Lost at Sea
This exercise is designed to demonstrate the value of group decision making. The exercise requires that you
first make a set of decisions individually and then repeat the same decisions using a group format.
You are adrift on a private yacht in the South Pacific. Because of a fire of unknown origin, much of the yacht
and its contents have been destroyed. The yacht is now slowly sinking. Your location is unclear because
critical navigational equipment was destroyed and you and the crew were distracted trying to bring the fire
under control. Your best estimate is that you are approximately 1,000 miles south-southwest of the nearest
land.
Below is a list of 15 items that are intact and undamaged after the fire. In addition to these articles, you have
a serviceable rubber life raft with oars large enough to carry yourself, the crew, and all the items listed
below. The total contents of all survivors' pockets are a package of cigarettes, several books of matches, and
five one-dollar bills.
Your task is to rank the 15 items below in terms of their importance to your survival. Place the number 1 by
the most important item, the number 2 by the second most important, and so on through number 15, the least
important.
Sextant
shaving mirror
Five gallon can of water
Mosquito netting
One case of U.S. Army C
rations
Maps of the Pacific
Ocean
Seat cushion (flotation
device approved by the
Coast Guard)
Two-gallon can of oil-gas
mixture
small transistor radio
shark repellent
20 square feet of opaque
plastic
One quart of 160-proof
Puerto Rican rum
15 feet of nylon rope
Two boxes of chocolate
bars
Fishing kit
After everyone has completed the above rankings, your instructor will divide you into groups. Your group is
to then rank the same items, using a group consensus method. This means the ranking for each of the 15
survival items must be agreed upon by each group member before it becomes part of the group decision.
Consensus is difficult to reach. Therefore, not every ranking will meet with everyone's complete approval.
As a group, try to make each ranking one with which all group members can at least partially agree. Here are
some guidelines to use in reaching consensus:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Avoid arguing for your own individual judgments. Approach the task on the basis of logic.
Avoid changing your mind if the change is only to reach agreement and to avoid conflict. Support
only solutions with which you are able to agree at least somewhat
Avoid "conflict-reducing" techniques such as majority vote, averaging, or trading.
View differences of opinion as a help rather than a hindrance in decision making.
After you have completed your individual and group decisions, be prepared to discuss the following
questions:
1. Were your group decisions better than your individual decisions? Why or why not?
2. Did any individual tend to dominate your group? If so, how could this situation have been better
managed?
"Lost at Sea" - "SOLUTION"
This is a challenging exercise in consensus reaching which is sure to draw out some differences in
opinion. In most groups, the group score will be better than the individuals will do on their own.
The "correct' solution (source noted at the bottom of the exercise) comes from ranking by Officers
of the United States Merchant Marines. A brief rationale is provided with each, although not all of
the reasons for each item are mentioned.
1.
Shaving mirror. Critical for signaling air-sea rescue.
2.
Two gallon can of oil-gas mixture. Critical for signaling - the mixture will float on water and
could be ignited (outside the raft, of course).
3.
Five gallon can of water. Necessary for survival - to replace water lost through perspiration,
etc.
4.
One case of U.S. Army C rations. Basic food intake needs.
5.
Twenty square feet of opaque plastic. To be used to collect rain water and provide some
protection from the elements.
6.
Two boxes of chocolate bars. Reserve food supply.
7.
Fishing kit. Ranked behind the candy bars because there is no assurance that fish will be
caught.
8.
Fifteen feet of nylon rope. May be used to lash equipment together to prevent it from falling
overboard.
9.
Floating seat cushion. Could function as a life preserver if someone fell overboard.
10.
Shark repellent. Need you ask?
11.
One quart of 160 proof Puerto Rican rum. Contains 80% alcohol. Could be used as an
antiseptic. Would cause dehydration if ingested so of little use otherwise.
12.
Small transistor radio. Of little value since it only receives, and it's unlikely to receive much
in the current situation (too far from stations).
13.
Maps of the Pacific Ocean. Worthless without navigational equipment. It really doesn't
matter much where you are -- only where the rescuers are.
14.
Mosquito netting. There are no mosquitoes on the ocean.
15.
Sextant. Relatively useless without tables and a chronometer.