Liberty-Call-Crane-Neg-Kentucky-Round2

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Missouri HR

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N. Ryan

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N. Ryan

***First Off the K***

The aff discourse of climate threat masks the complexity of environmental change and fuels neorealist policies.

Ahmed, Institute for Policy Research and Development director, 2012

(Nafeez, “The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society”, Global Change, Peace & Security, SAGE, accessed 2/15/13, soap)

Unfortunately, orthodox

…..

systemic context

.

The aff’s logic is based on a desire to control and manage that renders everything knowable and hence predictable. This static epistemology results in a static ontology of the self and politics, destroying personal agency in decision-making, reifying structural antagonisms, and culminating in limitless war and otherization. Vote neg to reject the logic of the 1AC. Only a radical negation can disrupt dominant epistemologies.

Burke, New South Wales IR professor, 2007

(Anthony, “Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason”, Theory and Event, 10.2, project muse, ldg)

I see such a drive….and violence? Will our thought?

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***Second Off CP***

Text: The United States Federal Government should allow for Congressional oversight of the drone program AND disclose a legal rational for each strike to the public.

Transparency solves – key to oversight, modeling, and accountability

Zenko, Council on Foreign Relations Fellow, 13

(Micah, “Reforming US Drone Strike Policies,” January 2013, accessed 8-6-13, hec)

History shows that

……

the following specific policy recommendations.

Genuine, prior consultation with Congress is vital to sustainable American foreign policy leadership and presidential flexibility regarding foreign affairs

Hamilton 93

(Lee, fmr US Representative—Indiana, CSM, 1/21, lexis)

Congress brings other strengths ……….

foreign-policy matters

.

Bipartisan support for the CP

Serwer, Mother Jones former reporter, 12

(Adam, 7-31-12, “Congress Wants to See Obama's "License to Kill,"” accessed 9-19-13, http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/congress-disclose-obama-targeted-killing-memos, hec)

Congress is finally standing ……….

towards the ACLU's position.

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***Third Off Heg***

President’s executive flexibility high now- Syria decision proves

Posner, professor at the University of Chicago Law School, 9-3

(Eric, 9-3-13, “Obama Is Only Making His War Powers Mightier,” Slate, da 9-18-13, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2013/09/obama_going_to_congress_on_syria_he_s_actually_str engthening_the_war_powers.html, mee)

President

Obama’s …..

have described it before him.

Restrictions of drones tank heg – leads to loss of Presidential power

Bruntstetter, University of California Political Science professor, 12

(Daniel, 4/10/12, “Drones: The Future of Warfare?” accessed 9/1/13, www.e-ir.info/2012/04/10/drones-the-future-of-warfare/, kns)

Since President Obama took office, ……….. effectiveness in all situations.

Presidential power key to heg – turns heg

Deans, Natural Resource Defense Council director of communications, 00

(Bob,1/23/00, White House Correspondents' Association former president, “The American Presidency: White House Power

Growing,” The Atlanta Journal Constitution, accessed 9/2/13, kns)

Yet the U.S. presidency

, ……… ''A Century's Journey,'' that elaborates on the theme.

Hegemony decline causes prolif.

Rosen, professor of National Security and Military Affairs at Harvard University, 2003

(Stephen, “An Empire, If you Can Keep It”, National Interest, Spring, lexis, ldg)

Rather than wrestle with such ………..

are that much more attractive.

Proliferation guarantees massive nuclear escalation and war

Utgoff, Institute for Defense Analyses deputy director, 2

[Victor A., former National Security Council staff, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions,” Survival, vol. 44, p85-

102]

Once a conflict reaches ………. or even whole nations

.

.

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N. Ryan

***Fourth Off Politics***

Obama's capital will force the GOP to quickly cave and end the shutdown

WSJ, 10-2

("A GOP Shutdown Strategy," date accessed: 10-5-13, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303464504579107720562837270.html, LMM)

President

Obama defaulted to ………..

by surrender would be the worst possible result.

Restrictions on the Presidents war powers authority crush his credibility and derail his agenda

Edwards and Howell, Professors of Political Science, 09

(George C., University Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jordan Chair in Presidential Studies at Texas A&M

University, and William G., Sydney Stein Professor in American Politics at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy

Studies, “The Oxford Handbook of the American Presidency”, accessed on Google Books)

Yet, manipulating public ………..

for his or her future power prospects.

GOP will give in as long as Obama holds the line

Giroux, Bloomberg, 9-20

(Gregory, “Murray Sees Republicans Yielding,” 9-20-13, http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2013-09-20/murray-seesrepublicans-yielding/, DOA: 9-21-13, ara)

Republicans seeking to curb

………. federal borrowing limit.

Decline causes war

Royal 10

(Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and

Brauer, p. 213–215)

Less intuitive is how periods of

………..

deserves more attention.

AND

Growth solves bioweapons

Lewis, Stanford University, 2009

(Grant, “The Spread of Biological Agents Bioterrorism & Black Markets”, www.stanford.edu/.../The%20Spread%20of%20Biological%20Agents%20Bioterrorism%20&, ldg)

These requirements reduce ………. borders are insufficient.

Bioweapons cause extinction

Richard Ochs , APG Superfund Citizens' Coalition, 6/9/ 02 , "Biological Weapons Must be Abolished Immediately"

Of all the weapons of ………..? How slippery is this slope?

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***Advantage International Escalation***

Pakistan collapse inevitable and key to prevent larger crisis

Gould, UVA Center for South Asian Studies visiting scholar, 11

(Harold, 1/16/11, “A disintegrating Pakistan: Choices for US and India,” Decan Herald, accessed 9/21/13, http://www.deccanherald.com/content/129639/a-disintegrating-pakistan-choices-us.html, kns)

Islamic fanaticism

, conjoined …………. indeed the end of the affair.

No impact to Pakistan instability- their ev is hype

Hundley, Pulitzer Center, 12

(Tom, master’s degree in international relations from the University of Pennsylvania, “Pakistan and India: Race to the End,” 9-5-12, http://pulitzercenter.org/reporting/pakistan-nuclear-weapons-battlefield-india-arms-race-energy-cold-war, DOA: 9-22-13, ara)

With both sides armed …………

nuclear weapons are secure."

Terrorism not linked to drones – too many alt causes

Wolff, Birmingham International Security Professor, ‘13

(Stefan, “Drone Warfare: Effective or counter-productive?” 4-28-13 http://www.stefanwolff.com/files/Drone%20Warfare-effective%20or%20counter-productive.pdf accessed: 8-8-13 mlb)

Increased support

(limited or otherwise)

………..

be attributed to the use of drones.

India and Pakistan peaceful now

Gare, Carnegie Endowment for Peace South Asia Program director, 13

(Frederic, 1/30/13, “Is Pakistan’s Behavior Changing?” accessed 10/1/13, https://www.carnegieendowment.org/2013/03/01/stalinpuzzle/flpg, kns)

Islamabad has been ………..

, purely speculative at this stage.

No war- economic realities, political actors, and lessons learned- Mumbai proves

Chu and King , Times Staff writers, 20 08

[Henry and Laura, December 6, "India, Pakistan keep lid on tensions," http://articles.latimes.com/2008/dec/06/world/fgindiapakistan6, accessed 10-13-10, ADS]

Hostility

between India ……… [as 2001-02], they'll be mistaken."

AQAP is collapsing in Yemen – cooperation proves

Sharqieh, Brookings Fellow, 12

(Ibrahim, “U.S.-Yemeni Terror Obsession Will Not Solve Yemen's Woes,” 11-13-12, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/11/13-us-yemen-terrorism-sharqieh, accessed 7-28-13, hec)

In the congratulatory cable……… aid to [Yemen] this year".

No threat from AQAP- lack of leadership

Bergen et al, director of the National Security Program at the New America Foundation, 13

(Peter, fellow at Fordham University’s Center on National Security; and CNN’s national security analyst, Bruce Hoffman is a professor at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, director of both the Center for Security Studies and the Security Studies Program, Michael Hurley is the president of Team 3i LLC, advises the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Homeland

Security Project, retired from the CIA, director on the National Security Council staff, Erroll Southers is the associate director of research transition at the Department of Homeland Security’s National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events

(CREATE) at the University of Southern California, adjunct professor in the Sol Price School of Public Policy, former FBI special agent, September 2013, “Jihadist Terrorism: A Threat Assessment,” National Security Program, Bipartisan Policy Center Homeland

Security Project, da 9-19-13, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Jihadist%20Terrorism-A%20Threat%20Assesment_0.pdf, mee)

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Awlaki’s death

……….injuring more than 200.97

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Alt cause to anti-Americanism – the government, women’s rights, Islamic tenants

Etzioni, Professor of international relations at George Washington, 13

(amitai, senior advisor to the Carter White House; taught at Columbia University, Harvard and the University of California at

Berkeley; University. served as the president of the American Sociological Association. “Drones: Say it with figures” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/Outside-View/2013/04/30/Outside-View-Drones-Say-it-with-figures/UPI-

25571367294880/. April 30 2013. accessed 7/29/13)RAM

Attacking drones, the ……..

drone-targeted Pakistan

No nuclear terrorism-

-terrorists exaggerate their capabilities

-unanimous agreement by qualified experts

-empirically proven by 172 attacks

-Aum’s failed attempts prove

-Iran proves

-States protect and won’t share nuclear weapons- they fear retribution

Bergen , New York University’s Center on Law and Security fellow, Sept 20 10

[Peter, New America Foundation fellow, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies adjunct professor,

CNN's terrorism analyst, “Reevaluating Al-Qa`ida’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Capabilities,” CTC Sentinel, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=122242, accessed 12-28-10, mss]

Bin Ladin’s

and al-Zawahiri’s

………..

effect will be panic and a limited number of casualties.

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***SOP***

SOP is obsolete and incapable of regulating the executive- other branches lack capacity

Posner and Vermeule, University of Chicago professor and Harvard Law School professor, 11

(Eric and Adrian, 2/16/11, “The Credible Executive,” Social Science Network, accessed 9/14/13, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=931501, kns)

We begin with the …….. administrative behavior.

Alt cause to interbranch conflict – warming legislation

Hattern and Goad, hill reporters, 8-26

(Julain and Ben, 8-26-13, “Regulation Nation: Obama bypassing Congress on Climate”, DOA: 9-10-13, http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/318599-regulation-nation-obama-pins-climate-hopes-on-bypassing-congress, llc)

His plan to combat ……..

energy needs is a big, big stretch.”

Alt cause – Obama’s overreach in war powers and Syria

LaRouchepac, 9-13

(LaRouchePac , 9-31-13, “Congress Escalates Fight Against Obama’s War Dictatorship”, DOA: 9-10-13, http://larouchepac.com/node/27956, llc)

The battle against ………, including 71 Democrats

.

Interbranch conflict produces better SOP, decision-making and democracy

Zeisberg, University of Michigan Political Science professor, 13

(Mariah, 6/21/13, War Powers: The Politics of Constitutional Authority, Princeton University Press, accessed 9/10/13, Google Books, kns)

Clearly the Constitution ………. of constitutional authority.

Conflict inevitable- SOP, turf battles, different constituencies

Whicker and Strickland, Rutgers Public Administration professor and Appalachian State Political

Science professor, 94

(Marcia and Ruth, Fall 1994, “The Impact of Presidential Selection Methods on Executive-Legislative Conflict,” accessed 9/11/13,

JSTOR, kns)

This paper used computer ………… approach using sensitivity testing will be used.

Alt cause- IRS scandal’s increasing resentment towards the executive

Gentilvisio, Huffington Post Senior Politics Editor, 9/13

(Chris, 9/13/13, “Louie Gohmert Blasts Obama Administration, IRS: Defunding The Executive Branch May Be Necessary,”

Huffington Post, accessed 9/13/13, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/13/louie-gohmertobama_n_3922169.html?utm_hp_ref=politics, kns)

Rep. Louie

Gohmert

(R…….. Declaration of Independence.

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N. Ryan

***CP***

Overview: Solves for the entirety of the aff as increased transparency makes the governments of Yemen and Pak happy as they will know the United States policies towards drones. Her entire SOP advantage is predicated off of the branches not conflicting with each other. Cp solves for this as presidential restraint sends a signal that he is willing to forgo his presidential war power to prevent conflict. Also

Perm:

Presidential power is zero-sum- competition, willingness to abdicate, conflicting constituencies

Barilleaux and Kelley, Miami University Political Science professors, 10

(Ryan and Christopher, “The Unitary Executive and Modern Presidency,” Texas A&M Press, accessed 9/14/13, Google Books, p. 80, kns)

In their book The Broken Branch, Mann and Ornstein paint a different view. They discuss a wider range of public policy areas than just uses of force. Their argument is that although party is important as a conditioning factor

for times when Congress might try to restrain an aggressive or noncompliant executive

, there has also been a broader degrading of institutional power that has allowed, in a zero-sum context , the president to expand executive power at the expense of Congress.

Mann and Ornstein thus posit that congressional willingness to subordinate its collective power to that of the president has occurred across domestic politics and foreign affairs. They argue that a variety of factors

are at fault for this trend, including

the loss of institutional identity,

the willingness to abdicate responsibility

to the president, the demise of "regular order

," and most importantly that

Congress has lost its one key advantage as a legislative body —the decay of the deliberative process.

Thus, they do recognize that party politics has played an important role in the degrading of congressional power, but they see a larger dynamic at work

, one that reaches beyond partisanship

. While we agree with Howell and Pevehouse that

Congress retains important mechanisms for constraining the president, we tend to agree with the Mann and Ornstein view that there has been a significant and sustained decline in Congress's willingness to use these

mechanisms to challenge presidential power

. This tendency has been more prevalent in foreign affairs but has occurred noticeably across the spectrum of public policy issues. Building from both of those perspectives, and others, we argue that it is helpful to understand the pattern of congressional complicity in the rise of presidential power by viewing Congress's aiding and abetting as the logical outcomes of a collective action problem

.31 By constitutional design, the legislative branch is in competition with the president for institutional power

, yet

Congress is less than ideally suited for such a political conflict

.

Congress's comparative disadvantage begins with its 535 "interests" that are very rarely aligned,

and if so, only momentarily

. Because individual reelection overshadows all other goals, members of Congress naturally seek to take as much credit and avoid as much blame from their constituencies

as possible.32

The dilemma this creates for members is how to use or delegate its collective powers

in order to maximize credit and minimize blame

in the making of public policy. Congress can choose to delegate power internally to committees and party leaders or externally to the executive branch. One can conceptualize the strategic situation of members of Congress in terms of a prisoner's dilemma.33

If members cooperate

(that is, in Mann and Ornstein's parlance, if members identify with the institution

), they could maintain and advance

Congress's institutional power

. But they would have to bypass some potential individual payoffs that could come from defection, such as "running against Congress" as an electoral strategy. A stronger institution should make all members of Congress better off, but it also makes them responsible for policymaking.

If members defect from the institution, they thus seek to maximize constituency interests either by simply allowing power to fall by the wayside or by simply delegating it to the president

.

As more and more members choose to defect

over time, the "public good" of a strong Congress is not provided

for or maintained— and Congress's institutional authority erodes

and presidential power fills in the gap. Why, in other words, is congressional activism so often "less than meets the eye," as

Barbara Hinckley maintained in her book by that title? Or why has the ''culture of deference" that Stephen Weissman identified developed as it has?34 We argue that the collective action problem that exists in Congress leads to the development of these trends away from meaningful congressional stewardship of foreign policy and spending.

Strong president key - Congressional deliberation takes too long, relies on inexpert advice, and divulges too much sensitive information

Weinberger, University of Puget Sound Politics and Government professor, 9

(Seth, “Balancing War Powers in an Age of Terror,” The Good Society, Vol. 18, Issue 2, accessed 9/15/13, http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/good_society/v018/18.2.weinberger.pdf, kns)

When the president wants to take, pursuant to his powers as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, an action that is inherently legislative in nature, he must have explicit permission from "an

Act of Congress or from the Constitution itself."24 Since, as Justice Black notes, the Constitution refutes the idea that the president can have legislative powers, the permission must come from an Act of Congress. Without such permission, a president is not allowed to seize steel mills to ensure that the supply of war-essential materiel is not threatened, conduct warrantless wiretapping of American citizens, indefinitely detain without challenge those suspected of involvement in international terrorist organizations, or change the rules governing the procedures for military commissions.

In wartime,

however, it may be neither expedient nor strategically sound for the president to be forced to come before

Congress for permission for each and every legislative action deemed necessary for the war effort

.

Circumstances in war are fluid and unpredictable

, and legislation passed at one time may quickly become irrelevant

or obsolete. The deliberation and compromise

that are the hallmarks of congressional legislation may be ill-suited to war

, which demands swift and decisive action to keep on top of rapidly shifting military situations

. As one scholar puts it, "

Congress at war is not a pretty sight. The legislative branch can be questioning and judgmental

, impatient for victories yet free with inexpert advice

, slow to provide

the men and material for combat, reluctant to vote the taxes needed to pay for the war

, critical of generals

, and

careless with secrets

."25 In times in which the country faces an existential, or otherwise exceedingly dangerous, threat, it may not behoove the president, the military, or the nation as a whole to require the president to ask Congress time and time again to enact laws to advance the war effort.

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Doesn’t solve presidential power

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Bellia, Notre Dame Law professor, 2

(Patricia, Spring 2002, “Executive Power in Youngstown’s Shadows,” Const. Commentary 87, accessed 9/15/13, lexis nexis, kns)

Second, courts' failure to resolve the contours of the President's constitutional powers creates uncertainty about

whether some forms of constitutionally based executive action

have the same legal force as a federal statute. Returning to Dames & Moore, the fact that the Court rested the President's authority on grounds of congressional approval

rather than implied constitutional authority avoided the difficult question of how the

President could by his sole authority displace the application of the federal statutes t hat had provided

the basis for

Dames & Moore's original cause of action against the Iranian enterprises. 291 Similar questions arise with respect to the displacement of state law by operation of sole executive agreements.

The result is confusion about whether sole executive agreements are the "supreme Law of the Land

," 292 with the available precedents suggesting that they are

293 and

the weight of recent commentary suggesting that they are not.

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***International Escalation***

No causal link

Wolff, Birmingham International Security Professor, ‘13

(Stefan, “Drone Warfare: Effective or counter-productive?” 4-28-13 http://www.stefanwolff.com/files/Drone%20Warfare-effective%20or%20counter-productive.pdf accessed: 8-8-13 mlb)

On the other hand, ……… in counter-terrorist campaigns.

No conflict- deterrence and history

Tepperman, former deputy managing editor of Foreign Affairs, 09

(Jonathan, “Why Obama Should Learn to Love the Bomb,” August 28, 2009, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/08/28/why-obama-should-learn-to-love-the-bomb.html, accessed 5/7/13, kns)

The record since then shows …..

had to do to avoid it.

Indo-Pak war no longer an option – nuclear deterrence and economic ties

Bhatt

,

11

(Semu, “The future costs of conflict - I Changing mindsets,” http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=33724&Cat=14&dt=3/2/2011, CW, accessed on 3/19/11)

Given the complexity

and ………… — risk getting increasingly involved in the Indo-Pak imbroglio.

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Politics

If they win that collapse is possible – economic decline collapses Pakistan – at least this functions as another alt cause

Washington Post, 8

(Nov. 15, Experts See Security Risks in Downturn”, Accessed 10-2-13, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/11/14/AR2008111403864.html) NJR

Intelligence officials are warning ……. against new threats.

Default collapses heg- makes US unable to fund wars through deficit spending and credit – assumes their scenario

Beauchamp, London School of Economics IR Masters of Science, 11

(Zack, M.Sc in International Relations from the London School of Economics, ThinkProgress.org reporter, contributor to Andrew

Sullivan’s The Dish at Newsweek/Daily Beast, written for Foreign Policy and Tablet magazines, B.A.s in Philosophy and Political

Science from Brown University, "Do Debt Ceiling Stalwarts Want U.S. Military Decline?," 7-13-11, http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/07/debt-ceiling-and-foreign-policy.html, accessed 1-5-13, mtf)

I'm going to ……..

U.S. hegemony?

Shutdown will be short now – Boehner will likely cave after one week

Collender, Budget Expert at Qorvis Communications, 10-1

(Stan, "#Cliffgate Begins: Why The Shutdown Will Last At Least A Week," date accessed: 10-5-13, http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/stan-collender/2772/cliffgate-begins-why-shutdown-will-last-least-week, LMM)

It also means that the …….. possibly even mandatory

.

Shutdown will end

Scheiber, Political Reporter at the New Republic, 10-2

(Noam, "Conservatives Have Already Lost Control of the Shutdown Narrative," date accessed: 10-5-13, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114954/government-shutdown-2013-conservatives-lose-controlnarrative?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=flyout&utm_campaign=mostpopular, LMM)

The 11 a.m. hour nicely ….. it will hurt Republicans.

Will get done – but will be a fight

Financial Times, 9-26

(“Meet the new idiots, same as the… actually these idiots might be worse”, Accessed 10-2-13, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/09/26/1647792/meet-the-new-idiots-same-as-the-actually-these-idiots-might-be-worse/) NJR

To the seasoned finance …….

to a deal on the debt ceiling.

Plan is a perceived loss for Obama that saps his capital

Loomis, Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, 7

(Andrew, 3-2-07, “Leveraging legitimacy in the crafting of U.S. foreign policy”, Accessed 9-16-13, http://citation.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/7/9/4/8/pages179487/p179487-1.php) NJR

Declining political authority ……

and affect the character of policy decisions.

Reducing Obama’s war powers causes a crippling loss of credibility- causes republicans to put up a more concerted fight on the debt ceiling which would wreck the markets

Seeking Alpha, 9-10

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(“Syria Could Upend Debt Ceiling Fight”, Accessed 9-15-13, http://seekingalpha.com/article/1684082-syria-could-upend-debtceiling-fight) NJR

Currently, the government

……

"black swan" event.

President has to spend political capital defending war powers

Samples, director of the Center for Representative Government, 11

(John, at the CATO Institute, 10-27, “Congress Surrenders the War Powers Libya, the United Nations, and the Constitution”,

Accessed 9-16-13, http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa687.pdf) NJR

But political representation …… matter in war-making.

Perception of losing decks the president

Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, 01

(Norman, American Enterprise Institute, September 10, Lexis)

The compromise accomplished ……… more often than not.

Challenging presidential war powers is controversial

Yoo, Former Deputy Assistant Attorney General, 2-1

(John, Law Professor at Cal Berkley, “War Powers Belong to the President”, Accessed 9-15-13, http://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/war_powers_belong_to_the_president) NJR

Common sense does not support ………..

inaction and isolationism.

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PC Key

Obama’s capital ensures he has the upper hand on ending the shutdown now

Foster, Daily Telegraph, 10-2

( Peter, "US government shutdown: Barack Obama likely to come out on top," date accessed: 10-5-13, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-politics/10346071/US-government-shutdown-Barack-Obama-likely-to-come-out-ontop.html, LMM)

In the days ahead, ………..

considerable head-start.

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PC High

Obama’s capital gives him the advantage

Feldmann, CSM, 10-1

(Linda, "Government shutdown: Obama faces political risks, too," date accessed: 10-5-13, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-

Decoder/2013/1001/Government-shutdown-Obama-faces-political-risks-too, LMM)

Still, they won’t ……….. to how the Republicans fare.

Obama’s pressuring the GOP with a strong display of Presidential strength and staying on message – the

GOP will blink

Dovere, Politico, 10-1

(Edward, “Government shutdown: President Obama holds the line” date accessed: 10-5-13, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3, LMM)

President Barack

Obama …………

the other way as people rethink this.”

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