Chapter 2 – Current Events
‘In my crystal ball I see: Faith Popcorn on tomorrow’s consumers ’
LEAD STORY-DATELINE: The Australian Magazine, February 16 - 17, 2001
Who is Faith Popcorn and why do companies like McDonald’s, IBM and American Express fight to
employ her? Faith Popcorn is a trend forecaster, and one with a 95% accuracy rate in an industry
where most players aren’t in business long enough for accuracy rates to be calculated. She’s the
one who forecasted the success of four-wheel drive vehicles and the failure of New Coke. She was
also the first to identify ‘cocooning’, the stay-at-home trend that fuelled the growth in home
delivery, home business, home shopping, boutique ice cream and VCRs.
So how does she do it? Popcorn’s methods are ‘suitably futuristic’ according to Richard Johnson of
The Australian Magazine. They range from ‘hypnotrend probes’ where volunteers are regressed
under hypnosis to using her spiritual ‘Third Eye’ which she equates to ‘being in the present but
seeing from the future’. She also consults widely with experts as diverse as Indian chiefs,
microbiologists, organic farmers and homemaking guru Martha Stewart. Critics say she is stating
the blindingly obvious and that her sole contribution is cutsey names like ‘cocooning’. But the
Fortune 500 companies who hire her company BrainReserve would disagree. So too would the
legion of fans who have purchased her four books. The fact that these books have been translated
into 14 languages should be enough to dispel the criticism that her predictions are exclusively
American.
So what does Popcorn see in her crystal ball? She has isolated the following seventeen consumer
trends:
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99 LIVES: the search for ways to take back our personal time and avoid over-scheduling
ANCHORING: the quest to find our spiritual roots to prepare for the future
ATMOSFEAR: pollution of the air and water making us fear for our safety
BEING ALIVE: good health which means a longer life
CASHING OUT: opting out in search of a simpler, more fulfilling life
CLANNING: the need to belong to a like-minded group with shared ideas
COCOONING: seeking protection from the outside world
DOWN-AGEING: seeking comfort in the things we did as children
EGONOMICS: wanting businesses to recognize our individuality
EVE-OLUTION: the need for companies to market separately to the sexes
FANTASY ADVENTURE: exploring the unknown from the comfort of our own homes
FUTURETENSE: major anxieties coming from the speed of change, fear of the future and
broken promises of advancements
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ICON TOPPLING: rejection of government, big business, medicine or religion
PLEASURE REVENGE: rejection of political correctness with a return to the pursuit of
pleasure
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SOS [Save our Society]: rediscovery of a social conscience
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SMALL INDULGENCES: using affordable little luxuries to combat stress
VIGILANTE CONSUMERISM: consumers manipulating the marketplace through protest
and politics
According to Popcorn, you cannot look for a trend, they just appear. ‘Anchoring’ appeared first in a
supermarket where Popcorn noticed Glade’s vanilla scented candle. She then noticed that Billy
Graham’s book Just As I Am was on the bestseller list, Touched by an Angel was a popular
television show and spiritual bookstores were making three times more than normal bookstores.
This observed spiritual renaissance was sufficiently strong and pervasive enough for Popcorn to
consider it a trend.
‘Eve-olution’ grew out of the fact that women in the US own 53% of the stock, purchase 50% of
the PC s and own 33% of all firms, estimated to grow to 40% by 2005. Few companies however
consciously develop marketing strategies specifically for women. Popcorn herself has ‘Eveolutionized’ Jiffy Lube, America’s leading quick oil-change franchise. Her research indicated that
women, who were increasingly the ones getting the oil changed, found Jiffy Lube an intimidating
place where mechanics’ shouting ‘woke up the baby’. Jiffy Lube mechanics now wear Madonnastyle microphones so that they can talk to each other directly, the waiting rooms are clean, there
are toys for the kids, the toilet seat is down and pinup calendars with scantily clad models no
longer adorn the walls.
Popcorn does not just identify trends and pass this information on to other businesses. She also
takes advantage of the trends. When she released her EVEolved desk which is higher than normal
to allow for crossing of legs, has a built in vase, a place for earrings when the occupant is on the
phone and a companion children’s desk, sales exceeded forecasts by 500%. Next on the cards is a
Cocooning Chair - a heated recliner with a shorter seat because women get up and down more
than men.
TALKING IT OVER AND THINKING IT THROUGH
1.
Have you seen evidence of Australian marketers tapping into Popcorn’s 17 consumer
trends? Identify the specific product or service and the trend. For example, the Brita
company has capitalized on the ATMOSFEAR trend by recently introducing a portable
water bottle with filter to complement their on-tap and water jug filters.
2.
How could a company like McDonald’s use the 17 trends in their marketing strategies? Be
specific.
3.
What types of companies do you think could benefit from investigating the DOWNAGEING, BEING ALIVE, 99 LIVES and FANTASY ADVENTURE trends? Discuss how each
trend would impact on their marketing strategies.
4.
Do you think political parties should be concerned about the ICON TOPPLING and SOS
trends? If so, why; if not why not? If you believe they should be concerned, what specific
policy platforms might they adopt?
THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE!
Form a discussion group of family and friends. Select one trend that you believe marketers have
not yet acknowledged. Create a product that you believe is consistent with the trend and monitor
the marketplace to see if the product eventually appears. Select one trend that you believe astute
marketers have acknowledged and the product/service that you believe is consistent with the
trend. Monitor the marketplace to see how long it is before competition intensifies signifying that
other marketers have also acknowledged the trend. Select one trend that you believe is ‘on its way
out’. Monitor the marketplace to see if in fact products consistent with the trend are eventually
phased out.
DIGGING DEEPER!
Do you think that countries develop their own unique trends consistent with their own economic,
political, social and technological realities and core cultural values? For example, do you think that
there are trends that are uniquely Australian, American, British, Canadian, Chinese or Indian that
would be in evidence only in those individual countries? Do you believe that countries with similar
[although not identical] economic, political, social and technological realities and core cultural
values such as Canada and Australia or Australia and the UK would develop similar trends? Do you
believe that economic, political, nological realities or core cultural values have more impact on the
development of trends?
SOURCE: Richard Johnson, ‘The Future Broker’, The Australian Magazine, February 16 - 17,
2001, pp. 26 - 29
Jan Charbonneau