GOES-R Progress Report for April-June 2004
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO
Project Title: Research and Development for GOES-R Risk Reduction
Principal Investigator: Thomas H. Vonder Haar, CIRA/CSU
Co-Investigators:
Mark DeMaria and Debra Molenar, NESDIS/ORA
Date: July 2004
FY2003 Funding:
$350,000
Remaining Funds as of 9/30/2003: $325,000
Remaining Funds as of 12/31/2003: $305,000
Remaining Funds as of 03/31/2004: $230,000
Remaining Funds as of 06/30/2004: $170,000
PROJECT OVERVIEW:
In advance preparation for the utilization of GOES-R for operational applications, we are
simulating GOES-R channels using an atmospheric numerical model and radiative
transfer code, and with currently available satellite observations. Three different
mesoscale weather events are being considered including severe convection, lake effect
snow, and tropical cyclones. Mesoscale weather events have fairly short time scales,
which would require the high time resolution of GOES-R observations for adequate
sampling. Three case studies have been chosen for the initial focus of this work, as
follows: 1) The Gulf coast landfall of Hurricane Lili, Sept 30-Oct 4, 2002. 2) The severe
lake-effect snowstorm in upstate NY, Feb. 12-14, 2003. 3) The Oklahoma/Kansas severe
weather outbreak, May 8-9, 2003. Additional cases are also being added, including a fog
case, a second tropical cyclone case (Isabel 2003), a second severe weather case (May
2004), and a polar low case.
For the modeling part of the study, simulations will calculate temperature, water vapor
and cloud microphysical quantities—such as mass mixing ratio and number
concentration—of each of the hydrometeor types: Cloud water, rain water, pristine ice,
snow, aggregates, graupel, and hail. This information is used as input to a different
model—called an Observational Operator, to simulate GOES-R images. The
Observational Operator will calculate radiative properties such as clear and cloudy sky
extinctions, transmittances, optical depths, and other variables that will be used to
produce the “synthetic” GOES-R satellite imagery.
For the observational part of the study, satellite data is being collected from current
sensors that have similarities with the GOES-R sensors. Although not all aspects of
GOES-R can be simulated with current sensors, these data will provide valuable insight
into the characteristics of GOES-R observations, and their application to mesoscale
forecasting.
APRIL-JUNE 2004 ACCOMPLISHMENTS:
1.Data Collection: Collection of GOES, AIRS, AVHRR, and MODIS satellite data, and
ancillary observations for the three case studies is continuing. Two additional cases have
added, including hurricane Isabel from 2003 during its peak intensity and a California fog
outbreak in January of 2004. A new severe weather case from May of 2004 is also being
added, and preliminary work has begun to identify a polar low case. Table 1 shows the
data that has been collected so far. Two terabyte mass-storage devices built from “offthe-shelf” PC equipment have been set up to house these large datasets. A web site for
displaying the various data types has also been established, and a more comprehensive
database system is under development.
( see
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/KFIntranet/GOESR_IPO/GOESR_IPO_case_study_database.html for
further details)
Table 1. Summary of data types being collected for the GOES-R case studies. An x
indicates that the data has already been obtained, and n/a indicates that data type is
not available for the particular region of the that case study.
2. Mesoscale Modeling: Simulations of the severe weather and lake effect snow events
have been completed. Hurricane Lili is currently being simulated. Due to the length of
the event—three days for our interest—the simulation will continue into the next quarter.
In addition, we are in the process of moving the mesoscale model to a 64-bit machine to
take advantage of additional RAM memory. This will allow higher resolution grids to
cover a larger region of the hurricane.
Radiative Transfer Modeling: The Observational Operator is being developed to produce
simulated satellite images for the GOES-R instrument by including coefficients--specific
to the sensor—in a subroutine called OPTRAN. We are also coordinating with the Joint
Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) so that we can maximize the use of the
community radiative transfer model to avoid duplication of effort with regard to this part
of the project. In this quarter, OPTRAN cooefficients for the GOES-R Advanced
Baseline Imager (ABI) became available to us as a result of our coordination with
JCSDA. Nine of the ten ABI channels were synthesized for the 8 May 2003 severe
weather case. Future plans include upgrading the observational operator to include
synthesizing ABI at 3.9 μm, as a result the following wavelengths were synthesized:
6.185 μm (Fig. 1), 6.95 μm (Fig. 2), 7.34 μm (Fig 3.), 8.5 μm (Fig. 4), 9.61 μm (Fig. 5),
10.35 μm (Fig. 6), 11.2 μm (Fig. 7), 12.3 μm (Fig. 8), and 13.3 μm (Fig. 9).
.
Figure 1. Synthesized GOES-R 6.185 μm
Figure 2. Synthesized GOES-R 6.95 μm.
Figure 3. Synthesized GOES-R 7.34 μm.
Figure 4. Synthesized GOES-R 8.5 μm.
Figure 5. Synthesized GOES-R 9.61 μm.
Figure 6. Synthesized GOES-R 10.35 μm.
Figure 7. Synthesized GOES-R 11.2 μm.
Figure 8. Synthesized GOES-R 12.3 μm.
Figure 9. Synthesized GOES-R 13.3 μm.
4. Research and Applications: Several science studies will be performed that utilize the
simulated GOES-R imagery described above. Progress on these studies is described
below.
a. Evaluation of Hyperspectral IR soundings: One of the first questions that will be
explored is the information content of IR soundings from hyperspectral instruments.
Temperature and moisture retrievals from the AIRS instrument for our case studies are
being obtained from NESDIS/ORA and will be compared with in-situ data. For the
Hurricane Lili case, special GPS soundings from the NOAA Gulfstream jet in the data
void regions of the Gulf of Mexico have been obtained for comparison. AIRS and in situ
soundings will also be collected for the other cases.
In the past quarter, GPS soundings from four missions into hurricane Isabel were
obtained from the NOAA Hurricane Research Division to supplement those from
hurricane Lili. Results from the evaluation of the AIRS soundings are being summarized
in preparation for presentation at the upcoming AMS meeting on Satellite Meteorology
and Oceanography.
b. Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) Data Availability Study: One of the
potential advantages of the HES is the high temporal resolution provided by the
geostationary platform. Three of the numerical model simulations (Hurricane Lili, the
May 2002 severe weather case, and the Lake Effect snow case) will be used to estimate
the number of relatively cloud free regions (determined by the cloud concentrations in the
predictions) to determine potential usefulness of the HES for these types of
meteorological phenomena. The impact of the required horizontal and temporal
resolution of the HES will also be addressed.
The development of synthetic Derived Product Imagery software was completed last
quarter, and applied to the severe weather case. This work will continue next quarter
when the hurricane Lili simulation results become available. We anticipate writing a
journal publication describing these results in the fall of 2004.
c. Data Assimilation Studies: The impact of HES soundings will be assessed for the case
studies using an idealized “identical twin” framework, followed by impact studies where
AIRS and other GOES-R-like data are assimilated using an Ensemble Kalman Filter
(EKF) data assimilation system. The EKF method has the advantage that the background
error covariance matrix is predicted, rather than specified, and so it is flow dependent.
Another advantage of the EKF method is that the adjoints of the cloud and radiative
transfer models are not required.
In the past quarter, work has continued on the application of the EKF framework to the
RAMS model.
d. Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Diagnostic Algorithms: Both simulated and
real data will be used to investigate new algorithms for estimating tropical cyclone wind
structure and intensity from GOES-R observations. For this project, additional tropical
cyclone observations, with emphasis on AVHRR and MODIS are being obtained.
In the past quarter, about 60 match-ups between current GOES and MODIS or AVHRR
IR imagery from hurricane Isabel were obtained. The AVHRR and MODIS data are
being re-mapped to the IR resolution of GOES-R (2 km), so that a quantitative estimation
of the impact of the higher resolution data on the Dvorak intensity estimation algorithm
can be obtained.
e. Severe Weather Nowcast Algorithms: Both simulated and real data will be used to
investigate new algorithms for nowcasting and short-term forecasting of severe weather
in the GOES-R era. The initial emphasis is on applications that rely on a combination of
storm environmental parameters (thermodynamic profiles, etc) and storm parameters as
determined by satellite-derived storm top structure and vertical profiles of satellitederived estimates of effective radius versus temperature.
In the past quarter, an algorithm for estimating the effective radius of cloud droplets from
IR imagery was obtained from Arnold Gruber of NESDIS/ORA. This code is being
adapted for use on current GOES and MODIS data so that the impact of the satellite
resolution, and the relationships with severe weather can be evaluated.
f. ABI Information Content Analysis: ABI imagery simulated from MODIS is being used
in an information content analysis, to identify potential new products for mesoscale
weather analysis and forecasting. Principal components are being calculated from a
subset of the MODIS channels that are close to the ABI channels for each of the case
studies. The contributions to the principal components from each MODIS channel helps
to identify new methods for extracting information from combinations of the ABI bands.
In the past quarter, the testing of the PCI technique on the case study data has continued.
Results are being prepared for presentation at the upcoming AMS conference on satellite
meteorology and oceanography.
5. Presentations and Publications: Abstracts describing this work were submitted to the
SPIE conference to be held in Denver in August of 2004 and to the AMS Conference on
Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. An overview of the project also appeared in the
CIRA Newsletter. A proposal for the 2004 CIRA project funding was submitted in April
of 2004.
PLANS FOR THE NEXT THREE MONTHS:
1-3. Data Collection, Mesoscale Modeling, Radiative Transfer Modeling
Work will continue on the data collection, numerical simulations, and observational
operator development. The hurricane Lili simulation initialized at 00 UTC on October 2
should be completed by the end of next quarter. Data collection will begin on the May
2004 severe weather case, and, if a good candidate is found, on a polar low case.
4. Research and Applications
The AIRS/GPS sounding database for hurricane Lili should be available by next quarter,
and a preliminary analysis of the accuracy of hyperspectral IR soundings in hurricane
environments will be performed. Work will then begin on the hurricane Isabel case.
b. The DPI area study will be continue by adding results from the Lake Effect Snow
and Hurricane Lili simulations.
c. The EKF assimilation system formulation with RAMS will continue. Computer
time on a Linux cluster is being purchased to speed up this development.
d. Work will continue on the data collection for the tropical cyclone intensity and
structure diagnostic algorithms.
e. The formulation and data collection for the severe weather nowcast applications
will continue.
f. The principal component analysis will continue. The goal is to include at least one
day from all of the case studies, and to compare day and night scenes.
5. Presentations and Publications
Preliminary results from the science studies will be presented at the SPIE Conference in
August of 2004 and at the AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography
to be held in September of 2004.
SPENDING PLAN:
FY03 funds arrived at CIRA in August 2003. Current funds should last through
November of 2004. A supplement of 200 K is anticipated within the next few weeks to
carry the project through the summer of 2005.
Spending has been:
Jul 03 $0 K Aug 03 $5K Sep 03 $20K Oct $5K Nov $5K Dec $10 K
Jan 04 $35K Feb 04 $ 20K Mar 04$ 20K Apr $20K May $20K Jun $20 K
($ 170 K remains of FY03 funds)
For the next three months, spending is estimated to be:
Jul $55K* Aug $20K Sep $ 25K.
* Includes an anticipated 35K for a share in a new linux cluster being purchased at CIRA.