AEM 2010 - Spreadsheet Modeling for Management and Economics Spring 2014 Instructor: Richard Klotz E-mail: rlk99@cornell.edu Office: 310J Warren Hall Course Website: Blackboard Graduate TAs: Adrian Lopes (aal74) and Adeline Yeh (day42) Undergraduate TAs: Adam Greenbaum (ahg47), Jason Grossman (jhg275), Gabe Motola (gim9), Andrew Razman (aar229), Lawrence Murphy (lam385), Matt Henderson (mlh294) Office Hours Richard: Warren 310J, Tuesday and Thursday 2 to 3:30; or by appointment TAs: Warren 135, Check Blackboard 1 Rationale Spreadsheet skills are critical for success in upper level classes and many internships and careers. These skills include understanding basic and advanced Microsoft Excel functionalities and using Excel for quantitative analysis, problem solving and decision making. AEM 2010 will serve as a first introduction to spreadsheet modeling, transitioning from basic Excel skills to applied examples of quantitative analysis that draw on the main program areas of the Dyson School: management, international development and trade, environmental and resource economics, and food and agricultural economics. 2 Course Aims and Objectives Aims Students who finish this course will be 1) proficient in the basic capabilities of Excel and will be able to quickly understand and implement more advanced features of Excel; 2) able to implement spreadsheet modeling techniques to answer unstructured, real world problems. More generally, students will develop a new set of tools that can be used to take a quantitative approach to economic decision making. Objectives By the end of the semester, committed students will be able to: • • • • • • • • • 3 Efficiently manage and summarize large data-sets Develop charts and figures to effectively communicate quantitative data Develop functional spreadsheet models that are easily used by others Deconstruct real-world decisions into their basic components Use Excel to solve optimization problems and evaluate results Use basic forecasting techniques to predict future outcomes Use simulation to address problems involving uncertainty Support/inform business strategies and tactics using quantitative analysis Implement simple Excel macros Prerequisites I assume that students are comfortable with basic computing (managing files, word processing, etc) using Windows, or are willing to be uncomfortable as they develop computing skills over the course of the semester. AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 1 Prior experience with Excel is useful, but not required. I assume that students are comfortable with basic math. Knowledge of basic statistics is useful, but not required. 4 Books and Software The course will use two books: 1. Stewart, Kathleen. Microsoft Office Excel 2010: A Lesson Approach, Complete, 1st Edition. McGrawHill Companies, Inc., 2010. ISBN: 0077331214 2. Winston, Wayne. Microsoft Excel 2013: Data Analysis and Business Modeling, 4th Edition. Microsoft Press, 2014. ISBN: 0735669139 Stewart is a tutorial of Excel’s primary features, using simple examples. It is a good reference for learning Excel skills. We will use this book primarily in the first half of the semester. It is available as eBook through Amazon.com and Barnes and Noble (can rent). Winston demonstrates how to apply Excel to business analysis and decision making using simple, but more realistic examples. We will use this book primarily in the second half of the semester. It is also available in both print and eBook formats. There are multiple copies of both books on course reserve in Mann Library. Unfortunately, the Stewart text focuses on an older version of Excel (2010), while some of you, and the campus labs, will have a newer version (2013). However, the 2010 and 2013 versions of Excel are similar enough that the vast majority of the instructions/examples in this book will carry through to the newer version of Excel (2013). Excel Versions: Windows or Mac? You must have access to Excel 2010 or 2013 (Windows version), either on your own computer or in a lab. These versions of Excel are nearly identical for the purposes of our class, as the main differences are cosmetic. You will be tested using Excel 2013 and the course staff will support either 2010 or 2013. Excel 2010/2013 is available on most of the PCs in Mann Library and is available in many other computer labs around campus (http://mapping.cit.cornell.edu/publiclabs/map/index.cfm). Excel for Mac (2011, 2013) differs from the Windows version in a number of significant ways. These differences will make it harder, if not impossible, to complete some assignments, particularly later in the semester. As a policy, course staff are not required to answer questions pertaining to Excel for Mac, although many are Mac users and will answer your questions. Based on previous semesters, I know that the majority of you are Mac users. This obscures the fact that most computers in the US, and the world, are PCs. In July 2013, about 85% of the computers worldwide used some version of Windows. Less than 8% used Mac OSX. In the US, 75% of computers ran Windows, while only 14% ran OSx (http://gs.statcounter.com). Clearly, you are more likely to run into Excel for Windows in your future internships and jobs than Excel for Mac. Not only is Excel for Windows better, learning the Windows version now will likely benefit you in the future. 5 Course Format The overarching philosophy of this course is that the best way to learn a computer program is to use it. Therefore, students will use and explore Excel in every class, on problem sets and during a final project. Likewise, examinations will be conducted using Excel. The course is segmented into two halves that will be called loosely the skills and applied components. The skills component will take place over the first 6 weeks of the semester, and will cover Excel’s basic functionalities using simple examples relevant to AEM students. At the end of the skills component, students will have a strong grasp of Excel’s features and functionalities. In the applied component, students will use Excel to address more advanced questions related to a wide range of topics. We will also cover basic modeling terminology and concepts, along with advanced Excel functionalities where required. See the course schedule below for more details. AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 2 Class Format Each class will be divided into two parts, lecture and in-class lab. The lecture part will provide a first introduction to specific Excel skills or topics. The goal will be to motivate, describe and demonstrate the topics being covered. In-class labs Around 30 minutes of each class will be devoted to in-class lab. The lab will allow students to work through a number of examples, either individually or in groups, related to the topics introduced during the lecture. The course staff will be available to answer questions as they arise. Examples covered in lab will range in difficulty, but will generally fall into three categories: 1) Repetition of topics covered in lecture; 2) Small extensions that illustrate other applications or limitations to what was covered in lecture; 3) Challenge questions that are major extensions to what was covered in class. Solutions to the in-class lab assignments will be provided on Blackboard. Class workbooks An Excel workbook will be available for download on Blackboard before each class. The workbook will be identical to the one I am using during the lecture, so students should follow along on their own computers. It will also contain the example problems that will be used in lab. Students are required to submit their Excel workbooks to Blackboard at the end of class. This will serve three purposes: 1) It is an easy way to keep track of files from the course; 2) I will use these submissions to assess whether students are picking up the course material; and 3) I will use these submissions to reward students who attend class and participate regularly. If you miss class, it is your responsibility to work through the material in the course workbook and submit it to Blackboard. To ensure that you do not lose participation points, please submit your workbook within 3 days of the class that was missed. The course staff will occasionally check the submitted workbooks for effort and completeness, and will use this to determine a portion of your class participation grade. Due to time constraints and the difficulty of the questions, it will not always be possible to finish the entire in-class lab during class. You are not required to finish every problem before you submit your workbook at the end of class. Instead you should work diligently during class and complete as many questions as you can. At the end of class you should submit what you have completed. However, it is your responsibility to revisit the questions you did not complete outside of class. You should submit a more complete workbook to Blackboard as you finish the work. 6 Course Requirements Problem Sets There will be four problem sets over the course of the semester. The problem sets will require students to apply the skills and techniques discussed in class and explore topics not covered in class. The tentative timing of the problem sets is given below in the course schedule. Other important details relating to problem sets include: • All problem sets must be submitted through Blackboard by Friday at 10 AM the week they are due. Late or e-mailed assignments will not be accepted unless there are extenuating circumstances. • Problem sets will be graded on scale of 0 to 5. See rubric below. • Problem sets will occasionally cover topics not discussed in class. You should be prepared to consult the books or the help menus. • Suggested solutions to each problem set will be provided. I expect and encourage students to work together on problem sets. However, you must submit your own work. Copying of problems sets (ie two problem sets that are nearly identical), even by students who worked together, is not acceptable and will be punished. AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 3 Prelims There will be two prelim exams. The first prelim is scheduled at the end of the skills component of the semester, and will test basic Excel skills and concepts. The second prelim will be at the end of the applied component of the semester and will test your ability to apply spreadsheet modeling to real world problems. See the course schedule for exact dates. The prelims will use the same style of questions as the problem sets. Therefore, your understanding of the problem sets is a good indicator for whether you are prepared for the prelims. The prelims will be given during your scheduled class time, using Excel 2013. They are closed book and notes, although Excel’s help menus may be used. Other sources are strictly off limits. Prelim Review Sessions There will be evening review sessions prior to each prelim. Times and locations will be announced later. Quizzes There will be three, short, in-class quizzes over the course of the semester. These quizzes will test your understanding of the Excel and spreadsheet modeling skills discussed in class. The quizzes are closed book and notes, although Excel’s help menus may be used. Other sources are strictly off limits. See the course schedule for dates. Final Project During the final month of the semester, you will work on a final group project. The objective of the project is to allow you to take on a problem that is more “real-world” in both scale and scope. You will be assigned a group of 4 to 5 people, and given a list of tasks to complete. You may have a choice of topics.1 As a group, you are responsible for implementing efficient and effective spreadsheet modeling techniques to complete the given tasks. This contrasts sharply with the structured, narrowly focused, and small scale examples of spreadsheet models we have used in class. There are two primary learning objectives: 1) for you to become comfortable implementing spreadsheet modeling techniques to problems/questions with limited structure; 2) for you to link the range of Excel and spreadsheet modeling skills developed in this class to a single problem. A secondary learning objective is for you to begin developing techniques for managing Excel projects with multiple contributors. Background information, a data-set and a list of tasks will be provided. All projects will involve: • • • • • Analysis of large data-set Development of, and analysis using, a spreadsheet model Optimization using Solver Simulation to address model uncertainties Displaying of quantitative results Deliverables are: 1) A 10 minute PowerPoint presentation that uses graphs and tables made in Excel; 2) A spreadsheet model that is organized and labeled, and uses well formatted charts and tables that clearly illustrate the key components of your analysis; and 3) A 5 to 7 page (not including tables and figures) executive briefing that summarizes your tasks, the functionality of your spreadsheet model and key findings. Presentations will take place during the University scheduled final exam time (see course schedule below). All other project materials must be submitted prior to your presentation. Additional information will be provided when the project is assigned. Class Participation The final portion of your grade is based on participation. Your participation grade will be determined by the rubric presented below. Attendance is only one aspect of your participation grade, and along with the 1 Potential topics include: financial portfolio management, advertising, farm management, environmental regulation, product mix selection and employee scheduling. AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 4 in-class lab assignments is worth 4 points. Engagement, behavior and preparation are all worth 1 point each. These four categories total 7 points. The remaining 3 points will be assigned at my discretion. Grading Your total course grade will be out of 100 points, broken down as follows: Assignment Points Problem Sets Prelims Quizzes Final Project Participation 20 30 15 25 10 Due to potential randomness in examinations (i.e. you can have an off day, not understand a question, etc), your total exam score will be a weighted average of your two prelim scores, with the higher exam score making up a greater proportion of your grade. Specifically, your higher exam score will be worth 20 points towards your final grade, while your lower exam score will be worth 10 points. Final letter grades will be assigned according to the following scale. Pluses and minuses will be given. For example if your are on the higher end of the B range, you may receive a B+. I reserve the right to modify the grading scale to better reflect class performance. Points 90 or greater 80 to 89 70 to 79 60 to 69 below 60 Grade Range A B C D F Course Staff Responsibilities You should have high expectations of the course staff. Below is a list of responsibilities that we promise to adhere to. I am open to additions to this list that would make this course a better learning experience. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7 We We We We will will will will come to each class prepared, with an organized lesson plan and clear learning objectives grade objectively make it easy for students to find help if they seek it continually try to improve the course, and will take students’ feedback seriously Academic Integrity Students are expected to follow the Cornell University Code of Academic Integrity which is available here: http://cuinfo.cornell.edu/Academic/AIC.html. Unless otherwise noted in the syllabus or class communications, any work submitted must be the student’s own work. However, I do encourage students to study, work through problem sets, and discuss course content in groups. Discussions with your peers can be an effective learning technique. If you choose to work in groups, please ensure that the final work that you turn in is your own; copying from others is not an effective learning technique. If you do not submit your own work, whether it was copied from a classmate or obtained in some other way, you will automatically be assigned a zero on the work that was copied. Depending on the severity of the violation, the penalty for not submitting your own work could include failure of the course and disciplinary action at the University level. AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 5 8 Accommodations for Students with Disabilities In compliance with the Cornell University policy and equal access laws, I am available to discuss appropriate academic accommodations that may be required for student with disabilities. Requests for academic accommodations are to be made during the first three weeks of the semester, except for unusual circumstances, so arrangements can be made. Students are encouraged to register with Student Disability Services to verify their eligibility for appropriate accommodations. AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 6 Week Dates Table 1: Course Schedule Mon/Tues Wed/Thurs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jan 20-24 Jan 27-31 Feb 3-7 Feb 10-14 Feb 17-21 Feb 24-28 Mar 3-7 Winter Break Working with Data Advanced Formulas Lookup Functions February Break Pivot Tables & Charts Prelim #1 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Mar 10-14 Mar 17-21 Mar 24-28 Mar 31-Apr 4 Apr 7-11 Apr 14-18 Apr 21-25 Apr 28-May 2 May 5-7 Modeling Basics Solver Optimization II Forecasting II Simulation I Array Functions Prelim #2 More Macros Skills Overview, Excel Basics Formula Basics Conditional Formulas Tables and Charts Large Datasets Review Mouse-Free Excel Applied Data Tables Optimization I Smoothing & Forecasting Spring Break Simple Curve Fitting Simulation II Interfaces & Validation Basic Macros TBA Due PS#1 (7th) Quiz (Wed/Thurs) PS#2 (28th) Quiz (Wed/Thurs) PS#3 (28th) Quiz (Wed/Thurs) PS#4 (25th) Final Presentation Dates/Times: Check http://registrar.sas.cornell.edu/Sched/exams.html after enrollment period for times and locations. Project deliverables must be submitted prior to presentation AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 7 Table 2: Participation Rubric Criteria Points: 4 3 Attends all classes and submits all labs. Has few unexcused absences and submits most labs. 1 0.5 Class Engagement Actively takes notes or listens intently, asks and volunteers to answer questions on a regular basis, and is fully engaged in lab activities. Takes notes or listens intently the majority of the time, occasionally asks and volunteers to answer questions but is only partially engaged in lab activities. Does not take notes or pay attention, does not ask or answer questions and ignores lab activities. Behavior1 Never disruptive and addresses others with respect. Occasionally disruptive, but seeks to change their behavior when addressed. Frequently disruptive or inappropriate. Preparation Always caught up with course material. Attendance 1,2 Points: 1 1 Routinely absent without excuse and submits few labs. 0 Occasionally behind Consistently behind material covered in material covered in class. class. 1 Frequent texting or web browsing will harm your scores for each of these categories. 2 Please inform me if you miss class for a University approved activity, sickness, or any emergency. These days will not count against you, provided that you submit the class workbook. If you participate in a co-curricular activity that requires you to miss a number of classes, please discuss the dates you will miss with me early in the semester. I am sure that we can come to an agreement whereby you will be successful in both your co-curricular activities and this class. If I excuse you from classes for a co-curricular activity, I will hold you to a higher standard of attendance for the remaining classes. AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 8 Score Table 3: Problem Set Rubric Characteristics 5 All problems completed All answers correct Simplest possible methods always used Solution methods easy to follow Exceptional effort shown 4 All problems completed Few incorrect answers Simplest methods used for majority of questions Solution methods easy to follow Strong effort shown 3 Numerous problems incomplete Many incorrect answers Simplest methods used infrequently Solution methods sometimes difficult to follow Average effort shown 2 Most problems incomplete Large number of incorrect answers Simplest methods used infrequently Solution methods difficult to follow Weak effort shown 1 Most problems incomplete Most answers incorrect Little effort shown 0 Not submitted Answers copied from others AEM 2010 Syllabus, Updated: January 21, 2014 Page 9