CHAPTER 10 Local Procurement and Firm Performance: Pure-local Inputs and Semi-local Inputs Kazunobu HAYAKAWA and Tadashi ITO This chapter should be cited as: Hayakawa, K. and Ito, T., 2013. “Local Procurement and Firm Performance: Pure-local Inputs and Semi-local Inputs.” In Deepening of Corporate Global Activities in East Asia, edited by Kazunobu Hayakawa, BRC Research Report No. 12, Bangkok Research Report, IDE-JETRO, Bangkok, Thailand. Chapter 10. Local Procurement and Firm Performance: Pure-local Inputs and Semi-local Inputs Kazunobu HAYAKAWA Bangkok Research Center, Institute of Developing Economies, Thailand Tadashi ITO§ Inter-disciplinary Studies Center, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of local procurement on the performance of foreign-owned firms. Using a unique survey of Japanese overseas affiliates suitable to this end, we show that the increase of local procurement improves Japanese affiliates’ performance, but that this positive impacts are observed only in the case of procuring inputs from other Japanese affiliates in their host country, not in the case of procurement from indigenous firms. This result has important policy implications to policymaker in both investing countries and host countries. Keywords: Foreign direct investment; local procurement, firm level data; performance JEL Classification: F14 1. Introduction Policymakers encourage foreign-owned firms to procure inputs produced domestically in order to induce technology transfer. To do that, particularly in developing countries, local content requirements (LCRs) had been traditionally imposed on foreign direct investment (FDI) though LCRs are inconsistent with the national treatment obligation in Word Trade Organization. Rules of origin, particularly value-added content criterion, with which firms must comply in exporting under preferential tariff schemes, may also contribute to raising the local input share in We would like to thank Yose Rizal Damri, Dionisius Narjoko, Yoshifumi Fukunaga, and seminar participants in Centre for Strategic and International Studies for their helpful comments. § Corresponding author. Tadashi Ito, Institute of Developing Economies, Office D314, 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba, 261-8545, Japan. Email: Tadashi_Ito@ide.go.jp. Phone: 8143-299-9674. 194 foreign-owned firms. As a result, foreign-owned firms raise the share of local inputs and contribute technology transfer to indigenous firms to some extent because they sometimes need to provide trainings to indigenous input suppliers in order to raise the quality of their products. The academic literature has paid more attention to the benefits of the existence of foreign-owned firms to indigenous firms. Such positive benefits are called “spillover effects”. The survey papers include Gorg and Greenaway (2004), Crespo and Fontoura (2007), and Smeets (2008). Four paths of spillover effect are suggested in the literature: imitation, skill acquisition and proliferation, competition, and exports. Imitation is the method of raising productivity by imitating foreign-owned firms’ superior products and technology. Skill acquisition and proliferation is the route whereby the foreign-owned firm’s know-how and technology are directly transferred to indigenous firms, say, by the shift of labor from foreign-owned firms to indigenous firms. Competition is the phenomenon whereby the foreign-owned firms exert pressure on indigenous firms to use existing technology more efficiently. Exports refer to the means of raising productivity by learning information from foreign-owned firms on penetrating the export market and starting export activities. Through these various routes, indigenous firms are expected to be able to obtain positive impacts from foreign-owned firms. On the other hand, are there any benefits for foreign-owned firms from procuring inputs produced in their host countries? The foreign-owned firms may benefit through their procurement of intermediate inputs from indigenous firms, which mostly have lower input prices particularly in the case of developing host countries. However, inputs from other kinds of firms may have different impacts on firm performance. In most of the countries in the recent globalized era, there are a non-negligible number of foreign-owned firms. As is well known in the literature, foreign firms are on average the better performers than indigenous firms (e.g., Doms and Jensen, 1998 for the US; Girma et al., 2002 for the UK; Mayer and Ottaviano, 2007 for EU countries; Kimura and Kiyota, 2007 for Japan). Thus, the inputs provided by such foreign-owned firms may yield large benefits to foreign-owned firms. We call such foreign inputs “semi-local inputs”, while “pure-local inputs” refer to those provided by indigenous firms. The trade literature has long been discussing the positive effect of imported inputs on firm performance. Its main sources are the learning, variety, and quality effects through imported inputs. Firms can improve their productivity by learning from imported inputs which embody new technologies. They can also raise their productivity from imported inputs through variety effects as in product-variety models first introduced by Ethier (1979, 1982), in which the increase of imported varieties in the 195 finished good production lowers the production costs through the internal economies of scale or the “love-of-(input) variety” nature in the context of production. Quality effects improve firm productivity as in quality-ladder models first proposed by Aghion and Howitt (1992) or Grossman and Helpman (1991), in which imported inputs with higher quality have lower quality-adjusted prices and thus enable firms to reduce their production costs. There are a larger number of papers on these; Amiti and Konings (2007), Bas (2012), Goldberg, Khandelwal, Pavcnik and Topalova (2010), Halpern, Koren, and Szeidl (2005), Kasahara and Rodrigue (2008), Kugler and Verhoogen (2009), Luong (2011), Nataraj (2011), Topalova and Khandelwal (2011), Schor (2004), and Vogel and Wagner (2010). These studies show that the increase of imported inputs or the reduction of input tariff rates enhances firm productivity. Semi-local inputs seem to share some advantages with imported inputs. The inputs produced by local foreign-owned firms are usually of higher quality than those from indigenous firms. Also, the increase of input varieties by local foreign-owned firms fosters the love-of-variety effects in the production. In particular, the same-nationality obviously facilitates the learning because of the sharing of the same language and culture. Thus, for foreign-owned firms, the inputs from other local foreign-owned firms, particularly those with the same nationality may greatly improve their performance. In sum, foreign-owned firms seem to benefit from procuring local inputs, particularly semi-local inputs. In this paper, by using a unique firm level survey of Japanese FDIs in Asian countries, we empirically investigate the effect of local input sources on overseas affiliates’ performance. The survey includes the questionnaires on input procurement sources by origin country/region and the nationalities of local suppliers. With this survey, we examine whether or not the impacts on affiliate performance are different between pure-local inputs (inputs from local indigenous firms) and semi-local inputs (inputs from Japanese overseas affiliates). If we find positive impacts from pure-local inputs on foreign-owned firms’ performance, it implies that the beneficial impacts are bi-directional between foreign-owned firms and indigenous firms rather than uni-directional. What we study in this paper can be interpreted as this benefit on the side of foreign-owned firms. In addition, while the bulk of the previous studies found that a share of imported inputs is positively associated with firm performance, our study re-examines this finding in the previous studies by differentiating input sources at a more detailed-level (i.e., pure-local inputs versus semi-local inputs). The rest of this paper is organized as follows. The next section provides our empirical framework to examine the relationship between affiliate performance and 196 sources of inputs. Section 3 reports our estimation results, and Section 4 concludes. 2. Empirical Framework This section first introduces our main data source of the JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization) survey. Then, we specify estimation equations and variables to be used for analysis, in addition to showing descriptive statistics. 2.1. The JETRO Survey In order to highlight the impacts of semi-local inputs on firm performance, we examine those impacts on foreign plants’ performance, specifically performance of Japanese overseas affiliates. 1 The main data source in this paper is “Survey of Japanese-Affiliated Firms in ASEAN, India, and Oceania”, a unique confidential data set compiled by JETRO. The survey data at our hand covers three years from 2008 to 2010. In each year of this period, questionnaires were sent to around 5,000 Japanese affiliates operating in those regions, receiving more than 2,000 valid responses. Namely, this survey conducted by the semi-governmental organization, JETRO, has a sufficiently high response rate of more than 40%, despite the fact that answering to this survey is not mandatory. In 2009, for example, 1,109 were from Japanese affiliates in the manufacturing industry. Of these, 915 were from ASEAN7 countries (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Myanmar), 128 from South Asia (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka), and 66 from Oceania (Australia and New Zealand). We exclude Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand from our study because one of the focuses of our study is the distinction between Japanese overseas affiliates and local indigenous firms under the implicit assumption of lower technology level of the indigenous firms. Local indigenous firms in these three countries are very likely to have the almost same level of technology with Japanese overseas affiliates. As a result, the host countries in our sample are ASEAN developing countries in addition to South Asian countries. Particularly for ASEAN countries, Japan can be seen as a representative FDI source country because Japan is the largest investors (10.1% in net inflow values for 2008-2010) for ASEAN countries (ASEAN Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Database). 1 Another simple reason for our focus on the impacts on foreign plants’ performance is the data limitation. Namely, we do not have data that include not only foreign plants but also indigenous plants and have information on the detailed sources of inputs. 197 The JETRO survey is considered to have captured well the information of Japanese affiliates particularly in ASEAN countries. According to the “Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities” by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), there were around 2,000 Japanese manufacturing affiliates in ASEAN7 countries in 2009, meaning that the JETRO survey includes around half of Japanese affiliates in the case of ASEAN7 covered by the METI data. Furthermore, affiliates included in the JETRO survey are not qualitatively different from those included in the METI data. For example, the two groups of affiliates in ASEAN4 countries (Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines) in 2009 have almost the same mean values of employment (669 for the JETRO and 601 for the METI) and the share of exports in total sales (45% for the JETRO and 48% for the METI). The countries in this survey also well represent Japanese FDIs because this group of countries has the largest share of 25 percent of the total Japanese overseas affiliates’ numbers in the world (Basic Survey of Japanese Business Structure and Activities 2010). We make use of the information unique to this survey. This survey includes questions on procurement sources by region/country, indigenous firms/Japanese affiliates/other foreign-owned firms, etc. There are two other major firm level data on Japanese overseas affiliates’ activity. The one is “Basic Survey of Overseas Business Activity” annually compiled by METI, and the other is “Overseas Japanese Companies Data” compiled by a private company, Toyo Keizai INC. The former contains the rich information on Japanese overseas affiliates’ characteristics, such as affiliates’ sales, profit, and cost structure while the latter has a virtue of having some other information. However, these two data sets do not provide us with the detailed information on Japanese affiliates’ procurement sources. Thus, we make use of this unique feature of the JETRO survey. 2.2. Specification We estimate two models. For both models, we use the number of employees for the dependent variable. We use the number of employees as a proxy for firm performance, say, productivity. The survey does not include data on sales values, value-added, intermediate inputs costs, and capital stock. Therefore, we also could not compute value-added per worker or the total factor productivity. However, as Melitz (2003) argues theoretically and subsequent numerous studies show its empirical relevance, high productivity firms are large firms in terms of revenues, profits and number of employees. Thus, we follow suit of many other economists and use the 198 number of employees as a proxy for a representative variable of firm performance. Two models to be estimated are as follows. The first equation is: ln Employeeict = Į1 Localictí1 + Xict ȕ + İict, (1) where Employeeict is the number of employees. Subscripts i, c, and t represent Japanese overseas affiliate, country, and year, respectively. Local is a local procurement share as a whole without distinguishing its detailed sources such as indigenous firms. X is a vector of various control variables, details of which are explained below. While the above model investigates the impact of local inputs as a whole, the next model decomposes the local input share into a share of procurement from local indigenous firms and that from other Japanese overseas affiliates. Namely, ln Employeeict = Į2 Japaneseictí1 + Į3 Indigenousictí1 + Xict ȕ + İict, (2) where Japaneseictí1 represents an input procurement share from other Japanese overseas affiliates and Indigenousictí1 is an input procurement share from local indigenous firms. The sum of these two variables is not equal to a variable of Local because Local also includes input procurement from the other foreign-owned firms. However, the shares of other foreign-owned firms are negligible as is shown below. The variables for procurement shares are lagged by a year to avoid simultaneity bias. Variables in X are Export ratio and Age. Export ratio is computed as export sales value divided by total sales value of Japanese affiliate i in country c at time t. We include this variable because exporters tend to be larger firms. Age, which is the years passed since the establishment of the affiliate, is included because overseas affiliates may increase the number of employees as they learn about local suppliers. We take logs for all the dependent and independent variables except input share variables and an export ratio. Input share variables are not in log-form because we deem it appropriate to leave it in levels. For example, the difference between 0.1 and 0.2 should be treated as identical with the difference between 0.8 and 0.9. In both cases, the differences are 0.1. If it is transformed into logarithms, the difference between 0.1 and 0.2 is far larger than that between 0.8 and 0.9. There are two potential problems which may render the estimators biased. One is the reverse causality, which comes from self-selection, and the other is simultaneity bias. The first problem arises because firms with a large number of employees may opt to purchase from local suppliers. A good choice of instrumental variables (IVs) is almost always a hard task, but fortunately we have good candidates: effective exchange rates and effective tariff rates, which are calculated as the imports-weighted averages of exchange rates and tariff rates, respectively. These variables satisfy two conditions for good instrumental variables, namely they are correlated with the variable instrumented 199 and uncorrelated with the error term. Effective exchange rates are probably correlated with local input shares (the variable instrumented) because highly depreciated local currencies induce firms to shun procurement by imports and to favour local procurement. Also, high tariff rates work against imports in favour of local procurement. The second problem arises because firms may often make simultaneous decisions on employment and on procurement. To address this, we use one-period lagged local procurement for explanatory variable. 2.3. Descriptive Statistics This section shows descriptive statistics. Table 1 shows a local input share, an input share from other Japanese affiliates, and an input share from local indigenous firms for each country under study. The mean for a local input share is 51%, which is composed of 25% from Japanese FDI local affiliates and 24% from indigenous firms. The remaining 2% is supplied by other foreign-owned firms. The highest local input share is observed for Thailand, followed by Indonesia, India, and Malaysia. It appears that in general large countries in terms of GDP have higher local input shares. It also appears that countries where Japanese firms have a long history of production activity such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia tend to have higher local input shares. The local input share is decomposed into the input share from other Japanese affiliates, the input share from indigenous firms, and the input share from other foreign-owned firms. Thailand registers the highest rate again. 33% out of 59% is supplied by other Japanese affiliates and 24% is supplied by indigenous firms. The remaining 2% is supplied by other foreign-owned affiliates. === Table 1 === Table 2 shows the local input share and its decomposition as above by industry instead of by country. Paper industry and Food industry have high local input shares, 76% and 75% respectively. Precision machinery has the lowest number of 27%. Local suppliers for Paper industry and Food industry are almost all indigenous firms, while for Precision machinery industry the input share from other Japanese affiliates is much higher than that from indigenous firms. It appears that affiliates in industries which require sophisticated technology tend to procure from other Japanese affiliates. === Table 2 === 200 3. Estimation Results Table 3 shows descriptive statistics. Table 4 shows our baseline results. The columns (I) and (II) report the results of IV estimation on the above equation (1). The coefficient estimates of Local input share variable are highly significant. Specifically, the rise of a local input share by ten percent points leads to the 0.3% rise of productivity (remember that our variable of Local lies in the unit interval). This finding of positive effects of the local input share on performance is novel in the literature where only the positive effects of imports on productivity have been studied. In other words, firms can improve their performance even through lowering their import share. In the next estimation, i.e. the estimation of the above equation (2), we explore more closely the source of those positive effects of local inputs by differentiating between pure-local inputs and semi-local inputs. === Tables 3 & 4 === The results in the other variables are as follows. The control variables of Export ratio and Age both have statistically significant positive coefficient estimates as we have expected. Namely, as is well known, exporters are the better performer and/or are larger in terms of employment. The negative contribution of the export ratio to the local input share might show the complimentary effects between exporting and importing. Indeed, Aristei et al. (2011) found the positive interdependence at firm-level between those two kinds of international activities in a group of 27 Eastern European and Central Asian countries. Also, due to the more knowledge on the local market/suppliers, the older affiliates have the higher local input share and the better performance. As to the IVs, although effective exchange rates are not showing clear positive correlation with local input shares, effective tariff rates are positively correlated with local input shares. Thus, the higher tariff rates encourage firms to raise the local input share through the relative expensiveness of imported inputs. The estimation results on the above equation (2) are presented in columns (III)-(V). Here, a local input share is decomposed into an input share from other Japanese affiliates (semi-local input share) and an input share from indigenous firms (pure-local input share). In column (V), the result of IV regression shows a statistically significant positive coefficient for the input share from other Japanese affiliates while the coefficient estimate for the input share from indigenous firms is not statistically significant.Namely, the procurement from local suppliers is positively associated with 201 performance improvement but only in the case of semi-local inputs. Specifically, the rise of a local input share by ten percentage points leads to the 0.7% rise of productivity. The control variables have statistically significant coefficient estimates with expected signs. Namely, firms with the higher export ratio or the more experience of overseas activities are the better performers. There are some noteworthy results in equations for inputs from other Japanese and indigenous firms, which are reported in columns (III) and (IV). First, the export ratio is positively related to the input share from indigenous firms, but not to that from other Japanese firms. The higher export ratio in overseas affiliates implies that their motivation of FDI is low costs such as cheap labor costs in host countries. Thus, such firms may prefer cheaper inputs, which are obtainable from indigenous firms, to higher quality inputs, i.e. semi-local inputs. Second, older firms lower the input share from other Japanese firms but do not in the case of the input share from indigenous firms. This result may be a weak evidence on that the older overseas affiliates have the more knowledge on local market/suppliers. Last, the effective exchange rates have a significantly positive coefficient in the case of the input share from indigenous firms, indicating that the depreciation of local currency encourages firms to raise the input share from indigenous firms. As a robustness check, we re-estimate our models by controlling for industry characteristics. Specifically, we include labour intensity, which is a share of wage payment in value-added. Although it may differ both among countries/regions and across years, we use the labour intensity data of Thailand as a representative case of the countries in our sample since the data for each of the other countries are not available. Given that Thailand is almost in the middle of the development stage of all the sample countries, we believe that this choice is appropriate. The data necessary for this calculation are taken from the 2007 Industrial Census – Whole Kingdom by National Statistical Office, Kingdom of Thailand. Labour intensive industries are expected to hire a larger number of workers. The regression result is in Table 5. Here we focus on the case of equation (2). While there does not appear a statistically significant correlation of Labour intensity with the input share from other Japanese affiliates (III) and employment (V), a highly significant correlation can be observed for the input share from local indigenous firms (IV). The other results are qualitatively equivalent to the previous results in Table 5. As a result, we conclude that the procurement from local suppliers is positively associated with performance improvement but only in the case of semi-local inputs. 202 === Table 5 === 4. Concluding Remarks This paper examines the impacts of local procurement on the performance of foreign-owned firms. Using a unique survey of Japanese overseas affiliates suitable to this end, we find that the increase of local procurement improves Japanese affiliates’ the affiliates’ performance, but that this positive impacts are observed only in the case of procuring inputs from other Japanese affiliates in their host country, not in the case of procurement from indigenous firms. Some policy implications can be drawn from these findings. From the investing country point of view, firms’ FDIs contribute to improving not only their performance per se but also the performance of forerunner firms with the same nationality through supplying the better inputs to those firms. Thus, policymakers may facilitate further development of their firms’ ongoing overseas operation by supporting new firms’ investment abroad. From the host country point of view, on the other hand, the skill/quality upgrading of indigenous firms is crucial to raise the quality of their products to the level of foreign firms’ products. If, due to such upgrading, indigenous firms succeed in yielding positive effects for foreign firms in terms of their performance, more foreign firms will invest, resulting in larger spillover effects from foreign firms to indigenous ones. In sum, it is important for host countries to create and develop such “virtuous circle” between foreign firms and indigenous firms. 203 References Aghion, P. and Howitt, P., 1992, A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction, Econometrica, 60(2): 323-351. Amiti, Mary and Konings, Jozef, 2007, Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia, American Economic Review, 97(5): 1611–1638. 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Vogel, Alexander and Wagner, Joachim, 2010, Higher Productivity in Importing German Manufacturing Firms: Self-selection, Learning from Importing, or Both?, Review of World Economics, 145(4): 641-665. 205 Table 2. Input Shares by Country Local input Bangladesh Indonesia India Sri Lanka Myanmar Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Total 38% 50% 49% 28% 35% 49% 39% 37% 59% 30% 51% Japanese firms 4% 24% 5% 1% 0% 18% 1% 24% 33% 12% 25% Indigenous firms 34% 23% 41% 27% 35% 27% 37% 12% 24% 14% 24% Source: Survey of Japanese-Affiliated Firms in ASEAN, India, and Oceania (JETRO) 206 Table 3. Input Shares by Industry Local input Chemical Cloth Electric Ferrous metal Food Furniture General machinery Medicine Metal Non-ferrous metal Others Paper Plastic Pottery Precision machinery Rubber Textile Transport equipment Wood Total Japanese firms 14% 10% 24% 22% 7% 10% 24% 0% 34% 15% 19% 8% 37% 20% 16% 20% 35% 35% 9% 25% 45% 48% 40% 38% 75% 68% 56% 40% 52% 32% 55% 76% 57% 51% 27% 42% 59% 54% 57% 51% Indigenous firms 28% 36% 13% 15% 66% 58% 30% 40% 16% 15% 32% 68% 18% 30% 9% 19% 22% 17% 47% 24% Source: Survey of Japanese-Affiliated Firms in ASEAN, India, and Oceania (JETRO) 207 208 Obs 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 Mean 759.643 0.501 0.247 0.231 0.477 15.428 0.242 4,649 0.092 Std. Dev. 1775.418 0.316 0.273 0.269 0.392 9.944 0.114 105,514 0.068 Min 2 0.010 0 0 0 1 0.126 0 0.001 Max 32,067 1 1 1 1 52 0.497 2,590,435 0.406 Note: We introduce into estimation equations, variables of Employment, Age, Effective exchange rates, and Effective tariff rates after taking those logs. Employee Local (Share of local inputs) Indigenous (Share of inputs from indigenous firms) Japanese (Share of inputs from other Japanese firms) Export ratio Age Labor intensity Effective exchange rates Effective tariff rates Table 4. Summary Statistics for All the Variables 209 -0.089*** [0.024] 0.055*** [0.013] 0.009 [0.008] 0.063*** [0.010] YES YES 1,211 YES YES 1,211 0.936*** [0.144] 0.722*** [0.080] Equation (1) Local input Employment share (I) (II) 2.885*** [0.805] 0.016 [0.011] -0.116*** [0.021] -0.007 [0.008] 0.034*** [0.009] YES YES 1,211 0.038*** [0.011] 0.032 [0.022] 0.016* [0.009] 0.034*** [0.010] YES YES 1,211 YES YES 1,211 6.624** [2.905] -0.352 [2.461] 0.786*** [0.108] 1.453*** [0.438] Equation (2) Input share from Input share from Employment Japanese firms Indigenous firms (III) (IV) (V) We introduce year dummy and country dummy. Notes: In the parenthesis is the robust standard error. *** and ** indicate 1% and 5% significance, respectively. All independent variables are one-year lagged. Year Country Observations Effective tariff rates Effective exchange rates Age Export ratio Indigenous Japanese Local Table 4. Baseline Results 210 0.055*** [0.013] -0.097*** [0.024] 0.257*** [0.077] 0.01 [0.008] 0.056*** [0.010] YES YES 1,211 YES YES 1,211 0.646*** [0.097] 1.204*** [0.183] -3.982*** [0.568] 0.016 [0.011] -0.112*** [0.022] -0.112 [0.069] -0.008 [0.008] 0.037*** [0.009] YES YES 1,211 0.038*** [0.011] 0.021 [0.022] 0.334*** [0.071] 0.017* [0.009] 0.025** [0.010] YES YES 1,211 YES YES 1,211 7.967*** [2.662] -0.058 [2.927] 0.756*** [0.132] 1.668*** [0.396] -2.031 [1.274] Equation (2) Input share from Input share from Employment Japanese firms Indigenous firms (III) (IV) (V) We introduce year dummy and country dummy. Notes: In the parenthesis is the robust standard error. *** and ** indicate 1% and 5% significance, respectively. All independent variables are one-year lagged. Year Country Observations Effective tariff rates Effective exchange rates Labor intensity Age Export ratio Indigenous Japanese Local Equation (1) Local input Employment Share (I) (II) 4.370*** [1.086] Table 5. Robustness Check: Controlling for Labour Intensity