CLIMATE CHANGE - WHAT DO WE KNOW? AN OUTLINE OF THE

ELECTRONIC VERSION

CLIMATE CHANGE - WHAT DO WE KNOW? AN

OUTLINE OF THE SCIENCE & IPCC FINDINGS

RESEARCH BULLETIN NO 2/99

HELEN GREGORCZUK

QUEENSLAND PARLIAMENTARY LIBRARY

Research Publications and Resources Section

BRISBANE

February 1999

ISSN 1325-1341

ISBN 0 7242 7848 6

© Queensland Parliamentary Library, 1999

Copyright protects this publication. Except for purposes permitted by the Copyright

Act 1968, reproduction by whatever means is prohibited, other than by Members of the Queensland Parliament in the course of their official duties, without the prior written permission of the Parliamentary Librarian, Queensland Parliamentary Library.

Inquiries should be addressed to: Director, Publications & Resources, Queensland

Parliamentary Library, Parliament House, George Street, Brisbane.

Director: Ms Mary Seefried. (Tel: 3406 7116)

Information about Research Publications can be found on the Internet at: http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/library/research/index.html

ABSTRACT

Climate change has been a volatile issue throughout the 1990’s. Mounting scientific evidence suggests that human activities are causing a build up of greenhouse gases and that this in turn could be leading to changes to the world’s climate. It has been a difficult issue to resolve because it is widely accepted that virtually all human activity has some impact on greenhouse gas levels. In addition, there are economic costs, scientific uncertainty, political difficulties, and equity questions between developed and developing nations in any attempt to reduce emissions. International negotiations have resulted in the 1992 United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change which has the general aim of stabilising greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. Subsequently to the

Convention, more precise content has been given to this general aim by the

Conference of the Parties which has produced the Kyoto Protocol which when it comes into effect will impose specific emission reduction targets on developed country parties.

This paper is the first in a three part series. It examines the scientific explanations of the greenhouse effect and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s findings on climate change. The second paper in the series From Rio to Buenos

Aires: The International Negotiations on Climate Change explores the legal response through the International Convention and subsequent Conference of the

Parties, both at Kyoto and Buenos Aires. Australia’s policy response through the

National Greenhouse Strategy and Queensland’s initiatives are outlined in Climate

Change Response Strategies: A Hot Issue for Queensland the final paper in the trilogy.

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1

2. BACKGROUND -CLIMATE CHANGE & GREENHOUSE GASES ........ 1

2.1 T HE G REENHOUSE E FFECT ............................................................................ 1

2.2 G

LOBAL

W

ARMING

& C

LIMATE

C

HANGE

...................................................... 4

2.3 C OMPLICATING FACTORS IN GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY AN INCREASE IN

GREENHOUSE GASES

................................................................................... 5

3. CONNECTING GREENHOUSE GASES TO CLIMATE CHANGE -

WHAT KNOWLEDGE IS THERE? ....................................................... 6

3.1 F INDINGS OF THE IPCC - W ORKING G ROUP I ................................................ 7

3.2 F

INDINGS OF THE

IPCC - W

ORKING

G

ROUP

II ............................................... 7

3.3 F INDINGS OF THE IPCC - W ORKING G ROUP III............................................ 10

3.4 S

CIENTIFIC

C

ERTAINTY

............................................................................... 11

4. OTHER DIFFICULTIES WITH LIMITING GHG’S ................................ 14

4.1 D

ISPARATE

E

FFECTS

................................................................................... 15

5. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................. 15

BIBLIOGRAPHY.............................................................................................. 17

APPENDIX A - LIST OF ACRONYMS, TABLE OF CHEMICAL

COMPOUND ABBREVIATIONS, UNITS OF WEIGHT ................... 21

APPENDIX B - NEWS ARTICLES.................................................................. 22

Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings Page 1

1. INTRODUCTION

There is nothing controversial about the notion that climate has changed dramatically over the history of the Earth.

1 Evidence of the ice ages and interglacial phases of the Earth are well documented facts.

2 The controversy stems however from the purported correlations between human activity, the production of greenhouse gases, and an accelerated rate of climate change. Virtually all human activity has some impact on greenhouse gas levels, and as such any response to climate change has widespread consequences. Scientific uncertainty, economic costs, political difficulties, and questions of equity between developed and developing nations, have all plagued the attempts to deal with the issue.

This paper provides a background on the science relating to climate change, and the questions regarding the certainty of that science. The conclusions proposed by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and accepted by the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are outlined. The difficulties in dealing with climate change are also highlighted.

2. BACKGROUND -CLIMATE CHANGE & GREENHOUSE GASES

The dominant scientific view of the time rests upon the assumption that the build up of gases in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide, is responsible for the documented changes in climate in the last few decades. The emphasis is on the view that the climate is warming, and that this is caused by the human-caused build up of these greenhouse gases.

2.1 T HE G REENHOUSE E FFECT

The Greenhouse Effect is a natural phenomenon, first described by the Swedish chemist Arrhenius late last century.

3 Sunlight passes through the Earth’s

1

See for example, Dale Jamieson, Ethics and Climate Change, Annual Ethics and Public Life

Lecture for 1998, QUT, Brisbane, 1998, p 4.

2

Australian Academy of Science, Report of a Committee on Climatic Change, Report 21,

Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, March 1976, p 7.

3

Ian Lowe, ‘The Science of Greenhouse’, in Greenhouse What’s to Be Done?, ed Ken Coghill,

Pluto Press, Melbourne, 1990, pp 1-14, p 1.

Page 2 Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings atmosphere, heating the Earth’s surface.

4 To balance this incoming energy, the land and oceans release heat, or infrared radiation into the atmosphere.

5 The so called

“greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere absorb and therefore trap part of this radiation, warming the Earth. Without this greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature of the Earth would be minus 18

°

C. As Dale Jamieson states 6 :

The fact that Earth’s atmosphere traps heat in the way that it does makes life on this planet possible.

Figure 1

Source: http://www.environment.gov.au/portfolio/esd/climate/factsheets/1greendiagramenhanced.gif, downloaded February 1999.

4

CSIRO, ‘The Greenhouse Effect - Information Sheet’, October 1996, on internet at http://www.dar.csiro.au/info/material/info98_2.htm.

5

CSIRO, ‘The Greenhouse Effect - Information Sheet’, October 1996, on internet at http://www.dar.csiro.au/info/material/info98_2.htm.

6

Dale Jamieson, Ethics and Climate Change, 1998 QUT Annual Ethics and Public Life

Lecture, QUT, Brisbane, 1998, p 4.


The main greenhouse gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s).

7 Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and also hydrofluorocarbons (HFC’s), although currently present in small quantities, are also considered significant because they are very long lived and their projected growth could contribute several percent to radiative forcing 8 during the 21 st

century.

9 Apart from the fluorocarbons all of these gases are naturally occurring.

10

The problem is that human activities are increasing the levels of most greenhouse gases 11 , thereby intensifying the greenhouse effect. This is known as the enhanced

greenhouse effect. Burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas and the clearing and burning of vegetation create increases in carbon dioxide. Excluding water vapour, carbon dioxide makes the biggest contribution to the enhanced greenhouse effect, approximately two thirds of the total.

12 Methane and nitrous oxide make the next biggest contributions to global warming and are due to agriculture (digestive processes of cattle, rice cultivation, waste decomposition from landfills and changes in land use through agriculture). Nitrous oxide is also released from burning vegetation, fertiliser use, and industry emissions.

13 Ozone (generated by exhaust fumes from cars, planes etc) and CFC’s (manufactured industrially) also contribute to this effect.

14 See Fig 2.

7

UNEP, Climate Change Information Kit, 1997, found on internet at http://www.unep.ch/iuc/submenu/infokit/factcont.htm, p 5.

8

Radiative forcing is a measure of additional warming created by the re-radiation of the energy absorbed by greenhouse gases. The ability of a gas to absorb and re-radiate the earth’s terrestrial radiation varies between greenhouse gases.

9

IPCC, Summary for Policymakers: The Science of Climate Change - IPCC Working Group 1,

1995 Report, UNEP and WMO, found on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg1.htm, p 1.

10


11

It is unclear as to whether human activity increases the amount of water vapour.

12

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Committee, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1996:

With Methodology Supplements, Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, October 1998, p xiv.

13

Lorraine Elliott, The Global Politics of the Environment, Macmillan Press, Melbourne, 1998, p 61.

14

Queensland Centre for Climate Change, ‘What is Climate Change?’, found on internet at http://www.dnr.qld.gov.au/longpdk/climatechange/index.html, October 1998, p 1.

Page 4 Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings

Figure 2 Contribution to Total CO

2

Emissions by Gas in Australia, 1996 (excluding land clearing)

15

2.2 G LOBAL W ARMING & C LIMATE C HANGE

In the long term the earth must get rid of energy at the same rate at which it receives energy from the sun.

16 The effect of these rising levels of greenhouse gases is that the climate must change in order to restore that balance between outgoing and incoming energy.

17 Warming up is the simplest way for the climate to get rid of the extra energy, although the exact effect on future climate is still unclear.

18 Scientific evidence accepted by the UNFCCC said heating up of the Earth’s surface from gases trapped in the atmosphere caused fiercer and more frequent storms and increased deserts, greater occurrence of bush fires, rising sea levels and melting of polar ice.

19 Even a small rise in temperature will be accompanied by many other

15

This figure is copied from the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1996, on internet at http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/inventory/facts/fact4.html.

16


17


18

CSIRO, ‘Greenhouse: Questions and Answers’, on internet at http://www.dar.csiro.au/cc/gh_faq.htm, January 1999, p 1.

19

The IPCC’s findings are discussed under the next subheading. See also David Luff, ‘Coup for

Australia on Global Gas Limits’, Courier Mail, 12 December 1997, p 1.

Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings Page 5 changes, for example in cloud cover and wind patterns, 20 however it not certain whether changes to cloud cover and wind patterns will cause warming or cooling.

There have also been recent statements that 1998 was the hottest year on record worldwide and that the 1990’s have been the hottest decade.

21

2.3 C OMPLICATING FACTORS IN GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY AN

INCREASE IN GREENHOUSE GASES

Although it is widely accepted that the build up of greenhouse gases causes warming up, there are also certain negative feedbacks (factors which counteract the warming). For example sulphur emissions from coal and oil-fired power stations produce clouds of microscopic particles that reflect sunlight back out into space.

This process, sometimes referred to as the “sulphur” or “aerosol effect”, partially counteracts greenhouse warming.

22 However, it does not form a satisfactory solution to greenhouse gas build up because the sulphates remain in the atmosphere for a relatively short time only and in fact cause other environmentally damaging effects such as acid rain.

23

Levels of greenhouse gases are determined by a balance between “sources” and

“sinks”, sources being processes which generate greenhouse gases, and sinks processes that destroy or remove them. Human activity has increased greenhouse gas levels by introducing new sources and interfering with natural sinks, 24 (for example trees absorb carbon dioxide, and so deforestation has reduced a natural sink). The balance between sources and sinks is complicated by the effect of climate

20


21

Eg. Seth Borenstein, ‘1990’s are the Hottest 10 Years Ever Recorded’, Miami Herald,

12 January 1999, on internet at http://www.herald.com/usa/digdocs/082795.htm. See also

‘1998 Was A Hot One’ CBS News, 12 January 1999, on internet at http://www.cbs.com/prd1/now/template.display?p_story=106776&p_who=network.

22

John Taylor, ‘The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change: an Australian Perspective’, in

Climate Change in Australia - Environmental, Socioeconomic and Political Considerations, eds Tony Norton and Owen Williams, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, ANU,

Canberra, 1990, pp 5-14, p 6-7.

23


24


Page 6 Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings change on the ability of sinks to absorb greenhouse gases. For example it has been suggested that climate change may in fact restrict the ability of forests to absorb excess CO

2

.

25

3. CONNECTING GREENHOUSE GASES TO CLIMATE CHANGE -

WHAT KNOWLEDGE IS THERE?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) brings together the world’s leading scientists to report on climate change. The IPCC was established in 1988 by

UNEP and WMO to assess and coordinate scientific research about climate change.

26 It has been described as the source of the “most reliable and accurate

scientific data on climate change”.

27 The IPCC contains Working Groups on scientific analysis (Working Group I), impacts (Working Group II) and response strategies (Working Group III) which were set up in November 1988 and proceeded to work in parallel under instructions from the IPCC.

28

The First Assessment, published in 1990, provided a scientific and technical base for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992.

Subsequently to the Convention, the task of the IPCC has been described as providing a sound scientific basis that would enable policy-makers to better interpret dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

29 Australia has accepted and endorsed the IPCC’s 1995 findings.

30

25

Climate Action Network, ‘Is it Already Happening?’, Internet Article, downloaded January

1999, from http://www.igc.org/climate/Happening.html

26

Wayne Gumley, ‘Legal and Economic Responses to Global Warming - An Australian

Perspective’, Environmental and Planning Law Journal, 14(5), October 1997, pp 341-355, p 342.

27

Ros Kelly, ‘The Potential Impacts of Climate Change’, Contemporary Australian Speeches on

Vital Issues, 1(1), March 1992, pp 7-9, p 7.

28

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Policymakers’ Summary of the Potential

Impacts on Climate Change, Report from Working Group II to IPCC, AGPS, Canberra, 1990, p 1.

29

IPCC, Climate Change 1995: IPCC Second Assessment Report, found on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/synt.htm, p 2.

30

Australian Greenhouse Office, The National Greenhouse Strategy, Commonwealth of

Australia, 1998, p 97.


3.1 F INDINGS OF THE IPCC - W ORKING G ROUP I

• Climate has changed over the past century. The IPCC has found that the average global surface temperature has increased by somewhere between 0.3

and 0.6 degrees Celsius since the late 19 th

century.

31 Global sea level has risen by between 10 and 25 cm over the past 100 years and much of the rise may be related to the increase in global mean temperature. The 1990 to mid

1995 persistent warm-phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (which caused droughts and floods in many areas) was unusual in the context of the last 120 years.

32

• The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.

33

• Climate is expected to continue to change in the future. The IPCC has developed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse gas and aerosol precursor emissions based on different assumptions regarding population, economic growth, land use, technological changes, energy availability and fuel mix during the period of 1990 to 2100. All model simulations showed a number of features. Namely, greater surface warming of the land than of the sea in winter; a maximum surface warming in high northern latitudes in winter; little surface warming over the Arctic in summer; an enhanced global mean hydrological cycle; and increased precipitation and soil moisture in high latitudes in winter.

34

• There are still many uncertainties.

3.2 F INDINGS OF THE IPCC - W ORKING G ROUP II

Despite these uncertainties, Working Group II has reached conclusions regarding potential direct and indirect impacts on agriculture and forestry, natural terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology and water resources, human settlements, energy, transport,

31


1995 Report, found on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg1.htm, p 2. See also

Environment Australia, A Simple Explanation of the Greenhouse Effect, Internet Factsheet, found at http://www.environment.gov.au/portfolio/esd/climate/factsheet/fs_gheffect.html, p 1.

32


1995 Report, found on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg1.htm, p 2.

33


1995, p 3.

34


1995, p 5.

Page 8 Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings and industrial sectors, human health, and air quality, oceans and coastal zones, seasonal snow cover, ice and permafrost.

35

For example, Working Group II found that even slight climate changes can cause large problems for water supplies. Particularly vulnerable are semi-arid and arid regions or overpopulated areas where demand and pollution has led to water scarcity.

36 Most of Australia fits into this former category. This change in water availability represents one of the more serious impacts of climate change on agricultural production world-wide.

37

In relation to human settlements, Working Group II noted that changes in climate and particularly global warming are predicted to have major impacts on health, particularly in large urban areas. Warmer climates allow infection to spread more easily, and potentially viral and parasitic diseases would be found in higher latitudes, thereby putting more people at risk.

38 Drought-related famine would increase and deaths generally from heat-stress would rise. Working Group II described the social consequences of this:

As similar events have in the past, these changes could initiate large migrations of people, leading over a number of years to severe disruptions of settlement patterns and social instability in some areas.

39

In relation to ocean levels, Working Group II found that a one metre rise in sea levels by 2100 would render some islands uninhabitable, displace tens of millions of people, seriously threaten low-lying urban areas, flood productive land, contaminate fresh water supplies, threaten fisheries and change coastlines.

40 Estimated land losses range from 0.05% for Uruguay, to 6% for the Netherlands, 17.5% for

35

IPCC, Policymakers’ Summary of the Potential Impacts on Climate Change, Report from

Working Group II to IPCC, AGPS, Canberra, 1990, pp 2-5.

36


Working Group II to IPCC, AGPS, Canberra, 1990, p 3.

37



38

Anthony McMichael & Andrew Haines, ‘Global Climate Change: the Potential Effects on

Health’, British Medical Journal, v 315, 27 September 1997, pp 805-809, p 807.

39

IPCC, Policymakers’ Summary of the Potential Impacts on Climate Change, Report from

Working Group II to IPCC, 1990, p 3.

40

IPCC, Summary for Policymakers: Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts, Adaptations and

Mitigation of Climate Change - IPCC Working Group II, 1995 Report, p 8.


Bangladesh, to about 80% of the Majuro Atoll in the Marshall Islands.

41 All of these impacts would be exacerbated if droughts and storms become more severe.

42

On the other hand, global warming will reduce sea ice and this could be of some benefit to shipping, but will be detrimental to ice dependent marine mammals and birds.

43 Nutrient availability, biological productivity, and the structure and functions of marine ecosystems may be affected. These changes would have implications for tourism and recreation, transport and off-shore structures.

44

The IPCC Working Group II have also highlighted that climate change is not an isolated problem but can combine with other environmental problems to create other and possibly unforeseen effects. For example, climate change, pollution and ultraviolet-B radiation from ozone depletion can interact, reinforcing their damaging effects on materials and organisms.

45 Further, because the climate does not respond immediately to greenhouse gas emissions, it will continue to change for hundreds of years after atmospheric concentrations have stabilised.

46

41



42


Working Group II to IPCC, 1990, p 4.

43



44



45


Mitigation of Climate Change - IPCC Working Group II, 1995 Report, UNEP, found on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg2.htm, p 1.

46

‘Global Warming’, UN Chronicle, No. 2 1997, pp 12-16, p 14.


3.3 F INDINGS OF THE IPCC - W ORKING G ROUP III

Working Group III was restructured in November 1992 and charged with conducting: 47 technical assessments of the socio-economics of impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate change over both the short and long term and at the regional and global levels.

Working Group III made a number of observations about policy response options and associated costs. These included the view that a sensible way to deal with climate change is through a portfolio of actions aimed at mitigation, adaptation and an improvement of knowledge. Working Group III observed that the challenge is not to find the best policy today for the next 100 years, but to select a prudent strategy and to adjust it over time in the light of new information. It also noted that in most countries there are significant “no regrets” 48 opportunities available.

Further, it stated that the risk of aggregate net damage due to climate change, consideration of risk aversion, and the precautionary principle, provide rationales for action beyond no regrets.

49

It found that people and ecosystems will need to adapt to the future climate regime.

Past and current emissions have meant that there will be some degree of climate change in the next century. Adapting to these effects will require a good understanding of socio-economic and natural systems, their sensitivity to climate change, and their inherent ability to adapt. Many strategies are available for

47

IPCC, Summary for Policymakers: The Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change -

the IPCC Working Group III, 1995 Report, on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg3.htm.

48

“No regrets” measures are those which have environmental or economic benefits in their own right (such as reduced energy costs or reduced air pollution) which at the same time contribute to the overall effort in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Sometimes described as “measures worth doing anyway”. See IPCC, ‘Summary for Policymakers: The Economic and Social

Dimensions of Climate Change - the IPCC Working Group III’, 1995 Report, on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg3.htm, p 16.

49

IPCC, ‘Summary for Policymakers: The Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change

- the IPCC Working Group III’, 1995 Report, p 2.

Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings Page 11 promoting adaptation and mitigation.

50 For example, policymakers could consider the following measures 51 :

• implementing energy efficiency measures, including the removal of institutional barriers to energy efficiency improvements;

• phasing out existing distortionary policies and practices that increase greenhouse gas emissions, such as some subsidies and regulations, noninternalisation of environmental costs and distortions in transport pricing

• implementing measures to enhance sinks of greenhouse gases, such as improving forest management and land use practice.

Stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will require a major effort. Based on current trends, the growth in emissions of CO

2

and other greenhouse gases is expected to result in the equivalent of a doubling of preindustrial CO

2

concentrations in the atmosphere by 2030, and a trebling by 2100.

Stabilising global CO

2

emissions at their current levels would postpone CO

2 doubling to 2100. It is predicted that emissions would eventually have to drop to less than 30% of their current levels if concentrations were to be stabilised at doubled CO

2

levels sometime in the twenty-first century. Such cuts would have to be made despite growing populations and an expanding world economy.

52

3.4 S CIENTIFIC C ERTAINTY

The complexity of the Earth’s climate system and the lack of knowledge of the various interrelationships within that system has created a certain degree of scepticism amongst some scientists and commentators about the threats posed by the enhanced Greenhouse effect.

53 For example, despite the IPCC findings, there is still a view amongst some scientists and commentators that global warming is a natural phenomenon not necessarily, or only partially, linked to human activity; or that there is no substantive basis for the degree of global warming predicted or the

50


51

IPCC, Summary for Policymakers: The Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change -

the IPCC Working Group III, 1995 Report, on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg3.htm, p 2.

52


53

For an example of differing views of climate change science see the articles in Appendix B to this paper.

Page 12 Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings predicted effects.

54 There is also a view that change is inherent in climate and that the extent of that natural variation is unknown. The ability to assess change requires a baseline for what ‘normal’ is, and in the context of climate that baseline is extremely short.

55 For example, sea surface temperature records only go back to the late 1800s.

56

As Oliver Morton puts it 57 :

One of the greatest unanswered questions in climatology is the range of the climate’s natural variations. How does it vary when left to itself? How long are the variations? How extreme? These natural fluctuations may account for some of what is seen as greenhouse warming, but at the same time they might mask it.

Other scientific uncertainty relates to the interaction of the enhanced greenhouse effect with other climatic phenomena for example, the El Nino effect (ie the extensive warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that recurs every two to seven years and leads to major disruptions to weather patterns across the Pacific and further afield in the tropical and middle latitudes of both hemispheres).

58 El Nino is associated with a change in the atmospheric pressure at Darwin relative to that of

Tahiti, a phenomenon known as the Southern Oscillation.

59 Although it has been suggested that the greenhouse effect may be changing the way natural climate

54

eg. Richard Lindzen, ‘Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of Alleged Scientific

Consensus’, Environmental Backgrounder, no 10, 18 June 1992, pp 1-12. I Enting,

‘Greenhouse Studies: Assessing Uncertainties Versus Debunking Hype’, Australian Physicist,

27(8) August 1990, pp 167-170. William Stevens, ‘Skeptics Are Challenging Dire

‘Greenhouse Views’, New York Times, December 13 1989, p 1. Geoff Hogbin, ‘Global

Warming: The Mother of All Environmental Scares’, Policy, Autumn 1998, pp 31-37, p 31.

55

El Nino Special Report, ‘El Nino Goes Critical: What’s Happening to the Pacific’, New

Scientist, 145(1963), 4 February 1995, on internet at http://elnino.newscientist.com/nsplus/insight/elnino/critical.html, p 4. For example, sea surface temperature records go back on to the late 1800s.

56

Associated Press, ‘Egyptian Records Reveal El Nino’, 4 February 1999, on internet at http://www.msnbc.com/news/238476.asp.

57

Oliver Morton, ‘The Storm in the Machine’, New Scientist, No 2119, 31 January 1998, pp 22-

27, p 22.

58

For an explanation of El Nino, see John Zillman, ‘El Nino and Australian Drought’, Focus

(Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering), No 99, November/December 1998, pp 13-19, p 13 & p 19.

59

Michele Betsill, Michael Glantz and Kristine Crandall, ‘Preparing for El Nino: What Role for

Forecasts?’, Environment, 39(10), December 1997, pp 6-26, p 6.

Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings Page 13 variations like El Nino occur or increasing their intensity 60 , it hasn’t been conclusively established.

61 This seems to be because of a mismatch between the responses of the atmosphere and the ocean. That is, although the air adjusts quickly to changes in sea surface temperatures, the ocean adjusts more slowly to changes in the air, because the ocean is conservative of energy and responds to both present and past winds.

62 Interestingly, recent research using ancient Nile records to estimate the frequency in the past of the El Nino, seems to suggest that over a thousand years ago, there were relatively frequent El Ninos, similar to the pattern of the last twenty years.

63

Further, there is a competing idea that the greenhouse effect is only partially responsible for global warming and that some of the warming at least could be attributed to increased solar activity.

64 Scepticism has even been raised in relation to the emphasis on warming, given that it is really only in the last two decades that the trend has received any attention. As late as 1976, there were studies being conducted into the hypothesis that the earth was actually undergoing a continuing cooling trend.

65 In addition there is a view that the dire predictions about global warming are over-stated since they do not take into account scientific developments such as climate engineering which may counteract and control climate change.

66

The UNFCCC however has accepted the evidence of the IPCC that there is a real threat posed by the enhanced greenhouse effect, particularly given the complex nature, the uncertainties, variables, and as yet unknown interrelationships of the climate system. It has been suggested that the debate “has moved from one of if

60

Morton, p 27.

61

John Zillman, ‘El Nino and Australian Drought’, Focus (Academy of Technological Sciences

and Engineering), No 99, November/December 1998, pp 13-19, p 19.

62

El Nino Special Report, ‘El Nino Goes Critical: What’s Happening to the Pacific’, New

Scientist, 145(1963), 4 February 1995, on internet at http://elnino.newscientist.com/nsplus/insight/elnino/critical.html, p 3.

63

Associated Press, ‘Egyptian Records Reveal El Ninos’, 4 February 1999, on internet at http://www.msnbc.com/news/238476.asp.

64

Fred Pearce, ‘Sunny Side Up’, New Scientist, No 2142, 11 July 1998, pp 44-48.

65

eg. see Australian Academy of Science, Report of a Committee on Climatic Change, Report

Number 21, Canberra, March 1976.

66

For a critique of climate engineering, see Ben Matthews, ‘Climate Engineering, A Critical

Review of Proposals, Their Scientific and Political Context, and Possible Impacts’, Internet

Article, found at http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e256/cleng/cleng.html, November 1996.

Page 14 Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings human actions are changing climate to what changes are to be expected and

when”.

67 The UNFCCC specifically supported the precautionary principle - where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, a lack of scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.

68 Irrespective of whether the enhanced greenhouse effect can be scientifically proven to cause climate change, there are other sound environmental reasons why attempts to limit greenhouse gas emissions should be pursued. For example limiting emissions should reduce air pollution and conserve non-renewable energy.

4. OTHER DIFFICULTIES WITH LIMITING GHG’S

For a number of reasons, limiting greenhouse gas emissions is more complicated than most other environmental issues tackled at the international level. For example, the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Delete the Ozone Layer dealt with ozone layer depletion and to some extent served as the model for the climate change negotiations. Ozone depletion, whilst an environmental problem of international concern, can be contrasted with climate change.

69 The chemicals that cause ozone depletion are limited to a short list of man-made compounds which were produced by a limited number of companies for specific purposes; whereas greenhouse gases are emitted by virtually all human activity to some degree.

70 The effects of ozone depletion were clearly negative, whereas global warming may produce positive effects for certain regions.

71 That is, it may be in some countries’ interests for the climate and rainfall to change as predicted.

72 Further, the costs of switching to less ozone-destructive technology were relatively small, whereas in many cases livelihoods and national economies are dependent on greenhouse

67

Graeme Pearman, quoted in Peter Fries, ‘Hot House Science’, Australian Financial Review,

10 November 1997, p 14. This article is contained in the appendix to this paper.

68

‘Global Warming’, United Nations Chronicle, no 2 1997, pp 12-16, p 12.

69

Edward Barbier and David Pearce, ‘Thinking Economically About Climate Change’, Energy

Policy, 18(1) Jan/Feb 1990, pp 11-18, p 16.

70

P Kay, Australia & Greenhouse Policy - A Chronology, Department of Parliamentary Library,

Background Paper No. 4, Canberra, 1997-1998, p 1.

71

Kay, pp 1-2.

72

Kay, p 2.

Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings Page 15 emissions.

73 This makes it particularly difficult to impose emission reduction targets on developing nations who may not have the resources to switch to new cleaner technology.

4.1 D ISPARATE E FFECTS

One of the main difficulties with successful negotiation of an agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions is that the environmental and economic impacts of climate change are likely to vary between countries and regions. For example the IPCC has predicted that developing countries will feel the worst effects of climate change, whereas benefits may accrue to certain Northern European countries who would experience a longer growing season. Similarly, the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are going to be much worse for a country which relies on fossil fuels for its energy production and export earnings, or has high population growth, than for a country with low population growth and which uses nuclear power.

74

It is within this background of complicating factors that the climate change negotiations have taken place.

75

5. CONCLUSION

The scientific data on climate change is changing regularly. The IPCC has been charged with the duty of providing scientific information to the international negotiations on climate change. Although not all scientists agree on the conclusions published by the IPCC, the IPCC’s 1995 report is the currently most widely accepted view of the science on climate change.

This paper has highlighted the IPCC’s findings, and outlined some of the uncertainty and scepticism expressed by parts of the scientific community. The IPCC has acknowledged that there are still many uncertainties and that climate change policy should be flexible enough to adjust to new information as it comes to light. The

73

Kay p 2. See also, John Roach, ‘What is Climate Change’, in Environmental News Network

Climate Change Special Report, Environmental News Network, 1997, on internet at http://www.enn.com/specialreports/climate/what.asp, p 4.

74

Kay, p 2.

75

The climate change negotiations are discussed in the next paper in this series From Rio to

Buenos Aires - International Negotiations on Climate Change.

Page 16 Climate Change - Scientific Background & IPCC Findings difficulty of dealing with climate change successfully is exacerbated by not only the lack of scientific certainty, but also the economic costs, and disparate effects of the problem. The lack of certainty however should not be viewed as a reason for inaction, but rather a reason to take precautions until such time when more is known. As the IPCC has pointed out, much can be done to abate greenhouse gas emissions in a manner that will have minimal costs and provide both environmental and economic benefits.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Monographs

•

Australian Academy of Science, Report of a Committee on Climatic Change,

Report Number 21, Canberra, March 1976.

•

Australian Academy of Science, Report of a Committee on Climatic Change,

Report 21, Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, March 1976.

•

Australian Greenhouse Office, The National Greenhouse Strategy,

Commonwealth of Australia, 1998.

•

Coghill K, (ed), Greenhouse What’s to Be Done?, Pluto Press, Melbourne,

1990.

•

Elliott L, The Global Politics of the Environment, Macmillan Press, Melbourne,

1998.

•

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Policymakers’ Summary of

the Potential Impacts on Climate Change, Report from Working Group II to

IPCC, AGPS, Canberra, 1990.

•

Jamieson D, Ethics and Climate Change, 1998 QUT Annual Ethics and Public

Life Lecture, QUT, Brisbane, 1998.

•

Kay P, Australia & Greenhouse Policy - A Chronology, Department of

Parliamentary Library, Background Paper No. 4, Canberra, 1997-1998.

•

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Committee, National Greenhouse Gas

Inventory 1996: With Methodology Supplements, Australian Greenhouse Office,

Canberra, October 1998.

•

Norton T and Williams O, Climate Change in Australia - Environmental,

Socioeconomic and Political Considerations, eds Centre for Resource and

Environmental Studies, ANU, Canberra, 1990.

Journal Articles

•

‘Global Warming’, United Nations Chronicle, no 2 1997, pp 12-16.

•

Barbier E and Pearce D, ‘Thinking Economically About Climate Change’,

Energy Policy, 18(1) Jan/Feb 1990, pp 11-18.

•

Betsill M, Glantz M and Crandall K, ‘Preparing for El Nino: What Role for

Forecasts?’, Environment, 39(10), December 1997, pp 6-26.


•

Enting I, ‘Greenhouse Studies: Assessing Uncertainties Versus Debunking

Hype’, Australian Physicist, 27(8) August 1990, pp 167-170.

•

Gumley W, ‘Legal and Economic Responses to Global Warming - An Australian

Perspective’, Environmental and Planning Law Journal, 14(5), October 1997, pp 341-355.

•

Hogbin G, ‘Global Warming: The Mother of All Environmental Scares’, Policy,

Autumn 1998, pp 31-37.

•

Kelly R, ‘The Potential Impacts of Climate Change’, Contemporary Australian

Speeches on Vital Issues, 1(1), March 1992, pp 7-9.

•

Lindzen R, ‘Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of Alleged Scientific

Consensus’, Environmental Backgrounder, no 10, 18 June 1992, pp 1-12.

•

McMichael A & Haines A, ‘Global Climate Change: the Potential Effects on

Health’, British Medical Journal, v 315, 27 September 1997, pp 805-809.

•

Morton O, ‘The Storm in the Machine’, New Scientist, No 2119, 31 January

1998, pp 22-27.

•

Pearce F, ‘Sunny Side Up’, New Scientist, No 2142, 11 July 1998, pp 44-48.

•

Stevens W, ‘Skeptics Are Challenging Dire ‘Greenhouse Views’, New York

Times, December 13 1989, p 1.

•

Zillman J, ‘El Nino and Australian Drought’, Focus (Academy of Technological

Sciences and Engineering), No 99, November/December 1998, pp 13-19.

Newspaper Articles

•

Cribb J, Greenhouse theory ‘still uncertain', Australian, 25 March 1995, p 10.

•

Langsam D, Message on climate over heads of decision makers, Australian

Financial Review, 27 March 1996, p 20.

•

Luff D, ‘Coup for Australia on Global Gas Limits’, Courier Mail, 12 December

1997, p 1.

•

Fries P, ‘Hot House Science’, Australian Financial Review, 10 November 1997, p 14.


Internet Articles

•

Associated Press, ‘Egyptian Records Reveal El Nino’, 4 February 1999, on internet at http://www.msnbc.com/news/238476.asp

•

Borenstein S, ‘1990’s are the Hottest 10 Years Ever Recorded’, Miami Herald,

12 January 1999, on internet at http://www.herald.com/usa/digdocs/082795.htm

•

‘1998 Was A Hot One’ CBS News, 12 January 1999, on internet at http:// http://www.cbs.com/prd1/now/template.display?p_story=106776&p_who=netw ork

•

Climate Action Network, ‘Is it Already Happening?’, Internet Article, downloaded January 1999, from http://www.igc.org/climate/Happening.html

•

CSIRO, ‘Greenhouse: Questions and Answers’, January 1999 on internet at http://www.dar.csiro.au/cc/gh_faq.htm

•

CSIRO, ‘The Greenhouse Effect - Information Sheet’, October 1996, on internet at http://www.dar.csiro.au/info/material/info98_2.htm

•

El Nino Special Report, ‘El Nino Goes Critical: What’s Happening to the

Pacific’, New Scientist, 145(1963), 4 February 1995, on internet at http://elnino.newscientist.com/nsplus/insight/elnino/critical.html.

•

IPCC, Summary for Policymakers: The Economic and Social Dimensions of

Climate Change - the IPCC Working Group III, 1995 Report, on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg3.htm.

•

IPCC, Climate Change 1995: IPCC Second Assessment Report, on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/synt.htm, p 2.

•

IPCC, Summary for Policymakers: Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts,

Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change - IPCC Working Group II, 1995

Report, on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg2.htm.

•

IPCC, Summary for Policymakers: The Science of Climate Change - IPCC

Working Group 1, 1995 Report, on internet at http://www.ipcc.ch/cc95/wg1.htm.

•

Environment Australia, A Simple Explanation of the Greenhouse Effect, Internet

Factsheet, on internet at http://www.environment.gov.au/portfolio/esd/climate/factsheet/fs_gheffect.html.

•

Matthews B, ‘Climate Engineering, A Critical Review of Proposals, Their

Scientific and Political Context, and Possible Impacts’, on internet at http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e256/cleng/cleng.html, November 1996.


•

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1996, ‘ Contribution to Total CO

2

Emissions by

Gas in Australia, 1996 (excluding land clearing)’ on internet at http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/inventory/facts/fact4.html.

•

Queensland Centre for Climate Change, ‘What is Climate Change?’, found on internet at http://www.dnr.qld.gov.au/longpdk/climatechange/index.html,

October 1998, p 1.

•

Roach J, ‘What is Climate Change’, in Environmental News Network Climate

Change Special Report, Environmental News Network, 1997, on internet at http://www.enn.com/specialreports/climate/what.asp

•

UNEP, Climate Change Information Kit, 1997, on internet at http://www.unep.ch/iuc/submenu/infokit/factcont.htm, p 5.


APPENDIX A - LIST OF ACRONYMS, TABLE OF CHEMICAL

COMPOUND ABBREVIATIONS, UNITS OF WEIGHT

List of Acronyms

AGO Australian Greenhouse Office

GHG’s

IGBP

IPCC

IUC

NGS

OECD

OPEC

QCCC

UNEP

UNFCCC

WMO

AETF

AOSIS

CCP

COP-3

COP-4

CSIRO

DFAT

EU

G77

GEF

Australian Emissions Trading Forum

Association of Small Island States

Cities for Climate Protection

Conference of the Parties (to the UNFCCC) number 3 (Kyoto)

Conference of the Parties (to the UNFCCC) number 4 (Buenos Aires)

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

European Union

Group of 77 (developing nations)

Global Environment Facility

Greenhouse gases

International Geosphere Biosphere Program

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Information Unit for Conventions

National Greenhouse Strategy

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries

Queensland Centre for Climate Change

United Nations Environment Program

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

World Meteorological Organisation

Table of Chemical Compound Abbreviations

C

2

F

6

CF

4

CH

4

CFC’s

CO

2

HCFCs

Hexafluoroethane

Tetrafluoromethane

Methane

Chlorofluorocarbons

Carbon dioxide

Hydrochloroflurocarbons

HFCs

N

2

O

NO x

NMVOCs

PFC’s

SF

6

VOCs

Hydroflurocarbons

Nitrous Oxide

Nitrogen Oxides

Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds

Perfluorocarbons

Sulphur Hexafluoride

Volatile Organic Compounds

Units of Weight

Gg gigagram (10

9 grams)


APPENDIX B - NEWS ARTICLES

Title Hot-house science.

Author FRIES, PETER

Source Australian Financial Review

Date Issue 10/11/97

Page 14

“Make no mistake,” said US President

Bill Clinton at his recent announcement to stabilise US greenhouse gas emissions,

“the threat is real.”

For his part, Prime Minister John Howard said at the last meeting of South Pacific

Forum, there was “quite a bit of debate about the science”.

Both are right, according to the vast majority of climate scientists.

Howard's belief, however, that the effects of climate change are “not all one way” is, at best, highly optimistic - particularly for his South Pacific Island audience.

As Clinton was making his announcement, the Minister for the

Environment, Robert Hill was opening the

Australian Conservation Foundation's

“Bridge to the Future” conference on greenhouse opportunities and saying that the Government's position as “founded on the appreciation that the overwhelming balance of scientific opinion confirms we are facing an environmental threat on a major scale”.

Hill also agreed with his US government counterpart, Bruce Babbitt, that climate change was “sure as the sunrise” and likely to have wide-ranging effects on

Australia.

One of Australia's foremost climate scientists, Graeme Pearman, agrees.

As head of the CSIRO Division of

Atmospheric Research, Pearman directs

60 of the CSIRO's 120 scientists engaged in climate science.

He recently chaired the Fifth International

Conference on Carbon Dioxide and summed up the meeting, saying: “Of the

200 scientists at this meeting, not one would believe that the changes we humans are forcing on our planet are without some risk.”

Citing an “explosion” of information since the last meeting four years ago,

Pearman described the significant advances tracking the cycling of carbon between land, oceans and atmosphere.

The debate, he says, has moved from one of if human actions are changing climate to what changes are to be expected and when.

The sceptics are still around, of course, including the Minister for Resources,

Warwick Parer, whose comments are markedly different from Senator Hill's.

“We are going through all this greenhouse stuff,” Senator Parer was reported to have told a mining conference in Ballarat earlier this year.

“I don't have any figures to back this up, but I think people will say in 10 years that it (greenhouse) was the Club of Rome,” he added, referring to the dire predictions of resource depletion and overpopulation made by scientists in 1967.

Copyright Provision: Copy recorded for Parliamentarians only.

Disclaimer: No responsibility is taken for any transmission errors

Yet, even noted sceptics such as Pat

Michaels, who recently visited Australia as part of the “Countdown to Kyoto” conference, admits the build-up of greenhouse gases will increase the average global temperatures - it is the predicted severity of such change he doggedly questions.

Michaels and his colleagues believe satellite data shows the Earth has recently cooled which supports their laissez-faire attitude to reducing emissions.

Not surprisingly, some resource companies have signed onto this thinking, including WMC's CEO, Hugh Morgan, who recently told a conference in Tokyo it was “a leap of faith” to believe the results of current climate models, which he maintains have not passed the experimental test.

The real debate, however, is really about sensitivity - a word that puts a number of sceptics on the edge of their seats.

“The climate just is not as sensitive to the greenhouse effect as they (climate modellers) predicted,” Michaels recently told New Scientist magazine.

Michaels and other sceptics also believe the constant “tinkering” with the models destroys the credibility of any conclusions.

Pearman and other climate modellers acknowledge large gaps in the knowledge of how the atmosphere works - including the role of clouds, smog sulphates and ozone depletion as “forcing” mechanisms that can enhance or reduce the effects of higher global temperatures.

But he steadfastly refutes the sceptics, particularly on conclusions based on data from satellites.



Pearman warns that “great care” must be used when interpreting this data.

“Satellites don't measure surface temperatures, they measure the integrated radiation between the surface and the atmosphere,” he said, adding that a detailed analysis of Michaels' criticisms would be published soon on the CSIRO web site.

Pearman does concede that predictions have been revised downward by about 30 per cent since 1990 - temperatures are now expected to rise by an average of 2 degrees Celsius and sea levels by 50cm by the year 2100 - but he maintains this revision is just good science.

Newer computer models and other biological fingerprints that include tree rings and Antarctic ice measurements, he adds, are “consistent” with the predictions of global climate change.

The heavily criticised discrepancies in the observed and predicted results of the models by sceptics has also recently been

“dramatically improved”, says Simon

Tett, a top atmospheric modeller and one of the authors of the recent

Intergovernmental Panel of Climate

Change report which concluded that humans are changing the Earth's climate.

The recently observed cooling, he said, could be traced to the effect of the ozone depletion from human-produced CFCs.

Pearman says another “fingerprint” has been found by French scientists who have compiled carbon dioxide levels over the past 400,000 years.

The research, which establishes the relationship between CO and climate over four glacial periods, is “strong evidence”

when used with other data, he says, and confirms predictions in the latest models.

In view of such evidence, Pearman says, there is no question in his mind that climate has changed in the past 100 years.

He also believes the climate will continue to change as humans near the doubling point of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from pre-industrial times.

Scientists are, in fact, loath to use the “p” word in the climate change debate, preferring to talk about “scenarios” instead of predictions.

But when it comes to regional impacts,

Pearman says current models cannot tell people in Canberra or Perth what will happen to their climate.

Scientists can only provide “scenarios that are plausible futures consistent with the physics”.

There were, he added, short-lived

“forcings” which will create different regional.

“The reality is that within these dynamic systems of ocean and atmosphere there are chaotic components that could cause periods of decades when things don't follow a nice monotonic change,” he said, adding that hydrological and coastal systems were highly sensitive to small changes in climate.

Changes in the order of one degree

Celsius, the difference in ocean temperatures that creates El Nino, would have “enormous” economic as well as environmental impacts, he said.

“It's difficult to get that message across because we all experience much bigger changes in temperature every day,”

Pearman said.

To better understand regional impacts, the

CSIRO has begun to “nest” new models within the larger climate models.

With these newer models, scientists have a resolution of about 50km which should allow them to better understand these

“dynamic systems” such as cyclones and the El Nino phenomenon.

Australia's climate, noted Pearman, was

“absolutely dominated” by the El Nino phenomenon.

“If global climate change was to shift the nature of El Nino in one phase or the other, we would have a totally different

Australia,” he said.

Noting the $3 billion cost of lost rural production during the 1982 El Nino event, Pearman said that “climate impacts are already costly”.

The leader of the CSIRO's Climate

Impact Group, Barrie Pittock, is particularly concerned with the distribution of rainfall.

The problem with climate change was not just the changes with either increased or decreased rainfall, he said, but also with the increased evaporation from increasing temperatures.

As most of Australia's rainfall comes from ocean-based evaporation, any greater warming of sea surfaces has impacts for Australia.

The newer nested models are showing different results of rainfall distribution and the news is not good.

One study in collaboration with the

Australian National University showed that under predicted increasing temperatures for northern Victoria, the

“worst case” scenario showed actual river



flows decreasing by 30 per cent up to the year 2030.

“The best case was not much change,”

Pittock said.

This and another study for the northern part of NSW has led Pittock and his colleagues to conclude that although there is still “a large uncertainty” of regional impacts, water supply and river flow are very sensitive to climate change.

In contrast to Australia's growing greenhouse gas emissions, funding for climate research, however, is receding.

Although it is internally funded under a

“no-growth” CSIRO budget of $14 million, special federal funding of $5 million a year has been cut by 20 per cent this year and will be phased out by 2000 - a situation that caught the

Environment Minister off-guard during a recent appearance on the ABC's 7.30

Report.

Pearman says this will mean a cut of $1.5

million this year to his division.

He said the funding had allowed the

CSIRO to build “from nothing” 10 years ago a computer model that was one of the best in the world and one that produced substantial spin-offs.

“We are actually understanding El Nino like we've never understood it before,” he said, adding that “forecasting El Nino is really on our doorstep”.

Although Pearman is confident we will continue to gain a much greater understanding of climate change, he is not confident humans can prevent a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

We may, he believes, be able to prevent a tripling - a point he considers very dangerous.

As such, he says, reducing emissions globally is a question of when - not if - we have to do it.



Title Message on climate over heads of decision makers.

Author LANGSAM, DAVID

Source Australian Financial Review

Date Issue 27/03/96

Page 20

With dramatic climate and industrial change in the air, DAVID LANGSAM says we do need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

(we are way behind target), carbon concentrations will not stabilise for 500 years.

ARGUABLY the world's most authoritative speaker on climate change,

Sir John Houghton, has been addressing standing-room only audiences in an under-publicised but critically important

Australia tour, detailing the science behind the demand for industry to begin a badly delayed global change of direction.

We are still pumping so much pollution into the atmosphere - primarily carbon from power plants and motor vehicles that heat that should escape from the planet is trapped, warming the Earth like the glass on a greenhouse.

At current rates, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will double by

2050, increasing temperatures by about

2.5 degrees Celsius - which can be compared with the 5-6 degree change between warm periods and ice ages.

While his audience at the Melbourne

Bureau of Meteorology last week included a sympathetic Howard

Government junior minister, Senator Ian

Campbell, and prominent policy makers,

Houghton's message has been missed by too many decision makers.

The change since pre-industrial times has been greater than at any other time in the past 10,000 years.

In fact, the Coalition Government is either ignorant of, or directly opposed to, the necessary changes to send Australian industries down the profitable path of environmental responsibility.

The seas are expanding, both from the general warming and melting glaciers and will continue to rise even if emissions stabilise.

That threatens not only 6 million coastaldwelling Bangladeshis, but St Kilda,

Bondi, Cairns and Perth.

Houghton - the chairman of the British

Royal Commission on Environmental

Pollution, a co-chairman of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, former director-general of the

UK Meteorological Office and former vice-president of the World

Meteorological Organisation - says that if all the agreements on emissions from the

1992 Rio de Janeiro UN Conference on

Environment and Development are met

With consequent rainfall changes, marginal crop regions will vanish while others increase yield, but face flooding.

The answer should be the Rio de Janeiro agreement to cap emissions at 1990 levels by 2000.

Houghton quotes the World Energy

Council, saying the technology is



available to achieve reductions - more efficient energy use can give an immediate cost-effective 30-40 per cent savings - but “energy is so cheap that nobody has a real incentive to get on with it”.

The impetus needs to come from a forward-looking government aware of the economic opportunities in driving marketleading technological change.

Environmental leadership is profitable.

When the US Clean Air Acts were introduced, American industry needed smokestack cleaning equipment and new power generating plants.

Unsurprisingly, it was Siemens of

Germany that benefited, because 20 years earlier Germany had introduced tough emission laws forcing dramatic industrial change.

The investment paid off.

Siemens Ltd's corporate communications manager, Geoff Fagan, said 10 to 15 per cent of Siemens 1994-95 DM89 billion

($80 billion) worldwide sales was

“competitive edge” products reliant on energy savings and/or waste minimisation.

Fagan said Siemens carried losses on its photovoltaic panels because when fossil fuel prices rise, solar energy will become competitive and Siemens will be the market leader.

Management Information Services Inc estimated the 1992 US expenditure on environment at US$170 billion ($220 billion) and growing three times faster than the economy, providing 25 per cent of GDP growth in that year.

Environment industries are expected to create 5 million jobs and equal US

Defence Department spending by 2000.

UK environmental expenditure was £14 billion ($30 billion) in 1990, 2.5 per cent

GDP and in line with the European Union average.

The heart of the problem is the low cost of non-renewable fuel, which former

European Union environment commissioner Ionnis Paleokrassas described as an environmental subsidy to the energy industry.

Include environmental costs and the alternatives suddenly become competitive.

A series of carrot-and-stick financial instruments and other measures are required to penalise polluters and energy wastage and reward cleaner technologies.

In the US, tradeable sulphur permits allows good performers to sell the balance of their emissions to bad performers who have to pay to pollute, rewarding cleaner companies.

Similar systems can operate for air and water quality and waste reduction.

For governments with a micron of spinal column, a carbon tax is a positive incentive to new and existing industries; raises revenue; ensures that polluters pay; and wins green votes all in one package.

But if Keating couldn't, how can

Howard?

Australia has sunshine, open space and a great deal of potential for alternative energy.

There is no reason for Australia to be an ignorant polluter, when we could be



leading the way with Germany,

Scandinavia and California.

Senator Campbell pleased the meteorologists, saying he would defend the bureau to Cabinet colleagues and that the World Meteorological Organisation was “doing good for mankind and had the support of the Coalition”.

But the sad truth is that his Government is more likely to privatise the bureau than get serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

* Sir John Houghton has been brought to

Australia by the Institute for the Study of

Christianity in an Age of Science and

Technology, funded by the British

Council, and will be in Canberra March

28-30 and Sydney March 30 to April 4.

David Langsam is a freelance journalist who specialises in environmental issues.



Title Greenhouse theory ‘still uncertain'.

Author CRIBB, JULIAN

Source Australian

Date Issue 25/03/95

Page 10

AUSTRALIA'S top science bodies say much uncertainty remains over greenhouse warming predictions despite claims by Argentinian researchers that

Antarctica's ice shelf has begun cracking up.

Current increases in global temperature cannot be linked with certainty to human action, the Australian Academy of

Science and the Australian Academy of

Technological Sciences and Engineering caution in a joint report released yesterday.

Their comments came in the wake of a report from the Argentine National

Antarctic Division which says large areas of the Larsen ice-shelf are cracking up due to warmer conditions.

The 300m-thick shelf began fragmenting a month ago - about the time British scientists reported a huge iceberg shearing off - exposing areas of sea possibly for the first time in 20,000 years.

Argentinian researchers fear that if the shelf, which insulates the continent, disintegrates, the continental ice cap itself will start to melt raising sea levels by tens of metres.

It is seen by some researchers as the first clear “proof” of greenhouse theory.

Glaciologist Dr Joe Jacka, of the

Australian Antarctic Division, said yesterday there was not yet sufficient evidence to say why the ice shelf appeared to be cracking or how serious it was.

The academies say there is clear indication that human activity will lead to a doubling - possibly a tripling of preindustrial levels of greenhouse gases in the world's atmosphere by 2100.

Calculations based on this pointed to an average rise in the earth's surface temperature of 1.5-4.5 degrees over the coming century.

The largest rises would be at the poles.

Recent studies showed the earth had warmed by between a third and two-thirds of a degree in the past 100 years.

But it was not possible to attribute this change with certainty to human intervention in the climate.

Nor could surprises be ruled out.

Australia was contributing 1.5 per cent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, and these were rising faster than for the

OECD nations as a whole.

“Australia's emissions have grown much more than those of other OECD countries, overall and per capita,” the academies say.

“A major reason for this is that some

OECD countries have reduced their fossil fuel consumption per unit of output at a faster rate than has Australia.”



The greenhouse scenario had many uncertainties, and this could only be remedied with more research to improve methods of predicting climate.

The report calls for a greater national effort to link advances in climate science to our ability to assess impacts and develop strategies to adapt to change or mitigate it.

In the meantime, policy makers will have to make decisions based on incomplete science.



CLIMATE CHANGE - WHAT DO WE KNOW? AN OUTLINE OF THE

CLIMATE CHANGE - WHAT DO WE KNOW? AN

OUTLINE OF THE SCIENCE & IPCC FINDINGS

RESEARCH BULLETIN NO 2/99

HELEN GREGORCZUK

Related documents

Products

Support

CLIMATE CHANGE - WHAT DO WE KNOW? AN OUTLINE OF THE

CLIMATE CHANGE - WHAT DO WE KNOW? AN

OUTLINE OF THE SCIENCE & IPCC FINDINGS

RESEARCH BULLETIN NO 2/99

HELEN GREGORCZUK

Related documents

Add this document to collection(s)

Add this document to saved

Suggest us how to improve StudyLib