macroeconomics - Kishore Kulkarni

Understanding

MACROECONOMICS

F O U R T H E D I T I O N d

KISHORE G. KULKARNI

Professor of Economics, Metropolitan State College of Denver

EDWIN G. DOLAN

Ph.D. Yale University

E

DITOR

: Kristin Van Gaasbeck

T

EXT

D

ESIGN AND

C

OMPOSITION

: Archetype Book Composition

C

OVER

D

ESIGN

: Walker Printing

ISBN: 1-60229-239-6

Copyright © 2007 by Horizon Textbook Publishing, LLC

All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information address Horizon Textbook Publishing, LLC,

P.O. Box 494658, Redding, CA 96049-4658.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

d

Preface xi

PART 1 Introduction to Economics

CHAPTER 1 ECONOMICS—THE SCIENCE OF CHOICE AND

EXCHANGE

What? How? For Whom?

Deciding What to Produce: Opportunity Cost

Deciding How to Produce: Efficiency and Entrepreneurship

Deciding Who Will Do Which Work: The Division of Labor

Deciding for Whom Goods will be Produced: Positive and Normative

Economics

Coordinating Economic Choices

A Non-economic Example

Spontaneous Order in Markets

The Role of Hierarchy

Economic Method

Theories and Models

The Use of Graphs4

Theory and Evidence

Theories and Forecasts

Theory and Policy

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

Appendix to Chapter 1: Working with Graphs

3

5

5

6

10

25

25

26

27

29

21

21

23

24

17

17

18

19

12

14

15

15 iii

iv Contents

CHAPTER 2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND: THE BASICS

Law of Demand

The Demand Curve

Shifts in the Demand Curve1

THE LAW OF Supply

The Supply Curve

Shifts in the Supply Curve

The Interaction of Market Supply and Demand: Market Mechanism

Market Equilibrium

Equilibrium as Spontaneous Order

Shortages

Surpluses

Changes in Market Conditions: Outside Shocks to Market Mechanism)

Price Floors and Ceilings: An Application

Price Supports: The Market for Milk

Price Ceilings: The Case of Rent Control

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

39

56

60

60

62

53

53

55

56

67

68

68

69

70

47

47

50

52

40

41

42

CHAPTER 3 SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND ELASTICITY

Elasticity Of Demand

Price Elasticity of Demand

Calculating Elasticity of Demand

Varying- and Constant-Elasticity Demand Curves

Determinants of Elasticity of Demand

Income Elasticity of Demand

Cross-Elasticity of Demand

Price Elasticity of Supply

Applications of Elasticity

Elasticity and Tax Incidence

Elasticity and Prohibition

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

71

90

91

91

92

93

81

83

83

87

77

78

80

81

72

72

74

Contents v

PART 2 Macroeconomic Goals and Relationships

CHAPTER 4 IN SEARCH OF PROSPERITY AND STABILITY

Macroeconomics in the Long Run: Economic Growth

Measuring Economic Growth

Sources of Economic Growth

The Benefits and Costs of Economic Growth

Short-Run Macroeconomics and: The Business Cycle

Phases of the Business Cycle

Employment and the Business Cycle

Price Stability

Short-Run Costs of Inflation

Long-Run Costs of Inflation

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics For Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

CHAPTER 5 THE CIRCULAR FLOW OF INCOME AND PRODUCT 121

The Circular Flow

Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Income

Components of GDP

Injections and Leakages

The Determinants of Planned Expenditure

Planned Versus Unplanned Expenditure

Consumption Expenditure

Planned Investment

Government Purchases

Net Exports

Equilibrium in The Circular Flow

An Expansion of Planned Expenditure

A Contraction of Planned Expenditure

The Multiplier Effect and the Business Cycle

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics For Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

132

132

133

134

135

136

136

137

138

122

123

123

124

126

126

129

130

131

132

97

112

112

114

116

117

117

118

119

100

103

104

105

98

99

99

vi Contents

Appendix to Chapter 5: The Planned Expenditure Model

CHAPTER 6 MEASURING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

The National Income Accounts in Nominal Terms

Gross Domestic Product

The Expenditure Approach to Measuring GDP

The Income Approach to Measuring Aggregate Economic Activity

Measuring International Linkages

The Current Account

The Capital and Financial Account

Relationship of the Accounts

Measuring Real Income and the Price Level

Real Gross Domestic Product and the Deflator

Producer Price Indexes

How Good are the National Income Accounts?

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

Appendix to Chapter 6: Computation of Price Indexes

PART 3 Macroeconomics and Money

CHAPTER 7 MONEY AND THE BANKING SYSTEM

Money: What It Is and What It Does

The Functions of Money

Money as a Liquid Asset

Measuring the Stock of Money

Why Money Matters

The Banking System

Types of Depository Institutions

The Banking Balance Sheet

The Central Bank

Ensuring the Safety and Stability of the Banking System

Risks of Banking

Policies to Ensure Safety and Soundness

International Banking

Summary

Key Terms

173

181

183

186

186

187

189

191

191

174

174

175

175

178

180

180

139

145

157

157

159

159

164

164

164

165

166

167

146

146

148

151

153

153

154

156

Problems and Topics For Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

CHAPTER 8 CENTRAL BANKING AND MONETARY POLICY

Determining the Quantity Money

A Balance-Sheet View of Money

The Monetary Base

A Closer Look at Bank Reserves

How Banks Create Money

Limits to Banks’ Ability to Create Money

The Instruments of Monetary Policy

Open Market Operations

The Discount Rate

Changes in Required-Reserve Ratios

Other Factors Affecting the Money Multiplier

Central Banking in the International Economy

The Structure of the Foreign-Exchange Market

Supply and Demand in the Foreign-Exchange Market

Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign-Exchange Market

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

CHAPTER 9 MONEY AND INTEREST RATES 221

The Demand for Money

The Demand for Money as a Stock

Money Demand and Nominal Income

Opportunity Cost and the Demand for Money

The Money Demand Curve

Supply, Demand, and Interest Rates

Equilibrium in the Monetary Sector (Equilibrium of Money Market)

Effects of a Change in the Money Supply

227

228

Effects of an Increase in Income 229

The Monetary Sector, Interest Rates, and Planned Expenditure 230

Monetary Policy Instruments and Targets 232

Summary

Key Terms

235

236

222

222

222

223

224

226

Contents vii

191

192

193

195

210

212

213

217

218

218

219

220

205

207

208

209

210

196

196

197

197

199

201

205

viii Contents

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

236

237

238

CHAPTER 10 PRICES AND REAL OUTPUT IN THE SHORT RUN

The Aggregate Demand Curve

Aggregate and Market Demand Curves

The Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve

The Elasticity of Aggregate Demand

Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve

The Aggregate Supply curve

The Importance of Input Prices

Long-Run and Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curves

Shifts in the Short-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

Shifts in the Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve

The Interaction of Aggregate Supply and Demand in the Short Run

Characteristics of Short- and Long-Run Equilibrium

Short-Run Effects of an Increase in Aggregate Demand

Transition to a New Long-Run Equilibrium

Effects of a Decrease in Aggregate Demand

Aggregate Supply, Demand, and the Business Cycle

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

239

251

254

255

255

257

257

259

261

262

263

263

264

265

240

240

242

244

245

248

248

249

PART 4 Macroeconomic Policy

CHAPTER 11 FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC STABILITY

The Theory of Fiscal Policy

Using Government Purchases to Combat a Negative Output Gap

Using a Change in Taxes or Transfer Payments to Combat a Negative

Output Gap

Fiscal Policy and Inflation

Automatic Fiscal Policy

The Budget Process

The Federal Budgetary System

Fiscal Policy and the Federal Deficit

Automatic Fiscal Policy: The Structural Versus Cyclical Deficit

269

270

270

272

274

275

277

277

279

279

Economic Priorities

International Comparisons

The Deficit as a Policy Issue

Reasons Not to Worry About the Deficit

Reasons to Worry About the Deficit

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

CHAPTER 12 AN INTEGRATED VIEW OF MONETARY AND

FISCAL POLICY

Short-Run Effects of Monetary Policy

Long-Run Effects and the Neutrality of Money

Money and Fiscal Policy

The Crowding-Out Effect

Fiscal Policy in the Long Run

The Importance of the Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix

Monetarism Versus Keynesianism: A Historical Note

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

CHAPTER 13 POLICIES FOR PRICE STABILITY

Inflation and Deflation in the Aggregate Supply and Demand Model

Demand-Side (Pull) Inflation

Supply-Side (Cost-Push) Inflation and Supply Shocks

Inflationary Expectations and Inflationary Recession

Deflation and Recession

The Phillips Curve

The Phillips Curve as a Policy Menu

The Phillips Curve and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

The Long-Run Phillips Curve (Monetarists’ View)

Strategies for Lasting Price Stability

What Policy Instruments Are Available?

The Importance of Credibility

Inflation Targeting

Exchange-Rate Based Stabilization Policy

309

321

323

324

325

326

328

328

330

311

311

312

315

318

321

291

301

305

306

306

306

308

292

295

297

297

299

301

Contents ix

281

283

283

283

285

287

287

288

288

289

x Contents

Problems with ERB Stabilization

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

CHAPTER 14 ECONOMIC GROWTH, PRODUCTIVITY, AND

SAVING

Economic Growth and Demand Management

Demand Management as Inputs Grow

Demand Management and Productivity Growth

Recent Trends in Economic Growth and Productivity

Explaining the Productivity Slowdown and Its Reversals

International Productivity Trends

Measurement Problems

Policies for Promoting Economic Growth and Saving

Economic Growth and the Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix

Growth and Saving

How Much Saving Is Enough?

Summary

Key Terms

Problems and Topics for Discussion

Case for Discussion

End Notes

Glossary

Index

339

352

353

355

356

356

356

357

358

340

341

345

347

348

349

350

352

359

373

333

334

335

335

336

338

PREFACE

d

T H E M O S T R E L I A B L E constant of life in a market economy is constant change.

Sitting down to work on this new edition of this textbook has brought many changes to my attention..

Some of them are trivial. One chapter mentioned some authors who were on the best-seller list at the time of the last edition—good books they wrote, but just as the market economy is in constant change, so is the publishing industry. Out they go, to be replaced by J.K. Rowling and Dan Brown.

Other changes are much more fundamental, such as the trend toward globalization of both the macro- and micro-economy. Professional economists will know that this trend is not really new. If one looks at the data, trends in imports and exports, integration of labor and financial markets, and global brand penetration started long ago. Yet, although statistically well established, these trends have clearly hit a new threshold of public awareness in the first decade of the 21st century. For that reason alone, a modern textbook must reflect the global nature of the economy.

One of the signs of its increased global outlook is the disappearance of a separate chapter on foreign exchange markets and international monetary policy. Because these topics are more important than ever, it is no longer appropriate to isolate them in the last chapter of the macroeconomics course, too easily skipped in the rush toward final exams. Instead, topics like the effects of exchange rates on aggregate demand and the relationship between price stability and exchange rate policy are now integrated directly into the various macro chapters that deal with related issues for the domestic economy. The result is a book that is both more up-to-date and more streamlined. Numerous globally-oriented cases and topics appear in the micro chapters as well.

One final change is in the textbook market itself. Earlier editions of this book reflected the college publishing world of the past: Fat, heavy volumes with fat, heavy price tags that, over time, came to be one of the most resented financial burdens of a college education. And students didn’t even get their money’s worth from those texts xi

xii Preface of an earlier era. The technology of the day meant long lead times and the sheer costs of production meant substantial intervals between revisions, so that textbooks were often several years out of date before they hit the classroom. Things were even worse for students who, because of financial pressure, depended on lower-cost used copies of earlier editions. Happily, that model of publishing is now in retreat.

It is a great pleasure to me to see this new edition come out through Horizon

Textbook Publishing. The advantages of working with a publisher who uses the latest technology to bring the book to market just a few months after final revisions are made makes the pleasure all the greater. I hope you, as a user of the book, will complete the cycle by providing me, as author, with your feedback so that your suggested changes can be quickly incorporated in future editions.

Acknowledgments

My first thanks must go to my long-time co-author, David E. Lindsey, with whom I worked on earlier editions of this text over a period of many years. During his years as Deputy Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, David was able to find the ideal balance between the theory and practice of economics. Although he did not contribute directly to preparation of this new edition, his strong influence can still be seen in both the macroeconomic and microeconomic chapters.

Second, I would like to thank Kristin van Gaasbeck, Ph.D for her innovative work in updating data sources, news items, and many other elements for the new edition. Her work has made a big difference in keeping the content of the book fresh and up to date, and in bringing it to market faster than could ever have been done without her able contribution.

Finally, I thank the entire publishing and editorial staff of Horizon Textbook Publishing for introducing me to this great new concept in college publishing. I hope you, the user, benefit as much as I have.

EDWIN G. DOLAN

Lopez Island, Washington

Acknowledgments byKishore G. Kulkarni

The last few months have been very exciting time of my life. I not only added my favorite ways of explaining concepts to this textbook, but also derived satisfaction in interacting with numerous colleagues and students who complimented on the earlier edition of this book. After making numerous changes to the original product created by Prof. Dolan, I am satisfied and confident that the book will be able to clarify macro concepts in the easiest possible way. This edition uses as little mathematics as is necessary, and gives abundant real world examples to make the concepts more applied and interesting.

Preface xiii

I am very thankful to the wonderful staff of Horizon Textbook Publishing Company for making this project possible in such a short time. My special thanks to my wonderful wife who understood my absences from many family obligations when I was working on this project. I dedicate this edition to her cheerfulness and co-operation. Our daughters Lina and Aditi deserve appreciation for making life so worthwhile.

Several of my colleagues have already used this book for their classes, and many more are seriously considering adopting it in future semesters. Notable amongst them are: Debasri Mukherjee, Western Michigan University, Jesus Valencia, Slippery

Rock University, Vani Kotcherlakota, University of Nebraska-Kearney, and Vijay

Sharma, University of Colorado-Denver. I am grateful to all these individuals. Most of all, thanks to hundreds (and probably thousands) of my students who would attend classes and read these chapters. Teaching is an enjoyable exercise when students show enthusiasm to learn, and are willing to study. I invite all of you to send me comments by e-mail.

KISHORE G. KULKARNI,

Denver, Colorado. E-mail: kulkarnk@mscd.edu

Features of This Edition

• State of the art pedagogy . An abundance of case studies introduce and illustrate the subject matter of every chapter.

• Integrated international economics.

As the world economy itself comes closer together, international economics must be more closely integrated into the principles course. Accordingly, topics in international economic theory and policy, ranging from balance of payments accounts to the foreign exchange operations of the Fed, are introduced in the chapters in which they occur naturally, rather than presented separately in a single chapter.

Supplements

Test Bank

The accompanying Test Bank contains over 2,000 questions in a variety of formats including multiple choice, true/false, and essay questions.

Instructor’s Manual

The expanded Instructor’s Manual contains material which can be easily included in lectures. The manual also includes all of its traditional elements, including instructional objectives, lecture notes, and suggestions.

xiv Preface

Study Guide

The Study Guide has hands-on applications and self-testing programs. It is available in two versions, Macroeconomics, and Microeconomics.

Students can gain an advantage by reinforcing their reading and lecture notes with the following study guide features:

• Where You’re Going.

The objectives and terms for each chapter are recapped to tie concepts together.

• Walking Tour.

The “Walking Tour” section provides a narrative summary of the chapter and incorporates questions on key points. Answers are given in the margin.

• Hands On.

Geographical and numerical exercises clarify concepts and better prepare students for tests and quizzes.

• Economics in the News.

A news item illustrates how concepts covered in the chapter can appear in the real world. Questions and answers reinforce the concepts.

• Questions for Review.

These questions and answers follow the key chapter concepts, preparing students for the self-test.

• Self-Test.

Extra test preparation increases a student’s understanding and ability to succeed.

• Careers in Economics.

Formerly an appendix in the text, this material provides students with an understanding of where the study of economics could lead them.

Online Student Tutorial

Created to support and enhance the student's comprehension of the economic principles discussed in the textbook. The online tutorial includes chapters objectives and study questions. To access the tutorial please visit our Students section on our Web site www.htpublishing.com. Username: Economics Password: DolanLindsey

Contents xv

About the Authors

PROF. KISHORE G. KULKARNI has been teaching in Economics Department at the

Metropolitan State College of Denver for numerous years. He has taught on a visiting

(or Adjunct) basis at the University of Colorado-Boulder, Colorado School of Mines and University of Denver. After being a top ranked student in B.A. and M.A. degrees at the University of Poona, (India), he completed M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from University of Pittsburgh. He has received several awards including Distinguished Service to the College, Outstanding Teacher, Outstanding Researcher/Scholar and Outstanding Contributions to the Professional Development (8 times) from different institutions. An author of 4 other books and 75 journal articles, Prof. Kulkarni enjoys teaching and research. His unending love for the profession makes his classes exciting, rewarding and entertaining. He has taught on the Semester at Sea Program as well as visited several other countries on research missions.

EDWIN G. DOLAN was born in Oklahoma and grew up in a small town in Oregon.

He attended Earlham College and Indiana University, where he majored in Russian

Studies and received the Certificate of Indiana University’s famed Russian and East-

European Institute. After earning a doctorate in economics from Yale University, he taught at Dartmouth College, the University of Chicago, George Mason University and Gettysburg College. In 1990, he began teaching in Moscow, Russia, where he and his wife founded the American Institute of Business and Economics, an independent, not-for-profit MBA program. Since retiring as President of that institution in 2001, he has lectured on global macroeconomics and managerial economics in Riga, Latvia;

Budapest, Hungary; and Zagreb, Croatia. When not lecturing abroad, he makes his home in Washington’s San Juan Islands.

d