ST 5203 Experimental Design Tutorial 8 Question 11 (Page 355) In this question, we have a 28-2 design with effects A, B, C, D, E, F, G and H. Suppose a first experiment (which we shall henceforth call MAIN) was conducted and the following results are either obtained or assumed: 1. All three-factor interactions and higher order interactions are considered to be zero except possibly those listed in (4) below. 2. All main effects are estimated cleanly. 3. All two-factor interactions are estimated cleanly or are known from previous experimentation, except for those listed in (4) below. 4. The following alias “pairs” (after dropping other terms from the alias group) have significant results: CDF=ABF CF=CGH AB=CD BF=BGH AF=AGH DF=DGH Problem: We wish to design an experiment in order to estimate cleanly each of the twelve effects listed above, using the minimum number of treatment combinations. We first make two important observations before designing the experiment. 1. In each of the alias pairs given above, for example CDF=ABF, if one of the effects (say, CDF) can be estimated cleanly using the new experiment that we are going to design, then we can estimate the other (ABF) by substituting the estimate of CDF into the original estimate of the sum (or difference) of CDF and ABF (obtained from experiment MAIN) to obtain the clean estimate of ABF. 2. In view of point 1 above, we try to design our experiment in such a way that in each of the 6 alias pairs above, at least one of the two effects can be estimated cleanly. Observe that in the 6 pairs above, only effects A, B, C, D, F (five in total) appears on the left hand side while effects A, B, C, D, F, G, H (seven in total) appears on the right hand side. This gives us an indication on how we can minimize the number of treatment combinations used. Let us consider a 25-2 fractional factorial design (which we shall denote as SUB) with the following defining relation: I=ACD=BDF=ABCF Consequently, the alias rows are as follows: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) I A B C D F AB AF = = = = = = = = ACD CD ABCD AD AC ACDF BCD CDF = = = = = = = = BDF ABDF DF BCDF BF BD ADF ABD = = = = = = = = ABCF BCF ACF ABF ABCDF ABC CF BC Recall that the six alias pairs in MAIN are CDF=ABF, CF=CGH, AB=CD, BF=BGH, AF=AGH and DF=DGH. The effects that appear in the alias rows above are highlighted. We make the following observations regarding the alias rows above: Row 1): CD can be estimated cleanly, since we have the clean estimate of A (from MAIN) and assumed that ABDF=BCF=0. Row 2): DF can be estimated cleanly, since we have the clean estimate of B (from MAIN) and assumed that ABCD=ACF=0. Row 3): ABF can be estimated cleanly, since we have the clean estimates of C and AD (from MAIN) and assumed that BCDF=0. Row 4): BF can be estimated cleanly, since we have the clean estimates of D and AC (from MAIN) and assumed that ABCDF=0 We now describe how our design SUB can be used to accomplish the task of estimating the twelve effects that are aliased in MAIN. 1. Effects CD, DF, ABF and BF are can be estimated cleanly as described in the observations above. 2. Since CDF=ABF in MAIN, the clean estimate of ABF obtained in SUB can be used to estimate CDF cleanly. 3. Since AB=CD in MAIN, the clean estimate of CD obtained in SUB can be used to estimate AB cleanly. 4. Since AB=CF in SUB (see Row 6, noting that BCD=ADF=0 by our assumption), the clean estimate of AB obtained in step 3 above can be used to estimate CF cleanly. 5. Since CF=CGH in MAIN, the clean estimate of CF obtained in step 4 above can be used to estimate CGH cleanly. 6. Since BF=BGH in MAIN, the clean estimate of BF obtained in SUB can be used to estimate BGH cleanly. 7. Since AF=CDF=BC in SUB (see Row 7, noting that ABD=0 by our assumption), the clean estimate of AF can be obtained using the clean estimate of CDF obtained in step 2 above together with the clean estimate of BC obtained in MAIN. 8. Since AF=AGH in MAIN, the clean estimate of AGH can be obtained using the clean estimate of AF obtained from step 7 above. 9. Since DF=DGH in MAIN, the clean estimate of DF obtained in SUB can be used to estimate DGH cleanly. This concludes the discussion on how our design SUB can be used to accomplish the task of estimating (cleanly) the twelve effects in the six alias pairs in MAIN. ------------------------------------------End of question 11-----------------------------------------Question 12 (Page 356) In this question, we have 7 factors at two levels each and we wish to design a 27-3 experiment assuming that all interaction effects, except AB, AC, AD, AE, AF, AG, are zero. Note that in a 27-3 experiment, we will lose 23-1=7 effects completely. Thus we have to decide which seven effects are to be lost completely and these seven should not include main effects or any of the interaction effects that cannot be assumed to be zero. (So we cannot choose AB, AC, AD, AE, AF, AG). Note that we also do not choose three-factor interaction effects involving A, like ABC in the defining equation. If we do so, then there will be a two-factor interaction effect involving A being in the same alias group as a main effect. For example if I=ABC in the defining equation, then AB=C in some alias group, and in this case, both AB and C cannot be estimated cleanly. Recall that we can only choose three effects in the defining equation since the other four are automatically determined from the three we choose by using mod 2 multiplication. Suppose we choose the following 3 three-factor interaction effects in our defining equation BCD, BEG and CFG. Then the other four effects are CDEG, BDFG, BCEF and DEF. So the defining equation is I=BCD=BEG=CFG=DEF=CDEG=BDFG=BCEF In this case, the alias groups involving main effects and two-factor interaction effects involving effect A are as follows: I A B C D E F G AB AC AD AE AF AG = = = = = = = = = = = = = = BCD 4 CD BD BC 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 = = = = = = = = = = = = = = BEG 4 EG 4 4 BG 4 BE 3 5 5 3 5 3 = = = = = = = = = = = = = = CFG 4 4 FG 4 4 CG CF 5 3 5 5 3 3 = = = = = = = = = = = = = = DEF 4 4 4 EF EF DE 4 5 5 3 3 3 5 = = = = = = = = = = = = = = CDEG 5 5 3 3 3 5 3 6 4 4 4 6 4 = = = = = = = = = = = = = = BDFG 5 3 5 3 5 3 3 4 6 4 6 4 4 = = = = = = = = = = = = = = BCEF 5 3 3 5 3 3 5 4 4 6 4 4 6 In fact, without computing the table above, we can see why all main effects and twofactor interaction effects involving effect A will be estimated cleanly. This is because: 1. Main effect A will be alias with 4 four-factor interaction effects and 3 five-factor interaction effects since the defining equation contains 4 three-factor interaction effects and 3 four-factor interaction effects and does not involve any interaction effects with A. This enables us to estimate A cleanly. 2. Main effects B, C, D, E, F, G will be alias with either Two-factor interaction effects not involving A (since the three-factor interaction effects in the defining equation does not involve A); or Three-factor or higher order interaction effects. This enables us to estimate effects B,C, D, E, F and G cleanly. 3. Two-factor interaction effects involving A will be alias with three-factor or higher order interaction effects since all the effects in the defining equation are three or four-factor interaction effects that does not involve A. This implies that all the two-factor interaction effects involving A can also be estimated cleanly. In conclusion, we see that by performing a 27-3 fractional factorial design with the defining equation given above will allow us to estimate all main effects and all two-factor interactions involving A cleanly, assuming that all other interactions equal to zero. ------------------------------------------End of question 12------------------------------------------ Question 15 (Page 356) In the magazine advertising study, the following 5 factors (each at 2 levels) were studied: A: Size of advertisement (Eighth of a page vs. Quarter of a page) B: Color (Black and white vs. Two colors) C: Location (Top of page vs. Bottom of page) D: Rest of page (Mostly advertisements vs. Mostly article) E: Advertisement layout (Cluttered vs. More white) F: Magazine (Magazine X vs. Magazine Y) We assume that all interaction effects were zero, except two-factor interactions involving factor F.A 26-2 fractional factorial design with the following defining equation was used: I=ABCD=ABEF=CDEF This defining equation divides the 26=64 treatment combinations into 4 blocks in the following way: (principal block given in the text, other blocks obtained by performing mod 2 multiplication on principal block). Principal Block 1 ab cd abcd ef abef cdef abcdef ace bce ade bde acf bcf adf bdf Block 2 a b acd bcd aef bef acdef bcdef ce abce de abde cf abcf df abdf Block 3 c abc d abd cef abcef def abdef ae be acde bcde af bf acdf bcdf Block 4 e abe cde abcde f abf cdf abcdf ac bc ad bd acfe bcfe adfe bdef The treatment combinations that were run (the principal block) are highlighted in the table above. Data was given for 16 treatment combinations with 4 replicates each. The data was entered into MINITAB with the following modification: We exchange D and E in the defining equation. This is to enable us to input the generators in the form that is acceptable to MINITAB. With this change, the defining equation is now I=ABCE=ABDF=CDEF. The following outlines the steps in which the data is keyed into MINITAB: 1. Stat>>DOE>>Factorial>>Create factorial design. 2. Type of design: 2-level factorial (specific generators) Number of effects = 4 = 6-2 (since we are using a 26-2 design) 3. Designs: Select Full factorial Number of replicates = 4 Generators: Since I=ABCE=ABDF=CDEF, we have E=ABC and F=ABD. Thus, generators are E=ABC and F=ABD. 4. Label the factors: Size(A), Color(B), Location(C), Ad Layout(E), Rest of Pg(D), Mag(F). 5. Sort the worksheet by standard order and then key in the data under a new “Response” column. 6. Stat>>DOE>>Factorial>>Analyze factorial design. 7. Response: “Response”. Terms: Since we assume that all interaction effects except those two-factor interaction effects involving F are zero, we choose the following terms in our model: A, B, C, D, E, F, AF, BF, CF, DF, EF. The following gives the output from MINITAB. Fractional Factorial Design Factors: Runs: Blocks: 6 64 none Design Generators: Base Design: Replicates: Center pts (total): E = ABC 4, 16 4 0 Resolution: IV Fraction: 1/4 F = ABD Fractional Factorial Fit: Response versus Size(A), Color(B), ... Estimated Effects and Coefficients for Response (coded units) Term Constant Size(A) Color(B) Location Ad Layou Rest of Mag(F) Size(A)*Mag(F) Color(B)*Mag(F) Location*Mag(F) Ad Layou*Mag(F) Rest of*Mag(F) Effect -0.719 201.281 0.844 3.844 -0.906 -3.031 -0.906 -2.031 2.156 -1.594 -1.969 Coef 228.578 -0.359 100.641 0.422 1.922 -0.453 -1.516 -0.453 -1.016 1.078 -0.797 -0.984 SE Coef 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 7.713 T 29.63 -0.05 13.05 0.05 0.25 -0.06 -0.20 -0.06 -0.13 0.14 -0.10 -0.13 P 0.000 0.963 0.000 0.957 0.804 0.953 0.845 0.953 0.896 0.889 0.918 0.899 Analysis of Variance for Response (coded units) Source Main Effects 2-Way Interactions Residual Error Lack of Fit Pure Error Total DF 6 5 52 4 48 63 Seq SS 648642 256 197999 197565 434 846898 Adj SS 648642 256 197999 197565 434 Adj MS 108107 51 3808 49391 9 F 28.39 0.01 P 0.000 1.000 5E+03 0.000 We draw the following conclusions from the output above: 1. From the estimated effects and coefficients for response table, we see that only effect B (Color) is significant. All the other effects are not significant even at very high -levels. 2. From the ANOVA table, we see that the sum of all the two-way interactions is not significant (p-value=1). Next steps: 1. Remove interaction effects one at a time. We observe that when one interaction effect is removed, only effect B (color) remains significant. Other interaction effects and main effects remain insignificant. 2. The reduced model with all interaction effects removed: Estimated Effects and Coefficients for Response (coded units) Term Constant Size(A) Color(B) Location Ad Layou Rest of Mag(F) Effect -0.719 201.281 0.844 3.844 -0.906 -3.031 Coef 228.578 -0.359 100.641 0.422 1.922 -0.453 -1.516 SE Coef 7.372 7.372 7.372 7.372 7.372 7.372 7.372 T 31.01 -0.05 13.65 0.06 0.26 -0.06 -0.21 P 0.000 0.961 0.000 0.955 0.795 0.951 0.838 After delete main effects one by one (backwards selection), the final model is Y=B. Note that you should check assumptions once you get your final model. The assumption checking is routine and skipped here. ------------------------------------------End of question 15-----------------------------------------Question 16 (Page 357) Suppose now we are told that the four replications in question 15 are such that replications 1 and 2 are men, replications 3 and 4 are women. The gender is assumed to be a blocking factor. Just revise the column “Blocks” to reflect this change and fit the data as in Question 15. Here are Effects and Anova table: Estimated Effects and Coefficients for Response (coded units) Term Constant Block Size(A) Color(B) Location Ad Layou Rest of Mag(F) Size(A)*Mag(F) Color(B)*Mag(F) Location*Mag(F) Ad Layou*Mag(F) Rest of*Mag(F) Effect -0.719 201.281 0.844 3.844 -0.906 -3.031 -0.906 -2.031 2.156 -1.594 -1.969 Coef 228.578 -0.484 -0.359 100.641 0.422 1.922 -0.453 -1.516 -0.453 -1.016 1.078 -0.797 -0.984 SE Coef 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 7.788 T 29.35 -0.06 -0.05 12.92 0.05 0.25 -0.06 -0.19 -0.06 -0.13 0.14 -0.10 -0.13 P 0.000 0.951 0.963 0.000 0.957 0.806 0.954 0.846 0.954 0.897 0.890 0.919 0.900 Analysis of Variance for Response (coded units) Source Blocks Main Effects 2-Way Interactions Residual Error Lack of Fit Pure Error Total DF 1 6 5 51 19 32 63 Seq SS 15 648642 256 197984 197693 291 846898 Adj SS 15 648642 256 197984 197693 291 Adj MS 15 108107 51 3882 10405 9 F 0.00 27.85 0.01 P 0.951 0.000 1.000 1E+03 0.000 As can be seen, there is only one significant effect (B- Color). Do backward model selection as in Question 15, then we will come out the same final model: Y=B. Note that to delete the “Blocks” effect from model in Minitab, you must tick off “include blocks in the model” when you select terms in step 7 as stated in Question 15. ------------------------------------------End of question 16------------------------------------------