Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility - Pilot Test in Nashik City Prepared by Clean Air Asia and the Institute of Transportation and Development Policy for UN-Habitat August 2013 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City ©2013 Clean Air Asia and the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy. All rights reserved. Clean Air Asia Center, 2013. “TOOL FOR RAPID ASSESSMENT OF URBAN MOBILITY IN CITIES WITH DATA SCARCITY: A USER’S GUIDE”. Pasig City, Philippines. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. The Clean Air Asia Center would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this Clean Air Asia Center publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever, without prior permission in writing from the Clean Air Asia Center. Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are those of Clean Air Asia and ITDP staff, consultants and management, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Trustees of the Clean Air Asia Center. The Clean Air Asia Center does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and does not accept responsibility for consequence of their use. Acknowledgements UN-Habitat, Nashik Municipal Corporation, Late Annasaheb Patil’s Nashik Institute of Technology, College of Architecture and Centre for Design, Saraha Consultants Contact Clean Air Asia Center Unit 3505 Robinsons Equitable Tower ADB Avenue, Pasig City, 1605 Philippines Tel +632 631 1042 Fax +63 2 6311390 center@cleanairasia.org CAA Country Networks in China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Vietnam ITDP 1210 18th St NW Washington, DC 20036 Tel: +1 212 629 8001 Fax: +1 646 380 2360 mobility@itdp.org ITDP Country Networks in China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina About Clean Air Asia www.cleanairasia.org Clean Air Asia (formerly Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities) promotes better air quality and livable cities by translating knowledge to policies and actions that reduce air pollution and greenhouse emissions from transport, energy, and other sectors. Clean Air Asia was established as the leading air quality management network for Asia by the Asian Development Bank, World Bank and USAID in 2001, and operates since 2007 as an independent non-profit organization. Clean Air Asia has offices in Manila, Beijing and Delhi, networks in eight Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam) and is a UN recognized partnership of more than 240 organizations in Asia and worldwide. About ITDP www.itdp.org The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) provides technical transport and planning expertise to local authorities in cities around the world. We promote transport solutions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, while improving urban livability and economic opportunity. Our projects inspire cities towards more environmentally and people-friendly transportation. 2 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADB CMP FGD Ha ITDP JNNURM Km Kmpl MoU NGO NMC PCTR P-km RoW sqkm TRAM UMTA Asian Development Bank Comprehensive Mobility Plan Focused Group Discussion Hectare Institute for Transport Development and Policy Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission Kilometer Kilometer per Liter Memorandum of Understanding Non Government Organization Nashik Municipal Corporation Per Capita Trip Rate Passenger Kilometer Right Of Way Square kilometer Tool For Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility Urban Metropolitan Transport Authority 3 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 5 2. APPROACH ............................................................................................................................................ 6 3. PILOT TEST CITY CONTEXT AND EXISTING DATA: NASHIK, INDIA ............................................................. 9 3.1 Current Transport Infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 9 4. PREPARING DATA COLLECTION FOR TRAM ............................................................................................ 13 4.1 Local Survey Support......................................................................................................................... 13 4.2 City Classification .............................................................................................................................. 13 5. FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................... 19 6. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY .............................................................................................................................. 22 7. RESULTS AND FINDINGS FOR TEST CITY.................................................................................................. 29 7.1 Household Characteristics ................................................................................................................ 29 7.2 Transport and Travel Characteristics ................................................................................................ 30 7.3 Summary of Preliminary Findings ..................................................................................................... 39 8. ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS USING TRAM ...................................................................... 40 9. KEY TAKEAWAYS BASED ON PILOT TESTING ........................................................................................... 44 ANNEXES ..................................................................................................................................................... 47 Annex A. List of Stakeholders ................................................................................................................. 47 4 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 1. INTRODUCTION The Tool for the Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility (TRAM) was developed with the main objective of orienting key municipal stakeholders, including city mayors, municipal authorities and decision makers on time-effective ways to tackle pressing mobility issues. It is intended to be a benchmarking tool for urban mobility and includes both participatory and analytical components that enable local stakeholders to share, enhance and analyze their knowledge of mobility conditions. The knowledge gained will serve as a basis for transport and land use interventions. This report is a part of series of reports on “Rapid Assessment Toolkit for Urban Mobility in cities with scarce data”. A more detailed description of the TRAM methodology is provided in the TRAM User’s Guide This report explains the pilot testing procedure in Nashik, India, a city with scarce data. The analysis of the data is carried out with the TRAM tool to understand the present mobility patterns in Nashik and assess the impacts of potential interventions based on the priorities of local residents. This report highlights and describes the activities carried out in Nashik city which include a scoping visit, stakeholder meetings, surveyor orientation, focus group discussion, household surveys, assessment of overall city characteristics, and analysis of interventions using the modified version of the Transportation Emissions Evaluation Model for Projects (TEEMP) City tool. It also presents an analysis of several options for transportation improvements and the likely impact they will have on the city. 5 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 2. APPROACH The figure below shows the step by step approach to the TRAM methodology. These are further elaborated in the TRAM User’s Guide, and are also discussed in greater detail later on in the report. Step 1: Meeting with the city government/stakeholders •Establish early coordination with the city •Collect city-level data Step 2: Data collection at the selected neighbourhoods •Identify areas where detailed data collection will be conducted •Gather detailed data in the selected neighbourhoods through focus group discussions and household interviews Step 3: Survey Data encoding •Input and collate the data gathered from the surveys and focus group into an organized, electronic form through a data input file •Transform data to represent entire city through sketch citywide analysis Step 4: Evaluation of current state of mobility •Summary statistics and knowledge gained from the FGDs and city meetings will be used to provide a picture of the current state of mobility in the city Step 5: Rapid assessment of intervention impacts •Use data and knowledge gathered from the data collection activities in order to rapidly assess the potential impacts of transportation interventions (e.g. emissions, fuel consumption, time spent, income spent on transport, safety) Figure 1: Steps involved in the TRAM Step 1: Meeting with the city government/stakeholders The objectives of this step are the following: 1. Select an appropriate City 2. Coordinate with the city government to plan assessment activities and to collect available city-level baseline information such as the following: city-level accident statistics socio-economic statistics public transit routes and fares fuel price current transport policies mobility plans 3. Classify the entire city based on centrality, income, and access to transit Step 2: Data collection at the selected neighborhoods 6 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City This step is divided into the Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and the household surveys and helps capture the following information: mobility issues and potential solutions basic socio-economic data main trip destinations trips by mode travel time income spent on transport ownership of motorized and non-motorized vehicles perception on the acceptability/quality/safety of public transit modes perception on priorities for transportation improvements The data is collected through a scientific sampling procedure explained in the TRAM User’s Guide. Step 3: Survey data encoding The purpose of this step is to store and collate the data from the survey in an organized electronic form. The data gathered through the interviews is transformed into electronic form using an excel-based survey data input file that was developed under this project. The input file is based on the format of the interview survey form, producing summary statistics (e.g. travel activity and mode share) for different categories, including income, gender, age, and occupation. Step 4: Evaluation of the Current State of Mobility The purpose of this step is to evaluate the information collected from government officials, the focus group discussions, and survey summary statistics to develop a preliminary picture of the current mobility issues in the city. This process uses the city classification information from Step 1, with a modified TEEMP-City tool to expand the household survey data to show characteristics of the entire city. The survey data input file will produce summary statistics for many parameters, including the following: average number of trips/ capita mode shares average trip length average travel times average % of income spent on transport average person-kms average perception ratings These indicators by themselves will provide insight to local policy makers regarding the existing availability, accessibility, affordability and acceptability of transportation in the city. By showing mobility patterns across many different segments of the society, politicians will gain a more complete picture of transportation in the city. This process serves as preparation for Step 5. Step 5: Rapid assessment of intervention impacts The purpose of this step is to provide a quick assessment of the impacts of different transportation interventions in the city. This analysis uses the results from the household survey as inputs into a modified TEEMP-City model. Interventions include, among others: 7 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Pedestrian Safety Improvements Bicycle Safety Improvements New Metro/Rail New Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) More flyovers/limited-access roadways Bike share systems These interventions are analyzed based on a number of quantitative criteria, including: Total number of users benefitting Income groups benefitting Project costs CO2 Emissions Reductions The projects are also described in terms on the qualitative benefits that each one provides. These include the following: Time savings Safety improvements Passenger comfort improvements Access improvements The results of the analysis should be compared to the issues and priorities identified in the household survey and FGDs, and with the input of local leaders. This way, the city can make a more informed choice about how to best address existing and future transportation issues. The results of the analysis provides a clear view of the effects of different transportation interventions in the city, and how they compare to the priorities of the city and its people. 8 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 3. PILOT TEST CITY CONTEXT AND EXISTING DATA: NASHIK, INDIA The City if Nashik was selected as the location for the pilot test of the Tool for the Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility (TRAM) because it is growing rapidly, in term of economy, population, and motorization and has an administration receptive to sustainable transportation ideas. Nashik is the fourth largest city in Maharashtra state in India. According to the 2011 census, Nashik has a population of 1,486,9731 (1.48 million). With increasing migration of the population to urban areas, Nashik is fast growing in both city area and population, which is set to grow to nearly 4 million by 2030. As it grows, the city is witnessing rapid motorization and increased congestion and pollution. With suitable interventions at this stage, it can avoid the pitfalls that similar cities have fallen into and can set high standards for other cities to follow. In order to obtain international expertise and advisory services on sustainable transport, the Nashik Municipal Corporation (NMC) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP). ITDP held an initial stakeholder meeting which was well attended by both government and non-government representatives indicating considerable interest in sustainable transport. Because of its size, growth, and openness to sustainable transportation ideas, Nashik was chosen for the pilot test of the tool, which will greatly help to develop good data and indicators, the foundation of sustainable transport planning process. 3.1 Current Transport Infrastructure In 1985, the development area of the Nashik was 27% of the total area of 7,260 Hectares and the transportation right-of-way occupied 11% of the developed area. Transportation is expected to increase to 15% of the developed area and the total developed area to 53% of the total area during the plan period 2006-20312. Interestingly, Nashik has a population density of 4,157 persons per square kilometer, which indicates that there is still a great potential to increase the density and retain Nashik as a compact city. A Comprehensive Mobility Plan (CMP) was carried out in 2007 for Nashik city to determine the transport interventions for the future, considering the growth and change in land use. The CMP is prepared with a perspective of 20 years. The summary of existing conditions, documented in the CMP, was made available by the authorities, but the detailed data was not available. The results summarize the transport indicators from the city. The summary of city travel characteristics in 2007 is presented in Table 1. Table 1: Household Travel Characteristics [CMP, 2007] 1 2 Household size 4.5 people Average household income USD $140 per month Expenditure on transport 4% of the household income Per Capita Trip Rate (PCTR) 1.68 PCTR excluding walk trips 1.21 Percentage of highest trips Private vehicle (45%) Percentage of lowest trips Public transit Average trip lengths 4.37 km including walk trips http://www.census2011.co.in/census/city/361-nashik.html http://nashikcorporation.gov.in/doc/cdp-ch4_Chapter4.pdf 9 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 5.82 km excluding walk trips Vehicular trip length Between 3 and 5 km Walk trip length 1.01 km Two wheeler trip length 10.54 km From the above table, private vehicle transportation (i.e. two wheelers and cars) is more prevalent than other modes. Vehicle registration data from Nashik City shows a high level of two wheeler ownership than other vehicles (see Table 2). The data show that Bus is the only public transit mode available, but it is inadequate to meet the growing transportation demand, accounting for only 4% of all trips3. According to the CMP, 420 additional buses are required to meet the needs of the city, an increase of the bus fleet size to 650. 100 buses were sanctioned for the city under the JNNURM, India’s national transportation funding mechanism, which aims to increase the mode share of public transit use to 10%. There is no Urban Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA) or a Special Purpose Vehicle in the city to manage and operate urban transport. There is also no comprehensive parking policy4. The CMP proposes almost 90km of public transit corridors on ten routes in the city out of which 55km is for bus rapid transit systems (BRTS) with four terminals. Table 2: Vehicle Registration in Nashik City as on 31 March 20115 Vehicle Type Population 2 Wheeler 300,877 Auto Rickshaw 16,937 Car/Jeep/Taxi Buses (includes stage carriers, school buses, private services, contract carriers) 44,208 944 It is noteworthy that the CMP also mentions that pedestrians and cyclists should be encouraged with continuous and safe paths, especially near public transit access points. However, the implementation program only mentions the provision of four pedestrian subways or footbridges. The major implementation work outlined in the CMP is 18 road upgrades and six flyovers. Clearly there is a gap between what the CMP wants to achieve and how it intends to achieve it for the city. Visual inspection of many areas in the city like Panchwati, Sharanpur, around Trimbak Road, Canada Corner, Pandit Colony, Lawate Nagar, Savarkar Nagar and other areas shows a lack of dedicated and continuous footpaths. Major corridors such as the Mumbai – Agra road, Trimbak Road, Sharanpur Road, Gangapur Road, which are wide or have been widened recently, lack safe and continuous footpaths and cycling tracks and have lost effective crossing points. Though there was less need for physically separated footpaths in the recent past, due to low motorization and low speeds, 3 http://jnnurm.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/booklet-on-transforming-City-Bus-Transport-in-India.pdf http://jnnurm.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/booklet-on-transforming-City-Bus-Transport-in-India.pdf 5 http://www.mahatranscom.in/pdf/STATISTICAL.BOOK.10-11.pdf 4 10 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City the city is experiencing rapid growth in vehicular travel and is investing heavily to increase vehicle capacity, such as road widening, both of which greatly increase the dangers to walking and cycling. Preliminary Walkability surveys, separate from the tool analysis, were also carried out to determine the friendliness of the walking environment in Nashik. Based on the index developed by Clean Air Asia four different land use types were audited: residential, educational, commercial and transport terminals. The results (Table 3) show an overall poor level of walkability, similar to most Indian cities. With a rating of 35, the transport terminal scored the lowest of all areas. Residential areas scored better than others due to lower vehicular volumes and speeds. Table 3: Walkability Rating of Nashik Land-use Type Commercial Residential Educational Transport Terminal Index 30 45 40 24 A comparison with other Indian and Asian cities shows that Nashik has scored poorly in walkability. Not only is it less walkable than large cities like Chennai and Bangalore but also smaller cities like Rajkot and Surat, as shown in Figure 2. Depending on the range, the scores are provided different colors. Scores below 50, shown in red, are defined as ‘walk at your own risk’, scores between 50 and 70, in yellow, are defined as ‘waiting to walk’, and 70 and above, in green, are defined as ‘pleasure to walk’. Nashik has much potential to remain sustainable as majority of the trips are by foot. In the pedestrian preference survey carried out in other cities, 82% of pedestrians wanted to shift to motorized modes if no improvements were carried out in the pedestrian infrastructure6. This could well happen in Nashik, where pedestrians will shift to private vehicles when they can afford to, especially if it continues to become more dangerous to walk. 6 http://cleanairinitiative.org/portal/projects/India-walkability 11 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 2: Comparison of Walkability Scores with other Indian and Asian Cities Intermediate Public transit (IPT) such as auto rickshaws are the most ubiquitous form of transport and are available at almost all places of the city, based on observations. The CMP calls for regulation of auto rickshaws in the form of dedicated parking spaces and the usage of fare meters, which will require enforcement from the traffic police and the transport department. The CMP study identifies that activity is concentrated in the centre of the city and argues that it should be spread out through the implementation of ring roads, which would also reduce traffic congestion. There are proposals for Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Proposed Townships (which will host large number of housing complexes, commercial establishments) and industrial corridors linking Mumbai, Delhi and Pune. Other mass transit options such as metro rail are also being considered and a Metro feasibility study is planned by the NMC.7 7 http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-03-17/nashik/37786208_1_metro-rail-nashik-municipalcorporation-private-firm 12 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 4. PREPARING DATA COLLECTION FOR TRAM 4.1 Local Survey Support The success of a participatory project hinges on the active involvement and support of the local administration and organizations. The Municipal Corporation’s engineers and local officials provided much support for the smooth conduct of all activities. Their assistance included approving activities for the orientation program, issuing official letters, and connecting CAA and ITDP with other stakeholders in the city. During the initial stakeholder visit, Nashik First, a local NGO, provided assistance in creating a long list of the neighborhoods based on the survey requirements. The volunteers for the survey were provided by Nashik Institute of Technology and College of Architecture and Centre for Design. Saraha Consultancy provided office space for survey support and meetings while carrying out the surveys. 4.2 City Classification The first step in collecting data with TRAM is to effectively choose survey neighborhoods and then scale them up to represent the city as a whole, the city should be classified before any further data is collected. This classification should be on three characteristics: income level (low, medium, and high), centrality (central or peripheral) and transit access (good or poor). This way, decisions regarding the boundaries of the central city, the local definition of good transit access, and the level of income for different groups can be decided ahead of time. The rest of the survey, including the selection of neighborhoods to survey and the scaling up of the results, will flow from this work. In Nashik, this was not the case, as the TRAM methodology was not completely finalized. The neighborhoods were initially selected, based on the 12 typologies by a partial survey team and local officials familiar with the area. Afterwards, the full survey team arrived in the city, and the selection of neighborhoods was reviewed and altered to best represent a broad range of income levels and a better definition of centrality and good transit access. The classification of the rest of the city occurred after the household survey and focus group discussion were completed. This presented a challenge, as the definitions for income, centrality, and transit access were confined by the neighborhoods that were surveyed, which were already assigned an income, access, and centrality classification. For example, the definition of the areas with good transit access needed to include the survey locations classified as having good access and exclude the survey areas classified as having poor access. This was challenging and made it more difficult to objectively classify the city. Centrality Central neighborhoods were defined as those within 4km of the oldest part of the city. This was done in a fairly straightforward by drawing a 4km circle around the center of the city. The areas within than circle were considered central, while area outside it were considered peripheral. A map of this designation is shown below. 13 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 3: Map of Nashik Centrality Transit Access Neighborhoods with good transit access were defined as those within walking distance of a bus stop and near a frequent route of auto rickshaws. Areas farther from the city center with lower-frequency bus service were not included as areas with good transit access, even if they were close to a bus stop. Information about the frequencies of bus routes and the prevalence of auto rickshaws along a corridor was not available. Therefore, most of the assessments of transit frequency and the prevalence of auto rickshaw are based on observation and local knowledge, which are highly subjective. This process should be revisited in future iterations of the tool to improve accuracy. A map of the areas with good transit access is shown below. 14 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 4: Map of Nashik Transit Access Income Level The recommended methodology in the TRAM Guide is to gather a team of local experts to examine a map and divide the city into income sectors. However, the ITDP team was not able to gather a team of experts with enough knowledge to do this effectively across the city. In lieu of this expertise, an alternate methodology was developed, in which an ITDP staff member procured a vehicle and a GPS device and drove to a wide variety of locations around the city. A total of 2,014 Data points were recorded every 100-400 meters across the entire city. At each location, the housing stock was classified into the following categories, which are illustrated in the figures that follow: Low-Income Housing: o Slums o Low-income government housing o Low-income tenements Middle-Income Housing: o Apartments, government-built flats, and private flats o Middle-income tenements and row houses High-Income Housing: o High-income apartments o High-income bungalows 15 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 5: Examples of Low-Income Housing Figure 6: Examples of Middle-Income Housing Figure 7: Examples of High-Income Housing 16 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City The administrative divisions with a point within then were assigned the income category and building height of the nearest point to the shape. Figure 8 shows the resulting map of income in Nashik. Figure 8: Map of Nashik Income Density The recommended methodology for classifying the density of each part of the city is also to use a panel of experts. As described above, a panel could not be procured, so an alternative methodology was used. In the same data collection process that measured income level, density was also recorded at each data point, according to the height of the buildings in the area. The following categories were recorded: 1-2 stories, 3-5 stories, and 6 or more stories. Based on the results of the centrality, transit access, and income categorizations, each administrative district will be assigned one of the 12 typologies. Since each shape has a typology and building height, the typologies were then analyzed to determine which building height was prevalent in the greatest amount of area. Then, densities were assigned based on the average building heights in the area as well as the following assumptions about density: Lower income areas > middle-income areas > high-income areas Areas with good transit access > Areas with poor transit access Central areas > peripheral areas Each typology’s densities was then multiplied by the total land area of the typology to calculate the total population in that typology. All 12 typologies were summed. If the sum was within 10,000 people of the population of Nashik (1.48 million) the process was stopped. If the population was not within that range, the densities were adjusted accordingly until the sum of the population in all typologies was within the desired range. The resulting densities are listed below: 17 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Core - Low - Connected: Core - Middle - Connected: Core - High - Connected: Core - Low - Not Connected: Core - Middle - Not Connected: Core - High - Not Connected: Periphery - Low - Connected: Periphery - Middle - Connected: Periphery - High - Connected: Periphery - Low - Not Connected: Periphery - Middle - Not Connected: Periphery - High - Not Connected: 32,000 people / km2 28,000 people / km2 26,000 people / km2 32,000 people / km2 28,000 people / km2 26,000 people / km2 30,000 people / km2 16,000 people / km2 11,000 people / km2 30,000 people / km2 14,000 people / km2 9,000 people / km2 18 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 5. FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSION As part of the pilot test of the tool, a focus group discussion (FGD) with selected key stakeholders was held with the aim to elicit information regarding the transportation infrastructure characteristics, transportation needs and issues of the city. While a larger number of FGDs is preferred, due to time and logistical constraints, only one FGD was able to be conducted in Nashik. The major objectives of the FGD were to: Obtain local experiences and perceptions on the current state of mobility in the city; Identify factors that facilitate urban mobility in the city; Identify major challenges to mobility; Identify the main areas for improvement in urban mobility; and Gather recommendations as to how (facilitating) factors can be enhanced, challenges addressed, and identify participants’ (perceived) priorities. The FGD was divided into a “current issues” and “potential solutions” session. Initially, each participant was given two minutes to list their problems and the facilitators did not intervene and ensured that all had a fair say of their opinion. The participants ranged from students, architects, builders, educationist, visually impaired, physically disabled, media, doctor, businessperson, driver, women’s group representing a cross section of society. The list of participants is provided in Annex 1. Figure 9: A view of the FGD (source: Colin Hughes) The aim of the FGD was initially explained to the participants, which was to understand their transportation and mobility issues faced by the groups the individuals were representing and to also suggest solutions. It was also ensured that there would be no domination of any particular group or people questioning other’s opinion. 19 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Hindi and Marathi (local language) were mostly used and clearly people were more comfortable to discuss in the vernacular language than in English. Survey moderators, proficient in the three languages, were available to summarize main points and guide the discussion. The points voiced by the participants were recorded on a large board, in English, and divided into issues and solutions. This approach made the process simpler for those joining in late and also gave rise to newer points. The key points have been summarized into Table 4. Table 4: Stakeholder Discussion Points PROBLEMS POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS NMT NMT 1. 2. 3. Unevenness of footpath surfaces makes them difficult for disabled people to use. The footpaths are discontinuous and broken at many places. Safety of pedestrians and cyclists is poor. Public transit 1. The bus design is not disabled friendly. There are very high steps which makes ingress and egress very difficult. 2. The buses are also not friendly for the blind 3. The buses are crowded, which is especially discouraging for women. 4. There are no seats reserved for women to encourage them to use the bus. 5. The frequency, routes, network and bus numbers are not sufficient. 6. Tram services have not been considered. 7. Access to public transit is poor. 8. Students prefer public transit as it is cheap, but most use private vehicles as they are more convenient. 9. Buses don’t stop at designated stops. Amenities 1. 2. 3. 4. Road signage is poor. Public toilets are insufficient in number and are in poor condition. There are not enough open spaces. Many plans and studies are never implemented. Others 1. The number of private vehicles is increasing. 2. Air and noise pollution are increasing. 3. Traffic enforcement is poor. 1. 2. Better designs for walking and cycling should be carried out. Pilot projects should be created to increase acceptance by public and government. Public transit 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Bus infrastructure and maintenance and operations should be streamlined. Incentives for using public transit should be provided. The city should pursue transit oriented development and planning. Auto rickshaw stands should be created to regulate their parking and coordinate pick-ups. Different agencies should work to better coordinate their work. Passenger Information systems should be brought in to improve the system. Policies and studies 1. 2. 3. Traffic studies should be carried out frequently, as the last one was done in 2007. Plans and studies should be implemented. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) could be brought in for better enforcement. Others 1. Disincentives for private vehicle use should be created. 2. Parking should be restricted to curb vehicle use. 20 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City The FGDs were successful at eliciting the opinions of representatives of a variety of disadvantaged groups. These opinions will be very helpful moving forwards with planning in the city. However, the FGDs were not able to foster a conversation among members of the same group to delve into a more detailed analysis of existing problems. In future iterations of the tool, more focus group discussions should be held, and more time and resources should be dedicated to planning and conducting the FGDs. This will result in more robust discussion among members of disadvantaged groups. 21 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 6. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY The survey was conducted in neighborhoods selected to serve as proxies for the rest of the city. The method of selecting neighborhoods was based on the neighborhood typologies, including income, distance from the core, and access to public or informal public transit characteristics, as described in Section 4.2. A group of public officials and some members of the survey team met and brainstormed a list of neighborhoods that would likely fit the loose definition of each typology. The list was shortened after discussing the merits of each neighborhood. Then, the all groups traveled to the neighborhoods to verify whether they met the typology requirements. After the full survey team arrived, the neighborhoods were revisited and modified as the definition of the typologies became better defined. Because the typology definitions were not clear before the neighborhoods were selected, there was some confusion and disagreement about which neighborhoods should be included to represent the 12 different typologies. The final neighborhoods selected represented the most typical instances of each typology as possible, with as little variation or ambiguity about each factor. For example, when selecting a low-income area, preference was given to neighborhoods that were overwhelmingly low-income over more mixed-income neighborhoods. To determine the sample size within each neighborhood, time and budget were the constraining factors. Several methodologies, including the “proportion” and “mean” methods, as well as generally accepted rules of thumb were considered to determine a final sample size. A more detailed discussion of this process can be found in the “Quick Guide: Conducting Rapid Household Surveys” methodology. Ultimately, the sample size was a trade-off between the degree of precision desired and the available budget. The household surveys were carried out on the 4th, 5th, and 6th of March 2013. Student volunteers from Nashik Institute of Technology (NIT) and from College of Architecture and Centre for Design (CANS) were assigned the various neighborhood of the city. The students were divided into groups of 2 and each neighborhood was assigned many groups with professors supervising each neighborhood. Before the actual surveys, an orientation/training program was held for all the student volunteers and professors (supervisors) at the Institution of Engineers. The objective of the orientation was to explain the background of the project to the volunteers and to train them in the interview process. Sessions on the walkability survey and the TRAM methodology were presented by CAA and ITDP to introduce the volunteers to the concepts of sustainable transport, transport planning. Then, a mock interview was held so that each of the questions and the required answers were understood by both volunteers and supervisors. 22 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 10: Student Volunteers and Other Invitees at the Orientation Program As mentioned in the methodology report, the neighborhoods were selected based on different combinations of income levels, location from city centre and connectivity to public transit. A long list of neighborhoods was prepared during the initial scoping visit in February with the assistance of NMC, ITDP, Clean Air Asia and Nashik First, a local NGO during a meeting. The selected neighborhoods were also plotted on a map to get an idea of the spread, with the goal of a somewhat even distribution of surveyed neighborhoods across the city. During the second visit, a reconnaissance survey was carried out to each of the neighborhoods to assess whether the neighborhood fit the required typology criteria. Observed criteria for income levels included the quality of housing, observed automobile ownership, and discussions with local residents and merchants. Observed criteria for connectivity to public transit were the availability of bus stops, auto rickshaw access, and resident descriptions of transit access. Location from the city centre was determined through maps of the city. Based on the neighborhood reconnaissance, the list of neighborhoods was modified as some areas did not fit the exact category or were more suited to a different category. A total of twelve neighborhoods were selected, one for each typology. The typologies and corresponding neighborhoods are provided in Table 5. During the reconnaissance visit, local leaders and/or resident welfare associations were identified and consulted to seek assistance and cooperation while carrying out surveys. 23 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Table 5: Typologies and Corresponding Neighborhoods 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Typology* Core - Low - Connected Core - Middle - Connected Core - High - Connected Core - Low - not connected Core - Middle - not connected Neighborhood Malar Khan Dwarka Near Navsha Ganpathi Temple Rajiv Nagar and Wadala Gaon Govind Nagar Core - High - Not connected Periphery - Low - connected Periphery - middle - connected Periphery - high - connected Periphery - low - not connected Periphery - middle - not connected NA* (No suitable neighborhood) Utkarsh Nagar CIDCO & Untwadi Savarkar Nagar Sant kabir Nagar Hanuman Nagar & Satpur Road behind Anuradha Theatre Periphery - high - not connected Lawate Nagar *High, middle, low is based on income category. Core and Periphery is based on distance from CBD. Connected and not connected is based on public transit accessibility. 24 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 11: Map of survey locations8 8 Blue – High Income, Maroon – Middle, Red – Low income 25 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 12: Survey at Rajiv Nagar The surveys were conducted from 10 AM to 4 PM each day. Volunteers arrived at the survey neighborhoods and spread themselves to cover all parts of the area. Each household survey took approximately 20 to 30 minutes to complete, depending on the level of cooperation from the members. Low income households were usually the most cooperative in providing details of their incomes and travel details of all household members, as they felt that by sharing information the NMC would implement some improvements. The highincome and middle-income households were more reluctant to provide such information, as they felt that it might be misused. Most became more cooperative when shown a letter from the NMC and/or student ID cards, but some households still refused to answer some questions especially those requesting information about women and daughters attending college. As a pilot test, there were some problems encountered in the data collection. Some of the volunteers did not collect the travel information of all members of each household. Housewives were most commonly omitted, as they and other non-working members were not considered “active” commuters by respondents. Clean Air Asia and ITDP staff visited the survey areas to inspect completed surveys, provide suggestions for improvement, and clarify any questions. The observations during the day were discussed with the supervisors at a meeting in the camp office at the end of the day. The meetings and survey inspections resulted in dramatic improvements in survey quality for the rest of the survey. Since the surveys were conducted between 10 AM and 4 PM on weekdays, in many households only a housewife or retired people were at home. Sometimes these household members could not provide accurate trip distances for other members of the household. Thus, it may be useful to conduct the survey in the early 26 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City evenings when all members are at home. In some cases, especially in middle- and high-income areas, the residents did not like being disturbed in the afternoons, when it is common for many people to rest. The students’ knowledge of both English and Marathi helped in the smooth conduct of the survey in the different parts of the city. About 739 households and 2800 members were surveyed. Travel details of over 2000 people were collected. The surveys as well as the FGD and orientation events were captured in the media by both the Marathi and English newspapers (Figure 14).9 10 Figure 13: Survey in Sant Kabir Nagar (Source: Colin Hughes) 9 http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-03-03/nashik/37409983_1_transportation-ngos-city-engineer http://m.timesofindia.com/city/nashik/Nashik-Municipal-Corporation-signs-MoU-with-NGO-for-better-publictransport/articleshow/18804176.cms 10 27 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 14: News of the survey in the media 28 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 7. RESULTS AND FINDINGS FOR TEST CITY From the pilot test of the data collection component of the tool, the following results were obtained about mobility patterns in the City of Nashik. It is important to note that the methodology aims to provide a sketch analysis of mobility patterns and is not a fine-grained study. 7.1 Household Characteristics The average household expenses in low-, middle-, and high-income neighborhoods were around USD $155, $217, and $372 respectively. One of the drawbacks in this data was that many people, especially in middleand high-income households, were not willing to share information related to their expenses as they felt that it might be misused. Each neighborhood, however, was identified as low-, middle-, or high-income, based on local information and finalized during the reconnaissance survey, including the type of structure (buildings) that were present. From this, it was assumed that the households within the neighborhood largely fall into that income category, somewhat compensating for missing or incorrect household expense information. The distribution of surveyed households across the income level is shown in Table 6. Table 6: Break up of number of households based on income levels Neighborhood Income Group No of households (% of Survey) Low Income 325 (44%) Middle Income 287 (39%) High Income 124 (17%) The cost per inhabitant was determined based on stated costs for transit and paratransit trips. Based on this analysis, the average expenditure on transport is around 2% in the surveyed areas, but there is wide variation in low-income transit expenses (Table 7). Of the expenses, the average cost per capita per month is USD $3.10. This is slightly lower than the CMP estimate of 4% of total income spent on transit. In general, transit expenses account for 2-10% of total household income in developing countries11. It should be noted that for both low and middle-income households, the mode share for walking and cycling trips, made at no cost to the household, is above 60%. 11 http://cleanairinitiative.org/portal/sites/default/files/Framework_for_Achieving_Sustainable_Urban_Mobility_in_ Asia_-_CAI-Asia_2010_0.pdf, http://www.chinadailyapac.com/article/food-costs-half-poor-families-earnings and http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTOGMC/Resources/336929-1266963339030/eifd16_expenditure.pdf 29 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Table 7: Range of Expenses on Transport Income group Expenses Range Low Income 1% - 7% Middle Income 1% - 3% High Income 1% - 2% It is interesting to compare the travel costs in terms of time spent on transportation. Table 8 shows the following breakdown. The higher trip times for the lower and middle income groups is likely due to a much larger number of walking trips than for high-income groups. Table 8: Average Time Spent on Transport per trip Income group Minutes per Trip Low Income 24 Middle Income 25 High Income 17 7.2 Transport and Travel Characteristics The household surveys revealed a clear picture of the mobility patterns of people, including trip rates, trip lengths, mode of travel, amount spent on transit, and travel and waiting times. The survey also captured local preferences for walking and cycling infrastructure and the environment surrounding those modes. The environment for public transit (bus) and auto rickshaws use as well as travel characteristics were also captured in the survey. Additional information collected includes the number of vehicles owned and accidents suffered in each household. The results are juxtaposed with the Comprehensive Mobility Plan indicators to understand how the TRAM survey data compares to previous, more lengthy and costly data collection efforts. Other unique characteristics that are usually not captured by the CMP are also discussed. An attempt is made to understand how each factor (e.g. income levels, location and connectivity) affects mobility. Trip Rate A trip is defined as the travel undertaken between a single origin and a single destination. A journey from home to the store and back would count as two trips. The average trip rate for the surveyed area is 2.7, meaning that the average person makes 2.7 trips per day. This rate increased as income increased, with the trip rates for low-, middle and high-income families equaling 2.45, 2.69, and 2.92 respectively, indicating a greater ability for higher income people to travel more. Since the average household in the surveyed area included 3.7 people, this equals around 10 trips per household per day. Based on this information, the total number of trips generated per day for the entire city is likely around 4.5 million passenger trips per day. 30 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Table 9: Range of Trip Rate across Income, Age and Gender 0-21 Years Male 21-60 Years Female Male 61+ Years Female Male Female High Income 2.7-3.3 2.2-3.2 2.5-3.2 2.5-3.4 2.1-4 2-2.3 Middle Income 2.6-3 2.2-2.9 2.3-2.8 2.1-2.7 1.9-3.7 2-7 Low Income 2.4-3 1.9-2.5 2.4-2.6 2.3-2.4 2.4-2.7 1.8-2 Surveyed Area 2.76 2.46 2.62 2.54 2.64 2.52 Table 10: Trip Rates based on Typology and Gender Typology Core - Low - Connected Core - Middle - Connected Core - High - Connected Core - Low - not connected Core - Middle - not connected Periphery - Low - connected Periphery - middle - connected Periphery - high - connected Periphery - low - not connected Periphery - middle - not connected Periphery - high - not connected Male 2.58 2.83 3.09 2.45 2.90 2.65 2.85 2.52 2.47 Female 2.28 2.76 2.90 2.36 2.66 2.37 2.45 2.44 2.28 Average 2.45 2.80 3.00 2.43 2.83 2.54 2.69 2.48 2.40 2.63 3.04 2.59 3.36 2.62 3.19 At the city level, males aged 21 and below are found to have the highest trip rate, 2.76, while females in the same age bracket have the lowest, 2.46. Across income levels, the higher income neighborhoods generated more trips than middle and low-income neighborhoods. Interestingly, the Comprehensive Mobility Plan provides a much lower estimate of the per capita trip rate (1.68). This may be mainly due to neglecting walking trips and other shorter trips. The CMP also suggests that the walking trip mode share is only 28% while the TRAM surveys indicate 50% walking trip mode share, when evaluated by trip segment. This may be due to difference in how the mode share was calculated. If data is collected by primary mode, many walk trips that are segments of other trips would not be included in the results. If data was collected by kilometer traveled, the shorter length of walking trips would result in a lower percentage of total trip length. Mode Share by Trip Segment The TRAM calculates the mode share in a different manner than many traditional approaches. This methodology evaluates all trip segments, door-to-door, instead of just the primary segment, with all segments weighted equally. For example, a trip that involves a 10 minute walk, a 20 minute bus ride, and a 5 minute auto rickshaw ride will count as one walk segment, one bus segment, and one auto rickshaw segment. This method places a greater emphasis on walking and other non-motorized transport modes than 31 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City traditional mode share calculations, which tend to under represent these modes, as they are almost never consider the “primary” mode. While a relatively small number of trips occur solely by walking, walking accounts for a large portion of travel, especially for lower-income communities and women. This method attempts to better accounts for those trips. One of the major findings of the survey was very high share of the pedestrian segments in the city. Over 50% of trip segments are made by walking, as shown in Table 11. It should be noted again that this includes walking trip segments, even when they are part of a larger trip made by other modes. The walking trip segments differ based on the income category of the neighborhood. However, due to a mixture of land uses throughout all parts of the city there was no significant walking segment mode share difference between core area and periphery. In terms of passenger kilometer travel (PKM), the 50% walking mode share by segment translates to only 14% of PKM (almost certainly due to shorter walking trip lengths). Interestingly, 12% of bus mode share by trip segment translates to 32% of PKM mode share (due to longer bus trip lengths) Table 11: Mode Share of Passenger Trip Segments by Location, Income and Connectivity Typology Core - Low - Connected Core - Low - Not Connected Core - Middle - Connected Core - Middle - Not Connected Core - High - Connected Periphery - Low - Connected Periphery - Low - Not Connected Periphery - Middle - Connected Periphery - Middle - Not Connected Periphery - High - Connected Periphery - High - Not Connected Surveyed Area Bus 16% 11% 14% 13% 2% 20% 5% 14% 19% 7% 9% 13% Car 3% 3% 4% 10% 42% 0% 6% 6% 4% 11% 37% 8% 2 Wheeler 12% 21% 6% 19% 24% 12% 9% 20% 17% 23% 24% 14% Auto Rickshaw 17% 20% 9% 4% 9% 15% 15% 10% 8% 9% 7% 11% Walk 47% 42% 67% 51% 21% 50% 63% 45% 51% 48% 21% 52% Cycle 5% 3% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2% 32 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% cycle Auto Rickshaw 2 Wheeler walk Taxi male f emale male f emale male f emale car Bus below 21 21-60 61 and above Figure 15: Trip Mode Share by Segment for Surveyed Areas For poorly connected low-income areas, such as Wadala Gaon and Rajiv Nagar, two wheelers and auto rickshaws are a significant source of mobility, accounting for 47% and 30% of trips, respectively. Walking is also dominant mode among the middle-income areas, ranging from 45%-67% of trips. In Dwarka, a middleincome area in the central city, 67% of trip segments were made by walking, 14% by bus, and 6% by twowheeler. Peripheral and poorly connected areas (Satpur Road, CIDCO, Govind Nagar, Untwadi) have a high percentage of two-wheeler and three-wheeler trip segments. Hanuman Nagar, another middle-income peripheral neighborhood, has a high percentage of trip segments by bus (21%). In general, high-income neighborhoods have lower percentages of walking trips than middle- and low-income areas. Cycling trips accounted for a significant percentage of trip segments (7%) in the young age group (below 21 years). With increasing age, the popularity of cycling diminishes, accounting for only 3% of trip segments for the 21-60 age group. 33 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Auto Rickshaw, 12% Cycle, 2% Bus, 32% 2 Wheeler, 26% Car, 13% Walk, 14% Figure 16: Mode Share by Passenger-km Vehicle Ownership The city has motorization index of 300 -- 300 vehicles for every 1000 people. The survey corroborates this; 75% of households own a motorized vehicle in the city. Average vehicle ownership per household is 1.24 vehicles. The ownership varies with income category and public transit accessibility, as seen in Table 12. Neighborhoods well connected by public transit appear to have lower vehicle ownership rates across income profile. This is a significant finding from the survey and it supports the idea that improvements to transit access in neighborhoods will reduce motor vehicle ownership and use, regardless of income levels. Table 12: Percent of Households Owning Vehicles by Neighborhood Typology Typology Core - Low - Connected Core - Low - not connected Core - Middle - Connected Core - Middle - not connected Core - High - Connected Periphery - Low - connected Periphery - Low - not connected Periphery - Middle - connected Periphery - Middle - not connected Periphery - High - connected Periphery - High - not connected Car 7% 11% 24% 38% 91% 4% 5% 29% 38% 48% 91% cycle 21% 13% 18% 25% 18% 17% 20% 26% 25% 14% 28% 2 Wheeler 33% 70% 56% 78% 94% 50% 54% 83% 78% 72% 72% 34 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Interestingly, while 19% of the households own a cycle (non-motorized), cycling constitutes only 3% of all trip segments. Thus there may be a latent demand for better cycling infrastructure to make use of these cycles. In addition, nearly 50% of households did not have dedicated motorized vehicle parking space, indicating a reliance on informal vehicle storage solutions. 80% 67% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 26% 19% 20% 10% 4% 0% Car cycle 2 Wheeler Auto Rickshaw Figure 17: Citywide Vehicle Ownership In low-income neighborhoods, over 50% of households own motorized two wheelers, with even higher percentages in areas of poor connectivity such as Rajiv Nagar (70%) and Wadala Gaon (67%). However, in well-connected core areas like Malhar Khan the ownership is much lower (33%), again indicating that with availability of good public transit people may be less likely to own and use personal vehicles. In the high-income neighborhoods such as Lawate Nagar and near Navsha Ganpati Temple, car ownership is as high as 90%. Two wheeler ownership is also above 70% in all 3 high-income neighborhoods. Savarkar Nagar, better connected than other high-income areas, has lower car ownership rates (48%). Middle-income areas register higher ownership of two wheelers. Poorly connected areas (Govind Nagar, Satpur Road, near Anuradha Theater) and peripheral areas (Hanuman Nagar, CIDCO, Untwadi) have very high ownership of two wheelers (over 75%) and higher than average car ownership (over 25% in most areas). Dwarka, which is within the core area and is well-connected, has the lowest level of two wheelers ownership (56%), and higher percentages of walking (67%) and bus (14%) trips. Average Speed Average speeds were determined from survey respondent estimates of travel times and distances. Some of this data was removed as it was beyond physical possibility. The remaining data is also less reliable, as respondent recollection of distances and times are rarely accurate. Many respondents also estimated these results for other members of the household. Figure 18 provides the average speeds for different modes. Core areas of the city had lower speeds compared to the peripheral areas. Also the bus speeds were 35 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City lower than the car. The current speed of public transit buses is comparative to larger, more congested Indian cities like Bangalore. Cycle 9 Auto Rickshaw 12 2 Wheeler 18 Walk 5 Taxi 20 Car 22 Bus 17 0 5 10 15 20 25 Figure 18: Average Speeds (kmph) of Different Modes Trip Lengths The average trip length in the surveyed areas is around 5km. Nearly 80% of the passenger trips in the city are under 5km, a reasonable distance to travel by bicycle. The CMP results show a 4.3km average trip length including walk trips and 5.8km length excluding walk trips. People in the age group of 21 to 60 have the longest trip lengths, with males travelling longer than females. Core areas have comparatively lower trip lengths than the peripheral areas. Figure 19 shows the average trip lengths in the city. 36 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Cycle 3.1 Auto Rickshaw 4.1 2 Wheeler 5.7 Walk 1 Taxi 5 Car 7.2 Bus 8.8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Figure 19: Average Trip Length (km) by Mode in Surveyed Areas Below 61 and 21 21-60 Above Lower income members range from 3.7 to 6.5km across gender and location, while middle-income members range from 4.3 to 6.9km and high-income from 4 to 6.4 km. Female Male Female Male Female Male 3.26 2.64 3.70 6.29 4.10 4.84 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Figure 20: Average Trip length (km) of City Travel by Age and Gender Average Fuel Efficiency The average fuel efficiency values for different vehicles based on the surveys are shown in Figure 21 below. The results of the study correspond to the results of other studies on vehicles fuel efficiency in India, indicating that the fuel efficiency values are well known to vehicle users. 37 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 60 48 50 40 28 30 20 16 10 0 Car Auto Rickshaw 2 Wheeler Figure 21: Average Fuel Efficiency in kmpl Other Insights a) Over 3% of households include persons with disability. b) 18% of interviewed households have one or more member involved in recent traffic accidents. c) Nearly 15% of residences are more than 30 years old (with 5% more than 60 years old). Older houses are generally located the low-income areas. d) Cost per passenger kilometer travel for two wheeler is comparable to bus travel Priorities During the survey, residents were asked to rank the top priorities for transportation improvements from a list of options provided in the questionnaire. The top 3 most priorities for each mode are listed in Table 13. Table 13: Top Priorities of Citizens Mode Pedestrians Auto rickshaw Cyclists Top Priorities Separate footpaths for walking Clean and clear street edges More trees and greenery Greater safety Less waiting time Lower fare Separate tracks for cycling Secure cycle parking Cycles available for short-term (30 minutes) borrowing 38 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Public transit Greater safety Less waiting time More seating Interestingly, there is not much of the difference between the priorities among the gender groups. However, the priorities differ by income level and neighborhoods but no clear trend could be established using income and area differentiation. 7.3 Summary of Preliminary Findings The following is a summary of preliminary findings about the city of Nashik, based on the results from the areas that were surveyed. These findings will provide the base point from which proposals for improvements to the city’s transportation system can viewed. It should be repeated that the survey only covered a selection of neighborhood typologies that together will represent all other areas of the city. Therefore, while the results for each typology are final, the citywide conclusions drawn here will vary depending on the distribution of typologies across the city. a) Transport expenditure of low-income groups varies from 1 to 7% of total monthly expenses. b) Neighborhoods that are well-connected by public transit have lower vehicle ownership rates across all income levels. c) 50% of trip segments are made by walking, with a citywide average walk trip length of 1km. Peripheral areas include high rates of walking trips despite poor walkability. d) Nearly 80% of the passenger trips in the city are less than 5km. e) The current speed of public transit buses in Nashik is comparable to more congested Indian cities like Bangalore. f) The average household among those surveyed generates around 10-12 trips per day. g) Nearly 50% of households do not have a dedicated parking space. 39 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 8. ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT INTERVENTIONS USING TRAM TRAM allows users to evaluate the impacts of several different scenarios for future transport sector investments based on data from the household surveys and the TEEMP City tool, specifically modified to work with the TRAM methodology. The following section describes the analysis of several interventions into the transportation system. The findings of citywide transportation characteristics, described in Section 7.3, show that the city has high rates of walking, good transit access, slow transit speeds, and low levels of car ownership, especially along transit corridors. Based on these results, the following three different intervention scenarios were developed and analyzed: 1. Business-As-Usual Scenario – The represents the types of investments that have been taking place recently in the city. Most of this investment focuses on reducing motor vehicle congestion through flyovers and other road expansions and improvements. 2. Metro-Focused scenario – This represents a proposed scenario to invest heavily in metro systems for Nashik. Most money is invested in Metro systems, with some additional money invested in pedestrian walkways, mainly in areas surrounding metro stations. 3. Sustainable Transport Scenario – This scenario represents an investment scenario that focuses on developing a comprehensive BRT network, with a complementary bicycle network and pedestrian network providing access to short distance destination and BRT stations. If feasible, additional funds would go to a bike share system. The results of the intervention analysis are shown in Figure 22. The Business-As-Usual Scenario may contribute to move more people, but it has very little effect on CO2 emissions and is skewed towards higher income populations. The Metro-Focused Scenario can benefit many poor residents, but it has a high cost, and will likely take the longest to implement. It also produces a significant reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030. The Sustainable Transport Scenario produces the largest benefits, which skew towards low-income populations. The Sustainable Transport Scenario also has significantly lower costs than the Metro-Focused Scenario and produces much higher levels of CO2 emissions reductions than the other scenarios. Each scenario is described in greater detail below. Project characteristics Type of Project Scenario 1: BAU Flyover Scenario 2: Metro- Metro/Rail Focused Pedestrian Walkway Scenario 3: Sustainable Transport BRT Pedestrian Walkway Bicycle Network Opening Year value Unit Cost (million USD) Beneficiaries (No. of people) Low Income Middle Income High Income CO2 Savings Cost Cost Savings per ton CO2 per Annual Savings TOTAL through 2030 Savings Beneficiary (tons / year) (tons) ($ / ton) 750,000 80 n/a 2018 100 lanes 60 153,426 467,196 129,378 2024 2014 10 km 300 km TOTAL 370 12 382 46,379 136,771 183,150 158,151 355,917 514,068 5,470 36,282 41,753 210,000 528,970 738,970 2017 2015 2016 50 km 600 km 120 km TOTAL 120 24 18 162 154,596 273,542 294,913 723,051 527,169 711,834 663,746 1,902,750 18,234 72,564 145,978 236,777 700,000 1,057,940 1,104,637 2,862,578 517 62,000.00 0.02 62,000.02 434,000.00 0.41 434,000.41 880 57 250,000.00 0.05 30,000.00 280,000.05 3,500,000.00 0.77 450,000.00 3,950,000.77 41 Figure 22: Results of Intervention Analysis 40 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City Figure 23: Results of Intervention Analysis Business as usual scenario In the Business as Usual scenario a total of 25 four-lane flyovers would be built at an estimated cost of approximately 60 million US Dollars. The total project would benefit an estimated 750,000 people with access to motor vehicles, most of whom would be vehicle owners in the middle or upper income bracket. This comes at a cost of $80 per person benefitting, the second lowest of the three scenarios. While nearly all highincome residents could benefit (97% own motor vehicles), a much smaller proportion of low-income residents (55% own motor vehicles) could benefit. 41 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City The construction of new flyovers would likely lead to slightly shorter trip times for each motor vehicle trip. However, these benefits would likely be limited to the short term, as this approach would encourage increased automobile use which would quickly occupy the additional capacity of the new facilities, reducing the amount of time-savings they provide. While the separation of some motor vehicle trips from pedestrian and cyclist trips might improve safety in the short term, the overall trend towards increased motor vehicle use would likely reduce safety in the medium and long term. The scenario has very few benefits to the population that does not own motor vehicles. These populations might experience decreased mobility from the construction of roadway improvements that limit the number of places where it is possible to cross a roadway on foot or by cycle. As the construction of road improvements will likely induce more driving, the emissions reductions from decreased congestion would be offset by more vehicle trips, results in no overall reduction in CO2 emissions. Metro-focused scenario The Metro-focused scenario would include the construction of a 10km metro system, at a cost of 370 million US Dollars. This project would move over 210,000 people per day, most of whom currently use public transit or auto rickshaws. The benefits come at a cost of nearly $517 per person benefitting, by far the highest cost of the three scenarios. The system would provide large time savings for many trips along the metro corridor, as well as shorter wait times, and more reliable trip times. However, the time to plan and complete a metro system would likely stretch at least 10 years, for an opening date of 2024 at the earliest. The scenario also includes 300km of new pedestrian footpaths to provide better access to metro stations at a cost of 12 million US Dollars. With a total of over 3,000 km of streets in Nashik, this would be equivalent to new footpaths on 10% of city streets. The footpaths would benefit an estimated 530,000 residents in the city, who would experience a more comfortable and safer walking environment. These benefits from these two interventions would likely continue over many years, as the footpaths continue to allow improved pedestrian access to the metro. With a cost of $390 million, this is the most expensive scenario. The yearly CO2 savings under this scenario are 3.5 million tons of CO2 by 2030, at a cost of $880 dollars per ton mitigated by 2030. This is significantly less cost-effective than the Sustainable Transport Scenario, partly due to the long time period required to design and construct a metro system. Sustainable Transport Scenario The Sustainable Transport Scenario would include the construction of a 50km bus rapid transit system, at a cost of 120 million US Dollars. The BRT component of this project would move over 700,000 people per day, most of whom currently use public transit or auto rickshaws. The system would provide large time savings for many trips along the BRT network, as well as shorter wait times and more reliable trip times. The scenario also includes 600 km of new pedestrian footpaths to provide better access to BRT stations and destination between, at a cost of 24 million US Dollars. With a total of over 3,000 km of streets in Nashik, this would be equivalent to new footpaths on 20% of city streets. The footpaths could benefit up to 1,000,000 residents in the city, who would experience a more comfortable and safer walking environment. Finally, the scenario includes a 120km bicycle network, at a cost of $18 million. This would also benefit approximately 1,000,000 residents, providing bicycle access on 4% of the city’s streets. The pedestrian and bicycle improvements benefit a wide cross-section of the city’s population, including those with walking trips, and those with short 42 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City bus and auto-rickshaw trips. The projects would improve safety and comfort and provide an additional choice in mobility. The benefits come at a cost of approximately $57 per person benefitting, the lowest cost of the three scenarios. By reducing the need for a private automobile, the benefits from these interventions would likely compound over the years by limiting the increase in congestion and pollution. By 2030, the scenario is estimated to reduce CO2 emissions by 3.9 million tons, which at a price of $41 per ton of CO2 mitigated, is the most costeffective of the three. With a total scenario cost of $162 million, this is the second most expensive scenario, but the one with the highest cost-benefit. This scenario will benefit more citizens of Nashik – and, notably, more poor citizens of Nashik – over a much longer period of time and reduce more greenhouse gases all at a lower price 43 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City 9. KEY TAKEAWAYS BASED ON PILOT TESTING The pilot test of the TRAM tool provided a number of lessons about the tool. This section first provides a detailed summary of the lessons learned from the test. Then, a general overview of the main successes, shortcoming, and opportunities for improvement is provided. Detailed Takeaways The following section summarizes the details of specific takeaways from the pilot test of the data collection portion of the TRAM tool. a) The analysis of the city’s income distribution was difficult to complete, as no group of experts knowledgeable in the entire city was available. A separate data collection methodology was used instead. b) The citywide analysis to classify the city into different typologies should be conducted before selecting the neighborhoods to survey. This way, neighborhoods can be selected from the typologies in the city that have already been agreed upon making the process quicker, more consistent, and more transparent. c) A greater number of focus group discussions should be conducted to produce a wider range of responses. Also, the focus groups should be better segregated to ensure that members of different groups feel free to discuss their thoughts and elaborate on the thoughts of other participants. d) The Survey Form could be simplified to enable people to understand the questions better and complete it faster. In general, the survey form should replace fill-in-the-blank questions with multiple choice answers wherever possible and provide greater detail on the type of data requested. This would make data collection and entry faster and more accurate. It will also reduce the burden of researcher to clean up the data. Form 3, particularly need revision as it was time consuming and confusing to many people. Some data on the form was redundant and can be removed. e) The survey form could also be revised to produce better results for income. The income field was changed to a range to seem less probing of specific details about the family. In future versions, the question could be moved to the end of the survey, where the information is more likely to be provided. f) Surveyors could be better trained to recognize errors during the survey, such as 1 km trip that takes 20min in a two-wheeler. Volunteers could probably request again for realistic answers. Finally, expense and income data can be collected in ranges to account for privacy concerns. g) The survey could start early in the day or on a holiday, times when the key decision maker in the family is more likely to be at home. Members of middle- and high-income households did not like to be disturbed in the afternoon as they were resting at that time. h) Involving students was a good initiative as they not only understood the importance of the survey but were also educated and trained in sustainable transportation. i) The scoping visit to finalize neighborhoods was essential. Reconnaissance of neighborhoods should be carried out to verify if the neighborhoods fall under the required typology. It would be ideal not to have areas with mixed income groups; but if it cannot be avoided, the volunteers and supervisors should be explained carefully on the type of household to approach. While income can often be estimated based on the type of structure, it can become very difficult to differentiate, for example, between a (upper end) low-income and (lower end) middle-income house. j) Support of the local administration is obligatory. This will bring in other stakeholders and garner greater acceptance from the citizens. 44 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City k) Meeting with local representatives for access to households is very important, especially in middleand high-income areas, where people are wary of giving out personal data such as travel routes, time and income, especially data concerning women and daughters in college. l) A good grasp of local language is very important. The focus group discussions should be ideally carried out in the local language to help lower income groups and other marginalized people feel comfortable to speak freely. The survey forms should also be translated into the local language for greater ease. m) Data collected and analyzed using TRAM tool provided valuable results in the mobility pattern of the pilot city. The TEEMP-City tool should be modified so that more results from the survey are scaled up to represent the entire city. n) The detailed reports of Comprehensive Mobility Plan from Nashik can be collected and analyzed using the CMP component of TEEMP-City tool to evaluate the mobility plan impact and suggest necessary alternatives based on current data collection efforts. o) The analysis of the transport intervention scenarios requires careful scaling to ensure that a plausible scenario is proposed. The current methodology assesses project impacts on a linear scale. However, for most projects the scale of impacts grows along an S curve. For smaller project sizes, each additional unit of project produces more benefit that the unit before it. For example, 5km metro system will move more people per km than a 2km metro system, by providing access to more destinations. For larger project sizes, projects may reach a saturation point, where fewer people benefit from additional unit of project. For example, if a 40km metro system already covers most of a city, a 50km system will move fewer people per km than the 40km system. A future revision could address this shortcoming. p) The intervention analysis does not provide much quantitative detail about the cost, time savings, and safety impacts of various projects. These factors could be added to future revisions of the tool. q) The intervention analysis is limited to only six types of intervention, omitting some frequently-used project types. More interventions could be added in a future revision of the tool. r) The intervention analysis is limited to short-term impacts. It does not account for the changes to the physical structure of the city that typically occur based on transportation interventions. BRT and Metro tend to drive up housing demand near stations, leading to a more compact city, whereas highways and flyovers tend to encourage lower-density development at the outer edges of a city. These developments, in turn, change the overall mobility patterns of the city. A future revision of the tool could address these long term impacts of various intervention scenarios. Overall Assessment Generally, the survey was quite successful at providing useful and detailed data about travel patterns for a carefully selected, diverse group of neighborhoods and people in Nashik. The household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted with relatively few problems. The problems that were encountered helped the team to revise and improve the tool for future applications. The neighborhoods that were surveyed represent a wide range of income groups, levels of transit access, and locations in the city. The data collected provide an interesting snapshot into mobility patterns in the surveyed areas. The methodology used to expand the data to represent the entire city also seems to provide a good estimate of citywide trends, although it is difficult to verify this assessment. The pilot test experienced some difficulty in the classification of the entire city and the analysis of proposed interventions. The original methodology for classifying income levels was not possible, and the revised methodology was much more time and resource intensive than intended. More critically, for the analysis of intervention scenarios, there was difficulty developing an appropriate scale of intervention scenario, there was limited range of results, which were at a very low-level of confidence. 45 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City With some modifications, this data collection methodology can be very effective in cities with little capacity or resources, providing an alternative to the traditional, resource-intensive city-wide mobility surveys. The citywide expansion methodology could be slightly modified to ensure a smoother collection of data and selection of survey neighborhoods. The analysis of interventions can also be useful, mainly for cities with very little direction for future transportation improvements. There are, however, many more shortcomings with the intervention analysis, and improving them would require a significantly larger amount of resources, and the resulting tool might still generate limited impact on the process of urban transportation planning in many cities. Thus, investments to improve the tool will likely provide the best value if directed towards further developing the data collection methodology. 46 Tool for Rapid Assessment of Urban Mobility – Pilot Test in Nashik City ANNEXES Annex A. List of Stakeholders Name Ravindra Patny Hari Raj Pardesi Ashwini A N Amrutha Pawar Anagha Patil Dhananjay Risodkar Arun Talekar P B Chavan Kuldeep Chaware Shantanu Autade Pradeep Kale Deepal Jhadav Purshotam Puri Sanjay Joshi Manoj Gupta Nilesh Chavan Krunal Patil Shailesh Devi Dhananjay Shinde Gurmeet Bagga Mamta Patel Occupation/Representative Group Educationist, Handicapped Visually handicapped Private sector Women's Representative Architect Architect Media Govt. Urban Designer Urban Designer Architect Architect Doctor Architect Architect Architect Education, Citizen Architect Architect Corporator Student 47