UNIVERSITY OF IOWA Department of Statistics and Actuarial

advertisement
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science
STAT 1030
Statistics for Business
Spring 2015
Course Information
Overview We develop statistical methods of inductive reasoning to make the best-possible business
decisions based on available partial (sample) information. We rely on deductive (mathematical)
reasoning through Probability as a vital tool to help us achieve that goal.
STAT 1030 provides general education credit for quantitative and formal reasoning and is prerequisite for ECON 2800 Statistics for Strategy Problems.
Lecture 3:30–4:45 MW in Macbride Hall Auditorium
Main Stats Course Website (not ICON) http://www.stat.uiowa.edu/∼blake/stat1030
Instructor Blake Whitten Office: 261 Schaeffer Hall (319) 335-0647 blake-whitten@uiowa.edu
Prof. Whitten’s Office Hours: Monday 5:00–6:30 PM, Wednesday 6:30–8:00 PM
Lead TA Allie Bishop Office: 366 Schaeffer Hall (319) 335-0826 alexandria-bishop@uiowa.edu
Required Materials
• Course Packet from Zephyr Copies, 124 E. Washington, (319) 351-3500
($33.00 for two-Notebook bundle)
• Textbook: The Practice of Statistics for Business and Economics, 3nd Edition 2011 by
Moore. ISBN 978-1429-2425-30, UI Bookstore & Beat The Bookstore (Old Capitol Mall)
• Calculator: Any calculator is acceptable if it can produce one-variable statistics (sample
mean and standard deviation) from a set of numbers input as raw data.
∗ The Calculator Help link on the Main Stats Website supports the following models:
TI-83, TI-84, TI-89 Titanium, TI-30X II S, TI-BA II Plus, Casio FX-300 MS Plus,
HP-50g.
∗ Many other calculator models work great too, but you may need to google your calculator’s directions for “standard deviation” if not listed above.
∗ The TI-83, TI-84 and TI-89 are graphing calculators but graphing capability is not used
in Business Stats. Many Casio and other TI calculators work fine and are less expensive.
• MINITAB 17 Statistical Software: Available in 41 Schaefer Hall and other ITC locations
on campus
1
Course Features
Course Notes Are the Key!
• Course Notebooks are available from Zephyr Copies, 124 E. Washington downtown.
• Students complete the Course Notes by working examples in Macbride Hall lecture.
• If you miss class, get that day’s notes from any TA/Professor office hour or from a classmate.
How
To
Succeed
With
Stats
Homework
• Refer to Homework Directions and Due Dates in the Notebook. Work answers on
separate paper. (It helps to collect your Homework work in your own separate binder!) Check
answers with the Homework Solution online. (You may print the solution, if you wish.)
• Track your HW progress with this (highly recommended!) accounting system:
◦ CHECK OFF questions which you answer correctly. (These questions are completed!)
◦ CIRCLE questions which you miss or can’t finish without looking up the answer. Search
for help in Notebook examples, office hours, tutor labs, classmates, etc. Later RETURN
to each circled (missed) question and rework it as many times as necessary until you get
it right. Then you can check it off the list!
◦ Homework is not collected so one challenge you face is to be disciplined enough to do it
and check it on your own anyway. Instead, a quiz will be given in Discussion on
every homework due date.
Stats Assistance (Personalize your study routine with help from three sources)
• Statistics Department Tutorial Lab (graduate student tutors)
◦ Location: 1113 Red LIB (Main Library Learning Commons)
◦ Weekly tutoring schedule: http://www.stat.uiowa.edu/resources/tutoring
• SWAT Peer-To-Peer Tutoring (undergrad student tutors)
◦ Location: E120 AJB (Adler Journalism Building, next to main library)
◦ Schedule: Mondays–Wednesdays 5:30–8:00 PM
• Shared TA Office Hours – See any TA, not just your own! (see schedule on website)
Discussions • Weekly Quizzes Quizzes may cover any current or previous HW assignments as well as
anything discussed in lectures/Discussions in the course to date.
• Topic Worksheets, a boost for the next HW assignment (included in Notebooks)
• Help with MINITAB software
2
Quizzes
• Quizzes may cover any previous or current HW assignments as well as anything discussed
in lectures/Discussions in the course to date. (This format provides the best-possible exam
preparation.)
• Discussion Quizzes are time-sensitive so as a practical matter makeup quizzes are not given.
Instead, and as an explicit allowance for necessary absence (university-sanctioned events, illness, family emergency, etc.) the lowest 2 quiz scores are dropped from the calculation of
the course grade.
• If you do miss a quiz, we recommend that you pick up an extra copy from your TA to work
as practice for the next exam. (The solution to your section’s quiz version is always
posted on ICON.)
• We’ll also use Practice Quizzes (not for credit) in Macbride lectures to help prep for exams.
Exams • Exams are multiple-choice and closed-book. Three 90-minute midterm exams are given Thursday evenings (see Course Schedule), in addition to a (comprehensive) final exam.
◦ Students may use one standard sheet of paper (8.500 by 1100 ), front and back, of
handwritten or word-processed formulas and notes on each midterm exam. (Please
make your own formula sheets.) Use of more than one sheet (even two sheets
taped or stapled together) is a violation of the Stats Honor Code and is
considered cheating.
◦ For the final exam students may use four standard sheets of paper, front and back.
(Keep your midterm-exam formula sheets to reuse on final exam.)
• Midterm Exam Locations: You must attend your exam location to earn exam credit.
Location
◦ C20 PC
Sections
A1 –A7
◦ W10 PBB
A8 –A13
◦ W128 CB
A14 , A15
◦ W290 CB
A16 –A19
• Midterm Replacement Policy: If the final exam score exceeds at least one of the midterm
exam scores, then the single lowest midterm score is replaced by the final exam score (at most
one replacement) in the calculation of the course grade.
• For makeup exam requests, students must provide verifiable written documentation of a
university-approved absence to lead TA Allie Bishop in person during Allie’s office hours.
• Experience shows that taking exams on schedule is vital to Stats success! All
students commit to the published exam schedule upon enrollment. Special makeup
exams are available for illness, religious observance, and for NCAA athletic competition.
(Contact lead TA.) Makeup exams are not available for other reasons, including
student org field trips, club competitions and personal events. You still have the
option to miss an exam, in which case the missing score is automatically replaced
by the Final Exam Score as per the Replacement Policy in previous paragraph.
3
MINITAB Reports
• Students complete MINITAB assignments (and submit reports) during the semester. (These
are independent of weekly HW assignments.) Frequency and due dates to be announced.
• MINITAB greatly simplifies some statistical calculations and graphs. Students who become
business majors and take the subsequent course ECON 2800 (Stats for Strategy) will enjoy a
competitive advantage since that course uses MINITAB extensively.
Course
Grades
Students earn grades in STAT 1030 as described below.
• Weights for course percentage:
5%
5%
15%
15%
15%
15%
30%
100%
Discussion
Minitab
Quizzes
Exam 1
Exam 2
Exam 3
Final Exam
• Calculate the course percentage:
1. Drop your two lowest Quiz scores before calculating your Quiz percentage.
2. Calculate MINITAB percentage based on total MINITAB points available.
3. Replace your lowest Midterm Exam score with your Final Exam score only if such
replacement improves your score (at most one such replacement.)
4. Now calculate as follows:
Course % = (0.05)(Discussion) + (0.05)(Minitab) + (0.15)(Quiz) + (0.15)(Mid 1) + (0.15)(Mid 2)
+ (0.15)(Mid 3) + (0.30)(Final)
• Course grades are earned according to the following minimum course percentage:
A
B
C
D
F
92%
A−
82%
B−
72%
C−
62%
D−
Below 60%
90%
80%
70%
60%
B+
C+
D+
88%
78%
68%
For example, a course percentage of 87.9999% earns a grade of B in STAT 1030.
(All students earn grades on the same scale, without exception.)
4
Macbride Hall Lecture Schedule
Week
1
Lecture
−
1
Day
Mon
Wed
Date
Jan. 19
Jan. 21
Subject
Topic 1: Six Steps of Inference
2
2
3
Mon
Wed
Jan. 26
Jan. 28
Topic 1
Topic 2: Describing Sample Data
3
4
5
Mon
Wed
Feb. 2
Feb. 4
Topic 2
Topic 3: Probability
4
6
7
Mon
Wed
Feb. 9
Feb. 11
Topic 3
Topic 3
5
8
9
Mon
Wed
Feb. 16
Feb. 18
Exam 1 Practice Questions
Topic 4: Random Variables
Midterm Exam 1: Thursday, Feb. 19 8:45 - 10:15 p.m. (Covers Topics 1–3)
6
10
11
Mon
Wed
Feb. 23
Feb. 25
Topic 4
Topic 5: Continuous Distributions
7
12
13
Mon
Wed
March 2
March 4
Topic 5
Topic 6: Sampling Distributions
8
14
15
Mon
Wed
March 9
March 11
Topic 6
Topic 6
9
−
−
Mon
Wed
March 16
March 18
(Spring Break)
10
16
17
Mon
Wed
March 23
March 25
Exam 2 Practice Questions
Exam 2 Prep Worksheet
Midterm Exam 2: Thursday, March 26 8:45 - 10:15 p.m. (Covers Topics 4–6)
11
18
19
Mon
Wed
March 30
April 1
Topic 7: Confidence Intervals
Topic 7, Topic 8: Hypothesis Testing
12
20
21
Mon
Wed
April 6
April 8
Topic 8
Topic 8
13
22
23
Mon
Wed
April 13
April 15
Exam 3 Practice Questions
Topic 9: Comparing Two Proportions
Midterm Exam 3: Thursday, April 16 8:45 - 10:15 p.m. (Covers Topics 7–8)
14
24
25
Mon
Wed
April 20
April 22
Topic 10: Correlation, Regression, and Stock Portfolios
Topic 10
15
26
27
Mon
Wed
April 27
April 29
Topic 10
Topic 10
16
28
29
Mon
Wed
May 4
May 6
Course Overview, Final Exam Practice Sheet
Final Exam Q/A Session
Final Exam: (to be announced by the fifth week of classes)
5
Homework Scheduler & Tuesday Discussion Due Dates
Homework
Assignment
Discussion
Due Date
Topics Covered
Comments
1
Jan. 27
Topic 1: Six Steps of Inference
Write and think carefully! Refer to diagrams.
2
Feb. 3
Topic 1, Topic 2: Describing Data
3
Feb. 10
Topic 3: Probability
Covers unconditional probability
4
Feb. 17
Topic 3
Covers conditional probability
(Exam 1 Thursday, Feb. 19)
5
Feb. 24
Topic 4: Discrete Random Variables
Covers mean or expected value
6
March 3
Topic 4
Covers variance, standard deviation, Binomial
7
March 10
Topic 5: Continuous Distributions
Uniform and Normal probabilities
8
March 24
Topic 6: Sampling Distributions
Finish homework before Spring Break starts!
(Exam 2 Thursday, March 26)
9
April 7
Topic 7: Confidence Intervals
Long assignment, start early!
10
April 14
Topic 8: Hypothesis Tests
Long assignment, start early!
(Exam 3 Thursday, April 16)
11
April 28
Topic 10: Correlation and Regression
First regression assignment
12
May 5
Topic 10
Second regression assignment
Administrative Notes
Honor Code Course policies are governed by the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. Cheating in
STAT 1030 is unethical and unfairly punishes honest students. Cheating includes, but is not limited to,
copying or communicating with other students during quizzes or exams, and unauthorized use of notes,
computer files, or other study aids. Cheating can result in score of 0 on quiz, exam or project,
loss of midterm-exam score replacement privilege, loss of one course letter grade, failing the
course. All cheating cases are referred to the College for further action.
Disabilities Please see me as soon as possible (after class or during office hours) if you have any disabilities
for which alternative arrangements for lectures or exams should be made. Student Disability Services (located
in Burge Hall) directs such arrangements at UI and also welcomes student inquiries.
Sexual Harassment The College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the University of Iowa are committed
to providing students with an environment free from sexual harassment. If you feel that you are being or
have been harassed or you are not sure what constitutes sexual harassment, we encourage you to visit
the University website, http://www.sexualharassment.uiowa.edu/index.php, and to seek assistance from
department chairs, the Dean’s Office, the University Ombuds Office, or the Office of Equal Opportunity
and Diversity.
Department Chair Joseph Lang, 241 Schaeffer Hall, 335-0712, joseph-lang@uiowa.edu
6
Download