Obama Politics
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Disadvantage
Economy Disadvantage .................................................................................................................................. 1
Overview ........................................................................................................................................................ 2
Shell ................................................................................................................................................................ 3
Shell ................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Uniqueness: Obama will Pass Stimulus ......................................................................................................... 5
Uniqueness: Obama will Pass Stimulus ......................................................................................................... 6
Uniqueness: Obama Stimulus Will Include Renewable Energy .................................................................... 7
Uniqueness: Obama Stimulus Will Include Renewable Energy .................................................................... 8
Uniqueness: Obama Stimulus Will Include Renewable Energy .................................................................... 9
Uniqueness: Obama High Political Capital Now ......................................................................................... 10
Brink: GOP will Fight Obama ..................................................................................................................... 11
Links: ............................................................................................................................................................ 12
Links: ............................................................................................................................................................ 13
Impact: Recession Could Become Depression ............................................................................................. 14
Impact: Obama Stimulus Prevents Depression ............................................................................................ 15
Impact: Economy Key to American Way of Life ........................................................................................ 16
Impact: Economy Key to American Way of Life ........................................................................................ 17
Impact: US Economy Key to Leadership ..................................................................................................... 18
Impact: US Economy Key to Leadership ..................................................................................................... 19
Impact: US Economy Critical to World Economy....................................................................................... 20
Impact: US Economy Critical to World Economy....................................................................................... 21
Impact: Economic Collapse =s Disaster....................................................................................................... 22
Impact: Economic Collapse =s Disaster....................................................................................................... 23
Impact: Economic Collapse =s Disaster....................................................................................................... 24
Aff Answer: General .................................................................................................................................... 25
Aff Answer: Impact ...................................................................................................................................... 26
Aff Answer: Impact ...................................................................................................................................... 27
Aff Answer: Impact Turn ............................................................................................................................. 28
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Obama Politics
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Overview
The affirmative plan comes at the exact wrong time. Barak Obama is putting all his ducks in a row to make
sure he can pass an economic stimulus the first day he takes office, but NOT until then according to our Time
evidence.
By forcing Obama into action the affirmative plan will drain his focus, his political capital and force him to
work with an unpopular President. The link story is simple. Obama is closely connected with alternative
energy as is the Democratic Party. This means the plan is pushed by Democrats, not Bush, and that it is tied
to Obama as our Investment News evidence says. Obama will be forced into action sooner than he wished,
which our Salon.com evidence says will wreck his carefully crafted agenda. Moreover, Obama will lose
political capital by being forced to coordinate with Bush and he we will lose focus on the stimulus plan,
which is explained in our Frontrunner evidence.
We need an economic stimulus the day Obama takes office to prevent the recession from turning into a Great
Depression. The impact is a round winner. Failing to act now on the economy will cause 10 million people to
enter poverty as our Salon.com evidence and cause the current recession to turn into a Depression according
to our Time evidence. Moreover, the Silk evidence says that economic depression prevents our ability to
prevent war, famine, disease and environmental destruction. This turns and outweighs the affirmative case.
Additionally, the Obama stimulus plan will include funds for renewable energy and a new smart energy grid.
Greenwire December 4, 2008
TRANSITION: Senate energy committee collects 'green' stimulus ideas
Last month, Obama said he has directed his economic team to craft a package that will create 2.5 million jobs
by January 2011. Infrastructure and energy investments will play major roles, Obama said, while Senate
Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has similarly touted infrastructure and energy programs, including
transmission for renewable energy and a "smart" power grid. Earlier this week, Obama told a state
governors meeting in Philadelphia that the plan would provide substantial funding to states for infrastructure
projects (Greenwire, Dec. 2).
Without passing a smart grid renewable energy development is not possible. This is a solvency argument and
case turn.
Energy Washington Week October 15, 2008
National Academies Will Highlight Grid Limitations For Renewables
Bingaman has said grid infrastructure will be a priority for his committee in the 111th Congress. He
announced the committee's grid focus in a Sept. 25 floor speech, saying he would work to modernize the
nation's electricity infrastructure "to ensure [electricity] is transmitted" to load centers. He noted that multiple
energy goals, that observers say could include new renewable energy development and smart grid
modernization, can't be reached without adequate transmission. -- John Siciliano
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Obama Politics
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Shell
A. Barak Obama is going to pass an economic stimulus the moment he takes office to prevent a
depression.
Time December 8, 2008
Why He Just Can't Wait
Taking control of economic policy, Obama has assembled a team charged with preventing a depression.
Inside their race against time. Forget for now the way a Inauguration Days have unfolded in the past. Jan.
20, 2009, could turn out to be a very different kind of swearing in. Sometime around noon that day,
Barack Obama will stand before millions of people on the west front of the Capitol, put his hand on the Bible
and promise to "preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States." Then after delivering his
Inaugural Address, the 44th President may step inside the Capitol and sign the lead elements of a twoyear, $1 trillion economic-stimulus package, the largest ever fiscal booster shot in peacetime. Never
mind all the familiar chatter about a new President's first 100 days; Obama's first 100 hours could break some
records.
B. Links. The plan will tank Obama’s efforts to get an economic stimulus package passed the first day
he takes office.
1. Alternative energy is a Democratic issue and it is obviously tied to Obama.
Investment News December 1, 2008
Obama's sustainable-energy ideas give hope to some fund managers; Tax breaks courtesy of Stabilization
Act aim to bolster the sector
Mr. Obama's victory will also be a boost to alternative energy ETFs, with the U.S. potentially leapfrogging
Europe and Asia in this sector, according to Claymore Securities Inc. president Christian Magoon. The
Claymore/ MAC Global Solar Energy ETF, which was launched on April 15 as the nation's first solar ETF,
was up 25% to 30% in the two days leading up to Election Day, due to anticipation of a Democratic
landslide, he said. ``An Obama administration and a significant majority of Democrats in Congress I
think bodes ... a bright future for alternative energy policy and investing in alternative and renewable
energy,'' Mr. Magoon said. His Lisle, Ill-based firm supervised, managed, serviced or distributed $13.8
billion in assets on Sept. 30.
2. If the Democrats force Obama to act before taking office it will set him up for failure. He needs to
focus on developing his own plan.
Salon.com December 5, 2008
Let Obama be Obama
On the other hand, I remember many on the left, myself included, insisting during the presidential race that
Obama had to get tougher, attack more, and he never really did -- and he beat John McCain solidly. I now
trust his political instincts on these issues (not necessarily his policy instincts; we haven't seen enough) more
than my own. I also trust his calm, deliberative approach to problem solving, and I don't know why
Democrats are among those setting him up for potential failure by demanding that he act before he's
had time to develop a plan. I think supporters should stop hand-wringing and hectoring and let
Obama be Obama.
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Obama Politics
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Shell
3. Acting now via the plan will force Obama to coordinate with Bush during the lame duck congress.
This will drain Barak Obama’s political capital and throw his focus away from large scale stimulus.
The Frontrunner December 8, 2008
Obama Criticizes Bush On The Economy
The Wall Street Journal (12/8, Weisman, Solomon, 2.07M), under the headline "Obama Preserves Political
Capital For Stimulus Plan," reports "Obama's transition team is resisting Bush administration overtures
to coordinate more on the financial-sector rescue, convinced that neither the lame-duck President...nor
the president-elect has the clout to win a smooth congressional release of more bailout funds." The
Journal adds "transition aides are pressing Treasury officials to convene a bipartisan meeting on Capitol Hill
this week. Obama aides say the Treasury needs to sound out congressional leaders and rank-and-file
lawmakers on what information they need to release the second, $350 billion tranche from the government's
Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP." While "senior transition officials said they would attend the
meeting...they made clear they would neither lead it nor lobby for approval of the funds. Their focus is on
passing a separate, half-trillion dollar stimulus program that Mr. Obama said Sunday would be the
largest infrastructure program since the Eisenhower administration's construction of the interstate
highway system."
C. Impact
1. Without an economic recovery plan millions of American will fall into poverty
Salon.com December 8, 2008
Paul Krugman's depression economics
How bad do you think this is going to get? Awful. Without a major stimulus package -- sorry, I guess the
politically correct term is now "economic recovery plan" -- I'd say that we were definitely headed for doubledigit unemployment. Right now the economy is clearly falling as fast as, or faster than, it was in 1981-82,
which was a terrifying slump. If Obama doesn't come up with a massive plan, and possibly even if he does,
this is going to be a slump that pushes 10 million-plus Americans below the poverty line, and more.
2. Economic decline undermines solutions to ecology, diseases, famine and oppression.
Leonard Silk Winter (prof. of economics @ Pace U.), Foreign Affairs, 1993 Dangers of Slow Growth
Like the Great Depression, the current economic slump has fanned the fires of nationalist, ethnic and
religious hatred around the world. Economic hardship is not the only cause of these social and political
pathologies, but it aggravates all of them, and in turn they feed back on economic development. They also
undermine efforts to deal with such global problems as environmental pollution, the production and
trafficking of drugs, crime, sickness, famine, AIDS and other plagues. Growth will not solve all of these
problems by itself. But economic growth – and growth alone – creates the additional resources that make
it possible to achieve such fundamental goals as higher living standards, national and collective security, a
healthier environment, and more liberal and open economies and societies.
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Obama Politics
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Uniqueness: Obama will Pass Stimulus
Obama is sending a clear single that will he will not stumble on economic policy.
Time December 8, 2008
Why He Just Can't Wait
The Obama era, it is now clear, began on Election Day and will not wait. Like his presidential campaign, his
transition is proving to be historic. Unwilling to bide his time until President Bush packs up his things and
leaves town, Obama simply took control of economic policy on Nov. 23, when he unveiled an economic
team noted for its brains and experience and asked it to come up with a massive economic-stimulus plan, in
the hopes of rushing it through Congress and readying it for him to sign by the time he is sworn in. The next
day, he launched a pre-emptive strike against the bloated federal budget, noting that some recipients of
federal farm subsidies are millionaires who no longer need relief. Taken together, his bold moves heralded
the fastest start by a President-elect in memory and one of the most dramatic takeovers ever. "I think it is
very important for the American people to have clarity that we don't intend to stumble into the next
Administration," Obama said Tuesday.
Obama is pushing a large scale stimulus plan
The Boston Globe November 26, 2008
Obama's budget-cutting options are limited Discretionary funds often most popular
At the same time, Obama said he is pursuing a "two-fer" strategy under which some of his campaign
promises, such as tax cuts for most working Americans, would be reworked into a massive package to jumpstart the economy and create or save 2.5 million jobs by 2011. Another example of an initiative that would
provide a short-term boost and lay the groundwork for long-term growth, he said, would be medical
technology, such as electronic record-keeping, that would create jobs and provide business for computer
companies now, then make healthcare more efficient in the long term.
Obama is targeting infrastructure with his stimulus plan.
The New Republic December 24, 2008
Dynamic Duo
Start with the present economic crisis. By now, even the most hard-core fiscal conservatives are discovering
their inner Keynesians, calling for new government spending to stimulate the economy. But spending on
what exactly? Infrastructure is the most obvious target, because infrastructure spending creates jobs. But
recent reports suggest that the number of projects that are ready to go--that is, those that could start up as
soon as money is available--would account for only tens of billions in new spending, which is just a fraction
of the stimulus many economists say we need in the very near future. There's also the possibility of tax
rebates. But recent experience suggests that all but the poorest tend to save the money rather than spend it-which basically defeats the purpose.
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Uniqueness: Obama will Pass Stimulus
Obama is going to pass a large stimulus plan that includes funding for job creating alternative energy
programs. His main energy focus will be a new energy grid.
Time December 8, 2008
Why He Just Can't Wait
Plan of attack: Whatever its other challenges, the new economic team already has one huge advantage:
economists from both right and left now agree that a massive stimulus measure is needed--and soon. The
eminence grise of Republican economic advisers, Harvard's Martin Feldstein, raised some eyebrows in
October by saying the stimulus package might need to be as big as $300 billion. Already that seems timid.
Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs, is telling clients he expects Obama's stimulus package to be
$400 billion to $500 billion a year in order to compensate for a retrenchment in personal spending.
Regardless of the final size, here are some of the likely elements of Obama's plan. Tax cuts: The middle class
will get a tax cut quickly, say several Democrats familiar with the planning. There may also be a payroll tax
break to speed some extra cash to all. Obama may even postpone his plans to roll back the Bush tax cuts for
the wealthiest Americans and delay any tax hike on top-tier earners until 2011, when the cuts expire under
current law. Jobs: Obama has promised to create 2.5 million new jobs and plans to do so, at least in part, the
old-fashioned way: by rebuilding sewer systems, bridges, schools and other ailing parts of the nation's
infrastructure. After the I-35W bridge in Minneapolis collapsed in 2007, killing 13, the National
Transportation Safety Board identified some 740 bridges of similar age and design in the U.S. They'll be
targeted for repair. But Obama believes that the country could invest wisely in a new generation of green
jobs as well, in fields such as alternative energy and advanced biofuels. He has long promised to make the
economy more energy efficient, but his plans in this area have always been somewhat murky. What has
become clear in recent weeks is that his plans for investing in energy will be merged with his need to
stimulate the economy. This means upgrading the nationwide electrical grid to prevent power outages and
shore up weak spots. Democratic officials say another key initiative will be a nationwide campaign to install
so-called smart meters that monitor energy flows to limit waste. Some high-tech players in the field claim
such devices could ease pressures on the grid and save consumers millions. Health care: While Obama
cannot insert a fully formed, carefully drafted plan for universal health coverage into a hurried-up economicstimulus plan, transition aides say he will direct billions toward the health-care sector immediately. Some
will go to a massive tech upgrade for an industry that in many ways is still paper-based. More urgent is the
need to funnel cash directly from Washington to states so that local legislators don't rush to cut spending on
Medicaid as state tax receipts dry up in the recession. "Absent some relief there, you'll get Medicaid budgets
slashed," says a senior Democratic aide familiar with the plans. Depending on what Summers and Geithner
propose, the size of the total package could easily top $500 billion in the first year, dwarfing the $150 billion
stimulus Bush pushed through Congress in February. The inertia that typically keeps Congress from
spending itself silly has gone on vacation: Republicans are in retreat, and even they agree that something
dramatic is necessary. If anything, only the President-elect is talking about scrubbing the federal budget
carefully for savings.
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Obama Politics
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Uniqueness: Obama Stimulus Will Include Renewable Energy
Obama will provide energy subsidies in the stimulus plan.
The Hotline December 4, 2008
Use Your Illusion III
Obama "supported a measure to address global warming by capping carbon emissions while allowing
companies to buy and trade pollution permits" during the campaign." And that he would also "devote $150
billion of the revenue from the sale of those permits over 10 years to energy efficiency and alternative
energy projects." The Obama adviser "said...Obama would not await passage of a global warming bill
before embarking on the new energy and infrastructure spending." The Obama admin. is working with
congressional officials who "said the stimulus program was also likely to involve tax breaks or direct
government subsidies for a variety of clean energy projects, including solar arrays, wind farms, advanced
biofuels and technology to capture carbon dioxide emissions from coal-burning power plants." They both
"say they want a plan ready shortly after Congress reconvenes" in Jan. (Broder, New York Times, 12/4).
The stimulus could include 100 billion for alternative energy.
Greenwire December 5, 2008
RENEWABLE ENERGY: States struggle to meet own goals
Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said at a Dec. 2 meeting with business and environment groups
that an economic stimulus bill now being crafted could devote up to $100 billion to alternative-energy
spending.
The Obama energy plan will include funds for a smart energy grid.
Greenwire December 4, 2008
TRANSITION: Senate energy committee collects 'green' stimulus ideas
Last month, Obama said he has directed his economic team to craft a package that will create 2.5 million jobs
by January 2011. Infrastructure and energy investments will play major roles, Obama said, while Senate
Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has similarly touted infrastructure and energy programs, including
transmission for renewable energy and a "smart" power grid. Earlier this week, Obama told a state
governors meeting in Philadelphia that the plan would provide substantial funding to states for infrastructure
projects (Greenwire, Dec. 2).
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Obama Politics
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Uniqueness: Obama Stimulus Will Include Renewable Energy
Obama will provide energy subsidies in the stimulus plan.
The Hotline December 4, 2008
Use Your Illusion III
Obama "supported a measure to address global warming by capping carbon emissions while allowing
companies to buy and trade pollution permits" during the campaign." And that he would also "devote $150
billion of the revenue from the sale of those permits over 10 years to energy efficiency and alternative
energy projects." The Obama adviser "said...Obama would not await passage of a global warming bill
before embarking on the new energy and infrastructure spending." The Obama admin. is working with
congressional officials who "said the stimulus program was also likely to involve tax breaks or direct
government subsidies for a variety of clean energy projects, including solar arrays, wind farms, advanced
biofuels and technology to capture carbon dioxide emissions from coal-burning power plants." They both
"say they want a plan ready shortly after Congress reconvenes" in Jan. (Broder, New York Times, 12/4).
The Obama stimulus will include money for alternative energy.
Contra Costa Times (California) December 9, 2008
Obama gains support to think big, act boldly on clean energy
With the recession getting worse and unemployment on the rise, pressure is building for a large stimulus
plan, costing $500 billion or more, next month. Reid, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and John Podesta, chief of the
transition team, favor a large "green recovery" component of that package, including more spending on
alternative fuels.
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Obama Politics
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Uniqueness: Obama Stimulus Will Include Renewable Energy
Obama will invest billions in a green recovery plan that includes alternative energy.
Contra Costa Times (California) December 9, 2008
Obama gains support to think big, act boldly on clean energy
Obama enters the White House with lots of political capital, an expanded Democratic majority in Congress,
and a raft of specific proposals from his own team and allies in the center-left think tanks of Washington.
Podesta, former chief of staff in the Clinton White House, heads one of those groups, the Center for
American Progress.He became Obama's transition chief in August, three months before the election, and
quietly began planning a fast start for the Obama presidency. Podesta's center in September issued a $100
billion "green recovery" plan of tax credits, direct spending and loan guarantees to spur clean technology and
energy efficiency and create 2 million jobs a major Obama goal.
The Obama stimulus plan will include at least 15 billion for alternative energy.
Contra Costa Times (California) December 9, 2008
Obama gains support to think big, act boldly on clean energy
The stimulus package in January will include at least $15 billion for clean tech and energy efficiency, an
Obama adviser has said. That would include money to weatherize homes and grants for mass transit. Reid
and Obama have used similar language that the economic crisis is "an opportunity" to build a clean-tech
infrastructure for the future while boosting jobs and growth in the short term. Jeff Anderson of San
Francisco, who chaired Clean Tech for Obama during the campaign, said the Obama team "wants as many
green elements as they can get" in the stimulus bill.
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Obama Politics
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Uniqueness: Obama High Political Capital Now
Obama is building up his credibility and political capital.
The Economist December 6, 2008
Jumping the gun; Lexington
The premature start to Mr Obama's first 100 days is rife with risk. Presidents inevitably use up their stock of
political capital as they spend it. They also gradually start to disappoint their friends and allies. Mr Obama
is shielded to some extent by his race and charisma. But he has already sorely tested the patience of some of
his most loyal supporters--first by appointing so many Clintonites to high office and then by keeping Mr
Gates at the Pentagon. Can it be long before the netroots begin to complain that they have been duped--that
"change" is simply more of the same? And can it be long before the ravening beast that is the media tires of
the story about the first black president and starts looking for Mr Obama's feet of clay? Against that it must
be said that the imprint Mr Obama is already putting on history is impressive. He has demonstrated that he is
self-confident enough to surround himself with big brains and strong personalities. He is also signalling that
he intends to govern pragmatically--changing America's foreign policy by degrees, not precipitously, and
focusing his energies on America's miserable economy. So far Mr Obama's premature 100 days have gone
better than anybody could have hoped.
Obama is not spending political capital in the status quo.
CNN December 7, 2008
After Party: Where Do We Go from Here?
C. HAYES: I think from the political perspective, that's right. The Obama people are smart when they spend
political capital and when they don't. They didn't go down for Georgia, they didn't cut an ad for Jim Martin in
the runoff because they knew that Jim Martin wasn't going to win. And I think they don't think that they can
win something in these next two months. It's unclear how they could. They're not going to spend capital.
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Brink: GOP will Fight Obama
Republicans will put up a fight over Obama’s stimulus bill.
The Boston Globe November 26, 2008
Obama's budget-cutting options are limited Discretionary funds often most popular
With 56 days until he becomes president, Obama has urged that Congress pass a stimulus bill soon after it
convenes on Jan. 6 and seek to have the measure ready for his signature when he becomes president on Jan.
20. But Republicans signaled yesterday that they may put up a fight. House GOP Leader John Boehner of
Ohio said yesterday that while Obama's economic team is experienced and qualified, "Americans simply do
not believe more government spending will get our economy moving again."
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Links:
Getting involved in politics of the lame duck session and the bailout will hurt Obama’s political
capital.
CNN December 7, 2008
After Party: Where Do We Go from Here?
Here's the first question -- there's an increasing chorus even from some Democrats that says Barack Obama
should get actively engaged in the fiscal crisis. Amy, do you think Republicans would welcome that idea?
HOLMES: I think they would. They would love for Barack Obama to get his hands dirty with this very, very
unpopular bailout, as we discussed on the show. Sixty one percent of the American people are against this, in
part because they already voted. It's sitting in their driveway and it's called a Honda. They didn't go to
Michigan to get their cars and now we're asking taxpayers to give even more money on top of the car they
bought? So I think for Barack Obama politically, as long as George Bush is unpopular, let him end his
presidency with this one and Barack Obama can come in new in January with the inauguration and start
setting his policy.
Obama’s first 100 days have already begun. He will get tied to the plan.
The Economist December 6, 2008
Jumping the gun; Lexington
EVER since Franklin Roosevelt put the building blocks of the New Deal in place in his first 100 days in
office, presidents have been subjected to the 100-days test. For that brief spell, they have a unique
opportunity to put their imprint on history--a honeymoon period when the public gives them the benefit of
the doubt and Congress defers to their popular mandate--and they squander it at their peril. One of the most
striking things about Barack Obama is that his 100 days seem to have already begun. Mr Obama repeatedly
insists that America only has "one president at a time". But since election day that "one president" seems to
have been the junior senator from Illinois rather than the former governor of Texas. Mr Obama has
dominated the news with a relentless succession of carefully timed and often dramatic press conferences. He
has embraced his former nemesis by making Hillary Clinton secretary of state. He has outraged the left by
keeping Robert Gates at the Pentagon and making James Jones, a former NATO supreme commander who
campaigned for John McCain, his national security adviser. He has reassured the markets by putting Tim
Geithner in the Treasury and appointing Larry Summers as his White House economics guru. And he has
made history by appointing Eric Holder as America's first black attorney-general. The Justice Department,
which once spied on Martin Luther King, will now be in the hands of a child of the civil-rights revolution.
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Links:
Obama can get sucked into proposals before he takes office.
Salon.com December 5, 2008
Let Obama be Obama
Still, I suspect Obama is going to have to say and do more about the economic mess in the weeks to come.
Specifically, he may have to spend political capital pushing a solution to the Big Three's woes, whether the
answer is a closely supervised government investment plan, or a structured Chapter 11 bankruptcy (as Robert
Reich called for today, also on David Gregory's "1600"). Clearly, it makes no sense to plan for a big stimulus
package, and set out to create 2 million jobs, as Obama has promised, while letting hundreds of thousands of
jobs disappear if domestic automakers fail. That would be a disaster no stimulus could counterbalance.
Obama will support renewable energy.
CNNMoney.com December 4, 2008
Mapping a renewable energy agenda
Renewable energy advocates were upbeat Thursday as they met in Washington, D.C. to discuss upcoming
energy policies expected under a new Obama Administration. "Candidate Obama made alternative energy
a central part of his campaign," former Sen. Tom Daschle, now Obama's pick for Health and Human
Services secretary, told the crowd at the Cannon House Office Building on Capitol Hill. "It will soon be a
new day for national climate and energy policy."
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Impact: Recession Could Become Depression
The current recession could turn into a Depression
Salon.com December 8, 2008
Paul Krugman's depression economics
The words "depression economics" don't necessarily mean that we are in a depression or inevitably headed
toward one. A more accurate definition would be that we are witnessing economic problems reminiscent of
the Great Depression, long after many economists concluded that the question of how to avoid depressions
had been permanently solved. Not true, says Krugman. If we don't watch out, we could steer the
current recession right into depression territory.
We are in a recession and only failed policy will cause it to become a recession.
The Times of Trenton (New Jersey) December 7, 2008
Bernanke has to stop recession from becoming a depression
But we are in a recession, one that already is longer than historical norms. The National Bureau of Economic
Research deemed the U.S. recession began last December, based on the breakdown in payrolls and economic
output that happened since then, according to a blog post by Jeffrey Frankel who sits on the NBER recessiondating committee.
That means we are already 12 months into this recession, topping the average duration of 10 months for the
last 10 recessions since 1945. Since many economists don't expect a recovery to begin until the middle of
next year at the earliest, that means this recession will likely be a minimum of 18 months - topping the
longest in modern history of 16 months.
In order to prevent it from dragging on like the 43-month contraction from August 1929 to March 1933,
policy makers must think outside of the box and they must articulate their intentions.
Obama must act fast to prevent a depression.
Time December 8, 2008
Why He Just Can't Wait
Obama no longer has the luxury of waiting. In the past two weeks alone, General Motors announced it has
only three months of cash left before it will run out of money, and the Federal Government was forced to
rush to halt a shareholder run on the giant banking conglomerate Citigroup. Unemployment has risen to 6.5%
and is expected to hit 8% by next year, if not higher. Some economists predict that gross domestic product
will shrink at a 5% annual pace in the fourth quarter and perhaps 3% or 4% in the first three months of next
year as a result of a squelching of credit by banks and a crushing plunge in consumer spending. Those factors
have convinced Obama that if he is going to have any sort of presidency worth its name, he must take
decisive action now. "With our economy in distress," Obama said, "we cannot hesitate, and we cannot
delay."Even so, a recession is under way. The goal now, said economist and Obama aide Austan Goolsbee, is
to prevent a depression. Obama also sees in the current mess a rare confluence of both crisis and opportunity
that gives him the chance to remake the U.S. economy. After months in which members of his own party
wondered how Obama could keep all his promises in a single term, he is now setting the stage to attempt far
more in his first year in office than seemed likely just a month ago. "We're coming in," noted Goolsbee,
"with a bang."
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Impact: Obama Stimulus Prevents Depression
Obama’s stimulus plan will create jobs and improve America’s competitiveness.
Digital Journal December 6, 2008
Obama pledges to renew information superhighway
Dec. 6, 2008 (Digital Journal delivered by Newstex) -- Obama promised that he and his economic team will
develop a comprehensive economic recovery plan that will create at least 2.5 million jobs. One part of the
plan will be to improve broadband connections across the U.S.Bush responded to the news of 553,000 jobs
lost by saying oewe are in a recession, while President-elect Barack Obama came up with a broad economy
recovery plan to eliminate it. Obama outlined his plans to create jobs in his weekly speech to the public.He
said the investment in schools, renewable energy, public infrastructure and broadband connections will be
the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway
system in the 1950s. There will be broad effort to modernize and upgrade schools, make energy-efficient
buildings and improve highways. All these efforts will create new jobs and save billions in taxpayers money
and make America more competitive in the world. Regarding the Internet status of the U.S., Obama is
dismayed that the United States ranks 15th in the world in broadband adoption. He said in his speech (see the
video in this article):Here, in the country that invented the internet, every child should have the chance to get
online, and theyll get that chance when Im President " because thats how well strengthen Americas
competitiveness in the world.Obama also wants to help libraries, schools and hospitals get connected to the
Internet to make them more efficient.These are just a few parts of his economic recovery plan, which will be
unveiled fully when Congress reconvenes in January. Obama said this plan will help create million of jobs.
We need to act with the urgency this moment demands to save or create at least two and a half million jobs
so that the nearly two million Americans whove lost them know that they have a future. And thats exactly
what I intend to do as President of the United States.You can see the full transcript of Obamas speech at
Change.gov. Newstex ID: DIJO-0001-30194489
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Impact: Economy Key to American Way of Life
A strong economy is needed to create a better America. Employed Americans are more tolerant and better
democratic citizens. An economic collapse could ruin our way of life.
Benjamin M. Friedman, Maier professor of political economy. Harvard Magazine Jan-Feb 2004
http://www.harvardmagazine.com/on-line/010449.html
In the end, the most fundamental threat that the president's big-deficit policy poses is not to the U.S. economy but
to the character of American society. Countries where living standards for the majority of citizens improve over
sustained periods of time are more likely to seek and preserve an open, mobile, tolerant society and to strengthen
their democratic institutions. Countries where living standards stagnate, or even erode, instead mostly tend toward
rigidity and intolerance, and their democracy weakens. The United States is no exception. Living standards have
improved over most of our country's history, and over time our society has become more open and tolerant and our
democracy has broadened and strengthened. But even in America these basic values are at risk when our living
standards stagnate. Median U.S. family income showed virtually no increase, beyond inflation, from the early
1970s to the early 1990s. Much of what happened during that time—the rise of the "militia" movement, the wave
of ugly xenophobia, the open retreat from generosity toward our own most disadvantaged citizens—was the
predictable pathology of a society whose citizens knew they weren't getting ahead.
US economic success is key for overall American success and a reduction of class friction
USInfo.State.Gov Feb 2001
An Outline of the US economy http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/oecon/chap11.htm
Economic success breeds other issues, however. One of the most vexing concerns facing the American public
today is growth. Economic growth has been central to America's success. As the economic pie has grown, new
generations have had a chance to carve a slice for themselves. Indeed, economic growth and the opportunities it
brings have helped keep class friction in the United States Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on
Foreign Relations, March/April 2004, “America’s Sticky Power”, Foreign at a minimum.
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Access to energy is critical for quality of life, economic and technological growth.
Former Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham The Washington Times April 3, 2008
Greener energy; Exploit the pillars of nuclear power
We live in a modern energy age. But imagine a world without the Internet, cell phones or cable. Imagine if we had to
return to that world where we couldn't go straight to Google or instantly reach out to family across the country a world
without access to technology at our fingertips. It is our access to energy that allows us to make such innovative strides in
technology, to grow our economy and to improve our population's standard of living.
Cheap energy is key to the American way of life.
Iain Murray, senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, National Review August 18, 2003
As the great blackouts of last week proved, we live in an electric society. We live for the most part under electric light;
many of us work on devices that convert electrical signals into readable text. A large number, especially in New York
City, get to and from work in vehicles powered by electricity. On the hot days of summer, we rely on electrical air
conditioning to make our workplaces viable. We prevent food-borne disease by refrigerating our food electrically. As
New York's experience showed, without electric power we virtually cease any and all economic activity. Our wealth and
our well-being depend to a large extent on our continued access to affordable and abundant energy.
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Economic growth and competitiveness are the backbone of US hegemony
Zalmay Khalilzad, US Ambassador to the UN and formerly to Afghanistan and Iraq, former Director of the
Strategy, Doctrine, and Force Structure at the RAND Corporation, Spring “Losing the Moment? The United States
and the World After the Cold War”, The Washington Quarterly 1995 Vol.18, No.2, p.84
The United States is unlikely to preserve its military and technological dominance if the U.S. economy declines
seriously. In such an environment, the domestic economic and political base for global leadership would
diminish and the United States would probably incrementally withdraw from the world, become inwardlooking, and abandon more and more of its external interests. As the United States weakened, others would try
to fill the Vacuum. To sustain and improve its economic strength, the United States must maintain its
technological lead in the economic realm. Its success will depend on the choices it makes. In the past,
developments such as the agricultural and industrial revolutions produced fundamental changes positively
affecting the relative position of those who were able to take advantage of them and negatively affecting those
who did not. Some argue that the world may be at the beginning of another such transformation, which will
shift the sources of wealth and the relative position of classes and nations. If the United States fails to recognize
the change and adapt its institutions, its relative position will necessarily worsen. To remain the preponderant
world power, U.S. economic strength must be enhanced by further improvements in productivity, thus
increasing real per capita income; by strengthening education and training; and by generating and using superior
science and technology. In the long run the economic future of the United States will also be affected by two
other factors. One is the imbalance between government revenues and government expenditure. As a society the
United States has to decide what part of the GNP it wishes the government to control and adjust expenditures
and taxation accordingly. The second, which is even more important to U.S. economic wall-being over the long
run, may be the overall rate of investment. Although their government cannot endow Americans with a
Japanese-style propensity to save, it can use tax policy to raise the savings rate.
US hegemony is key to preventing nuclear war
Zalmay Khalilzad, US Ambassador to the UN and formerly to Afghanistan and Iraq, former Director of the
Strategy, Doctrine, and Force Structure at the RAND Corporation, Spring “Losing the Moment? The United States
and the World After the Cold War”, The Washington Quarterly 1995 Vol.18, No.2, p.84
Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a
global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding
principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United
States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more
open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a
world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear
proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts. Finally, U.S. leadership
would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid
another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange. U.S.
leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance of power
system.
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To effectively lead the globe and push towards an internationally improved standard of living the US needs a
strong economy.
Ronald M. Bosrock, Chair of Management at St. John's University and, founder and director of the Global
Institute, Star-Tribune, October 25, 2004
Meanwhile, our deficit has affected the economies of many of our friends, allies and trading partners in the
developing world. The World Economic Outlook for 2004, produced and published by the International Monetary
Fund, points out that since midyear 2000, the U.S. economy weakened significantly because of one of the largest
stock market declines in recent years, the 9/11 attacks, corporate failures and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. So
how does all this damage our global leadership? Because U.S. leadership has always come in two parts. Since the
end of World War II, we have
become the world's premier military power; most of our potential enemies knew better than to challenge us on
purely military power. But the second part of our leadership formula, and I would argue the more dynamic part, has
come from the fact that we have built an economy that has provided our citizens with a standard of living most of
the world can only dream of. But dream they do. And historically citizens of developing countries have looked to
the United States to keep that dream alive for all to pursue. When people have something to hope for -- a better life
for themselves and their children -- that hope provides an alternative to the violence that often follows despair. The
U.S. economy has been a beacon of hope for developing nations. If the United States is to continue this leadership
role, we must reduce the deficit and it's impact on the rest of the world much sooner than anyone seems interested
in doing. The IMF confirms that world economic contraction over the next 15 years will fall on the shoulders of the
United States, whose deficit could have several negative effects on the world economy. For example, rising U.S.
interest rates will shift investments earmarked for many developing countries to the United States. In addition, the
dollar will weaken, slowing our consumption of foreign-produced goods. The IMF says the U.S. deficit could be
reduced more dramatically if spending were reduced and taxes increased. The United States went to war with Iraq
recognizing that we would be going it alone for the most part. But the deficit did not issue from that action alone.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that two-thirds of the deficit comes as a result of the Bush tax breaks
passed in 2001 and 2003. When our military involvement in Iraq ends, we will again turn our sights back to the
interrelated world we are a part of. In the end, our economic power will provide the best hope for developing
nations.
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US economic collapse will cause other nations to collapse
Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign
Relations, March/April 2004, “America’s Sticky Power”, Foreign Policy [lexis] (Victor)
Similarly, in the last 60 years, as foreigners have acquired a greater value in the United States-government and
private bonds, direct and portfolio private investments-more and more of them have acquired an interest in
maintaining the strength of the U.S.-led system. A collapse of the U.S. economy and the ruin of the dollar
would do more than dent the prosperity of the United States. Without their best customer, countries including
China and Japan would fall into depressions. The financial strength of every country would be severely shaken
should the United States collapse. Under those circumstances, debt becomes a strength, not a weakness, and
other countries fear to break with the United States because they need its market and own its securities. Of
course, pressed too far, a large national debt can turn from a source of strength to a crippling liability, and the
United States must continue to justify other countries' faith by maintaining its long-term record of meeting its
financial obligations. But, like Samson in the temple of the Philistines, a collapsing U.S. economy would inflict
enormous, unacceptable damage on the rest of the world. That is sticky power with a vengeance.
U.S. recession spills over to Other Economies
South China Morning Post, 3/28/07 [“ Why Asia cannot decouple form US”. Lexis]
Today, few economists in this part of the world are bothered by the prospect of a US slump. They draw comfort
from data showing a sharp rise in trade between Asian countries in recent years (see chart) and conclude that
regional economies have become better able to stand on their own two feet. Unfortunately, a new study by the
Asian Development Bank pours cold water on the idea of Asian economic independence. Although intra-regional
trade has indeed risen enormously, the ADB concludes the increase has been driven largely by multinational firms
shipping components from one Asian country to another for assembly before re-exporting these to the rich world.
According to the ADB's calculations, 79 per cent of Asian exports are still driven by final demand from outside the
region, mostly from the US and Europe. With exports making up on average 55 per cent of East Asian economies'
gross domestic product, "the region is still vulnerable to external demand shocks", the ADB warns Worse - not
only would demand for Asian exports be hammered by a recession in the US, foreign direct investment in the
region would also dwindle, further undermining local growth
US ECONOMIC DOWNTURN WILL CAUSE WORLDWIDE DEPRESSION
Financial Post 1999 April 3, 1999 Date accessed 7/26/2006
This year, eight economies will be in recession, two in depression. But all should be growing again in the second
half of next year, he predicts. Asia is moving toward the beginnings of recovery and is no longer in crisis, in Mr.
Sinai's view. South Korea has turned around, from depression to modest growth. Japan seems past the worst,
judging by its stock market revival. However, if the U.S. economy falters seriously, so will the fledgling
recoveries, Mr. Sinai warns. Asian growth would be stymied. China might devalue, causing new problems for
the region. Europe could go into recession. Canada's growth, heavily dependent on exports to the U.S., would
disappear. Latin America would fall into depression. All this could lead to financial market collapse, and
perhaps a world depression. 'The odds on this are not zero,' Mr. Sinai says.
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THE U.S ECONOMY IS KEY TO THE WORLD ECONOMY.
Michael ROBERTS, Writer, 2K3 “The World Economy After Iraq”, April 27, accessed @
http://www.marxist.com/Economy/world_econ_afteriraq.html via google on 7/26/06]
And the US is the key to the world economy. If the US catches a cold, then the rest of the world will catch Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Already European business surveys point to an economy that is teetering on
recession, while Japan's industry remains deep in a stagnant pool. The Japanese stock market is now at a 20-year
low!
US is key to global growth
AFX EUROPEAN FOCUS 2002 April 16, 2002, Date accessed 7/26/2006
He said the US is again acting as the main engine of global growth. "The US is leading the recovery and I think
that is likely to be the case for the duration of this recovery. It is in the interests of the entire world to see Europe
and Japan growing at potential," he said.
The US is key to the world economy – deficit, trade protectionism, or dollar crash would radically reverse
global markets
Fred C. Bergsten, Institute for International Economics, 9/9/04, “The risks ahead for the World Economy”, The
Economist (Geoff)
Five major risks threaten the world economy. Three center on the United States: renewed sharp increases in the
current account deficit leading to a crash of the dollar, a budget profile that is out of control, and an outbreak of
trade protectionism. A fourth relates to China, which faces a possible hard landing from its recent overheating.
The fifth is that oil prices could rise to $60 to $70 per barrel even without a major political or terrorist
disruption, and much higher with one. Most of these risks reinforce each other. A further oil shock, a dollar
collapse, and a soaring American budget deficit would all generate much higher inflation and interest rates. A
sharp dollar decline would increase the likelihood of further oil price rises. Larger budget deficits will produce
larger American trade deficits and this more protectionism and dollar vulnerability. Realization of any one of
the five risks could substantially reduce world growth. If two or three, let alone all five, were to occur in
combination then they would radically reverse the global outlook.
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Economic collapse will cause a global war
Walter Russel Mead , fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, 1992 New perspectives quarterly, summer pp. 28
But what if it can't? What if the global economy stagnates - or even shrinks? In that case, we will face a new period
of international conflict: South against North, rich against poor. Russia, China, India - these countries with their
billions of people and their nuclear weapons will pose a much greater danger to world order than Germany and
Japan did in the '30s.
Economic Collapse causes extinction
Lt Col. Beardon, PhD, 2000 http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/042500%20-%20modified.htm Lt. Col
Thomas E. Bearden (retd.) PhD, MS (nuclear engineering), BS (mathematics - minor electronic engineering) Coinventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis'
Who'sWho in America, 2004 The Tom Bearden Website
From: Tom Bearden To: (Correspondent) Subj:
Zero-Point Energy Date: Original Tue, 25 Apr 2000 12:36:29 -0500 Modified and somewhat updated Dec. 29,
2000.
Just prior to the terrible collapse of the World economy, with the crumbling well underway and rising, it is
inevitable that some of the weapons of mass destruction will be used by one or more nations on others. An
interesting result then—as all the old strategic studies used to show—is that everyone will fire everything as fast as
possible against their perceived enemies. The reason is simple: When the mass destruction weapons are unleashed
at all, the only chance a nation has to survive is to desperately try to destroy its perceived enemies before they
destroy it. So there will erupt a spasmodic unleashing of the long range missiles, nuclear arsenals, and biological
warfare arsenals of the nations as they feel the economic collapse, poverty, death, misery, etc. a bit earlier. The
ensuing holocaust is certain to immediately draw in the major nations also, and literally a hell on earth will result.
In short, we will get the great Armageddon we have been fearing since the advent of the nuclear genie. Right now,
my personal estimate is that we have about a 99% chance of that scenario or some modified version of it, resulting.
Economic depression kills through food prices, outweighing war
Ellwood 03 Charles Ellwood, University of Missouri. "Sociology and Modern Social Problems"
http://www.nalanda.nitc.ac.in/resources/english/etext-project/sociology/sociology/chapter9.html
As already implied, then, economic depression exercises a very considerable influence upon death rate, particularly
when economic depression causes very high prices for the necessities of life and even widespread scarcity of food.
This cause produces far more deaths in modern nations than war. The doubling of the price of bread in any
civilized country would be a far greater calamity than a great war. While modern civilized peoples fear famine but
little, there are many classes in the great industrial nations that live upon such a narrow margin of existence that the
slightest increase in the cost of the necessities of life means practically the same as a famine to these classes.
Statistics, therefore, of all modern countries, and particularly of all great cities, show an enormous increase in
sickness and death among the poorer classes in times of economic depression.
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Economic stagnation kills hegemony and causes massive power wars
Jeffrey Nyquist, regular geopolitical columnist for Financial Sense and WorldNetDaily and expert in foreign
policy and geopolitics, 2/4/05, “The Political Consequences of a Financial Crash”, Financial Sense,
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2005/0204.html (Victor)
Should the United States experience a severe economic contraction during the second term of President Bush,
the American people will likely support politicians who advocate further restrictions and controls on our market
economy – guaranteeing its strangulation and the steady pauperization of the country. In Congress today, Sen.
Edward Kennedy supports nearly all the economic dogmas listed above. It is easy to see, therefore, that the
coming economic contraction, due in part to a policy of massive credit expansion, will have serious political
consequences for the Republican Party (to the benefit of the Democrats). Furthermore, an economic contraction
will encourage the formation of anti-capitalist majorities and a turning away from the free market system.
The danger here is not merely economic. The political left openly favors the collapse of America’s strategic
position abroad. The withdrawal of the United States from the Middle East, the Far East and Europe would
catastrophically impact an international system that presently allows 6 billion people to live on the earth’s
surface in relative peace. Should anti-capitalist dogmas overwhelm the global market and trading system that
evolved under American leadership, the planet’s economy would contract and untold millions would die of
starvation. Nationalistic totalitarianism, fueled by a politics of blame, would once again bring war to Asia and
Europe. But this time the war would be waged with mass destruction weapons and the United States would be
blamed because it is the center of global capitalism. Furthermore, if the anti-capitalist party gains power in
Washington, we can expect to see policies of appeasement and unilateral disarmament enacted.
American appeasement and disarmament, in this context, would be an admission of guilt before the court of world
opinion. Russia and China, above all, would exploit this admission to justify aggressive wars, invasions and mass
destruction attacks. A future financial crash, therefore, must be prevented at all costs. B
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Global recession will cause ethnic wars, famine, protectionism, reversal of globalization trade and tech, and
arms trafficking
Bernardo V. Lopez, freelance journalist and frequent author on international issues, 9/10/98, “Global
recession phase two: catastrophic”, BusinessWorld [lexis]
What would it be like if global recession becomes full bloom? The results will be catastrophic. Certainly, global
recession will spawn wars of all kinds. Ethnic wars can easily escalate in the grapple for dwindling food stocks as in
India-Pakistan-Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Indonesia. Regional conflicts in key flashpoints can easily
erupt such as in the Middle East, Korea, and Taiwan. In the Philippines, as in some Latin American countries,
splintered insurgency forces may take advantage of the economic drought to regroup and reemerge in the
countryside. Unemployment worldwide will be in the billions. Famine can be triggered in key Third World nations
with India, North Korea, Ethiopia and other African countries as first candidates. Food riots and the breakdown of
law and order are possibilities. Global recession will see the deferment of globalization, the shrinking of international
trade - especially of high-technology commodities such as in the computer, telecommunications, electronic and
automotive industries. There will be a return to basics with food security being a prime concern of all governments,
over industrialization and trade expansions. Protectionism will reemerge and trade liberalization will suffer a big
setback. The WTO-GATT may have to redefine its provisions to adjust to the changing times. Even the World BankIMF consortium will experience continued crisis in dealing with financial hemorrhages. There will not be enough
funds to rescue ailing economies. A few will get a windfall from the disaster with the erratic movement in world
prices of basic goods. But the majority, especially the small and medium enterprises (SMEs), will suffer serious
shrinkage. Mega-mergers and acquisitions will rock the corporate landscape. Capital markets will shrink and credit
crisis and spiralling interest rates will spread internationally. And environmental advocacy will be shelved in the
name of survival. Domestic markets will flourish but only on basic commodities. The focus of enterprise will shift
into basic goods in the medium term. Agrarian economies are at an advantage since they are the food producers.
Highly industrialized nations will be more affected by the recession. Technologies will concentrate on servicing
domestic markets and the agrarian economy will be the first to regrow. The setback on research and development and
high-end technologies will be compensated in its eventual focus on agrarian activity. A return to the rural areas will
decongest the big cities and the ensuing real estate glut will send prices tumbling down. Tourism and travel will
regress by a decade and airlines worldwide will need rescue. Among the indigenous communities and agrarian
peasantry, many will shift back to prehistoric subsistence economy. But there will be a more crowded upland
situation as lowlanders seek more lands for production. The current crisis for land of indigenous communities will
worsen. Land conflicts will increase with the indigenous communities who have nowhere else to go either being
massacred in armed conflicts or dying of starvation. Backyard gardens will be precious and home-based food
production will flourish. As unemployment expands, labor will shift to self-reliant microenterprises if the little
capital available can be sourced. In the past, the US could afford amnesty for millions of illegal migrants because of
its resilient economy. But with unemployment increasing, the US will be forced to clamp down on a reemerging
illegal migration which will increase rapidly. Unemployment in the US will be the hardest to cope with since it may
have very little capability for subsistence economy and its agrarian base is automated and controlled by a few. The
riots and looting of stores in New York City in the late '70s because of a state-wide brownout hint of the type of
anarchy in the cities. Such looting in this most affluent nation is not impossible. The weapons industry may also
grow rapidly because of the ensuing wars. Arms escalation will have primacy over food production if wars escalate.
The US will depend increasingly on weapons exports to nurse its economy back to health. This will further induce
wars and conflicts which will aggravate US recession rather than solve it. The US may depend more and more on the
use of force and its superiority to get its ways internationally.
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Aff Answer: General
The impacts of the case outweigh their disadvantage. To get to their impact too many intervening
factors could occur between now and January 20th. Our case impacts are specific and immediate.
Obama will not be tied to the plan. President Bush will pass the plan and there is no reason Obama
would get involved.
The plan will not consume any of Obama’s focus or political capital. The plan passes immediately,
which means that it does not require lobbying or attention from anyone, it simply becomes law.
Obama has the political capital to steam roll opponents. This means our little plan couldn’t possibly
derail his political capital.
In These Times December, 2008
MANDATE FOR CHANCE; Voters' message to Obama: Think big
While the party gained in strength, it lost a GOP scapegoat that once justified Democratic hyper-caution
(read: inaction). On the huge issues -- whether re-regulating Wall Street, reforming trade, solving the
healthcare emergency or ending the Iraq War -- America demands success, and Democrats in 2009 will have
no one to blame for failure but themselves. After all, with 349 electoral votes (as In These Times went to
press), a President Obama cannot credibly claim he lacks the political capital to legislatively steam-roll a
humiliated Republican Party and its remaining senators.
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Newest evidence confirms economic growth doesn’t stop war
Niall Ferguson, Harvard Professor Foreign Affairs Oct 6, 06
It might have been expected that such prosperity would eliminate the causes of war. But much of the worst
violence of the twentieth century involved the relatively wealthy countries at the opposite ends of Eurasia.
The chief lesson of the twentieth century is that countries can provide their citizens with wealth, longevity,
literacy, and even democracy but still descend into lethal conflict. Leon Trotsky nicely summed up the
paradox when reflecting on the First Balkan War of 1912-13, which he covered as a reporter. The conflict,
Trotsky wrote, "shows that we still haven't crawled out on all fours from the barbaric stage of our history.
We have learned to wear suspenders, to write clever editorials, and to make chocolate milk, but when we
have to decide seriously a question of the coexistence of a few tribes on a rich peninsula of Europe, we are
helpless to find a way other than mutual mass slaughter." Trotsky later made his own contribution to the
history of mass slaughter as the people's commissar for war and as the commander of the Red Army during
the Russian Civil War.
Economic decline doesn’t cause war
Niall Ferguson, Harvard Professor Foreign Affairs Oct 6, 06
Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal chain in modern
historiography links the Great Depression to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of World War II. But that
simple story leaves too much out. Nazi Germany started the war in Europe only after its economy had
recovered. Not all the countries affected by the Great Depression were taken over by fascist regimes, nor did
all such regimes start wars of aggression. In fact, no general relationship between economics and conflict is
discernible for the century as a whole. Some wars came after periods of growth, others were the causes rather
than the consequences of economic catastrophe, and some severe economic crises were not followed by wars.
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The US economy resilient
Kevin L. Kliesen, Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 2006 (“Despite
Setbacks, the U.S. Economy Steams Forward”,
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3678/is_200601/ai_n17170028)
Through it all, the economy has exhibited extraordinary resilience, experiencing only a relatively minor
recession in 2001 and only a moderate recovery over the next year or so. But since mid-2003, real GDP has
increased at a little more than a 4 percent annual rate. This rate is about one percentage point higher than the
Congressional Budget Office's estimate of potential real GDP growth but a bit lower than other estimates.
With actual growth exceeding potential growth, the unemployment rate has fallen to 5 percent (as of
November 2005) and the manufacturing capacity utilization rate in October rose to its highest level in five
years. The U.S. economy's resilience reflects two key developments. First, growth of labor productivity
(output per hour in the nonfarm business sector) remains historically elevated. Over the past five years, labor
productivity has increased at a brisk 3.4 percent annual rate, far above the 50-year average growth of 2.2
percent. second, financial markets and the business community are confident that the Federal Reserve
will keep inflation low and stable. This credibility not only reduces risk premiums that are embedded in
interest rates, but it enables the Fed to offset potentially damaging economic disturbances without the
markets calling into question its inflation-fighting bona fides. As long as long-term inflation
expectations remain low and stable and labor productivity growth stays strong, the economy should
continue to grow at or slightly above its estimated potential rate of growth in 2006. Economic activity in
2006 should also receive a boost from the rebuilding efforts in the Gulf Coast and, hopefully, from the
absence of further large increases in crude oil and natural gas prices. The rebuilding and relative stability in
energy prices would help boost business investment and help produce a more moderate headline inflation
rate in 2006. The end result would be an improvement in household purchasing power. With this outcome,
the economy in 2006 should add jobs at a rate of about 150,00 to 175,000 per month.
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Growth leads to structural violence that outweighs nuclear war
Mumia Abu-Jamal, political activist Quiet Dead Daily 98
(http://www.flashpoints.net/mQuietDeadlyViolence.html)
We live, equally immersed, and to a deeper degree, in a nation that condones and ignores wide-ranging
"structural' violence, of a kind that destroys human life with a breathtaking ruthlessness. Former
Massachusetts prison official and writer, Dr. James Gilligan observes;
By "structural violence" I mean the increased rates of death and disability suffered by those who occupy the
bottom rungs of society, as contrasted by those who are above them. Those excess deaths (or at least a
demonstrably large proportion of them) are a function of the class structure; and that structure is itself a
product of society's collective human choices, concerning how to distribute the collective wealth of the
society. These are not acts of God. I am contrasting "structural" with "behavioral violence" by which I mean
the non-natural deaths and injuries that are caused by specific behavioral actions of individuals against
individuals, such as the deaths we attribute to homicide, suicide, soldiers in warfare, capital punishment, and
so on. --(Gilligan, J., MD, Violence: Reflections On a National Epidemic (New York: Vintage, 1996), 192.)
This form of violence, not covered b any of the majoritarian, corporate, ruling-class protected media, is
invisible to us and because of its invisibility, all the more insidious. How dangerous is it--really? Gilligan
notes: [E]very fifteen years, on the average, as many people die because of relative poverty as would be
killed in a nuclear war that caused 232 million deaths; and every single year, two to three times as many
people die from poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year
period. This is, in effect, the equivalent of an ongoing, unending, in fact accelerating, thermonuclear war, or
genocide on the weak and poor every year of every decade, throughout the world
Economic growth causes environment degradation making environmental regulations irrelevant.
Douglas E. Booth, professor of economics at Marquette University, 1995 (“Economic Growth and the
Limits of Environmental Regulation: A Social Economic Analysis”, Review of Social Economy, Vol. 54)
After a quarter century of environmental regulation in this country under the auspices of the
Environmental Protection Agency and other government agencies, significant environmental threats
remain. Ambient standards for ozone and other air pollutants are frequently violated in urban areas,
lakes and rivers continue to be heavily polluted, groundwater is increasingly threatened with
contamination, ambient levels of toxic chemicals in the biotic food chain are at high levels, little has
been done about the potentially serious problem of greenhouse warming, and biodiversity is
threatened as a consequence of reduced and fragmented natural habitats. Why has the regulatory
system failed to fully address our environmental problems? The goal of this paper is to suggest that the roots
of environmental problems, and the failure of environmental regulation, are deeply embedded in the
processes that generate economic growth. The logic of the argument to be presented will take the
following form: long-run economic growth relies on the creation of new industries and new forms of
economic activity; these new forms of economic activity create new kinds of environmental problems;
and new forms of economic activity constitute vested political interests that oppose environmental
regulation. Each of the three main sections of the
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