabarovsky Krai
employees in 2007 increased by 8.8% to make 734,500 people.
Regarding the Krai’s positive economic tendencies and the necessity to solve
current problems, the priorities of economic policy are as follows:
- To achieve and raise the power infrastructure efficiency by means of improving
the fuel and power balance, upgrading and renovating the generating capacities
along with the introduction of breakthrough technologies and equipment, building
new and modern capacities, and taking energy-saving measures;
- To achieve and raise the transport infrastructure efficiency, to set up modern
transport-logistic centers, pipeline and port capacities, to establish an air transport
center (hub) on the basis of (New) Khabarovsk airport facilities, taking into
account the need for developing the network of airports for local airlines, to
develop and increase the transit functions through construction of transport
corridors and highways, and completely satisfy the Krai economy’s needs for
freight and passenger transportation;
- To raise the efficiency of utilization of natural resources and to use them
comprehensively, cardinally increase the share of the goods processed in the
Krai’s territory, including fine processing, and raise the volume of finished
products in the aggregate output;
28
- To ensure the innovative nature of the Krai’s sectoral economic development,
technical and technological re-equipment of industrial process, to maintain the
existing innovation production capacities and to keep them viable, to develop
manufacture of new types of competitive goods, to train personnel and to
introduce innovation products to manufacturing process;
- To settle the investment issues for local economy and social development so that
the investment volume would ensure high rate of the Krai’s economic
development.
5.3. Environmental and Spatial Priorities
In addition to economic and social components, the strategy also contains
environmental and spatial targets.
At that, the regional environmental policy (which is most open of all policies
since the natural environment is unsusceptible to administrative boundaries)
should be inclusive of the following goals:
- To work out a set of measures to ensure not only reproduction of land and sea
biological resources but also conservation and reproduction of natural landscapes,
which are vitally important for indigenous peoples of the Amur River area and the
North;
- To comprehensively improve agricultural lands and to maintain existing
landscapes, which could be of interest to tourists or used for recreation;
- To work out a set of measures to ensure reduction of man’s impact on the
environment (man-made water, soil, and air pollution), including recycling and
waste recovery, and negative impact of natural phenomena like floods, forest
fires, etc.
Trans-boundary pollution of Amur, the Eurasia’s largest trans-boundary river,
compromises the environmental safety of the Russian Far-East and, therefore, this
issue should be resolved at the national level involving international
arrangements.
The agreement between the governments of the Russian Federation and the
People’s Republic of China dated January 29, 2008 on cooperation in preservation
of environment and conservation of trans-boundary water resources does bind the
both parties with an obligation to counteract the trans-boundary pollution of the
environment.
The Chinese party is currently implementing a program for sanitation
improvement of Sungari, the Amur River’s largest tributary, to the amount of 1.9
billion US dollars, while no similar measures are taken by the Russian party.
29
Disposal of toxic waste is also the issue of the day, which should be solved to
eliminate a threat to the wellbeing of the Krai’s residents.
Regional spatial priorities under the current Strategy consist in:
- Optimization of the current system of territorial arrangement of Khabarovsky
Krai’s economy to organize intra-regional economic districts or other territorial
entities with every such district being a potential object of program interest to be
covered by the current Strategy;
- Identification of spatial boundaries and business structures upon cluster
formation;
- Improvement of the existing system of population settlement with due
consideration for mobilization of migrants from other regions of the Russian
Federation and Russian nationals from abroad, and the transfer to the shift
methods of developing natural resource potential in the Krai’s northern areas.
5.4. Foreign Economic Priorities
One of main strategic priorities of Khabarovsky Krai development is its active
involvement in world economic relations in an effort to maximize sure and
indirect gains from rational exchange in the market of goods, services and
capitals.
Foreign economic relations have been a natural component and condition at every
stage of Khabarovsky Krai’s economic development. Currently, the Krai’s foreign
economic interactions mostly involve foreign trade and foreign capital raising.
The Krai’s foreign trade turnover of 2007, as per the data by the Ministry of
Economic Development and Foreign Relations, made 5.1 billion US dollars
(including oil exports by the Krai’s oil refineries, where customs formalities were
cleared by the marketing departments of NK Alliance and NK Rosneft holding
companies that were not registered in Khabarovsky Krai), which was a 3.5-fold
increase as compared to the year 2000.
In 2001-2007, the average annual growth rates of the Krai’s exports made
116.1%, imports – 140.5%. Despite the higher import growth rates, it was export
that accounted fot the major part of Khabarovsky Krai’s foreign trade turnover.
30
* The 2007’ data include exportation and importation of goods, service and bunker fuel as well
as exportation of fish and seafoods outside the Russian Federation customs area and
exportation of petroleum derivatives produced in Khabarovsky Krai.
Peak values of export, and, accordingly, goods turnover indices in 2001 and their
subsequent decrease in 2002 reflected the dynamics of large-scale export contract
performance by the Krai’s defense industry. For a number of years, these foreign
currency earnings accounted for the majority of the Krai’s exports. Starting with
2007, petroleum products produced by the Krai’s oil refineries were shipped for
export by the marketing departments of NK Alliance and NK Rosneft holding
companies that were not registered in Khabarovsky Krai. Therefore, the customs
statistics did not register the said products as a part of the Krai’s exports. As a
result, the official customs data showed an almost six-fold decrease (down to 392
million US dollars) of petroleum product exports in 2007. At the same time, the
manufacture of exported petroleum products by the Krai’s oil refineries was
comparable to the 2006’ volume.
The positive dynamics of Khabarovsky Krai import was attributed to the growth
of the intraregional effective demand, growing real income, investment activity
and ruble consolidation.
Products with high added value, like investment-purpose products and industrial
consumer goods, constituted the majority of 2000-2007 Krai’s import. These
products accounted for over 80% of the Krai’s import commodity structure in
2007.
The Krai’s exports of 2000-2007 were predominantly composed of petroleum
products, unprocessed lumber, ferrous metals, fish and seafoods, and machinebuildings products. As per the 2007’ data, petroleum products accounted for 60%,
unprocessed lumber – for 23%, ferrous metals – for 5%, fish and seafoods – for
2,3%, and machine-buildings products – for 1,6 % of the Krai’s export structure.
31
The main consumers of Khabarovsky Krai’s export products are the NorthEastern Asian countries, and, above all, China (44% of total value of the Krai’s
export), Japan (21%) and the Republic of Korea (10%). The North-Eastern Asian
countries are also the main importers to the region, including China (55%), Japan
(14%) and the Republic of Korea (7%). The breakdown by countries has been
calculated exclusive of the Krai’s petroleum products shipped for export by the
marketing departments of NK Alliance and NK Rosneft holding companies that
are not registered in Khabarovsky Krai.
Foreign trade plays an important part in the shaping of aggregate demand and
general growth rates in the Krai. An effective role of the external demand is
confirmed by the ratio of export to GRP, which made 44% in 2007.
The share of export remains invariably high in the Krai’s industrial production.
Exports account for 57% of the Krai’s manufacture of petroleum products, 56% of
fish and seafoods, and 52% of ferrous metals.
A share of imported consumer goods in Khabarovsky Krai retail goods turnover
in the recent years makes about 40%. Logistics of the Krai’s enterprises also
depends on import considerably. A share of imported machines and equipment
makes over 40% of the total imports.
Foreign investment promotion definitely has a strong impact on the Krai’s
economy, including an indirect impact through foreign trade.
The total volume of foreign investments made in Khabarovsky Krai’s economy in
1989 through 2007 is estimated to make 1.2 billion US dollars.
32
Recently, the volume of foreign investments in infrastructural sectors has been
growing. For instance, about 30% of the foreign capital raised were allocated to
the development of the Krai’s transport and communications in 2007.
In long-term perspective, the dynamics and scale of foreign economic relations
will considerably impact on the Khabarovsky Krai’s economic development.
Therefore, the region’s active incorporation into the world economic relations in
order to maximize direct and indirect gains from the rational exchange on the
market of goods, services and capitals should remain to be one of the principal
strategic priorities for Khabarovsky Krai development.
In order to accelerate the Krai’s development, to make it more efficient, to
overcome the current inertial nature, and to develop additional foreign economic
links, the efforts to promote Khabarovsky Krai’s economic development should
take shape as follows:
- Diversify the production and export structure through employment of research
activity results and finished products, and, first of all, high-tech goods and
services. This line of development will raise the competitiveness of products of
the local manufacturing industry;
- Provide for a sound investment climate (no less attractive than in the adjacent
Pacific Rim countries) to induce inward investment in the region. The highest
priority should be given to direct foreign investment since it encourages advanced
technologies and management methods, new job openings, increased production
and export volumes, and integration into the international economic space;
33
- Develop manufacturing cooperation in order to raise the competitive strength of
Khabarovsky Krai’s enterprises and to promote their goods to foreign markets.
This type of cooperation enables the transition to advanced production and
management methods and manufacture of products complying with international
standards. It opens up the possibilities for an increase in production of component
materials, complete units and component parts by the Krai’s enterprises, which, in
its turn, allows for gradual generation of a system of interrelated manufacturing
units. Participation in fulfilling orders by foreign companies facilitates product
marketing, including sale on foreign markets, due to incorporation into the
international technological and marketing chains;
- Render all-possible assistance in realization of production modernization
programs for the Krai’s industrial enterprises in order to raise competitiveness of
their products on world markets, to represent the Krai’s exporters vis-a-vis
international marketing systems, including lobby for their promotion to new
international and regional markets.
Russia’s accession to the global institutions will considerably impact on the
opportunity for Khabarovsky Krai’s to become organically integrated into the
processes of international economic cooperation and benefiting from the
international system of labor division
6. Scenarios for Khabarovsky Krai Development
Khabarovsky Krai’s economy is an open system, and its development trajectory
for the next 15-20 years will be rather strictly predetermined by the dynamics of
national economic development and world-wide economic trends.
In general, long-term trends for development of Khabarovsky Krai’s economy are
determined by a set of underlying conditions. On the one hand, by the Krai’s
current social and economic standing and the place occupied within the Russian
national economic system, and the Krai’s role in the existing interregional and
cross-border economic relations; on the other hand, by a set of probable scenarioinduced conditions predetermining the various ways to modernize regional
economy so as to meet global markets requirements. At the same time, the
framework limitation consists in the sustainable development of the region and
improvement of residents’ welfare.
The specifics of the beginning stage of the Strategy consist in new challenges to
sustainable economic and social development of Khabarovsky Krai. The main
challenge is the global financial crisis, which has provoked fluctuations of
financial markets and prices on energy carriers and foodstuffs. Within the
framework of globalization, such instability affects all economies of the world,
including the Russian Federation in general and Khabarovsky Krai in particular.
34
It will particularly impact on the export-oriented companies, like Amurmetall
Public Company, timber-processing enterprises, the Far-Eastern Railroad, a
branch of Russian Railroads Public Company, and companies implementing
investment projects within the region or supplying goods to projects under
construction within and outside the territory of the Krai.
Consequently, the figures of the Strategy’s starting stage (years 2008-2009) will
turn out to be lower than predicted before. Characteristics of the within scenarios
of development were based on an assumption that the post-crisis growth of the
world economy and then Russia’s and Khabarovsky Krai’s economy will
probably be resumed in 2010. The investment projects of the first stage of the
Strategy that underlie the innovative scenario are expected to be realized with a 24-year delay in time.
A number of exogenous factors were taken into account upon scenario
development. The Russian Federation in general and Khabarovsky Krai in
particular occupy rather low starting positions in the competitive environment of
the world economy.
There are four factors for Russia’s efficient integration into world economy. The
first three are highly significant for Khabarovsky Krai: natural resources,
geographical location, and vacant pollution-free space. However, only the fourth
factor—research, educational, and innovation potential—can provide for a sharp
increase in the share of intellectual labor in the value of goods produced within
the region to impart a competitive advantage to the Krai’s products on the world
and national markets.
The transition to the innovation path of development is vitally important for
Khabarovsky Krai. The Krai’s specifics consist in a limited competitiveness of
manufacturing industries due to the remoteness of markets, outdated technologies,
and high power and transportation costs. Innovation changes would allow of
raising the efficiency of manufacturing industries, increasing the gross added
value produced within the region and increasing the gross regional product.
In the current circumstances of population scarcity and manpower and qualified
personnel deficiency, the innovative scenario of the Krai’s economic development
actually leaves no alternative. Introduction of innovations into economics and
social domain is a key factor to solve the problems of labor-saving, labor
efficiency raising, GRP increasing, and, finally, provide for the competitive
strength of the Krai’s economic system.
35
The fundamental difference between the two scenarios of Khabarovsky Krai’s
development lies in the degree to which each of the four integration factors is
employed. The inertial scenario is based on the exploitation of the Krai’s natural
resources, geographical location and spatial aspects thereof. The innovative
scenario focuses on using a research, educational, and innovation potential in
addition to the three factors mentioned above. Attainment of strategic goals is
only possible under implementation of the innovative scenario. Therefore, all
efforts of the Krai’s government will be directed to implementation of this option.
6.1. Inertial Scenario
The inertial scenario is based on the assumption that main types and kinds of
business have already been structured and have settled within the Krai, and they
are regarded as effectively functioning entities within the framework of the
existing system of economic relations within Russia. Presumably, these
businesses are not going to be influenced by sudden changes, while transport and
transit functions are going to strengthen along given the raw material potential of
the Krai’s economic system. Despite the inertial nature of these processes, this
scenario runs several internal and exogenous risks inherent in its implementation.
It is characterized by relatively low rates of GRP growth, and, consequently, low
rates of improving the material welfare of the Krai’s residents, and it remains
strongly dependent on the decisions adopted at the federal level.
6.1.1. Prerequisites for Inertial Scenario Implementation
The inertial scenario of Khabarovsky Krai’s development has the following
prerequisites for implementation:
- Shaping trends of foreign trade between Russia and the Pacific Rim countries—
stronger position of exported Russian raw produce on the Pacific Rim market;
implementation of a number of major projects to develop a transport infrastructure
for raw material handling; growth of imported freight from the Pacific Rim
countries. The basic freight and container traffic will be represented by the supply
flows from the North-Eastern and South-Western Asia to Europe and the United
States as well as Russian freight supplies for export;
- A change in the international trade geography that will result in greater
significance of Euro-Asian transport corridors;
- A demand for pipeline and port infrastructure is increasing;
- Transit freight traffic within Russia and foreign countries acquires greater
significance, and Khabarovsky Krai’s local transport system gets involved in
servicing of the cross-border shipping operations;
36
- Infrastructural restrictions for the Northern China getting harder, the Chinese
government will seek to find the shortest way to sea ports for the North-Eastern
region of China.
When the above trends become more pronounced, the Khabarovsky Krai’s
specialization as a raw produce supplier and a transit center would be fixed and
would gain momentum, as predicted by the inertial scenario. At that, the
hypothetical development of the Krai’s economic sectors will happen as follows:
- transport sector will expand dynamically through implementing projects for
construction of transport terminals for trans-shipment of coal, metals, petroleum
and petroleum products, high-capacity containers, and creation of a special
economic zone around Sovetskaya Gavan port, and construction of Eastern
Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline system;
- infrastructure of the border trade facilities will also develop;
- Khabarovsky Krai will maintain its position within the Russian Far East’s fish
industry and the raw material specialization of fishing will remain unchanged;
- Khabarovsky Krai’s timber industry will keep growing due to the development
of woodworking enterprises with minimal timber processing functions;
- given the state support (government contracts), the Krai’s aircraft construction
and shipbuilding will develop;
- given the state policy on the use of natural resources is unchanged, the source
for precious and nonferrous metals available, and the current prices for precious
metals, importance of the Krai’s mineral extraction and processing industry will
be preserved. Reduction in the number of proven deposits with confirmed
reserves will be one of the major problems of the industry, unsolvable under the
inertial scenario. It is a lack of the production capacities required and deficiency of
funds for geological prospecting rather than the physical depletion of the Krai’s
mineral stock that is the cause of the reduction.
6.1.2. Risks Inherent in Inertial Scenario for Khabarovsky Krai
The inertial development of Khabarovsky Krai’s economy has well-defined
growth limits associated with exhaustion of its resources (natural and human
resources and environmental stability). At that, the inertial development can bring
to light the serious internal problems of regional socioeconomic development that
have resulted from the previous crisis or become apparent due to the new
economic situation.
Principal risks of Khabarovsky Krai inertial development may be divided into
external and internal ones.
External risks:
37
1. Instability of the external market behavior. Primary production specialization
makes the Krai’s socioeconomic development highly dependent on the goods and
raw material market conditions. These are cyclic in character—a rise in prices for
the products of basic sectors of economy may change for stagnation or, even,
recession any time.
2. Instability of Russia’s position of a supplier on the key raw material markets of
the Pacific Rim since the Pacific Rim countries pursue a policy of diversification
of raw material supply sources.
3. Limited opportunity for Khabarovsky Krai government to influence the
investment processes on account of the strong dependence of investment
processes within the Krai on the developmental priorities of large corporations,
the leaders of key industries. On the one hand, asset consolidation in basic sectors
of the Krai’s economy and restructuring of business processes of large
corporations creates an opportunity for emergence of big players capable of
implementing large-scale investment projects and resistant to market price
fluctuations, but, on the other hand, it decreases the potential for regional and
municipal authorities to impact on the large companies. In particular,
Khabarovsky Krai is already encountering difficulties owing to large companies
selling their produce at transfer prices, where the goods produced inside the
region are sold by trading companies at market prices outside the region. Due to
tolling, the largest companies save hundreds of millions of rubles on profit tax
annually, which is a huge loss for the Krai’s budget.
In a long-term perspective, the above situation may result in that the structure of
investment in Khabarovsky Krai economy as provided in the inertial scenario:
- would, in fact, act to maintain the old economic structure;
- would increase the share of extractive industries in the regional industrial
production structure;
- would not generate any processes of new qualitative growth in the regional
economic system.
4. High geopolitical risks (especially in part of increased Chinese transit and
Russian energy carrier export to China).
5. Unstable tariff policy of the Russian Federation. Realization of regional transit
potential depends on the Russian Federation tariff policy. For instance, after the
Russian Federation Ministry of Transport removed preferential terms in January
2005, the transit freight transportation rate grew two-fold, in fact, and the volume
of Trans-Siberian Railroad transit container traffic decreased by several times.
38
6. Implementation of competitive projects associated with transport corridors
bypassing Russia. One of such projects is to construct a railroad alternative to the
Trans-Siberian Mainline, which may be implemented if the Chinese program of
railroad system modernization is a success (the program provides for highthroughput railroad track from the eastern to the western borders to join the
TRACECA1 transport project in Central Asia and Kazakhstan). Another similar
project is a part of the Tumangan Project (unimplemented), which is associated
with China’s lease of some port capacities in Rajin (Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea).
The internal risks are as follows:
1. The decrease in Khabarovsky Krai’s significance in the spatial development of
the Russian Federation. Given the current inertia of economic development,
providing that the majority of the Krai’s extractive projects is nevertheless
implemented, the Krai runs a risk of becoming a double periphery—both of the
Russian Federation and of the Pacific Rim. It is highly probable that the Krai will
be unable to win the dominance on raw material markets of the Pacific Rim,
formerly traditional for Russia, since the buyers will have alternative choices for
actually any kind of raw produce. Supplying raw products westward (to the
internal Russian markets and to those markets, which are more mature than the
Pacific Rim) will involve many barriers, like alternative supply from sources
within the country which are closer to the consumers, and infrastructural
limitations. Under the circumstances, Khabarovsky Krai is at real risk of
considerable developmental lag as compared to other regions.
2. Low level of technological development of the Krai’s basic sector of economy
and deeper regional technological lag. Currenty, the Krai is largely specializing in
production of goods with low added value (petroleum products of primary
refining, and export of round timber). Despite the presence of defense industries
in the Krai’s industrial mix, what needs considering is a relatively small share of
high-tech and medium-tech industries. Besides, the innovation capacity of the
existent industries is quite low. Growing specialization in extraction of natural
resources and export of primarily processed goods raise the probability of
technological lagging behind the advanced entities of the Russian Federation.
Risks of obsolete goods production and prevalent manufacture of low added value
products are accumulating. The technological lag leads to low indices of
productive capacity and labor productivity, high specific material and energy
consumption, and preservation of obsolete manufacturing methods.
1
TRACECA (Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia).
39
3. Growing labor resource deficiency. Due to a complicated demographic and
migration state of affairs in the Russian Far-East and in Khabarovsky Krai,
disproportions of the labor market are predicted to increase. As estimated by the
very enterprises, the region is particularly lacking personnel resources. Even if
the demographic situation slightly improves, the Khabarovsky Krai will continue
to experience a deficiency of human resources, since, under the inertial scenario,
the migrant inflow will not increase substantially.
4. Low urban environment development rate. The main parameters indicative of
the state of affairs in this domain are as follows:
- relative underdevelopment and small scale of the real estate markets within the
region (housing and commercial markets alike);
- underdevelopment of innovative formats of trade, urban infrastructure, public
catering, entertainment industry, and cultural and educational activities;
- high crime rates in the large cities of Khabarovsky Krai.
5. Aggravation of territory-related economic disproportions with economic
development more and more concentrating in the southern zone (in the large cities
of Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk-on-Amur). The gap in the level of
socioeconomic development and sound investment climate among the
municipalities will not only persist but also continue widening.
6.2. Innovative Scenario
6.2.1. General Prerequisites for Innovative Scenario of Khabarovsky Krai
Development
The strategic potential of the innovative development of the Krai’s economy is
determined by a number of parametric conditions:
- the Krai’s geographic location and position within the economic system of the
Russian Far-East and Russia at large, its role in the system of interregional and
foreign economic links;
- probable conditions predetermining different potentialities for regional economy
modernization, based on the priorities of national economic policy, priorities and
limitations in utilization of sources for growth, formation and stimulation of the
regional centers of economic development towards integration into the Pacific
Rim.
Factors and limitations stemming from the national tendencies and priorities of
development, which constitute the parametric environment for the Strategy of the
Krai’s social and economic development, were adopted under the Concept for
Long-Term Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation up to
the Year 2020.
40
Wide-scale use of technological innovations as well as innovations in all areas of
human life are assumed in the context of the innovative scenario of the Krai’s
social and economic development. At the same time, constant technological
renovation of production process along with the managerial and social
innovations are to become a standard in doing business and in public conduct.
In an effort to ensure the innovation-based technological breakthrough in the City
of Khabarovsk, the Pacific Polytechnical University, world-class educational
facilities, is projected to be set up on the basis of the Pacific State University.
Economic innovations are to be aimed at structural improvement and greater
efficiency and qualitative development of production apparatus, competitive
strength of regional goods and services on both domestic and foreign markets, and
strong economic development dynamics.
The innovative nature of economic growth should be based on employment of
competitive advantages of the Krai’s sectors of economic specialization, which, in
its turn, would bring about new growing points at both sectoral and territorial
levels.
One of the main lines of development consists in production of home innovations
and systematic and comprehensive use thereof. This involves raising the scientific
sector efficiency, creation of efficient structures and mechanisms, which would
ensure transfer of innovations from the developers to the consumers.
Innovations of the social domain should be aimed at a cardinal improvement of
the quality of human potential, expansion of the volume and improvement of the
quality of social services (public health, education, culture, tourism and sport,
social work and social welfare, etc.), creation of comfortable ‘habitat’ (housing
conditions, infrastructural improvement, environmental situation, personal
security, etc).
The main tasks for the Krai’s social development to be accomplished through
innovations are seen as follows:
- Raise the extent of high-tech medical aid, raise the computerization level of
public health system, use telemedicine extensively, develop air medical service
and the Krai’s own air medical service infrastructure so as to administer first aid
in the remote northern areas and difficult of access regions, develop regional
recreation facilities for improvement of public health, set up an innovation center
to be engaged in development of modern medical technologies and their
application to practice;
41
- Apply modern medical technologies to the Krai’s public health institutions,
intensify treatment and diagnostic processes;
- Raise the quality of education on the basis of introducing new structures and
content, to develop advanced information technologies in the field of education,
including distance education, raise efficiency of teaching process, introduce
various organizational models for specialty education, introduction of advanced
information systems, qualitative improvement of educational logistics;
- Render social services using information and telecommunication technologies;
- Provide positive environment to maintain library stock, cultural heritage, expand
public access to spiritual values, expand the range of cultural services rendered,
including use of multimedia projects, high-quality digital technology-based
copying of museum exhibits and other pieces of cultural value.
The main tasks of the Krai’s economic development to be accomplished through
innovative approach are as follows:
- Substantially improve labor productivity;
- Lower energy intensity in the manufacturing sector;
- Raise efficiency and comprehensiveness of natural resources utilization; increase
a share of finished products with high added value;
- Raise output of science-intensive products;
- Improve reliability and efficiency of the Krai’s infrastructural support system.
The implementation of the Strategy implies a number of stages. In this context,
two main stages can be singled out:
- The beginning stage, when the already existing potential for economic growth
should be used to the utmost extent and institutional conditions that would
provide for subsequent transition from a ‘catching-up’ model to the innovation
model of economic growth (years 2009-2015) should be organized at the same
time;
- The stage of leading-rate development, when the innovation model of regional
economic growth is launched (years 2016-2025).
6.2.2. Risks Associated with Innovative Scenario
Factors limiting the innovative scenario will include problems accumulated in
economics and social domain, in production apparatus structure, and investment
structure. Problems of demographic development will also show up, so will the
problems of infrastructural underdevelopment, and product competitiveness and
lacking personnel.
42
The main risks of the innovative scenario include the following:
1) Considerable technological lag of the production apparatus, large share of worn
and obsolete assets in the Krai’s economy, including the manufacturing industries;
2) Inadequate welcoming conditions for investment, higher investment risks in the
manufacturing industries will determine the deficiency of investment needed for
upgrading, technical and technological re-equipment of the Krai’s enterprises,
first of all in the manufacturing industry;
3) Relatively low level of research activities (as compared to Russia’s leading
scientific centers) underlying the Krai’s own innovation developments;
4) Small number of innovative enterprises and organizations, minor volume of
investment allocated to development and implementation of innovations;
5) Underdevelopment of the infrastructure to put the innovations into practice;
6) Increasing deficiency of qualified personnel, ageing of personnel;
7) Inadequate system of qualified personnel training;
8) Considerable competitive pressure on the part of foreign and domestic
producers, impediments to promotion of novel local products and to occupying
one’s own niche on the market.
6.2.3. Regional Prerequisites to Innovative scenario
In spite of the growing basic indices of socioeconomic development in the
Russian Far East in the early 2000s, and greater interest in the region on the part
of the federal authorities, the regional parameters of the Krai’s development are
still understood as expansion of a raw material-oriented and transition model of
economy, where indices of regional social dynamics are inertial in nature. The
economy of the Russian Far-East was strengthened by the Russian Federation
government, which, in November 2007, approved of the revised federal task
program titled Economic and Social Development of the Far East and TransBaikal Area up to the Year 2013, where the state investment in the development
of FEFD power, transportation and engineering infrastructure was assigned.
43
The pattern and trajectory of the Krai’s development up to the year 2025 is
predetermined by a set of large investment projects and proposals that already
have real investors. These projects involve the mineral-and-raw stock and fueland-power sectors, manufacturing industries, and transportation (including
pipeline and port) infrastructure, and now they undergo a stage of pre-design
preparation and development. These projects will actually provide for a 108-per
cent average annual increment in the gross regional product in 2010-2020. But,
with time, the rates of growth can prove lower due to the exhaustion of the
regional resource factors of growth and worsening of the demographic situation.
However, if the investment projects in the manufacturing industries are
successfully implemented and manufacture of innovation products is organized,
an estimated 8-per cent average annual GRP growth rate is expected to persist up
to the year 2025 and will make 7.3% during 2007-2025
Under any Far-Eastern development scenario and model, Khabarovsky Krai will
remain to be one of the most developed and integrated subsystems of the FEFD’
southern zone.
The Krai’s economic structure is diversified. The reserves of timber, nonferrous
and precious metals (tin, copper, gold, and silver), and valuable species of fish,
make Khabarovsky Krai to stand out not only within the Russian Far East but also
in Russia. However, the raw material industries account only for 9.4% of the
aggregate gross added value (2006). Despite the natural resources available,
Khabarovsky Krai is incapable of an industrial spurt similar to that evidenced in
large raw-material projects, e.g. Sakhalin shelf development and Western and
Southern Yakutia’s reserve exploitation.
Nevertheless, the raw-material and transition model of the Far-Eastern
development provides for the structural potentials for further industrialization of
Khabarovsky Krai’s economy. Projected power infrastructure for transit of fuel
and power resources (Eastern Siberia–the Pacific Ocean pipeline, gas main
pipelines from Yakutia and Sakhalin, and high-voltage lines), the Northern
Latitude Route and Trans-Siberian Railway Route by the year 2020 will constitute
a powerful energy and raw material transit corridor within the region oriented to
the centers of power and resource consumption in the North-Eastern Asian
countries. In the east, this corridor borders on the pipelines transporting Sakhalin
hydrocarbons (crude oil and natural gas).
The framework for the new national specialization of regional economy is being
made up in the Krai. In terms of fuel and power commodity items, Khabarovsky
Krai is turning into an export-oriented transit zone for crude oil, natural gas, and
coal with goods turnover of over 100 million tons per year.
44
However, these large-scale investments into the power and terminal infrastructure,
and export transit of fuel and minerals cannot produce a structural push, cannot
become the engine for regional economic growth improvement of material
wellbeing of the Krai’s residents. New medium-tech industrial projects have to be
created for utilization of existing resources and for processing the raw materials
and semi-finished goods brought through the Krai’s territory in transit.
6.2.4. Economic Rationale of Innovative Scenario
The economic basis for the innovative scenario of Khabarovsky Krai development
up to the year 2025 is aimed at strengthening of the Krai’s specialization in
national and international division of labor owing to exploiting and processing of
the Krai’s own and transiting natural resources, consistent policy of
modernization and development of manufacturing industries, and rendering
innovation and infrastructural services.
The following structural priorities and decisions underlie the innovative scenario:
- to create a strong, multifunctional and specialized transport infrastructure as a
foundation for realizing Khabarovsky Krai’s production and transit potential, for
intensification of the Krai’s cooperation and integration with the constituent
entities of the Russian Federation, the Russian Far East, Siberia and Pacific Rim
countries;
- to raise the efficiency and stability of industries exploiting the Krai’s natural
resources;
- to revive and develop high-tech manufacturing industries on the basis of existing
defense enterprises, meant for interregional, national and international needs;
- to diversify the Krai’s industrial system by organizing modern processing
industries using local and transiting power and mineral resources, forest products
and electric power;
- to provide for innovation nature of the Krai’s sectoral economic development,
technical and technological re-equipment of production process, to switch over to
manufacture of new competitive types of goods, to establish mechanisms for
applying innovation products to manufacturing;
- to provide manufacturing capacities, basic settlement zones and centers with
transport, power and engineering infrastructure;
- to improve the quality of living of the Krai’s residents by the innovation
development of social domain;
45
- to develop the Krai’s vocational education as a highly effective branch of
economy by means of attracting youth from other constituent entities of the
Russian Federation, Russian Far East and North-Eastern and South-Eastern Asian
countries to the Krai’s vocational educational institutions and by using the
existing scientific potential to expand the innovation component of the regional
production.
The Far-Eastern Federal University to be organized on the basis of the Pacific
State University will become an impetus to development of higher school system,
to subsequent integration of system of professional educational on a regional
scale, to higher competitiveness of the educational system and key branches of
economy, to fulfillment of the current tasks of national migration policy, and to
strengthening of regional ties with the Pacific Rim countries.
Industrial sector serves as the foundation of Khabarovsky Krai economic
development under the innovation scenario, though its share in the gross regional
product remains virtually unchanged in the long-term perspective. Perspective
structure of the Krai’s economy rests on the parity growth of the key non-industry
sectors (transport, trade, etc.). However, assessment of promising intersectoral
exchange shows that, even with high growth rates of the transport freight turnover
due to the international and interregional transit over the Krai’s territory, active
growth of communications and trade sectors, ascending macroeconomic indices
can only be achieved through an adequate rate of the Krai’s industrial
development. The macroeconomic indices under the innovation scenario of
Khabarovsky Krai’s Development Strategy are shown in Table 2.
Table 2
(per cent in comparable prices)
Index
Gross regional
product
Fixed capital
investments
Industry
Agricultural
products
Retail trade
turnover
Transport Freight
turnover
Communication
2008-2015
2016-2025
2008-2025
Average
Average
Average
Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth
Rate
Rate
Rate
2025
versus
2007
105,2
109,1
107,3
355,0
109,0
110,5
109,8
537,5
106,5
103,0
109,1
101,7
107,9
102,3
391,0
149,5
106,3
106,7
106,5
311,8
111,2
102,9
106,5
309,4
112,6
108,4
110,2
577,3
46
Index
2008-2015
2016-2025
2008-2025
Average
Average
Average
Annual
Growth
Annual
Growth
Annual Growth
Rate
Rate
Rate
2025
versus
2007
services
The innovation features of the Krai’s development largely depend on a national
system of innovation stimuli and support to be set up. At the same time,
conditions for triggering the mechanisms causing innovation diffusion have to be
created within the regional economics.
Basic prerequisites of the innovation scenario provide the innovation effects of the
Krai’s economic growth within the framework of renewal and gradual
modernization of high-tech industries on the basis of the existing defense
enterprises, civil machine-building enterprises, electric power engineering
enterprises, and the engineering infrastructure enterprises. Innovation features will
become a part of new investment projects within the Krai. Capital-intensive and
highly efficient resource development and processing projects and transport and
power supply infrastructure development projects are spheres open to and
interested in innovations areas. However, this entails a transfer of material
technologies, which are large-scale and highly specialized in a pattern of use, but
nevertheless incapable of presenting as an ‘innovation booster’.
Further development of research potential within the region – creation of a local
innovation system by means of stimulating nonfinancial forms of transfer and
increasing the level of processing complexity of material forms of technology
transfer. Material transfer of technologies, on the whole unavoidable for the
inertial conditions of Khabarovsky Krai’s economic development, is absolutely
required for the innovation scenario. However, the scenario’s mission is to
supplement the material transfer, induced by the industrial sector and
infrastructure entities, firstly, by newly created raw material processing industries,
and, secondly, by the system of generating and distributing the scientific and
innovation knowledge owing to the support and development of science-intensive
industries (including those oriented on dual-purpose technologies), to creation of
innovation entrepreneurship zones (clusters) within the Krai that are integrated
into the Eastern-Asian market of innovation products.
At the same time, the innovation entrepreneurship functions and coordination are
delegated to:
- high-tech manufacturers within the Krai (Komsomolsk-on-Amur Gagarin
Aircraft Production Association (KNAAPO), Amursky Cable Plant, and
Khabarovsk Shipbuilding Yard), and to enterprises realizing the research
potential, including those that utilize civil, military and dual-purpose
technologies, which were set up on their basis;
47
- Russian and foreign corporations, implementing innovation projects that are
within their technological interest, in developing power, mineral and timber
resources;
- organizations involved in development, commercialization and distribution of
knowledge in the area of technological innovations and novel materials;
- federal and regional authorities, which direct funds to support and develop
strategic and promising scientific and technological trends, coordinate work on
innovation technologies and materials done within the framework of federal and
departmental task programs and individual programs of regional development and
projects implemented by the business community.
6.2.5. Innovation-Based Development of Key Sectors of Economy
In order to implement the innovation scenario of development, to stimulate the
Krai’s economic growth and to improve the material wellbeing of the Krai’s
residents in the long-term perspective, a number of investment projects and
proposals have been developed to be implemented in Khabarovsky Krai up to the
year 2025 and to influence various fields of activity, including development of
power, transport, engineering and social infrastructure.
Non-Ferrous Metallurgy
The basic conditions required for development of non-ferrous metals mining in
Khabarovsky Krai are as follows:
- develop areas of mineral and raw material supply and to raise the volume of
precious metals mining predominantly due to ore deposit exploitation;
- introduce innovative technologies, including those intended for comprehensive
processing of polymetallic ores of the tin ore deposits with concurrent recovery of
associated metals;
- include final tailings and technogeneous waste of mining enterprises into
processing.
The following new mineral deposits are planned to be exploited in the future:
Avlayakan (Ayano-Maisky District), Kirankan (Tuguro-Chumikansky District),
Svetloe (Okhotsk District), Kutyn (Tuguro-Chumikansky District), Belaya Gora
(Nikolaevsky District), Delken (Ulchsky District), Durmin (Lazo District), Noni
(Verkhnebureinsky District), and others.
48
In case the reserves of Mnogovershinnoe, Yurievskoe, Khakandzhinskoe, Tukchi,
and Krasivoe gold deposits currently developed are depleted, the development of
deposits mentioned above will provide for 20-22 tons of gold per year in 20202025, which is a 1.4-1.5 time increase as compared to the year 2007.
Albazino Ore Mining and Processing Enterprise in Poliny Osipenko District and
Amursk Hydrometallurgical Plant for processing the gold ore concentrate
produced by Albazino Ore Mining and Processing Enterprise with estimated
capacity of 4.5 tons of gold a year are the prime projects for innovation
development of precious metal mining in Khabarovsky Krai.
Within the framework of implementing the innovation scenario, this project will
become interregional in the future: if the hydrometallurgical plant capacity grows
to 7-8 tons of gold per year, then gold ore concentrate supplies from other FarEastern deposits for processing at this plant will turn practicable.
Currently, about 30 percent of Russia’s tin is mined in Khabarovsky Krai.
Pravourmiiskoe tin ore deposit is the key project for developing the tin mining
industry in Khabarovsky Krai. Tin reserves of this deposit will ensure provision
of high-quality tin for the domestic industry for upcoming 50 years. Owing to
modernization, remodeling and expansion of capacities of Pravourmiiskoe ore
dressing factory and development of Krasivaya zone of Festivalnoe Deposit and
Silinskaya Zone of Perevalnoe Deposit, and, given that working of Sobolinoe
Deposit would start in 2015, tin ore concentrate production is planned to reach
6,000 tons per year, copper ore concentrate – 5,000 tons per year. Non-ferrous
metal concentrates are planned to be promoted to both domestic and foreign
markets.
Further expansion of precious metal mining is limited by the inadequate supply of
reserves and low precious metal content in the treated ores and gravel. An increase
in confirmed reserves will not be sufficient to compensate for the needs of precious
metals mining—this fact represents the de facto mining industry situation in the
FEFD.
To ensure the long-term development of mineral resource industry in
Khabarovsky Krai, the problem of considerable increase in confirmed mineral
reserves should be solved on the national level by way of state financing of
mineral resource reproduction, including allocation of a part of taxes and royalties
thereto.
Khabarovsky Krai ferrous metallurgy is represented by Amurmetall Open Joint
Stock Company, the Russian Far East’s only metallurgical facility, which is
located in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. This enterprise produces rolled sheet, rolled
section steel, roll-formed sections, and other metal products and it is one of the
most dynamically developing enterprises in Khabarovsky Krai.
49
The Company’s development program provides for a steel production volume
increase from 0.9 million ton output in 2007 to 2.2 million tons of steel in 2010.
One of the Company’s basic manufacturing trends is to produce formed metal
goods, like pipes for oil and gas industry.
For the years 2012-2014, construction of a Steckel plate mill is planned to ensure
that a new advanced plate rolling department would produce world-class quality
products for shipbuilding, bridge construction, pipe-making and other industries
with an output of one million tons per year.
One of main constraints for perspective development of metallurgical production
in Khabarovsky Krai is a lack of and high price for scrap metal.
In view of the upcoming development of iron ore deposits in the south of the
Russian Far East (Kimkanskoe, Sutarskoe, and Garinskoe deposits), it is advisable
to redirect the Komsomolsk-on-Amur metallurgical production to high-quality
iron-ore pellets, the raw stock being supplied from the ore-dressing plants of those
deposits. This will result in further growth of the inter-regional cooperation in the
south of the Russian Far East and introduction of rational mineral processing
principles.
An important stage of metallurgical system innovation development is presented
by construction of a primary aluminum plant. The first phase of the project is
planned to be put into operation in the year 2016. The main share of the plant’s
produce is to be exported via Vanino and Sovetskaya Gavan ports.
These investment projects are inter-regional in nature and of national importance
as far as the types of products and the production output are concerned.
Timber Industry
Khabarovsky Krai is one of Russia’s regions most abundant in timber resources.
The Krai occupies 18.6% of the total wooded area in the Russian Federation and
accounts for 25.3% of the Russian Far East’s timber supply.
The following factors precondition the developmental opportunities of the Krai’s
timber industry:
- The majority of the Krai’s accessible forestland has already been developed,
and, therefore, lumbering will unavoidably shift to less developed northern woods
with inferior size and quality properties;
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- Scantiness of the Krai’s timber market outlets, lack of required capacities limit
complete and comprehensive processing of raw timber;
- Stability (or instability) of medium-term demand for timber on the part of the
North-Eastern Asian countries and, first of all, the PRC;
- forced rise in import duties for rough timber.
The innovation scenario provides that the Krai’s timber industry as a line of the
Krai’s economic specialization would develop towards more and more
comprehensive processing of timber with due consideration for social, economic
and ecological consequences thereof.
The main structural solutions of the innovation scenario involve development of
woodworking industry, mobilization of investments, improvement of woodland
utilization, cut down the rate of forest fires, improvement of forest management,
forest preservation and reforestation.
The basis for proactive implementation of the innovation scenario is being
established through promotion of investment projects in the field of
woodworking. For the most part, these projects are aimed at machine-worked
production. The need for investments in such production is considerably smaller
and payback period is shorter than in the projects oriented to comprehensive
timber processing.
It is comprehensive timber processing and processing of low-grade, small-size
and inferior-quality and waste timber that is the condition and the foundation of
complex use of timber and innovative development of forest industry inside the
Krai. Arrangements for processing of the said kinds of resources in the region are
already being made.
Organization of timber board production is currently under way. Rimbunan Hijau
MDF Limited in Khor community constructs a fiberboard plant project for
making MDF and THDF boards with capacity of 300,000 cubic meters per year.
Arkaim Joint Venture, LLC, has already performed the major body of work to
construct a large woodworking plant for making wood particle boards and lumber
in Oktyabrsky community, Vanino District. In order to further develop this sector,
plywood production facilities are planned to be built on the initiative of
DalEvroLes, LLC; oriented strand board (OSB) production is currently under
consideration.
Large-scale projects aimed at comprehensive utilization of timber, like a cellulose
production project in Amursk and construction of the Russian Far East’s center
for complex timber processing are undertaken by Amurskaya Timber Company,
LLC (under Dallesprom, OJSC).
51
The feasibility of the Far-Eastern center for deep timber processing project is
currently being considered and potential investors are being examined. Within the
framework of implementing the project, woodworking facilities are planned to be
constructed with an annual capacity of 300,000 cubic meters of rotary-cut veneer,
230,000 cubic meters of lumber, and 300,000 cubic meters of fiberboard in
Amursk, and woodworking facilities with an annual capacity of 750,000 cubic
meters in Vanino. In the context of implementing the cellulose production project
in Amursk, a plant for production of bleached softwood sulphate cellulose with a
capacity of 500,000 tons per year is planned to be built. This produce is in great
demand on foreign markers and its competitive strength will be increased by
applying innovative technologies to ensure high-quality thereof, while
competitive prices will be achieved through the proximity to raw material supply
area and foreign consumers.
A number of projects are under implementation by the Krai’s enterprises aimed at
construction of modern facilities for production of high-quality lumber, rotary-cut
veneer, and wooden house assembly kits.
About twenty large and medium-scale timber processing enterprises are planned
to be put into operation in Khabarovsky Krai. Currently, eleven projects for
construction of new or renovation of old facilities, which are to be commissioned
in or before the year 2015, are under design or construction. The investment
volume of these projects makes 60 billion rubles. The share of processed timber in
the total round timber output will considerably exceed the 30% figure of 2007 to
make over 90% by the year 2015. An increase in the timber processing volume in
2025 as compared to 2007 will make about 7 million cubic meters per year to
amount to 9.3 million cubic meters and about 5,000 new jobs.
Woodworking projects to be implemented are aimed at production of export
produce. North-Eastern Asian countries like Japan, China, and the Republic of
Korea are the main consumers of these products.
Implementation of the timber processing projects will considerably raise the
efficiency of the Krai’s timber resource utilization.
Additional structural tasks under the innovation scenario essential for developing
the Krai’s timber sector are as follows:
- Build arterial forest roads to allocated timber supply areas of large investment
projects in the framework of a unified transport system for developing of the
regional territories on state co-financing terms. Development of transport
infrastructure is the required tool to bring investments into timber industry and a
condition to ensure rational forest management and fire safety;
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- Develop low-rise wooden-house construction within the region, which is viewed
as one of the ways to settle people in the region and promote the domestic demand
for timber products.
Development of the Krai’s machine-building system provides for implementation
of large-scale investment projects for high-tech products in aircraft construction
and shipbuilding and new competitive defense, civil and dual purpose products.
The potential for Komsomolsk-on-Amur Gagarin Aircraft Production
Association (KNAAPO) development lies in manufacture of defense-purpose
products. A modified export version of SU-35 aircraft is currently under
development, the 5th generation fighter is undergoing product design and
production engineering stage of development. This enterprise could become the
leading producer of new aviation technology.
The civil line of production at Komsomolsk-on-Amur Gagarin Aircraft
Production Association (KNAAPO) entails restructurization of a part of its
capacities for manufacturing of Sukhoi Superjet-100, a breakthrough product for
the regional market. It is planned to construct around 100 aircrafts for both
domestic and foreign markets up to the year 2011 and reach an annual output of
60 aircrafts thereafter.
It is necessary to modernize the existing shipbuilding facilities of Amursk
Shipbuilding Yard, OJSC, to build large-tonnage vessels and vessels for the
fishing fleet of the Russian Federation. The Krai’s geographical location enables
the Yard to produce equipment for shelf development, including construction of
oil and gas platforms and oil tankers.
Specialization in construction of hovercrafts and high-speed watercrafts will
provide for the competitive strength of Khabarovsk Shipbuilding Yard’s products
on both domestic and foreign markets.
The range of goods produced will steadily widen, the quality of products will
continue to improve and output goods will be upgraded in order to raise the
competitiveness of such enterprises as Amursky Cable Plant, Komsomolsk-onAmur Materials-Handling Equipment Plant, and Dalenergomash.
Implementation of projects and programs for machine-building industry
development will provide for an 18 billion ruble-increase of added value by the
year 2025, and a 5,000-people increase in the number of the Krai’s employees.
Long-term development of the Krai’s oil refining industry is based on the
implementation of technical development and comprehensive modernization
programs for Komsomolsk and Khabarovsk oil refineries.
53
After overall renovation of Rosneft-Komsomolsk Oil Refinery, LLC, crude oil
output will make 8 million tons per year. The company will grow into an
improved, technologically-balanced, mobile and diversified business system that
would refine over 90% of incoming crude oil and producing world-class
petroleum derivatives. The range of products will be expanded through non-fuel
petroleum derivatives, such as sulfur, petroleum coke, motor oils and paving
bitumen. A combined gas and petrochemical production system is planned for
construction with an initial annual output of 1 million tons of highly marketable
products like polypropylene, polyethylene and benzene.
In increase in the processing capacities of Komsomolsk Oil Refinery will provide
for improved logistics of raw material and final product supplies. Construction of
a 200-km long product pipeline from Komsomolsk Oil Refinery to a deep-sea
nonfreezing port of De Kastri, with a capacity of 5 to 6 million tons of light oil
per year is projected. Implementation of this project will replace rail
transportation to Vanino and Nakhodka ports for export of the products to the
Pacific Rim.
Implementation of Khabarovsk Oil Refinery modernization project will allow for
a higher processing degree of crude oil refining up to 90%, reduction in naphtha
output through naphta processing as a part of high-octane gasoline production,
and world-class diesel fuel and aviation kerosene production. The long-term
prospects for the crude oil refining plant, given that technical development and
renovation programs are implemented, will make 4.5 million tons. In addition to
hydro-cracking facilities, the said capacity of the oil refinery will provide for a
manufacturing opportunity to maneuver with volume and range of petroleum
products depending on the market conditions, including maintaining the
production of fuel oil for the internal market.
The expected increase in the added value resulting from the modernization of the
oil refining system and organization of chemical production capacities inside the
Krai will make about 14.2 billion rubles.
Electrical Power Engineering Development
Implementation of investment projects for development of transport and handling
systems, seaport and industrial infrastructure to meet the ever growing demand for
electric power in Vanino and Sovetskaya Gavan power districts will require
construction of a 120-MW thermal power plant in Sovetskaya Gavan.
A second circuit of 400-km 220-kilovolt aerial power transmission line from
Komsomolsk-on-Amur to Sovetskaya Gavan is planned for construction in the
years 2009-2013.
54
The Far-Eastern Power Generating Company, OJSC, developed a program for
inputs/outputs of generating facilities of Khabarovsk power system for up to the
year 2025. In compliance with the program, high-efficiency generating facilities
are to be put into operation in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Amursk, and Khabarovsk.
Electrical power supply to China can become a considerable boost to the Krai’s
industrial development. Within the framework of the project of large-scale
exportation of electrical power to China, Vostochnaya Energeticheskaya
Kompaniya, OJSC, is drafting a project to build a large 2400-MW thermal power
station with an annual electric output of 14 billion kilowatt-hours in
Verkhnebureinsky District of Khabarovsky Krai at the site of Urgal coal deposit.
A 450-MW steam unit is also planned to be built in the City of Khabarovsk.
The needs of large-scale export of electrical power to China and construction of a
high-capacity Urgal thermal power plant will ensure additional demand for Urgal
coal in the amount of up to 10 million tons per year.
Oil and Gas Pipeline Systems
Construction of the Eastern Siberia - the Pacific Ocean pipeline system offers an
opportunity to improve the raw material supply to the Krai’s oil refineries.
Implementation of the second stage of the Eastern Siberia - the Pacific Ocean
pipeline system construction along with construction of the outlet pipelines to
supply the Krai’s oil refineries with crude oil will allow to set up the Far-Eastern
pipeline system consisting of Sakhalin–Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Eastern Siberia the Pacific Ocean – Komsomolsk Oil Refinery, and Eastern Siberia - the Pacific
Ocean – Khabarovsk Oil Refinery pipelines.
Khabarovsky Krai gasification is an important element of the Krai’s social and
economic development and one of the strategic priorities aimed at the Krai’s
enhanced power safety, diversification of fuel supply, higher efficiency and
reliability of power supply and provision for organization of natural gas
processing capacities.
Further development of trunk-line and distribution-line gas transport
infrastructure in Khabarovsky Krai is aimed at provision of the existing basic
power stations of Khabarovsk power system, public utilities, industrial enterprises,
budget-financed facilities and housing units with natural gas.
55
Khabarovsky Krai is one of the most promising regional gas markets in the
Russian Far East. Taking into account the importance of gasification of the FarEastern territories, given the development of available resources of Sakhalin shelf
oil and gas fields, a program has been approved to provide for a unified system of
gas production, transportation and supply within the Eastern Siberia and the Far East
of Russia with due consideration for the eventual opportunity of exporting gas to
China and other Pacific Rim markets. The responsibility for implementation of the
program was vested in OAO Gazprom by the Russian Federation Government.
Under the Protocol Decision of the Russian Federation Government dated
September 1, 2008, Gazprom shall complete the project design stage and start the
construction of over 2,000-km long Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok gastransport system, including a nearly 1000-km long line in the territory of
Khabarovsky Krai in 2009. Implementation of the project ensures gasification of
the southern areas of Khabarovsky Krai.
Within the framework of the unified system of gas production, transportation and
supply within the Eastern Siberia and the Far East and in view of the possibility to
export gas to the Chinese and Pacific Rim markets, Gazprom is planning to
construct the Yakutia-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok gas pipeline to join the SakhalinKhabarovsk-Vladivostok gas-transport system near the City of Khabarovsk.
Based on the natural gas resources, gas-chemical facilities are planned to be
constructed.
Transport
The Krai’s transport sector constitutes one of the key transport centers of the
FEFD. The scenario provides for a considerable development of transit functions
that are inherent in the Krai’s central location in the Russian Far East not only on
a regional, but also on a national and international scale.
The innovation scenario calls for a comprehensive and integrated development of
all modes of transport and construction of highways.
The Krai’s perspective economic structure provides for a much higher
significance of De-Kastri-Vanino-Sovetskaya Gavan water area. Commercial
interest of transnational corporations and container shippers in trans-shipment of
crude oil, petroleum products, coal, and iron-ore concentrates are focused therein.
56
In June 2008, a federal competition for selection of applications for special
economic port zones (hereinafter referred to as SEPZ) applications was held to
recognize Khabarovsky Krai as the winner (Sovetskaya Gavan SEPZ project).
The concept for a SEPZ on the basis of Sovetskaya Gavan seaport facilities
provides for a multipurpose port, ship-repair and ship-building center, container
terminals, and processing of aquatic bioresources.
The De-Kastri-Vanino-Sovetskaya Gavan water area zone is to be dynamically
transformed into a large-scale port and transit zone with freight turnover
substantially exceeding the current turnover of Primorsky Krai’s ports
(Vostochny, Nakhodka, and Vladivostok).
Implementation of the innovation scenario will result in the annual freight
handling volume in the Krai’s ports exceeding 140 million tons freight per year by
2025, with Vanino and Sovetskaya Gavan ports accounting for over 120 million
tons.
The total Krai’s freight turnover in 2025 could presumably reach around 193
billion ton-kilometers. Versus the year 2007, the increase in the turnover will
make over 34% in 2010, 2.3 times – in 2015, 2.8 times in 2020 году, and 3.1
times in 2025.
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The projected passenger traffic turnover is to make 113% in 2010, 136.8% – in
2015, 148% – in 2020, and about 162% – in 2025 as compared to the year 2007
and is expected to amount to 10.6 billion passenger-kilometers.
Railway transport development provides for growth of international transit across
the Krai’s territory, including the highly-profitable container shipments and
growth of export, import, and internal freight flows. The capacities of the TransSiberian Railroad and the Baikal-Amur Mainline are to increase due to the
completion of the second stage of the Amur Bridge construction near the City of
Khabarovsk, renewal of the subfluvial Amur tunnel, construction of the new
Kuznetsovsky tunnel, and construction of the second track on several sections of
the mainline along the Northern Latitude Route followed by electrification thereof
and construction of railroad stations.
Development of the basic road network implies improved transport accessibility
to the northern areas of Khabarovsky Krai (Komsomolsk-on-Amur–Berezovy–
Amgun–Mogdy–Chegdomyn, Ayan–Nelkan–Yugorenok); provision of the Krai’s
developing seaports with access to the Russian Federation road network
(Khabarovsk–Lidoga–Vanino with an access road to Komsomolsk-on-Amur,
Selikhino–Gurskoe–Kenada–Vanino, Selikhino–Nikolaevsk-On-Amur); increased
total throughput of the road network due to a safe and high-quality highway link
to other regions of Russia (Chita–Khabarovsk, Khabarovsk–Vladivostok,
Khabarovsk–Nakhodka) as well as goods distribution logistic centers to be
organized.
Air transport development will be aimed at expansion of transfer traffic through
organization of an air transport center (a hub of international importance) on the
basis of Khabarovsk airport (New), including expansion of feeder traffic due to
modernization of the airport network for local airlines.
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The hub would provide for coordination and cooperation of all modes of
transportation (air, railroad, automobile, and water transport) and for broader
flight geography and larger transit air shipment volume.
By the year 2026, the freight traffic through Khabarovsk airport is projected to
increase seven-fold to make 78,300 tons per year, while the passenger traffic is
projected to increase five-fold to make 4.9 million passengers per year.
Within the context of chosen scenario conditions and objective factorial and
demand restrictions, the Krai’s agriculture and food industry exhibit stable
positive production dynamics and higher efficiency. However, these fields do not
exert a considerable influence on the Krai’s overall economic development.
Based on the available resources and the Krai’s production potential, the volume
of the Krai’s fish catch can be increased considerably due to fishing on the open
seas and within the economic areas of other states, development of the coastal
zone and an increase in the deep-processed foodstuff production.
However, despite the adequate supply of aquatic bioresources, reproduction of the
most profitable products fished for is under threat. For instance, the sturgeon
species are endangered.
In an effort to maintain the valuable fishery products, artificial reproduction is
provided for. A number of fish farms is planned to be built on Khabarovsky Krai
rivers with an aggregate capacity of 150 million baby fishes of siberian salmon, 2
million yearlings of red and silver salmon, 4 million baby fishes of sturgeon, and
2 million baby fishes of kaluga (Suberian sturgeon).
Tourism, which produces a positive effect on the related sectors, is one of the
Krai’s promising and dynamically growing sectors of economy.
59
The Krai’s convenient geographical location and geopolitical position, unique
ethnographic, natural and tourism potentialities, including the Amur River, are the
main conditions for developing tourism in Khabarovsky Krai.
Development of the Krai’s tourism implies a state-of-the-art tourism
infrastructure, new competitive travel products, and penetration to the travel
markets of the North- and South-Eastern Asia and requires implementation of
promising projects, such as the Amur River Tourism and Recreation Area, crossborder tourist routes, the Eastern Ring of Russia project to be shared by other
Russian Far East’s constituent entities, and organization of recreation and health
centers on the basis of thermal mineral springs and therapeutic muds available in
the region.
Innovation technologies will allow to qualitatively improve development of the
would-be and existing tourism infrastructure and produce a favorable effect on
preservation of the environment and development of the Kay’s social domain,
including new jobs, support of the indigenous peoples, and stronger health and
rehabilitation of the Krai’s residents.
6.2.6. Spatial Structure of Development
A spatial skeleton of Khabarovsky Krai’s development in the scenario is
presented by thee specific zones of industrial development.
These are the main spatial-planning and infrastructural entities, such as closelyintegrated Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk-on-Amur territorial-production systems,
possessing built-in mechanisms of endogenous agglomeration growth, De-KastriVanino-Sovetskaya Gavan port-and-terminal belt, and De-Kastri transport and
industrial center with the port, that provide for the development in the
circumstances of scantiness of resources and restrained demographic dynamics.
The Komsomolsk territorial-production system (hereinafter referred as TPS) is the
largest industrial center consisting of commercial production (aircraft
construction, ship-building, oil refining, metallurgical industry, non-ferrous metal
ore mining, ammunition production, lumbering and timber processing) located in
Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Amursk, Solnechny and adjacent districts.
The Komsomolsk TPS is one of the main transport centers. Maintaining and
expanding the defense machine-building capacities, ensuring provision with
government and export contracts, and manufacturing for civil needs are of prime
significance for the Komsomolsk TPS’s economy.
60
Verkhnebureinsky industrial center, where coal mining with coal cleaning are
planned to be expanded considerably and construction of a 2400-megawatt
thermal power plant using local coal fields is anticipated, is closely associated
with the Komsomolsk TPS.
The master plan for allocation of the Russian Federation power engineering
enterprises up to the year 2020 as approved by the Russian Federation
Government provides for construction of Urgal thermal power plant.
Implementation of this project will become an impetus for establishing a power
cluster, for development of not only the power industry but also of adjacent
sectors of regional economy, thus providing incentives for the Krai’s economic
growth and making a noticeable contribution to the gross regional product.
In order to maintain and improve the internal and external market positions for
Urgal coal mining, technical and economic problems are being considered in
order to increase the volume of coal output and to improve product quality with
construction of a coal cleaning plant. In the long-range perspective, coal output is
planned to increase to 10 million tons.
Khabarovsk territorial-production system is planned to be developed as a single
transport, logistics, industrial and business center with developed service
infrastructure, where educational services, tourism, and commercial scientific
research come to the fore. An air transport hub with world-class passenger and
cargo terminals is planned to be organized on the basis of Khabarovsk
International Airport (New) facilities.
A work to establish a Khabarovsk-Fuyuan freight-passenger automobile entry/exit
station on the Bolshoy Ussuriisky Island is under way. It will provide for an
increase in the export and import freight traffic on the basis of the existing Krai’s
transport infrastructure. This project provides for construction of a highway
bridge with an extensive network of access roads, trade areas and recreation and
entertainment zones, and development of agricultural industry and summercottage housing construction.
A railway junction will continue to be renovated and developed along with the
completion of the second stage of Amur Bridge construction near the City of
Khabarovsk. A freight distributing logistics center is planned to be organized to
considerably raise the freighting efficiency and optimize the use of transport
facilities and infrastructures.
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One of the Krai’s large-scale transport-and-industrial systems will be created on
the basis of Vanino-Sovetskaya Gavan transport-and-industrial hub along with the
creation of Sovetskaya Gavan special economic port zone to develop the port
facilities and near-port infrastructure, expand the railway infrastructure and
highways, establish commercial production, expand the power, utility and social
infrastructures, organize the Far-Eastern shipyard and shipbuilding center, and
develop timber, fish and seafood processing.
Advance development of the Northern Latitude Route providing for the required
freight and carrying capacity by means of Kuznetsovsky tunnel construction,
construction of the second railroad track, and reconstruction of Baikal-Amur
Mainline stations and passing tracks is the main determining factor for ensuring
transport system operation.
Currently, development of De-Kastri port facilities is a promising undertaking.
Within the framework of Sakhalin-1 project, the Exxon Neftegas Limited built
and put into operation an oil terminal in De-Kastri port with production capacity
of 12 million tons oil per year. Rosneft Company owns an anchored oil-loading
terminal with capacity of 2 million tons per year.
In terms of long-term outlook, Rosneft Company is working out the following
issues:
- construction of an oil terminal in De-Kastri port with capacity of up to 6 million
tons per year;
- construction of a product pipeline from Komsomolsk Oil Refinery to De-Kastri
port with capacity of up to 5-6 million tons of oil products per year for year-round
shipment of exported oil products.
The focal industrial development centers in addition to the industrial development
zones are also a part of the Krai’s manufacturing industry. They include works for
comprehensive timber processing in Khor village of Lazo District, development
of new mineral deposits in Ayano-Maisky, Tuguro-Chumikansky and Okhotsk
districts.
The long-term prospects provide for development of several industrial clusters in
the Krai’s territory.
62
A timber-industry cluster will cover the area of Khabarovsky Krai except for
Okhotsky and Ayano-Maisky administrative districts. The heart of the cluster is
presented by the pulp and paper industry, utilizing low-grade timber, and a
number of timber processing industries, providing for the systematic and
henceforth wasteless use of timber. This will initiate an increase in the range of
manufactured products, growth of cooperative deliveries and timber freight
carrying systems, which strengthens the interdependency of timber industry
enterprises, promotes development and design of new timber products and several
new kinds of technologies and equipment.
Research into silviculture and forest management will be expanded, and
reforestation and forest fire-fighting systems will strengthen and develop. There is
a considerable potential for developing a system of personnel training for the
timber industry.
Favorable conditions for a fish-industry cluster exist in Khabarovsky Krai.
Fishing and fish processing capacities, developing fish-farming facilities and
mariculture, research and personnel support and shipbuilding and ship repair
capacities make up the cluster’s basis.
A spaceport (cosmodrome) construction project in Amurskaya Oblast offers
conditions for an aerospace cluster in the Russian Far-East.
Khabarovsky Krai enjoys a considerable production, research and personnel
potential to share in spaceport infrastructure construction work. There are hightech production enterprises and organizations within the Krai, and they have a
considerable experience in construction of sophisticated projects and structures.
The cluster’s structure within the Krai will be based on potentialities of
manufacturing airspace-purpose products available, first of all, at the
Komsomolsk-on-Amur Gagarin Aircraft Production Association (KNAAPO),
Komsomolsk-on-Amur Branch of Sukhoi Civil Aircrafts Company (Close Joint
Stock Company), of training of the required personnel at the Komsomolsk-onAmur State University of Technology.
In order to maintain a sustainable balance between economic development and the
state of environment, to create comfortable residence conditions for the Krai’s
population, a set of measures directed at improvement of the Krai’s environment
and provision of environmental safety will be realized.
In order to reduce the threat to environment, the designing and construction of
inter-municipal landfill for non-utilizable manufacturing waste in Amursk,
сonstruction of solid waste landfills in the City of Khabarovsk, construction and
renovation of treatment facilities for water supply and sewerage in the Krai’s
communities.
63
In order to improve the state of environment and to ensure personal and social
safety of the Krai’s residents, monitoring of transboundary environmental impact
should be improved so as to:
- develop Russian-Chinese transboundary monitoring of water, bed silts and fish
with a view to to expand the range of parameters analyzed;
- set up field stations for monthly monitoring in Amurzet (north of the Sungari’s
mouth) and in Nizhneleninskoe (south of the Sungari’s mouth);
- set up a permanent monitoring station near the state border on the Bolshoy
Ussuriisky Island.
7. Strategy’s Macroeconomic Indicators
Khabarovsky Krai, as any other regional entity, is an open social and economic
system. Prospective development of the Krai’s economy largely depends on the
external factors and conditions beyond the control of the Krai’s government.
Changing circumstance of the world economy and changes in the national
economy produce an effect on the regional economy. The Russian Far East and
Khabarovsky Krai, in particular, in its geographical location and transportation
status is adjacent to one of the world’s most rapidly developing economies.
Considering the traditional openness of the Krai’s economy, Khabarovsky Krai
development is only possible subject to cooperation with the Pacific Rim
countries, and especially with the North-Eastern Asian states. Besides, regional
development also depends on the federal decisions and on the strategy of
development approved by the federal government. Limitations to the Russian
Federation economic growth, due to the gradual exhaustion of raw material and
export sources, increase in the significance of human assets, and demographic
issues, which have to be taken into account.
The Strategy for social and economic development of Khabarovsky Krai up to the
year 2025 has been developed in two scenarios – the inertial and the innovative.
The inertial scenario presents an answer to the question about the future of the
Krai’s economy should the external conditions, economic structure and economic
policy remain unchanged.
The inertial scenario of Khabarovsky Krai development rests on an assumption of
correspondence of economic and institutional conditions up to the year 2025 to
the level of 2000-2007. Under this scenario, the underlying structure of the gross
regional product is the one prevalent in 2006, since it is assumed that during the
scenario implementation this structure will not cardinally change, even in such a
long-term perspective.
64
In 2006, the goods manufacturing industries accounted for about 42% of
Khabarovsky Krai’s gross regional product, while service industries – for 58% (in
the Russian Federation, these indices made 45.6% and 54.4%, respectively). At
the same time, starting with the year 2000, a tendency for a decrease in the share
of goods manufacturing industries was observed, including industrial production
decrease, and an increase in the share of service industries. This tendency is
inherent in Russia’s economy in general; however, the share of the goods
manufacturing industries in the GDP of the Russian Federation is greater than that
of Khabarovsky Krai, and, what’s essential, the share of industrial production in
Russian Federation’s GDP is not decreasing. In the event these tendencies are
maintained and, given the existing infrastructure and transport projects, the state
of affairs in Khabarovsky Krai will presumably appear as follows: the share of
service industries will increase, owing but not limited to an increase in the
transport share, while the share of industrial production, including the share of
manufacturing industries, will decrease.
Implementation of the innovative scenario of Khabarovsky Krai’s development is
possible on condition that the national economy also follows the innovative
scenario of development, or, at least, some intermediate scenario tending towards
an innovative breakthrough. The innovative scenario of development is based, on
the one hand, on maintaining the favorable trends of development existent by the
year 2007, and resulting from a favorable foreign economic state of affairs and
internal political stability. On the other hand, the Krai’s prospective development
involves realization of all potentials for developing the sectors of Khabarovsky
Krai’ economy with due consideration for the internal and external demand and
investment opportunities. The Krai’s perspective development is only possible
providing that the economies of all adjacent regions of the Russian Far East and
Russia in general do develop—which means that a clear and thought-out federal
and regional policy allowing for the maximal use of all economic opportunities
and advantageous economic position and geographical location of the region is
required.
Implementation of the innovative scenario involves a set of priority lines, which
were included into the forecast and were reflected in the macroeconomic indices.
In the first place, the transit functions of the region are to be developed at an
accelerated rate, where transport corridors and other infrastructure facilities have to
be constructed for exploiting the advantageous transport and geographical location of
the region.
65
In the second place, the Krai’s industrial system is to be expanded since it serves
as a foundation for the entire regional development. The Krai’s industrial
production includes raw material-producing and manufacturing sectors. In the
future, exploitation of the natural resources needs to be made more efficient, the
share of manufacturing industries needs to be increased, and the competitive
strength of local produce needs to be enhanced. There are aircraft and
shipbuilding enterprises, oil refineries, and metallurgical companies inside the
Krai that need modernization and where the share of finished products in the
production output is to be increased considerably.
In the third place, the Krai’s research and educational system is to grow to ensure
the innovative nature of sectoral economic development and to provide for the
technical and technological re-equipment of production. Production of new and
competitive types of goods, creation of competitive industries, personnel training
and development of mechanisms for applying innovations to production are all
among the activities planned.
Social infrastructure development provides for maintaining the size of the
population within the region, for securing the existing residents and for attraction
of new ones. Therefore, the Krai’s perspective development also involves an
innovative development of education, public health, etc.
The last important factor of the Krai’s development consists in external demand.
The demand for the Krai’s produce is composed of three parts, the internal
regional market demand, the demand on the interregional market within Russia,
and the demand on the foreign market. Khabarovsky Krai’s internal market is
incapable of ensuring the necessary demand for the majority of industrial goods
and products of the service industries. Therefore, the innovative development of
the Krai’s economy is only possible in the presence of competitive products on
the domestic market and in the North-Eastern Asian and Pacific Rim foreign
markets. Currently, the Krai’s export structure is dominated by raw materials or
the goods of primary processing, which are competitive on the foreign market.
Comprehensively processed goods (timber-processing, oil-refining, ferrous
metallurgy and machine-building industries) require a market both inside and
outside the country.
In the long-term perspective, should the innovative scenario be realized, the ratio
of goods and services producing industries, the share of the industry in the gross
regional product, and the structure of Khabarovsky Krai’s economy in general
will not undergo cardinal changes. Service-providing industries will play the main
role in shaping of the gross regional product, and the share of goods-producing
industries, specifically industrial production, will not decrease.
66
Under the innovative scenario, the industrial production remains the basis for
development of the Krai’s economy. Among the measures proposed are industrial
restructurizaton and development of high-technology and medium-technology
production capacities to manufacture highly processed products. These changes
are to involve timber processing, metallurgical industry, civil and defense
machine-building, and petroleum refining. Petrochemical and gasochemical
industries need to be developed in the Krai, which will allow for an annual 106.5percent rate of industrial increment up to the year 2015, while the total growth of
industrial output in 2025 will presumably increase 3.9-fold as compared to 2007.
In the event of steady development of the Krai’s industry, additional growth of
transport, trade, and communication services is expected. High rates of industrial
growth and production infrastructure expansion will entail the social infrastructure
development, which, on the whole, will ensure extra growth rates of the gross
regional product.
Basic indices of Khabarovsky Krai’s sectoral development as per two scenarios
are shown in Table 3.
Table 3
(per cent in comparable prices)
Index
Average
Average
Average
Annual
Growth
Annual Growth Annual Growth
Rate
during
Rate 2008Rate during
2015
2016-2025
2008-2025
2025
versus
2007
Inertial Scenario
Gross regional
product
Industry
Agricultural
produce
Retail trade
turnover
Transport freight
turnover
Communication
services
103.0
104.2
103.6
190.0
101.6
100.8
104.2
100.6
103.0
100.7
170.5
113.2
105.1
104.2
104.6
225.0
106.2
102.2
105.0
239.4
110.0
105.6
107.5
369.6
Innovative Scenario
Gross regional
product
Industry
Agricultural
produce
Retail trade
turnover
Transport freight
105.2
109.0
107.3
355.0
106.5
103.0
109.1
101.7
107.9
102.3
391.0
149.5
106.3
106.7
106.5
311.8
111.2
102.9
106.5
309.4
67
Index
turnover
Communication
services
Average
Average
Average
Annual Growth Annual Growth Annual Growth
Rate during
Rate 2008Rate during
2015
2016-2025
2008-2025
112.6
108.4
110.2
2025
versus
2007
577.3
The both scenarios of development predict that the Khabarovsky Krai’s gross
regional product will grow more intensively after the year 2015. The inertial
scenario assumes the average annual rate of growth for 2008-2015 to make
103.0%, in 2016-2025 – 104.2% with the total GRP growth for the specified
period making 190%. Under the innovative scenario, the total GRP growth will
increase 3.6-fold, while the period-related average annual rates of growth are
assumed to make 105.2% in 2008-2015 and 109% in 2016-2025. The gross
regional product per capita under the inertial scenario will grow at the same rate
as the gross regional product (197.3%). Under the innovative scenario, the growth
of the gross regional product per capita will be slightly slower due to an increase
in the size of population and will make 3.3 times.
68
This forecast was made with due consideration for the implementation of
investment projects and proposals in Khabarovsky Krai. In 2007, the ratio of fixed
capital investments to gross regional product made 23.4%. As per the inertial
scenario of development, the ratio of investments to gross regional product in 2020
will make 29.2%, as per the innovative scenario – 33.3%. In 2021-2025, the capital
intensity of the gross regional product will grow slower. As per the inertial
scenario, in 2025 the intensity will make 31.7% and as per the innovative scenario
– 35.4%. An increase in the capital intensity is an additional source of economic
growth; however, when the matter is that Khabarovsky Krai’s economy is ‘widely
open’ where the structures of the gross regional product produced and used do not
match, then, consequently, the reduction in the GRP capital intensity could mean a
decrease in foreign investment. At the same time, the share of the savings invested
can remain unchanged or even increase.
Basic Macroeconomic Indices of Khabarovsky Krai Economic Development
Table 4
(in 2007 prices)
Index
Year
2007
Year
2015
Year
2020
Year
2025
Average annual rates
for the period
(percent)
2008- 2016- 20082015 2025 2025
2025
versus
2007
(percent)
Inertial Scenario
Gross Regional
Product (billion
rubles)
Average Annual
Population
(thousand people)
Gross Regional
Product per capita
(thousand rubles)
Fixed capital
investment
(million rubles)
Export (million
USD)
Import (million
USD)
234.4
296.9 364.6
445.4
103.0
104.2
103.6
190.0
1378
1362
1354
99.8
99.7
99.75
96.4
166.9
215.5 278.3
329.3
103.3
104.4 103.85
197.3
54.8
80.4 106.6
141.3
104.9
105.8
105.4
257.2
1404.6
4017.4*
4575
6860
9420
101.7
107.5
104.9
234.5
1126
1550
2000
2000
104.1
102.6
103.3
177.6
Innovative scenario
Gross Regional
Product (billion
rubles)
Average Annual
Population
(thousand people)
Gross Regional
234.4
1404.6
166.9
351.6 541.0
832.2
105.2
109.0
107.3
355.0
1398
1421
1500
99.95
100.7 100.35
106.8
251.5 380.7
554.8
105.3
108.2
332.4
106.9
69
Index
Product per capita
(thousand rubles)
Fixed capital
investment
(million rubles)
Export (million
USD)
Import (million
USD)
Year
2007
54.8
Year
2015
Year
2020
109.3 180.0
Year
2025
295.0
Average annual rates
for the period
(percent)
2008- 2016- 20082015 2025 2025
2025
versus
2007
(percent)
109.0
110.5
109.8
537.5
4017.4*
5730
9240 13980 104.6
109.3
107.2
348.0
1126
1750
2200
103.7
104.6
222.0
2500
105.7
* as per assessment of the Krai’s Ministry for Economic Development and Foreign Relations.
The scenarios differ not only in capital use efficiency, but also in labor
productivity (where the measure of productivity is the ratio of the gross regional
product to the number of the Krai’s employees in comparable prices).
An increase in labor productivity is assumed in the both scenarios. However, the
inertial scenario proceeds from the average annual labor productivity increase of
103.4% to grow by 82.3% in 2025 versus 2007. As per the innovative scenario,
the annual rate of labor productivity increase is to make 106.3% with the 2025’
labor productivity increasing 3-fold as compared to 2007, which is 1.6 times more
than the rate of growth as per the inertial scenario.
70
As regards export and import, the inertial scenario provides for a 2.3-fold increase
in the exports in 2025 versus 2007, while imports will presumably increase by
77.6%. The innovative scenario forecasts a higher rate of export and import
growth, where the predicted increase in export in 2025 versus 2007 makes 3.5
times, and an increase in import makes 2.2 times. Both scenarios proceed from an
increased share of nonferrous metallurgy and engineering products in export
structure. The innovative scenario stakes on export of petroleum products, oiland-gas chemistry products, timber processing products, and engineering industry
products (including air and water crafts), and electric power.
8. Strategy Implementation Mechanism
The regional social and economic policy is the main tool to achieve the Strategy’s
economic goals. The indices of social and human development depend on the
degree to which the economic goals provided by the Strategy are attained. The
Krai’s economic openness, mentioned above, involves synchronization of
strategic goals, on the one hand, and synchronization of the Krai’s activities and
incentives with the national institutional environment and regional economic
policy, on the other hand.
Key efforts aimed at the Strategy’s implementation are seen follows:
1. Develop the Krai’s laws and regulations directed at raising the efficiency of
social and economic policy implementation.
2. Improve public administration efficiency, provide assistance to local
administration development, and promote interaction between the civil society
and the state authorities:
- improve the structure of state authorities and local government;
- introduce systems to assess state authorities effectiveness based on performance
thereof;
- integrate state information systems and resources;
- ensure an effective inter-departmental information exchange, including on-line
circulation of documents;
- improve the system of public services to organizations and individuals, increase
the quality and quantity of public services provided on-line;
- raise efficiency of state authorities in rendering services to the people.
3. Raise efficiency of budgetary expenditures:
- improve a system of budgetary planning, including medium-term and long-term
planning;
- raise efficiency of state contract placement by the Krai, introduce an on-line
bidding system;
- raise efficiency of performance of state tasks given by the Krai;
71
- improve the system to develop, approve and assess the Krai’s task program
implementation performance.
4. To create a favorable business environment for development of economic and
investment activity:
- develop an infrastructure and to remove infrastructural limitations for business
and social development;
- promote development of market institutions (banking and insurance sectors,
leasing mechanisms, stock market, exchange business, etc);
- make efforts to provide for sound investment environment;
- assist in creation and development of innovation-friendly systems;
- promote two-way communication between the authorities and the business,
state-private partnership, remove the barriers for business development, and raise
the social responsibility of the business community;
- enhance the modes and methods to support medium- and small-scale business;
- develop a system of supplying the economy with qualified personnel;
- set up and develop a congress-exhibition infrastructure.
5. Develop and efficiently implement the Krai’s task programs, take part in and to
promote programs of economic activity development.
6. Realize the most promising investment projects and proposals up to the year
2025.
7. Actively participate in developing and implementing federal task and
departmental programs:
- raise effectiveness of application-filing campaigns;
- ensure full financing and efficient use of allocated funds.
8. Actively raise investment in the Krai’s economy from the federal development
institutions (Russian Federation Investment Fund, Russian Federation Development
Bank, organization of special economic zones, etc.).
9. Take measures for generation of conditions and incentives for strengthening
and development of human potential:
- work out additional benefits for the Far-Eastern residents from the federal
authorities (to compensate for higher costs of labor power reproduction, to receive
transportation benefits for traveling to the central part of Russia, to lower the cost
of air and railway passenger conveyance, and preferential record of length of
service calculation, etc.);
- work with the federal authorities in order to increase the federal budget support of
social infrastructure development and securing higher standards for provision of
social services to the population;
72
- take measures for provision of affordable housing (to expand residential housing
construction, to provide the residents with land plots, to develop mortgage
lending, and to resettle residents from dilapidated and dangerous housing, etc.);
- work with the federal authorities for improvement of mechanisms for attraction
and securing of able-bodied population within the region;
- solve environmental issues and to ensure safety of the population.
10. Encourage public opinion and strengthen civil society:
- create new and expand existing self-governing and nonprofit organizations;
- develop laws and regulations for determining the means and the procedure of
citizens’ participation in strategic planning;
- raise the interest of nonprofit organizations participation in strategic planning;
- initiate public monitoring of Strategy’s implementation, to conduct public
appraisals of the projects and public hearings on Strategy’s implementation;
- provide the Strategy with the information support.
The Strategy’s implementation measures call for a system of program documents,
which identify and regulate the operating tasks and tactical objectives of the Krai
Government’s activities within the framework of the strategic plan: the Krai
Government’s main policies up to the year 2013, the Krai’s long-term (over 3
years) task programs, departmental programs, and budget messages by the
Governor to the Krai’s Legislative Duma (budget systems, short- and mediumterm (1-3 year) forecasts.
These laws and regulations, which support the Strategy, should determine the
quantitative efficiency indices of the Krai’s programs and projects.
In the medium-term perspective, the Strategy should become an obligatory
attribute of the indicative planning system, where it is the procedure of planning,
implementing, controlling, adjusting and updating that plays the most important
part rather than the plan per se. This process is notable for multistage iterations,
resulting not only in the exchange of information but also in attainment of a
consensus between the various partners to the economic activity and various
levels of economic activity and management.
9. Strategy’s Monitoring
73
The strategy is not a final and inalterable plan for the 17 years to come. It has to
be adjusted as needed during its implementation in compliance with the changes
in the external context of Russia’s, Russian Far-East’s, and Khabarovsky Krai’s
development. The Strategy’s possible adjustments include annual refining of its
forecasts of regional social and economic development and adjustment of the
Krai’s government policies up to the year 2013, the Krai’s task and departmental
programs. Besides, it is advisable to adjust the Strategy in its entirety every
three to five years, so that necessary amendments and supplements could be added
in.
For the purpose of the Strategy’s efficient implementation, timely assessment of
the Krai’s social and economic development, and control over the achievement of
results provided therein, the Strategy’s steady monitoring is required.
Monitoring will serve as a feedback mechanism for the territorial administration,
which ensures the dynamics of the Krai’s social and economic development, it
will the basis for analyzing the causes for any departures from the planned course
of development and will allow for managerial decision-making and adjustment of
strategic documents. Monitoring is the basis for providing all the required data for
improving the quality of managerial decisions made.
The main indices and innovative scenario targets used for monitoring of the
Strategy’s implementation are listed in Tables 5 and 6. They will allow of
assessment of the effectiveness within the Strategy’s framework.
Table 5
(percent in comparable prices)
Indices
Gross regional
product
Fixed capital
investments
Industrial
production index
Agricultural gross
production
Retail trade
turnover
Transport freight
turnover
Communication
Average
annual rate of
growth during
2008-2015
Average
annual rate of
growth during
2016-2025
Average
annual rate of
growth during
2008-2025
Level of Economic Development
105.2
109.0
107.3
2025
versus
2007
355.0
109.0
110.5
109.8
537.5
106.5
109.1
107.9
391.0
103.0
101.7
102.3
149.5
106.3
106.7
106.5
311.8
111.2
102.9
106.5
309.4
112.6
108.4
110.2
577.3
74
Indices
Average
annual rate of
growth during
2008-2015
Average
annual rate of
growth during
2016-2025
Average
annual rate of
growth during
2008-2025
2025
versus
2007
Standards of Living
108.5
108.2
108.4
423.2
109.6
107.8
387.5
services
Real monetary
income
Real wages
received
Average annual population
size
Share of people with income
below the cost of living in the
total population
Percent of middle class in
total population
Ratio of average per capita
income and cost of living
Natality per 1,000 people
Life expectancy at birth
Mortality per 1,000 people
Rate of unemployment
registered as per International
Labor Organization methods
106.5
Unit of
measurement
Year
2007
Year
2015
Table № 6
Year
2025
Thousand
people
percent
1404.6
1398.0
1500.0
15.5
12.5
7.5
-"-
20.0
27.0
50.0
times
2.8
4.5
8.7
11.6
64.8
14.2
5.9
12.2
66.0
14.0
4.9
10.9
72.0
12.0
2.9
years
percent
The Krai’s Government is in charge of organization of the Strategy monitoring
and control over implementation thereof.
Periodic reporting is the tool to identify the extent of realization of strategic goals
and the state of social and economic processes within the Krai. The report data are
provided by the territorial authority under the Federal Statistics Service in and for
Khabarovsky Krai, the Krai’s ministries and other executive authorities, experts
and sociological studies conducted.
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