ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI
Gulf Overview
Sylvain Hijazi
10 March 2008
Geographical context
Syria
Lebanon
Iraq
Iran
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Bahrain
Qatar
UAE
Oman
Total Area: 430,000 sq.km
Saudi Arabia
Population: 12.1 million
GDP: 416 B.USD
Currencies: Linked to US$
Installed Capacity: 53GW (GT 35 MW + ST 18 MW)
Transport Rail: 0 km
P2
Yemen
History of Gulf Countries (1/2)
Were under the British Military control
KUWAIT
•
•
The first country gained independence on June 19, 1961
Al-Sabah dynasty has had a close partnership with British Foreign relations and
defense since 1899
OMAN
•
•
The second country became independent on Nov.18, 1970
Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al-Said since 1970 (take over from his father)
QATAR
•
P3
Became independent on Sept.3, 1971, Al-Thani family had relations with UK since
1850
History of Gulf Countries (2/2)
BAHRAIN
•
Became independent on Aug. 15, 1971, Al-khalifa family had close relations with UK
since 1870
•
The federation formed in Dec.2, 1971 with 6 Emirates (excluding Fujairah). Fujairah
joined the federation in early 1972 (originally the idea was to create the Federation
with 9 Emirates)
The Federation members are: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras AlKhaimah and Umm Al-Quwain
UAE
•
P4
Gulf Oil & Gas Reserves
P5
Oil
Gas
GCC Interconnection – Gas Link
Completed
Under construction
• Actual Gas price 1.25$/Mbtu to 1.6$/Mbtu (still low versus other countries)
• Gas price will be increased to 3$/Mbtu in 2010
• Dolphin pipe line will start to feed by 2 bcf/d on next April 08
P6
(instead of 1.2 bcf/d actual today)
Regional policy
GCC Interconnection - Electricity Link
The interconnections are to be constructed in 3 phases and will provide 600 – 800 MW of
power to Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar & UAE.
P7
Regional policy
GCC Interconnection – Rail Link
Project realisation may come by 2015
P8
Economic situation
Macro Economic Data - Gulf Countries
(UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman & Kuwait)
COUNTRY
UAE
Area
(km 2)
Pop u l a ti o Oi l
n (M i l l i on ) Res erve
(Bi l l i on
Ba rrel s )
Oi l
Prod.
(M i l l i on
Ba rrel s
GD P Per
GD P
Ga s
Ga s
(Bi l l i o Ca p i ta
Res erve Prod.
(Tri l l i on (b cf/da y) n US D ) (US D )
M 3)
Reven u e
(Bi l l i on
US D )
Exp en d. Exp ort
(Bi l l i on (Bi l l i on
US D )
US D )
In p ort Cu rren cy
(Bi l l i on
US D )
Exc.Ra te
Vs US D
90,599
4.5
97.8
2.410
6.06
4.45
189.6
36,222
7.75
7.75
165.2
118.7
AED
3.67
695.3
0.8
0.125
0.188
0.09
0.89
16.9
21,330
3.4
3
16.1
10.9
BHD
0.38
QATAR
11,437
1
15.5
0.790
25.78
3.8
65.8
57,000
20
18
50.5
26.7
QR
3.64
OMAN
309,500
2.6
5.6
0.97
0.95
1.431
40.5
13,609
11.5
12.5
50.5
18.6
RO
0.39
17,818
3.2
101
2.490
1.56
0.84
103.4
30,188
46
37.6
63.9 32.400
KD
0.29
430,049
12.1
220.03
6 .848
34.44
11.411
416
88.6 5
78.85
346 .2 207.30
BAHRAIN
KUWAIT
Gulf
Region
P9
Bahrain
Bahrain was one of the first States in the Gulf to discover oil
The Kingdom of Bahrain is made up of 33 islands and is home to
one of the largest aluminum smelters in the world.
King: H.H. Sheikh Hamad
Bin-Isa Al-Khalifah
Capital: Manama
Population: 800,000
GNI per capita: US$ 21,330
Area: 695.3 sq km
GDP: US$ 16.9 billion
Exchange Rate: 0.38 Bahraini Dinar per US$
Oil Reserves: 0.125 billion barrels
Gas Reserves: 0.09 trillion m3
Oil Production: 0.188 million barrels per day
Gas Production: 0.89 bcf/day
Percentage Distribution of Population
TCN
26%
Exp
1%
Arabs
10%
P 10
National
63%
Kuwait
The State of Kuwait is a small, oil-rich country nestling at the top
of the Gulf, flanked by large and powerful neighbours - Saudi
Arabia to the South, Iraq to the North and Iran to the East.
Amir : H.H. Sheikh Sabah
Al-Ahmad Al-jaber Al-Sabah
Capital: Kuwait City
Population: 3.2 million
GNI per capita: US$ 30,188
Area: 17,818 sq km
GDP: US$ 103.4 billion
Exchange Rate: 0.28 Kuwaiti Dinar per US$
Oil Reserves: 101 billion barrels
Gas Reserves: trillion 1.56m3
Oil Production: 2.49 million barrels per day
Gas Production: 0.84 bcf/day
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
Exp
7%
TCN
13%
National
45%
Arabs
35%
P 11
Oman
Sultanate of Oman is a well-off country with large oil and gas
resources, a substantial trade surplus, and low inflation. Oil is
the mainstay of the economy, providing around 40% of GDP.
Sultan Qaboos bin Said
Al Said
Capital: Muscat
Population: 2.6 million
GNI per capita: US$13,609
Area: 309,500 sq km
GDP: US$ 40.5 billion
Exchange Rate: 0.39 Riyal per US$
Oil Reserves: 5.6 billion barrels
Gas Reserves: 0.95 trillion m3
Oil Production: 0.97 million barrels per day
Gas Production: 1.431 bcf/day
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
Exp
1%
Arabs
3%
P 12
TCN
15%
National
81%
Qatar
The State of Qatar has developed from being one of the poorest
Gulf States to become one of the richest. Natural Gas reserves 3rd
RASGAS QATARGAS
largest in the world.
(Contracted LNG exports million tonnes a year)
90
Capital: Doha
80
Population: 1 million
60
70
50
Area: 11,437 sq km
40
30
GNI per capita:US$ 57,000
Emir: H.H. Sheikh
Hamad Bin-Khalifah
Al Thani
20
10
GDP: US$ 65.8 billion
Exchange Rate: 1 Q Riyal
0
= 3.64 per US$
Oil Reserves: 15.5 billion barrels
Oil Production : 0.790 million barrels per day
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
TCN
41%
Gas Production: 3.8 bcf/day
Gas Reserves: 25.78 trillion m3
National
15%
Exp
12%
Arabs
32%
P 13
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
A federation of seven emirates formed in 1971: Abu Dhabi,
Dubai, Ajman, Fujairah, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm Al
Quwain. The UAE is governed by a Supreme Council of Rulers of
each of the emirates and presided by Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al
Nahyan (Ruler of Abu Dhabi).
Capital: Abu Dhabi
Population: 4.5 million
GNI per capita: US$ 36,222
Area: 90,599 sq km
GDP : US$ 189.6 billion
Exchange Rate: Dirhams 3.671 per US$
President H.H. Shaikh
Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Oil Reserves: 97.8 billion barrels
Gas Reserves: 6.06 trillion m3
Oil Production: 2.4 million barrels per day
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
National
14%
TCN
65%
Gas Production: 4.4 bcf/d
Exp
5%
P 14
Arabs
16%
UAE
UAE: Federation of 7 Emirates
EMIRATE
P 15
RULER
ABU DHABI
H.H.Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan
DUBAI
H.H.Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum
SHARJAH
H.H.Dr.Shaikh Sultan Bin Mohammed Al Qassimi
AJMAN
H.H.Shaikh Humaid Bin Rashid Al Nuaimi
FUJAIRAH
H.H.Shaikh Hamad Bin Mohammed Al Sharqi
RAS AL
KHAIMAH
H.H.Shaikh Saqr Bin Mohammed Al Qassimi
UMM AL
QUWAIN
H.H.Shaikh Rashid Bin Ahmed Al Moalla
Economic Context
Gulf
Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure
High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas
Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years)
High Market Potential for Alstom
P 16
Dubai - Sheikh Zayed Road Development 1990-2010
Sheikh Zayed Road
1990
2003
Burj Dubai Project
2007: Under Construction
P 17
Completion by March 2010
Dubai – Building its Biggest and Prominent Projects
The World
Dubai Marina
P 18
Jumeirah Lakes
The Palm-Jumeirah
Economic Context – High Growth on Building & Infrastructure
P 19
Dubai Emirate
Registered Vehicles in Dubai Emirate
1400
1150
# of Veh. (in 1000s)
1200
# of Veh. (in 1000s)
780
1000
568
800
491
600
400
199
213
1995
1996
236
266
294
321
1999
2000
354
389
421
2002
2003
200
0
1997
1998
2001
Year
Source: RTA - Dubai
P 20
2004
2005
2006
2007
Dubai Rail Projects - Phase Construction
Americ
an
Univ.
Red Line
Extension
Al Sufouh
Tram
Union
Square
Red Line
Original
Green Line
Blue Line
Extension
Burj
Dubai
Tram
Purple Line
Green Line
Extension
Motor city
Tram
Rashidiya
Depot
Blue Line
Red Line (From Rashidiya to University)
112 km
36 stations
Green Line (From Abu Heil to Al Ras)
17 km
19 stations
Purple Line : - From Dubai Airport to Jebel Ali International Airport
47 km
- Future Extension to Water Front
Blue Line (From Dubai Airport to Jebel Ali International Airport)
P 21
35 km
90 km
15 stations
4 Stations
13 stations
Rail Projects – Abu Dhabi
P 22
Abu Dhabi - Prominent Projects
SARAYAH IN ABU DHABI
P 23
Growth in GCC Countries
PEARL QATAR
THE BLUE CITY OMAN
P 24
BARR AL JISSAH ISLAND
Growth in GCC Countries
TALA ISLAND BAHRAIN FINANCIAL HARBOUR
SILK CITY IN KUWAIT
THE RAPID GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF REGION EQUATES TO A GREATER DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY IN THE FUTURE.
P 25
Economic Context
Gulf
Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure
High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas
Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years)
P 26
High pressure to produce more Oil
MB/d
2004
2010
2020
2030
World Demand
82,1
92,5
104,9
115,4
World Offer
82,1
92,5
104,9
115,4
OPEC Middle East
22,8
26,6
35,3
44,0
+ > 50%
Arab world holds 60% world oil reserves & 35% of Gas reserves
Source: World Energy Outlook
P 27
Oil Production
* Oil demand in 2008 will average 88 Million bpd
Source: EIA / CIA)
P 28
Gas Production
P 29
Economic Context
Gulf
Continuous high growth on Buildings & Infrastructure
High pressure to produce more Oil & Gas
Shift of Aluminium production to the Gulf (over 4 MT/Y to be built over the coming 12 years)
P 30
Global Aluminium Production Shift
1980 (16 Mt)
Others ,
19%
2006 (33.9 Mt)
Europe,
22%
Others ,
21%
2020 (57.5 Mt)
Europe,
12%
USA,
7%
China,
2%
Middle
East,
10%
Canada,
7%
Canada,
9%
Middle
East,
1%
USA,
30%
China,
27%
Former
USSR,
12%
Australi
a, 6%
Middle East
Mainly Gulf Production 1.7 MT/Y
China,
25%
Australia
, 4%
Former
USSR,
20%
Middle East
Mainly Gulf Production ≈ 5.7 MT/Y
Over of 4 MT/Y Production to be installed in the Gulf
P 31
USA,
5%
Middle
East,
6%
Former
USSR,
17%
Australi
a, 2%
Canada
, 7%
Others ,
23%
Europe,
8%
Alstom Presence in the Gulf
SHARJAH – IN / GPS / Transport
20 Persons
•
•
•
6 persons International Network/GPS
13 persons Power Systems
1 person Transport
ALSTOM Power Service
140 Persons
•
•
Main office & workshop at Jebel Ali Free Zone (Dubai)
Branch offices at Abu Dhabi, Bahrain & Iran
Total 160 Persons
P 32
Major Recent References
BAHRAIN
•
•
•
MEW – Hidd I & II 1000 MW (5 x GT13E2 + 1 x 300 MW ST + 3 HRSG) – Completed
MEW – Riffa Phase II – Upgrade 6 GT13ED to DM/EV Burners – Under realization
ALBA – PS4 650 MW (3 x GT13E2 + 2 x 150 MW ST + 4 HRSG) – Completed
KUWAIT
•
MEW – Al-Zour South 800 MW (5 x GT13E2 ) – Under realization
OMAN
•
Sohal – Alum.Smelter 1000 MW (4 x GT13E2 + 2 x 200 MW ST + 4 HRSG) – Completed
QATAR
•
QEWC – Ras Abu Fontas B + B1 1025 MW (8 x GT13E2) – Completed
UAE
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
P 33
DUBAL – Condor & Kestrel Add On ( 3 x 125 MW ST+ 6 HRSG behind 6 GT 9E) – Completed
DUBAL – Kestrel II 450 MW (2 x GT13E2 + 1 ST 125 MW + 2 HRSG) Completed
DUBAL – GTX 150 MW (1 x GT13E2 + 1 HRSG) – Under realization
DUBAL – Modernization of Kiln 1 to 5 (Fume Treatment) – Completed
DUBAL – Fume Treatment Plant for Potlines 7B, 9B and 5B & 6B – Under realization
EMAL – Fume Treatment & Flue Gas Desulphurization Plant – Under realization
ADWEA – Fujairah II – 2000 MW ( 5 x GT26 + 3 ST 220 MW + 5 HRSG) - Under realization
Order Intake year 2007/08: Over 1.5 Bn€
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Surplus cash / Liquidity (High Revenue)
Growing Economy & high demographic growth
High oil and gas reserves
Low cost of Energy
No corporate Tax or Individual Tax
Low custom Duties (4%)
Low cost of manpower (open market)
Pre-planned ruling family succession / favorable Political Situation by
comparison to region (American military base in Bahrain & Qatar)
Safe place to live / moderate social setting
Attraction for more Investors in Industrial/ Petrochemical/Oil & Gas/
Aluminum Industries and Regional Hub for International Companies
GULF remains WORLD’s fastest
growing area in POWER
DEMAND Per Capita
P 34
GULF becomes an increasing
market for Rail Transport
www.alstom.com