An E-Learning Industry Update
By Tom Barron
E-Learning We
Market
The numbers from market leaders show strength amid a sea of technology weakness. That's because elearning is able to demonstrate its value even in a cost-cutting climate. But the downturn is hastening a
consolidation that's inevitable as the industry matures.
Consultants Re
Learning Land
The e-learning field picked a tough time to hold a coming-out party.
The recent economic slump has collided headlong with rising awareness of the benefits of
online learning as a source of competitive advantage. A broadening body of successful case
studies from large-scale e-learning implementations have fostered a positive buzz around the
field. Providers of learning technologies have been increasingly able to demonstrate costsavings and broader benefits, develop integrated offerings, and propose innovative ways of
applying e-learning. Training professionals, while suspicious of marketing claims and "total
solution" promises, have become enthusiastic about the medium's potential. The term "elearning" is now widely recognized in both corporate and consumer circles, and recent trade
and consumer press coverage of the field has been markedly more enthusiastic than earlier
accounts.
At the same time, use of e-learning in higher education is exploding, with nearly half of U.S.
colleges now providing some form of distance learning (see "Universitites Discover ELearning"). That figure is expected to grow to nearly 90 percent by 2004, according to one
industry forecast. Strong growth in the higher-education segment is seen as a catalyst for
further gains in the corporate e-learning arena, which is projected to grow to $20 billion by
2005 from roughly $3.5 million in 2000.
However, those positive developments come amid a backdrop of sour economic news in the
United States and, to a lesser extent, in Europe--two areas which are e-learning's primary
incubators. The fledging industry has seen the same valuation drop in publicly held stocks and
abrupt scarcity of venture capital that plague others in the IT arena. The financial fragility of
many firms in the sector, particularly privately funded startups, is evident in a recent string of
bankruptcies, mergers, and acquisitions. The length of the current slowdown and venture
capital skepticism for IT firms will determine the fate of many smaller e-learning providers. It
will also affect the budgets and purchasing patterns of corporate training departments and
business units seeking to adopt e-learning technologies.
Jan
Feb 2001
Mar 2001
Apr 2001
May 2001
Tom Barron is an
analyst in the Lea
program of SRI C
Intelligence, whic
research and anal
and business trend
learning arena (w
bi.com/lod).
2001
Headlight
Bankruptcies
Acquisitions
Learning
Brands
Pensare
Virtual
Heaven
Intellinex
Acquires
Teach.com
Mergers
Learncom
Acquires
TrainSeek
SmartForce
Acquires
ICGlobal
Centra
Acquires
MindLever
Saba
Acquires
HPT
Learn2.com
Merges
with
EStamp
Sector-defying performance
Fortunately, the economic slowdown, while troublesome for cash-poor startups in the IT
sector, appears not to be affecting revenues of e-learning providers to the same degree as
other IT areas, at least during the first five months of the year. Recent quarterly filings by three
of the largest public e-learning providers--SmartForce, Saba, and Docent--reveal strong
earnings despite the tech sector's valuation drop and industry-wide cost-cutting. SmartForce
posted revenues of $61 million in the first quarter of the year, up 115 percent over the same
quarter last year, pushing the company firmly onto profitable ground. Saba's fiscal third
quarter, which covers the period from December through February, saw revenues increase
179 percent over the comparable prior quarter on revenues of $14.5 million. And Docent's first
quarter revenues of $7 million represent a ten-fold increase over its comparable quarter last
year and a 26 percent gain over the fourth quarter of 2000. Strong quarterly results were also
posted by Centra Software, DigitalThink, and SkillSoft.
Of course, not all public e-learning providers have fared so well. Learn2.com's first quarter
revenues of $5.6 million represent only a 2 percent gain over the comparable prior quarter,
though cost-cutting helped it increase profits 24 percent over the previous quarter. Caliber
Learning Network, which delayed release of its Q1 2001 results until late May, saw its
revenues decline 32 percent over the first quarter of the previous year (the company has since
suspended operations). VCampus eked out a 15 percent gain in its first quarter revenues over
the comparable prior quarter on revenues of $1.8 million.
The solid performance of many public firms is in striking contrast to their stock prices, many of
which saw reductions of 50 percent or more between December 2000 and February 2001.
Some have since recovered ground, while others are fighting to maintain their listings on the
major exchanges. Market leaders have seen their stock prices rebound to their initial public
offering (IPO) levels, and one--SkillSoft--climbed to record highs on investor confidence in its
content-focused business model. Others have seen sharp devaluations that reflect market
doubts about second-tier players in the crowded vendor arena.
Stock valuations aside, vendors report steady demand among buyers despite the economic
weakness. They attribute this to both increased recognition of e-learning 's potential and to the
growing breadth of their e-learning sales and distribution channels. Their bullish outlook is
borne out by some recent buyer surveys. Some 85 percent of 300 U.S. and Canadian
organizations recently surveyed by research firm Taylor Nelson Sofres reported plans to
increase their e-learning investments this year.
A more bankable indicator of demand can be found in the number of significant e-learning
contracts signed in the first quarter. They include several multimillion dollar deals won by
Saba, SkillSoft, SmartForce, THINQ, and VCampus, among others. Saba reported four
contracts with a first-year value of more than $1 million, while SmartForce won five contracts
above that threshold for its latest fiscal quarter. SkillSoft scored a contract with a leading
telecommunications company valued at more than $3 million. NETg secured a contract with
Nestle worth $2.3 million, VCampus won a contract with the federal government valued at $4
million, and THINQ inked a contract to provide its e-learning portal to Eastman Kodak's 80,000
employees. These large outlays contribute to the perception that e-learning is more "downturnproof" than other sectors of the Internet economy.
There is also evidence that the venture capital drought for private e-learning providers is
beginning to ease. Industry-wide investments by U.S. VC firms in the quarter totaled $14.5
billion, comparable to 1999 outlays, though only half the level achieved in the first quarter of
2000, according to VC research firm VentureWire Group. However, a string of announcements
beginning in March point toward renewed liquidity of private capital targeting e-learning.
Recent VC beneficiaries include THINQ ($20 million fourth round investment), Knowledge
Impact ($24 million mezzanine round), Plateau Systems ($18 million first round), Knowlagent
($11 million series B round), and Global Learning Systems ($10 million second round).
Still, it's clear that e-learning firms are taking no chances and are cutting costs to preserve
cash while the economic outlook remains murky. Despite record revenues, several public firms
have cut staff in recent months, fearful of missing financial analysts' estimates or time-toprofitability forecasts.
Purchasing trends
The figures above paint a picture of the e-learning market's relative strength in a difficult period
for Internet-related software firms. But the economic downturn has clearly had an impact on
purchasing behaviors. At a recent E-Learning Forum meeting, a monthly gathering of elearning developers and users hosted by the Learning on Demand program of SRI Consulting
Business Intelligence, financial analyst Trace A. Urdan of investment bank W.R. Hambrecht +
Co. and other analysts described some key shifts among e-learning buyers in today's market.
They include the following:
Demonstrating e-learning's cost-savings is becoming a higher priority. Tightening
corporate budgets have forced publicly traded vendors to return to an emphasis of cost
savings realized when e-learning replaces instructor-led training (particularly when it entails
employee travel). The cost-savings argument resonates strongly among buyers working within
this year's more rigid budgetary confines. Less emphasized in the current climate are more
long-range and less tangible "top-line" benefits, such as competitive advantage and recruiting
and retention.
Sales cycles are lengthening. More requests for proposal (RFPs) are being sought by
buyers, and vendors are increasingly asked to submit to comparison tests before winning
contracts. This can be attributed to increasing caution and sophistication on the part of buyers
as they attempt to sort out various vendor claims and scrutinize technologies.
Price is becoming a bigger factor for e-learning buyers. Urdan's research, as well as our
own conversations with decision makers behind recent contract awards, reveals growing
emphasis on price as a factor in contract awards. One Fortune 150 firm SRI spoke with said
budgetary constraints made price one of three key factors together with content breadth and
quality of service in its selection process. Hambrecht's Urdan affirmed the growing price
competition, citing Microsoft's recent switch in vendors from Click2learn to SmartForce for its
value-added reseller e-learning program as an example of a pricing-based decision.
Uncertainty favors market leaders. As is often the case in young, fragmented industries
facing tough economic conditions, buyer concern over long-term prospects of various vendors
is benefiting perceived market leaders. The demise of two prominent e-learning companies,
Headlight and Pensare, along with several smaller providers in recent months has
exacerbated those concerns among buyers.
Buyers are concerned about standards and content quality. Concerns about
obsolescence and vendor solvency is driving interest in interoperability standards for elearning content. Content vendors report growing queries on whether their content complies
with e-learning standards published by AICC, as well as interoperability specifications under
development by a consortium led by the U.S. government. Buyers are also becoming more
aware of content quality and its impact on the success of e-learning initiatives. Content
providers that satisfy interoperability requirements while offering more advanced, interactive
content stand to benefit from those concerns.
Buyers are interested in integrated, end-to-end solutions. Iincreasingly evident among
buyers is awareness of the difficulties in integrating separate, stand-alone e-learning
components into a well-functioning system and the desire for a combination of management
capabilities, content, and authoring tools. It's unclear, however, whether this trend favors endto-end providers, such as IBM Mindspan Solutions, or combinations of products integrated by
LMS vendors or third-party consultants.
This issue was debated at the E-Learning Forum meeting, where consultants from two global
consulting firms argued the advantages of the "best-of-breed" model in terms of the ability to
tailor a solution for organizations. Others noted the costs incurred in pursuing such integration,
the headaches involved with multiple vendors, and the uncertainty that such integration efforts
will succeed.
This is the subject of debate in the broader e-business arena; Oracle recently announced a
packaged e-business applications suite that CEO Larry Ellison said would negate the need for
custom integration for its enterprise offering, which critics say dramatically increases costs of
enterprise software rollouts. Hosted solutions, which can provide integration of technologies
from multiple vendors, is another promising avenue for buyers looking to sidestep the
integration conundrum.
Technology shifts
Technology innovations continue to reshape the e-learning landscape. Chief among them is
the emergence of a new category of e-learning technology, dubbed Learning Content
Management Systems (LCMS). Such systems allow creation of content in the form of
learning objects (LOs), conversion of existing content from a variety of formats into LOs, and
use of database repository to manage and serve LOs based on learner needs. By shifting from
linear courses toward modular content, LCMS allow learning to be tailored for individuals
based on needs assessment and skill profiles and reused in various combinations for different
audiences, such as technical staff, sales staff, and executive staff.
The LCMS moniker has been adopted by a group of six companies, the LCMS Vendor
Council, to distinguish their products from broader Learning Management Systems (LMS) that
have dominated buyer interest over the past year. The group, which includes WBT Systems,
Avaltus, LeadingWay, and others, commissioned a white paper from IDC that provides an
overview of the technology (the paper is available on the Websites of Vendor Council
members). Some LCMSs, such as that of WBT Systems, have LMS features such as learner
registration, course delivery, course tracking, and reporting functions, and can function as a
stand-alone LMS. Their strength, however, is in providing a framework for authoring and
managing content in LO formats. LCMS capabilities will likely be added to LMS platforms
through integration--as is the case with WBT's LCMS, which has been integrated with Saba--or
by acquisition. One leading LCMS developer, MindLever, was recently acquired by Centra
Software.
A key driver of LO technology is the U.S. government, which is marshalling support for elearning technology interoperability standards through its Advanced Distributed Learning
initiative. ADL's Sharable Content Object Reference Model (SCORM) specification establishes
a methodology by which content can operate over various SCORM-compliant LMS systems. In
the past year, ADL has captured broad industry backing critical to the success of its effort,
mostly due to the substantial e-learning market the federal government represents.
ADL, together with five developers of e-learning technology and the standards body IEEE,
recently launched a task force to further drive innovation based on interoperability and learning
object methodologies. The Customized Learning Experience Online (CLEO) Lab, established
in April, will be a test-bed for furthering development of e-learning standards and emerging
technologies in the areas of performance support, simulation, and intelligent tutoring. Cisco
Systems, Click2Learn, IBM Mindspan Solutions, Microsoft, and NETg will lend their systems
and expertise to the effort.
The use of synchronous or "virtual classroom" tools as a means of creating learning content is
another growing trend, one that answers the need of organizations to create content quickly
and inexpensively. More recently, synchronous tools have been integrated with LCMSs to
allow synchronous sessions to be "chunked" into LOs and managed accordingly. The appeal
of the technology combination explains the recent purchase of MindLever by Centra, which
subsequently unveiled a combined platform.
There is also growing interest in harnessing collaborative technologies, particularly those in the
emerging realm of peer-to-peer (P2P) networking, to bolster e-learning. As discussed in a
recent LoD report, collaborative tools are seen as a way of improving the learner experience
by fostering a shared learning experience and peer learning opportunities. More recently, P2P
technologies have been envisioned as a means for content developers to share learning
resources and collaborate on content development. If efforts to create e-learning standards
succeed, it is conceivable that learning objects could be "traded" over Napster-style P2P
systems, an idea promoted by one prominent industry observer. However alluring for in-house
content developers, there's no obvious business model for such an approach and many
potential obstacles.
Development of LO methodologies, LCMS s, and collaborative technologies pushes e-learning
closer to the realm of knowledge management, and a convergence of the two disciplines
around object technologies is in its formative stages. The e-learning market stands to gain
from the perceived alignment of the two fields due to the higher profile that knowledge
management enjoys among "c-level" officers, such as chief executive, chief financial, chief
technology officers. Less clear is how quickly demand for combined e-learning and knowledge
management offerings will grow, how such a merger will impact the competitive landscape,
and what role content providers will play in that arena.
Each of these developments, together with growing sophistication of content and content
authoring capabilities and expanding Internet bandwidth, provides fresh opportunities to
leverage e-learning.
Implications for adopters
These are stressful times not only for e-learning providers navigating the economic downturn
but also for adopters of e-learning, who are understandably concerned about the financial
viability of their vendors. As evidenced in Web discussion boards that center on e-learning, the
recent economic slowdown has increased interest in issues such as return on investment,
interoperability efforts, and the financial health of various vendors.
Adopters of e-learning can limit the headaches they may face in the event a vendor is
swallowed by a larger firm or disappears from the landscape by verifying vendor compliance
with existing interoperability standards from AICC and draft standards and specifications from
IMS Global Learning Consortium and ADL Initiative. Though they're still in early stages,
compliance with these standards and specifications will reduce the effort needed to adapt
custom content to different systems.
Buyers of e-learning products and services should ask providers for evidence of their financial
health in addition to testimonials from existing customers. Suppliers and buyers should discuss
arrangements available to maintain support of a company's e-learning implementation in the
event of a merger, acquisition or bankruptcy.
Perhaps most important for e-learning buyers is to make sure they have clear ownership of
custom content, learner records, and other material developed in conjunction with third-party
e-learning developers. In cases where such material resides on a vendor's server, such as in
hosted offerings, buyers should discuss transfer of such material in the event of a bankruptcy-ideally prior to selecting a vendor.
The e-learning field faces more growing pains as it matures from "high-concept" to "businessas-usual," and a cottage industry of contenders inevitably winnows. But the industry's
resilience in the face of the recent economic downturn, based on its ability to demonstrate
value for adopters, bodes well for its long-term prospects.
Published: July 2001