Draft – Strictly Not for Quotation 19th ANNUAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP Between Resilience and Vulnerability: Understanding Africa’s Informal Economy in the Positive By Kate Meagher Draft Working Paper S1J Presented at REPOA’s 19th Annual Research Workshop held at the Ledger Plaza Bahari Beach Hotel, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; April 09-10, 2013 This preliminary material / interim, or draft research report is being disseminated to encourage discussion and critical comment amongst the participants of REPOA’s Annual Research Workshop. It is not for general distribution. This paper has not undergone REPOA’s formal review and editing process. Any views expressed are of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of REPOA or any other organisation. 1 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 WHY SIZE MATTERS .................................................................................................. 2 WHY HISTORY MATTERS ............................................................................................ 4 PUSH AND PULL FACTORS OF CONTEMPORARY INFORMALITY ....................................... 5 COMPOSITION AND INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE IN THE 21ST CENTURY ........................... 8 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORMAL SECTOR AND THE STATE ........................................... 11 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 12 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................... 14 i Between Resilience and Vulnerability: Understanding Africa’s Informal Economy in the Positive - Kate Meagher, London School of Economics INTRODUCTION In their 2002 report, Decent Work and the Informal Economy, the ILO declared that the informal economy is here to stay. Contradicting the basic assumptions of development theory, the informal economy has flourished rather than declined with the process of economic development. The ILO report argues that, ‘Contrary to earlier predictions, the informal economy has been growing rapidly in almost every corner of the globe, including industrialized countries – it can no longer be considered a temporary or residual phenomenon’ (ILO 2002:1). Along with the recognition of the growing importance of the informal economy in contemporary processes of economic development, has come a stark awareness of its size, particularly in developing countries. Sub-saharan Africa currently stands out as the most informalized region of the world, with an informal economy that accounts for nearly 80% of the non-agricultural labour force, and for nearly half of its GNP. But what does this high level of informality mean for the operation and development of African economies? Is it a sign of too much regulation or too little formal sector growth? Does it enhance or undermine formal sector activity and state capacity? Does Africa’s large informal economy offer a source of resilience in the face of global economic pressures, or is it a reflection of the continent’s vulnerability to the ravages of global forces? Equally importantly, is Africa’s huge informal economy creating new sources of vulnerability within the globalizing economic system, generating unregulated flows of goods and resources under the radar of the global trade and security systems? Answering these questions demands a gestalt shift in the way we look at the informal economy in Africa. The prevailing tendency, particularly among economists, is to explore the informal economy as a reaction to conditions in the formal economy. As the very term ‘informal economy’ indicates, economic informality tends to be analysed in terms of what it is not, rather than in terms of what it is (Elyachar 2005; Hart 2006; Meagher 2010a). Particularly in the case of Africa, where the informal economy is larger than the formal economy in many countries, understanding how the informal economy operates and its implications for economic development requires a focus on the internal organization of the informal economy. At 80% of the labour force working outside of agriculture, it strains the bounds of probability that African informal economies represent atomized actors that simply react to conditions in the formal economy. Analysing the implications of Africa’s large informal economy for governance and development demands an awareness of the informal institutional 1 landscape and the processes of restructuring operating within the informal economic realm as it draws on indigenous institutions and develops systems of its own to fill gaps in markets and state provision for a growing share of the population. This is not to suggest that the informal economy should be treated as a separate economic sphere, in the manner of conventional dualist analyses. On the contrary, investigating the informal economy in terms of its internal organizational realities offers new avenues for exploring the intertwining of the formal and informal economies without losing sight of the distinctive regulatory and developmental implications of high levels of informality. It also offers a means of recognizing how African informal economies differ from those in other regions with regard to factors other than size and composition. In short, investigating Africa’s informal economy in terms of what it is offers the prospect of more effective policy making, geared to the distinctive needs and realities of the African context. In the face of growing worries about the explosive potential of Africa’s large and growing informal economy, understanding the informal economy in the positive holds out the best hope of positive policy outcomes. In this short paper, I will outline the key features for an analysis of Africa’s informal economy in the positive. I will begin with a brief focus on the implications of its size relative to other regions, and move on to an analysis of its history, focusing on how differences in pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial history have shaped distinctive trends in informal economic development in various parts of Africa. This will set the scene for a consideration of the push and pull factors influencing the expansion of contemporary African informal economies. Subsequent sections will focus on the current composition of the informal economy in Africa, and the informal as well as formal institutional processes that shape contemporary informal activity. Throughout, distinctions will be made between different informal trajectories in various parts of Africa, justifying the use of the term ‘informal economies’ when talking about African informality beyond the level of statistical aggregates. Finally, I will focus on the implications of African informality for the formal sector and the state. This sections will focus on the prospects of informality for development, but also on the serious tensions of poverty and neglect that risk tipping these dynamic informal economies from a trajectory of resilience into one of local as well as global vulnerability. Why Size Matters Widespread recognition that the informal economy is expanding rather than declining across the developing world has drawn growing attention to measuring its size. Owing to myriad measurement problems and divergences in definitions and methodologies, efforts to measure the size of national informal economies and to 2 derive regional averages should be treated as orders of magnitude rather than as hard numbers (Harding & Jenkins 1989; Schneider 2002). Despite their limitations, the value of these measurement efforts is that they highlight the contemporary significance of informality, and have played a key role in putting the informal economy back on the development agenda after over a decade of relative neglect. In the case of Sub-saharan Africa, recent efforts to measure and compare the size of informal economies has had a particularly dramatic effect on development policy debates. As Table 1 shows, recent statistical measures from the ILO and by the World Bank reveal that across the developing world, the informal economy now accounts for over half of the labour force working outside of agriculture, and for over one third of GNP. In Africa, these figures rise to over three-quarters of the non-agricultural labour force, and more than half of GNP. In short, the informal economy is now larger than the formal economy in labour as well as financial terms, putting statistical emphasis behind assertions that in Africa, the informal economy now constitutes the ‘real economy’ (Hansen & Vaa 2004; MacGaffey 1991). Table 1. The Size of Informal Economies in Various Regions % of Non-Agricultural Region % of GNP Employment Africa 72 42 Asia 65 26 Latin America 51 41 OECD -17 Source: Schneider 2002; ILO 2002. Recognizing the huge size of Africa’s informal economy is important for more than just dramatic effect. It draws attention to the importance of the internal dynamics of informal economic organization. An informal economy that caters for such a vast share of African populations must develop networks and institutionalized patterns of organization to prevent society from grinding to a halt. However chaotic African informal organization may seems, these huge informal economies could not operate at all without some form of internal organization. In addition, the fact that African informal economies are so large relative to the formal economy raises questions about where the real regulatory power lies on the continent. When the informal economies becomes larger than the formal economy, does it become the dominant regulatory force in the economy? Does the size of the informal economy alter the relationship between the informal economy and the state? Does it make informal regulation the norm, and formality the aberration? If ‘informal is normal’ in Africa, what exactly does this mean in terms of the authority of the state to dictate the terms of new forms of engagement between the informal and formal economies? Answering these questions requires a consideration of the historical factors that have 3 shaped the emergence of the informal economy in Africa, and the regulatory interface between the informal economy and the state. Why History Matters Understanding African informality in the positive requires an awareness of how the size and organization of informal economies on the continent have been shaped by historical factors. A closer look at African informal economies reveals important differences between different parts of the continent with regard to the size, composition and complexity of the informal economy. These differences have been shaped not only by contemporary variations in the regulatory context, but by distinctive historical experienced during the pre-colonial, colonial and postindependence periods. The interplay of these differentiating forces go a long way to explaining divergences in levels of informality across African countries. A key influence emanating from the pre-colonial period relates to the presence of centralized states or large-scale religious systems, both of this served as frameworks for the organization of long-distance trading networks and indigenous commercial institutions capable of operating across communal and ethnic boundaries (Austen 1987; Hopkins 1973; Northrup 1978). Economic historians of Africa have detailed the existence of well-developed centralized states in West Africa, including the Asante and Hausa states, and to a more limited extent in East Africa, in the centuries before colonialism. These states provided both the resources and institutional support for the development of markets, commercial institutions and long distance trading networks. Large-scale religious systems, including Islam and a range of indigenous oracular religious also played a central role in the development of indigenous economic networks and large-scale commercial institutions in precolonial West as well as East Africa. In stateless societies such as the Igbo of West Africa, and the Somali of East Africa, oracular religions were key to the emergence of regional trading systems in the former, while Islam underpinned the development of long-distance trading networks in the latter (Dike & Ekejiuba 1990; Harneit-Sievers 2006; Little 2003). Colonialism generated a new set of influences on the development of informal economic organization, which reinforced the greater scale and complexity of informal economic networks in West Africa, while suppressing such development in much of Central, East and Southern Africa. In a forthcoming paper on tax efforts in Africa, the economist Thandika Mkandawire (2010) points out that cash crop economies,1 concentrated largely in West Africa, tended to be more permissive of indigenous economic activity, while the labour reserve economies of Southern Africa and parts 1 Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda 4 of East Africa, and to a lesser extent, the concession economies of Central Africa, took extensive measures to suppress indigenous economic activity that might compete with wage labour. In colonial labour reserve economies in particular,2 Mkandawire explains,‘measures were taken to block alternative sources of income that might compete with the wage economy. These measures included disruption of peasant agriculture, job discrimination, criminalization of informal activities by Africans in the urban areas, political regimentation of Africans, migration control, etc.’. Concession economies,3 in such places as the Belgian Congo, and Gabon, relied on more brutal methods such as forced labour and plunder until late in the colonial period, the institutional traces of which are still visible in the pronounced violence of informal economic organization in these areas. In the post-colonial period, regulatory attitudes set during the colonial period tended to persist, although subsequent events, such as long civil wars in Mozambique and Angola, or particularly severe economic collapse in Zambia and more recently in Zimbabwe, have sometimes shifted former labour reserve economies toward higher levels of informal activity than were characteristic of other economies with similar histories. Overall, the combination of historical influences have led to marked regional patterns in the levels of informal economic activity across Africa. Drawing on ILO figures largely from the 1990s for informal activity as a share of the nonagricultural labour forces, Mkandawire shows that levels of informal activity average 58% in West Africa, 49% in Central Africa, and only 19% in Southern Africa. Despite the expansion of informality across the continent, more recent figures bear out a higher level of informality in West Africa than in East and Southern Africa. With appropriate caveats about the precision of these figures, and the large number of countries for data on levels of informality is not available, recent measures of informality as a share of the non-agricultural labour force average over 65% in former cash crop economies concentrated in West Africa, and fall to 35% in the former labour reserve economies concentrated in Southern and East Africa (Charmes 2009; Heintz & Valodia 2008). Push and Pull Factors of Contemporary Informality The contemporary era of globalization and economic reform have exerted more uniform influences among African countries, precipitating rising levels of informality across the continent. While historical differences in patterns of informality persist, contemporary push and pull factors shaping the expansion of informality have become more similar across countries and sub-regions. Henrik Huitfeldt and Jutting 2 Labour reserve economies included Angola, Kenya, South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Mozambique. 3 The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, Central African Republic, Rwanda, Burundi 5 (2009:100) identify four key drivers behind the contemporary expansion of informality. These are: slow employment growth in the formal economy, the restructuring of labour markets under liberalization and globalization, inappropriate formal sector regulations, and competitive pressures to reduce costs. In the African context, the first and second drivers could be collapsed into one, since it is the restructuring of labour markets under liberalization and globalization that are the main force behind inadequate levels of formal employment. The third driver, inappropriate regulation, has been shown to be relatively unimportant to the expansion of informality, in Africa and across much of the developing world. The excessive regulation argument has been weakened by the fact that greater deregulation of African economies over the past two decades has been accompanied by the expansion of informality. This paradox was observed by Maloney (2004:1159), who argued that the key push factor was related to unwanted social benefits rather than rigidities in enterprise and labour regulations. The fourth driver, cost-cutting in response to competition, is also relevant, although liberalization and globalization are driving the bulk of the competitive pressures (Henrik Huitfeldt and Jutting 2000). The resulting picture of push and pull factors militates against the notion of informal sector expansion as a ‘voluntary’ rejection of formal sector conditions. The image of voluntarism and choice presented by Maloney and others is not borne out by evidence from African countries (Maloney 2004; Perry et al. 2007). In particular, the widespread phenomenon of ‘straddling’ – which refers to holding a formal sector job and carrying out one or more informal activities on the side – tends to undermine the notion of a preference for evading costly social benefits (Vandemoortele 1991; Mustapha 1992). Similarly, the idea that the desire to evade taxes pushes people into the informal economy is weakened by the fact that most informal actors pay a range of formal as well as informal taxes. Local government taxes are often collected through officials in the markets where informal actors operate or by sending revenue officers physically entrepreneur to entrepreneur, making evasion difficult. In some countries, decentralization has also led to the delegation of collection of higher levels of taxes to local government authorities. Moreover, many informal actors pay a range of informal taxes, such as association fees, security levies to vigilante groups, and extra-legal levies for other forms of service provision (road repair, access to electricity, etc.) (Boone 1994; Meagher 2010a; Tokman 1992). In the African context, the major push factors have more to do with compulsion than with voluntary exit, triggered by the restructuring of labour markets by liberalization and globalization. Key among these push factors is the lack of formal sector employment, induced by global competition and the active downsizing of formal employment in the context of drastic economic restructuring. Across Africa, this has 6 involved massive public and private sector retrenchment, as well as the deindustrialization and enterprise collapse in the context of liberalization, devaluation and high inflation (Vandemoortele 1991; Mkandawire 2001). The resulting escalation of unemployment has led to a mass influx into informal activities, necessitated by the lack of any form of unemployment insurance across most of Africa (Heintz & Valodia 2008). A further restructuring-induced push factor involves the collapse of real wages even among those who remained in formal employment. This has resulted in the intensification of ‘multiple modes of livelihood’. On the one hand, multiple modes involves hanging onto formal jobs where possible while starting up an activity in the informal sector, such as informal taxi driving, trading, or selling their services after hours. On the other, it includes the entry of previously non-employed household members, such as wives and dependents, into the informal labour market to make ends meet. (Bangura 1994; Meagher & Yunusa 1996). The pressures of economic restructuring have created two further push factors, including the weakening of markets in the formal sector, and consequent pressures to cut costs. Owing in part to weak export shares, markets for formal sector firms across Africa, have contracted owing to the collapse in wages and employment, and the intensification of import competition (Meagher 1995; Mkandawire 2001). The weakened purchasing power of structurally adjusted consumers and mounting import competition has put many formal sector firms out of business, or forced them to cut costs by resorting to informal labour or going underground themselves. Finally, the instability and unpredictability of formal institutions in the context of economic reforms has operated as a push factor. In the face of incessant reforms in the formal economy over a period of two decades, many African economic agents have withdrawn into the informal economy where institutions are less subject to drastic and unanticipated changes. Banking sector reforms and attendant bank failures in Nigeria have frightened many successful informal operators out of the formal banking sector, and rapid changes in regulations and tax regimes over the past two decades have either forced or frightened formal operators into the informal sector (Meagher 2003). Commenting on the impact of economic reforms on African business development, Poul Ove Pedersen and Dorothy McCormick (1999:130) explain that ‘The continuous changes in rules and regulations and their inconsistent enforcement create an instability in the economic system which is not supportive of long-term investment’. While the informal economy has increased risk and instability for African consumers owing to the lack of legal protection and quality control, it currently represents a sphere of greater predictability for many African in formal actors. 7 Just as the push factors are more about compulsion than choice, the pull factors of African informal employment are more about default options than attractions. The fabled ‘ease of entry’ of the informal sector is certainly a pull factor in that sense, since ease of entry only applies to the low-cost, low-income segments of the informal economy. More lucrative activities tend to have higher capital and skill requirements, and also involve more extensive informal arrangements that limit entry, such as associations or access to credit networks (Sethuraman 1998). This is evident in the fact that the women and the poor tend to be concentrated in already saturated activities at the low-income end of the informal economy, rather than moving into activities with higher income potential. A further pull factor involves the creation of new opportunities by the crisis in the formal sector. Both the limited expansion in industrial subcontracting, and the shift of middle-class demand down to the informal economy as imports and formal sector goods and services become unaffordable, have created a more skilled and lucrative niche within the informal economy. In addition, the collapse of public services has opened up informal opportunities for informal service providers, including tutors, water sellers, vigilante and private security services, etc. However, these are transient opportunities created by economic crisis, which will disappear with economic growth. The expansion of informal jobs via Global Commodity Chains (GCCs) remains very limited in Africa, given that Africa’s share of global FDI flows stands at barely 2%. A final pull factor involves greater access to business support services and economic institutions in the informal economy. The social embeddedness of informal economic institutions makes them more predictable and accessible to African business actors, particularly those that lack the levels of literacy and the contacts to access formal skill training and business services. This does not, however, mean that the quality of informal services is better, only that it is more accessible. Levels of credit available through informal mechanisms are often too low for significant enterprise investment, particularly in the case of rotating credit groups, and the technical quality of training has become inadequate even for the needs of informal actors (Adam 1999). In the larger informal business networks, access is limited by ethnic and religious membership, age and usually by gender. Composition and Institutional Structure in the 21st Century The composition and institutional organization of African informal economies reflects the historical and contemporary factors outlined above. Current statistical data indicates that African informal economies have the highest level of informal selfemployment, accounting for 70% of informal employment (Table 2). Conversely, levels of informal wage labour are comparatively low. While informal wage labour 8 accounts for over 40% of informal employment in other regions, it constitutes less than 30% of informal employment in Africa. These statistics mask significant variation between West and Southern Africa. In West Africa, where informal entrepreneurship and large-scale trading networks have had more room to develop, informal wage labour tends to be below 20%, while in Southern Africa and Kenya, levels of informal wage employment average over 50% (Charmes 2009: 36). Table 2 also reveals that women account for 52% of informal employment, a much higher share than in other regions. This indicates that women are over-represented in the informal economy, and research shows that this is associated with female poverty rather than with increased income opportunities (Charmes 2009; Meagher 2010; Heintz and Valodia 2008). Statistics also show that Africa has the highest share of child labour in the world, with an incidence as high as 41% of children between 5 and 14 years of age (Harsch 2001; Xaba et al. 2002). Child labour is particularly pronounced in West and Central Africa, where apprenticeship institutions are stronger, informal employment of children in mines is widespread, and domestic labour often involves younger girls than is common in Southern and East Africa. Table 2. Composition of Informal Employment in Developing Countries % of children % Self% wage % of Region engaged in child employment labour women labour Sub-Saharan 70.9 29.1 52.3 41 Africa Latin America 57.5 42.6 46.5 17 Asia 53.4 46.6 28.6 21 Source: Charmes 2009:36; Harsch 2001 Understanding the contemporary dynamics of informal employment in Africa requires moving beyond the statistics to an understanding of the institutional organization of informal employment. The institutional factors fall into three broad categories: institutions governing informal self-employment, those governing informal wage employment, and new forms of informal employment arising from globalization. With regard to informal self-employment, the key factor to note is that informal enterprises do not constitute a mass of atomized operators. They are embedded in informal social and business networks through which they organize training, credit and business activities. These include ethnic and religious networks, rotating credit societies, informal trade associations, and friendship or ‘old-boy’ school networks. These are more highly developed in West Africa than in other parts of the continent, but are emerging and strengthening in other parts of Africa as informal selfemployment expands. Informal service provision in the face of collapsing public services represents a growing area of informal self-employment. This informalization of public services constitutes a kind of ‘poor man’s privatization’. While there is comparatively little productive subcontracting between the formal and informal sectors in Africa (except for South Africa), there is a low but growing incidence of 9 distributive subcontracting to street traders, and outsourcing of ancilliary services (canteen services, uniforms, repairs) to informal enterprises (Meagher 1995; Meagher and Yunusa 1996; Meagher 2010; Rogerson 1999). With regard to informal wage employment, the key institutional arrangements include employment in informal firms (apprenticeship, journeymen, informal temporary or permanent employees). Informal employment in informal firms appears to be most prevalent in West Africa, where informal firms are more able to grow large enough to employ significant amounts of labour, and where institutions of informal labour are more highly developed. Informal employment in formal sector firms is more common in Central, East and Southern Africa, particularly involving the use of homeworkers in the South African garment industry, and in mining firms in Central and East Africa. Domestic labour also represents an important source of informal wage employment across the continent. Finally, new forms of informal employment arising from globalization include the transnationalization of informal livelihoods, and informal employment in global commodity chains. The transnationalization of informal livelihoods refers to the internationalization of informal economic networks. The cross-border trading networks of the 1970s have been increasingly globalized. Ethnic and religious trading networks of West, East (especially Somali) and even Central Africa have penetrated deep into Europe, North America, and Asia since the 1990s (Babou 2002; MacGaffey & Bazenguissa-Ganga 2000; Meagher 2003). The activities involved are largely restricted to legal goods and services, linking structurally adjusted African consumers into global markets, and linking informal enterprise clusters into parallel commodity chains that operate under the radar of the global trading system (Meagher 2007). There has also been an emergence of new drug trading and human trafficking networks as pressures for viable livelihoods intensify amid extremely narrow global opportunities, especially for African women (Meagher 2010). Global commodity chains have been a much more limited source of new informal employment over all, owing to low levels of FDI, though they have played a more significant role in Southern Africa, Central Africa and Kenya. Key sources of informal wage employment from GCCs include the garment industry in Southern Africa and Kenya (often involving Asian investment); new agricultural exports in South Africa, Zambia and Kenya, which involves some informal non-agricultural labour for packing and labelling; and informal mining labour in Central and Southern Africa (Human Rights Watch 2005; Barrientos 2000; Hart 2002; Charmes 2009). Unlike the situation in Asia and Latin America, where GCCs bring more skilled and better remunerated informal jobs in data entry, electronics manufacturing and other forms of manufacturing, Africa’s GCCs involve low skill, low-income activities in garment 10 production and primary commodity export, and draw on the most vulnerable forms of labour, primarily women, children and migrants. Implications for the Formal Sector and the State Compared to other regions, informal employment in Africa is dominated by low skilled, low income activities with very limited connections to formal sector firms. This would tend to suggest that African informal employment offers little to the formal economy except unfair competition and a drag on productivity. While these problems do exist, the increasing intertwining between the formal and informal economies even in Africa suggests that the informal economy offers some benefits to the formal economy as well. These benefits appear to relate largely to a search for cheap and flexible labour. The increase in distributive subcontracting and outsourcing between formal and informal firms is driven almost entirely by a costcutting logic. From this perspective, informality acts as a boost to formal sector productivity rather than a drag. The existence of dynamic informal manufacturing clusters producing crafts, garments, shoes, cosmetics and even computers, particularly in West but also in East and Southern Africa, is an indication of significant potential for productive interaction with the formal sector, although productivity in these clusters is often below the standard for global export (McCormick 1999; Oyelaran-Oyeyinka & McCormick 2007; Meagher 2010b). In these cases, it is not informality that is a drag on productivity, but poor infrastructure, lack of technical upgrading, and inadequate access to credit, quality inputs and marketing services. This situation calls for public or private sector investment in upgrading of informal sector capacity, and a reconsideration of the decline in investment in public services that has contributed to the decline in skills and productive capacity. Jutting and Laiglesia (2009) and others argue that expanding informality represents a ‘broken social contract’ between society and the state, but more questions need to be asked about how the social contract was broken, and what kind of measures are appropriate to reintegrating society and the state in the political and economic conditions of contemporary Africa. Two different forms of state-informal sector relations are evident in Africa, which have important implications for the future of the social contract. The first can be characterized as ‘instrumental’, involving a mutual evasion of responsibilities, as the state attempts to shift the costs of reforms onto the informal economy and informal actors attempt to use public goods without paying taxes. This form has become dominant in most African countries. While contemporary literature is very clear about the negative effect of this instrumental relationship on state fiscal and regulatory capacity, there is less attention to its negative effect on the organizational and absorptive capacity of the informal economy. Declining incomes, social fragmentation and conflict are all indications of 11 the unravelling of informal economic institutions under the strain of their instrumentalization by African states and international policy advisers, who have left the informal economy essentially to fill the yawning gaps in employment and public provision left by downsizing states (Amselle 2002; Grey-Johnson 1992; Meagher 2010a). Moving down this path is leading to the destruction of the legendary resilience of African informal economies, increasing the vulnerability of societies to conflict, criminality and social collapse. A second form of state-informal sector engagement can be characterized as ‘synergistic’. This involves the informal sector filling gaps in employment, social welfare and service provision in return for state investment in improving popular welfare and informal productive capacity. Properly synergistic relationships between the informal economy and the state can be found in many parts of East Asia – where informal sector productivity is supported by significant state investment in infrastructure and social services – but are rare in Africa (Hart 2002). However, there are a number of African countries in which the informal economy contributes to social integration and public investment in ways that have stabilized societies that would otherwise have disintegrated in the face of extreme economic pressure. Important examples include Senegal, a highly informalized but relatively stable democracy, and Somaliland, where the informal economy has contributed to reconstituting a state where even international efforts have failed (Bradbury 2008; Villalon 1995). These two examples offer potential African models for rebuilding the social contract, however tentatively, that differ in important ways from the current models being developed by international institutions (Jutting & de Laiglesia 2009; Perry et al. 2007). These locally adapted strategies of social integration of informal actors and maintaining or re-establishing state legitimacy merit further research. Conclusion Addressing the expansion of informality in Sub-Saharan Africa requires attention to the specific nature of African informality. This includes a more highly informalized labour force than any other region, a predominance of self-employment over informal wage labour, extremely limited generation of new economic opportunities through globalization, and the highest incidence among all regions of especially vulnerable sources of labour, including women, child labour and migrants. A situation of very low wages, few global opportunities, extremely vulnerable labour, and growing problems of conflict and criminality suggests an informal economy that is strained to the limit. African informal economies are reaching the tipping point from resilience into a source of vulnerability and volatility unless urgent efforts are made to raise productivity and opportunities through investment in infrastructure and public services. 12 Attention to locally appropriate models for rebuilding the social contract is vital to any measure to reduce informality. Current suggestions for rebuilding state-society relations through taxation and social protection is a model more appropriate to societies with a high share of informal wage labour (Perry et al. 2007). In Africa, where the bulk of the informal economy involves self-employment rather than informal wage labour, an offer of pensions and unemployment benefits will do little to improve productivity or state legitimacy. Where high levels of informal selfemployment coincide with weak state capacity, as in West Africa, the organizational demands of paying these benefits are daunting. Moreover, the needs of the informal self-employed involve investment in infrastructure and business services which would improve their productive and income generating capacity, not social protection, which addresses instability of employment rather than productivity. Understanding the realities of African informal economies in the positive is vital to coming up with viable solutions to mounting poverty and informality. 13 REFERENCES Adam, S., (1999). Competences and other factors affecting the small enterprise sector in Ibadan, Nigeria, in Enterprises in Africa. Between Poverty and Growth, eds. K. King & S. McGrath London: Intermediate Technology Publications, 179-90. Amselle, J.-L., 2002. Globalization and the Future of Anthropology. African Affairs, 101, 213-29. Austen, R. A., 1987. 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