Preparation of an Advanced High School Lesson Plan for Global Climate Change Practical Exam for Masters of Science Prepared for: Dr. Thomas Feeney Dr. Jan Smith Shippensburg University of Pennsylvania Department of Geography and Earth Science Prepared by Corey Pelow August 11, 2014 Page | i Table of Contents 1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2. Climate Change Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Unit Learning Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 15 Day Lesson Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Venn Diagram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Climate Change Project and Rubric. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Summative Essay Assignment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Climate Change: Student Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Climate Change in Pennsylvania (with answers) . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 4. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 5. Appendix: Student copy of Climate Change in Pennsylvania . . . . . . . . 56 Page | ii Introduction Global climate is changing and this change will inevitably have a significant impact on our planet’s various systems, inhabitants and ecosystems. Most experts agree that these changes are anthropogenic in nature and that they are changing at an increased rate. Climate change has been one of the most studied and debated issues of the last 60 or more years. Many recent scientific studies have, however, narrowed the misconceptions and have promoted intelligent scientific conclusions on the topic of climate change. One such statement was made by the National Research Council in 2010. “Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for—and in many cases is already affecting—a broad range of human and natural systems.” (NRC, 2010) This conclusion was based on scientific evidence from recent assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report, as well as, other assessments of scientific knowledge on the state of climate change (NRC, 2010). It is often broadly understood that climate change is a highly debatable topic and that climate science is very uncertain. However, much of this debate is spurred by policy makers and the media. It is extensively agreed in the scientific community that Page | 1 the climate is changing and that evidence points to anthropogenic reasons (Oreskes, 2004). As mentioned above, there are still many misconceptions regarding climate science. It is a responsibility of the scientific and educational communities to adequately educate the youth of our planet on facts, issues and misconceptions regarding climate change. The primary purpose of this project is to create a unit lesson plan for high school students while addressing the questions and goals below: Define global climate change and examine the probable causes and effects, both globally and locally. Use long term-weather and hydrologic data to explore changes over the past several decades and correlate this data to possible climate change. This project will not investigate climate change mitigation or our social, political or economic involvement into combating, controlling or adapting to climate change. Page | 2 Climate Change Unit Lesson Objectives By the end of this lesson, students should be able to: 1. Develop a definition of the greenhouse effect and demonstrate understand of its principles. 2. Know the sources of greenhouse gases and develop an understanding of their role in the Earth’s atmosphere. 3. Participate in group brainstorming sessions and class discussions related to the impact of the greenhouse effect and global climate change. 4. Construct an essay demonstrating knowledge of the possible effects, both global and local, of climate change. 5. Create a project or participate in a debate regarding various specific topics concerning climate change. Estimate time for unit: The unit will take approximately 15 days of school. This planning is based on forty-two minute class periods with outside classwork required. Time will also depend on the ability and number of students per class. Items Needed: Venn Diagram (included in this packet) Climate Change: Student Reading (included in this packet) Climate Change in Pennsylvania I and II (included in this packet) Data Analysis Homework Assignment (included in this packet) Laptop cart or computer lab Page | 3 Unit Learning Matrix Course: Earth and Grade: 11-12 Prepared by: C. Pelow Environmental Science Key Learning Goals Student Learning Objectives (SLO’s) -The Global Climate is Changing. -Students should understand how humans -Humans have a role in the environment in both positive and negative impacts. -The atmosphere is in a constant state of change. -One change to the Earth’s systems can can affect the Earth’s climatic system? -Students will relate knowledge of how the greenhouse effect is essential to life on Earth and the cause and effect relationships between greenhouse gases and temperature? have a larger impact on other Earth systems. -Students will demonstrate how a rise in global temperature can affect other systems of the Earth. Students will know… Students will be able to… -how human activity causes change in the -hypothesize current and future effects of environment. human activity on global climate. -cause and effect relationships to climate change and how it will relate to humans -the difference between natural and -explain relationships about the Earth’s systems and make predictions about environmental disturbances. anthropogenic climate change. Page | 4 Students will know… (continued) Students will be able to… (continued) -what changes we can make to limit -hypothesize current and future effects of climate change. human activity on local climate. -analyze diagrams, graphs, data, and models and correlate their importance to understanding climate change. Assessment Evidence PDE and District Standards Performance Tasks: Atmospheric chemistry- 3.5.10.C -Student reading using the text rendering method and Charts and Graphs Homework -Climate Change in Pennsylvania I and II -Climate change presentation to the class -Data Analysis homework (S11.D.2.1.1) Climate versus weather; climate change; humans and climate- 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) Air pollution and greenhouse gases 4.5.10C and E -Final summative essay (substitution for a Atmosphere and energy- 3.5.10.C unit exam) (S11.D.2.1.2) Other evidence: Heat and moisture- 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1.1) -Small group and class discussion regarding the Venn Diagram Conservation- 4.5.12.C -Small group and class discussion Economics and the environment regarding the effects of climate change 4.5.10.D, 4.5.10.E both globally and locally Page | 5 Date: Day 1- Introduction to Climate Change Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: How has human activity caused global climate change over the past century? Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) Anticipatory Set/Activators: Students are to work on the Venn Diagram 4.5.10C individually. After appropriate time (approximately 10 minutes), students are to 4.5.10E pair up with three or four other classmates to discuss their diagrams. One partner must have similar views and one must have opposing views (10-15 more minutes). Lesson Goals: One of the reasons for an activating strategy such as a Venn Reminders: Diagram is to indicate to the teacher the depth and scope of student background knowledge. This activity allows for students to engage their prior knowledge, introduce questions and collaborate with fellow students. This will also allow for the teacher to address the various misconceptions that may arise about climate change. Lesson Procedures: Follow the activating strategy with a class discussion based on their opinions and prior knowledge of climate change. To do this, the students will conduct a “4 corners” activity. They will pair in groups with similar views and record their thoughts on the laptops in SMART Notebook. The teacher will then import their lists to the Smartboard and discuss student knowledge and misconceptions. Closure/ Homework: Using the text rendering method, assign Climate Change: Student Reading. This reading will act as a base of knowledge that they must use to complete the unit. This is due by day 3. The text rendering method is described in the assignment. By this time in the school year, students will have used this method and should be familiar with it. Homework Goals: The text rendering method personalizes the assignment and gives students accountability for their work and understanding of the information. The goal of this assignment is Page |6 for the students to get a basic understanding of climate change. Greater exploration into climate change will occur throughout this lesson. Climate Change Venn Diagram Directions: Read the statement below. Based on your prior knowledge of climate change, formulate a response. Be sure to note specific “facts” and reasons for your hypothesis. Next, find a partner with the opposing view and complete the Venn Diagram. Statement: Human activity has caused global climate change over the past century. Disagree Agree Both sides agree that: Page | 7 Date: Day 2- Introduce Presentations Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: How can a rise in global temperature affect other systems of the Earth? How can an increase in greenhouse gases cause a rise in global temperature? Anticipatory Set/Activator 1: Ask for volunteers to summarize the main Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) 4.5.10E Reminders: points of yesterday’s activities. Anticipatory Set/Activator 2: Have the students make a list of any topic that involves climate change. Record this list on the board or Smart Board. Revise this list as needed. Lesson Goals: The Climate Change presentations will be introduced and explained today. The students will pick their topics based on the list created on the board. During this assignment, students will work collaboratively to design an effective presentation which demonstrates that they have a solid understanding of their specific topic while effectively communicating information to other students. Lesson Procedures: Introduce the Climate Change Presentation. Pass out and go over the presentation assignment and rubric. Discuss teacher expectations and answer any questions. Students will then be allowed to pick their partners, topics, and begin research (time permitting). A laptop cart may be necessary. If permitted, students can use their individual electronic devices for research. Closure/ Homework: Remind the students that the text rendering assignment Climate Change: Student Reading is due tomorrow. Remind the students that they can begin doing research for their presentation. Page | 8 Climate Change Project Assignment: You and your partner will present a project to the class on one of the topics below. Presentations must take a minimum of three minutes and should not exceed six minutes. Visual aids such as posters are required. They must be created by the students. Notecards are allowed but reading directly from the notecard will be penalized. The use of electronic AV equipment (i.e. computers, projectors…) is prohibited. Groups will go randomly as picked by the teacher, therefore, all groups should be ready to give their presentations on the first day. All visual aids must be turned in on the first day. If you are not ready, a late penalty of 30% per day will be assessed. Grading will be according to the rubric following this paper. Presentations are due on day 11 of this unit. Due Date: ___________________ Your topic: __________________ Debate: If you choose to pick the debate, you will not be graded as to which side won but as to your research, preparation and presentation. The winning group, however, will receive 5 bonus points. The debate will be head to head style with Mr. Pelow as your mediator. Time requirements for the debate will have a minimum of 15 minutes and a maximum of 30 minutes. Debate teams can have three members per team. Further criteria and information will be given to the debate teams once they have been decided. Page | 9 Topics: Your presentation will be on one of the following topics. If you would like to choose a different topic in this related field, Mr. Pelow is open to suggestions. Climate change and its global effects Local effects of climate change Natural climate change through astronomical processes Natural climate change through geologic processes The Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases and their sources Possible solutions for climate change Global warming debate “for” Global warming debate “against” Other Criteria: Your rubric must be presented to the teacher with the top section filled out at the time of presentation. A three point penalty will be assessed if it is not. Dress and appearance does not have to be business professional but your look must not detract from your presentation. You may use the articles given to you by Mr. Pelow as a source. You will need to use two other professional style sources. They can be found on the internet but on-line encyclopedias are not accepted. Remember that your bibliography/works cited page must be alphabetized and will be turned in on the due date of this assignment. There will be a 5 point penalty if it is not. Page | 10 Climate Change Rubric Names: ___________________ Topic: ____________________ ____________________ Criteria Use of class time Originality/Creativity Required Elements Grammar Neatness Sources Time Requirements Criteria Points Total Used time well during each of the classes. Focused on getting the project done. Never distracted others. Used creativity and originality in their creation of the presentation. Not a copy. Was the topic well researched and was enough information given. Required facts include but are not limited to explanation of the topic and interesting facts/ideas. There are no grammatical mistakes on this project. The project must be neat, colorful and well designed. Attention should be given to the products. 10 3 Sources cited in proper form Pictures cited Bibliography alphabetized 10 Presentation fit within the 3-6 minute timeline (15-30 for the debate). Your Points 5 5 5 5 15 Time:_____________ Presentation Total Appearance, professionalism, eye contact, clarity and quality of speech will be assessed. Is your presentation wellrehearsed? 15 70 Comments: Page | 11 Date: Day 3- Assess Student Reading Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): Explain how Law and Theory relate to the greenhouse effect and climate 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1.1) change. 4.5.10E Anticipatory Set/Activators: 4.5.12.C Have the students revisit their Venn Diagrams. After reading the homework assignment on climate change, have the students make alterations to their diagrams. This can be done individually or in groups. Ask for volunteers to discuss the revisions to their Venn Diagrams. Lesson Procedures: The teacher will assign groups of 4-5 students. Students will get in their groups and review the reading assignments. They will use this time to answer questions they may have. During this time, the teacher will walk around from group to group and make a formal homework assessment as to the depth and scope that the assignment was completed. When the students are done with their discussions, a list of remaining questions will be made on the board. The teacher will then address the questions that still remain. Teacher note: When discussing the graph on Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, be sure to point out that emissions from forestry and land use change involve fossil fuel consumption and, therefore, the percentage of emissions is greater than the graph implies. It should be noted that more than two thirds of all greenhouse gas emissions result from energy use and production. Closure/ Homework: Reminders: Check for understanding- students will individually answer the following questions as a ticket out the door. 1. Explain specifically how greenhouse gases increase global temperature. 2. What are the main contributors of greenhouse gases? Page | 12 Date: Day 4- Climate Change on Pennsylvania Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: What current and future effects may climate change have on Pennsylvania? Anticipatory Set/Activators: Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1.1) 4.5.10E 4.5.12.C Hand out the assignment Climate Change in Pennsylvania I and II. Have the students complete the first page in class. They may work in small groups. The teacher will conduct a class discussion as to their answers, opinions and questions. Lesson Goals: Reminders: Students will investigate the potential impacts of climate change on Pennsylvania. Lesson Procedures: Assign Climate Change in Pennsylvania II. Students may use the remaining class time to work on this assignment. Note: The Climate Change in Pennsylvania activity is included after the lesson plans. Closure/ Homework: Students are to read the article and complete the worksheet Climate Change in Pennsylvania II. This assignment will be due on day 6 of this unit. Page | 13 Date: Day 5- Classwork on Presentations Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: How is the greenhouse effect essential to Earth? Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1.1) How can humans affect the Earth’s climatic system? 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1.2 Anticipatory Set/Activators: Students are to complete a 3-2-1 activity with 4.5.10E the following: 4.5.12.C 3- 3 new concepts learned so far in this unit 2- 2 new “facts” learned so far in this unit 1- 1 important question they may have regarding climate change. Reminders: Collect the activity when completed. Lesson Goals: To insure that the students are in-line with the goals and intentions of the project, it is imperative that the teacher is actively involved in guiding them through the stages of the project. This time will allow for the teacher to discuss the assignments individually with each group. Lesson Procedures: When students have completed the activator and turned it in, they may get in their groups to work on their presentations. The teacher will walk around from group to group and facilitate the activity. Closure/ Homework: Remind the students that Climate Change in Pennsylvania II is due tomorrow at the beginning of class. Page | 14 Date: Day 6- The Effects of Climate Change Mr. Pelow Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: What current and future effects may climate change have on Pennsylvania? Anticipatory Set/Activators: The teacher will collect the homework Climate Change in Pennsylvania II upon beginning the class. Once this has been completed, conduct the Restaurant Survey (located on the next page). Use the Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) 4.5.10C 4.5.10E results to place the students in groups for the daily activity. Lesson Procedures: Reminders: Students will be placed into groups using the “Restaurant” activity. Topics will be placed on the board. Each group is to hypothesize as to how the following topics will be affected by global climate change. Emphasize to the students that they will need to give at least one example of each and support their hypotheses with reasons. When the students have completed the task, the teacher will lead a guided discussion as to how the specific topics may be affected by climate change. One or more representative from each group will give their opinions on the topics. Glacial ice (polar and equatorial) Soil erosion and mass wasting Global albedo Groundwater recharge Amount of vegetation Coastal erosion Average precipitation Wetland changes Occurrence of major storm events Sea level Closure/ Homework: Ask the students if they have any questions about their presentations and remind them of due dates and teacher expectations. Ticket Out the Door- Have students hypothesize as to which of the topics covered in class today will affect global population the most. Have them do the same for their own lives. Page | 15 Restaurant Survey Name: _________________ What is your favorite place to eat? Use a 1 for your first choice and a 2 for your second. You should only have one 1 and one 2 for the entire paper. Fast Food ____ Jake’s Wayback Burgers ____ Arbys ____ McDonalds ____ KFC ____ Wendys ____ Chick-fil-a ____ Taco Bell ____ Other Chinese/ Asian Italian/ Pizza ____ Ho Wah ____ Al’s ____ Evergreen Buffet ____ Sal’s ____ Mikado ____ Pizza Hut/Dominos ____ Hibachi ____ Davinci ____ Other ____ Other Diner/Deli’s Homemade ____ Silver Spring ____ Mom’s cooking ____ Middlesex ____ Dad’s cooking ____ New Kingston ____ Grandma’s cooking ____ Other ____ Other Sit-Downs Mexican ____ Panera ____ El Rodeo ____ Isaacs ____ Neato Burrito ____ Red Robin (yummm) ____ Rancho Grande ____ Olive Garden ____ Fiesta Mexico ____ Carrabbas ____ El Sol ____ Aroogas ____ Other Page | 16 Date: Day 7- Climate Change in Pennsylvania Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: What current and future effects may climate change have on Pennsylvania? Lesson Procedures: While grading the homework Climate Change in Pennsylvania II (collected Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) 4.5.10C 4.5.10E yesterday), the teacher will determine one or more questions that each student has correct. This student will become the “subject matter expert” on these questions. The teacher may add comments to these questions/answers if Reminders: necessary. The teacher will assign each student to a group ensuring every group has a “subject matter expert” for every question. Upon arrival to class, the teacher will pass back the graded homework papers and explain the directions and intentions of today’s assignment to the class. The class will then break into their respective assigned groups and go over the correct answers. The teacher will facilitate the activity. Upon completion of the activity, the class will go back to their assigned seats for a teacher led question and answer session. Closure/ Homework: Ask the students if they have any questions about their presentations and remind them of due dates and teacher expectations. Page | 17 Date: Day 8- Free Day/Work Day Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: What are the cause and effect relationships between greenhouse gases and temperature? Anticipatory Set/Activators: Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) 4.5.10C 4.5.10E Students will work with partners in a think-pair-share activity to answer the essential question. The teacher will then ask for volunteers to lead a group discussion to answer the question. Lesson Procedures: Reminders: This day will remain free for two objectives. The previous day’s discussion and answer session may not be finished. This time can be used to complete this assignment. The remaining time may be used for students to get in their groups and work on their presentations. The teacher will use this time to discuss the assignment and topics individually with each group. Closure/ Homework: Ask the students if they have any questions about their presentations and remind them of due dates and teacher expectations. Page | 18 Date: Day 9- Data Analysis Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): What current and future trends may climate change have on global climate? 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) Anticipatory Set/Activators: Reminders: Discuss/ review with the students the following terms: line of best fit/ linear trend line positive and negative correlation peak discharge stream discharge gage height Lesson Goals: It is important that students learn how to read and analyze data, graphs and charts. This assignment will help them to complete these tasks while correlating their importance to understanding climate change. Lesson Procedures: Pass out the worksheet Data Analysis. Students may work individually or in pairs to complete the assignment. It is due tomorrow (day 10). Note: The Data Analysis activity is included after the lesson plans. Closure/ Homework: Data Analysis worksheet is due tomorrow (day 10). Page | 19 Date: Day 10- “Housekeeping” Day Earth and Environmental Science Lesson Goals: As the unit draws to conclusion, this day will be for the teacher to relay final expectations and goals to the students. The final writing Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) assignment will be handed out so that the students may begin preparing. This is 4.5.12.C the last school day before presentations begin and, therefore, may be the last 4.5.10.D time for the teacher to touch base with groups to address accuracy or any 4.5.10.E misconceptions. Lesson Procedures: Reminders: The teacher will begin by collecting the Data Analysis assignment. Pass out the Summative Essay Assignment (included on the next page of this packet). The teacher will go over the expectations of the assignment and answer any questions. Pass out 3 x 5 inch notecards. Each student may have two. The remaining class time may be used for the following: Students can begin working on their 3 x 5 notecards. Groups can continue to work on their projects. Remind the students that this may be the last time for the teacher to help/answer any questions. Closure/ Homework: Remind groups that the due date for all projects is tomorrow and that any and all visual aids will be collected in the beginning of the period. All groups should be ready to give their presentation tomorrow. Page | 20 Summative Essay Assignment Climate change, although complicated and vastly interrelated, is a tangible problem. It is one of the most significant scientific, environmental and economic threats facing our Earth. You are going to write a summative essay demonstrating your knowledge of climate change. Be sure to include the following: What is climate change and what causes it? What are the greenhouse gases, where do they come from and how do they affect global temperature? How might our Earth be affected by climate change? How will climate change affect our lives? What are some things we can do to combat global and/or local climate change? You may use no more than two (2) 3 x 5 inch notecard that you have prepared. These are the only external resources allowed. This assignment will be done in class on day 15 of this unit. You will have the entire period to complete this assignment. Extended time may be granted but must be successive to your class period. You will have as much paper as you need. If you choose, you may type your assignment using only a school provided laptop. If you are absent on the day of the essay, you will be expected to make it up on the following day you are in school. Your paper will be assessed based on your thorough and details demonstration of what you have learned in this unit. Your paper will be graded by your science teacher for content, focus, depth or knowledge, amount of information and evidence given, and correctness of information. This is a cross curricular assignment as your English teacher will grade your essay for grammar, appearance and style. You will receive a grade worth 50 points in both of your classes. Page | 21 Date: Days 11 through 13- Presentations Earth and Environmental Science Goal Statement: The students will demonstrate that they have an understanding of how humans can and have affected global climate. Lesson Procedures: Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) 4.5.12.C 4.5.10.D 4.5.10.E Students will give their presentations. Groups will be randomly selected by the teacher. All presentations must be submitted and ready to go before the first Reminders: group goes. Groups will be randomly drawn “from a hat”. This being a science class, groups will actually be drawn from a beaker. Groups will be graded as per the rubric and they will not know their score until after the last group has gone. The climate debate will go last and will be given adequate time to complete the debate. Note to teacher: Collect all rubrics and materials in the beginning of class. Collect all notecards after each presentation. Remember to have a stopwatch ready. Have extra rubrics just in case students do not turn in theirs. Closure/ Homework: If there is any remaining time in the period, the teacher should use this time to discuss content related topics regarding the presentations. Do not address individual presentations. Remind students of the due date for the Summative Essay and remind them that they can be preparing the notecards. Page | 22 Date: Day 14- Review Data Analysis Earth and Environmental Science Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): How can data be used to support scientific ideas? 3.5.10.C (S11.D.2.1) Lesson Procedures: Reminders: Objective 1- The teacher will begin by discussing the presentations. Discussion will be done according to content as well as areas for improvement (being sure to bring up positives and specific examples as well). Objective 2- When this is complete, the teacher will pass back the Data Analysis assignment. The teacher will use his “Plinko Board” to randomly determine which student will answer each question. The teacher will facilitate the discussion as needed. If there is any remaining time, the students can work on their notecards for the essay. Note: Yes, Mr. Pelow has a “Plinko Board.” Closure/ Homework: Remind students that the Summative Essay is due tomorrow. Remind them that they can use two prepared notecards. The essay will begin upon the beginning of the bell and the notecards must be finalized before arriving to class. Page | 23 Date: Day 15- Summative Essay Earth and Environmental Science Mr. Pelow Standards (Anchors): Essential Question/ Student Learning Objective: How has human activity caused global climate change over the past century and how is it expected to impact the Earth and our lives? Lesson Goal: The students will demonstrate their knowledge of climate change Reminders: and how it impacts the Earth and our lives. Lesson Procedures: The assignment was passed out and explained to the students on day 10 of this unit. This gave them several days to prepare for the writing assignment. The teacher passed out 3 x 5 inch notecards on day 10. Students will have the entire period to work on the assignment. Computers from the laptop cart will already be turned on and logged into by the teacher. The teacher will ensure that the internet has been disabled on the computers. Teacher notes regarding the Summative Essay Assignment. - There must be close collaboration with an English teacher to correctly assess this assignment as described. - Some students may require more time as per their Individual Assessment Plan. Please plan accordingly. - If using laptops, be sure the internet is disabled. - Be sure to collect all notecards at the end of the exam. Closure/ Homework: When a student turns in their assignment, they may RELAX. Their climate change unit is over (but climate change will not go away). Extra Credit Assignment (up to 5 Points) Write a one page letter to a local governmental representative urging him or her to help take a stand on climate change. Be sure to support opinions with specific information from what was learned from this unit. Page | 24 Climate Change: Student Reading Read the following passage. This reading assignment will act as a base of knowledge that you will need in order to successfully complete the unit and will be referred to throughout the unit. This is due by day 3 of the unit. Be sure to thoroughly answer the homework questions at the end of the reading. During your reading you will do the following: Use a highlighter to emphasize important information. Be sure to only highlight what you think is important. Circle and place a question mark next to the information that is confusing or difficult to understand. Box words or terms that you do not know or understand. Write in the left hand column any connections, questions or “I wonder” statements. You should also use this space to write any notes that you think may be useful. Notes, questions, connections and statements. Facts- The Greenhouse Effect The topics of global warming and climate change have arguably been one of the most studied and debated issues of the last 60 or more years. Is the Earth getting warmer? Is warming of the Earth related to natural events or it is brought on by anthropogenic causes? How will climate Page | 25 change affect us? Is it just a myth brought on by flawed and incomplete science? Over the past half century, answering these questions has turned climate change into a highly debated issue that has brought on scientific, political and societal contention. However, further investigation into current research has led the scientific community to extensively agree that the climate is changing and that evidence points to anthropogenic reasons (Oreskes, 2004). To further investigate climate change, one would need to know the facts about the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is not just a theory. It is what keeps the Earth warm, and therefore, us alive at night. Solar energy arrives to us through energy waves called radiation. Much of the radiation makes its way to the Earth’s surface and warms the Earth. This radiation will then re-radiate back into the atmosphere. As it re-radiates back in the form of infra-red radiation, its wavelength becomes longer. The original shorter wavelengths pass easily through the atmosphere, however, much of this new longer wavelength gets absorbed or trapped by greenhouse gases and heats the Earth’s atmosphere (Daniel, 1999). We can look to the solar system to further illustrate Page | 26 the greenhouse effect. Mercury, being the closest planet to the Sun, has one of the highest daytime temperatures of any planet in the solar system. Daytime temperatures on Mercury can reach upwards of 800oF. However, without an atmosphere to trap solar energy, Mercury’s nighttime temperatures can reach almost -200oF. This is an unparalleled temperature difference between day time and night time. (Mercury: Facts & Figures. NASA) If you would investigate temperatures on Venus, you would find a different scenario. Venus’ position in the solar system averages 50 million kilometers further from the Sun than Mercury’s, however, Venus is hotter than Mercury. Day time temperatures on Venus can be over 850oF. Night time temperatures on Venus remain about the same as day time temperature. This is because Venus has an incredibly thick atmosphere dominated by greenhouse gases. Venus has an atmosphere 93 times thicker than that of the Earth’s. NinetySix percent of Venus’ atmosphere is dominated by carbon dioxide (Venus: Facts and Figures. NASA). This thick atmosphere, comprised mainly of strong greenhouse gases, is the reason for its incredible surface temperature and little variation between day and night. Page | 27 Notes, questions, connections and statements. So What is the Problem? According to some studies, the Earth’s average temperature would be at least 91oF lower without the Greenhouse Effect (Smil, 2003). As mentioned above, the Greenhouse Effect helps keep the Earth warm and thriving. So where is the problem? In order for the Earth’s temperature to remain stable, its heat budget needs to be in balance. Overall the Earth must have the same amount of energy leave through the atmosphere as enters for average temperatures to remain constant. Greenhouse gases have proven to trap solar energy, and therefore, an increase in greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere will create an increase in global temperatures. This creates the event you have known to be called global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific body supported by the United Nations designed to assess published literature and be the internationally accepted authority on climate change. The IPCC has published 5 major reports that will be referred to throughout this reading. Page | 28 In its latest Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC stated in their “Summary for the Policy Makers” that: Human influence has been detected in the warming of the atmosphere and the oceans, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century (IPCC, 2013). In its fourth assessment (AR4) published in 2007, the IPCC reported that scientists were more than 90% certain that most global warming was being cause by an anthropogenic increase in carbon dioxide (IPCC, 2007). In 2013, the IPCC stated that the major cause of global warming is carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, cement production and land use changes such as deforestation (IPCC, 2013). Page | 29 According to the IPCC, global warming is the unequivocal and continuing rise in the average temperature of Earth's climate system (IPCC, 2013). In approximately the last 100 years, the Earth’s air and sea surface temperatures have risen about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F). About two thirds of this increase has occurred since 1980 (The National Academies Press, 2011). During each of the last three decades it has been warming at a rate greater than any since 1850 (IPCC, 2013). In AR5, using predictions from climate models, the IPCC indicated that global surface temperature will continue to rise. Using the lowest emission scenario, the report predicted a further rise of 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) throughout the 21st century. In the highest emission scenario, temperatures rose an unprecedented 2.6 to 4.8°C (4.7 to 8.6°F) (IPCC, 2013). According to the IPCC, greenhouse gas emissions increased 2.2% per year between 2000 and 2010. Compare this to a 1.3% increase per year in the period between 1970 to 2000 (IPCC, 2013). Under the scientific assumption that an anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases has been and will continue to lead to an increase in global surface Page | 30 temperatures, it can be concluded that global temperature will continue to rise. Notes, questions, connections and statements. Effects of Climate Change How are global warming and climate change different? In the glossary of AR3, the IPCC defines climate change as “a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over long periods of time, regardless of cause.” (IPCC, 2001) The IPCC did not define global warming but it generally refers to an increase in surface water and air temperature. So what is the difference? Global warming generally refers to an increase in surface temperature while climate change includes this temperature change and anything else that increasing greenhouse gases will affect. In both cases, global warming and climate change can be naturally occurring. Although the Earth’s natural processes can cause climate change, this project will refer to anthropogenic causes due to the powerful information about increasing greenhouse gases cited in this article. Any short term fluctuation, such as El Nino or La Nina is not considered part of either. Page | 31 The effects of climate change will have regional variation around the world. Some of the effects of an increase in global temperature include changes in precipitation regarding amount and patterns, a rise in sea level, possible expansion of deserts, and retreat of ice including glaciers, sea ice and permafrost. Other potential effects include more frequent extreme weather including flood events, heat waves, droughts and storms. Ocean acidification will most likely increase due to an increase in carbon dioxide combining with water to form carbonic acid. Species extinction is probable as well as a threat to food security. Warming is expected to be the strongest in the arctic regions, especially in the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC, 2007). As stated above, the topic of climate change has been heavily studied and debated. The journal Environmental Research Letter studied 11,944 peer reviewed and published literature articles. They found that of those who took a position on anthropogenic climate change, 97.2% of the articles supported the consensus that climate change was caused by human influences (Cook et al., 2013). Page | 32 A 2011 publication from George Mason University collected scientific opinions. Of 489 scientists who responded, 97% agreed that global temperatures have risen over the past century. Maybe even more convincing is that 84% agreed that human induced global warming from greenhouse gas emissions was responsible. Only 5% of the scientists disagreed with the idea of human activity being responsible for global warming (Wihbey, 2011). According to a 2011 study released by Pennsylvania State University, carbon dioxide is now being released into the atmosphere almost ten times as fast as a similar period of climate change that occurred around 56 million years ago. The study went on to state that the climate may be changing faster than the ecosystem can adapt (Kump, 2011). The effects of climate change have been very well studied and documented. It can be concluded in this study that climate change is happening and is mainly a result from human-made causes. Just how severe it will affect us and to what extent we must go to protect our world from climate change is still very open to further study and exploration. It would, however, be irresponsible and foolish of us to not give climate change the serious consideration that it warrants. Page | 33 The following chart lists some of the main greenhouse gases and their sources. Greenhouse Gas Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Description Sources A colorless, odorless greenhouse gas. It occurs both naturally and as a result of human activities. Carbon dioxide may be the main cause of climate change. Burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas; driving automobiles, electricity production, cement production, deforestation. Decay of plants, animals, and waste, as well as other processes. It is also the main ingredient in natural gas. Farming practices (such as fertilizer use) that add extra nitrogen to the soil, burning fossil fuels, and certain industrial processes Refrigeration and air conditioning systems, fire extinguishers, foam products, and others products Burning fossil fuels, air pollution and smog Methane A colorless, odorless greenhouse gas. It occurs both naturally and as a result of human activities. Nitrous Oxide A colorless, odorless greenhouse gas. It occurs both naturally and as a result of human activities. Fluorinated Gases Ozone A group of powerful greenhouse gases that can stay in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. Fluorinated gases are artificially produced. Anthropogenic tropospheric ozone is considered a greenhouse gas. Information Obtained from: "Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases". Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change In 2010, the United States emitted over 6.8 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide accounted for by far the largest percentage of greenhouse gases. Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2010 (EPA 2012) Found at: http://www.c2es.org/factsfigures/us-emissions/gas Page | 34 Charts and Graphs Homework Use the graphs and charts to answer in detail the following questions. _________ 25 Points These graphs are based on the Vostok ice core from Antarctica. They do not include the most recent increases in carbon dioxide and temperature caused by humans. Source: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/students/basics/past.html Using the graph above, write a small paragraph describing the relationship between carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and atmospheric temperature. _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ Page | 35 Annual Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by sector Source: Penn State College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, 2012. https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog438w/node/375 According to the pie chart above, list in order the five main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. __________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ This chart is based on global production. Hypothesize as to how the United States’ emissions may differ from this chart? Be sure to give evidence for your reasons. _____ ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________ According to this graph, “Land Use Change & Forestry” play a large role in greenhouse gas emissions. Explain what some causes of emissions may be in this category. ______ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ Page | 36 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association According to the graph above, about how much more CO2 was found at the Mauna Loa Observatory in 2010 versus 1960? ___________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ According to a NOAA study, CO2 concentrations topped over 400 parts per million for the first time on May 9, 2013. In 2014, the 400 ppm mark was topped two months earlier as compared to 2013. What can you deduce based on this information? Explain your answer. _____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ Source: NOAA. Found at http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/10490/Heat-trappinggas-concentrations-top-400-ppm-two-months-earlier-than-last-year.aspx Page | 37 This diagram to the left shows the top three (3) carbon dioxide producing countries in the world. Name these three countries. Top CO2 producing nations in the world Source: Currentweek.com, January 2014. http://www.currentweek.com/how-do-humanactivities-influence-global-warming/ Of these three countries above, the United States releases the most carbon dioxide per person? Explain several possibilities as to why this may be. ______________________ _______________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________ Overview of Greenhouse Gases by Type Overview of Greenhouse Gases by Sector Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency, April, 2014. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html Use the graphs above to determine specifically the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases. _________________________________________________________________ Page | 38 Climate Change in Pennsylvania I __________ 10 Points Collaborate with a group of no more than four classmates and answer the following questions. 1. It is agreed by almost all scientists that climate change is occurring. Hypothesize about several things that may most likely change in the future regarding PA’s climate? 2. The article you are about to read for homework mentions “climate change will only add to the state’s economic challenges while also dramatically altering many aspects of its economy, character, and quality of life.” 2a. Hypothesize as to several specific ways climate change can have a negative impact on Pennsylvania’s economy. 2b. Hypothesize as to several specific ways climate change can have a negative impact on Pennsylvanian’s (YOUR) quality of life. Page | 39 Climate Change in Pennsylvania II To complete this assignment, you will need to access the article ___________ 30 Points Climate Change Impacts and Solutions for Pennsylvania: How Today’s Actions Shape the State’s Future by the Union of Concerned Scientists. You can find this article on the internet using the URL below or you can find it on Mr. Pelow’s school webpage under “Forms”. http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/assets/Exec-Summary_Climate-Changein-Pennsylvania.pdf Once you have read the article, go back and answer the following questions in detail. 1. List four (4) significant negative effects climate change could have on Pennsylvania. longer and more intense summer heat waves reduced winter snowpack northward shifts in the ranges of valued plant and animal species declining yields of key agricultural crops 2. If we follow the higher-emissions pathway, how will the quality of life for a child today be adversely affected as he/she grows up? Pennsylvanian cities can expect dramatic increases in the number of summer days over 90°F, putting vulnerable populations at greater risk of heat-related health effects and curtailing outdoor activity for many individuals. Heat could cause air quality to deteriorate substantially, exacerbating allergies, asthma, and other respiratory diseases. Increased financial burden to combat issues with climate change. 3. Why can Pennsylvania be subdivided into two distinct climatic regions? The Appalachian Mountains sweep diagonally across Pennsylvania from south-west to northeast. 4. What part of Pennsylvania experiences the greatest extremes in temperature and rainfall? Central Pennsylvania is a fertile landscape of valleys and ridges that experiences the state’s greatest extremes in temperature and rainfall and its heaviest snowfall. Page | 40 5. Compared with the historic period (1961-1990), what climatic changes are expected? Annual average temperatures across Pennsylvania are projected to increase by 2.5°F. Much of the state can expect substantially more days over 90°F—in most cases, at least a doubling. The area of the state that typically experiences 30 days or more of snow in winter is projected to shrink by roughly half. Precipitation is expected to increase statewide by more than 5 percent above the historical average. 6. What are some things that Pennsylvania has already done to help reduce climate changing emissions? reduced heat-trapping emissions by driving investment in energy efficiency, renewable energy technology, and alternative transportation fuels embraced wind power and other clean energy options (not only for energy generation but also for economic development) moved to the forefront among “green power” purchasers 7. What are some noticeable ways Pennsylvania’s climate has already begun to change over the past 100 years? annual average temperatures have increased by around 0.5°F over the past 100 years annual average rainfall has been steadily increasing in all regions but the central southern of the seasons, winters have warmed the most in many of Pennsylvania’s cities the number of extremely hot (over 90°F) summer days has increased since the 1970s the statewide trend of decreasing snow cover has accelerated its decline in the past few decades 8. Compared with the historic period (1961-1990), what climatic changes are expected to occur by late century (2080-2099) if greenhouse emission remains high according to this article? Winter temperatures are projected to rise 8°F above historic levels and summer temperatures are projected to rise 11°F. Most of the southern half of the state is projected to endure more than 70 days a year with temperatures higher than 90°F. The characteristic snow season of Pennsylvania is projected to disappear in most of the state. Precipitation is expected to increase by more than 10 percent statewide. Page | 41 9. Under a lower-emissions future, how will the changes in the late century model be different as compared to the higher emission expectations? They are projected to be about half as great as those listed above. 10. Pennsylvania contributes what percent of the total global emissions of carbon dioxide? Pennsylvania contributes 1 percent of total global emissions of carbon dioxide. 11. What are the top three states in the nation for emitting greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels? Texas, California and Pennsylvania in that order. 12. Even if we drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Pennsylvania’s temperature will continue to increase. List two reasons why temperatures will continue to rise. Emissions of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide can persist in the atmosphere for decades or centuries. The oceans heat and cool more slowly than the air in response to higher concentrations of such gases and will therefore continue to increase temperature. 13. Answer the following questions according to the chart found on page 4 of the article. How many days over 90oF per year did Harrisburg have from 1961-1990? About 5 How many extreme heat days per year does the article project Harrisburg to have from: 2010-2039: Low emission estimation: about 25 High emission estimation: about 27 From: 2070-2099: Low emission estimation: about 41 High emission estimation: about 77 Page | 42 14. Towards the end of the century, Harrisburg could potentially have how many days per year with temperatures over 100oF? 24 or more days over 100°F during the summer, compared with the one or two such days typically experience at present 15. How could increased rainfall add to the challenges Pennsylvania might face? (list at least 3) There could be greater failure of current combined sewer systems Accelerated sea-level rise could worsen Philadelphia’s water supply challenges by increasing salinity in the Delaware River/Estuary system. Hotter summers without an increase in summer rainfall could require that traditionally rain-fed crops be irrigated. The costs of adapting the above changes could be enormous. 16. How could increased rainfall benefit Pennsylvania? increase yields of crops such as corn and soybeans by 5 to 20 percent over the next few decades 17. Agriculture is Pennsylvania’s #1 economic industry. How might an increase in temperature add to the challenges Pennsylvania could face? (list at least 6) Increasing summer heat stress is projected to depress milk production in Pennsylvania by at least 10 percent. The Concord Grape Belt may achieve adequately cold winter temperatures in just one out of two winters, potentially causing large reductions in grape harvests. The chilling requirement for certain apple varieties may be met in just 50 to 60 percent of winters in the southeastern part of the state, including Adams County (the state’s major apple-producing area). Most of Pennsylvania’s cornfields could experience consistent pressure from flea beetle/Stewart’s wilt outbreaks. Economic pressures will be felt both by large operations and small family farms, potentially threatening traditional livelihoods and lifestyles such as those of the Amish. The state’s prized sweetcorn crop may face reduced yields because of summer heat. High-value fruit crops may no longer experience the winter chilling conditions required for optimal fruit production. Increased pest and disease outbreaks. Page | 43 18. List 5 adverse effects on humans as a result of climate change. risk of heat-related health effects and curtailing outdoor activity for many individuals. heat could cause air quality to deteriorate substantially, exacerbating allergies, asthma, and other respiratory diseases increased levels of airborne pollen and lung-damaging air pollution such as ozone and smog poor air quality increases the risk of respiratory illnesses such as asthma, chronic bronchitis, and emphysema higher temperatures can prolong the pollen-allergy season elevated CO2 levels accelerate the productivity of key pollen-allergen sources economic struggles 19. How could Pennsylvania’s native fish species be affected? Fish can be negatively affected by changing temperatures and precipitation patterns, altered seasonal stream flows, higher water temperatures, and diminished shade along stream banks. 20. How could Pennsylvania’s native bird species be affected? As many as half of the 120 bird species modeled in Pennsylvania could see at least a 25% reductions in their suitable habitat. 21. Pennsylvania is the nation’s leading producer of hardwoods. a. How many tree species are in Pennsylvania? More than 100 b. How many jobs in PA are associated with the forestry industry? 90,000 c. How could Pennsylvania’s native tree species be affected? Suitable forest habitat for maple, black cherry, hemlock, and others is expected to shift northward by as much as 500 miles by late century under the higheremissions scenario. Tourism as well as a lucrative timber industry could be affected. This also affects suitable habitat for native animals. Page | 44 22. How can winter recreation be negatively affected by climate change? The north-central region, which currently averages 18 days each winter with snowmobiling conditions (at least six inches of snow on the ground) could be reduced to a season of nine days on average. Only western Pennsylvania ski areas may remain viable, and even they may be economically vulnerable. Snowmobiling conditions are projected to diminish markedly, causing the snowmobile industry, which pumps an estimated $160 million into the Pennsylvania economy each winter, to all but disappear. As temperatures warm and snowmaking becomes increasingly difficult, Pennsylvania is no longer expected to support viable ski operations. 23. Pennsylvania generates ___1__ percent of global emissions. How does this compare to the United Kingdom which has five times more people? PA generates half as much as the UK 24. What percent of Pennsylvania’s total carbon dioxide emissions come from burning coal to generate electricity? over 40 percent of the state’s total CO2 emissions come from electricity generation 25. What is carbon capture and storage (CCS)? geologic sequestration, whereby CO2 emissions from power plants would be captured and then stored permanently underground 26. Where does Pennsylvania rank when compared to other nations of the world for carbon dioxide emissions? Pennsylvania’s emissions are so high that this single state ranks as the world’s twenty second largest emitter of CO2. 27. What are some economic downfalls of enacting emission reducing laws and regulations? Studies show that efforts to cut emissions to safe levels would cost between 1 and 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), while allowing climate change to proceed unabated would cost 10 to 20 percent of GDP. Page | 45 28. What are some things that we can do to help curb greenhouse gas emissions? (state several). Alternative energy, remove dependence on coal (solar and wind…) CCS Sustainable biomass Energy efficient building and upgrades Renewable/sustainable technology in building and upgrades Hydrogen fuel, biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol usage in transportation Grants, Loans and Tax credits to offer incentives Cost effective management in industries to re-direct money towards newer green technologies Partnerships with others states and federal government 29. Actions taken by Pennsylvania alone to combat climate change will not stabilize the climate. However, how can Pennsylvania have a significant role in responding to this global challenge? Be sure to explain your answer. Answers will vary but should mention something along the lines of the following: o Pennsylvanians have a new historic opportunity to set a national example of helping to protect the environment. o Pennsylvania can become a leader in technological, industrial, and political innovations that implement policies that drive national action to reduce emissions. Notes: The blank student worksheet for this activity is attached in the Appendix. Answers for this worksheet came from the article Climate Change Impacts and Solutions for Pennsylvania: How Today’s Actions Shape the State’s Future by the Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008. Page | 46 Data Analysis _________ 30 Points Use the graphs to most accurately answer the following questions. The following graph represents the average annual temperature at Shippensburg University, Pennsylvania from 1932 through 2014. Graph prepared by C. Pelow. Information obtained from Shippensburg University Geography and Earth Science Department. 1. Use the line of best fit to determine if there is a positive or negative correlation in temperature over the past 82 years at Shippensburg University. 2. a. List the two lowest average annual temperatures on the graph and their dates. b. List the two highest average annual temperatures on the graph and their dates. 3. According to the information in question 2, were the highest and lowest temperatures in the first half or second half of the century? 4. According to the line of best fit, how much has average temperature changed in the past 82 years at Shippensburg University? Page | 47 5. Hypothesize as to whether you think this temperature change is related to climate change or not? Explain your answer. The following graph represents annual precipitation at Shippensburg University, Pennsylvania from 1932 through 2014. Graph prepared by C. Pelow. Information obtained from Shippensburg University Geography and Earth Science Department. 6. According to the line of best fit, what is the trend in precipitation over the last 82 years? 7. According to the line of best fit, how much has annual precipitation changed over the past 82 years? 8. Do you think this trend is consistent with trends in the region? 9. Based on this trend, hypothesize how the trend may continue to affect Pennsylvania. Page | 48 The following graph represents peak discharge on the Susquehanna River in Harrisburg, PA. The graph represents each years’ peak discharge event from 1891-2013. Graph Prepared by C. Pelow. Information obtained from USGS at: http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/peak/?site_no=01570500 10. The chart above represents peak stream discharge for the Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, PA over a 122 year period. Two points significantly stand out over the others. Describe what event(s) occurred at these two marks? You may need to use the internet to research the answers. 11. Use the line of best fit to determine if there is a positive or negative correlation in peak discharge over the graph? 12. Much climate change data and models predict an increase in extreme storm events. Draw a line of best fit through the three (3) greatest peak discharge events. Describe the trend that is shown by this line and explain how it may be used to predict future weather in central Pennsylvania. Page | 49 13. This graph is the exact same graph as the one shown on the previous gage. When the graph is manipulated to look like this, although the numbers remain the same, does the graph look different? Explain your answer. 14. Does the graph look more convincing towards ones intended point of view? 15. Do you think graphs like this could be created to influence opinions? 16. Is this “bad science” or “good science”? Explain your answer. ______________________________________________ Graph prepared by C. Pelow. Information obtained from USGS at: http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/peak/?site_no=01570500 17. How might an increasing trend in stream discharge indicate that local climate might be changing? 18. How might a decreasing trend in stream discharge indicate that local climate might be changing? 19. Graphs can be an excellent resource for showing patterns. Graphs can be very conclusive in determining systematic trends. On the other hand, graphs can be made with intention to “skew” information to fit the creators intended purpose? Brainstorm and list several ways this can happen? Page | 50 The following graph represents maximum peak gage height on the Susquehanna River at Harrisburg, PA. The graph represents annual peak gage height from 1891-2013. Graph prepared by C. Pelow. Information obtained from USGS at: http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/peak/?site_no=01570500 20. Being as precise as possible, what were the three highest river heights over the past 122 years at Harrisburg in terms of gage height? 21. The flood stage on the Susquehanna River at Harrisburg is 17 feet. a. Use the graph to determine how many peak events were above flood stage? b. Using the information covered in class, could there be more than this many events above flood stage in Harrisburg over the past 122 years? Explain your answer. 22. The river is considered to be at “major flood stage” at 23 feet. When this occurs, significant evacuations are in order. According to the graph, how many times has the Susquehanna River reached major flood stage? Were there more of these events in the first or second half of the century? Page | 51 23. How does the line of best fit for gage height compare with that of the peak discharge line of best fit? 24. How might an increasing or decreasing trend in peak gage height be an indicator of climate change? 25. Looking at the graph, it appears to have an increasing frequency in higher gage height events. Hypothesize as to what this may mean in relation to climate change. 26. According to what you have learned about climate change, what would be more indicative to climate change, a trend in peak gage height or the frequency of extremes in peak gage height? Explain your answer. 27. Explain the possible relationship between long-term precipitation records and peak discharge. 28. It is possible to have a very high gage height and yet have a low peak discharge. Explain how this may occur. (Hint: Harrisburg, 1996) Page | 52 Conclusion Data analysis and discussion of results have been deliberately removed from this lesson planning project because significant analysis and discussion occurs after the lesson has been taught. The author of this project plans to run these lessons this school year in an Earth and Environmental Science class. Analysis will then be conducted to assess the effectiveness of the unit and if it reached its intended goals. Earth Science plays an essential role in our rapidly changing world. Basic knowledge of the Earth’s systems is essential to meeting some of the environmental challenges of our world. Every school district has a responsibility to teach students how the Earth works and how humans interact with its unique but interrelated systems. Understanding the cause and effect relationships as well as the societal consequences of the Earth’s natural or anthropogenicly influenced processes are of incredible importance because of the impact they have on almost every aspect of society. The nature of Earth Science helps high school students understand the connections and relevance of science to human lives both locally and globally. Earth Science is a subject where a person will most likely be negatively affected at some point in their life if they have not been adequately educated in the earth sciences. Climate change, although highly debated by some aspects of society, has been widely accepted in the scientific community and the scientific consensus more than points towards the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Every school district has a responsibility to their children and society to adequately cover the topic, facts, issues and misconceptions regarding climate change. Page | 53 References Cook, J, D. Nuccitelli, S.A. Green, M. Richardson, B. Winkler, R. Painting, R. Way, P. Jacobs and A. Skuce. 2013. Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Scientific Literature. Environmental Research Letters. v. 8, n. 2, p. 1. Daniel, J. Jacob. 1999. Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry: Chapter 7, The Greenhouse Effect. Princeton University Press. Accessed 7/25/2014 http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/people/faculty/djj/book/bookchap7.html Herzog, Timothy. July 2009. World Greenhouse Gas Emission in 2005. WRI Working Paper. Washington, DC, USA: World Resources Institute, p.2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System. Cambridge University Press. p. 2-3, 6, 10-11, 15. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Atmospheric Chemistry and Greenhouse Gases. Cambridge University Press. Accessed 7/22/2014. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/index.php?idp=127 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. Executive Summary. Cambridge University Press. Accessed 7/23/2014. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch9s9-es.html Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Section 2.4: Attribution of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Accessed 7/23/2014. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-4.html Kump, L. 2011. Accelerated Carbon Emission Rates. Futurist. v. 45, n. 5, p 4. Mercury: Facts & Figures. NASA. http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/profile.cfm?Object=Mercury&Display=Facts National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2014. Heat-Trapping Gas Concentrations Top 400 ppm, Two Months Earlier Than Last Year. Accessed 7/23/2014 Page | 54 http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/176 8/ArticleID/10490/Heat-trapping-gas-concentrations-top-400-ppm-two-monthsearlier-than-last-year.aspx National Research Council. Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2010. Oreskes, Naomi. 2004. The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Science. v. 306, n. 5702, p. 1686. Smil, Vaclav. 2003. The Earth's Biosphere: Evolution, Dynamics, and Change. MIT Press. p. 107. The National Academies Press. 2011. America's Climate Choices. Washington, D.C. p. 15. The Pennsylvania State University, submitted to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. 2013. Pennsylvania Climate Impacts Assessment Update. Accessed 7/23/2014 http://www.elibrary.dep.state.pa.us/dsweb/Get/Document97037/PA%20DEP%20Climate%20Impact%20Assessment%20Update.pdf Union of Concerned Scientists. 2008. Climate Change Impacts and Solutions for Pennsylvania: How Today’s Actions Shape the State’s Future. Accessed 7/22/2014 at http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/assets/ExecSummary_Climate-Change-in-Pennsylvania.pdf U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, A Student’s Guide to Global Climate Change. Accessed 7/24/2014 at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/students Venus: Facts and Figures. NASA. http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/planets/profile.cfm?Object=Venus&Display=Facts&S ystem=Metric Wihby, John. 2011) Structure of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change. Journalist’s Resource (Harvard Kennedy School). Accessed 7/25/2014. http://journalistsresource.org/studies/environment/climate-change/structurescientific-opinion-climate-change# Page | 55 Appendix Climate Change in Pennsylvania I __________ 10 Points For homework, you are going to read an article about the effects that climate change may have on Pennsylvania. Before reading the article, get in a small group with your classmates and answer the following questions. 1. The article you are about to read discusses the effects climate change may have on Pennsylvania. What are some things you think will most likely change regarding PA’s climate? 2. The article you about to read mentions “Climate change will only add to the state’s economic challenges while also dramatically altering many aspects of its economy, character, and quality of life.” 2a. List several specific ways climate change can have a negative impact on Pennsylvania’s economy. 2b. List several specific ways climate change can have a negative impact on Pennsylvanian’s quality of life. Page | 56 Climate Change in Pennsylvania II To complete this assignment, you will need to access the article ___________ 30 Points Climate Change Impacts and Solutions for Pennsylvania: How Today’s Actions Shape the State’s Future by the Union of Concerned Scientists. You can find this article on the internet using the URL below or you can find it on Mr. Pelow’s school webpage under “Forms”. http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/assets/Exec-Summary_Climate-Changein-Pennsylvania.pdf Once you have read the article, go back and answer the following questions in detail. 1. List 4 significant negative effects climate change could have on Pennsylvania. 2. If we follow the higher-emissions pathway, how will the quality of life for a child today be adversely affected? 3. Why can Pennsylvania be subdivided into two distinct climatic regions? 4. What part of Pennsylvania experiences the greatest extremes in temperature and rainfall? 5. Compared with the historic period (1961-1990), what climatic changes are expected? Page | 57 6. What are some things that Pennsylvania has already done to help reduce climate changing emissions? 7. What are some noticeable ways Pennsylvania’s climate has already begun to change over the past 100 years? 8. Compared with the historic period (1961-1990), what climatic changes are expected to occur by late century (2080-2099) if greenhouse emission remains high? 9. Under a lower-emissions future, how will the changes in the late century model be different as compared to the higher emission expectations? 10. Pennsylvania contributes what percent of the total global emissions of carbon dioxide? 11. What are the top three states in the nation for emitting greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels? 12. Even if we drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Pennsylvania’s temperature will continue to increase. List two reasons why temperatures will continue to rise. Page | 58 13. Answer the following questions according to the chart found on page 4. Harrisburg has how many days over 90oF from 1961-1990? How many extreme heat days does the article project Harrisburg to have From: 2010-2039: Low emission estimation: ________ High emission estimation: ________ From 2070-2099 Low emission estimation: ________ High emission estimation: ________ 14. Towards the end of the century, Harrisburg could potentially have how many days with temperatures over 100oF? 15. How could increased rainfall add to the challenges Pennsylvania might face? (list at least 3) 16. How could increased rainfall benefit Pennsylvania? 17. Agriculture is Pennsylvania’s #1 economic industry. How might an increase in temperature add to the challenges Pennsylvania could face? (list at least 6) Page | 59 18. List at least 5 adverse effects on humans as a result of climate change. 19. How could Pennsylvania’s native fish species be affected? 20. How could Pennsylvania’s native bird species be affected? 21. Pennsylvania is the nation’s leading producer of hardwoods. How many tree species are in PA? How many jobs in PA are associated with the forestry industry? How could Pennsylvania’s native tree species be affected? 22. How can winter recreation be negatively affected by climate change? Page | 60 23. Pennsylvania generates _____ percent of global emissions. How does this compare to the United Kingdom which has five times more people. 24. What percent of Pennsylvania’s total carbon dioxide emissions come from burning coal to generate electricity? 25. What is carbon capture and storage (CCS)? 26. Where does Pennsylvania rank when compared to other nations of the world for carbon dioxide emissions? 27. What are some economic downfalls of enacting emission reducing laws and regulations? 28. What are some things that we can do to help curb greenhouse gas emissions? (state several). 29. Actions taken by Pennsylvania alone to combat climate change will not stabilize the climate. However, do you think Pennsylvania can have a significant role responding to this global challenge? Be sure to explain your answer. Page | 61