Could an Indications & Warning System for Genocide Been Used In
Rwanda?
Background
On April 6th 1994, a plane, carrying the Presidents of Rwanda and Burundi, was hit by a
ground to air missile, just as it was nearing Kigali Airport. The plane exploded, and all
passengers on board were killed. The two Presidents had been returning from a meeting
of the Organization of African Unity in Dar es Salaam. 1.
Within half an hour of the crash, and before any public announcement, government
security forces and militias threw up roadblocks, around Kigali, and began an orgy of
selective killing. The speed, with which the Rwandan army, militias, and ordinary
citizens started killing suggests the plane crash, and the violence, had been part of a
highly organized plan.
In the first week of violence an estimated 20,000 people were killed in Kigali alone. In
all, 700,000 Rwandan civilians were slain throughout the country by fellow Rwandans in
just three months. By June, members of the Hutu majority, who were about 80% of the
7.5 million population, had murdered one tenth of an unarmed Tutsi minority who made
up 15% of the population. Tutsis were killed mostly with machetes, nail studded clubs
and the peasant farmers hoe known as a “panga”. Though government soldiers and
militias were heavily involved in selective killing of targeted individuals, the actual
killers were, by and large, neighbors and friends who were well known to the Tutsi
victims. Pastors, in this predominately Christian country, killed their parishioners,
doctors killed patients, and school principles watched as organized Hutu militias culled
out Tutsi students and executed them in front of their Hutu classmates. Tutsis who had
married into Hutu families were killed by in-laws, as were Tutsi workers killed by fellow
Hutus in their places of business. In panic, many Tutsi left their children with Hutu
relatives hoping that the relatives would protect the children by claiming them as their
own. When confronted by killing militias, the relatives turned the Tutsi children over for
execution.
The genocide was not, as the western media had first reported, the spontaneous
unleashing of ancient hatreds, between two Rwandan “bush tribes”. The genocide was
planned by an organized by a highly sophisticated, central government that utilized the
state apparatus to meticulously orchestrate and implement the destruction of an
indigenous ethnic group. It was genocide, pure and simple.
In late 1990 the Hutu government had adopted a policy to murder the entire Tutsi
minority, over 1 million people. Hutu leaders, who had dominated Rwandan life, since
the early 1970's, feared a loss of power and control. The Hutu ruling party, the National
Revolutionary Movement for Development (MRND) could not imagine power sharing
with the Tutsi. 2. In the days following April 6th , and for the next three months, state
sponsored killing of Tutsi was rampant. The horrific events stunned the world. Since the
spring of 1994 the world community has asked why something could not have been done
to prevent the wanton killing of so many innocent people.
Indications & Warning for Genocide
Had the world community, through the United Nations Secretariat, had sufficient
warning, prior to April 6th, that tens of thousands of Rwandan Tutis were going to be
killed, would the UN Security Council have ordered an immediate military intervention,
with a specific mandate, to prevent the genocide? Could for example, the U.S. Defense
Indications and Warning System for Instability and Low Intensity Conflict, used by the
U.S. Intelligence Community, have provided accurate information to the UN Security
Council, in time, to justify an effective UN response? I believe the answer is yes. The
U.S. Defense I& Warning System for Instability and Low Intensity Conflict, using a
carefully crafted list of Generic Indicators, specifically written for genocide, as defined
by UN Resolution 260A(III), could have produced a useful warning product. 3.
The Defense I&W System for Instability and Low Intensity Conflict, has provided and
continues to provide warning information to U.S. and SFOR commanders and decisionmakers regarding the uncertainties associated with political instability, unrest, civil war,
and possible genocide in the former Yugoslavia. The Defense I&W System is able to
provide a structure and methodology to produce timely and accurate “warning” able to
assist commanders and decision makers to deter or diffuse a crisis before it occurs. The
I&W methodology in addition to force protection, has the potential to reduce political,
economic and in some cases military costs to the U.S. The system methodology if
applied, in the case of Rwanda, could have identified and monitored preliminary events
that were expected to indicate, with strong probability, that genocidal activity was
imminent. In Rwanda the preliminary events/indicators were real, observable and could
have been recognized as actions or events that would have told the analyst that the
genocide was about to occur. The methodologies of the Indications and Warning System
for Instability and Low Intensity Conflict, would have been appropriate to produce
effective and timely warning prior to the genocide. The kinds of acts, perpetrated against
Tutsi civilians, by the HUTU dominated government, between 1991 and April 6th, 1994
would have qualified as I&W high probability “Indicators”. They were acts that would
have fit the international definition of genocide. They were indeed acts committed with
intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.
RWANDAN EVENTS 1990-1994 “INDICATORS” for GENOCIDE
Militias
In 1992, Rwandan President Jovenal Habyriamana’s ruling Party, the National
Revolutionary Movement for Development (MRND) established a private paramilitary
militia called the Interahamwe, “those who work together”. The same year an extremist,
racially oriented, Hutu political party emerged. The Coalition for the Defense of the
Republic (CDR) also established an organized a militia called Impuzamugambi “those
with a single purpose”. 4.
The U.N. Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial, Summary or Arbitrary Executions Mr.
Bacre Waly Ndiaye reported, in April 1993, that both the Interahamwe and
Impuzamugambi were guilty of incitement to ethnic violence against Tutsi. They were,
he reported, guilty of massacres of the civilian populations and political assassinations.
Ndyaie believed both militias were used as a cover for “official” involvement in the
massacres of Rwandan Tutsi, which were being reported with regularity.
February 1994 - Journalist Joseph Mudatsikira from the newspaper Rwanda Rushya
reported terror in Kigali where Tutsi were killed, and their houses pillaged and destroyed.
Mudatsikira identified those responsible as the MRND and CDR militias, the
Interahamwe and Impuzamugambi.
The U.S. State Department, also reported, in early 1994, that “government militias” killed
several dozen civilians, blocked streets, searched cars and beat perceived government
opposition supporters. 5.
Death Squads
Network Zero, a clandestine “death squad” with official backing from within the
President’s inner circle, emerged in 1992. “Network Zero” was reported to have targeted
political opponents for assassination. Network Zero included members of President
Habyarimana’s entourage, and immediate family including his wife Agathe. This inner
circle was known as Akazu, “the little house”.
UN Special Rapporteur Bacre WalyNdiaye identified and reported on the existence of
Network Zero in October 1992. Ndiaye reported that these organizations were
"centrally" supported, well organized and highly structured.
Atrocities and Massacres of Tutsi
In January and February 1991 hundreds of Bagogwe, a subgroup of the Tutsi, were
murdered by militias. Human Rights Watch reported on the massacres in early 1992.
Restrictions on movement of the Bagogwe people effectively suppressed the news of the
massacres for six months. 6.
In early March 1992 members of the Interahamwe and the presidential guard, both
dressed in civilian clothes, went to the Bugesera region. During the night of March 4-5
they killed 277 Tutsi and Hutu government opposition supporters. It was reported that
over 15,00 persons were displaced by their attacks.
Comment - In late November, 1991 in the newspaper Kangura, and on Radio Rwanda,
both noted for their vitriolic hate for the Tutsi, claimed that young Tutsi from Bugesera
had left the country to join the Rwandan Patriotic Front.
1994 - 2,000 Tutis killed in the Taba region. The incident was reported but no citation.
Assassination Lists
In February 1992 Human Rights Watch reported having evidence that the Habyarimana
government had compiled hit lists identifying Tutsis and moderate Hutu's marked for
assassination.
April 1993 Mr. Jean Birara, former Governor of the Central Bank, reported to the Belgian
press, that as early as April 1993, Network Zero and the MRND, CDR militias had in
their possession prepared lists of, between 500-1,500, individuals in the Kigali area to be
killed. The existence of such lists became more evident in the months leading up to the
genocide.
January 1994 Major General Romeo Dallaire head of United Nations Assistance Mission
in Rwanda (UNAMIR) reported to the UN Security Council that he had evidence, from
informants, that lists had been drawn up naming Tutsis to be exterminated. General
Dallaire also reported having evidence that Interahamwe militias had developed the
organization and capability to kill up to 1,000 Tutsi in 20 minutes.
Special Military Training for Militias
Human Rights Watch reported in late 1993 and early 1994 large numbers of Interahamwe
and Impuzamugambi militia members were being given rigorous military training at
camps in the Mutara region, north east of Kigali. Human Rights Watch also reported in
early 1994 that additional training of militias was being conducted at the Kanombe
barracks in Kigali as well as military camps in Gabiro and in Bigogwe in the north.
Broadcasting Genocide – Hate Radio Propaganda
Radio-Television Libre des Mille Collines (RTLM) and Radio Rwanda incited genocide
by broadcasting a steady stream of racist, anti Tutsi invective as early as September 1993.
RTLM’s shrill and consistent appeal for genocide on Rwandan airwaves accelerated as
the events of April 6th approached. In the months leading up to the genocide, hate media
broadcasts made various predictions that suggested knowledge of plans and preparation
for widespread massacres by Tutsi led rebel forces. RTLM warned that there would be a
bloodbath in Rwanda. RTLM created fear among the Hutu by claiming that Ugandan
Tutsi, who were Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) rebels in the north, were either planning
or had just launched an attack. 7. RTKM wanted the Hutu to believe that the Tutsi were
going to initiate violence in all parts of the country. The illiterate rural population of
Rwanda was solely dependent on the radio for news. The easy manipulation of
information and the creating of misinformation on the air- waves had been facilitated by
broadcasting in Kinyarwanda the only language they spoke.
Comment - Before April 6th, RTLM does not appear to have explicitly called for people
to exterminate Tutsi civilians. The radio station did indirectly and systematically
advocate the killing of Tutsi by identifying them with the RPF who, RTLM claimed, had
just invaded Rwanda. RTLM broadcast that the RPF would exterminate all the Hutu if
the supposed attack was not immediately, repulsed. RTLM claimed that the only way to
stop the RPF was to exterminate all the rebels and their alleged accomplices. The radio
station implied all Tutsi civilians in Rwanda were accomplices. The inference was
obvious. According to RTLM the final war could not be won on the strength of the
Rwandan armed forces alone. It required the participation of the entire Rwandan
population, men and women alike. RTLM was the vehicle for promoting a “duty of
genocide”. In essence tight control of the airwaves enabled Rwandan authorities to
suppress crucial information about the real situation concerning the war with the RPF.
In the days following April 6th RTLM did commit genocide. RTLM broadcast
instructions that all physically able Hutu residents were expected to man roadblocks.
Individuals had to produce their identity cards in order to pass. Instructions were given,
on the air, by RTLM, that persons identified as Tutsi or anyone unable to produce an
identity card were to be executed on the spot.
RTLM also aided militias and security forces, in their search, to identify and locate
individuals targeted for elimination. RTLM announced the precise whereabouts and even
vehicle license numbers of individuals trying to hide or flee. Names that RTLM had
announced during its broadcasts, before the genocide, as being enemies of the state, were
immediately killed within the first few days after the genocide began. 8.
Print Media
In 1991 Kangura, a government supported newspaper incited hatred by publishing the
Ten Hutu Commandments. The Commandments instructed Hutu to discriminate against
Tutsi and to wrest control of all political, administrative, economic military and security
positions in the government. Hutus were further commanded to have collective unity and
solidarity against their common Tutsi enemy. The eighth and most often quoted
commandment said " Hutus must stop having mercy on the Tutsis".
Kangura editorials in tandem with Radio Rwanda and RTLM incited Hutu by claiming
that Tutsi aimed to exterminate Hutu and to take their land. Kangura suggested that Tutsi
be dealt with before they could strike. For example in February 1994 Kangura published
an article headlined “By the way, the Tutsi race could be extinguished".
Kangura published lists of dozens of merchants in Kigali who were “suspected” of
supporting the RPF. The newspaper published the names, and photographs of high Tutsi
government officials, who it claimed, were working for the RPF. The people Kangura
identified in its columns were soon arrested, attacked or both.
Kangura published an article in March 1994 headlined “Who Will Survive the War of
March? The article concluded: “If the RFP have decided to kill us then let us kill each
other. Let whatever is smoldering erupt”.
Comment - The virulent newspaper Kangura was first published in May 1990. The
newspaper served as the mouthpiece of the Akazu and was most notorious for its
systematic abuse and denigration of Tutsi. The newspaper was financed by Felicen
Kabuga, the President’s financial advisor, and future director of RTLM radio. From the
beginning Kangura had strong links to Network Zero. African Rights reported that
Agathe Habyarimana, the Presidents wife, was involved in its publication. Kangura, had
a circulation of 10,000 and was printed free of charge by the national printing company,
and distributed free of charge. It was also reported that the head of military intelligence
Colonel Anatole Nsengiyumva personally assisted with the distribution of Kangura in the
capital.
The Suppression of Opposition Media
In 1991 a number of independent newspapers were seized and confiscated by authorities.
Journalists were subject to arbitrary arrest and detention. Press Laws from 1991 required
newspapers to deposit copies of all issues to the administration and judicial authorities.
Severe penalties were meted out including prison terms for writing any thing against the
President. Between 1990 and mid 1992, 41 journalists were systematically harassed by
the authorities, arbitrarily detained, arrested and brought to trial. In 1992 the militias of
the MRND and the CDR increased informal repression against journalists and their
newspapers.
Motivation Via “PEP” Rallies
The UN Special Rapporteur Mr. Bacre Waly Ndiaye reported in 1993 that the role of
administrative authorities, in the violence, consisted chiefly in encouraging, planning and
directing operations, and in some cases actually participating in it. The authorities used
false rumors and misinformation to promote ethnic hatred and incite the local residents to
take part in attacks on Tutsi civilians. Mr. Ndiaye reported that, preceding outbreaks of
violence, there were speeches by representatives of the authorities, and broadcasts on
Rwanda Radio. The massacres he said were preceded by political meetings during which
the local peasants were “put in the mood” to indoctrinate them into believing that the
people they were going to kill were accomplices and potential collaborators of the
Rwandan Patriotic Front RPF.
Restrictions on the Freedom of Movement
In Rwanda stringent limitations on the right to freedom of movement were introduced
under the State of Emergency declared in November 1990 ostensibly to prevent the
Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA) from infiltrating the country. All Rwandans were
required to obtain travel documents just to leave their communes and villages. Members
of the ruling party MRND received permanent laissez-passers.
Comment - General residential requirements under Rwandan law 1964 stipulated that all
Rwandans were legally required to hold residence permits in addition to national identity
cards indicating their ethnicity. Landlords were responsible under penalty of fines and
imprisonment, for ensuring that all tenant farmers had their papers in order. In the early
1990’s these pass laws and identity card requirements were very convenient to control the
movement of the Tutsi population.
Lastly - Information Available to the International Community:
The failure of the international community to intervene in time to prevent the Rwandan
genocide is often described as a failure of early warning. The Rwandan genocide had
very clear Indicators. The international community received three explicit warnings, two
of which came from within the UN system itself.
First: March 1993 an International Commission of Investigation composed of four NGO
human rights groups reported on the specifics of political violence and human rights
violations in Rwanda since October 1990. The report documented the establishment of
Network Zero death squads, and the Interahamwe, Impuzamugambi militias, as well as
their close ties to the Habyrimana government. The Commission also pointed out the
role of Radio Rwanda by documenting specific genocidal statements the radio broadcast
in 1992.
Second: An August 1993 the report of UN Special Rapporteur Bacre Waly Ndiaye
described death threats and political assassinations against government opponents. The
UN Special Rapporteur raised the prospect of genocide when he stated, in his report, that
incitement to racial hatred had been noted, on Radio Rwanda. He recommended a
national reconciliation campaign to stop the incitement to hatred.
Third: In January 1994 Major General Romeo Dallaire, UNAMIR, reported to the UN
Secretariat, in New York, that his intelligence network gathered details of plans for
genocide, including training of militias, catches of arms and lists of victims. Dallaire,
testifying at the UN in 1996, said he sent faxes to his superiors at UN Headquarters in
January 1994 warning of large-scale massacres. General Dallaire warned that Kigali,
which was designated as a weapons free zone, as part of the UN, OAU brokered Arusha
Accords was in fact a Hutu arms bazaar. He reported that grenades, Kalashnikov assault
rifles, and French arms were openly displayed and affordably priced in the central
market. He reported the arrival of large quantities of machetes from China, in numbers
that far exceeded Rwanda's demand for agricultural use. He also reported that the
weapons were being handed out free to people with no known military function. More
than any other document Dallaire’s faxes offered a precise blueprint for what was to
come. Dallaire’s informants had explicitly stated that the plans to exterminate the Tutis
and assassinate Belgians had originated in Habyarimana’s court. Much of what
Dalliaire’s informants told him came true.
In January and February 1994 Human Rights Watch /Africa supported Dallaire by
reporting that UNAMIR blocked the importation of several unauthorized shipments of
arms at Kigali Airport destined for the Rwandan armed forces.
Conclusion
The foregoing events which have been cited above as strong Indicators for I&W
genocide have happened before - Nazi Germany. In Rwanda it was déjà vu, the same
oppression, intimidation, propaganda, hatred, control, violence, and fear that existed in
1930’s Germany pervaded this tiny African country prior to April 6th.
Interahamwe, Impuzamugambi militias and Network Zero were established by the state.
The atrocities, and human rights abuses they committed using hit lists to selectively
murder were sanctioned by the state. It was no different from the Gestapo (Secret State
Police) tactics used against Germany’s Jewish minority.
The control of Rwanda Radio, RTLM radio and Kangura, to manipulate, and distort the
truth, and the psychological indoctrination and conditioning at all levels of society were
the same methods used by Joseph Geobbels, to get Germans “in the mood” for war. An
I&W methodology collecting on the inflammatory hate broadcasts, editorials and the use
of psychological conditioning could have been used as an early warning of impending
genocide.
The identity cards, psychological isolation of the Tutsi, restriction of movement,
confiscation of property, suppression of the truth were all engineered by the Rwandan
government as part of a deliberate plan to exterminate the Tutsi, just as the German state
had a plan to exterminate the Jewish people. In the case of Rwanda the Indicators were
there to be measured and monitored. An I&W System for genocide could have been
established to warn.
Notes
1. In Rwanda corruption, political assassinations, murder, torture, summary arrests and
disappearances occurred with impunity from 1991-1993 under the direction of President
Juvenal Habyarimana. The turmoil continued until neighboring countries, notably
Tanzania and the Organization of African Unity began a round of negotiations with the
UN, Belgium and Germany at the tourist town of Arusha, Tanzania. On August 5th
,1993, five protocols were signed which covered respect for human rights and the rule of
law, power sharing , a transitional government, reform of all institutions of government,
including the military, presidency, and repatriation and resettlement of Rwandan
refugees who fled to neighboring countries.
2. The Belgians had identified the Tutsi as superior to the Hutu. They created an
apartheid system rooted in the myth of Tutsi superiority. They granted Tutsi total power
over the Hutu. In post colonial Rwanda, in the 1960’s, the Hutu gained power and did
not want the Tutsi back in control.
3. Interahamwe and the Impuzamugambi were centrally organized with prominent
national officers and leaders down to the neighborhood level. Party leaders recruited
militia members from the party youth organizations, paid them and provided them with
military training weapons and uniforms. In 1992 these groups expanded throughout the
country to commit violence
4. The Convention, on the Prevention, and Punishment, of the Crime of Genocide, was
approved by UN General Assembly, Resolution 260A(III), on 9 December 1948. The
Convention defined genocide as acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in
part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, such as: (a) killing members of the
group, (b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to member of the group (c) deliberately
inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction
in whole or in part.
5. U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 1994, U.S.
Government Printing Office, 1995. 200-208.
6. The Bagogwe are a Tutsi sub group mainly herdsmen who have lived outside Tutsi
political structures since the 17th century
7. Rwanda Patriotic Front. A group of mainly Tutsi exiles based in Uganda who invaded
Rwanda in 1990. A cease-fire was established in 1992. The RPF re-launched their
offensive on April 7th 1994 the day after the genocide began. They won the war in July
1994.
8. Chinese made radios were given to Hutus freely, in 1993, and the radios could only
pick up RTLM. Hutus heard on RTLM that Tutis were coming to kill Hutu and to take
Hutu land. This created a climate of hysteria in which ordinary people were influenced to
believe whatever they heard.
15.
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