Climate Change Impact on I d Indonesian i Cocoa C Production P d ti and Strategies for Adaptation Presented at 21st Partnership Meeting & Roundtable Sessions of World Cocoa Foundation, Washington, 1313-14 June 2012 1) DIDIEK H. GOENADI , TEGUH WAHYUDI 1) 2) 2) 2) & JOHN BAKO BAON PT Riset Perkebunan Nusantara, Jl. Salak 1A, Bogor, Indonesia Indonesian Indonesia n Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute Institute,, Jl. P.B. Sudirman 90, Jember, Jember, Indonesia CLIMATE FAC FACTOR TORS S Light Intensity Air Humidity Air Temperature R i f ll Rainfall COCOA FARMS Wi d Wind CLIMATE Sunlight Wind Rainfall ORGANISMS Shade Weed Animal Microbe LAND LAND Soil Water Slope Cocoa Crop < Climate play important role * Climate & weather faktor: main risk < Susceptible to long dry season and heavy rainfall < Distribution: Di t ib ti determined d t i d by b climate li t factors f t < Productivity: effects of ecoclimate factors Climate change < Very important issue * impacts on lives Main cause of climate change: g < Glasshouse gas increase in atmosphere Climate change phenomena < Excessive long dry season or rainfall * will be more frequent in Indonesia. < Climate change happen? * drought, flood, landslide & pests Aims < Cocoa production development in last years < Show indication of climate change < Strategy of adaptation and to climate change Data collected from plantations of PTP Nusantara XII based on variation of climate and rainfall: 1. Bulk cocoa farm, Kalisepanjang (Banyuwangi) 2 Fine flavor cocoa farm 2. farm, Kalirejo (Banyuwangi). (Banyuwangi) When long dry season 1 EFFECTS ON NURSERY: 1. No/less effect Locations closed to water sources 2. EFFECTS ON YOUNG TREES < Generally susceptible to drought < Many dead trees, especially on less-prepared farms. Fund and time loss in replanting 3. EFFECTS ON PRODUCTIVE TREES < Cocoa production decrease at the year of long dry season < Damage level: lower in wet climate (rainfall type A or B: Schmidt-Ferguson classification) than in dry climate (rainfall type C or D) When excessive rainfall and its period 1. Effects on soil: * Erosion * Landslide * Top soil depth decrease 2 Effect on flowering 2. - No effect on cocoa flowering and fruiting 3. Effect on p pest and disease development p - Cocoa pod rot - Stem canker - VSD 4 Effect 4. Eff t on b bean d drying i - High seed water content Longer time for drying Mo ld beans Mouldy Extra energy needed MAIN PRINCIPLES Soil water management SHORT TERM Environment preparation Plant strengthening When long dry season Cocoa seedlings in nursery • Location close to water sources • Living shade: close, dense • Enough NPK fertilized • Mulch l h in polybag. l b • Cancel if less preparation For crop in fields Short term: Shade management Soil tillage g Fertilizing Crop protection g g Watering/irrigation Sca 12 Long term • Superior clones tolerant to drought • Rain water harvest • Establish cool farm environment • Climate monitoring and d response to t climate change When excessive rainfall - Protect soil resource - Shade management - Pest-disease control - Simple Si l solar l drying d i (use plastic sheets) When normal condition Use leguminous shade trees Apply enough organic matter When normal condition Apply soil conservation Fertilizing Carbon emission reduction 2012 > 2011 > 2010 2010: too much rain 2011: first year harvest was still affected by 2010 condition 2012: strong wind affect certain central cocoa production areas COCOA BREEDING: - Screening of cocoa genotypes tolerant to drought stress - Promising clones tolerant pod rot (Phytophthora palmivora) CROP PROTECTION: 1. Biodegradable Coating to control: - Pod rot - Cocoa pod borer - Helopeltis 2 Epiphytic weeds (Drimoglosum phylloseloides) 2. SOIL AND AGROCLIMATE: y and monitor 1. Climate analysis 2. Water harvest 3. Mycorrhizal fungi AGRONOMY: - Cocoa diversification with rubber and cover crops p POST HARVEST TECHNOLOGY: 1. Mechanical drying unit 2. Solar drying y g unit (with ( solar unit collector)) 3. Drying unit with biogas 1. Climate change was noted in Indonesian cocoa farmers after 2006, excessive rainfall and its period happened in 2010. 2. Cocoa production in 2010 was less than 2009 as affected by wet climate change Cocoa production change. p od ction in 2011 and 2012 will ill be less than 2010 due d e to very humid condition of cocoa farms which support pest and disease infestation. 3. Strategies for adaptation and anticipation to climate change in 2012 should be taken to reduce potential yield loss as results of excessive rainfall or drought. 4. Some specific initiatives, projects, researches related with adaptation and anticipation to climate change have been set up by ICCRI. Good governance Economic freedom f d Investments in i people l Why Green Prosperity? • 17% of the world’s fauna species across only 1.3% of the world'ss landmass the world landmass • 50% of all the world's fish species live in Indonesia’s marine and freshwater systems But environmental degradation But environmental degradation costs the Indonesian economy over 5 percent of GDP per year The Green Prosperity Project Aims to increase economic productivity by expanding renewable energy use and improving management of natural resources 1) Participatory Land Use Planning ($25M) 2) Project Identification and Development ($50M) ‐ Project Preparation Facility l 3) Project Funding and Implementation ($242.5M) ‐ Investment Facilityy 4) Green Knowledge ($15M) ‐ Science and technology centers of excellence ‐ Educating communities for sustainable investments Educating communities for sustainable investments Map of Indonesia showing GP Provinces p g GP Initial Phase Candidate Provinces GP Facility Potential Investments • Hydropower (<10 MW), on- and off-grid • Other Renewable Energy • Solar; HH biogas p production • Biowaste-to-energy (e.g. palm oil mill methane capture) • Smallholder agriculture intensification programs; related certification programs • Watershed management ; community forestry programs Investment Criteria Mi i Minimum criteria includes it i i l d S t i bl L d U P j t h ld Sustainable Land Use Projects should • 10% economic rate of return • • Improved environmental stewardship and contribute, directly or indirectly, d t ib t di tl i di tl to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Support GOI’s low carbon development goals • Incorporate smallholder focus as a priority pp p g Appropriate safeguard measures to prevent or minimize adverse or unintended environmental and social impacts Equal access to project benefits for women and other marginalized d h i li d groups. • Include private sector with match/leverage of private sector match/leverage of private sector funds and clear market link; • Utilize local partners in design and implementation (with specific partners identified); partners identified); • Include demonstrated experience of project implementers, capacity to sub‐contract and procure key i inputs t • • Next Steps p Key Milestones Stakeholder Forum in Jakarta MCA Indonesia CEO and GP Project Director and other key MCA‐Indonesia CEO and GP Project Director and other key team members in place Targets July 2012 July, Sept 2012 July, Sept 2012 Sector Sector specific selection criteria and economic specific selection criteria and economic modeling/guidance finalized Nov Nov 2012 2012 Long list of potential (specific) projects developed Long list of potential (specific) projects developed Dec 2012 Dec 2012 Pre‐feasability studies and other project development and preparatory work for “short preparatory work for short list list” of starter (initial)projects of starter (initial)projects Jan – April 2013 Launch of GP Finance Facility and release of operations manual May 2013 and other process requirements and other process requirements 5‐year project implementation 2013 ‐ 2017 Resilient Farming g Systems for Sustainable Cocoa Production: Lessons from the Coffee Sector Bambi Semroc Senior Director, Food, Agriculture & Freshwater Photo 1 4.2” x 10.31” Position x: 4.36”, y: .18” Photo 2 5.51” x 10.31” Position x: 8.53”, y: .18” Agriculture Trends Population Growth To feed a world population expected to surpass 9 billion in 2050, it is estimated that agricultural output will have to increase by 70% (World Food Summit 2009). The combined effects of climate change change, land degradation, cropland losses, water scarcity and pest infestations may cause projected yields to be 5 5–25% 25% short of demand by 2050 (UNEP 2009). Photo 1 4.2” x 10.31” Position x: 8.74”, y: .18” Climate Change g and Agriculture g Climate-resilient Cli t ili t g Agriculture Photo 1 4.2” x 10.31” Position x: 8.74”, y: .18” • Builds resilience to climate change impacts p • Mitigates greenhouse gas emissions • Improves livelihoods of rural communities and drives economic development Climate Cli t Ch Change Vulnerabilityy & Agriculture g Exposure: changes in temperature and precipitation in key y sourcing g areas Sensitivity: vulnerability of crops and livestock to drought, pests and diseases; and impacts of extreme weather events on supply chain infrastructure, transport and storage systems Adaptive Capacity: ability of farmers, processors, traders manufacturers and retailers to shift to traders, alternative sources of products and livelihoods Photo 1 4.2” x 10.31” Position x: 8.74”, y: .18” Climate Change g Impacts p on Coffee Gradual Changes - Temperature - Precipitation Heat/Wind/Water Stress Pests in New Areas Changes due to Extreme Events - Droughts - Floods Water Stress Loss of coffee trees & soil Changes to Wet/Dry Seasons Problems with fruiting, o e g, d drying y g flowering, Coffee and Climate Change Si Sierra Madre M d de d Chiapas, Chi Mexico M i Models predict that by 2030 we will see a: 2.1-2.2°increase in average temperatures. 80-85mm reduction in rainfall. Reduction in suitable land for Arabica coffee production from current level of 265,400 ha to 60,500 ha by 2030. Areas eas at 600m 600 in altitude a t tude will no o longer o ge be suitable su tab e for o co coffee ee (equivalent area will be 850-900m). Current Coffee Suitability Projected Coffee Suitability Climate Change Strategy Sierra Madre de Chiapas • St Strengthen th the th adaptive d ti capacity it off coffee farmers and other stakeholders to manage risks and reduce vulnerabilities to climate change. change • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. • Identify alternative financial mechanisms. • Enact public policies and legislation at all levels to support resilient farming systems and supply chains. • Implement the strategy and measure results. Coffee and Climate Change Northern Sumatra C ff S it bilit Coffee Suitability high low Coffee and Climate Change Northern Sumatra Change in range for key pests and diseases Vulnerability Overview for Northern Sumatra Climate-Related Exposure Farmer Feedback Historical Climate Data Projections Cyclones/Storms - - - Frost - - - Seasonality Changes √ √ √ Higher Temperatures √ - √ Higher Rainfall √ √ √ Drought/Fire Risk - - - Pest/Disease √ √ ? Lessons Learned • Smallholders are the most vulnerable. • Combination of adaptation p approaches pp may be necessary in the most vulnerable regions. • Shade can buffer some impacts, but some producers already have dense shade. shade • Vulnerability assessments should be by producers producers. Photo 1 4.2” x 10.31” Position x: 8.74”, y: .18” • Effective adaptation strategies require a participatory approach approach. Thank You! Acknowledgments Goetz Schroth Monica Morales Terry Hills Fazrin Rahmadani Saodah Lubis University of North Sumatra CIAT Ecosur Starbucks Coffee Company Cacao +20: Thoughts on climate change Howard-Yana Shapiro, PhD Global Staff Officer Plant Science and External Research Mars, Incorporated Adjunct Professor of Plant Sciences, UC Davis 56 13 June 2012 World Cocoa Foundation, Washington, DC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Promote and Disperse Climate Friendly Tech Grade D Promote Sustainable Land M Management t C Prepare for the Impacts of Cli t Ch Climate Change C Advance Climate Research and Policy Analysis A Establish a Diplomatic Process A 57 A=accomplished F=failure to act appropriately Convention on Biological Diversity Reduce the Rate of Biodiversity Loss Grade F Develop Biodiversity Targets D Protect Ecosystems C Share Gene Windfall E Provide Funding F R Regulate l t Genetically G ti ll Modified M difi d A Organisms 58 Report cards adapted from Nature, 7 June 2012 Cacao 1992 - 2012 Develop and Disperse High Yielding Planting Material Develop Water Use Efficiency Cultivars Develop Nutrient Use Efficiency Cultivars Develop Climatic Adaptation in New Cultivars Develop Pest and Disease Resistant C lti Cultivars Develop Cacao Specific Fertilizers and Distribution Systems Collaborate Internationally on Needed Scientific Advances Utilize the Cacao Genome 59 Grade E F F F D D E C What is climate change and how does it really affect us? In a time of complex climate change g globally, g y does cacao as a internationally produced and traded commodity have a strong future? 60 Outline Part 1: Earth’s energy balance and the greenhouse effect Part 2: Human (anthropogenic) changes to our atmosphere and the greenhouse effect Part 3: Temperature changes since 1750 and their causes Part 4: What do we expect for the future of cacao? 61 Two temperature notes 1 °C = 1.8 °F Temp (°F) = 1.8 1 8 × Temp (°C) + 32 °F Earth’s Energy gy Balance Climate = The average behavior of the atmosphere • Includes temperatures, rainfall frequency and amounts, flooding, g etc. Weather = The current behavior of the atmosphere “Climate is what y you expect p and weather is what y you get” • The Earth’s climate – Depends on the energy balance (energy in and out) – There are many components that affect climate • Sun,, atmosphere, p , oceans,, land,, plants, p , ice and snow… 62 Earth’s Energy Balance: A Simple p View The input (solar radiation) • Some of incoming sunlight is reflected by the atmosphere and Earth’s surface • Much of incoming sunlight is absorbed by the Earth and warms it The output (Earth (Earth’s s radiation) • The sunlight-warmed Earth emits longwave, terrestrial radiation The result • Earth’s global, annual average temperature is ~ 59 ˚F Earth s temperature & climate • Perturbing any part of this system alters Earth’s • These perturbations are referred to as “radiative forcings” 63 Energy Balance: The Greenhouse Effect • The Greenhouse Effect is an important part of the Earth’s Earth s energy balance The sun emits shortwavelength radiation The Earth emits long-wavelength radiation Earth’s atmosphere is mostly transparent to short (solar) radiation, but traps long (terrestrial) radiation • • • • Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in our atmosphere absorb terrestrial radiation The GHGs then re-emit the energy in all directions, including back to Earth Absorption off this energy by Earth makes temperature warmer (59 ( ˚F ˚ vs. 0 ˚F) ˚ ) This64is the Greenhouse Effect. We all prefer 59 ˚F. So what’s the problem? Humans are Increasing g Greenhouse Warming • A natural greenhouse effect has existed for billions of years. • However, anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are causing more absorption in the atmosphere. – We are “closing” closing the atmospheric window that allows longwave radiation to escape to space – This is causing additional greenhouse warming above the “natural” natural amount • Major Greenhouse Gases – Water vapor, H2O – Carbon C b di dioxide, id CO2 – Methane, CH4 – Ozone, O3 – Halocarbons – Nitrous oxide, N2O 65 Relative Importance of GHGs and Other Forcings RF = Radiative Forcing (perturbation to Earth’s energy b l + RF = warming) i ) balance: Figure shows how radiative forcings have changed from 1750 to the present LOSU = Level of Scientific Understanding CO causes 2 most of warming Human emissions of particles cool climate overall Overall anthropogenic effect is warming Changes in p sun’s output have been small 66 ← Cooling | Warming → Associated Changes in Climate • Temperature – Increase of ~ 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) over past 150 years – Warmer now than in last 1000 yrs – Rate of warming since ~ 1900 is fastest in last 10,000 years • Other changes include – Warming oceans & rising sea levels – Decreased snow and ice amounts – More extreme weather (heat, rain, drought, hurricanes) – Warming & thawing of permafrost • Current IPCC assessment – Warming of the climate system is unequivocal 67 Annual Temperature 196419642002 Annual Temperatures for Southern Ivory Coast Cacao Production Systems 82.0 81.5 81 0 81.0 80.0 y = 0.0491x + 78.907 79.5 CDI_Anu Linear (CDI_Anu) 79.0 78.5 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 19 80 19 78 19 76 19 74 19 72 19 70 19 68 68 19 66 78.0 19 64 Degrees s, F 80.5 Ivory Coast Rainfall 1964 – 2002 Annual Rainfall for Southern Ivory Coast Cacao Production Systems 80.0 y = -0.4339x + 62.484 75.0 Annual Linear (Annual) 70.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 19 80 19 78 19 76 19 74 19 72 19 70 19 68 69 19 66 40.0 19 64 Rainfall, Inches 65.0 Predictions of Global Mean Temperature • Greater GHG emissions greater GHG concentrations more warming • In all emissions scenarios there is more warming in next 100 years compared to last 100 years • L Low scenario i (B1): Expect warming of ~ 1 8°C 1.8 C (3.2 (3 2 °F) F) • High scenario (A2): Expect warming of ~ 3.6 70 °F) °C (6.5 Models of Climate Change g To predict the response of a crop to climate change, we need d a model d l off some sort. t I am nott a proponentt off any modeling approach in particular; they all have strengths and weaknesses. Rather I would take a practical p approach and start with what’s readily available; look at initial results, determine the weak points in the analysis, and then, then if necessary necessary, refine the model (or data used) and improve. I find fi d it useful f l to t distinguish di ti i h ttwo main i classes l off models d l in this field: correlative (statistical) models and mechanistic models models. 71 Statistical Statistical models combine observations of the current distribution of a crop, and sometimes yield (the response variables), with other geographical (environmental) data (the predictor variables) variables). Many different algorithms are used, but machine learning tools (such as “maximum entropy”, “boosted regression trees”, and “random forest” methods) are considered the most powerful for this type of application application. The fitted statistical model can be used to predict a crop’s maximal geographical distribution (and yield) under current and future climates. The extremes of a crop’s crop s distribution are often well defined by temperature and/or precipitation limits, and can thus be modeled relatively easy. The distribution within the suitable “climate envelope” is more challenging, as this will depend on other environmental factors (e.g., soils, irrigation, ...) as well as on economical, political, and historical factors. 72 Mechanistic Models Mechanistic crop simulation models mimic crop growth based on detailed system analysis of the processes involved. The processes (photosynthesis partitioning of assimilates, (photosynthesis, assimilates etc) are studied independently and then combined into a single model. This has proven to be useful in research settings, e.g. to look at new management practices practices, the benefit of a new variety in different places, and also for climate change effects. A disadvantage of a mechanistic model is that, because of its generality, it cannot predict important differences in crop distribution that are caused by non nonenvironmental factors, whereas a statistical model can do this more easily. Developing such a model is a complicated and long term endeavor endeavor, particularly for a tree crop. However, simple “reduced form” mechanistic models can also be developed. 73 Predicted Warming is Spatially Heterogeneous • In all scenarios, land warms more than oceans 74 Predicted Increase in Temperature (°C) • Warming over the next ~ 20 years is relatively insensitive to emissions b emissions, butt warming by 2100 is sensitive to emissions. 37 % Approximately a third comes from ‘local’ sources % of rainfall derived from ‘short cycle’ terrestrial origins(recalculated from Basilovich et al.) 58 % 30 % 68 % Ellison D, Futter MN, Bishop K, 2011.On the forest cover–water yield debate: from demandto supply-side thinking. Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.13652486.2011.02589.x 42 % 40 % 22 46 41 % % % 1) Mackenzie river basin, 2) Mississippi river basin, 3) Amazon river basin, 4) West Afri75 ca, 5) Baltics, 6) Tibet, 7) Siberia, 8) GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment) and 9) Huaihe river basin. What Must/Should/Can Be Done? Reduce greenhouse gas levels – – – – Includes reductions in emissions as well as sequestration/geo-engineering Climate will not stabilize unless emissions are reduced below current levels The lower emissions can be reduced, the less climate will be altered However, even if we could stop all emissions now, we are committed to a relatively small amount additional warming because of our past emissions – IPCC: “Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.” Adapt to changes in climate – Adaptations can be technological), behavioral (e.g., food choices), managerial (e.g., altered farming practices), – Rich societies will be better able to adapt than poor societies or natural ecosystems t – Societies will not be able to adapt to all climate changes, especially in the longer term where changes will be larger – Vulnerability is exacerbated by other stressors (e (e.g., g poverty poverty, pollution pollution, disease disease, conflict) 76 We Know How to Increase Yields 3x Potential Impact Cocoa Farm Productivity Increases (Gains in Kg/Ha) South Asia: Increasing Cereal Yields, Decreasing Poverty 1600 New Productivity – 1521 Kg/Ha 1400 351 1200 >3X Sub-Saharan Africa: Flat Cereal Yields, Persistent Poverty Cocoa Yie eld (Kg / Ha) 1000 585 800 600 135 400 200 450 0 Current Knowledge / Pest Control Plant Material Fertilizer Note: Poverty level defined as income of $1/day/person S Source: World W ld D Development l tR Reportt 2008 2008; C. C P Peter t Timmer, Ti “A i lt “Agriculture and dP Pro-Poor P Growth“, G th“ Syngenta Foundation 77 Do We Use the Best Science Available to Determine Where to Grow Cacao U de sta d g Understanding Climate Change? Here’s a Data Set. 78 Processing the data 79 Parameter Specification Precipitation Annual mean Driest month Driest quarter Seasonality Annual Coldest quarter Temperature Radiation Soil Annual Driest quarter Type Ph. Ph Base Saturation Organic carbon 80 Minimum Maximum 1403 18 168 45 24 22 1800630 386376 Acrisol (Major) Ferrasol/Cambisol (minor) Units 1789 Millimeters 37 102 81 26 Degree Celsius 24 Watts per 1881450 meter square 410422 81 Resolution 30m x 30m Based on 280 (56 x 5) ground truthed cocoa locations Maximum likelihood classifier spectral landcover reflectance probability A Few ConfusingTerms Science (noun) – to know, know knowledge Scaling up – to bring more benefits, to more people, more quickly and more lastingly 82 Call To Action Scaling of the productivity model for all cocoa producers Access to improved germplasm, micro-credit cocoa micro-credit, appropriate fertilizers Understand weather volatility National institutional capacity building 83 To Build a Sustainable Cacao Sector that Adapts p to Climate Change Which is Real and Happening Before Our Eyes, We Must Share Our Experiences, Collaborate to Solve Collectively th Pressing the P i Issues I Internationally, I t ti ll Move Quickly Towards Consensus and d Protect P t t the th Lives Li off Millions Milli off Cacao Farmers. 84