1st Prism User Group Conference 2006 – Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Seven Suggestions
to
Successfully Deliver Your Cost Estimate
Case Study
Processing Aspen Kbase™ Data for Load into ARES Prism™ Project Manager
Robert B. Fookes, M.Sc., P.Eng.
TriGem Technology Ltd
September, 2006
Copyright © 2006 TriGem Technology Ltd
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Seven Suggestions to Successfully Deliver Your Cost Estimate
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Abstract
Seven Suggestions to Successfully Deliver Your Cost Estimate discusses several key points that
address fundamental information management principles that will help with your estimating effort.
A case study Processing AspenTech Kbase™ Data for Load into ARES Prism™ Project Manager
illustrates each of these key principles, and a system comprised of three software applications
demonstrates one possible data processing model that could be used to manage your Kbase™
estimating information on any size project. A detailed progression through the work flow is given,
and some of the benefits of using software tools for data processing are highlighted. Clearly it is
possible to process data more effectively with sound processes and capable tools. Data model and
process consistency provides for predictable results, and the use of enterprise software systems
deployed as part of a larger solution can result in significant workflow advantages for your
organization.
This paper is geared toward senior cost estimators, cost estimating leads and estimating, cost
control and project control managers. IS/IT support personnel will also benefit from the case
study.
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Acknowledgements
I would like to acknowledge some special people who took the time to discuss many of the issues
surrounding estimating, project controls and information management to name a few. I appreciate
the input throughout this creative process, and as I wrote the document I realized how valuable the
feedback was during its development.
•
Kevin R. Rowe
Manager, Project Management Services
ARES Corporation
•
Ross Kelman
On-Track Projects Inc.
•
John P. Holgate, P.Eng.
Proactive Technologies International, Inc.
Not only do I consider each of them a friend and colleague, I consider them all mentors and thank
them for their contributions and ongoing support.
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Table of Contents
1. Seven Suggestions to Successfully Deliver Your Cost Estimate
…5
Effective Data Processing
1.1 Consistent Coding
1.2 Naming Conventions
1.3 Structured Data
1.4 Single Source of Data
1.5 Defined Processes
1.6 Separate Data and Presentation
1.7 Think Quality
…5
…6
…6
…7
…7
…8
…8
2. Case Study
…9
Processing Aspen Kbase™ Data for Load into ARES Prism™ Project Manager
2.1 Problem
2.2 Software Tools
2.3 Data Management
2.4 Workflow
2.5 Solution
2.6 Results
2.7 Interpretation
2.8 Case Study Review of the Seven Suggestions
2.9 Conclusions
… 9
… 9
… 11
… 11
… 14
… 15
… 15
… 16
… 16
3. Benefits of Using Software Tools for Data Processing
… 17
4. References
… 18
5. Acronyms
… 19
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1. Seven Suggestions to Successfully Deliver Your Cost Estimate
Effective Data Processing
Seven Suggestions
If you find it difficult to consolidate estimating data that is
developed in multiple formats, a disciplined approach to data
processing may be the solution you are looking for. While there are
many reasons why we struggle when it comes time to rollup
multiple datasets into a common format, ranging from technology,
to process, to people, there are steps that can be taken to improve
efficiency and create value both internally and for clients.
Organizations often use templates that develop some data
consistency, but a more disciplined approach to the entire
estimating process is required. The seven suggestions described
below address some key areas where significant benefits can be
realized. A case study, Processing Aspen Kbase™ Data for Load
into Prism™ Project Manager, illustrates these benefits.
Suggestions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
1.1 Consistent Coding
Early definition of WBS and
COA is crucial.
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Consistent Coding
Naming Conventions
Structured Data
Single Source of Data
Defined Processes
Separate Data and Presentation
Think Quality
1. A key element to the success of any estimating effort is
early definition of the work breakdown structure (WBS) and
code of accounts (COA). This crucial step is often not given
adequate attention up front and coding is sometimes left to
be done while work progresses or even after it is complete.
The WBS which is hierarchical by nature establishes the
physical work packages (scope) and their activities
(deliverables) that completely define the project. The COA
is the logical breakout of the project into like elements (e.g.
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labour, equipment, materials and services) that are used to
consistently compile quantity and cost data across WBS
items for summarization at progressively higher WBS
levels. The WBS and COA provide a consistent
organization of the data throughout the project life and
should be developed early in the process.
1.2 Naming
Conventions
Consistent naming improves the
quality of your data.
1.3 Structured Data
Well-structured data creates
value for your organization.
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2. Naming conventions make data more understandable by
making it easier to read. The goal is to improve readability
and thereby the understanding, the maintainability and the
general quality of the data. A naming convention is a
collection of rules, which, when applied to data, results in a
set of data elements named in a logical and standardized
way. The naming system determines the syntax that the
element must follow, and this syntax is sometimes called the
naming convention. Developing a naming scheme for the
directory structure on your project, for example, can
potentially save many hours by making it easier for the
members of the project team to find documents. This idea
can be extended to the datasets themselves where consistent
naming allows the information to be filtered and sorted into
more meaningful result sets. Many conventions already
exist in the literature and choosing one is a matter of
preference. If you choose to develop your own, remember
consistency is the key.
3. Structured data allows for ease of consolidation, analysis
and reporting. Spreadsheets that are formatted so they print
in a legible format are very often developed without any
consideration for structure. Ideally a single source of data
(see 4 below) should exist, and presentation or reporting of
this data can be developed early in the process. With wellstructured data and clearly defined business processes
output is easily generated using predefined reporting
templates, and data mining across multiple structured
datasets can be done to create additional value-added
datasets. System integration efforts are made easier when
the data to be mapped or translated is organized and
structured in a consistent format. It is also important to
document the data’s metadata which captures the meaning
and context of the underlying data. Metadata provides the
context for the structured data, and through the use of
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powerful search engines it allows your organization to
access and better interpret its information assets. Document
management systems include some type of information card
that captures the document’s metadata. An example of
metadata can be seen in Excel® by opening a workbook,
selecting the File-Properties menu item and viewing the
Summary tab. This information is accessible through the
BuiltinDocumentProperties component object model
(COM) interface.
1.4 Single Source of
Data
A single data source ensures
data consistency.
1.5 Defined Processes
Automating workflows improve
efficiency.
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4. Creating a single data source for your estimate output is an
important concept that cannot be over-emphasized, and
through proper information management strategy it ensures
data consistency, reliability and security. Centralized data
and systems that work on the data (i.e. search engines) are
able to keep up with the dynamic nature of data needs and
requirements. People copy files to do some work and
inevitably multiple versions of the same data exist.
Document management systems are designed to address this
problem through single point access and file versioning,
however, there is training required and dedicated use of the
system to realize the full benefits. A single source of data
eliminates duplication of data and saves time working the
data reconciliation problem that often follows. Your data is
central to your operation, and understanding its true value
and relevance and putting it to work for the benefit of the
organization is crucial. Applied basic data management
principles, such as the single source of data, will save
countless hours of work understanding what the true state of
your information is, and further a valuable historical record
is developed over time.
5. Defined processes or business intelligence (BI) transform
raw data using workflows into usable formats for reporting
and analysis. A workflow is simply a description of
everything that needs to occur to complete each step in a
business process. Most organizations have workflows or
instructions on how to carry out a task, and automating
workflows that are repetitive in nature streamline the
process enhancing overall efficiency and thus reducing the
effort required to complete a particular assignment. By
improving internal efficiencies tasks are completed sooner
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in a consistent manner thus making your organization more
responsive. When developing business processes it is
important to focus your efforts on the business logic of what
users need to accomplish, not on how the tool works.
1.6 Separate Data and
Presentation
Data should be separated from
other processes.
1.7 Think Quality
Quality should be built into all
processes.
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6. Data, business logic and presentation are the well-accepted
logical layers which are used in the development of complex
data-driven systems, and these principles can be used when
developing any large set of data. Data creation and the
presentation of this data are fundamentally different issues,
and their proper separation is a key when developing large
complex cost estimates because of the shear volume of data
that needs to be managed. By separating data from the other
layers future data-mining can be done and other corporate
information assets can be developed using new business
processes that utilize multiple large estimate datasets. Data
integration layers further consolidate disparate datasets to
provide even greater value because information can be
consumed at a higher-level with broader context. Consistent
format in the presentation of the data is accomplished by
clearly defining the reporting layout to be used for the
project. A variety of reports that summarize the data at
progressively higher levels should be developed, and report
consistency makes the information more understandable.
7. Data entry is often blamed for data-quality problems, and
everyone seems to blame their quality woes on the systems
they use. Although some of this may be true, a significant
part of the quality issue is the lack of data consistency as
well as the timeliness and relevancy of the data. Valuable
datasets are generated by building quality processes into the
data creation, processing and reporting steps, and all
members of the team need to take responsibility for the
development of these assets. Maintenance of your
estimating data is important in order to preserve current as
well as historical data. You can think of this as all part of
quality and carefully-considered data procedures must be in
place. Someone with senior-level experience in the data
management field is a valuable addition to any estimating
team and this individual can provide guidance and support
to improve the overall quality of the process and ultimately
the final estimate dataset.
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2. Case Study
Processing Aspen Kbase™ Data for Load into ARES Prism™ Project Manager
2.1 Problem
Developing large cost estimates using Aspen Kbase™ is often done by breaking the project into
smaller manageable pieces using the work breakdown structure (WBS). This approach allows for
focussed work by members of the cost estimating team, and although sound it does create the data
consolidation problem when more than a single Kbase™ project file needs to be rolled up,
analyzed, modified and ultimately formatted for load into ARES Prism™ Project Estimator (PPE)
or Prism™ Project Manager (PPM).
2.2 Software Tools
Three commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) software applications form the basis of the system
solution, and each package is described below.
Aspen Kbase™ (formerly ICARUS 2000) is Aspen Technology's flagship estimation tool. It is
built on Aspen Icarus™ technology and is a fully integrated design, estimating, and scheduling
system used to help evaluate the capital cost of process plants quickly in the early stage of the
project life cycle. With as little information as a sized equipment list and general organization of
the project, experienced estimators, working with key engineering discipline people, can
effectively use Kbase™ to develop a complete and detailed engineering, procurement, and
construction estimate and schedule.
The system includes sophisticated models and a comprehensive database which are based on
industry-standard design codes and construction practices. Aspen Kbase™ (ICARUS 2000®) uses
these built-in algorithms for design, estimating and scheduling procedures to automatically
perform mechanical designs for equipment and bulks, so you have the detailed answers you need
at the early stages of engineering.
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ARES Prism™ Project Manager is an Earned Value Management System (EVMS) designed and
developed by professional project managers and project controls engineers and is suitable for all
sizes and types of projects in virtually all industries. With Prism™ Project Manager you can plan,
budget and control a project through all project phases including proposal, planning, engineering,
procurement, construction, startup, and operations.
Prism™ Project Manager is a collection of integrated project management software applications
designed to help project managers:
•
•
•
•
•
Reduce Project Risk by providing critical project information needed for corrective action
decision making in a timely manner,
Provide Earned Value reporting required by government agencies,
Achieve Cost/Schedule Integration with project planning data through seamless
integrations with Primavera Project Manager© and Microsoft Project©,
Reduce project costs by approximately 5% to 10% by providing single source data entry
and data integrity.
Easily integrate actual and committed financial/accounting data with project budget data
for timely forecasting and reporting.
TriGem Technology KbProc™ (Knowledge Based Processing) is a data processing system
designed to consolidate Kbase™ user databases and process the information according to user
specified business rules. Analysis capabilities (comparative, metrics and risk), MTO dumps
(piping, valves and other) and a comprehensive export of all estimate data to Excel® for direct
load into Prism™ Project Manager is built into the system.
When a project has been created and an estimate has been fully configured in the system (i.e. COA
mapping, processing logic, metrics, etc) the settings can be re-used for each version of the estimate
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thus ensuring a consistent baseline to make comparisons meaningful. The KbProc™ technology is
designed to specifically address the Kbase™ project data consolidation challenges and to provide
a unified data processing model that promotes data consistency and reliability. The KbProc
software tool is the interface between Kbase™ and Prism™ Project Manager. Figure 1 illustrates
the relationship between the three software tools that make up the solution in this case study.
Kbase™
KbProc™
Prism™
Figure 1 – Relationship Between Software Tools
2.3 Data Management
The Kbase™ estimating package is a file-based system that requires proper file management. A
well thought out directory structure where all versions of the estimating data reside is essential,
and basic data management policies should be established so that a complete file backup is done at
least daily. During times when the pace of data input is significant more frequent backups should
be done to ensure minimal loss of information in the event of a complete system failure.
In large organizations both KbProc™ and Prism™ Project Manager are deployed as enterprise
solutions with all data being stored and managed in a corporate SQL Server database for data
integrity and security. The estimating and cost data is maintained by the in-house database
administrator (DBA), and this single source of data is managed according to corporate procedures
in order to achieve corporate goals.
2.4 Workflow
Aspen Kbase™
The estimate is created in Kbase™ as a single project organized by areas and possibly sub-areas or
as a set of project files with meaningful structure that allows the estimating team to develop the
baseline dataset. When this work is complete the user databases are exported from each Kbase™
project file, and the exported Microsoft® Access files are loaded into KbProc™ for additional
processing.
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TriGem KbProc™
A project file is created in KbProc™ and the COA mapping database is loaded into the system.
This COA mapping is created only once and each estimate that is created within the project uses
the information. It is within this set of data all Kbase™ codes are mapped to your corporate COA.
Data processing rules are specified within KbProc™, and other costs whether they are input
directly or are a functional relationship of other data elements are specified in the system. The
ability to functionally specify costs that are calculated based on Kbase™ direct cost data provides
a powerful capability that enforces the defined relationship between certain data (e.g. electrical
freight is 3% of the electrical material cost). These costs which are input and grouped at the
estimate level optionally can be distributed to one or more of the individual user databases.
The user database that is exported from Kbase™ outputs the direct cost data as either a labour or
material cost. The KbProc™ system allows the estimator the flexibility to move costs to other predefined cost elements, for example, move all the civil labour and material costs to subcontract.
Any number of cost elements can be specified in the system, and explicit data blocks can be
assigned to these user defined cost elements.
KbProc™ includes a metric measurement and analysis capability that allows the user to define the
exact metric they are interested in calculating. These key indicators highlight areas of the estimate
that need to be focussed on and provide valuable information during the development and review
of the estimate. The metrics that are developed offer a basis for comparison as the estimate
evolves and form part of the historical record.
Detailed code of account or summary level comparisons can be done within the system at the
estimate or database level, and at any time during the development of the estimate a Monte Carlo
simulation can be performed on the cost model to generate a frequency distribution histogram and
cumulative probability distribution. The current calculated estimate forms the basis of the cost
model, and the user is required to input a labour and material range for each of the major Kbase™
groups (equipment, piping, civil, steel, instrumentation, electrical, insulation, painting) as well as
for the other costs. The risk analysis algorithm takes the user input number of iterations and based
on a uniform probability distribution randomly generates and collects values for the variables over
and over to simulate the model and create both tabular and graphical results. Major group cost
sensitivities and statistical information is generated as well, and contingency calculations are done
that allow the estimator to quickly identify the 50/50 point and determine confidence intervals.
The availability of metrics, the use of the comparison utility and the ability to perform cost risk
analysis all add to the confidence you have in the estimate you deliver to create your baseline
budget.
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ARES Prism™ Project Manager
When KbProc™ definition is complete and analysis is done the estimate is exported to Excel®
and Prism™ Project Manager can directly load the dataset to create the baseline budget for cost
control of the project. During execution of the export the complete dataset is mapped to your
corporate COA which is loaded in Prism™ Project Manager.
Figure 2 illustrates the basic workflow process and software tools that are described above and
used in the case study. The relationship between the workflow element and the software tool is
shown by the dotted line. Creation of the estimate is done using Kbase™ and KbProc™, and
Prism™ Project Manager generates the baseline budget from the estimate and does all the cost
control.
Workflow
Software Tools
Create Estimate
Kbase™
Baseline Budget
KbProc™
Cost Control
Prism™ Project Manager
Figure 2 - Basic Workflow Process and Software Tools
Although the workflow described above is simple, each of the three software applications or tools
plays an integral part in the overall solution. Complex system solutions that are problem domain
(industry) specific are very often developed using the best-of-breed software applications that are
integrated to produce the overall solution. Proper assessment of each application and a clear
understanding of the integration paradigm are necessary in order to design the complete system
that solves your particular problem.
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2.5 Solution
The KbProc™ system is architected to be the container for the Kbase™ user databases. The
exported Microsoft® Access mdb files are loaded into the system and stored in a corporate SQL
Server database for data integrity and security. The data flow model for the case study solution is
shown in Figure 3.
Other Costs
KbaseTM
Excel® Format
Export
KbaseTM User Databases
Load
Load
Process,
document,
analyze.
KbProcTM
Excel®
Export
Import
Prism™ Project Manager
SQL Server Database
Baseline budget,
cost control
Figure 3 – Solution Dataflow Model
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Experienced estimators can work with the data in KbProc™ to analyze cost sensitivities, review
metrics and perform risk analysis to better understand contingency. To reiterate custom data
processing logic can be specified to distribute costs to user-defined cost elements or to exclude
certain blocks of data all together. Consolidated MTOs can be exported for review, and custom
metrics can be defined. As the estimate evolves the system manages each version and estimate and
database comparisons can be done to quantify the changes. Data records are mapped to the project
code of accounts (COA) during creation of the Prism™ export file (Excel®) which can then be
directly loaded into PPE or PPM.
Multi-billion dollar capital projects are more easily managed by using systems that promote
consistent process, and KbProc™ as part of the larger solution can assist in these considerable
estimating efforts.
2.6 Results
Data processing using the initial release of KbProc™ clearly illustrates the potential utility for
such a system and the value of effective data processing. After initial setup of the COA mapping
table and data processing criteria the KbProc™ specialist working with the cost estimate lead can
quickly load the Kbase™ user databases into the system and generate reports for review. Other
costs are defined in the system, and the user has the ability to define these costs as functional
relationships of other costs. Cost sensitivity, metrics and risk analysis tools are part of the system
and give the estimator confidence in the dataset being generated. The Prism™ export file is
created at the click of a button and can be directly loaded into Prism™ Project Manager. When the
original Kbase™ project files are modified, a new estimate is easily created in KbProc™ and the
new user databases can be loaded. All the original estimate setup is retained, and comparisons can
be done to show the impact of the changes.
2.7 Interpretation
Clearly it is possible to process data more effectively with sound processes and capable tools. Data
model and process consistency provides for predictable results, and the use of KbProc™ to format
large Kbase™ datasets for load into Prism™ Project Manager can result in significant workflow
advantages for your organization. Other data streams that are developed outside the system, for
example Excel® worksheets with owner’s costs, are easily formatted and loaded into the
KbProc™ SQL database, and all the power and benefits of the solution are available.
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2.8 Case Study Review of the Seven Suggestions
1. Consistent Coding
The system includes WBS and COA definitions which are applied to each data record.
2. Naming Conventions
The system through its flexible cost element definition and standardized data organization
inherently enforces basic naming conventions.
3. Structured Data
All system data is stored in a hierarchical database that enforces data integrity through the
defined data relationships.
4. Single Source of Data
The single source of data is the database server where all estimating data resides and security
of the data is enforced.
5. Defined Processes
The system allows for definition of the business logic by allowing the user to input the data
processing rules that are sequentially applied during processing.
6. Separate Data and Presentation
The system is designed using standard three-tier application architecture that separates data
from logic from presentation.
7. Think Quality
Quality of the system data is achieved by automating the business rules and providing
consistent mechanisms for outputting results.
2.9 Conclusions
Industry solutions are developed by carefully analyzing the specific problem you are trying to
solve and applying creative thinking to design a system that produces the desired result. An indepth understanding of technology is needed in order to accurately scrutinize each commercialoff-the-shelf (COTS) software package that is under consideration to be a part of a larger solution.
More importantly, an in-depth understanding of the problem domain is necessary. Effective data
processing can be realized when software systems are thoughtfully deployed within an
organization, and the long-term benefits to the organization are significant.
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3. Benefits of Using Software Tools for Data Processing
•
•
•
Standardized systems ensure processing consistency with reproducible results.
A single source of data and model consistency improves data quality and gives you the
ability to effectively secure, manage and benefit from your information assets.
Quality software allows you to manage increasing demands on time with fewer
resources, and you are better able to compete.
The system described in the case study above uses a combination of enabling technologies as the
cornerstones of the estimating solution. Kbase™, KbProc™ and Prism™ Project Manager each
provide key functionally that forms the overall system, and these software applications have many
common attributes which are easily summarized as fast, accurate, consistent and powerful.
FAST
Quickly review, analyze and process estimate data.
ACCURATE
Create and deliver detailed estimates with confidence.
CONSISTENT
Structured input and flexible algorithms produces consistent detailed output.
POWERFUL
User defined data processing model ensures consistency and reproducible results.
Well-architected solutions provide the framework for organizing the relationships between data
and form the basis for further incremental development based on successively more detailed
descriptions of the business processes which ultimately become the logic for the system. These
solutions evolve and help organizations realize their corporate objectives and strategies.
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4. References
1. Aspen Technology, Inc (April 2005). Icarus Reference Icarus Evaluation Engine (IEE)
2004.1
2. Aspen Technology, Inc (April 2005). Aspen Kbase 2004.1 User Guide
3. ARES Corporation, (2006). Prism Project Manager Version 5.0b, Build 246, Enterprise
Application and Help File.
4. Walpole, Ronald E., Myers, Raymond H., (1989). Probability and Statistics for Engineers
and Scientists. Fourth Edition, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.
5. Rubinstein, Reuven Y. (1981). Simulation and The Monte Carlo Method. John Wiley &
Sons, Inc., New York.
6. Dean, Edwin B., Wood, Darrell A., Moore, Arlene A., Bogart, Edward H. (1986). Cost
Risk Analysis on Perception of the Engineering Process. International Society of
Parametric Analysts.
7. Lorance, Randal B., Wendling, Robert V. (1999). Basic Techniques for Analyzing and
Presentation of Cost Risk Analysis. AACE International Transactions.
8. Wilson, Scott F., KiZAN Corporation (1999). Analyzing Requirements and Defining
Solution Architectures. Microsoft Press, Penguin Books Canada Limited.
9. Booch, Grady (1994). Object-Oriented Analysis and Design with Applications. Second
Edition, Addison Wesley Longman, Inc. Reading Massachusetts.
10. Date, C.J. (1995). An Introduction to Dataase Systems. Sixth Edition, Addison-Wesley
Publishing Company, Inc., Reading, Massachusetts.
11. Stephens, Ryan K., Plew, Ronald R. (2001). Database Design. Sams Publishing,
Indianapolis, IN.
12. Sherman, Rick (2004). Ten Principles for Increasing the Value of Your Data Warehouse
and Business Intelligence Investments, Athena IT Solutions White Paper
13. AACE International (2004). Edited by Dr.Scott J. Amos, PE, Skills & Knowledge of Cost
Engineering. 5th Edition, Morgantown, WV.
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5. Acronyms
BI
COA
COM
COTS
DBA
EVMS
KbProc
MTO
PPE
PPM
SQL
WBS
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Business Intelligence
Code of Accounts
Component Object Model
Commercial-off-the-Shelf
Database Administrator
Earned Value Management System
Knowledge Based Processing
Material Take Off
Prism Project Estimator
Prism Project Manager
Structured Query Language
Work Breakdown Structure
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