Lecture 2 - School of Computer Science and Statistics

advertisement
Management for Engineers
Lecture 2
School of Computer Science & Statistics
Trinity College Dublin
Dublin 2
Ireland
www.scss.tcd.ie
4E1 Project Management for Engineers - Lecture 2
1
The Tools of Project Management
 Lay the ground work
 List the success criteria, all drivers, constraints
and freedoms
 Don’t commit to things you can’t deliver
 Planning
 Write it down! & use best practice
 Estimate the project
 Be realistic then plan for contingencies
 Track your progress
 Be open and honest - don’t shoot messengers!
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
2
What makes the difference?
 Management
 Leadership
 Politics
 Communications
 Interpersonal dynamics
 Group dynamics
 Personal psychology
 Group Psychology
 Power
 Organisation
 Decision Making
 Judgement
 Risk
 Relationships
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
3
Dealing with Ambiguity
 “Managers are not confronted with problems
that are independent of each other, but with
dynamic situations that consist of changing
problems that interact with each other. I call
such situations messes. Managers do not
solve problems: they manage messes.”
 Russell Ackoff
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
4
Basic Tools
 People!
 Teamwork, communication skills, motivation,
conflict resolution skills
 Will consume most of your time as a PM
 Critical for your career development
 Resources
 Money, equipment, etc
 Time
 deadlines, milestones, etc
 Project Scope
 Goals and standards
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
5
The 3 basic levers on a project
 Time
 Cost
 Quality
Scope / Specification
Can only control at most 2
at any onetime…..
People
They are all linked…via people
TRADE-OFFS
Cost
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Time
6
Step 1 Define the Project
 How is success defined?
 Make sure that the stake holders have a
common definition of success!
 Wedding Planner
 Bride, Groom, Brides Mother, hotel staff, guests……
 Factory build
 Client Company, Construction Company, Government,
Local Authority, Local Community groups,
Construction staff...
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
7
Stakeholder management
 Not all stakeholders are equal
 Focus on the most powerful
 Try to see project from stakeholder’s
viewpoint
 Communicate with stake holders early and
often
 Caveat: don’t over communicate - have
something to say that impacts the receiver
 Only promise what you can deliver!
 Integrity, honesty, buy-in
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
8
Step 1: Have Clear Goals
 Problem Definition
 Describe problem / opportunity
 Goal Definition
 Describe project Goal
 Objective definition
 Quantify the benefits from the project
 Outline the costs
 Outline the duration
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
9
Step 2: Break down the project
 Break the project down
 Break into tasks
 Break tasks into sub-tasks
 Define deliverables for the sub task
 These must be specific and measurable
 otherwise go to 1
 Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
 Work Packages, Tasks, Sub-tasks,…
 Levels depends on scale of project
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
10
Step: 3 Understand Dependencies
 Estimate
 The actions required to deliver deliver goal
 The time and resources for each sub-task
 Work out the dependencies between tasks
 Resource Dependency
 Sequence or Time Dependency
 Personnel Dependency
 Look for opportunities to optimise:
 Independent tasks that can run in parallel
 Share resources between tasks
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
11
Planning
 *hit Happens!,.. things change
 Planning is not an event it is a constant activity
 But don’t build in contingency to task estimates
this should be an explicit step at the end
 Top Down - target driven
 “build the product in time for launch at Widget
Industry trade-show in 6 months….”
 Bottom up - task driven
 “we want you to design and build a widget that
does X,Y and Z”
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
12
More Depth...
 Standard task lists
 Work breakdown structure
 Work package
 Coding system
 Responsibility matrix
 Quality management
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
13
Standard Tasks: Example
 From Microsoft Project template:
General conditions
Long lead procurement
Mobilise on site:
install temporary power supply
install temporary water supply
set up site office
set line and grade benchmarks
prepare site – lay down yard and trim
Site grading and utilities
Foundations
Steel erection
Form and pour concrete floors and roof
Carpentry work
Masonry work
Roofing
Window wall and store front closures
Building finishes
Elevators
Plumbing
Electrical
Heating and ventilation
Final clear up and occupancy
Complete final inspections
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
14
Standard Tasks: Example 2
 Tasks for software development projects








Feasibility assessment
Requirements analysis
System design
Programming
Unit testing
System testing
Acceptance testing
Implementation
 Tasks often formalised in development
methodologies (e.g. SSADM, DSDM, RUP)
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
15
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
 Divide the work into coherent steps
 Decompose each task into ~ 7±2 subtasks




Creates a hierarchical (inverted tree) structure
Aids understanding
Too few: deep hierarchy
Too many: shallow hierarchy
 Stop when it is detailed enough
 Typically 2-4 sub-levels
 Depends on purpose, audience, etc.
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
16
WBS Terminology
 Four levels commonly found
Large Level
Stage
Description
Major block of work
May have sign off or payment
on completion
Major segment of a phase
Activity
Coherent block of work
Phase
Small Task
Specific short-term action
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Example
Design and build
prototype
Set up machine tools
Obtain funding
Put up walls
Build data model
Painting
Arranging machine hire
17
Software Procurement (cont.)
2. Seek Information from
Package Suppliers
2.1 Prepare request for information
2.1.1 Prepare preliminary view of information to be supplied
2.1.2 Design/agree format for responses
2.1.3 Review with relevant parties
2.1.4 Draw up formal document
2.2 Identify list of potential suppliers
2.2.1 Check trade directories
2.2.2 Check what competitors are using
2.2.4 Seek advice from the Auditors
2.3 Initial contact to ascertain interest
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
18
WBS Quality Criteria
 Verb-object task naming (e.g. “Fit windows”)
 Minimise task description ambiguity
 Clear Task numbering: 1, 1.1, 1.1.1 etc.
 Check for Completeness
 correct overall scope, no gaps
 Minimise of scope overlap between tasks
 Optimise Task order
 Advice: “breadth-first decomposition”
 Cover whole project first (7 phases)
 Then decompose each in same manner (etc.)
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
19
Tasks
 Definition:
 “…related products and functions brought
together… parcels of work which can be
individually planned, resourced and costed …
the smallest entities to carry costs at a project
level.” (BS 6046)
 Signed off by PM and person responsible
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
20
Task Description
 Must state:







Definition of work
Deliverable
Who is responsible for its delivery
Key dates
Resources committed
Cost, if applicable
Milestones, if applicable
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
21
Assigning Responsibilities
 Clarity is VERY VERY important
 Verbal and written “Signing up”(taking ownership)
 Delivery vs Approval
 Use roles, not names





Project manager
Team leader
Engineer
Administrator
Manager etc.
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
22
Responsibility Matrix
Responsibility
WBS
Subproject
Project Office
Task
Project
Manager
Contract
Admin
Project
Engineer
Field Office
Industrial
Engineer
Field Manager
A1
Determine
need
A2
A3
Seek
quotations
B1
Write
C1
appropriation
C2
request
C3
Responsible
Approval
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Notification
Support
23
A More Detailed Matrix
1 = Actual responsibility 3 = Must be consulted 5 = Must be notified
2 = General supervision 4 = May be consulted 6 = Final approval
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
24
Activity Coding
 Keep track of thousands of tasks/items
 Example from radio transmitter construction
project:
 Bobbin type 110-2211
used on
 Transformer
used on
 Modulator type 110-220
used on
 Transmitter type 110-200
used on
 Radio project 110-0000
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
110–2211
110–2210
110–2200
110–2000
110–0000
25
Activity Coding
 Keep track of thousands of tasks/items
 Example from radio transmitter construction
project:
 Bobbin type 110-2211
used on
 Transformer
used on
 Modulator type 110-220
used on
 Transmitter type 110-200
used on
 Radio project 110-0000
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
110–2211
110–2210
110–2200
110–2000
110–0000
25
Accounting Cost Coding
04-07-A2-44-03-322-123-533
Company
Division
Department
Cost
Task
Centre Project
Jaguar
Engine
Main cost
heading
Design
Modification
Drawings of AJ-V6
engine
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Sub cost
heading
Fred
Smith
Engineering
salaries
Preliminary
drawings
26
Code Design
 Codes can represent many things
 e.g. department or person responsible, start date,
location, parts, manufacturer, …
 Good code design important
 Should be logical, minimal, flexible, …
 Don’t create future problems
 e.g. allowing only 1 digit in code for > 10 items
 Some important coding systems:
 International Standard Book Number (ISBN)
 European article numbering system (EAN)
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
27
4E1 Project Management
 Planning 2
Estimating and Scheduling
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
28
Key Concepts
 Estimating
 Scheduling
 Gantt charts
 Network notations
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
29
Estimation Exercise
 Take a blank sheet of paper
 Divide it into five columns as follows:
# BEST GUESS
1
2
UPPER ESTIMATE
LOWER ESTIMATE
.
.
.
9
10
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
30
Estimation Exercise
 Take a blank sheet of paper
 Divide it into five columns as follows:
# BEST GUESS
1
2
UPPER ESTIMATE
LOWER ESTIMATE
.
.
.
9
10
There should be ten rows to write on.
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
30
Test Your General Knowledge
 For each item, write (a) best guess and (b)
upper and lower estimates that you are 90%
confident of.
1. Distance in miles from Moscow to Santiago (in Chile)
2. Gold medals won by Finland in summer Olympics 1896-1992
3. Area of Greenland in square miles
4. Year the ballpoint pen was invented
5. Year the HJ Heinz company was founded
6. Population of Belize in 1990
7. Denmark’s GNP in $US in 1989
8. Year that Louis Braille was born
9. Average depth of Pacific ocean to nearest 1,000 feet
10.Length in miles of the river Danube
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
31
Answers










Distance from Moscow to Santiago is 10,118 miles
Finland won 97 gold medals in summer Olympics 1896-1992
The area of Greenland is 839,781 square miles
The ballpoint pen was invented in 1938
The HJ Heinz company was founded in 1876
The population of Belize in 1990 was 187,000
Denmark’s GNP in $US in 1989 was $105,238 million
Louis Braille was born in 1809
The Pacific ocean is 14,000 feet deep on average
The river Danube is 1,770 miles long
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
32
Why are Estimates So Often Wrong?
 Internal causes
 Psychology: over-confidence, optimism, ego
 Misjudgement: inexperience, uniqueness of project
 Failure to learn from previous projects
 External pressures
 Management pressure, sales imperative
 Other causes
 Political games, inadequate specifications, unclear
objectives
 Rarely, bad luck
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
33
Example: Software Estimating
 How many steps in this C program to convert
Fahrenheit to Celsius?
#define LOWER 0
#define UPPER 300
#define STEP
20
main()
{
int fahr;
for (fahr=LOWER; fahr<=UPPER; fahr=fahr+STEP)
print(“%4d %6.1f\n”,fahr,(5.0/9.0*(fahr-32))
}
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
34
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Experts’ Estimates
No. of Experts
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
35
Estimating – Broad Strategies
 Bases
 Experience, similar work in previous projects
 Detailed breakdown/WBS
 Heuristics e.g. function points
 Types
 Ballpark, comparative, feasibility, detailed
 Top-down vs bottom-up
 Risks
 Theoretical versus actual resource costs
 Cumulative effect of small errors
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
36
Scheduling: Context
Acts of
God
External Factors
Fiscal
Policy
Working factors
Technical
capability
Attitudes
and culture
Resources
and capacity
Corporate
Strategy
Market
Conditions
Supporting
Services
Planning
and
Scheduling
Organisation
structure
Statutory
Regulations
Communications
Procedures
and systems
Management
skills
Contribution to results
Quality
Time
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Profit
37
The Bar (Gantt) Chart
Henry Gantt
Implicit
dependency
Task
Time
Design
Purchase
materials
Overlap
Set up
Lag
Manufacture
Test
Explicit
dependency
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
38
9
Typical GANTT chart
September 2008
October 2008
WK 39, 21/09
WK 40, 28/09
WK 41, 05/10
WK 42, 12/10
WK 43, 19/10
WorkPackage
Task1
Subtask1.1
1d?
Subtask1.2
3 days
Milestone
Task2
Subtask2.3
Subtask2.1
3 days
1 week
subtask2.4
2 weeks
Subtask2.2
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
1 week
39
WK 44, 26
Task Level
2008
Q1
Q2
2009
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2010
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2
Q4
Engineering
Conceptual
Planning and Control
1m
P.S.; P.E.
Site Assessment
2m
Scope Definition
2.2m
Discipline Support
2.1m
Conceptual Phase Completion
Definition
D.E.; P.E.; P.S.
D.E.; P.E.; P.S.
D.E.; D.; P.E.
D.; C.E.; P.E.; P.S.
3.8m
Design
S.; D.E.; P.E.; D.; C.E.; P.S.
8.9 months
Construction
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
D.; S.; D.E.; P.E.; D.; C.E.; P.S.
12.3 months
40
Sub-task - Specific deliverables!
August 2008
September 2008
October 2008
November 2008
K 34, WK 35, WK 36, WK 37, WK 38, WK 39, WK 40, WK 41, WK 42, WK 43, WK 44, WK 45, WK 46, WK 47, WK 48, WK 49,
Engineering
Conceptual
Planning and Control
Business plan identifying project opportunity
1 week
Define project objective and information needs
P.S.
1 week
P.S.
Identify industry standards for project objectives
1 week
P.E.; P.S.
Develop preliminary conceptual schedule and sta!ng
1 week
P.E.
Initial planning complete
Develop appropriation strategy
1 week
P.S.
Develop management model and sta" plan
1 week
P.S.; P.E.
Site Assessment
2 months
Scope Definition
2.25 months
Discipline Support
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
2.15 months
41
Case Study: MUSC
 Define Project,




Objective,
Targets?
Resources?
Stakeholders?
 WBS - Tasks, Sub Tasks ?
 For Further Study:
 Detailed task estimates
 Build a Gantt Chart in MS Project or similar
 Responsibility Matrix
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
42
MUSC Stakeholders
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
MUSC Stakeholders
 What?
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
MUSC Stakeholders
 What?
 Kids soccer tournament
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
MUSC Stakeholders
 What?
 Kids soccer tournament
 When?
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
MUSC Stakeholders
 What?
 Kids soccer tournament
 When?
 This Summer
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
MUSC Stakeholders
 What?
 Kids soccer tournament
 When?
 This Summer
 Why?
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
MUSC Stakeholders
 What?
 Kids soccer tournament
 When?
 This Summer
 Why?
 Raise $50K - $70K
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
MUSC Stakeholders
 What?
 Kids soccer tournament
 When?
 This Summer
 Why?
 Raise $50K - $70K
 Who Cares?
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
MUSC Stakeholders
 What?
 Kids soccer tournament
 When?
 This Summer
 Why?
 Raise $50K - $70K
 Who Cares?
 MUSC board, Organising committee, Volunteers,
Referees, Visiting Teams, Local Sponsors, Local
Colleges, Vendors...
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
43
One Possible WBS
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
44
Network Diagrams
 Activity on arrow
1
Get up
10
Eat
Breakfast
20
2
3
Go to
college
30
4
2
9
5
1
7
3
6
8
4
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
45
Activity Properties
 Description
 Resources: human, other
 Work/non-work
 Duration
 Dates: earliest start, latest finish
 Dependencies: predecessors, successors
 Other constraints
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
46
Precedence
 Dummy task (dashed line) indicates order
 Node 4 precedes node 5
 Therefore tasks 5 and 8 cannot start until task 3
is complete
2
1
1
3
5
5
8
4
4
3
3
6
4
1
7
2
4
9
5
5
6
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
8
47
2 Types of Network Diagram
 Activity on arrow (most intuitive)
 Arrow diagrams (ADM)
 Critical Path Method (CPM)
 Critical Path Analysis (CPA)
 Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
 Activity on node (suits computers)
 Precedence diagrams (PDM)
 Rare but still used
 Method of potentials (MPM)
 Activities on circular nodes
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
48
Precedence Diagrams
Get up
10
Eat
Breakfast
10
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Go to
College
30
49
Precedence Diagrams - Dummy
Tasks
 Not customary but can be useful
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
50
Exercise
 Redraw this arrow diagram as a PDM (a) with
dummy tasks and (b) without dummy tasks
A
Activity AF
Activity FV
V
Activity FW
W
Activity FX
X
Activity GY
Y
Activity GZ
Z
F
B
Activity BE
C
Activity CE
D
E
Activity DE
G
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
51
Solution (without dummy tasks)
AF
FV
BE
FW
CE
FX
DE
GY
GZ
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
52
Solution (with dummy tasks)
AF
Dummy 1
BE
CE
FV
FW
Dummy 2
DE
FX
GY
GZ
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
53
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Screed Floor
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Screed Floor
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Activity
Code
Screed Floor
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Activity
Code
Screed Floor
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Elapsed
time
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Activity
Code
Screed Floor
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
Elapsed
time
Latest
Start Date
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Activity
Code
Screed Floor
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
Elapsed
time
Latest
Start Date
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Latest
Completion
Date
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Activity
Code
Screed Floor
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
Elapsed
time
Latest
Start Date
Resources
Assigned
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Latest
Completion
Date
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Activity
Code
Screed Floor
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
Earliest
Completion
Date
Elapsed
time
Latest
Start Date
Resources
Assigned
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Latest
Completion
Date
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Activity
Code
Screed Floor
Earliest
Start Date
Earliest
Completion
Date
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
Elapsed
time
Latest
Start Date
Resources
Assigned
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Latest
Completion
Date
54
Network Notations - Example 1
Networks use standard notation as follows:
Activity
Description
Activity
Code
Screed Floor
Duration
Earliest
Start Date
Earliest
Completion
Date
B1.3
D =26 Bus = 35
ES = 2/10 LS = 15/10
EC = 6/11 LC = 23/11
Res = FEB, JH
Elapsed
time
Latest
Start Date
Resources
Assigned
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
Latest
Completion
Date
54
Network Notations - Example 3
Task Description
Task ID
Earliest Start Time
14/11/06
5
Duration
Earliest Finish Time
15/12/06
Latest
Finish
Time
4.2.3 Specify Hardware
Latest
Start
Time
Resources/
Responsibility
3/12/06
JO’D
17
18/1/05
€2,500
0%
Budget
% Complete
Total
Float
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
55
Gantt vs Network
 Both used widely
 Gantt
 Simpler, easier to grasp
 Limited in ability to show dependencies
 Easily cluttered
 Networks
 More meaningful, more information
 Harder to read
 Often large and complex
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
56
Summary: Key Points
 Estimating
 Part science, part art
 Tools help but judgement is required
4E1 Project Management Lecture 2
57
Further Instruction on SimProject
 Please use this link:
 http://www.fissure.com/prepurchaselicense.cfm
 Use "fissure" for the user ID and "letmein" for the password.
Download