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Equity Research 25 Apr 2014
Company Events
25-Apr
28-Apr
29-Apr
30-Apr
01-May
William Hill; Q1 2014 IMS
Holcim; Q1 2014 Results
FBD Holdings; Q1 2014 IMS
Fresh Del Monte; Q1 2014 Results
Geberit; Q1 2014 Results
Lindab; Q1 2014 Results
Panera Bread; Q1 2014 Results
St Gobain; Q1 2014 Results
Air France-KLM; Q1 2014 Results
Barclays; Q1 2014 Results
Cemex; Q1 2014 Results
DS Smith; Q4 2014 Results
Ladbrokes; Q1 2014 Results
Playtech; Q1 2014 Results
Tullow Oil; Q1 2014 Results
Aer Lingus; Q1 2014 Results
Danske Bank; Q1 2014 Results
Howden Joinery; IMS
Kerry Group; Q1 2014 Results
Kingspan; Q1 2014 IMS
Economic Events
Ireland
26-Apr
28-Apr
Retail Sales Volume MoM Mar
Property Prices MoM Mar
United Kingdom
25-Apr Retail Sales incl. Auto YoY
28-Apr Nationwide House PX MoM Apr
United States
25-Apr
29-Apr
Univ. of Michigan Conf. Apr
S&P / CS 20 City MoM Feb
Europe
28-Apr
29-Apr
European Commission Economic Forecast
M3 Money Supply YoY Mar
EC Confidence Indicators Apr
Equity Research +353 1 6419221
Equity Sales +353 1 6670222
Bloomberg GDSE<GO>
Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody
Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures.
Bank of Ireland has released an IMS indicating trading is in line with expectations and that the bank is profitable and generating capital since the start of the year.
BOI indicates its margin in Q1 is 205bps, which compares with the H213 margin of 203bps.
This is disappointing and we had been expecting a figure c.3bps higher. We understand that new business margins are running c.3%. Loans, at €83.3bn at end March, are down €1.2bn since year end with deposits flat at €74bn. Wholesale funding was c.€2bn lower in the quarter at €25bn. Elsewhere on income, BOI indicates fees and other income is running at levels akin to H2 last year.
On asset quality, trends continue to improve. Defaulted loans continue to decline from end
December and total arrears in the mortgage book (both early stage and late stage) are lower in March. Elsewhere, the bank will benefit from an uplift of c.€70m in the value of its NAMA subordinated bonds. BOI indicates its core tier 1 ratio in March was higher than the pro forma 12.3% figure in January 1 due to lower RWAs and profits in the period.
Our current net income estimate for this year is €609m, towards the top of consensus. Whilst the NAMA sub-debt uplift is helpful (but one-off), we are likely to pull back our numbers by c.10% this year. However, our more bullish expectations on the economy (we recently upgraded our domestic demand estimates by 100bps this year to 2.5% and up 50bsp next year to 2.7%) leaves us a bit more positive on new loan formation further out, so this should see any downward adjustments further out at lower levels than this year’s adjustment.
Goodbody Morning Wrap
Recommendation: Buy
Closing Price: €0.28
Eamonn Hughes
+353-1-641 9442 eamonn.g.hughes@goodbody.ie
Page 2 25 Apr. 14
William Hill reported its Q1 results this morning with group revenues +7% yoy (+5% ex
MGD impact). Q1 group operating profit was -14%, but this was impacted by two extremely poor weekends of football results in the period and a tough yoy comparative. We do not expect to make any significant changes to FY14 group EBITA numbers, but mix will change
(online increase offset by retail).
Online net revenue was +4% yoy. Online Sportsbook net revenue was -7% yoy, with amounts staked +39% yoy (in play +37% and pre-match +41%) and gross win margin of
7.1%, down 290bps versus Q113. This reduction in margin should come as no surprise given the well-flagged weak football results in the period. In online gaming, revenue was +16% yoy. Casino revenue was +22%; bingo -5% and poker -15%. Mobile now accounts for 27% of gaming net revenue, up from 17% in 2013 and versus its mid-2015 target of 40%. The underlying performance in online remains encouraging in both sports and gaming and we are likely to increase forecasts to reflect this (c.5-6%)
Retail net revenue declined by 4% in the period. OTC net revenue was -13% yoy, with amounts staked +3% and gross win margin 17.6% versus 20.7% last year (again unfavourable football results were the issue). The group has announced that it intends to close 109 shops before the end of the year given the recent increase in MGD tax (will incur
£23-24m of exceptional costs, cash cost of £17-18m). We are likely to reduce retail FY EBIT forecasts by 5%.
William Hill Australia net revenue was +499% yoy on a reported basis (given 10 extra weeks in the quarter). On an underlying basis and constant currency, amounts wagered were +11% yoy, net revenue +3% and operating profit -9%. Encouragingly unique actives increased
22% and new accounts +8%. We will leave Australian forecasts unchanged. The US business
(less than 3% of group) continues to perform strongly, wagers +23% and gross win +35%.
While Q1 operating profits were down yoy, this should come as no surprise given the well flagged poor results in the period and tough yoy comparatives. We are likely to leave forecasts unchanged for the FY but there will be mix changes.
Machine uncertainty remains an overhang, but the underlying performance in online remains the key takeaway for us. The current rating (12x FY15) captures a lot of the uncertainty at present.
Management is hosting a conference call at 8.30am this morning. Dial in details: +44-203-
059-8125; Passcode – William Hill
Goodbody Morning Wrap
Recommendation: Hold
Closing Price: £3.33
Gavin Kelleher
+353-1-641 0423 gavin.d.kelleher@goodbody.ie
Page 3 25 Apr. 14
Stora Enso has announced that it will invest €110m to convert its fine paper mill in Varkaus
(Finland) to convert production to virgin based containerboard (kraftliner). The new mill will produce 390k tonnes of paper which represents c.10% of western European capacity and c.33% of imports. Europe as a whole is short 1m tonnes of kraftliner.
Conversion work is planned to begin in autumn 2015 with a scheduled start up target of
Q415. This implies that the bulk of capacity will hit the market in 2016/17. While the closure of Peterson’s 290k tonne kraftliner mill two years ago may have left some slack in the
European kraftliner market the introduction of new capacity will likely impact pricing.
This morning’s news is a headwind for the overall industry and puts increased importance on the macro recovery in Europe. With regard to the companies under our coverage, Mondi and Smurfit Kappa are the most impacted given their net long positions in the kraftliner market.
Goodbody Morning Wrap
David O’Brien
+353-1-641 9230 david.a.o’brien@goodbody.ie
Robert Eason
+353-1-641 9271 robert.v.eason@goodbody.ie
IPD has indicated that returns from Irish commercial property in Q1 were 7.2%, the strongest since 2006. This performance was driven by a 5% uplift in capital values in the period. This brings total returns over the past 12 months to 19.4%, with c.9% of this related to income. The best returns in Q1 were in the office market at 8.4%, and office values are now up 12% in the past 6 months. The retail sector has returned to growth after 6 years of decline with capital values up 3.9% over the quarter.
The IPD data highlight a strong Q1, though data from estate agents in recent weeks would have already highlighted the strong performance. The positive returns fit within our wider thesis of a strong commercial property cycle recovery, though the strong Q1 returns highlight the need to get investment into the market sooner rather than later. The two main Irish REITs, Hibernia and Green, are 34% and 42% invested respectively.
Eamonn Hughes
+353-1-641 9442 eamonn.g.hughes@goodbody.ie
Colm Foley
+353-1-641 6042 colm.j.foley@goodbody.ie
Page 4 25 Apr. 14
After the market close last night Masco reported Q1 earnings of $0.15 which was behind consensus of $0.18. This was driven by both lower than expected sales (2% behind) and margins. The impact of weather in the US is clear to see with sales up 3% versus 9% Q4,
13% Q3, 11% Q2 and 6% Q1. In contrast, sales growth in its International operations were up 7% (7% Q4, 5% Q3, 6% Q2 and 2% Q1), reflecting recovery in European markets. The outlook is largely unchanged with management expecting the US residential sector to continue to grow, rmi activity to grow modestly and big ticket items to continue to show improvement. Management also expects “the positive trend of European economic recovery to continue”.
Yesterday, USG reported Q1 adjusted earnings of $0.14. This was behind consensus of $0.20 with the top-line 3% behind expectations but still up 4% yoy (12% Q4, 12% Q3, 15% Q2 and 4% Q1). Management highlights its ceilings business as being disappointing (not helped by disruptions to facilities) and the impact of adverse weather which impacted sales by 4-
5%. Indeed, while US wallboard shipments were +4% yoy, this was split -2% in weather affected states versus +9% in non-weather affected states. In addition, shipments are up
15-16% in April.
Overall, results from the US building materials sector continue to disappoint, not helped by adverse weather. This has also been reflected in weaker trends in the macro data in Q1. However, there are signs from the companies that weather affects have started to unwind in April which gives us comfort of a stronger Q2.
Tullow provided an update on exploration activity offshore Mauritania this morning. The second well (Tapendar, Tullow 59.1% interest) in Tullow’s Mauritanian campaign failed to encounter hydrocarbons and will be plugged and abandoned. Tapendar contributed 6.2p on the basis of a 10% risk weighting towards our total risked NAV for Tullow of £10.70. The rig is to be released and is currently scheduled to return in H1’15 to drill follow-on independent prospects (includes Sidewinder in Block C-8, 10% risked contribution to NAV of 24.6p).
Market focus will now shift towards the IMS on Wednesday and forthcoming results from
Kenya / Ethiopia, the most significant of which is likely to emerge from the Shimela prospect onshore Ethiopia. While contribution from Shimela towards risked NAV (4.5p on the basis of a 10% risk weighting) is marginal, its location in the untested Chew Bahir basin has ramifications in terms of follow-on potential as Tullow seeks to complement the South
Lokichar discoveries to the south.
While the news this morning from the Mauritanian campaign is clearly disappointing we view events onshore Kenya / Ethiopia as more significant in terms of the investment case for Tullow, a view, which will be tested by the
Shimela result due at the end of May.
Goodbody Morning Wrap
Robert Eason
+353-1-641 9271 robert.v.eason@goodbody.ie
David O’Brien
+353-1-641 9230 david.a.o’brien@goodbody.ie
Sarah Reilly
+353-1-641 6080 sarah.k.reilly@goodbody.ie
Recommendation: Buy
Closing Price: £8.61
Gerry Hennigan
+353-1-641 9274 gerry.f.hennigan@goodbody.ie
Page 5 25 Apr. 14
An update from Tullow, the operator of Licence C-10 offshore Mauritania, this morning indicated that the Tapendar exploration prospect (see Tullow commentary above) failed to encounter hydrocarbons. Premier has a 6.23% interest in the licence with Tapendar contributing 0.5p on the basis of a 10% risk weighting towards our total NAV for Premier of
£4.91.
While clearly disappointing, the limited equity retained by Premier in the licence mitigates the impact on our risked NAV assessment for Premier Oil.
Goodbody Morning Wrap
Recommendation: Buy
Closing Price: £3.14
Gerry Hennigan
+353-1-641 9274 gerry.f.hennigan@goodbody.ie
Starbucks’ Q2 results, which cover the 13 weeks to March 30 th , released yesterday evening were ahead of consensus, with global comparable sales up 6% (vs. consensus of 5.4%).
Both the Americas and EMEA grew comparable sales by 6% (consensus of 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively). The group retained its guidance of mid-single digit global comparable sales growth.
In the conference call, the group identified its food offering as the single largest incremental driver of growth in the US. It contributed 2% to the 6% comparable sales growth, a significant level considering Starbucks has a food offering in only three quarters of its US stores. The new sandwich launch in March has lifted sales of those products by 50% in Q2, while the group continues to undergo strenuous testing of its lunch offering ahead of the rollout of the enhanced lunch program next year. The group sees elevating its food program as both a “top priority and a significant opportunity to grow.”
Greencore began a $50m supply contract with Starbucks in April 2012, with a primary focus on the lunch offering. The positive commentary and continued top priority status of Starbucks’ food offering bodes well for Greencore’s US operations. The prospect of an enhanced lunch program rollout next year suggests the potential for further business for Greencore, although the precise timing is dependent on Starbucks. Greencore are due to report H1 results on May 20 th .
Page 6 25 Apr. 14
Recommendation: Hold
Closing Price: £2.59
Liam Igoe
+353-1-641 9450 liam.a.igoe@goodbody.ie
ECB president Mario Draghi, yesterday, re-affirmed the ECB’s “unanimous” commitment to unconventional monetary policy if there is any worsening in the outlook for inflation. Echoing his comments at the March ECB meeting, he said that a further weakening in the medium term inflation outlook could trigger a “more broad-based asset purchase programme”.
The ECB’s current forecast is for a prolonged period of low inflation before it gradually rises to its 2% target. However, the unexpectedly weak inflation reading of 0.5% in March has raised risks of deflation in the region and updated ECB forecasts are expected at its June policy meeting. Indeed, despite the Euro area Composite PMI beating expectations by rising to 54 in April, from 53.1 previously, the output price component continued to weaken indicating that inflation remains subdued. The strength of the euro is also becoming an
“increasingly important factor” in the ECB’s analysis of price stability.
If inflation does not, as the ECB expects, rebound somewhat from the very weak
March outturn and the euro continues to strengthen, putting further downward pressure on prices, the impetus on the ECB to act to offset the risk of deflation using unconventional measures will increase.
Goodbody Morning Wrap
Juliet Tennent
+353-1-641 9469 juliet.c.tennent@goodbody.ie
AIB yesterday announced that it will be paying its annual preference share dividend in the form of shares rather than on a cash basis. This will see the bank issue shares equivalent to
€280m to the State on May 13 (8% coupon on €3.5bn). The final amount of shares will be determined by using the average share price over the 30 days immediately preceding the annual dividend date. Elsewhere, AIB’s statement highlighted that the 25% par-value stepup in the principal amount (applicable from the fifth anniversary of the issue of the preference shares) applies from 13 May.
With AIB only turning profitable in H2 this year, the payment in shares should not be a surprise to the market. In relation to the step-up, the liability crystallises on redemption, but with the State owning practically all of the capital structure – equity, preference shares and cocos - we are not so sure the actual step-up is meaningful in a commercial sense. Our base case is that all of the preference shares are converted to equity in any case, though the State may await the ECB stress test results to determine whether there is some leeway for only partial conversion (which would help future ROEs).
Recommendation: N/R
Closing Price: €0.12
Eamonn Hughes
+353-1-641 9442 eamonn.g.hughes@goodbody.ie
Page 7 25 Apr. 14
The Irish Times reports this morning that the special liquidators of IBRC have told the government that they anticipate proceeds from loan portfolio sales of €12.9bn. This implies no additional liability for the State from the IBRC wind-up. The €12.9bn figure compares to a
€19.8bn par value out of a total loan book of €21.7bn, so the proceeds equate to 65% of the par value.
The market has already been prepped that the IBRC loan sale process has performed ahead of expectations. In recent months, the success of this wind-up has also seen the State consider accelerating its plans for NAMA, with various scenario planning outcomes mooted in the media in recent weeks. Any faster than anticipated wind-up of NAMA will have a beneficial impact on AIB, given 15% of its financial assets are low-yielding NAMA senior bonds which structurally depress its margin. In addition, any acceleration in the disposal of assets would suit the likes of the REITs.
Goodbody Morning Wrap
Eamonn Hughes
+353-1-641 9442 eamonn.g.hughes@goodbody.ie
Colm Foley
+353-1-641 6042 colm.j.foley@goodbody.ie
Page 8 25 Apr. 14
Top 10 Covered Companies
Company
AIB Group
CRH
Wolseley
Ryanair
Kerry Group
Tullow Oil
IAG
Lufthansa
Bank of Ireland easyJet
Indices
%
ISEQ
FTSE 100
DAX 30
CAC 40
FTSE Eurofirst 300
Nasdaq
S&P 500
Dow Jones
Nikkei 225
Exchange Rates
Price
(LC)
0.12
20.94
34.04
7.47
55.30
8.61
4.13
19.27
0.28
16.99
Price
4,922.63
6,703.00
9,548.68
4,479.54
1,343.27
4,148.34
1,878.61
16,501.65
14,404.99
Mkt Cap
(LCM)
63,591
15,001
9,339
10,623
9,722
7,818
7,668
8,821
8,344
6,714
Stg/€
US$/€
CHF/€
JPY/€
Bonds
US 2 Yr
US 10 Yr
UK 2 Yr
UK 10 Yr
BD 2 Yr
BD 10 Yr
Irish 10 Yr
Commodities
%
Brent (ICE $/bbl)
Gasoline (NYM $/Gal)
Heat Oil (NYM $/Gal)
Nat.Gas
Gold $/oz
Silver $/ozt
Copper U$/MT
Wheat $/BU
Source : FactSet
Current
0.823
1.382
1.219
141.284
Yield
0.44
2.68
0.71
2.69
0.18
1.53
2.84
Current
110.33
3.09
3.01
4.71
1,291.50
19.06
6,731.00
6.97
Absolute
1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth
-3.9
-0.0
-2.4
0.3
-15.2
7.9
-0.4
-0.8
0.3
-0.1
3.3
0.8
1.1
-0.7
3.0
0.5
3.8
13.1
1.5
0.5
-2.1
0.8
1.4
3.0
-0.7
1.0
0.6
2.8
-7.4
4.1
Ytd
9.8
14.4
-0.6
19.2
9.5
0.7
3.0
24.9
9.9
10.6
Goodbody Morning Wrap
Relative to European Sector
1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth
-4.2
-0.4
-0.5
-1.1
0.0
-0.4
-3.5
-0.8
2.2
-0.3
-0.0
-1.7
-18.1
4.2
1.0
-3.0
0.1
8.9
Ytd
7.3
11.7
-1.8
16.4
6.9
-1.9
1.1
0.1
-2.4
0.6
0.3
1.9
-1.8
-0.1
-2.9
-0.8
-10.6
2.1
0.6
22.0
10.2
12.9
7.3
1,473.4
9.3
15.5
ISEQ performance
1 Day
-0.51
0.42
0.05
0.64
0.33
0.52
0.17
-
-0.97
1 Day
-0.00
-0.02
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
1 day
1.12
-0.13
1.13
-0.53
0.49
-2.06
1.29
2.01
1 Week
0.32
1.17
1.48
1.08
1.10
1.29
0.74
0.57
-0.09
1 Mth
1.49
2.80
3.92
4.75
3.83
-1.85
1.14
1.38
-0.49
Px 1 day Px 1 Week Px Dec13
0.824
0.823
0.832
1.383
1.384
1.378
1.220
141.593
1.219
141.489
1.225
144.829
-0.45
-11.58
Avg Ytd
0.827
1.373
Ytd
8.44
-0.68
-0.04
4.27
2.04
-0.68
1.64
1.223
141.005
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,600
Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
STOXX 600 performance
340
330
320
310
Yld 1 Wk Yld 1 Mth Yld 3 Mth
0.04
-0.04
0.00
-0.05
0.09
-0.04
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.02
5 day
0.73
1.14
0.28
-0.76
-0.58
-2.85
1.51
-0.36
0.07
0.00
-0.01
-0.05
-0.22
1 Mth
3.30
6.87
3.41
10.03
-1.47
-5.64
3.39
-2.52
300
290
280
0.18
-0.08
0.06
-0.13
-0.20
270
Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
FTSE 250 performance
1 Yr
8.45
12.45
6.43
12.94
-9.59
-16.80
-2.95
0.65
17,000
16,500
16,000
15,500
15,000
14,500
14,000
13,500
13,000
Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
P/E
2014f 2015f n/m 24,600.0
24.5
17.5
18.2
15.6
20.7
19.9
23.2
15.7
17.9
28.2
Jan-14
Jan-14
Jan-14
6.9
6.8
971.9
12.9
Apr-14
Apr-14
Apr-14
Page 9 25 Apr. 14
Issuer & Analyst Disclosures
Goodbody Morning Wrap
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Regulatory Disclosures
Page 10 25 Apr. 14
Other disclosures
Goodbody Morning Wrap
We would like to inform you that Eamonn Hughes holds shares in AIB Group
We would like to inform you that Robert Eason holds shares in Kingspan
We would like to inform you that Robert Eason holds shares in SIG
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Hibernia REIT
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While all reasonable care has been taken in the production and dissemination of this report it is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgement. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you.
Private customers having access, should not act upon it in anyway but should consult with their independent professional advisors. The price, value and income of certain investments may rise or may be subject to sudden and large falls in value.
You may not recover the total amount originally invested. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance; neither should simulated performance. The value of securities may be subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities.
All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise is copyright to Goodbody Stockbrokers. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Goodbody Stockbrokers.
Goodbody, Ballsbridge Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland
T (+353 1) 6670400 W www.goodbody.ie E research@goodbody.ie
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