UNIVERSITY OF IOWA Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science STAT 1030 Statistics for Business Spring 2015 Course Information Overview We develop statistical methods of inductive reasoning to make the best-possible business decisions based on available partial (sample) information. We rely on deductive (mathematical) reasoning through Probability as a vital tool to help us achieve that goal. STAT 1030 provides general education credit for quantitative and formal reasoning and is prerequisite for ECON 2800 Statistics for Strategy Problems. Lecture 3:30–4:45 MW in Macbride Hall Auditorium Main Stats Course Website (not ICON) http://www.stat.uiowa.edu/∼blake/stat1030 Instructor Blake Whitten Office: 261 Schaeffer Hall (319) 335-0647 blake-whitten@uiowa.edu Prof. Whitten’s Office Hours: Monday 5:00–6:30 PM, Wednesday 6:30–8:00 PM Lead TA Allie Bishop Office: 366 Schaeffer Hall (319) 335-0826 alexandria-bishop@uiowa.edu Required Materials • Course Packet from Zephyr Copies, 124 E. Washington, (319) 351-3500 ($33.00 for two-Notebook bundle) • Textbook: The Practice of Statistics for Business and Economics, 3nd Edition 2011 by Moore. ISBN 978-1429-2425-30, UI Bookstore & Beat The Bookstore (Old Capitol Mall) • Calculator: Any calculator is acceptable if it can produce one-variable statistics (sample mean and standard deviation) from a set of numbers input as raw data. ∗ The Calculator Help link on the Main Stats Website supports the following models: TI-83, TI-84, TI-89 Titanium, TI-30X II S, TI-BA II Plus, Casio FX-300 MS Plus, HP-50g. ∗ Many other calculator models work great too, but you may need to google your calculator’s directions for “standard deviation” if not listed above. ∗ The TI-83, TI-84 and TI-89 are graphing calculators but graphing capability is not used in Business Stats. Many Casio and other TI calculators work fine and are less expensive. • MINITAB 17 Statistical Software: Available in 41 Schaefer Hall and other ITC locations on campus 1 Course Features Course Notes Are the Key! • Course Notebooks are available from Zephyr Copies, 124 E. Washington downtown. • Students complete the Course Notes by working examples in Macbride Hall lecture. • If you miss class, get that day’s notes from any TA/Professor office hour or from a classmate. How To Succeed With Stats Homework • Refer to Homework Directions and Due Dates in the Notebook. Work answers on separate paper. (It helps to collect your Homework work in your own separate binder!) Check answers with the Homework Solution online. (You may print the solution, if you wish.) • Track your HW progress with this (highly recommended!) accounting system: ◦ CHECK OFF questions which you answer correctly. (These questions are completed!) ◦ CIRCLE questions which you miss or can’t finish without looking up the answer. Search for help in Notebook examples, office hours, tutor labs, classmates, etc. Later RETURN to each circled (missed) question and rework it as many times as necessary until you get it right. Then you can check it off the list! ◦ Homework is not collected so one challenge you face is to be disciplined enough to do it and check it on your own anyway. Instead, a quiz will be given in Discussion on every homework due date. Stats Assistance (Personalize your study routine with help from three sources) • Statistics Department Tutorial Lab (graduate student tutors) ◦ Location: 1113 Red LIB (Main Library Learning Commons) ◦ Weekly tutoring schedule: http://www.stat.uiowa.edu/resources/tutoring • SWAT Peer-To-Peer Tutoring (undergrad student tutors) ◦ Location: E120 AJB (Adler Journalism Building, next to main library) ◦ Schedule: Mondays–Wednesdays 5:30–8:00 PM • Shared TA Office Hours – See any TA, not just your own! (see schedule on website) Discussions • Weekly Quizzes Quizzes may cover any current or previous HW assignments as well as anything discussed in lectures/Discussions in the course to date. • Topic Worksheets, a boost for the next HW assignment (included in Notebooks) • Help with MINITAB software 2 Quizzes • Quizzes may cover any previous or current HW assignments as well as anything discussed in lectures/Discussions in the course to date. (This format provides the best-possible exam preparation.) • Discussion Quizzes are time-sensitive so as a practical matter makeup quizzes are not given. Instead, and as an explicit allowance for necessary absence (university-sanctioned events, illness, family emergency, etc.) the lowest 2 quiz scores are dropped from the calculation of the course grade. • If you do miss a quiz, we recommend that you pick up an extra copy from your TA to work as practice for the next exam. (The solution to your section’s quiz version is always posted on ICON.) • We’ll also use Practice Quizzes (not for credit) in Macbride lectures to help prep for exams. Exams • Exams are multiple-choice and closed-book. Three 90-minute midterm exams are given Thursday evenings (see Course Schedule), in addition to a (comprehensive) final exam. ◦ Students may use one standard sheet of paper (8.500 by 1100 ), front and back, of handwritten or word-processed formulas and notes on each midterm exam. (Please make your own formula sheets.) Use of more than one sheet (even two sheets taped or stapled together) is a violation of the Stats Honor Code and is considered cheating. ◦ For the final exam students may use four standard sheets of paper, front and back. (Keep your midterm-exam formula sheets to reuse on final exam.) • Midterm Exam Locations: You must attend your exam location to earn exam credit. Location ◦ C20 PC Sections A1 –A7 ◦ W10 PBB A8 –A13 ◦ W128 CB A14 , A15 ◦ W290 CB A16 –A19 • Midterm Replacement Policy: If the final exam score exceeds at least one of the midterm exam scores, then the single lowest midterm score is replaced by the final exam score (at most one replacement) in the calculation of the course grade. • For makeup exam requests, students must provide verifiable written documentation of a university-approved absence to lead TA Allie Bishop in person during Allie’s office hours. • Experience shows that taking exams on schedule is vital to Stats success! All students commit to the published exam schedule upon enrollment. Special makeup exams are available for illness, religious observance, and for NCAA athletic competition. (Contact lead TA.) Makeup exams are not available for other reasons, including student org field trips, club competitions and personal events. You still have the option to miss an exam, in which case the missing score is automatically replaced by the Final Exam Score as per the Replacement Policy in previous paragraph. 3 MINITAB Reports • Students complete MINITAB assignments (and submit reports) during the semester. (These are independent of weekly HW assignments.) Frequency and due dates to be announced. • MINITAB greatly simplifies some statistical calculations and graphs. Students who become business majors and take the subsequent course ECON 2800 (Stats for Strategy) will enjoy a competitive advantage since that course uses MINITAB extensively. Course Grades Students earn grades in STAT 1030 as described below. • Weights for course percentage: 5% 5% 15% 15% 15% 15% 30% 100% Discussion Minitab Quizzes Exam 1 Exam 2 Exam 3 Final Exam • Calculate the course percentage: 1. Drop your two lowest Quiz scores before calculating your Quiz percentage. 2. Calculate MINITAB percentage based on total MINITAB points available. 3. Replace your lowest Midterm Exam score with your Final Exam score only if such replacement improves your score (at most one such replacement.) 4. Now calculate as follows: Course % = (0.05)(Discussion) + (0.05)(Minitab) + (0.15)(Quiz) + (0.15)(Mid 1) + (0.15)(Mid 2) + (0.15)(Mid 3) + (0.30)(Final) • Course grades are earned according to the following minimum course percentage: A B C D F 92% A− 82% B− 72% C− 62% D− Below 60% 90% 80% 70% 60% B+ C+ D+ 88% 78% 68% For example, a course percentage of 87.9999% earns a grade of B in STAT 1030. (All students earn grades on the same scale, without exception.) 4 Macbride Hall Lecture Schedule Week 1 Lecture − 1 Day Mon Wed Date Jan. 19 Jan. 21 Subject Topic 1: Six Steps of Inference 2 2 3 Mon Wed Jan. 26 Jan. 28 Topic 1 Topic 2: Describing Sample Data 3 4 5 Mon Wed Feb. 2 Feb. 4 Topic 2 Topic 3: Probability 4 6 7 Mon Wed Feb. 9 Feb. 11 Topic 3 Topic 3 5 8 9 Mon Wed Feb. 16 Feb. 18 Exam 1 Practice Questions Topic 4: Random Variables Midterm Exam 1: Thursday, Feb. 19 8:45 - 10:15 p.m. (Covers Topics 1–3) 6 10 11 Mon Wed Feb. 23 Feb. 25 Topic 4 Topic 5: Continuous Distributions 7 12 13 Mon Wed March 2 March 4 Topic 5 Topic 6: Sampling Distributions 8 14 15 Mon Wed March 9 March 11 Topic 6 Topic 6 9 − − Mon Wed March 16 March 18 (Spring Break) 10 16 17 Mon Wed March 23 March 25 Exam 2 Practice Questions Exam 2 Prep Worksheet Midterm Exam 2: Thursday, March 26 8:45 - 10:15 p.m. (Covers Topics 4–6) 11 18 19 Mon Wed March 30 April 1 Topic 7: Confidence Intervals Topic 7, Topic 8: Hypothesis Testing 12 20 21 Mon Wed April 6 April 8 Topic 8 Topic 8 13 22 23 Mon Wed April 13 April 15 Exam 3 Practice Questions Topic 9: Comparing Two Proportions Midterm Exam 3: Thursday, April 16 8:45 - 10:15 p.m. (Covers Topics 7–8) 14 24 25 Mon Wed April 20 April 22 Topic 10: Correlation, Regression, and Stock Portfolios Topic 10 15 26 27 Mon Wed April 27 April 29 Topic 10 Topic 10 16 28 29 Mon Wed May 4 May 6 Course Overview, Final Exam Practice Sheet Final Exam Q/A Session Final Exam: (to be announced by the fifth week of classes) 5 Homework Scheduler & Tuesday Discussion Due Dates Homework Assignment Discussion Due Date Topics Covered Comments 1 Jan. 27 Topic 1: Six Steps of Inference Write and think carefully! Refer to diagrams. 2 Feb. 3 Topic 1, Topic 2: Describing Data 3 Feb. 10 Topic 3: Probability Covers unconditional probability 4 Feb. 17 Topic 3 Covers conditional probability (Exam 1 Thursday, Feb. 19) 5 Feb. 24 Topic 4: Discrete Random Variables Covers mean or expected value 6 March 3 Topic 4 Covers variance, standard deviation, Binomial 7 March 10 Topic 5: Continuous Distributions Uniform and Normal probabilities 8 March 24 Topic 6: Sampling Distributions Finish homework before Spring Break starts! (Exam 2 Thursday, March 26) 9 April 7 Topic 7: Confidence Intervals Long assignment, start early! 10 April 14 Topic 8: Hypothesis Tests Long assignment, start early! (Exam 3 Thursday, April 16) 11 April 28 Topic 10: Correlation and Regression First regression assignment 12 May 5 Topic 10 Second regression assignment Administrative Notes Honor Code Course policies are governed by the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. Cheating in STAT 1030 is unethical and unfairly punishes honest students. Cheating includes, but is not limited to, copying or communicating with other students during quizzes or exams, and unauthorized use of notes, computer files, or other study aids. Cheating can result in score of 0 on quiz, exam or project, loss of midterm-exam score replacement privilege, loss of one course letter grade, failing the course. All cheating cases are referred to the College for further action. Disabilities Please see me as soon as possible (after class or during office hours) if you have any disabilities for which alternative arrangements for lectures or exams should be made. Student Disability Services (located in Burge Hall) directs such arrangements at UI and also welcomes student inquiries. Sexual Harassment The College of Liberal Arts and Sciences and the University of Iowa are committed to providing students with an environment free from sexual harassment. If you feel that you are being or have been harassed or you are not sure what constitutes sexual harassment, we encourage you to visit the University website, http://www.sexualharassment.uiowa.edu/index.php, and to seek assistance from department chairs, the Dean’s Office, the University Ombuds Office, or the Office of Equal Opportunity and Diversity. Department Chair Joseph Lang, 241 Schaeffer Hall, 335-0712, joseph-lang@uiowa.edu 6