Al Majmoua, The Lebanese Association For development POVERTY MAP Morwenn Cornec April 2004 Micro credit is perceived as part of the solution for poverty. As a micro credit institution Al Majmoua needs to develop a precise understanding of poverty in Lebanon in order to better target its product distribution and development. The Lebanese experience in the last three decades demonstrates the existence of a direct and close link between economic growth on the one hand and improvement in the standard of living and alleviation of poverty on the other hand. Nevertheless growth by itself is not sufficient to alleviate poverty. A number of studies were carried out during the first half of the 1990s, which attempted to diagnose the evolution of living conditions in Lebanon and income distribution, and estimation of the magnitude of the poverty phenomenon. It reveals that poverty increased considerably since 1975 because of the civil war. The first output of these studies appeared in the Lebanese national report presented during the Social Summit in Copenhagen (1995). Later issues concerned working papers and studies published by the ESCWA1 and the United Nations Development Program and as field inquiries covering samples of Lebanese households. The Social Affairs Ministry along with the UN Development Program issued a preliminary Living Conditions Map in 1998. Currently the Ministry and the Central Statistics Department are conducting a living conditions field study2. In 1998, the Central Administration for Statistics published a study on Household Living Conditions in Lebanon. This study is considered at present to be the most reliable source of data on household incomes and expenditures. There are no precise recent studies on poverty in Lebanon because of the lack of accessible micro-data necessary for achieving the qualitative jump needed in assessing its nature and extent. Therefore this study aims at consolidating data from different sources to build a recent poverty map3 of Lebanese regions. The first part gives an overview of several concepts of poverty. The second part presents the definition of poverty that we will adopt in this study as well as the observable indicators that will be used to measure it. 1 Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. A new social map is due in the fall of 2004 and a poverty report, with a recalibrated poverty line, is projected for the second half of 2005. 3 Poverty maps are spatial representations of poverty assessments. 2 POVERTY CONCEPT The right to survival with access to food is a very important notion and a universal concept (poverty is defined as "the lack of basic necessities"). Attempts were made to estimate the poverty line4 (which various institutions and individuals define differently) based on previous computations that adopt the methodology of measuring the least cost calorie consumption and meal. Using this approach, the lower poverty line (abject poverty) includes expenditures on food only. It is not enough to fix a poverty line, but it is important to understand the country’s situation of poverty. We can therefore define 3 indicators which reflect better the situation of the country’s poverty. The Gini coefficient is a measure of the income inequality in a society. It is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 means perfect equality (everyone has the same income) and 1 means perfect inequality (one person has all the income, everyone else earns nothing). Although the Gini coefficient is mostly used to measure income inequality, it can be used to measure wealth inequality as well. For Lebanon, in 1997, it was 0.435. Furthermore, the Poverty gap ratio (%) is the mean distance separating the population from the poverty line (with the non-poor being given a distance of zero), expressed as a percentage of the poverty line. It is defined as the average amount that income falls below the poverty level divided by the poverty level. It is a measure that tells about the depth of the poverty (World Bank). Therefore, the poverty gap gives the average interval between the poor and the poverty line. The poverty gap index (PGI) measures the depth of poverty in a country or region, based on the aggregate poverty deficit of the poor relative to the poverty line. It is inadequate in assessing the impact of specific policies on the poor. On the other hand, the Poverty Gap Index increases with the distance of the poor below the poverty line, and thus gives a good indication of the depth of poverty. A decline in the Poverty Gap Index reflects an improvement in the current situation. Thus, definitions are various according to the socio-economic framework of the individuals observed. The literature recalls mainly the relative and absolute poverty. There has been a long debate in economics about whether income or consumption poverty lines should be defined in absolute or relative terms. Absolute poverty Most international organizations define the poverty line in an absolute way (the upper poverty line) as the level of income necessary for people to buy the goods necessary to their survival5. For instance the “1 dollar a day” line - at 1985 purchasing power parity- has been extensively used ever since the 1990 World Development Report as the ‘extreme’ poverty line in studies of the extent of poverty, its socio-demographic profile and its evolution in the world and in specific countries. 4 5 It is defined as a line that divides the poor from the non-poor, or the poor from the extremely poor. “Absolute poverty, relative deprivation and social exclusion”, François Bourgignon There is no standard that defines absolute poverty: the level of income necessary for these minimum standards is often referred to as the poverty line (defined in a common currency and held constant for all countries and regions). Relative poverty Other analysts prefer defining the poverty line in relative terms as some proportion of the mean or the median income in the country under analysis. With such a definition some authors prefer then to refer to “relative deprivation” rather than poverty. However, no such semantic precaution is taken when the European Commission defines the European poor as all people whose consumption expenditures or income falls below 50 per cent of the mean in the country where they live. Absolute and relative poverty concepts are simply aimed at describing and analyzing different issues. Physical poverty is about mere survival, that is the capacity to buy food and all the goods necessary for the fulfillment of basic physical needs. Relative poverty, or social deprivation is about not being like others. Poverty can be seen as low levels of capability or “the failure of basic capabilities to reach certain minimum acceptable levels”6. The lack of capabilities to be free from hunger and to live with dignity is part of poverty. But the lack of incomes, assets, opportunities, and other instrumental categories cannot be treated at parity with lack of basic capabilities as dimensions of poverty. Two concepts have come to predominate: those of the World Bank and the UNDP: World Bank The World Bank has always defined poverty according to accessible resources that is to say according to monetary income. The poor are then those who fall short of a certain income threshold and/or a certain amount of expenditure for consumption. UNDP As for the UNDP, it views poverty as "being deprived of those opportunities and choices that are essential to human development: for a long, healthy, creative life; for a reasonable standard of living; for freedom, dignity, self-respect and respect from others" (life situation approach). What’s more, we can estimate the poverty thanks to two main indicators: - The Human Development Index (HDI) measures the average achievement in three basic dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living. - The Human Poverty Index (HPI) measures deprivations in the three basic dimensions captured in the human development index in addition to indicators of social exclusion. 6 A. Sen 1992, p.109. The statistics7 even if they were 1993 data gives an idea of the poverty in Lebanon. The lower poverty line, which includes expenditures for food only, was estimated to be around $306 a month in urban setting at the end of 1993 for a household consisting of five individuals - which is the average household size in Lebanon. The abject poverty was estimated at around $226 in a rural setting. According to the same study, the absolute poverty, for a household of five individuals, amounted to around $618 a month in the urban setting. In the rural setting, the upper poverty line was estimated at around at $377. 7 Studies issued by the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) and the United Nations Development Program. POVERTY TOOLS MEASURES Thus there are many approaches to the concept of poverty and not a single definition of who are the poor. In each survey a poverty concept is defined considering cultural, social and economic environment of the observed community. Therefore this study will measure poverty in Lebanon covering the following schemes: socio-economic characteristics, shelter, transport, health care, income patterns and household budget. The starting point is a list of items (car, phone…) and events (main source of potable water, all school age children attending school…) that people may or may not believe are basic necessities. The list should be seen as a menu of possibilities (according to the Administration Centrale de la Statistique). 1. Socio-economic characteristics Education and schooling o Illiteracy (considering age and gender differentials). (T 2.5) → illiterate is defined in this study, as the one who cannot read, or write. The illiterate rate is defined by the proportion of people without instruction who have more than 10 years, compared to total residents in the same category of age. o Distribution of the households according to the number of children who currently attend school per household according to the residence (in %). (T 2.4) → pupils and academics included. A household consists of one or more individuals, whether relatives or not, who live together and share the dwelling and food. Professional life o Unemployment rate (by gender, age and area). (T 2.9) → the number of unemployed includes those who search for work for the first time. 2. Shelter o Distribution of the households per degree of overpopulation in the housing according to the residence (in %). (T 3.12) → we can establish a measurement scale of the settlement density in 3 categories: critical overpopulation (more than 3 people in a room or more than 8 people in less than 4 rooms), the accentuated under-settlement (a person by room) and finally the normal settlement. o Relative frequency of households who have housing equipment according to the residence (in %). (T 3.20 and T 3.22) o Frequency of households who have housing problems per residence (in %). (T3.28) 3. Transport o Distribution of the households according to their car ownership following their class of monthly income and their residence (in %). (T 4.1) 4. Health care o Distribution of the households who have an untreated medical problem by cause and following the class of income. (T 6.16) 5. Income patterns o Average annual household income, average per capita income and residence. (T 7.9) o Distribution of the households according to their appreciation of the level of their income and to the level of their household monthly income (in %). (T 9.1) o Distribution of the households according to their financial situation and to their class of monthly income (in %). (T 9.5) 6. Household budget o Distribution of average annual expenditures per household, according to the residence and the kind of expenditures. (T 8.2) EVALUATION AND ANALYSIS OF POVERTY IN LEBANON The mapping of living conditions in Lebanon provides an objective basis to identify the needs and priorities at the national and community levels. Sample profile 25 20 15 10 5 0 Frequency of the residents per mohafazat (1997) 22.5 20.1 15.1 13.6 11.8 10 6.9 Be irut Su bur b Mo No So Na Be uth q r th ba un t ieh aa Leb Le s o t Leb ba an fB non on ei r anon ut A total of 61,580 household questionnaires were completed and covered 289,257 individuals constituting around 10 % of the resident population. The size of this sample allows high level of precision in the survey. Socio-economic characteristics Disparities in educational achievement have persisted between urban and rural regions, with the proportion of illiterates in Beirut standing at 8.7 % in 1997, compared to 14.8 % and 16.7 % in the two mohafazats of Nabatieh and North Lebanon, respectively. 25 20 Male average Female average 15 10 5 Beqaa South Mount 0 Beirut Illiteracy Rate (%) Illiteracy (1997) There is a significant difference between the illiteracy rate of men and women in Lebanon. It suggests that women have a lower level of education than men. This is due to the difference that existed with the old generations between the education of girls and boys. One can see this as an influencing factor in the continuance of submission of women to men (father or husband). In many countries, a close correlation can be observed between poverty and unemployment. Statistics shows that it is the case in Lebanon, a country where wage earners constitute more than two-thirds of the labor force and where unemployment compensation benefits do not exist. In fact, available data is not complete, especially concerning women’s unemployment rate. An under evaluation of women’s activity (especially in rural areas) is possible since rural women are under-represented in the information collected. The lack of women’s participation in active life may be the result of their preference to work at their house. But it was argued that current unemployment figures (10-12 %) do not reflect the level of poverty in Lebanon. The notion of "working poor" (1/3 of the population) was considered a more appropriate indicator of the situation. It reveals a hidden face of poverty : growing inequalities between low average wages and high living costs in Lebanon. Shelter The overpopulation is measured by the number of persons living in the house compared to the number of rooms per housing (more than 3 persons in a room or more than 8 persons in less than 4 rooms). Overpopulation can be seen as temporary and acceptable overpopulation or as critical overpopulation. 42.4 44.2 50 40 37.2 37.4 30.3 30 33.1 34.6 18.8 20 10 Be qa a Le ba no n Le ba no or n th Le ba So no ut n h Le ba no n N ab at ie h N M ou nt Su bu rb s of B ei ru t 0 Be i ru t Overpopulation Percentage of households living in overpopulation (1997) Situations of overpopulation change according to the mohafazats. Thus Mount Lebanon is the mohafazat where overpopulation rate is the lowest (18.8 %), while in the north and the south of Lebanon, overpopulation rate is quite high: 42.4 % and 44.2 % respectively. The degree of comfort is also important to evaluate people’s well-being. This evaluation is possible for example by studying the relative frequency of households who have housing equipment, like water utility or central heating. To compare the mohafazats we balanced these variables with a coefficient (from 1 to 3, 1 is not necessary, 2 is needed and 3 is essential): elevator (1), water from public utility (3), well (1), central heating (3), generating of electricity (3), sewerage system (3), pits (3), toilet (3), refrigerator (3), washing machine (2), television (1), video (1), telephone (2), cellular (1). By aggregating the weighted indicator for each region, it is possible to compare between the global well-being condition of the different regions. Suburbs Mount North South Mohafazats Beirut of Beirut Lebanon Lebanon Lebanon Nabatieh % of wellbeing 63.1 59.8 60.9 50.2 51.9 52.9 Beqaa Lebanon 51.4 56.2 Beirut obtains the best figure for well-being evaluation reaching 63.1 %. The mohafazats of North Lebanon, South Lebanon, Nabatieh and Beqaa are approximately at 50 %, meaning that a household living in one of these last four mohafazats have less chances to be well equipped then a household living in Beirut. Since approximately a quarter of the Lebanese houses were destroyed during the war, housing problems is an important historic issue reflecting levels of poverty . In this study, , we chose two variables to assess housing problems: the moisture in the walls and the water supply. % of households Housing problems 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Beqaa South Lebanon Mount Lebanon Beirut moisture in the walls water supply Thus, 42 % of households complain about in-house moisture in Lebanon. The percentage is the highest in Nabatieh (52.3 %). Many households suffer from the lack of water. The mohafazat that is the most affected is that of Mount Lebanon with 52.7 % of its households suffering water shortages. Transport Regarding transport, not surprisingly, statistical results show that households with low incomes do not own as many cars as households with high incomes. (12.7% of households whose monthly income do not exceed 300 000 LL own at least one car). Total of household who owned a car .. 81,3 Beqaa Mount Lebanon 53,2 51,4 52,1 58,7 62,4 South Lebanon 65,2 65,5 Beirut 100 80 60 40 20 0 The mohafazat where the proportion of people owning a car is the highest is that of Mount Lebanon (with 81.3 % of the households). In North Lebanon, Nabatieh and South Lebanon, only one household out of two have a car. One can argue that people are more in need for cars in Mount Lebanon because of the spread of the population all over this area. Health care Household who have medical problem untreated because of financial problem by class of income in Lebanon (in 1997) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 72.1 66.1 60.2 53.4 48.3 45 24.4 less than 300 300500 500- 800- 1200- 1600- 2400 800 1200 1600 2400 and + Class of income (in thousands of LL ) Health care is an integral part of basic needs. 16.6 % of households have a sick person who requires a treatment that the household cannot assume. One can notice that 72.1 % of the households who earn less than 300 000 LL and who have an untreated medical problem cannot treat it for financial reasons. Of course, this percentage decreases when the income increases. But still, in the highest income class, that of more than 2 400 000 LL, 24.4 % of the households cannot treat their medical problems for financial reasons. Household who have medical problem untreated because of financial problem by mohafazats in Lebanon (1997) 80 70 60 50 73.5 64.9 51.1 65.3 60.4 56.7 51.5 40 30 20 25.4 Lebanon Beqaa Nabatieh South Lebanon North Lebanon Mount Lebanon Suburbs of Beirut Beirut 10 0 Comparing regions, we can underline that the Beqaa is the area where statistics show the highest part of people suffering financial difficulties in treating medical problems (73.5 % of the households). Income patterns Average annual Suburbs Beirut household income of Beirut Total working 20106 17546 income 4722 3142 Others sources TOTAL 24828 20688 Mount North South Nabatieh Lebanon Lebanon Lebanon Beqaa Lebanon 19075 12042 11261 10650 12532 15241 4277 2778 2359 2418 2630 3239 23352 14820 13620 13068 15168 18480 The average annual household income in Lebanon amounts to LL 18,480,000 (average size of household is 4.8 individuals) with significant variations between the mohafazats: average annual household income reaches as low as LL 13,068,000 in the mohafazat of Nabatieh and as high as LL 24,828,000 in Beirut. Appreciation of the level of household income % of household 37.1 40 32 35 30 25 20 13.8 13.1 15 10 3.7 0.3 5 0 wealthy satisfactory just income satisfactory income hardly sufficient income insufficient unspecified income Only 13 % of Lebanese families believe their living standard to be satisfactory. 37.1 % of households stated that their income was not adequate. Households particularly suffering this feeling of hardship are those with an average monthly income below 800,000 L.L. We notice that more than 80 % of households, with an average monthly income less than 800,000 L.L., consider their income “hardly sufficient” or “insufficient”. This data is very important and show us that their purchasing power is indeed low. Distribution of households following their financial situation 0.2 2.1 Financial situation unspecified no income 11 saves 51.5 spend all its income 4.6 spend of its savings 30.6 obliged to be involved in debt 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 The study also shows that the proportion of households obliged to borrow to balance their budget reaches 30.6 % for Lebanon. More precisely only 3.45 % of the households with an average monthly income below 1,200,000L.L. can save money. The rest live from day to day, without any insurance for the future. Household budget food Distribution of the expenditure in Lebanon clothings personal care 5,3 3,5 rent 8,6 energy, water, telephone… maintenance and repairs durable goods 33,9 13,1 transport education 8,6 6,2 4,2 5,6 7,3 2,2 health spare time 1,6 various Expenditures for food-related items represent the highest share of the family expenditure basket (34 %), followed by housing (15 %) and education (13 %). Household expenditures’ distribution is quite the same between mohafazats. Moreover we can note, in terms of average annual expenditure per household, that it is Beirut that has the highest total amount of expenditures (26,134,000 L.L.), whereas the mohafazat of Nabatieh displays the lower total amount reaching only 14,205,000 L.L. This seems predictable since Beirut has the highest average annual income per household. Household expenditures distribution (1997) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Le ba no n a qa Be ab at ie h n h ut N Le ba no on ba n Le So N or th Le ba no n M ou nt Su bu rb s of Be iru Be iru t t 0% various spare time health education transport durable goods maintenance and repairs energy, water, telephone… rent personal care clothings food POVERTY MAP OF LEBANON POVERTY IN LEBANON P The UN estimates that third of Lebanese cannot care for their basic needs. But the spread of poverty varies considerably between regions and sectors. The majority of the poor lives in the suburbs of the capital and other cities. The destitute poor live in their majority in the rural areas where they represent one fourth of the population. The rest of the destitute poor are found in the suburbs of the capital and other cities. Moreover, it is believed that abject poverty is concentrated in the remote regions of Baalbeck and Hermel in the Bekaa, in Akkar in North Lebanon and the South of Lebanon. The Mapping of Living Conditions in Lebanon study adopts a basic classification of households into five degrees or levels of satisfaction based on the index score for the satisfaction of basic needs obtained by the household. The classification adopted is as follows: 1. Very low degree of satisfaction: household score of less than 0.75. 2. Low degree of satisfaction: household score varies between 0.75 and 0.99. 3. Intermediate degree of satisfaction: household score varies between 1 and 1.25. 4. High degree of satisfaction: household score varies between 1.26 and 1.49. 5. Very high degree of satisfaction: household score varies between 1.50 and 2. Key: proportion, per caza, of households with lowest index of unsatisfied basic needs (the level of basic needs is a synthesis key finalized by the Ministry of Social Affairs in 1996: it associates data pertaining to income, education, water networks and sanitation). In addition poverty can be regarded as a generator of unemployment and not only as a consequence of it. Lack of access to productive resources often prevents the poor from starting up small or medium income businesses, which currently provide the main scope for creating employment opportunities, given the saturation in the traditional sectors8. Indeed, the poor categories find it extremely difficult to gain access to banking or financial facilities. As for encouraging this, the access to credit is very important. The banking sector has remained reluctant to adopt a credit policy in favor of small and medium establishments. So non-governmental organizations, like Al Majmoua, have a very important role to play in this way. 8 UNDP (United Nation Development Program) BIBLIOGRAPHY Literature 1. Antoine Haddad, La Pauvreté au Liban (in Arabic), ESCWA, Amman, 1996. 2. Marianne El Khoury, Ugo Panizza, Poverty and Social Mobility in Lebanon: A Few Wild Guesses. Department of Economics, American University of Beirut, June 2001. 3. 2001-02 NHDR – Globalization: Towards a Lebanese Agenda. 4. Administration Centrale de la Statistique, Conditions de Vie des Ménages en 1997, Etudes Statistiques, No. 9, Beyrouth, Février 1998 (French/Arabic). 5. Rick Davies (CDS Swansea for the ODI Workshop) "Indicators of Poverty: Operational Significance", to be held on Wednesday, 8 October 1997 in London. 6. Partenariat EURO-MED, Liban, Documents de Stratégie 2002-2006 & Programme Indicatif National 2002-2004. 7. Aline Coudouel, Jesko S. Hentschel et Quentin T. Wodon, Mesure et Analyse de la pauvreté. 8. Norbert Henninger and Mathilde Snel, Where are the Poor? Experiences with the Development and Use of Poverty Maps. 9. Bjِrn Philipp , Poverty – World Bank and UNDP Concepts, February 1999. 10. Republic of Lebanon, Ministry of Social Affairs and United Nations Development Programme – UNDP, National Programme for Improving Living Conditions of the Poor in Lebanon, October 1999. Internet website 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. http://www.bdl.gov.lb http://www.worldbank.org http://www.adr.org.lb/FR http://www.undp.org.lb http://www.un.org.lb http://www.mande.co.uk/docs/democrat.htm http://www.adb.org http://www.povertymap.net/index.htm